自主性与制度化:一党独大制的适应性研究
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摘要
1974年后,西方学者所谓的“第三波”民主化浪潮开始席卷世界各地,其中的一个表现就是原有的一党独大的执政党不少相继失去执政权,出现了巨大的政治变迁。与此同时,也有的独大党依然保持执政局面。在这种情况下,一党独大制明显出现分化。这说明政党在民主化研究中具有重要作用,是制度变迁的独立推动者。一党独大制的适应性依赖于独大党的适应性。本文以政党活动为视角,认为任何政党的理性都是“有限理性”,如果自主性和制度化逐渐弱化,导致适应性弱化,就会引发独大党失去政权,从而导致政治变迁。政党要保持适应性,就要成功地适应环境的变化,因此必须要有自主性;同时,必须不断地进行制度变革,即动态的制度化,以应对环境挑战。而自主性和制度化的深层次动力源自代议制民主,进而解释了各国(地区)民主转型之不同。
     本文分为六章论述,前三章是理论,中间两章是案例,最后一章是理论总结。
     第一章,论述一党独大制的概念、优势与矛盾。一党独大制即在多党竞争的情况下一党长期连续执政的政党体制。一党独大表现在权力门槛和时间门槛上。一党独大制有助政治稳定、国家建设、政策连贯、吸纳精英、意识形态整合。但也存在人民主权与信号缺少、平衡寡头化和民粹化、政党发展与“寡头统治铁律”、精英吸收的数量与质量、代际更替与保持政党团结、精英标准与忠诚—能力选择、理性化与复杂人性、普及教育与吸纳空间有限、吸收新兴阶级与保持凝聚力、惰性本能与持续保持危机感要求、党政等内在矛盾。一党独大制中,独大党用以解决内在矛盾的自主性和制度化程度不同导致了其执政时间长短不同,这是各国大党兴衰成败的关键,也是一党独大制出现分化的关键。
     第二章,阐述一党独大制适应性的第一个方面政党自主性。这包括政党自主性出现的背景,即现代社会政党的崛起;政党自主性的构成、基础,以及危机和冲突对政党自主性的挑战等方面。政党自主性包括两方面。一是相对于国外压力的自主性,二是政党相对于国内政治势力的自主性程度。做到这两点,关键在于它对公共资源的控制能力、设计出有利于己的选举制度和政体,以及具有自主的意识形态。冲突分为现实性冲突和非现实性冲突两种。就危机应对而言,民众信心和政府物资贮备状况至关重要。危机和冲突的解决需要政党精英的政治技艺。
     第三章,阐述一党独大制适应性的第二个方面政党制度化。本文将政党制度化定义为政党行为体常规化地进行制度创新、使制度在组织成员身上内化从而应对外部环境的变迁的过程。两种不同的结构对政党制度化有不同的影响。“恩庇—侍从”结构形成了以政党为核心的庇护主义;职业官僚结构产生了职业化选举型政党。政党制度化可分为精英制度化和大众政治参与—回应制度化两类。危机的内在特点决定了政党制度化的困难。独大党若能有效应对,制度化能力较强,就能保持执政。但大多数情况下,独大党因为来不及、或者妥协失败,或者制度化无法外化为外部行动、对新制度执行不力,都可能会促使大众政治参与的爆炸,从而带来社会动乱,还可能会因重大政策的主张不同而导致权力斗争,引发政党分裂。
     第四章,对新加坡和博茨瓦纳两国的案例进行剖析。二者经历“第三波”依旧保持执政,一党独大制保持了较强的适应性。其原因是二国的独大党保持了高度的自主性和制度化。这包括:保持对公共资源的控制,设计合适的选举制度,二者还是少见的没有政党公共资金资助的国家,相对于国际和国内压力的自主,进行精英和大众政治参与—回应的制度化,有力地应对了危机。
     第五章,对台湾地区和墨西哥的案例进行剖析。二者的一党独大制曾有过较强的适应性,但自20世纪七八十年代以来,由于不确定性与危机的接连出现,台湾和墨西哥各自独大党的适应性弱化了。二者各自的“关键节点”,台湾是外交危机引发,墨西哥是由石油危机引发。作为侍从主义党,在危机面前墨西哥革命制度党和台湾国民党无法处理新出现的问题和挑战,政党适应性出现弱化之势,这使得它们在“第三波”浪潮中失去了政权,并出现了民主转型。
     第六章,进一步阐述一党独大制适应性的深层动力问题。一党独大制适应性这一过程的最终动力是代议制民主。这部分首先对四个案例做了进一步的反思。新加坡人民行动党和博茨瓦纳民主党在“第三波”中巍然不动、执政至今,与其一党执政下激烈的竞选压力密切相关。而墨西哥革命制度党和国民党则缺少足够的选举压力,最后无法适应环境挑战而失去政权。接着本文从理论上阐述代议制民主对政党适应性的作用。只有具备足够的选举竞争压力,政党政府才不得不对民众的需求及时作出回应,政党才有可能长久保持自主性和制度化,代议制民主是政党持续保持自主性和制度化的最根本动力。
     以往政党理论研究主要集中于发达国家政党制度研究,较少专注于发展中国家的研究。一党独大制就是后发国家政治发展模式最常见的现象。但关于一党独大制适应性的研究却跟不上实践的步伐。研究这一问题,对突破目前关于民主化与政党研究中解释力不足的问题,对于总结国外大党的兴衰成败规律、探索中国特色社会主义道路具有一定的理论价值和实践意义。
After1974, the "third wave" of democratization which western scholars calledbegan to sweep the world. One of its manifestations is that many dominant parties lostpower, and huge political changes of one state or region followed. At the same time,however, some dominant parties keep the power. So the one-party dominant systemappeared obvious differentiation. All this shows that political parties play animportant role in the research of democratization, and they are the independent agentsof institutional change. The adaptability of one-party dominant system relies on thedominant party adaptability. From the view of political parties, the paper argues thatany rational political