要素流动与全球经济失衡
|
摘要
近年来随着全球经济失衡不断加剧,学者们围绕失衡的原因、趋势等问题进行了大量探索研究,但尚无统一定论。实际上,当前的全球经济失衡局面并不在于一些短期的政策性因素、也不在于中期的周期性因素,而应归结为长期的历史性因素,这个历史因素即为生产要素的国际流动。
单从现象来看,失衡突出体现在发达国家与新兴经济体之间的贸易失衡上但本质上的形成原因在于生产要素的国际流动。其中流动性极强的资本要素是最重要的根本性因素,鉴于资本的逐利性,资本要素通常由低价格区域流向高价格区域以获取更高收益。发达国家资产存量丰富,资本价格较低因而成为资本流出国家,其进行对外直接投资(FDI)的动因是以寻求稀缺的劳动力要素为主,通过以资本要素流动为本质的FDI达成了这一主观目的,同时在客观上造成了产业转移的结果。新兴经济体资产存量匮乏,资本价格较高因而成为资本流入国家,其大量的廉价劳动力要素是吸引外资流入的重要原因,同时通过参与全球产业转移迅速积累起大量贸易顺差,但低附加值的加工贸易方式使其处在全球产业分工价值链中的低端位置。新兴经济体所积累的大量外汇储备由于购买发达国家金融资产回流到发达国家国内,后者的巨额贸易逆差得以长期维持。因此可以说,要素流动是全球经济失衡的重要微观成因。
经济全球化是当今世界经济运行的重要环境因素,在经济全球化浪潮影响下,要素流动逐渐演变成为世界经济运行的本质特征。文章从2009年世界经济危机着手,在简单回顾世界经济危机的概况及成因之后说明经济危机暴露了全球经济失衡。其次,文章对全球经济失衡进行简要概述,并指出全球经济失衡是在世界经济运行过程中出现的一类客观经济现象,也是全球经济动态平衡中的永恒现象。现阶段全球经济失衡的主要特征为贸易失衡,此外,虚拟经济与实体经济失衡,以及世界范围内的资源配置及发展需求失衡也是全球经济失衡的重要特征之一。再次,文章将研究的重点落在了剖析全球经济失衡的深层次成因上,通过要素流动在经济全球化中的地位、全球产业转移的过程及特点、全球产业转移中的要素流动以及当前全球产业转移下的全球经济失衡等一步步的分析研究,最终得出要素流动是全球经济失衡的重要微观成因。接下来,文章构建了一个数理模型,再进一步利用实际数据进行计量分析以验证要素流动是全球经济失衡的重要成因这一结论。最后,分析指出后危机时代的应对措施及其不足,探讨国际组织机构在应对全球经济失衡方面的新进展,以及中国在全球经济失衡当中所处的地位及应对措施。
In recent years, with the growing global economic imbalances, scholars made a large number of research on the reason and trend, but there is no unified conclusion. In fact, the current global economic imbalances is not due to the short-term policy, nor the medium-term cyclical factors, instead, it is a result of the long-term historical factors, which means the international mobility of factors of production.
On the face of it, the global economic imbalance is most conspicuous in the trade imbalances between the developed and emerging economies, but essentially, it is a result of international mobility of production factors. The capital factor is the most important fundamental factor. In order to obtain higher yields, the profit-driven capital usually flows from the low price area to the high price area. Asset stocks in developed countries is rich, the price of capital is lower, thus the capital outflow from the developed country, the purpose of foreign direct investment (FDI) is mainly to seek scarce labor factor. In essence, FDI is a form of capital factor mobility, meanwhile it causes the result of the global industrial transfer objectively. Asset stocks in emerging economies is poor, the price of capital is higher, thus the capital flows into the emerging economies, the large amounts of cheap labor factor is an important reason to attract foreign capital inflows, emerging economies accumulate rapidly substantial trade surplus through participating in the global industrial transfer, but the low value-added processing trade make it in the low-end position of the value chain based on international industrial division. Using its accumulated foreign exchange reserves, Emerging economies purchase a lot of financial assets in developed countries, sustaining the long-term huge trade deficit of developed countries. Therefore we can say, factor mobility is an important microeconomic cause of global economic imbalances.
