摘要
比率偏差是一种存在于决策中的偏差现象,指当小概率事件以不同比率形式呈现时,人们倾向于认为以较小数字呈现的事件更不可能发生的现象。数字效应是存在于消费行为中的一种决策偏差,指在消费决策中当各方面完全相同或相似的产品信息以不同的数字形式呈现时,人们倾向于认为以较大数字呈现信息的产品有更高的价值。本研究以认知经验自我理论(CEST)、解释水平理论(CLT)为理论基础,采用实验法研究了互联网购物情境中的比率偏差和数字效应现象。实验一中以好评绝对数量(好评绝对数量大vs.好评绝对数量小),好评度信息(提供好评度信息vs.不提供好评度信息)为自变量,以被试对产品的购买意愿评级为因变量,采用2×2的混合设计,其中好评绝对数量为被试内设计,好评度信息为被试间设计。通过实验来探讨购物网站中好评绝对数量和好评度信息对消费者产品购买意愿的影响作用。在实验一的基础上,为了进一步探讨好评数量、好评度以及卷入程度对购买意愿的联合影响设计了实验二,以好评绝对数量(好评绝对数量大vs.好评绝对数量小),好评度(高好评度vs.低好评度),卷入程度(高卷入vs.低卷入)为自变量,因变量同实验一,采用2×2×2的被试间设计。通过实验来进一步探讨产品不同卷入程度条件下消费者对好评数量和好评度的不同关注程度。研究结果显示:(1)在好评度相等的情况下,被试偏爱选择好评绝对数量大的产品。(2)在明确标明好评度相等的情况下,被试偏爱选择好评绝对数量大的产品。(3)购买产品卷入度高时,对拥有高好评数量产品的购买意愿显著大于对拥有低好评数量产品的购买意愿。(3)购买产品卷入度高时,对拥有好评数量低而好评度高的产品的购买意愿显著小于对拥有好评数量高而好评度低的产品的购买意愿。因此,本研究结果证明了人们在网购决策中,存在显著的数字效应,并且在高卷入度的决策中,好评的绝对数量影响效果作用甚至高于好评度。
The Ratio Bias is a phenomenon exists in decision-making. It occurs when people judge an unlikely event as less likely or more surprising when its probability is presented in the form of equivalent ratios of small than of larger numbers. The numerosity effect is the phenomenon that higher values elicit perceptions of larger quantity compared with lower values, with downstream consequences on judgment and choice. This phenomenon is common in consumers' decision-making. Based on the theoretical foundation of Cognitive-Experiential Self-Theory and the Construal Level Theory, this paper studied the Ratio Bias and Numerosity Effect in consumers' online shopping decisions by experiments. Study 1 with the number of positive comments(large vs. small), and the percentage of positive comments(provided vs. non-provided) as the independent variable, the willingness to pay as dependent variable. This experiment was manipulated in a 2×2 factorial design. The number of positive comments was within-subjects design, and the percentage of positive comments was between-subjects design. Through this experiment to explore the number and the percentage of positive comments on shopping Web to consumers' willingness to pay. In order to further explore the effect of the number and percentage of positive comments and involvement on willingness to pay. Study 2 was designed. The number of positive comments(large vs. small), the percentage of positive comments(high vs. low) and involvement(high vs. low) as the independent variable, dependent variable with Study 1. This experiment was manipulated in a 2×2×2 between-subjects design. The results showed that:(1) When the percentage of positive comments was similar, the subjects preferred the product with large number of positive comments.(2) When the percentage of positive comments was clearly marked equal, the subjects preferred the product with large number of positive comments.(3) When the involvement of the product was high, the subjects' willingness to pay for the product with large number of positive comments was significantly more than the product with small number of positive comments.(4) When the involvement of the product was high, the subjects' willingness to pay for the product with small number and high percentage of positive comments was significantly less than the product with large number and low percentage of positive comments. In conclusion, this paper evidenced that there is significant Numerosity Effect in consumer's online shopping decisions, and in the background of high involvement, the effect of absolute quantity of positive comments is even higher than the percentage of positive comments.
引文