parties have “bounded rationality”. If party autonomy andinstitutionalization gradually weaken, party adaptability weaken subsequently, whichwill lead to parties losing power, and political change. Political parties need to haveautonomy to successfully adapt to changes in the environment, and carry out dynamicinstitutionalization to embrace environmental challenges. The deep-seated power ofparty autonomy and institutionalization comes from the representative democracy. Allexplain why democratic transformation of countries (regions) is different.
     This paper is divided into six chapters, the first three chapters is theoretical, themiddle two chapters is the cases, the final chapter is a theoretical summary.
     The first chapter discusses the concept of one-party dominant system, itsadvantages and contradictions. One-party dominant system is a multi-party system inwhich one party keep in power continuously for a long term. One-party dominanceMainly reflects in the power threshold and time threshold. One-party dominant systemwould contribute to political stability, nation-building, policy-coherent, attracting eliteand ideological integration. But there are also inherent contradictions: the people'ssovereignty and the lack of signal, oligarch and populist, the development of politicalparties and the "iron law of oligarchy", the quantity and quality in elite absorption,intergenerational replacement and maintaining political party unity, loyalty or abilityin choosing elite, rationalization and the complexity of human nature, spread ofeducation and a limited space to absorb, absorbing emerging class and maintainingcohesion, inert instinct and the need to maintain the sense of crisis, the party andgovernment. In the one-party dominant system, the difference in autonomy andinstitutionalization which the dominant party resolve the contradictions leads to itsdifferent length of life and the key of both its success or failure and the one-party dominant system' differentiation.
     The second chapter elaborates the first aspect of one-party dominant systemadaptability: party autonomy. This includes the background of its emergence, itscomposition and foundation, as well as challenges to the autonomy from crises andconflicts. Party autonomy include two aspects. The first aspect is the degree ofautonomy under foreign pressure, the second is the degree of autonomy underdomestic political forces. The key to achieve the two points lies in parties' ability incontrolling public resources, the design of the electoral system and form ofgovernment, as well as an independent ideology. The conflict divides into realisticconflict and non-realistic conflict. Public confidence and government supplies arecritical in crisis response. Settlement of crises and conflicts requires political skills ofthe party elite.