Economic globalization is an important environmental factor nowadays; factor mobility gradually evolves into the essential feature of world economy under the impact of economic globalization. This paper begins with the world economic crisis in2009, after a brief review of the world economic crisis, pointing out it is the crisis that revealed the global economic imbalances. Second, the paper has a brief overview of the global economic imbalances, and indicates that the global imbalances is a kind of objective economic phenomenon in the world economy, as well as an eternal phenomenon in the global economy homeostasis. The main feature of global imbalances is trade imbalances, in addition, the imbalances between the virtual and the real economy, and the imbalances between the allocation of resources and the development, are other two features. Then, the paper focuses on profiling the deep-seated cause of global economic imbalances, factor mobility in the economic globalization、the process and characteristics of global industrial transfer、factor mobility in the global industrial transfer、global economic imbalances under the impact of global industrial industry, through a step-by-step analysis, ultimately come to the conclusion that factor mobility is the important microeconomic cause of the global economic imbalances. Next, the paper built a mathematical model, and then uses the actual data in the quantitative analysis to verify the conclusion above. Finally, the paper analyzes the problem of the deficient validity about the post-crisis era response, at the same time, explores the new progresses of response in international organizations, the status of China in the global economic imbalances and response.
单从现象来看,失衡突出体现在发达国家与新兴经济体之间的贸易失衡上但本质上的形成原因在于生产要素的国际流动。其中流动性极强的资本要素是最重要的根本性因素,鉴于资本的逐利性,资本要素通常由低价格区域流向高价格区域以获取更高收益。发达国家资产存量丰富,资本价格较低因而成为资本流出国家,其进行对外直接投资(FDI)的动因是以寻求稀缺的劳动力要素为主,通过以资本要素流动为本质的FDI达成了这一主观目的,同时在客观上造成了产业转移的结果。新兴经济体资产存量匮乏,资本价格较高因而成为资本流入国家,其大量的廉价劳动力要素是吸引外资流入的重要原因,同时通过参与全球产业转移迅速积累起大量贸易顺差,但低附加值的加工贸易方式使其处在全球产业分工价值链中的低端位置。新兴经济体所积累的大量外汇储备由于购买发达国家金融资产回流到发达国家国内,后者的巨额贸易逆差得以长期维持。因此可以说,要素流动是全球经济失衡的重要微观成因。
经济全球化是当今世界经济运行的重要环境因素,在经济全球化浪潮影响下,要素流动逐渐演变成为世界经济运行的本质特征。文章从2009年世界经济危机着手,在简单回顾世界经济危机的概况及成因之后说明经济危机暴露了全球经济失衡。其次,文章对全球经济失衡进行简要概述,并指出全球经济失衡是在世界经济运行过程中出现的一类客观经济现象,也是全球经济动态平衡中的永恒现象。现阶段全球经济失衡的主要特征为贸易失衡,此外,虚拟经济与实体经济失衡,以及世界范围内的资源配置及发展需求失衡也是全球经济失衡的重要特征之一。再次,文章将研究的重点落在了剖析全球经济失衡的深层次成因上,通过要素流动在经济全球化中的地位、全球产业转移的过程及特点、全球产业转移中的要素流动以及当前全球产业转移下的全球经济失衡等一步步的分析研究,最终得出要素流动是全球经济失衡的重要微观成因。接下来,文章构建了一个数理模型,再进一步利用实际数据进行计量分析以验证要素流动是全球经济失衡的重要成因这一结论。最后,分析指出后危机时代的应对措施及其不足,探讨国际组织机构在应对全球经济失衡方面的新进展,以及中国在全球经济失衡当中所处的地位及应对措施。
In recent years, with the growing global economic imbalances, scholars made a large number of research on the reason and trend, but there is no unified conclusion. In fact, the current global economic imbalances is not due to the short-term policy, nor the medium-term cyclical factors, instead, it is a result of the long-term historical factors, which means the international mobility of factors of production.
On the face of it, the global economic imbalance is most conspicuous in the trade imbalances between the developed and emerging economies, but essentially, it is a result of international mobility of production factors. The capital factor is the most important fundamental factor. In order to obtain higher yields, the profit-driven capital usually flows from the low price area to the high price area. Asset stocks in developed countries is rich, the price of capital is lower, thus the capital outflow from the developed country, the purpose of foreign direct investment (FDI) is mainly to seek scarce labor factor. In essence, FDI is a form of capital factor mobility, meanwhile it causes the result of the global industrial transfer objectively. Asset stocks in emerging economies is poor, the price of capital is higher, thus the capital flows into the emerging economies, the large amounts of cheap labor factor is an important reason to attract foreign capital inflows, emerging economies accumulate rapidly substantial trade surplus through participating in the global industrial transfer, but the low value-added processing trade make it in the low-end position of the value chain based on international industrial division. Using its accumulated foreign exchange reserves, Emerging economies purchase a lot of financial assets in developed countries, sustaining the long-term huge trade deficit of developed countries. Therefore we can say, factor mobility is an important microeconomic cause of global economic imbalances.
