山区公路典型路段运行车速模型及应用研究
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摘要
运行车速过高是导致道路交通事故的主要诱因之一,运行车速的形成机理非常复杂。本文拟采用人机工程学原理解析道路运行车速的形成过程,以运行车速为指标,对道路交通安全评价方法开展研究,主要包括:
(1)总结国内外关于运行车速建模方法,运行车速应用于交通安全评价等方面的研究成果,分析基于运行车速的山区公路安全研究的理论价值和现实意义。
(2)分析运行车速与设计车速和期望车速的关系,并从人机工程学的角度解释运行车速的形成机理。揭示驾驶员心理、车辆特征和道路交通环境以及交通管理等因素对运行车速的影响。
(3)选择山区公路典型路段,开展数据采集和分析,分析山区公路运行车速的分布特征,建立了典型路段运行车速预测模型和运行车速差模型。运行车速和速度差模型可作为山区公路限速标准和交通安全评价的依据。
(4)通过比较|ΔV_(85)|和|Δ_(85)V|的关系,分析了使用|Δ_(85)V|作为道路交通安全评价指标的适用性。运用模糊安全评价方法,引入隶属度的概念,基于|Δ_(85)V|进行山区公路交通安全评价分析,并提出安全等级的划分标准,通过实例对该方法进行了验证。
Too high operating speed is one of mainly inducement of road traffic accidents, and the formation mechanism of the operating speed is so complex. Through analysis of ergonomics theory, the paper has explained the formation mechanism of road operating speed. Furthermore, using the operating speed as the road safety evaluation index, carried out research on the method of road safety evaluation.
The mountainous road’s terrible conditions and transportation environment have the enormous influence to the road safety, and the operating speed is the reflection of traffic condition. Firstly, through concluding sufficient research on the achievement of the domestic and external,which is mainly about operating speed modeling and application, provides a theoretical basis for the research on operating speed.
Secondly, it has analyzed the operating speed, the design speed and the expectation speed’s relations, and has analyzed the formation mechanism of the operating speed from the angel of the ergonomics theory. It also revealed the driver’s psychology, the vehicle’s characteristic and the road traffic environment as well as the traffic control and so on is the primary factor which affects the formation of the operating speed.
Thirdly, the paper has carried out the research on the operating speed distributed characteristic of the typical sections of the mountainous road. The case of research on the operating is selected with great deals of data, which were investigated to analyze the relationship between the alignment elements and operating speed. Prediction models of the operating speed and speed difference which are based on the typical road sections of the mountainous area road are set up by means of regression analysis. The operating speed and the speed difference prediction model may be the basis of the speed control of the mountainous road.
Finally, through comparing the relationship of |ΔV_(85)| and |Δ_(85)V| , it has analyzed the applicability of |Δ_(85)V| as the road safety evaluation index. The paper researches on road safety evaluation from the angel of operating speed, through gathering speed of each individual vehicle on cross sections, and using the 85th percentile value of speed differentials of individual drivers on successive sections as evaluation index. The method of highway safety evaluation introduces degree of membership in fuzzy mathematics to establish safety evaluation membership function based on speed differential, then assesses road safety level. Take gathering data of some mountainous highway as example, it has carried on the confirmation to this evaluation method.
(1)总结国内外关于运行车速建模方法,运行车速应用于交通安全评价等方面的研究成果,分析基于运行车速的山区公路安全研究的理论价值和现实意义。
(2)分析运行车速与设计车速和期望车速的关系,并从人机工程学的角度解释运行车速的形成机理。揭示驾驶员心理、车辆特征和道路交通环境以及交通管理等因素对运行车速的影响。
(3)选择山区公路典型路段,开展数据采集和分析,分析山区公路运行车速的分布特征,建立了典型路段运行车速预测模型和运行车速差模型。运行车速和速度差模型可作为山区公路限速标准和交通安全评价的依据。
(4)通过比较|ΔV_(85)|和|Δ_(85)V|的关系,分析了使用|Δ_(85)V|作为道路交通安全评价指标的适用性。运用模糊安全评价方法,引入隶属度的概念,基于|Δ_(85)V|进行山区公路交通安全评价分析,并提出安全等级的划分标准,通过实例对该方法进行了验证。
Too high operating speed is one of mainly inducement of road traffic accidents, and the formation mechanism of the operating speed is so complex. Through analysis of ergonomics theory, the paper has explained the formation mechanism of road operating speed. Furthermore, using the operating speed as the road safety evaluation index, carried out research on the method of road safety evaluation.