     The third chapter states the second aspect of one-party dominant systemadaptability: party institutionalization. My paper defines party institutionalization as aprocess which the parties have routine institutional innovation and organizationalinternalization so as to respond to the changing external environment. Two differentstructures have different effects to party institutionalization. The patron-clientstructure produces clientelism which core is the parties. Career-bureaucrat structureproduces professional election parties. Party institutionalization can be divided intothe elite institutionalization and mass political participation-responseinstitutionalization. The difficulties of party institutionalization are decided by theinherent characteristics of crisis. If dominant party have an effective response and anstrong institutionalized ability, it will be able to keep the power. However, in mostcases, because the dominant party responds too late, or fail to compromise, or have anunsuccessful organizational internalization or an ineffective implementation of thenew system, mass political participation explosion is likely to lead to social unrest, orthe splintering of parties as a result of different political opinions and struggle forpower.
     The forth chapter analyzes the cases of Singapore and Botswana. Both countriesexperienced the "third wave" but still remain in power, the one-party dominant systemmaintains the strong adaptability. The reasons are that the dominant party of twocountries maintains a high degree of autonomy and institutionalization. These reasonsinclude: the party can keep control of public resources, the design of an appropriate electoral system, no public funding of parties, independent with respect tointernational and domestic pressure, the institutionalization of elite and popularpolitical participation-response to effectively deal with the crises.
     The fifth chapter analyzes the cases of Taiwan and Mexico. Both one-partydominant systems have had ever a strong adaptability, but since the seventies andeighties of the20th century, due to the series of uncertainty and crises, the dominantparty adaptability of Taiwan and Mexico weakened."Critical nodes" of Taiwan was adiplomatic crisis, and Mexico was the oil crisis. In the face of a crisis, the InstitutionalRevolutionary Party and Kuomintang as the clientelist party can not handle theemerging issues and challenges, their adaptability appears a weakening trend, whichmakes them lose power in the "third wave" wave, and leads to democratic transition.
     The sixth chapter further elaborate the deep driving force of one-party dominantsystem adaptability. The ultimate driving force of this process is representativedemocracy. This part has a further reflection to the four cases. The reason whySingapore's People's Action Party and the Botswana Democratic Party can standrock-firm in the "third wave" is closely related to the intense electoral pressure. Onthe contrary, Institutional Revolutionary Party and the Kuomintang lack the electoralpressure, so they were finally unable to adapt to environmental challenges and lostpower. Representative democracy play an important role in the party adaptability.Only under the electoral competitive pressures, party government has to respond tothe people's needs in time and dominant party is possible to maintain the autonomyand institutionalization. So representative democracy is the most fundamental drivingforce why the parties maintain autonomy and institutionalization.
     In the past, theoretical study of parties mainly focuses on the study of the partysystem of developed countries, and less focus on the developing countries. One-partydominant system is the most common phenomenon in the political development modeof the developing countries. But the research cannot keeps up with the pace ofpractice. The study of the paper has an the theoretical value and practical significanceon breaking through the lack of explanatory power in the study of the democratizationand parties, and on summarizing the the law of foreign dominant party's success orfailure, and on exploring the road of socialism with Chinese characteristics.
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    ②Tun-jen Cheng, Embracing Defeat: The KMT and the PRI after2000, Paper presented at the Hoover Institutionsymposium on consolidating Taiwan`s democracy, March31,2006, pp.6-7
    ①参见刘建军:《“国高党低”与政党国家化:对新加坡模式的解读》,《河南师范大学学报》2007年第6期,第59页。
    ①Grace Skogstad, The Dynamics of Institutional Transformation: The Case of the Canadian Wheat Board,Canadian Journal of Political Science Vol.38Issue3,(Sept.2005), pp.529-548.
    ②Steven Levitsky, Transforming labor-based parties in Latin America: Argentine Peronism in comparativeperspective, Cambridge University Press,2003, p.9
    ①参见[意]安东尼奥葛兰西:《狱中札记》,曹雷雨等译,中国社会科学出版社,2000年,第91、111页。
    ①[西德]F.科雅:《政党与议会民主的危机》,关山译,《国外社会科学》1981年8期,第37页。
    ②[法]莫里斯·迪韦尔热:《政党概论》,雷竞璇译,青文文化事业有限公司,1991年,导论11—12页。
    ①[法]莫里斯·迪韦尔热:《政党概论》,雷竞璇译,青文文化事业有限公司,1991年,导论9—14页。
    ②参见[古希腊]柏拉图:《政治家》,洪涛译,上海世纪出版集团,2006年,第51页。
    ①Robert H. Dix, Democratization and the institutionalization of Latin American political parties, ComparativePolitical Studies, Vol.24No.4(Jan.1992), p.500
    ②[美]亨廷顿:《变化社会中的政治秩序》,王冠华等译,上海世纪出版集团,2008年,第16页。
    ③See Anglo Panebianco, political Party:Organization and Power,Cambridge University Press,1988, pp.54-57.
