基于风险熵模型的安防系统风险与效能评估技术研究
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摘要
当前,伴随着安全防范系统的应用已经在公共场所以及住宅小区日益普及,安全防范的案例急剧增加。近年来,我国治安形势严峻,各地“平安城市”建设高速发展,全国各级地方政府和各行各业投入巨资建设各类安全防范系统来全面准确的监控社会治安状况。这些安全防范系统虽然在社会治安防控领域发挥了一定积极作用,但足由于目前国内安防系统风险与防护效能评估侧重于管理和经验层面,仅停留在定性阶段,尚缺乏科学定量评估的理论方法和技术手段,难以支撑完整、高效的综合防控体系的形成和建立。因此,研究安防设施防护能力和风险预测技术,建立系统防护效能和风险客观评价体系,对安全防范系统的防护效能和风险进行科学客观的度量是当前国家安全防范领域发展的重大战略问题。
本文针对上述问题,在国家自然科学基金面上项目《基于风险熵模型的社会安防系统网络效能评估技术研究》(编号：61170023)、中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金—青年教师资助项目《基于风险熵模型的安全防范效能评估技术研究》(编号：3101014)和武汉大学博士生自主科研基金项目《基于风险熵模型的社会安防系统网络风险评测技术研究》(编号：20102110101000117)的资助下,开展了基于风险熵模型的安防系统风险与效能评估技术研究。本研究在安防节点防护效能的度量方法、安防网络的效能评估方法、安防网络防护能力的优化方法以及安防系统风险预测与效能评估仿真平台四个方向取得了创新性的研究成果。具体如下：
1.论文借鉴香农信息理论,引入风险熵的概念,并建立节点风险熵模型。研究成果主要有：利用风险熵定量度量安防节点的防护效能的方法,评估指标的权重与隶属度的确定方法,多种防护共同作用下的安防节点防护效能的定量度量方法。
2.论文将安防节点和交通路网连接形成的广义安防系统抽象为安防网络,在对安防网络的防护效能评估中引入路径代价的概念。研究成果主要有：基于节点风险熵的路径代价的计算方法,安防网络效能的度量模型,安防网络效能与安防网络风险值之间的关系。
3.论文针对目前安防设施的布局和配置不够合理的问题,研究安防网络防护能力的优化方法,建立安防网络防护能力的组合优化模型,该模型能够从理论上指导资源的分配和调度,使整个安防网络的平均风险值降到最低。研究成果主要有：安防网络中路径的权重确定方法,安防系统防护能力的优化模型的建立,优化模型的快速求解算法研究。
4.论文针对目前安全防范系统在效能评估技术领域缺乏相应的仿真平台这个问题,利用系统仿真技术结合蒙特卡罗方法建立安防系统风险预测与效能评估仿真平台,通过上述仿真平台的搭建,能够对城市的安全风险进行实时预测,同时可以在有向的城市道路上绘制实时城市风险分布图,并通过对预测结果的分析,找出城市道路中安全防护能力最薄弱的路径。研究成果主要有：风险预测与效能评估仿真平台模块接口分析,蒙特卡罗的数值仿真,实验数据的规范和一致性处理。
本文在基础理论,关键技术、方法和应用等多个层面对安全防范系统的风险与效能评估进行了研究,所取得的研究成果可望突破安防系统防护效能和风险客观评测的技术瓶颈,从而能够及时发现和解决安全防范系统建设与应用过程中可能出现的问题,充分发挥安全防范系统的监测、防护能力,使其真正成为公共安全体系的有力技术支撑,并指导安全防范系统的实践。对建立科学预测、有效防控与高效应急的公共安全体系具有重要的科学意义和应用推广前景。同时,本文的研究方法对其它信息系统的效能评估研究有着重要的借鉴意义。论文最后对整项研究工作进行了总结与展望,提出了一些有待进一步研究的问题。
Currently, with the increasing popularity of the application of crime prevention system from financial, museum, and important research institute to public place and residential area. security prevention cases sharp increase. In recent years, national security issues become serious in China. All parts of the country construct the safety city. Local governments at all levels and types of businesses invested heavily money in building a crime prevention system to monitor the social security situation comprehensively and accurately. Each day although various security facilities have played a positive role in the field of social security prevention. the effectiveness evaluation of crime prevention system focuses on the experience and management level. Due to the absence of theoretical methods and technical means for scientific quantitative evaluation, it is difficult to support a complete and efficient establishment of a comprehensive prevention and control system. So it is a major strategic task to research on risk assessment techniques and the establishment of objective evaluation of the risk in the area of national security prevention.
