系统动力学软件STELLA在渔业生态足迹模拟中的应用
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- 英文论文题名：Application of System Dynamic Software STELLA in Marine Ecological Footprint Simulation
- 论文作者：王子超 ; 晁敏
- 英文论文作者：WANG Zichao ; CHAO Min ; College of Marine Science ; Shanghai Ocean University
- 年：2016
- 作者机构：中国水产科学研究院东海水产研究所;上海海洋大学海洋科学学院;
- 论文关键词：近岸海域 ; 捕捞 ; STELLA软件 ; 渔业生态足迹
- 英文论文关键词：coastal waters ; fishing ; STELLA ; marine ecological footprint
- 会议召开时间：2016-11-02
- 会议录名称：2016年中国水产学会学术年会论文摘要集
- 语种：中文
- 分类号：S932
- 学会代码：OGSB
- 会议名称：2016年中国水产学会学术年会
- 会议地点：中国四川成都
- 主办单位：中国水产学会、四川省水产学会
- 学会名称：中国水产学会
- 页数：1
- 文件大小：504k
- 原文格式：D
- 会议级别：全国
摘要
伴随着海洋渔业的飞速发展,过度捕捞等影响渔业资源可持续利用的问题逐渐暴露出来,影响着海洋生态系统的平衡,如何评价其影响程度是研究可持续发展的重要问题。本文结合系统动力学理论,应用系统动力学模拟软件STELLA建立了近岸海域渔业生态足迹动态模型,利用历史渔业数据验证了该模型的可行性,基于近海主要年份的渔业生态足迹现状,模拟了不同捕捞强度情境下渔业生态足迹及生态赤字的变化情况,对近岸海域的渔业资源的可持续发展程度进行了动态定量评价。分析结果显示,近岸海域在目前捕捞强度下一直处于高生态赤字不可持续状态中,需要适当降低捕捞强度,来减少渔业生态足迹,从而维持海洋生态系统的平衡。该方法以期为政府可持续发展决策者提供借鉴,亦可用于对渔业资源生物量、生态效应的评估和预报。
Along with the rapid development of Marine fishery, overfishing and other problems which impact the sustainable utilization of fishery resources problems gradually exposed,affecting the balance of Marine ecosystems, how to evaluate the degree of influence is the study of the sustainable development of important issues. Based on the theory of system dynamics, using the system dynamics simulation software STELLA to establish inshore waters fishery ecological footprint dynamic model. The historical fisheries data verify that the model can be suitable,simulating the change of the ecological footprint and ecological deficit under different fishing intensity based on the marine ecological footprint of offshore fishing in main year, then can be quantitatively evaluated the sustainable development of fishery resources along coastal areas. The simulation results show: the offshore sea area has been in a unsustainable state of high ecological deficit under the current fishing intensity, we need to reduce the fishing intensity, to reduce the fishery ecological footprint, so as to maintain the balance of Marine ecosystems. This method can provide government policy makers reference for sustainable development, being used for biomass,ecological effects on fishery resources assessment and prediction, too.
Along with the rapid development of Marine fishery, overfishing and other problems which impact the sustainable utilization of fishery resources problems gradually exposed,affecting the balance of Marine ecosystems, how to evaluate the degree of influence is the study of the sustainable development of important issues. Based on the theory of system dynamics, using the system dynamics simulation software STELLA to establish inshore waters fishery ecological footprint dynamic model. The historical fisheries data verify that the model can be suitable,simulating the change of the ecological footprint and ecological deficit under different fishing intensity based on the marine ecological footprint of offshore fishing in main year, then can be quantitatively evaluated the sustainable development of fishery resources along coastal areas. The simulation results show: the offshore sea area has been in a unsustainable state of high ecological deficit under the current fishing intensity, we need to reduce the fishing intensity, to reduce the fishery ecological footprint, so as to maintain the balance of Marine ecosystems. This method can provide government policy makers reference for sustainable development, being used for biomass,ecological effects on fishery resources assessment and prediction, too.
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