    ④参见[美]罗伯特·基欧汉、约瑟夫·奈:《权力与相互依赖》,门洪华译,北京大学出版社,2002年,第11—12页。
    ①See Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way, Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes after the Cold War,New York, Cambridge University Press,2010, pp.38-44,339
    ①Kenneth F. Greene, The Political Economy of Authoritarian Single-Party Dominance, Comparative PoliticalStudies, vol.43, no.7, July2010, p.6.
    ①[美]阿伦李帕特:《选举制度与政党制度:1945—1990年27个国家的实证研究》,谢岳译,上海世纪出版集团,2008年,第73页。
    ②Kharis Ali Templeman, Opposition Coordination Versus Recruitment Problems and The Persistence ofDominant Party Regimes, paper presented at MPSA, Chicago, April2009
    ①[美]马尔库塞:《单向度的人——发达工业社会意识形态研究》,刘继译,上海译文出版社,1989年,第83页。
    ②[德]马克思、恩格斯:《德意志意识形态》,《马克思恩格斯选集》(第一卷),人民出版社,1995年,第100页。
    ①[美]弗兰克·奈特:《风险、不确定性与利润》,商务出版社,安佳译,2007年,第18页。
    ②后发国家政治发展过程中常发生认同危机,它被认为是发展中国家政治发展中面临的第一个也是最根本的危机。参见[美]鲁恂·派伊:《政治发展面面观》,任晓等译,天津人民出版社,2009年,第81页。
    ①参见[美]科塞:《社会冲突的功能》,孙立平等译,华夏出版社1989年,第35—41、55页。
    ①[美]乔恩·埃尔斯特:《心灵的炼金术:理性与情感》,郭忠华、潘华凌译,中国人民大学出版社,2009年,第222页。
    ①杨善华、谢立中主编:《西方社会学理论》(下卷),北京大学出版社,2007年,125—126页。
    ②参见[古希腊]柏拉图:《政治家》,洪涛译,上海世纪出版集团,2006年,57页。
    ①[美]亨廷顿:《变化社会中的政治秩序》,王冠华等译,上海世纪出版集团2008年版,第10—19页。
    ②Scott Mainwaring and Timothy Scully (eds), Building Democratic Institutions: Party Systems in Latin America,CA: Stanford University Press,1995, pp.4-5
    ①Vicky Randall and Lars Svasand, Party Institutionalization in New Democracies, Party Politics, Vol.8. No.1,2002, pp.12-13
    ②Matthias Basedau and Alexander Stroh, Measuring Party Institutionalization in Developing Countries: A NewResearch Instrument Applied to28African Political Parties, GIGA WP69/2008, p.6
    ③See Angelo Panebianco, Political Parties: Organization and Power, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1988, pp.18-60.
    ④Kenneth Janda, Political Parties: A Cross-National Survey, New York: The Free Press,1980, p.144
    ⑤陈家喜、黄卫平:《一党体制衰落的制度探源——文献述评与框架建构》,《社会科学》2012年7期。
    ①Daron Acemoglu, Modeling Inefficient Institutions, Working Paper06-01, December27,2005, p.36.
    ①James C. Scott, Patron-Client Politics and Political Change in Southeast Asia, American Political ScienceReview, Vol.66, No.1,(Mar.,1972), p.92.
    ②See Beatriz Magaloni and Ruth Kricheli, Political Order and One-Party Rule, Annual Review of PoliticalScience, Vol.13,2010, p.128.