To address the above problems, this thesis is funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Project "Research on Social Crime Prevention System Risk and Effectiveness Evaluation Based on Risk Entropy Model"(No.61170023). project of central colleges of special funds basic research and operating expenses)-Young Teacher Grant "The Effectiveness Evaluation on Security System Based on Risk Entropy Model"(No.3101014) and doctorial independent research projects of Wuhan University "Research on Network Risk Assessment Technology of Social Safety Protection System Based on Risk Entropy Model"(No.20102110101000117) to lauch the research on risk and effectiveness evaluation technology on crime prevention system based on risk entropy model.This dissertation contributes at four aspects:the method on security node protection effectiveness metric. the effectiveness evaluation and optimization on security network, risk prediction and effectiveness evaluation simulation platform on crime prevention system. Specifically. the research results of this paper are as follows:
1. This dissertation learning form Shannon information theory put forwards the concept of risk entropy and establishes the node risk entropy model. The research results include the quantitative metric way on security node protection effectivness using risk entropy, the determing method on evaluation index weights and the degree of membership, and security node protection effectiveness measurement method under a variety of protection capability.
2. This thesis abstracts the board security network which is connected from security node and transportation network into security network. We introduce the concept of path cost in effectiveness evaluation on security network. The research results include the path cost calculation method based on node risk entopy, measurement model on security network effectiveness, and the the relationship between security network effectiveness and risk value.
3. Focusing the problem of layout and configuration security facilities unreasonably, this paper studies the protection capability optimization method on security network and establish the portfolio optimization model on security network protect capability. This model can guide resource allocation and scheduling in theory and minimize the average risk value of entire security network.The research results include the determing method on path weight of security network, the establishment of protection capability optimization model on crime prevention system, and fast solution algorithm on optimization model.
4. Focusing on the problem of lacking simulation platform in the field of crime prevention system effectiveness evaluation, this paper firstly builds risk prediction and effectivenss evaluation simulation platform of crime prevention system using system simulation techniques combined with Monte Carlo method. This simulation platform not only forecasts the city risk real time but also draws the urban risk maps on the direction road. And then we can find the protection weakest path on the urban road through analysis of the prediction results. The research results include the interface analysis of risk prediction and effectivness evaluation simulation platform, Monte Carlo numerical simulation technology, consistency and normative approach on experimental data.
In this dissertation, we study the risk and effectiveness evaluation on crime prevention system from basic theories, key technologies, methods and applications4aspects. The expected research results can breakthrough the technical bottleneck on risk assessment and effectiveness evaluation on crime prevention system. It discovers and solves the problems which may arise in the process of crime prevention system construction and application in time. At the same time, the research results can make crime prevention system monitoring, protection capability into full play and become strong technical support in the public safety system to guide the practice of crime prevention system. The above research result has an important scientific significance and application promotion prospects for the establishment of scientific forecasting, efficient prevention and effective emergency public safety system. This study method has an important reference significane for the other information system effectiveness evaluation. Finally, this paper summarized the research achievement and looked into the future research content.
本文针对上述问题,在国家自然科学基金面上项目《基于风险熵模型的社会安防系统网络效能评估技术研究》(编号：61170023)、中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金—青年教师资助项目《基于风险熵模型的安全防范效能评估技术研究》(编号：3101014)和武汉大学博士生自主科研基金项目《基于风险熵模型的社会安防系统网络风险评测技术研究》(编号：20102110101000117)的资助下,开展了基于风险熵模型的安防系统风险与效能评估技术研究。本研究在安防节点防护效能的度量方法、安防网络的效能评估方法、安防网络防护能力的优化方法以及安防系统风险预测与效能评估仿真平台四个方向取得了创新性的研究成果。具体如下：
1.论文借鉴香农信息理论,引入风险熵的概念,并建立节点风险熵模型。研究成果主要有：利用风险熵定量度量安防节点的防护效能的方法,评估指标的权重与隶属度的确定方法,多种防护共同作用下的安防节点防护效能的定量度量方法。
2.论文将安防节点和交通路网连接形成的广义安防系统抽象为安防网络,在对安防网络的防护效能评估中引入路径代价的概念。研究成果主要有：基于节点风险熵的路径代价的计算方法,安防网络效能的度量模型,安防网络效能与安防网络风险值之间的关系。
3.论文针对目前安防设施的布局和配置不够合理的问题,研究安防网络防护能力的优化方法,建立安防网络防护能力的组合优化模型,该模型能够从理论上指导资源的分配和调度,使整个安防网络的平均风险值降到最低。研究成果主要有：安防网络中路径的权重确定方法,安防系统防护能力的优化模型的建立,优化模型的快速求解算法研究。
4.论文针对目前安全防范系统在效能评估技术领域缺乏相应的仿真平台这个问题,利用系统仿真技术结合蒙特卡罗方法建立安防系统风险预测与效能评估仿真平台,通过上述仿真平台的搭建,能够对城市的安全风险进行实时预测,同时可以在有向的城市道路上绘制实时城市风险分布图,并通过对预测结果的分析,找出城市道路中安全防护能力最薄弱的路径。研究成果主要有：风险预测与效能评估仿真平台模块接口分析,蒙特卡罗的数值仿真,实验数据的规范和一致性处理。
本文在基础理论,关键技术、方法和应用等多个层面对安全防范系统的风险与效能评估进行了研究,所取得的研究成果可望突破安防系统防护效能和风险客观评测的技术瓶颈,从而能够及时发现和解决安全防范系统建设与应用过程中可能出现的问题,充分发挥安全防范系统的监测、防护能力,使其真正成为公共安全体系的有力技术支撑,并指导安全防范系统的实践。对建立科学预测、有效防控与高效应急的公共安全体系具有重要的科学意义和应用推广前景。同时,本文的研究方法对其它信息系统的效能评估研究有着重要的借鉴意义。论文最后对整项研究工作进行了总结与展望,提出了一些有待进一步研究的问题。
