不同确定性程度情境中等待对决策的影响
详细信息 查看官网全文
- 英文论文题名：The Effect of Waiting on Decision Making in Situation of Different Degree of Certainty
- 论文作者：张静雅 ; 姜媛 ; 方平
- 英文论文作者：Zhang Jingya ; Jiang Yuan ; Fang Ping ; Laboratory of Emotion ; Department of Psychology ; College of Education ; Capital Normal University ; Division of Sport Psychology ; Beijing Sport University
- 年：2015
- 作者机构：首都师范大学教育学院心理系情绪实验室;北京体育大学运动心理学教研室;
- 论文关键词：不确定性情境 ; 决策 ; 等待 ; 不确定性容忍度
- 英文论文关键词：Uncertain Situation ; Decision Making ; Waiting ; Intolerance of Uncertainty
- 会议召开时间：2015-10-16
- 会议录名称：第十八届全国心理学学术会议摘要集——心理学与社会发展
- 英文会议录名称：Proceedings of the 18th National Academic Congress of Psychology
- 语种：中文
- 分类号：C912.6
- 学会代码：ZGXG
- 会议名称：第十八届全国心理学学术会议
- 会议地点：中国天津
- 主办单位：中国心理学会
- 学会名称：中国心理学会
- 页数：2
- 文件大小：788k
- 原文格式：D
- 会议级别：全国
摘要
等待和不确定性对决策有至关重要的影响,但是以往研究并没有得到一致的结果。为了探讨决策过程中的等待心理及个体的不确定性容忍度(IU)对等待心理的作用,本研究采用经典的选课情境研究范式、选用无不确定性容忍度量表把被试分为高IU个体和低IU个体,把选课情境分为确定性、较确定性(2种)和不确定性四种情境,并通过广告形式有偿招募60名本科学生进行实验。结果表明确定性情境中选择等待的人数最多(70%),随着确定性程度降低,到高不确定性情境中选择等待的人下降到了一半多(33.3%)(X~2(3)=8.536,p<.05),66.7%的人选择立即做出决策以避免消极情绪。而个体的不确定性容忍度只对高不确定性情境中决策中的等待有影响(X~2(2)=8.54,p<0.05),对较确定的情境没有影响(X~2(2)=.48,p>0.05;X~2(2)=2.67,p>0.05;X~2(2)=1.44,p>0.05)。也就是说在高不确定性情境下,高IU的个体不能等待太长时间急于作出决策,能够忍受不确定性的个体能够等待较长时间做出决策。表明高IU的个体不愿意在不确定的状态中等待,而且价值更高的奖励需要延迟才能得到,这一点也放大了对不确定性的消极情绪反应。因此,IU会影响个体的决策行为,高IU的个体更倾向于选择眼前利益而不是做出最正确的决策。随着情境确定性程度下降,在决策中选择等待的人数降低。而且只有在高不确定性情境中,即等待时间不确定性和能否等到确定信息未知的情况下,高IU的个体比低IU的个体更容易选择立即做出决策。
Waiting and uncertainty have greatly influence to decision making, but past studies had not got correspondent result. To explore the waiting in decision making process and the effect of individual trait of Intolerance of Uncertainty(IU), we recruited 60 college students, used classical course of selection situation research paradigm,with three levles and four kinds of selection situation(certain, less certain and uncertain), and adopted the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale,(IUS) dividing the people into high IU and low IU.Results indicated that most people chose to wait in certainty situation, and as the levle of certainty reducing, the number of people who chose to wait before fell to merely half(X~2(3)=8.536,p<.05)and 66.7% of people chose to make a decision immediately to avoid negative emotions. And IU only had effects on waiting in higher uncertainty situation(X~2(2)=8.54,p<0.05)and almost uneffective in lower uncertainty situation(X~2(2)=.48,p>0.05;X~2(2)=2.67,p>0.05;X~2(2)=1.44,p>0.05). That is, in higher uncertainty situation, people who had high level of IU could not wait too long before their decision making, however, people with lower intolerance could wait longer. Suggesting that high IU individuals were not willing to wait in a state of uncertainty, and the delay before getting higher reward also magnified the negative emotional reactions to uncertainty. Therefore, IU does influence people's decision making, High IU individuals prefer immediate interests rather than make the right decisions. People choosing to wait reduced with the decrease of certainty. And only in high uncertainty situation, with waiting time unknown and information uncertain, high IU individuals were more likely to make a decision immediately,
Waiting and uncertainty have greatly influence to decision making, but past studies had not got correspondent result. To explore the waiting in decision making process and the effect of individual trait of Intolerance of Uncertainty(IU), we recruited 60 college students, used classical course of selection situation research paradigm,with three levles and four kinds of selection situation(certain, less certain and uncertain), and adopted the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale,(IUS) dividing the people into high IU and low IU.Results indicated that most people chose to wait in certainty situation, and as the levle of certainty reducing, the number of people who chose to wait before fell to merely half(X~2(3)=8.536,p<.05)and 66.7% of people chose to make a decision immediately to avoid negative emotions. And IU only had effects on waiting in higher uncertainty situation(X~2(2)=8.54,p<0.05)and almost uneffective in lower uncertainty situation(X~2(2)=.48,p>0.05;X~2(2)=2.67,p>0.05;X~2(2)=1.44,p>0.05). That is, in higher uncertainty situation, people who had high level of IU could not wait too long before their decision making, however, people with lower intolerance could wait longer. Suggesting that high IU individuals were not willing to wait in a state of uncertainty, and the delay before getting higher reward also magnified the negative emotional reactions to uncertainty. Therefore, IU does influence people's decision making, High IU individuals prefer immediate interests rather than make the right decisions. People choosing to wait reduced with the decrease of certainty. And only in high uncertainty situation, with waiting time unknown and information uncertain, high IU individuals were more likely to make a decision immediately,
引文