    ①参见[法]马太·杜甘:《国家的比较——为什么比较,如何比较,拿什么比较》,文强译,社会科学文献出版社,2010年,第248—249页。
    ①参见[美]D·P约翰逊:《社会学理论》,南开大学社会学系译,国际文化出版公司,1988年,第592—595页。
    ②Ora John Reuter and Jennifer Gandhi, Economic Performance and Elite Defection from Hegemonic Parties,British Journal of Political Science, January2011, Vol.41, Issue01, pp.83-110
    ①参见[美]加布里埃尔·A·阿尔蒙德、小G·宾厄姆·鲍威尔:《比较政治学——体系、过程和政策》,曹沛霖等译,上海译文出版社,1987年,第154页。
    ①[美]亨廷顿:《变化社会中的政治秩序》,王冠华等译,上海世纪出版集团,2008年,第38—42页。
    ①[法]卢梭:《社会契约论》,何兆武译,商务出版社,2005年,第19、21页。
    ①[新加坡]拉惹勒南:《行动党十年》,《建国十年》,第158页。
    ①Diane K. Mauzy, Robert Stephen Milne, Singapore politics under the People's Action Party, Routledge,2002,p.37.
    ①吴元华:《务实的决策》,当代世界出版社,2008年,第13、18页。
    ②[美]布埃诺·德·梅斯基塔等主编:《繁荣的治理之道》,叶娟丽等译,中国人民大学出版社,2007年,第203页。
    ①中央党校第23期一年制中青班赴新加坡考察团:《人民行动党在新加坡政治体制中的主导地位》,《学习时报》423期。
    ①《李光耀40年政论选》,现代出版社,1996年,第569、350页。
    ①Diane Mauzy, Electoral Innovation and One-Party Dominance in Singapore, In John Fuh-Sheng Hsieh andDavid Newman ed., How Asian Votes. Washington, DC: CQ Press,2001, p.48
    ②Petir30th Anniversary,1954—1984. pp.25-27
    ②虽然表面上党在全党代表大会的控制之下,两年开一次,但实际上党的权力集中于中央执委会,干部党员才能参加。中央执委会有暂停、降职、开除一个成员的权力,这通过投票进行,即三分之二通过。被开除的成员有权向全党大会申诉,但实际上,中央执委会的决定是决定性的。详见Thomas J. Bellows, ThePeople's Action Party of Singapore: emergence of a dominant party system, Yale University Southeast Asia Studies,1970, p.24
    ①Chee Meow Seah, Community Center and Political Development in Singapore:1951-1969, Master thesis,Department of Political Science, University of Singapore,1969.以及Boh Tiong Yap,“Community Center inSingapore With Special Emphasis on Efficiency”, Master Degree, Depart of Sociology, University of Singapore,1972.
    ②Heng Chee Chan, The Dynamics of One Party Dominance: the PAP at the Grass-Roots, Singapore UniveristyPress,1976, p132
    ①潘星华:《人民行动党前辈看分水岭大选》,《联合早报》2011年6月12日。
    ①马毅仁:《成者王侯(三)》,《读书》2001年5期,第142页。
    ②Chan Heng Chee,The Dynamics of One Party Dominance:the PAP at the Grass-Roots,Singapore UniversityPress,1978.
    ③李光耀:《风雨独立路——李光耀回忆录》,第19章,外文出版社,1998年。
    ①Abdi Ismail Samatar and Sophie Oldfield, Class and Effective State Institutions: The Botswana MeatCommission, The Journal of Modern African Studies, Vol.33, No.4(Dec.,1995), pp.653-654
    ②Gilfred L. Gunderson, Nation Building and the Administrative State: The Case of Botswana, Ph.D. diss.,University of Califomia, Berkeley,1971, p.7.
    ①Thad Dunning, Resource Dependence, Economic Performance, and Political Stability, The Journal of ConflictResolution, Vol.49, No.4, pp.461-462
    ①Mpho Molomo, Electoral systems and democracy in Botswana, in Zibani Maundeni eds,40Years of Democracyin Botswana,1965-2005, Mmegi Publishing House,2005, p.31
    ①Zibani Maundeni&Kebapetse Lotshwao, Internal Organisation of Political Parties in Botswana,Global Journal of human social science, Sociology, Economics&Political Science, Volume12Issue9(June2012),pp.59-60
    ①Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, James A.Robinson, An African Success Story: Botswana, MIT Department ofEconomics Working Paper No.01-37, July2001, p.3.
    ②John D. Holm, Botswana: A Paternalistic Democracy, World Affairs, Vol.150, No.1(Summer1987). p.26.