The mountainous road’s terrible conditions and transportation environment have the enormous influence to the road safety, and the operating speed is the reflection of traffic condition. Firstly, through concluding sufficient research on the achievement of the domestic and external,which is mainly about operating speed modeling and application, provides a theoretical basis for the research on operating speed.
Secondly, it has analyzed the operating speed, the design speed and the expectation speed’s relations, and has analyzed the formation mechanism of the operating speed from the angel of the ergonomics theory. It also revealed the driver’s psychology, the vehicle’s characteristic and the road traffic environment as well as the traffic control and so on is the primary factor which affects the formation of the operating speed.
Thirdly, the paper has carried out the research on the operating speed distributed characteristic of the typical sections of the mountainous road. The case of research on the operating is selected with great deals of data, which were investigated to analyze the relationship between the alignment elements and operating speed. Prediction models of the operating speed and speed difference which are based on the typical road sections of the mountainous area road are set up by means of regression analysis. The operating speed and the speed difference prediction model may be the basis of the speed control of the mountainous road.
Finally, through comparing the relationship of |ΔV_(85)| and |Δ_(85)V| , it has analyzed the applicability of |Δ_(85)V| as the road safety evaluation index. The paper researches on road safety evaluation from the angel of operating speed, through gathering speed of each individual vehicle on cross sections, and using the 85th percentile value of speed differentials of individual drivers on successive sections as evaluation index. The method of highway safety evaluation introduces degree of membership in fuzzy mathematics to establish safety evaluation membership function based on speed differential, then assesses road safety level. Take gathering data of some mountainous highway as example, it has carried on the confirmation to this evaluation method.
引文
[1]刘运通.道路交通安全指南[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2004.7:72-74
[2] Roads and traffic authority.Speed Problem Definition and countermeasure Summary,Speed.Australia,2000,102-109
[3] Solomon D.Accidents on Main Rural Highways Related to Speed,Driver,and Vehicle.Washington,D.C:Federal Highway Administration,1964,76-82
[4] R.Lamm,E.M.Choueiri.Recommendations for Evaluating Horizontal Design Consistency Based on Investigation in the State of New York Transportation Research Record,1122,Transportation Research Board,Washington,D.C.1987:68-78
[5] FILDES B N,RUMBOLD G,LEENING A.Speed behavior and drivers attitude to speeding.Sydney:Monash University,1991,175-184
[6] H.R.Al-Masaeid,M.Hamed and M.A.Ela etc.Consistency of Horizontal Alignment for Different Vehicle Classes.Transportation Research Record,1500,Transportation Research Board,Washington,D.C.,1995:178-183
