前景理论在老年公寓投资决策上的应用
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- 论文作者：张炳江
- 年：2016
- 作者机构：北京信息科技大学理学院;
- 论文关键词：多属性决策 ; 前景理论 ; 价值函数 ; 区间数 ; 正态分布 ; 老年公寓
- 英文论文关键词：MADM ; Prospect theory ; Value function ; Interval number ; Normal distribution ; House for the elderly
- 会议召开时间：2016-07-26
- 会议录名称：第十四届中国不确定系统年会、第十八届中国青年信息与管理学者大会论文集
- 语种：中文
- 分类号：F299.23;D669.6
- 学会代码：QHIS
- 会议名称：第十四届中国不确定系统年会第十八届中国青年信息与管理学者大会
- 会议地点：中国陕西渭南
- 主办单位：中国运筹学会不确定系统分会
- 学会名称：清华大学数学科学系
- 页数：5
- 文件大小：372k
- 原文格式：D
- 会议级别：全国
摘要
随着国力及民力的不断提高,家庭的小型化、老年人的居住生活模式和环境问题越发成为人们关心的大事,而对于老年住宅产品,即老年公寓的模式及生活品质的研究尤为必要。前景理论完全可以在决策学中得以实践如何有效地提取、筛选、处理人们心理的信息并使其以数学模型的形式呈现在人们眼前。本文主要探讨的是一种基于累积前景理论的区间数多属性决策方法,即依据价值函数和累积形式的决策函数分别替代预期效用理论的预期效用函数和主观概率模型,其中利用正态分布的分布函数表示区间内准则值的分布规律,最后依据前景值大小排序得到老年公寓的最优决策方案。
With the continuous improvement of national power and manpower, the miniaturization of family, the elderly living style and environment problems become more and more people concerned about the event. For the elderly housing products, the research on the mode of house for the elderly and quality of life is particularly necessary. Prospect theory can be able to practice how to effectively extract, filter, deal with people's psychological information in the decision-making process and make it the form of mathematical model presented in front of people. This paper mainly discusses an interval-number multiple attributes decision making method based on cumulative prospect theory, i.e. according to the value function and thecumulative decision function, they were used to substitute for expected utility function of the expected utility theory of and the subjective probability model, including the use of the distribution function of the normal distribution expressing the interval criterion-value distribution rule, Finally on the basis of the foreground values, they are sorted to obtain the optimal scheme of the decision of investment apartments for the elderly.
With the continuous improvement of national power and manpower, the miniaturization of family, the elderly living style and environment problems become more and more people concerned about the event. For the elderly housing products, the research on the mode of house for the elderly and quality of life is particularly necessary. Prospect theory can be able to practice how to effectively extract, filter, deal with people's psychological information in the decision-making process and make it the form of mathematical model presented in front of people. This paper mainly discusses an interval-number multiple attributes decision making method based on cumulative prospect theory, i.e. according to the value function and thecumulative decision function, they were used to substitute for expected utility function of the expected utility theory of and the subjective probability model, including the use of the distribution function of the normal distribution expressing the interval criterion-value distribution rule, Finally on the basis of the foreground values, they are sorted to obtain the optimal scheme of the decision of investment apartments for the elderly.
引文
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[2]马健,孙秀霞,郭创.基于风险-效益比和前景理论的风险性多属性决策方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2011,33(11):2434-2439.
[3]Tversky A,Kahneman D.Advances in Prospect Theory-Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty[J].Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,1992,(4).
[4]Prelec D.Compound Invariant Weighting Functions in Prospect Theory[C].Choices,Values,and Frames.Cambridge:Cambringe University Press,2000.
[5]刘志云,樊治平.基于前景理论的具有指标期望的多指标决策方法[J].控制与决策,2015,30(1):91-97.
[6]王亮,王应明,胡勃兴.基于前景理论的应急方案动态调整方法[J].控制与决策,2016,31(1):99-104.
[7]丁小东,庄河,等.前景理论对报童决策偏差的适用性[J].控制与决策,2016,31(5):853-862.