西藏终碛堤冰湖溃决预警模型的初步研究
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- 英文论文题名：A Preliminary Study on the Prediction Model of the Outburst of Moraine Dam with Glacial Lake in Tibet
- 论文作者：余斌 ; 刘秧 ; 刘晶晶
- 英文论文作者：Yu Bin ; Liu Yang ; Liu Jingjing ; State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection ; Chengdu University of Technology ; Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment ; CAS
- 年：2016
- 作者机构：成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室;中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所;
- 论文关键词：西藏 ; 终碛堤 ; 溃坝 ; 冰湖 ; 预警模型
- 英文论文关键词：Tibet ; moraine dam ; dam outburst ; glacial lake ; prediction
- 会议召开时间：2016-10-14
- 会议录名称：“川藏铁路建设的挑战与对策”2016学术交流会论文集
- 语种：中文
- 分类号：P694;U216.41
- 学会代码：ZGTD
- 会议名称：“川藏铁路建设的挑战与对策”2016学术交流会
- 会议地点：中国四川成都
- 主办单位：中国铁道学会、中国铁道学会工程分会、中国中铁股份有限公司、中铁二院工程集团有限责任公司
- 学会名称：中国铁道学会
- 页数：6
- 文件大小：585k
- 原文格式：O
- 会议级别：全国
摘要
西藏地区的冰湖溃决灾害往往造成规模巨大的泥石流,不仅会毁坏公路铁路,还往往堵塞江河,再溃决形成灾害链。川藏铁路的建设迫切需要有效的冰湖溃决预警方法。西藏地区的终碛堤冰湖溃决是该区域最主要的冰湖溃决形式,溃决原因主要是冰湖上游冰川前缘的冰舌断裂进入冰湖造成终碛堤溃决。本文通过研究西藏地区11个溃决终碛堤冰湖及周边51个未溃决终碛堤冰湖(均满足终碛堤冰湖溃决的冰湖面积条件)上游冰川的冰舌坡度、冰川坡向、冰川面积等冰川条件,以及溃决前7 d的温度和、有效积温、前期温度、多年平均积温等激发条件,初步建立了基于上述7个因素的西藏终碛堤冰湖溃决预警模型,并分别提出了有降雨和无降雨条件下的2个临界判据值,临界判据值将冰湖溃决的可能性划分为小、中、大3种可能性。冰湖溃决预警模型和临界判据的研究为川藏铁路沿线防灾减灾提供了一个新的方法。
The outburst of moraine dam with glacial lake always cause giant debris flows and the consequence are giant lost not only in the high ways,but also in the railways of future.The prediction model of the outburst of moraine dam with glacial lake is needed for the future Sichuan-Tibet railway.The outburst of moraine dam with glacial lake is the typical style of dam outburst in Tibet.The main reason of the dam outburst is the front part of glacier which locating in the rear of lake falling into the lake.In this paper,11 outburst moraine dams and 51 without outburst moraine dams which locating in the vicinity of outburst dams were researched.These glacial lakes and glaciers are satisfied the basic conditions of areas of lake,distances from glacier to lake for dam outburst.With the conditions of glacier such as the slope of the front part of glacier,the surface direction of glacier,and the area of glacier,and the conditions of triggering such as the sum of temperature of 7 days before dam outburst,the efficient accumulated temperature,the antecedent temperature,and the average temperature,a preliminary prediction model of the outburst of moraine dam with glacial lake was obtained.The threshold values for possibility of dam outburst are two values for no rainfall,another two values for rainfall condition.The threshold values divided the possibility of dam outburst into three areas:high possibility,moderate possibility,and low possibility.The prediction model for moraine dam outburst provides a new method for the hazards mitigation along the Sichuan-Tibet railway.