[7] BARUYA .Speed-accident relationships on different kinds of European roads.London:Transportation Research Laboratory,1996,49-52
[8]范振宇,张剑飞.公路运行车速测算模型的研究和标定[J].中国公路学报.2002,15(1):107-109
[9]朱敏清,张晓禾.道路平曲线设计中线形连续性问题[J].市政技术.2003,21(2):83-85
[10]钟小明,荣建,刘小明,周荣贵.高速公路弯坡路段小客车自由流运行速度模型研究[J].公路交通科技.2004.12,84-88
[11]刘开生,公路平面线形的连续性及评定方法[J].中国公路学报.1992.1.5(3)28-35
[12]唐敏文.高速公路速度限制标准与方法研究:[湖南大学硕士学位论文].长沙:湖南大学,2008,2-4
[13] M C Taylor,A Baruya and J V Kennedy,The relationship between speed and accidents of rural single-carriageway roads[R],TRL Report 511.2004,12-17
[14] N.J.Garber and R. Gadiraju,Speed Variance and its Influence on Accidents,AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety,Washington,DC,July 1988,35-38
[15] J.A.Cirillo,Interstate System Accident Research Study II, Interim Report II,Public Roads,Vol.35,No.3,August 1968
[16] J.M.Munden,The Relation Between A Driver’s Speed and His Accident Rate,Report LR 88,Transport and Road Research Laboratory,Crowthorne,England,1967,88
[17]交通部公路科学研究所.高速公路运行速度设计方法与标准研究总报告.2003.6
[18]杜博英.道路交通事故与车速建模[J].公路交通科技,2002.12,19(16):116-118
[19]张锁,李杰,李连升.道路交通事故车速分析的探讨[J].交通与安全.2005,148-151
[20] Raymond A.Krammes,Interactive Safety Design Model Design Consistency Module,September/October 1997,VOL61,No.2,47
[21] Michael F.Trentacoste,Prediction of the Expected Safety Performance of Rural Two-Lane Highway,FHWA-RD-99-207, September 2000
[22]唐铮铮,何勇,张铁军.公路安全性评价[J].公路,2007,139-144
[23] Michael F.Trentaeoste,Director Alternative Design Consistency Rating Methods for Two-Lane Rural Highways.1999
[24]郑安文,牛倬民.高等级公路运行速度与设计车速匹配研究[J].武汉科技大学学报(自然科学版).2003,273-275
[25] CBJ 124-88,道路工程术语标准[S].北京:人民交通出版社,1988
[26]郑安文.期望车速的意义及其影响因素分析[J].武汉科技大学学报(自然科学版),2005,28(1):61-64
[27]裴玉龙,程国柱.高速公路车速离散性与交通事故的关系及车速管理研究[J].中国公路学报.2004,74-78
[28]唐睁睁.限速、车速与安全[J].公路交通科技.2005,97-100
[29]马玉春.高速公路车速与安全关系研究:[北京交通大学硕士学位论文].北京:北京交通大学.2006,9-16
[30]王恒,方守恩.考虑加速度运行车速的计算[J].山东交通科技,2004.3:10-12
[31]丁玉兰.人机工程学[M ].北京:北京理工大学出版社,2000,12-15
[32] Wooldridge MD,Douglas WH,Lily E.Geometric design consistency on high-speed rural two-lane roadways,2003.08
[33] Wooldridge MD.Design consistency and driver error[A].Transportation Research Board.Transportation Research Record 1445[C].Washington,DC:National Research Council,1994,148-155
[34] Harwood DW,Council FM,Hauer E.Prediction of the expected safety performance of rural two-lane highways[R].Washington,DC:FHWA,2000,188
[35]金军,张殿业.驾驶员适应性及可靠性[M] .北京:冶金出版社,1996,48-53
[36]杨少伟.运行速度与公路线形设计方法研究[D].长安大学博士论文.2004,28-36
[37]李学明.超速行驶与行车安全.汽车维修,2000,9:26-26
[38] John G Milliken,Forrest M. Council etal.Managing Speed-Review of Current Practice for Setting and Enforcing Speed Limits Special Report 254 TRB National Research Council National Academy Press Washington,D.C.1998
[39]交通部.公路路线设计规范(JTJ011-2006).北京:人民交通出版社,2006,36-37
[40]交通部.公路工程质量标准(JTGB01-2003).北京:人民交通出版社,2003,12-13
[41]魏朗,高丽敏,余强,等.驾驶员适路安全感受模糊评判模型[J].交通运输工程学报,2004,4(1):102-105
[42] Transportation Research Part A 40[J].2006:375- 385
[43] John Mcfadden,Lily Elefteradou.Formulation and Validation of Operating Speed-based Design Consistency Models by Bootstrapping [C].Washington:Transportation Research Recorder1579,TRB, National Research Council,1998