Currently, with the increasing popularity of the application of crime prevention system from financial, museum, and important research institute to public place and residential area. security prevention cases sharp increase. In recent years, national security issues become serious in China. All parts of the country construct the safety city. Local governments at all levels and types of businesses invested heavily money in building a crime prevention system to monitor the social security situation comprehensively and accurately. Each day although various security facilities have played a positive role in the field of social security prevention. the effectiveness evaluation of crime prevention system focuses on the experience and management level. Due to the absence of theoretical methods and technical means for scientific quantitative evaluation, it is difficult to support a complete and efficient establishment of a comprehensive prevention and control system. So it is a major strategic task to research on risk assessment techniques and the establishment of objective evaluation of the risk in the area of national security prevention.
To address the above problems, this thesis is funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Project "Research on Social Crime Prevention System Risk and Effectiveness Evaluation Based on Risk Entropy Model"(No.61170023). project of central colleges of special funds basic research and operating expenses)-Young Teacher Grant "The Effectiveness Evaluation on Security System Based on Risk Entropy Model"(No.3101014) and doctorial independent research projects of Wuhan University "Research on Network Risk Assessment Technology of Social Safety Protection System Based on Risk Entropy Model"(No.20102110101000117) to lauch the research on risk and effectiveness evaluation technology on crime prevention system based on risk entropy model.This dissertation contributes at four aspects:the method on security node protection effectiveness metric. the effectiveness evaluation and optimization on security network, risk prediction and effectiveness evaluation simulation platform on crime prevention system. Specifically. the research results of this paper are as follows:
1. This dissertation learning form Shannon information theory put forwards the concept of risk entropy and establishes the node risk entropy model. The research results include the quantitative metric way on security node protection effectivness using risk entropy, the determing method on evaluation index weights and the degree of membership, and security node protection effectiveness measurement method under a variety of protection capability.
2. This thesis abstracts the board security network which is connected from security node and transportation network into security network. We introduce the concept of path cost in effectiveness evaluation on security network. The research results include the path cost calculation method based on node risk entopy, measurement model on security network effectiveness, and the the relationship between security network effectiveness and risk value.
3. Focusing the problem of layout and configuration security facilities unreasonably, this paper studies the protection capability optimization method on security network and establish the portfolio optimization model on security network protect capability. This model can guide resource allocation and scheduling in theory and minimize the average risk value of entire security network.The research results include the determing method on path weight of security network, the establishment of protection capability optimization model on crime prevention system, and fast solution algorithm on optimization model.
4. Focusing on the problem of lacking simulation platform in the field of crime prevention system effectiveness evaluation, this paper firstly builds risk prediction and effectivenss evaluation simulation platform of crime prevention system using system simulation techniques combined with Monte Carlo method. This simulation platform not only forecasts the city risk real time but also draws the urban risk maps on the direction road. And then we can find the protection weakest path on the urban road through analysis of the prediction results. The research results include the interface analysis of risk prediction and effectivness evaluation simulation platform, Monte Carlo numerical simulation technology, consistency and normative approach on experimental data.
In this dissertation, we study the risk and effectiveness evaluation on crime prevention system from basic theories, key technologies, methods and applications4aspects. The expected research results can breakthrough the technical bottleneck on risk assessment and effectiveness evaluation on crime prevention system. It discovers and solves the problems which may arise in the process of crime prevention system construction and application in time. At the same time, the research results can make crime prevention system monitoring, protection capability into full play and become strong technical support in the public safety system to guide the practice of crime prevention system. The above research result has an important scientific significance and application promotion prospects for the establishment of scientific forecasting, efficient prevention and effective emergency public safety system. This study method has an important reference significane for the other information system effectiveness evaluation. Finally, this paper summarized the research achievement and looked into the future research content.
引文
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