大型活动雾霾灾害风险分析及风险管理-以纪念抗战胜利阅兵活动气象灾害风险分析为例
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摘要
本文提出在风险识别及区划的基础上,通过风险承受与控制能力的分析,以大型活动风险管理的模式实施雾霾灾害风险评估,为活动的安全服务提供的决策依据。因此需要选用层次分析模型并结合专家打分的方法,评估活动期间雾霾天气的风险承受与控制能力,依据风险承受与控制能力对风险指数进行订正,得到比较贴近真实风险状况的风险值,据此进行风险定级及排序。文章以北京地区2015年纪念抗战胜利阅兵活动期间气象灾害风险评估做个例分析。针对霾雾有可能对活动造成的影响,在风险区划的基础上,完成风险评估及风险承受与控制能力分析。评估发现霾出现的概率很高,风险承受与控制能力较好,为低风险等级。大雾在南部大兴和北部延庆一带出现概率较大,风险为中等。
引文
[1]扈海波,熊亚军,董鹏捷,轩春怡.北京奥运期间(6-9月)气象灾害风险评估.气象出版社,2009.
[2]Levy,J.K.,2005:Multiple criteria decision making and decision support systems for flood risk management.Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess,19:438-447.
[3]Tran,P.,F.Marincioni,R.Shaw,et al.,2008:Flood risk management in Central Viet Nam:challenges and potentials Nat Hazards,46:119-138.DOI 10.1007/s11069-007-9186-2.
[4]Chen,Y.,C.Yeh,and B.Yu,2011:Integrated application of the analytic hierarchy process and the geographic information system for flood risk assessment and flood plain management in Taiwan.Nat Hazards,59:1261-1276.DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9831-7
[5]Chen,C.W.,and C.P.Tseng,2012:Default risk-based probabilistic decision model for risk.Nat Hazards,63:659-671.DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0183-8.
[6]Klijn,F.,J.M.Knoop,W.Ligtvoet,and M.J.P.Mens,2012:In search of robust flood risk management alternatives for the Netherlands.Nat.Hazards Earth Syst.Sci.,12:1469-1479.doi:10.5194/nhess-12-1469-2012.
[7]www.iso.org.rm/Risk management,GUIDE 73.
[8]扈海波,轩春怡,诸立尚.北京地区城市暴雨积涝灾害风险预评估.应用气象学报,2013,24(1):99-108.
[9]Carreno,M.L.,0.D.Cardona,and A.H.Barbat,2007:A disaster risk management performance index.Nat Hazards,41:1-20.DOI 10.1007/s11069-006-9008-y
[10]Smith K.Environmental Hazards:Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster(2~(nd)edition).New York:Routledge,1996.
[11]黄崇福.自然灾害风险评价理论与实践.,科学出版社,2005.
[12]Kaplan,S.,and B.J.Garrick,1981:On The Quantitative Definition of Risk.Risk Analysis,1(1):11-27.
[13]GB/T 27963-2001.中华人民共和国国家标准.人居环境气候舒适度评价.
[14]扈海波,熊亚军,张姝丽.基于城市交通脆弱性核算的大雾灾害风险评估.应用气象学报,2010,21(6):732-738.
[15]谢璞.中国气象灾害大典北京卷.气象出版社,2004.
[16]Hu,H.,J.Wang,and J.Pan,2014:The characteristics of lightning risk and zoning in Beijing simulated by a risk assessment model.Nat.Hazards Earth Syst.Sci.,14,1985-1997.doi:10.5194/nhess-14-1985-2014.
[17]扈海波,王迎春,熊亚军.基于层次分析模型的北京雷电灾害风险评估.自然灾害学报,2010,19(1):104-109.
[18]黄卓,陈辉,田华.高温热浪指标研究.气象,2011,37(3):345-351.
[2]Levy,J.K.,2005:Multiple criteria decision making and decision support systems for flood risk management.Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess,19:438-447.
[3]Tran,P.,F.Marincioni,R.Shaw,et al.,2008:Flood risk management in Central Viet Nam:challenges and potentials Nat Hazards,46:119-138.DOI 10.1007/s11069-007-9186-2.
[4]Chen,Y.,C.Yeh,and B.Yu,2011:Integrated application of the analytic hierarchy process and the geographic information system for flood risk assessment and flood plain management in Taiwan.Nat Hazards,59:1261-1276.DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9831-7
[5]Chen,C.W.,and C.P.Tseng,2012:Default risk-based probabilistic decision model for risk.Nat Hazards,63:659-671.DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0183-8.
[6]Klijn,F.,J.M.Knoop,W.Ligtvoet,and M.J.P.Mens,2012:In search of robust flood risk management alternatives for the Netherlands.Nat.Hazards Earth Syst.Sci.,12:1469-1479.doi:10.5194/nhess-12-1469-2012.
[7]www.iso.org.rm/Risk management,GUIDE 73.
[8]扈海波,轩春怡,诸立尚.北京地区城市暴雨积涝灾害风险预评估.应用气象学报,2013,24(1):99-108.
[9]Carreno,M.L.,0.D.Cardona,and A.H.Barbat,2007:A disaster risk management performance index.Nat Hazards,41:1-20.DOI 10.1007/s11069-006-9008-y
[10]Smith K.Environmental Hazards:Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster(2~(nd)edition).New York:Routledge,1996.
[11]黄崇福.自然灾害风险评价理论与实践.,科学出版社,2005.
[12]Kaplan,S.,and B.J.Garrick,1981:On The Quantitative Definition of Risk.Risk Analysis,1(1):11-27.
[13]GB/T 27963-2001.中华人民共和国国家标准.人居环境气候舒适度评价.
[14]扈海波,熊亚军,张姝丽.基于城市交通脆弱性核算的大雾灾害风险评估.应用气象学报,2010,21(6):732-738.
[15]谢璞.中国气象灾害大典北京卷.气象出版社,2004.
[16]Hu,H.,J.Wang,and J.Pan,2014:The characteristics of lightning risk and zoning in Beijing simulated by a risk assessment model.Nat.Hazards Earth Syst.Sci.,14,1985-1997.doi:10.5194/nhess-14-1985-2014.
[17]扈海波,王迎春,熊亚军.基于层次分析模型的北京雷电灾害风险评估.自然灾害学报,2010,19(1):104-109.
[18]黄卓,陈辉,田华.高温热浪指标研究.气象,2011,37(3):345-351.