[44] K Fitzpatrick,S Miaou,M A Brewer,P J Carlson,M D Wooldridge.Speed Prediction on Suburban Roadways[C].Transportation Research Record,2002
[45] K Fitzpatrick,J M Collins.Speed Profile Model for Two-Lane Rural Highways Geometric Design and Effects on Traffic Operations [C].Transportation Research Record 1737,2000
[46]赵恩棠,刘稀柏.道路交通安全[M].北京:人民交通出版社,1990,26-35
[47]刘运通.道路交通安全宏观模糊评价模型[J].中国公路学报,1995,8(增1):169-175
[48]朱中,李淑娟.道路交通安全多层次灰关联综合评价[J].交通与计算机,1998,16(1):14-17
[49] Shauna L H,Keith K K, Christopher D G.Evaluating speed differences between cars, light-duty trucks and vans for emissions modeling[J]. Journal of Transportation Engineering ? ASCE ,11/12 2004:814-817
[50]杜博英,方守恩.车速降低与交通安全[J].山东交通科技,2002,1:66-68
[51]汪明春.道路交通安全影响的模糊评价方法及数学模型的建立[J].公路交通科技,2008,4:125-127
[52]郭凤香.道路线形安全分析与评价:[昆明理工大学硕士学位论文].昆明:昆明理工大学,2005,12-14
[53]陈水利,李敬功,王向公.模糊集理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2006,13-17
[54] Lamm R,Psarianos B,Cafiso S.Safety evaluation process of two-lane rural roads:a ten-year review[J].Transportation Research Record,2002(1796):51
[55]谢季坚,刘承平.模糊数学方法及其应用[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2006,25-32
[2] Roads and traffic authority.Speed Problem Definition and countermeasure Summary,Speed.Australia,2000,102-109
[3] Solomon D.Accidents on Main Rural Highways Related to Speed,Driver,and Vehicle.Washington,D.C:Federal Highway Administration,1964,76-82
[4] R.Lamm,E.M.Choueiri.Recommendations for Evaluating Horizontal Design Consistency Based on Investigation in the State of New York Transportation Research Record,1122,Transportation Research Board,Washington,D.C.1987:68-78
[5] FILDES B N,RUMBOLD G,LEENING A.Speed behavior and drivers attitude to speeding.Sydney:Monash University,1991,175-184
[6] H.R.Al-Masaeid,M.Hamed and M.A.Ela etc.Consistency of Horizontal Alignment for Different Vehicle Classes.Transportation Research Record,1500,Transportation Research Board,Washington,D.C.,1995:178-183
[7] BARUYA .Speed-accident relationships on different kinds of European roads.London:Transportation Research Laboratory,1996,49-52
[8]范振宇,张剑飞.公路运行车速测算模型的研究和标定[J].中国公路学报.2002,15(1):107-109
[9]朱敏清,张晓禾.道路平曲线设计中线形连续性问题[J].市政技术.2003,21(2):83-85
[10]钟小明,荣建,刘小明,周荣贵.高速公路弯坡路段小客车自由流运行速度模型研究[J].公路交通科技.2004.12,84-88
[11]刘开生,公路平面线形的连续性及评定方法[J].中国公路学报.1992.1.5(3)28-35
[12]唐敏文.高速公路速度限制标准与方法研究:[湖南大学硕士学位论文].长沙:湖南大学,2008,2-4
[13] M C Taylor,A Baruya and J V Kennedy,The relationship between speed and accidents of rural single-carriageway roads[R],TRL Report 511.2004,12-17
[14] N.J.Garber and R. Gadiraju,Speed Variance and its Influence on Accidents,AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety,Washington,DC,July 1988,35-38
[15] J.A.Cirillo,Interstate System Accident Research Study II, Interim Report II,Public Roads,Vol.35,No.3,August 1968
[16] J.M.Munden,The Relation Between A Driver’s Speed and His Accident Rate,Report LR 88,Transport and Road Research Laboratory,Crowthorne,England,1967,88
[17]交通部公路科学研究所.高速公路运行速度设计方法与标准研究总报告.2003.6
[18]杜博英.道路交通事故与车速建模[J].公路交通科技,2002.12,19(16):116-118
[19]张锁,李杰,李连升.道路交通事故车速分析的探讨[J].交通与安全.2005,148-151
