Impact of Ocean Warming on Tropical Cyclone Track over the Western North Pacific: A Numerical Investigation
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- 英文论文题名：Impact of Ocean Warming on Tropical Cyclone Track over the Western North Pacific: A Numerical Investigation
- 论文作者：申艺璇 ; 孙源 ; 钟中
- 英文论文作者：Yixuan Shen ; Yuan Sun ; Zhong Zhong ; College of Meteorology and Oceanography ; National University of Defense Technology
- 年：2017
- 作者机构：College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology;
- 会议召开时间：2017-09-27
- 会议录名称：第34届中国气象学会年会 S1 灾害天气监测、分析与预报
- 语种：英文
- 分类号：P732.3
- 学会代码：ZGQX
- 会议名称：第34届中国气象学会年会
- 会议地点：中国河南郑州
- 主办单位：中国气象学会
- 学会名称：中国气象学会
- 页数：40
- 文件大小：1709k
- 原文格式：D
- 会议级别：全国
摘要
The impact of ocean warming on tropical cyclone(TC) track over the western North Pacific is an open issue. Relatively little is known about possible change of TC tracks under ocean warming conditions, let alone the involved mechanisms, due to the lack of long and successive observations and the large natural variability in a relatively short observational period. A suite of semi-idealized numerical experiments on two TC cases are conducted to investigate the response of the TC track to increases in sea surface temperature(SST). It is found that, the simulated TC track is highly sensitive to the underlying SST. Specifically, through its influence on the radial distribution of sea surface enthalpy, ocean warming can lead to the change of tangential wind profile and thus the increase of TC size in terms of the radius of gale force wind which is contributed by the increase of maximum wind speed, the expansion of radius of maximum wind, and the additional increase of outer wind. The increased TC size, as suggested by previous studies, further leads to the eastward withdrawal of western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) and thus the northwardturning of TC. Results of our climate simulations provide the further evidence for the aforementioned impact of ocean warming on TC size, and thus the WPSH and TC track. Our results also implies that, the threat of storm to the countries in the East Asian may reduce due to the change of TC track if ocean warming happens in future.
The impact of ocean warming on tropical cyclone(TC) track over the western North Pacific is an open issue. Relatively little is known about possible change of TC tracks under ocean warming conditions, let alone the involved mechanisms, due to the lack of long and successive observations and the large natural variability in a relatively short observational period. A suite of semi-idealized numerical experiments on two TC cases are conducted to investigate the response of the TC track to increases in sea surface temperature(SST). It is found that, the simulated TC track is highly sensitive to the underlying SST. Specifically, through its influence on the radial distribution of sea surface enthalpy, ocean warming can lead to the change of tangential wind profile and thus the increase of TC size in terms of the radius of gale force wind which is contributed by the increase of maximum wind speed, the expansion of radius of maximum wind, and the additional increase of outer wind. The increased TC size, as suggested by previous studies, further leads to the eastward withdrawal of western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) and thus the northwardturning of TC. Results of our climate simulations provide the further evidence for the aforementioned impact of ocean warming on TC size, and thus the WPSH and TC track. Our results also implies that, the threat of storm to the countries in the East Asian may reduce due to the change of TC track if ocean warming happens in future.
The impact of ocean warming on tropical cyclone(TC) track over the western North Pacific is an open issue. Relatively little is known about possible change of TC tracks under ocean warming conditions, let alone the involved mechanisms, due to the lack of long and successive observations and the large natural variability in a relatively short observational period. A suite of semi-idealized numerical experiments on two TC cases are conducted to investigate the response of the TC track to increases in sea surface temperature(SST). It is found that, the simulated TC track is highly sensitive to the underlying SST. Specifically, through its influence on the radial distribution of sea surface enthalpy, ocean warming can lead to the change of tangential wind profile and thus the increase of TC size in terms of the radius of gale force wind which is contributed by the increase of maximum wind speed, the expansion of radius of maximum wind, and the additional increase of outer wind. The increased TC size, as suggested by previous studies, further leads to the eastward withdrawal of western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) and thus the northwardturning of TC. Results of our climate simulations provide the further evidence for the aforementioned impact of ocean warming on TC size, and thus the WPSH and TC track. Our results also implies that, the threat of storm to the countries in the East Asian may reduce due to the change of TC track if ocean warming happens in future.
引文
Beljaars,A.C.M.(1994),The parameterization of surface fluxes in large-scale models under free convection,Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc.,121,255-270,doi:10.1002/qj.49712152203.
Bell,M.M.,and M.T.Montgomery(2008),Observed structure,evolution,and potential intensity of category 5 Hurricane Isabel from 12 to 14 September,Mon.Weather Rev.,136,2023-2046,doi:10.1175/2007MWR1858.1.