    ①汪峰:《博茨瓦纳独立以来经济发展述评》,《石家庄经济学院学报》2010年5期,第131页。
    ②樊小红摘编:《博茨瓦纳在发展中国家里应对风险能力最强》,《西亚非洲》2009年5期,第69页。
    ①詹火生:《台湾地区政治民主化与社会福利发展》,詹火生编:《社会变迁与社会福利》,台北:财团法人民主文教基金会,1991年,第161页。
    ②周素卿、陈东升:《基层选举下的地方政治与经济利益——以房地产开发为例》,载于陈明通、郑永年主编:《两岸基层选举与政治社会变迁》,台北:月旦出版社,1998年,第77—80页。
    ①高棣民:《从国家与社会的角度观察——台湾奇迹》,台北:洞察出版社,1987年,第117页。
    ②张铁志:《资本主义发展与民主化——台湾的新政商关系与国民党政权维系》,台湾大学政治学研究所硕士论文,1999年。
    ①李宗荣、施奕任:《发展型网络演变路径的差异:比较台湾与新加坡的公、私部门间企业网络的变迁》,《问题与研究》(台湾)第48卷第4期,第45页。
    ①王振寰:《谁统治台湾?——转型中的国家机器与权力结构》,巨流图书公司,1996年,第138—139页。
    ②Lin Chia-lon, Path to Democracy: Taiwan in Comparative Perspective, Ph.D. Dissertation of Political Science,Yale University,1998, p164
    ③王振寰:《谁统治台湾?——转型中的国家机器与权力结构》,巨流图书公司,1996年,237—238页。
    ①李达:《谁主沉浮——国民党七十年权力结构变迁》(第一集),广角镜出版社,1988年,第20页。
    ①张嵘:《台湾地方派系与国民党关系的演变》,北京大学国际关系学院博士论文,2006年,第60—61页。
    ①王振寰:《谁统治台湾?——转型中的国家机器与权力结构》,巨流图书公司,1996年,第66—68页。
    ②George W. Grayson, Evolution of Mexico and Other Single-Party States, International Studies Review, Vol.9,Issue2(Summer2007), p.332
    ①李国伟:《墨西哥革命制度党失去政权的原因》,《当代世界与社会主义》2005年3期,第42页。
    ①萧勇毅:《墨西哥政治变迁与外资发展之关系》,台湾淡江大学拉丁美洲研究所硕士论文,2005年。
    ①李建国:《战后墨西哥的对美关系》,《拉丁美洲研究》1985年5期,第54页。
    ①[美]斯迪芬·海哥德、罗伯特·R.考夫曼:《民主化转型的政治经济分析》,张大军译,社会科学文献出版社,2008年,第314—319页。
    ②Kenneth F. Greene, The Political Economy of Authoritarian Single-Party Dominance, Comparative PoliticalStudies, Vol.43, No.7(July2010), p.825
    ①Mónica Serrano, Governing Mexico: Political Parties and Elections, Institute of Latin American Studies,1998,pp.164-165,转移自袁东振:《论墨西哥经济转型时期的政治变革》,中国社会科学院研究生院博士论文,2002年,第58页。
    ②Jorge I. Domínguez, The Perfect Dictatorship? Comparing Authoritarian Rule in South Korea and in Argentina,Brazil, Chile, and Mexico, Paper presented at the2002Annual Meeting of the American Political ScienceAssociation, August29-September1,2002, pp.16-17
    ①Wilfried Gruber, Career Patterns of Mexico's Political Elite, Political Research Quarterly, Vol.24, No.3(Sep.,1971), p.470.
    ①Maria Amparo Casar, Party-Government Relations: The Case of Mexico, International Political Science Review(1995), Vol.16, No.2, p.188.
    ②参见[英]莱斯利·贝瑟尔主编《剑桥拉丁美洲史》(第七卷),经济管理出版社,中国社会科学院拉美所译,1996年,第109页。
    ③苏彦斌:《墨西哥的社会运动与民主化》,台湾大学政治学研究所硕士论文,2005年。
    ④[美]阿尔蒙德、小鲍威尔:《当代比较政治学:世界展望》,商务出版社,1993年,第651页。
    ①Miguel Angel Centeno, The New Leviathan: The Dynamics and Limits of Technocracy, Theory and Society, Vol.22, No.3(Jun.1993), p.315
    ②党内分裂皆是围绕着提名问题产生的。如艾尔玛善(Juan Andreu Almazán)1940年的分裂,帕迪拉(EzequielPadilla)1946年的分裂,古兹曼(Miguel Henríquez Guzmán)1952年的分裂,卡德纳斯(Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas)1988年的分裂。这些分裂是因为他们反对总统的提名。不过,1988年之前的这些分裂影响很小。参见:Beatriz Magaloni, Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and its Demise in Mexico, CambridgeUniversity Press,2006.
