小麦生产中农业机械与劳动力替代弹性及地区差异测算
|
摘要
测算农业机械对劳动力的替代效应,不仅可以揭示农业机械化进程的决定因素及未来提升空间,还为粮食生产要素配置效率的提升及转型升级提供政策建议。采用2004—2016年中国小麦种植要素投入与价格数据,将要素价格作为内生解释变量纳入超越对数成本函数模型,利用影子替代弹性测算农业机械对劳动力的替代弹性及区域差异。结果表明:(1)中国农业机械的快速发展及粮食产量的稳步增长,主要源于农机对劳动力的有效替代。但随着农机化水平的提高,替代弹性降低,替代难度加大,小麦机械化进程放缓;(2)继续提高农机化水平:第一,农机补贴仍然是调控的主要有效手段;第二,在机耕、机收普及率较高的情况下,重点提高小麦机播水平,将农机与农艺深度融合,推广精准施肥、机械深施、叶面喷施的等农机设备;(3)空间上替代弹性存在显著差异,替代弹性大于1的地区主要集中北方平原地区,农机对劳动力的替代产生内生增长效应,促进粮食产量提高。而四川和云南地区的替代效应受制于地形条件,替代只能产生水平效应。
Measuring the substitution elasticity of agricultural machinery on labor force can not only reveal the decisive factors in the process of agricultural mechanization,but also provide policy recommendations for improving the allocation efficiency of grain production factors and transformation and upgrading.The paper used the input and price data of wheat planting factors in China from 2004 to2016 to measure the substitution elasticity of agricultural machinery for labor force and regional differences by incorporating the factor price as an endogenous explanatory variable into the transcendental logarithmic cost function model.The results show:(1)the rapid development of agricultural machinery and the steady growth of grain production in China are mainly due to the effective substitution of agricultural machinery for labor force.However,with the improvement of the level of agricultural mechanization,the substitution elasticity decreases,the substitution difficulty increases,and the process of wheat mechanization slows down.(2)Continue to improve the level of agricultural mechanization:first,agricultural machinery subsidies are still the main effective means of regulation and control;second,in the case of high popularization rate of machine farming and machine harvesting,we should focus on improving the level of wheat mechanized sowing.Agricultural machinery and agronomy are deeply integrated to promote precision fertilization,mechanical deep application and foliar spraying and other agricultural machinery equipment.(3)There are significant differences in substitution elasticity in space,and the areas with substitution elasticity greater than 1 mainly concentrate in the northern plain area,where the substitution of agricultural machinery produces endogenous growth effect on labor force and promotes the increase of grain production.The substitution effect in Sichuan and Yunnan is restricted by terrain conditions.Substitution can only produce horizontal effects.
Measuring the substitution elasticity of agricultural machinery on labor force can not only reveal the decisive factors in the process of agricultural mechanization,but also provide policy recommendations for improving the allocation efficiency of grain production factors and transformation and upgrading.The paper used the input and price data of wheat planting factors in China from 2004 to2016 to measure the substitution elasticity of agricultural machinery for labor force and regional differences by incorporating the factor price as an endogenous explanatory variable into the transcendental logarithmic cost function model.The results show:(1)the rapid development of agricultural machinery and the steady growth of grain production in China are mainly due to the effective substitution of agricultural machinery for labor force.However,with the improvement of the level of agricultural mechanization,the substitution elasticity decreases,the substitution difficulty increases,and the process of wheat mechanization slows down.(2)Continue to improve the level of agricultural mechanization:first,agricultural machinery subsidies are still the main effective means of regulation and control;second,in the case of high popularization rate of machine farming and machine harvesting,we should focus on improving the level of wheat mechanized sowing.Agricultural machinery and agronomy are deeply integrated to promote precision fertilization,mechanical deep application and foliar spraying and other agricultural machinery equipment.(3)There are significant differences in substitution elasticity in space,and the areas with substitution elasticity greater than 1 mainly concentrate in the northern plain area,where the substitution of agricultural machinery produces endogenous growth effect on labor force and promotes the increase of grain production.The substitution effect in Sichuan and Yunnan is restricted by terrain conditions.Substitution can only produce horizontal effects.