Bengtsson,L.,K.I.Hodges,and E.Roeckner(2006),Storm tracks and climate change,J.Clim.,19,3518-3543.
Carr,L.E.,III,and R.L.Elsberry(1997),Models of tropical cyclone wind distribution and beta-effect propagation for application to tropical cyclone track forecasting,Mon.Wea.Rev.,125,3190-3209,doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<3190:MOTCWD>2.0.CO;2.
Cox,P.M.,R.A.Betts,C.D.Jones,S.A.Spall,and I.J.Totterdell(2000),Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model,Nature,408,184-187,doi:10.1038/35041539.
Emanuel,K.A.(1986),An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclone:Part I:Steady state maintenance,J.Atmos.Sci.,43,585-604,doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1986)043<0585:AASITF>2.0.CO;2.
Fiorino,M.,and R.L.Elsberry(1989),Some aspects of vortex structure related to tropical cyclone motion,J.Atmos.Sci.,46,975-990,doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1989)046<0975:SAOVSR>2.0.CO;2.
Grell,G.A.,and D.Dévényi(2002),A generalized approach to parameterizing convection combining ensemble and data assimilation techniques,Geophys.Res.Lett.,29(14),1693.doi:10.1029/2002GL015311.
Hill,K.A.,and G.M.Lackmann(2009),Influence of environmental humidity on tropical cyclone size,Mon.Weather Rev.,137,3294-3315,doi:10.1175/2009MWR2679.1.
Holland,G.J.(1983),Tropical cyclone motion:Environmental interaction plus a beta effect,J.Atmos.Sci.,40,328-342,doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1983)040<0328:TCMEIP>2.0.CO;2.
Holland,G.J.(1997),The maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones,J.Atmos.Sci.,54,2519-2541,doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1997)054<2519:TMPIOT>2.0.CO;2.
Hong,S.-Y.,J.Dudhia,and S.-H.Chen(2004),A revised approach to ice microphysical processes for the bulk parameterization of clouds and precipitation,Mon.Weather Rev.,132,103-120,doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<0103:ARATIM>2.0.CO;2.
Janji?,Z.I.(2002),Nonsingular implementation of the Mellor-Yamada Level 2.5scheme in the NCEP Meso model,NCEP Off.Note 437,61 pp.
Knutson,T.R.et al.(2010),Tropical cyclones and climate change,Nat.Geosci.,3,157-163.
Kosaka,Y.,and S.-P.Xie(2013),Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling,Nature,501,403-407,doi:1038/nature12534.
Kossin,J.P.,K.A.Emanuel,and G.A.Vecchi(2014),The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity,Nature,509,349-352.
Kossin,J.P.,K.A.Emanuel,and S.J.Camargo(2016),Past and projected changes in western North Pacific tropical cyclone exposure,J.Clim.,29,5725-5739.
Lau,K.-M.,and H.Weng(1999),Interannual,decadal-interdecadal,and global warming signals in sea surface temperature during 1955-97,J.Clim.,12,1257-1267.
Lau,K.-M.,J.J.Shi,W.K.Tao,and K.M.Kim(2016),What would happen to Superstorm Sandy under the influence of a substantially warmer Atlantic Ocean?,Geophys.Res.Lett.,43,802-811,doi:10.1002/2015GL067050.
Lee,C.-S.,K.K.W.Cheung,W.-T.Fang,and R.L.Elsberry(2010),Initial maintenance of tropical cyclone size in the western North Pacific,Mon.Weather Rev.,138,3207-3223,doi:10.1175/2010MWR3023.1.
Lee,T.-C.,T.R.Knutson,H.Kamahori,and M.Ying(2012),Impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin.Part I:Past observations,Tropical cyclone Research and Review,1,213-230.
Lester,E.C.,III,and R.L.Elsberry(1997),Models of tropical cyclone wind distribution and beta-effect propagation for application to tropical cyclone track forecasting,Mon.Weather Rev.,125,3190-3209,doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<3190:MOTCWD>2.0.CO;2.
Lester,E.C.,III,and R.L.Elsberry(2000),Dynamical tropical cyclone track forecast errors.Part I:Tropical region error sources,Weather Forecasting,15,641-661,doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2000)015<0641:DTCTFE>2.0.CO;2.
Maue,R.N.(2011),Recent historically low global tropical cyclone activity,Geophys.Res.Lett.,38,L14803,doi:10.1029/2011GL047711.
Mellor,G.L.,and T.Yamada(1982),Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical fluid problems,Rev.Geophys.Space Phys.,20,851-875,doi:10.1029/RG020i004p00851.