[20] Raymond A.Krammes,Interactive Safety Design Model Design Consistency Module,September/October 1997,VOL61,No.2,47
[21] Michael F.Trentacoste,Prediction of the Expected Safety Performance of Rural Two-Lane Highway,FHWA-RD-99-207, September 2000
[22]唐铮铮,何勇,张铁军.公路安全性评价[J].公路,2007,139-144
[23] Michael F.Trentaeoste,Director Alternative Design Consistency Rating Methods for Two-Lane Rural Highways.1999
[24]郑安文,牛倬民.高等级公路运行速度与设计车速匹配研究[J].武汉科技大学学报(自然科学版).2003,273-275
[25] CBJ 124-88,道路工程术语标准[S].北京:人民交通出版社,1988
[26]郑安文.期望车速的意义及其影响因素分析[J].武汉科技大学学报(自然科学版),2005,28(1):61-64
[27]裴玉龙,程国柱.高速公路车速离散性与交通事故的关系及车速管理研究[J].中国公路学报.2004,74-78
[28]唐睁睁.限速、车速与安全[J].公路交通科技.2005,97-100
[29]马玉春.高速公路车速与安全关系研究:[北京交通大学硕士学位论文].北京:北京交通大学.2006,9-16
[30]王恒,方守恩.考虑加速度运行车速的计算[J].山东交通科技,2004.3:10-12
[31]丁玉兰.人机工程学[M ].北京:北京理工大学出版社,2000,12-15
[32] Wooldridge MD,Douglas WH,Lily E.Geometric design consistency on high-speed rural two-lane roadways,2003.08
[33] Wooldridge MD.Design consistency and driver error[A].Transportation Research Board.Transportation Research Record 1445[C].Washington,DC:National Research Council,1994,148-155
[34] Harwood DW,Council FM,Hauer E.Prediction of the expected safety performance of rural two-lane highways[R].Washington,DC:FHWA,2000,188
[35]金军,张殿业.驾驶员适应性及可靠性[M] .北京:冶金出版社,1996,48-53
[36]杨少伟.运行速度与公路线形设计方法研究[D].长安大学博士论文.2004,28-36
[37]李学明.超速行驶与行车安全.汽车维修,2000,9:26-26
[38] John G Milliken,Forrest M. Council etal.Managing Speed-Review of Current Practice for Setting and Enforcing Speed Limits Special Report 254 TRB National Research Council National Academy Press Washington,D.C.1998
[39]交通部.公路路线设计规范(JTJ011-2006).北京:人民交通出版社,2006,36-37
[40]交通部.公路工程质量标准(JTGB01-2003).北京:人民交通出版社,2003,12-13
[41]魏朗,高丽敏,余强,等.驾驶员适路安全感受模糊评判模型[J].交通运输工程学报,2004,4(1):102-105
[42] Transportation Research Part A 40[J].2006:375- 385
[43] John Mcfadden,Lily Elefteradou.Formulation and Validation of Operating Speed-based Design Consistency Models by Bootstrapping [C].Washington:Transportation Research Recorder1579,TRB, National Research Council,1998
[44] K Fitzpatrick,S Miaou,M A Brewer,P J Carlson,M D Wooldridge.Speed Prediction on Suburban Roadways[C].Transportation Research Record,2002
[45] K Fitzpatrick,J M Collins.Speed Profile Model for Two-Lane Rural Highways Geometric Design and Effects on Traffic Operations [C].Transportation Research Record 1737,2000
[46]赵恩棠,刘稀柏.道路交通安全[M].北京:人民交通出版社,1990,26-35
[47]刘运通.道路交通安全宏观模糊评价模型[J].中国公路学报,1995,8(增1):169-175
[48]朱中,李淑娟.道路交通安全多层次灰关联综合评价[J].交通与计算机,1998,16(1):14-17
[49] Shauna L H,Keith K K, Christopher D G.Evaluating speed differences between cars, light-duty trucks and vans for emissions modeling[J]. Journal of Transportation Engineering ? ASCE ,11/12 2004:814-817
[50]杜博英,方守恩.车速降低与交通安全[J].山东交通科技,2002,1:66-68
[51]汪明春.道路交通安全影响的模糊评价方法及数学模型的建立[J].公路交通科技,2008,4:125-127
[52]郭凤香.道路线形安全分析与评价:[昆明理工大学硕士学位论文].昆明:昆明理工大学,2005,12-14
[53]陈水利,李敬功,王向公.模糊集理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2006,13-17
[54] Lamm R,Psarianos B,Cafiso S.Safety evaluation process of two-lane rural roads:a ten-year review[J].Transportation Research Record,2002(1796):51
[55]谢季坚,刘承平.模糊数学方法及其应用[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2006,25-32