引文
[1]王盛安,张荣群,艾东,等.中国农业机械化水平区域差异的测度及其空间格局[J].中国农机化学报,2016,37(8):223-228.Wang Shengan,Zhang Rongqun,Ai Dong,et al.Measurement and spatial distribution of Chinese agricultural mechanization levels regional difference[J].Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization,2016,37(8):223-228.
[2]钟甫宁.正确认识粮食安全和农业劳动力成本问题[J].农业经济问题,2016(1):4-9.
[3]Takeshima H.Agricultural mechanization patterns in Nigeria:Insights from farm household typology and agricultural household model simulation[J].IFPRI Discussion Papers,2013.
[4]尹朝静,范丽霞,李谷成.要素替代弹性与中国农业增长[J].华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2014(2):16-23.Yin Chaojing,Fan Lixia,Li Gucheng.Elasticity of substitution of factor and Chinas agricultural growth[J].Journal of South China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition),2014(2):16-23.
[5]李志俊.中国农业要素的替代弹性:人力资本的作用及农业技术变迁[J].财经论丛,2014(7):10-15.Li Zhijun.Substitution elasticity of Chinas agriculture:the role of human capital and technological changes[J].Collected Essays on Finance and Economics,2014(7):10-15.
[6]李红.农业机械替代劳动力的实证分析[J].农业与技术,2008,28(2):111-116.
[7]王欧.农业面源污染的综合防治与补偿机制的建立[A].中国农学会.全国农业面源污染与综合防治学术研讨会论文集[C].中国农学会:中国农学会,2004:6.
[8]胡瑞法,冷燕.中国主要粮食作物的投入与产出研究[J].农业技术经济,2006(3):2-9.Hu Ruifa,Leng Yan.A study on the input and output of major food crops in China[J].Journal of Agrotechnical E-conomics,2006(3):2-9.
[9]尹朝静,范丽霞,李谷成,等.劳动力成本上升背景下油菜生产发展方式转型研究[J].中国农业大学学报,2015,20(6):297-304.Yin Chaojing,Fan Lixia,Li Gucheng,et al.Research on the transformation of rape production mode as the growth of labor cost[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2015,20(6):297-304.
[10]郝枫,盛卫燕.中国要素替代弹性估计[J].统计研究,2014,31(7):12-21.Hao Feng,Sheng Weiyan.Elasticity estimates of factor substitution in China[J].Statistical Research,2014,31(7):12-21.
[11]郝枫.超越对数函数要素替代弹性公式修正与估计方法比较[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015(4):88-105.Hao Feng.Formula correction and estimation methods comparison on elasticity of substitution within translog functions[J].Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,2015(4):88-105.
[12]吴丽丽,李谷成,周晓时.中国粮食生产要素之间的替代关系研究---基于劳动力成本上升的背景[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2016(2):140-148.
[13]黄文芳,John K.Dagsvik.中国化肥需求弹性计算[J].上海农业学报,2012,28(1):86-90.Huang Wenfang,John K.Dagsvik.The elasticity of chemical fertilizer demand in China[J].Acta Agriculture Shanghai,2012,28(1):86-90.
[14]刘恒新,李斯华,侯方安.我国农业机械化结构贡献的测度:方法与数据[J].中国农机化学报,2015,36(3):1-5.Liu Hengxin,Li Sihua,Hou Fangan.Measurement of structural contribution to the agricultural mechanization in China[J].Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization,2015,36(3):1-5.
[15]杨发展,李维华,李建东,等.农机农艺高度融合的基础在标准化---以山东玉米机械化生产为例[J].中国农机化学报,2018,39(9):100-103.Yang Fazhan,Li Weihua,Li Jiandong,et al.High integration foundation of agricultural machinery and agronomy based on standardization:a case study of the mechanization of maize production in Shandong Province[J].Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization,2018,39(9):100-103.
[16]金雪婷,曹光乔.农用地平整工程与农机作业的关系综述[J].中国农机化学报,2018,39(3):97-102.Jin Xueting,Cao Guangqiao.Review on relationship between farmland leveling engineering and agricultural machinery operation[J].Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization,2018,39(3):97-102.