Miyamoto,Y.,and T.Takemi(2010),An effective radius of the sea surface enthalpy flux for the maintaince of a tropical cyclone,Atmos.Sci.Lett.,11,278-282,doi:10.1002/asl.292.
Monin,A.S.and M.A.Obukhov,(1954),Basic Laws of Turbulent Mixing in the Ground Layer of the Atmosphere,Tr.Geofiz.Inst.Akad.Nauk.SSSR,151,163-187.
Pan,Y.H.,and A.H.Oort,(1983),Global climate variations connected with sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific ocean for the1958-73 period,Mon.Wea.Rev.,111,1244-1258.
Persing,J.,and M.T.Montgomery(2005),Is environmental CAPE important in the determination of maximum possible hurricane intensity?,J.Atmos.Sci.,62,542-550,doi:10.1175/JAS-3370.1.
Rotunno,R.,and K.A.Emanuel(1987),An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones.Part II:Evolutionary study using a nonhydrostatic axisymmetric numerical model,J.Atmos.Sci.,44,542-561,doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1987)044<0542:AAITFT>2.0.CO;2.
Sun,Y.,Z.Zhong,Y.Ha,Y.Wang,and X.D.Wang(2013),The dynamic and thermodynamic perspectives of relative and absolute sea surface temperature on tropical cyclone intensity,Acta Meteorol.Sin.,27,40-49,doi:10.1007/s13351-013-0105-z.
Sun,Y.,Z.Zhong,L.Yi,Y.Ha,and Y.Sun(2014a),The opposite effects of inner and outer sea surface temperature on tropical cyclone intensity,J.Geophy.Res.Atmos.,119,2193-2208,doi:10.1002/2013JD021354.
Sun,Y.,Z.Zhong,W.Lu,and Y.Hu(2014b),Why are tropical cyclone tracks over the western North Pacific sensitive to the cumulus parameterization scheme in regional climate modeling?A case study for Megi(2010),Mon.Weather Rev.,142,1240-1249,doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00232.1.
Sun,Y.,Z.Zhong,H.Dong,J.Shi,and Y.Hu(2015a),Sensitivity of tropical cyclone track simulation over the western North Pacific to different heating/drying rates in the Betts-Miller-Janji?scheme,Mon.Weather Rev.,143,3478-3494,doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00340.1.
Sun,Y.,Z.Zhong,L.Yi,T.Li,M.Chen,H.Wan,Y.Wang,and K.Zhong(2015b),Dependence of the relationship between the tropical cyclone track and western Pacific subtropical high intensity on initial storm size:A numerical investigation,J.Geophys.Res.Atmos.,120,11,451-11,467,doi:10.1002/2015JD023716.
Vecchi,G.A.,and B.J.Soden(2007),Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity,Nature,450,1066-1070,doi:10.1038/nature06423.
Vecchi,G.A.,K.L.Swanson,and B.J.Soden(2008),Whither hurricane activity?,Science,322,687-689,doi:10.1126/science.1164396.
Wang,R.,Wu,L.&Wang,C.Typhoon track changes associated with global warming.J.Clim.24,3748-3752(2011).
Wang,Y.,2009:How do outer spiral rainbands affect tropical cyclone structure and intensity?J.Atmos.Sci.,66,1250-1273.
Wang,Y.,and J.Xu(2010),Energy production,frictional dissipation,and maximum intensity of a numerically simulated tropical cyclone.J.Atmos.Sci.,67,97-116.
Webb,E.K.(1970),Profile relationships:The log-linear range,and extension to strong stability,Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc.,96,67-90,doi:10.1002/qj.49709640708.
Webster,P.J.,Holland,G.J.,Curry,J.A.,&Change,H.-R.Changes in tropical cyclone number,duration,and intensity in a warming environment.Science,309,1844-1846(2005).
Wu,L.,and B.Wang,2004:Assessing impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone tracks.J.Clim.,17,1686-1698.
Wu,L.et al.Simulations of the present and late-twenty-first-century western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity using a regional model.J.Clim.,27,3405-3424(2014).
Xu,J.,and Y.Wang,2010:Sensitivity of tropical cyclone inner-core size and intensity to the radial distribution of surface entropy flux.J.Atmos.Sci.,67,1831-1852,doi:10.1175/2010JAS3387.1.
Zhong,Z.,2006:A possible cause of a regional climate model’s failure in simulating the east Asian summer monsoon.Geophys.Res.Lett.,33,L24707,doi:10.1029/2006GL027654.