    ①Michael Coppedge, Parties and Society in Mexico and Venezuela: Why Competition Matter, ComparativePolitics, Vol.25, No.3(Apr.,1993), p.263.
    ②许胜懋:《选民投票行为与政党轮替:台湾及墨西哥二000年总统选举之比较》,台湾政治大学政治研究所博士论文,2006年。
    ①Wilfried Gruber, Career Patterns of Mexico's Political Elite, Political Research Quarterly,Vol.24, No.3(Sep.,1971), p.481.
    ①李良栋:《自由主义旗帜下两种不同民主理论的分野——当代西方主要民主理论评述》,《政治学研究》2011年第2期,第30页。
    ①Joseph Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, Allen&Unwin,1976, p.269
    ②参见[美]萨托利:《民主新论》,冯克利、阎克文译,东方出版社,1997年,第171页。
    ①[新加坡]杜进才:《人民行动党新任务》,《建国十年》,第119页。
    ②Thomas J. Bellows, The People’s Action Party of Singapore: emergence of a dominant party system, YaleUniversity Southeast Asia Studies, New Haven Connecticut,1970, p.30
    ①刘乃亚:《博茨瓦纳政党制度的运行机制及其长期稳定原因分析》,《西亚非洲》1995年3期,第23页。
    ①吴慧霞:《我国县长候选人竞选行为模式之研究——民国七十八年台北县长选举之比较分析》,台湾大学政治系硕士论文,1993年,第346页
    ②李达:《谁主沉浮——国民党七十年权力结构变迁》(第一集),广角镜出版社,1988年,第42—43页。
    ①[法]卢梭:《社会契约论》,何兆武译,商务出版社,2005年,第121页。
    ①Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way,Elections Without Democracy: The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism,Journal of Democracy, Volume13, Number2April2002, p.59
    ②[德]马克思:《路易·波拿巴的雾月十八日》,《马克思恩格斯选集》(第一卷),人民出版社,1995年,第628页。
    ①参见[德]米歇尔斯:《寡头统治铁律——现代民主制度中的政党社会学》,任军锋等译,天津人民出版社,2003年。
    ①See Lan Hu, One Party Dominance Survival: The Case of Singapore and Taiwan, dissertation,The Ohio StateUniversity,2011.
    ①参见崔易生:《关于一党制条件下权人能力递减问题》,《福建省社会主义学院学报》1996年第3期。
    ①参见郑振成:《新自由主义改革与民众主义执政党》,中国社会科学院研究生院拉美系博士论文,2002年,第19—20页。
    ①茅家琦:《中国国民党史》,鹭江出版社,2005年,第527—528页。
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    [3][美]艾伦·韦尔.政党和政党制度.谢峰译,北京大学出版社,2011.
    [4][美]阿尔蒙德、小鲍威尔.当代比较政治学:世界展望.商务出版社,1993.
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    [7][美]布埃诺·德·梅斯基塔等主编.繁荣的治理之道.叶娟丽等译,中国人民大学出版社,2007.
    [8]布莱克维尔政治学百科全书.中国政法大学出版社,1993.
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    非洲选举数据库:africanelections.tripod.com/
    政治制度数据库Polity IV dataset (www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm)
    国际民主与选举辅助协会:www.idea.int/vt
    世界发展指数数据库(WDI):data.worldbank.org/indicator
    新加坡人民协会网页:www.pa.gov.sg
    新加坡人民行动党的官方网页:www.pap.org.sg
    博茨瓦纳民主党的官方网页:www.bdp.org.bw/
    墨西哥革命制度党官方网页:www.pri.org.mx
    国民党官方网页:www.kmt.org.tw/
    海峡时报主页:www.straitstimes.com/
    联合早报网:www.zaobao.com/

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