[17]刘涛.河南省农业机械化效率的空间差异及其驱动机制[J].中国农机化学报,2016,37(6):274-279.Liu Tao.Spatial differences and its driving mechanism of the efficiency of agricultural mechanization in Henan province[J].Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization,2016,37(6):274-279.
[2]钟甫宁.正确认识粮食安全和农业劳动力成本问题[J].农业经济问题,2016(1):4-9.
[3]Takeshima H.Agricultural mechanization patterns in Nigeria:Insights from farm household typology and agricultural household model simulation[J].IFPRI Discussion Papers,2013.
[4]尹朝静,范丽霞,李谷成.要素替代弹性与中国农业增长[J].华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2014(2):16-23.Yin Chaojing,Fan Lixia,Li Gucheng.Elasticity of substitution of factor and Chinas agricultural growth[J].Journal of South China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition),2014(2):16-23.
[5]李志俊.中国农业要素的替代弹性:人力资本的作用及农业技术变迁[J].财经论丛,2014(7):10-15.Li Zhijun.Substitution elasticity of Chinas agriculture:the role of human capital and technological changes[J].Collected Essays on Finance and Economics,2014(7):10-15.
[6]李红.农业机械替代劳动力的实证分析[J].农业与技术,2008,28(2):111-116.
[7]王欧.农业面源污染的综合防治与补偿机制的建立[A].中国农学会.全国农业面源污染与综合防治学术研讨会论文集[C].中国农学会:中国农学会,2004:6.
[8]胡瑞法,冷燕.中国主要粮食作物的投入与产出研究[J].农业技术经济,2006(3):2-9.Hu Ruifa,Leng Yan.A study on the input and output of major food crops in China[J].Journal of Agrotechnical E-conomics,2006(3):2-9.
[9]尹朝静,范丽霞,李谷成,等.劳动力成本上升背景下油菜生产发展方式转型研究[J].中国农业大学学报,2015,20(6):297-304.Yin Chaojing,Fan Lixia,Li Gucheng,et al.Research on the transformation of rape production mode as the growth of labor cost[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2015,20(6):297-304.
[10]郝枫,盛卫燕.中国要素替代弹性估计[J].统计研究,2014,31(7):12-21.Hao Feng,Sheng Weiyan.Elasticity estimates of factor substitution in China[J].Statistical Research,2014,31(7):12-21.
[11]郝枫.超越对数函数要素替代弹性公式修正与估计方法比较[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015(4):88-105.Hao Feng.Formula correction and estimation methods comparison on elasticity of substitution within translog functions[J].Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,2015(4):88-105.
[12]吴丽丽,李谷成,周晓时.中国粮食生产要素之间的替代关系研究---基于劳动力成本上升的背景[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2016(2):140-148.
[13]黄文芳,John K.Dagsvik.中国化肥需求弹性计算[J].上海农业学报,2012,28(1):86-90.Huang Wenfang,John K.Dagsvik.The elasticity of chemical fertilizer demand in China[J].Acta Agriculture Shanghai,2012,28(1):86-90.
[14]刘恒新,李斯华,侯方安.我国农业机械化结构贡献的测度:方法与数据[J].中国农机化学报,2015,36(3):1-5.Liu Hengxin,Li Sihua,Hou Fangan.Measurement of structural contribution to the agricultural mechanization in China[J].Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization,2015,36(3):1-5.
[15]杨发展,李维华,李建东,等.农机农艺高度融合的基础在标准化---以山东玉米机械化生产为例[J].中国农机化学报,2018,39(9):100-103.Yang Fazhan,Li Weihua,Li Jiandong,et al.High integration foundation of agricultural machinery and agronomy based on standardization:a case study of the mechanization of maize production in Shandong Province[J].Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization,2018,39(9):100-103.
[16]金雪婷,曹光乔.农用地平整工程与农机作业的关系综述[J].中国农机化学报,2018,39(3):97-102.Jin Xueting,Cao Guangqiao.Review on relationship between farmland leveling engineering and agricultural machinery operation[J].Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization,2018,39(3):97-102.
[17]刘涛.河南省农业机械化效率的空间差异及其驱动机制[J].中国农机化学报,2016,37(6):274-279.Liu Tao.Spatial differences and its driving mechanism of the efficiency of agricultural mechanization in Henan province[J].Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization,2016,37(6):274-279.