Bell,M.M.,and M.T.Montgomery(2008),Observed structure,evolution,and potential intensity of category 5 Hurricane Isabel from 12 to 14 September,Mon.Weather Rev.,136,2023-2046,doi:10.1175/2007MWR1858.1.
Bengtsson,L.,K.I.Hodges,and E.Roeckner(2006),Storm tracks and climate change,J.Clim.,19,3518-3543.
Carr,L.E.,III,and R.L.Elsberry(1997),Models of tropical cyclone wind distribution and beta-effect propagation for application to tropical cyclone track forecasting,Mon.Wea.Rev.,125,3190-3209,doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<3190:MOTCWD>2.0.CO;2.
Cox,P.M.,R.A.Betts,C.D.Jones,S.A.Spall,and I.J.Totterdell(2000),Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model,Nature,408,184-187,doi:10.1038/35041539.
Emanuel,K.A.(1986),An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclone:Part I:Steady state maintenance,J.Atmos.Sci.,43,585-604,doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1986)043<0585:AASITF>2.0.CO;2.
Fiorino,M.,and R.L.Elsberry(1989),Some aspects of vortex structure related to tropical cyclone motion,J.Atmos.Sci.,46,975-990,doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1989)046<0975:SAOVSR>2.0.CO;2.
Grell,G.A.,and D.Dévényi(2002),A generalized approach to parameterizing convection combining ensemble and data assimilation techniques,Geophys.Res.Lett.,29(14),1693.doi:10.1029/2002GL015311.
Hill,K.A.,and G.M.Lackmann(2009),Influence of environmental humidity on tropical cyclone size,Mon.Weather Rev.,137,3294-3315,doi:10.1175/2009MWR2679.1.
Holland,G.J.(1983),Tropical cyclone motion:Environmental interaction plus a beta effect,J.Atmos.Sci.,40,328-342,doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1983)040<0328:TCMEIP>2.0.CO;2.
Holland,G.J.(1997),The maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones,J.Atmos.Sci.,54,2519-2541,doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1997)054<2519:TMPIOT>2.0.CO;2.
Hong,S.-Y.,J.Dudhia,and S.-H.Chen(2004),A revised approach to ice microphysical processes for the bulk parameterization of clouds and precipitation,Mon.Weather Rev.,132,103-120,doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<0103:ARATIM>2.0.CO;2.
Janji?,Z.I.(2002),Nonsingular implementation of the Mellor-Yamada Level 2.5scheme in the NCEP Meso model,NCEP Off.Note 437,61 pp.
Knutson,T.R.et al.(2010),Tropical cyclones and climate change,Nat.Geosci.,3,157-163.
Kosaka,Y.,and S.-P.Xie(2013),Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling,Nature,501,403-407,doi:1038/nature12534.
Kossin,J.P.,K.A.Emanuel,and G.A.Vecchi(2014),The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity,Nature,509,349-352.
Kossin,J.P.,K.A.Emanuel,and S.J.Camargo(2016),Past and projected changes in western North Pacific tropical cyclone exposure,J.Clim.,29,5725-5739.
Lau,K.-M.,and H.Weng(1999),Interannual,decadal-interdecadal,and global warming signals in sea surface temperature during 1955-97,J.Clim.,12,1257-1267.
Lau,K.-M.,J.J.Shi,W.K.Tao,and K.M.Kim(2016),What would happen to Superstorm Sandy under the influence of a substantially warmer Atlantic Ocean?,Geophys.Res.Lett.,43,802-811,doi:10.1002/2015GL067050.
Lee,C.-S.,K.K.W.Cheung,W.-T.Fang,and R.L.Elsberry(2010),Initial maintenance of tropical cyclone size in the western North Pacific,Mon.Weather Rev.,138,3207-3223,doi:10.1175/2010MWR3023.1.
Lee,T.-C.,T.R.Knutson,H.Kamahori,and M.Ying(2012),Impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin.Part I:Past observations,Tropical cyclone Research and Review,1,213-230.
Lester,E.C.,III,and R.L.Elsberry(1997),Models of tropical cyclone wind distribution and beta-effect propagation for application to tropical cyclone track forecasting,Mon.Weather Rev.,125,3190-3209,doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<3190:MOTCWD>2.0.CO;2.
Lester,E.C.,III,and R.L.Elsberry(2000),Dynamical tropical cyclone track forecast errors.Part I:Tropical region error sources,Weather Forecasting,15,641-661,doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2000)015<0641:DTCTFE>2.0.CO;2.
Maue,R.N.(2011),Recent historically low global tropical cyclone activity,Geophys.Res.Lett.,38,L14803,doi:10.1029/2011GL047711.