The outburst of moraine dam with glacial lake always cause giant debris flows and the consequence are giant lost not only in the high ways,but also in the railways of future.The prediction model of the outburst of moraine dam with glacial lake is needed for the future Sichuan-Tibet railway.The outburst of moraine dam with glacial lake is the typical style of dam outburst in Tibet.The main reason of the dam outburst is the front part of glacier which locating in the rear of lake falling into the lake.In this paper,11 outburst moraine dams and 51 without outburst moraine dams which locating in the vicinity of outburst dams were researched.These glacial lakes and glaciers are satisfied the basic conditions of areas of lake,distances from glacier to lake for dam outburst.With the conditions of glacier such as the slope of the front part of glacier,the surface direction of glacier,and the area of glacier,and the conditions of triggering such as the sum of temperature of 7 days before dam outburst,the efficient accumulated temperature,the antecedent temperature,and the average temperature,a preliminary prediction model of the outburst of moraine dam with glacial lake was obtained.The threshold values for possibility of dam outburst are two values for no rainfall,another two values for rainfall condition.The threshold values divided the possibility of dam outburst into three areas:high possibility,moderate possibility,and low possibility.The prediction model for moraine dam outburst provides a new method for the hazards mitigation along the Sichuan-Tibet railway.
引文
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[10]崔鹏,马东涛,陈宁生,等.冰湖溃决泥石流的形成、演化与减灾对策[J].第四纪研究,2003,23(6):621-628.Cui Peng,Ma Dongtao,Chen Ningsheng,et al.The initiation,motion and mitigation of debris flow caused by glacial lake outburst[J].Quaternary Sciences,2003,23(6):621-628.
[2]Robin J.,McKillop J.,et al.Aprocedure for making objectiv preliminary assessments of outburst flood hazard from moraindammed lakes in southwestern British Columbia[J].Nat Hazards,2006,41(10):131-157.
[3]刘晶晶,唐川,程尊兰,等.气温对西藏冰湖溃决事件的影响[J].吉林大学学报:地球科学版,201,41(4):1121-1129.Liu Jingjing,Tang Chuan,Cheng Zunlan,et al.Impact of temperature on glacier-lake outbursts in TibetfJ].Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition),2011,41(4):1121-1129.
[4]刘健康,程尊兰,郭芬芬,等.藏东南典型冰湖溃决危险性分析[J].灾害学,2011,26(2):45-49.Liu Jiankang,Cheng Zunlan,Guo Fenfen,et al.Analysis on risk of glacier-lake outburst in southeastern Tibet[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2011,26(2):45-49.
[5]刘伟.西藏典型冰湖溃决型泥石流的初步研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2006(3):88-92.Liu Wei,Preliminary study on debris flow induced by glacier lake outburst in Tibet[J].Hydrogeology&Engineering Geology,2006(3):88-92.
[6]徐道明,冯清华.西藏喜马拉雅山区危险冰湖及其溃决特征[J].地理学报,1989,44(3):343-352.Xu Daoming,Liu Chaohai,Feng Qinghua,Dangerous glacial lake and outburst features in Xizang Himalayas[J].ACTA Geographica SINICA,1989,44(3):343-352.
[7]铁永波,唐川.冰湖溃决评价体系研究进展[J].水科学进展,2009,20(3):448-452.Tie Yongbo,Tang Chuan,Progress in glacier lake outburst assessment system[J].Advances in Water Science,2009,20(3):448-452.
[8]中国科学院,水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,西藏自治区交通厅科学研究所.西藏泥石流与环境[M].成都:成都科技大学出版社,1999.Chengdu Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,CAS,Institute of Transportation Science of Tibet.Debris flow and environment in Tibet[M].Chengdu University of Sciences and Technology Press,1999.
[9]徐道明,冯清华.冰川泥石流与冰湖溃决灾害研究[J].冰川冻土,1988,10(3):284-289.Xu Daoming,Feng Qinghua.Studies on Catastrophes of Glacial Debris flow and Glacial Lake Outburst Flood in China[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,1988,10(3):284-289.
[10]崔鹏,马东涛,陈宁生,等.冰湖溃决泥石流的形成、演化与减灾对策[J].第四纪研究,2003,23(6):621-628.Cui Peng,Ma Dongtao,Chen Ningsheng,et al.The initiation,motion and mitigation of debris flow caused by glacial lake outburst[J].Quaternary Sciences,2003,23(6):621-628.