Mellor,G.L.,and T.Yamada(1982),Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical fluid problems,Rev.Geophys.Space Phys.,20,851-875,doi:10.1029/RG020i004p00851.
Miyamoto,Y.,and T.Takemi(2010),An effective radius of the sea surface enthalpy flux for the maintaince of a tropical cyclone,Atmos.Sci.Lett.,11,278-282,doi:10.1002/asl.292.
Monin,A.S.and M.A.Obukhov,(1954),Basic Laws of Turbulent Mixing in the Ground Layer of the Atmosphere,Tr.Geofiz.Inst.Akad.Nauk.SSSR,151,163-187.
Pan,Y.H.,and A.H.Oort,(1983),Global climate variations connected with sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific ocean for the1958-73 period,Mon.Wea.Rev.,111,1244-1258.
Persing,J.,and M.T.Montgomery(2005),Is environmental CAPE important in the determination of maximum possible hurricane intensity?,J.Atmos.Sci.,62,542-550,doi:10.1175/JAS-3370.1.
Rotunno,R.,and K.A.Emanuel(1987),An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones.Part II:Evolutionary study using a nonhydrostatic axisymmetric numerical model,J.Atmos.Sci.,44,542-561,doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1987)044<0542:AAITFT>2.0.CO;2.
Sun,Y.,Z.Zhong,Y.Ha,Y.Wang,and X.D.Wang(2013),The dynamic and thermodynamic perspectives of relative and absolute sea surface temperature on tropical cyclone intensity,Acta Meteorol.Sin.,27,40-49,doi:10.1007/s13351-013-0105-z.
Sun,Y.,Z.Zhong,L.Yi,Y.Ha,and Y.Sun(2014a),The opposite effects of inner and outer sea surface temperature on tropical cyclone intensity,J.Geophy.Res.Atmos.,119,2193-2208,doi:10.1002/2013JD021354.
Sun,Y.,Z.Zhong,W.Lu,and Y.Hu(2014b),Why are tropical cyclone tracks over the western North Pacific sensitive to the cumulus parameterization scheme in regional climate modeling?A case study for Megi(2010),Mon.Weather Rev.,142,1240-1249,doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00232.1.
Sun,Y.,Z.Zhong,H.Dong,J.Shi,and Y.Hu(2015a),Sensitivity of tropical cyclone track simulation over the western North Pacific to different heating/drying rates in the Betts-Miller-Janji?scheme,Mon.Weather Rev.,143,3478-3494,doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00340.1.
Sun,Y.,Z.Zhong,L.Yi,T.Li,M.Chen,H.Wan,Y.Wang,and K.Zhong(2015b),Dependence of the relationship between the tropical cyclone track and western Pacific subtropical high intensity on initial storm size:A numerical investigation,J.Geophys.Res.Atmos.,120,11,451-11,467,doi:10.1002/2015JD023716.
Vecchi,G.A.,and B.J.Soden(2007),Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity,Nature,450,1066-1070,doi:10.1038/nature06423.
Vecchi,G.A.,K.L.Swanson,and B.J.Soden(2008),Whither hurricane activity?,Science,322,687-689,doi:10.1126/science.1164396.
Wang,R.,Wu,L.&Wang,C.Typhoon track changes associated with global warming.J.Clim.24,3748-3752(2011).
Wang,Y.,2009:How do outer spiral rainbands affect tropical cyclone structure and intensity?J.Atmos.Sci.,66,1250-1273.
Wang,Y.,and J.Xu(2010),Energy production,frictional dissipation,and maximum intensity of a numerically simulated tropical cyclone.J.Atmos.Sci.,67,97-116.
Webb,E.K.(1970),Profile relationships:The log-linear range,and extension to strong stability,Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc.,96,67-90,doi:10.1002/qj.49709640708.
Webster,P.J.,Holland,G.J.,Curry,J.A.,&Change,H.-R.Changes in tropical cyclone number,duration,and intensity in a warming environment.Science,309,1844-1846(2005).
Wu,L.,and B.Wang,2004:Assessing impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone tracks.J.Clim.,17,1686-1698.
Wu,L.et al.Simulations of the present and late-twenty-first-century western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity using a regional model.J.Clim.,27,3405-3424(2014).
Xu,J.,and Y.Wang,2010:Sensitivity of tropical cyclone inner-core size and intensity to the radial distribution of surface entropy flux.J.Atmos.Sci.,67,1831-1852,doi:10.1175/2010JAS3387.1.
Zhong,Z.,2006:A possible cause of a regional climate model’s failure in simulating the east Asian summer monsoon.Geophys.Res.Lett.,33,L24707,doi:10.1029/2006GL027654.