Economic globalization is an important environmental factor nowadays; factor mobility gradually evolves into the essential feature of world economy under the impact of economic globalization. This paper begins with the world economic crisis in2009, after a brief review of the world economic crisis, pointing out it is the crisis that revealed the global economic imbalances. Second, the paper has a brief overview of the global economic imbalances, and indicates that the global imbalances is a kind of objective economic phenomenon in the world economy, as well as an eternal phenomenon in the global economy homeostasis. The main feature of global imbalances is trade imbalances, in addition, the imbalances between the virtual and the real economy, and the imbalances between the allocation of resources and the development, are other two features. Then, the paper focuses on profiling the deep-seated cause of global economic imbalances, factor mobility in the economic globalization、the process and characteristics of global industrial transfer、factor mobility in the global industrial transfer、global economic imbalances under the impact of global industrial industry, through a step-by-step analysis, ultimately come to the conclusion that factor mobility is the important microeconomic cause of the global economic imbalances. Next, the paper built a mathematical model, and then uses the actual data in the quantitative analysis to verify the conclusion above. Finally, the paper analyzes the problem of the deficient validity about the post-crisis era response, at the same time, explores the new progresses of response in international organizations, the status of China in the global economic imbalances and response.
引文
1 Noth,DC,《理解经济变革的过程》,"Understanding the Process of Economic Change", Princeton University Press,第78页
2 Noth, DC,《理解经济变革的过程》," Understanding the Process of Economic Change", North, Princeton University Press,第3页
2 张幼文.要素流动与全球经济失衡的历史影响[J].国际经济评论,2006(3)
1 国际货币基金组织.世界经济展歇M].北京：中国金融出版社,1997：45
2 斯蒂格利茨.全球化及其不满(M).北京：机械工业出版社,2004：3.
1 张幼文,知识经济的生产要素及其国际分布,中国工业经济,2002(8)P34-36
1 H.Siebert, Regional Economic Growth:Theory and Policy, Scranton:Intenrational Textbook Company, 1969, P.76.
1 阿尔钦,德姆塞茨.生产、信息费用和经济组织.财产权利与制度变迁：产权学派与新制度学派泽文集[M].上海：上海人民出版社,2004：25-59.
2 周其仁.市场里的企业：一个人力资本与非人力资本的特别合约[J].经济研究,19%,6：71-79.
1 Solow,1956 A contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics,70,65-94.; Barro & Sala-i-Martin,1995, Economic Growth. McGraw Hill:New York.
1 张幼文.要素流动与全球经济失衡的历史影响[J].国际经济评论,2006(3)
1.Chinn, M.D. and Prasad, E.S".Medium- term Determinants of Trade Accounts in Industrial and Developing Coun-tries:An Empirical Exploration", Journal of International Economics, Vol.59,2003,47-76.
1 高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模—Eviews应用及实例[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006：154-158.
1. 北京师范大学金融研究中心课题组.如何界定和保持中国外汇储备的适度规模[J].国际经济评论.2007
2. 曹阳.李剑武.人民币实际汇率水平与波动对进出口贸易的影响[J].世界经济研究.2006(8)
3. 曹瑜.汇率制度改革以来实际汇率升值兑中美贸易影响的实证研究[J].世界经济研究,2008(7)
4. 卢向前,戴国强.人民币实际汇率波动对我国进出口的影响：1994—2003[J].经济研究,2005(5)
5. 彭甚龙.人民币汇率变动与中美贸易失衡研究[D].浙江大学硕士学位论文,2009
6. 沈国兵.美中贸易逆差与人民币汇率的实证研究[J].南开经济研究,2005(3)
7. 宋兆晗,卜建明,杨晓森. “J”曲线效应与中美贸易收支[J].上海金融,2008(1)
8. 程均丽,孟祥禹,孙立兰.中国鼓励资本外流政策的风险分析[J].西南金融,2007(6)
9. 程新章.全球价值链治理模式——模块生产网络研究[J].科技进步与对策,2006(05)
10.池仁勇,邵小芬,吴宝.全球价值链治理,驱动力和创新理论探析[J].科技管202理研究,2005,(12).
11.崔大沪.外商直接投资与中国的加工贸易[J].世界经济研究,2002(6)
12.戴世宏.人民币汇率与中日贸易收支实证研究[J].金融研究,2006(6)
13.丁聘聘.外部均衡与人民币汇率：一个分析框架[J].财经论丛,2005(7)
14.丁一凡.美国的债务、全球泡沫及其对世界的影响[J].国际经济评论.2006(2)
15.杜晓君.制造业的国际转移规律和趋势[J].经济理论与经济管理,2003(6)
16.范方志,赵大平.人民币汇率变化及其传递对中国外贸平衡影响的实证分析[J].中央财经大学学报,2006(2)
17.方明.加快结构调整化解升值压力[N].金融时报,2006(5)
18.傅瑜,徐艳,何泽荣.论全球经济失衡[J].经济学家,2006(6.
19.公衍照,任启平.当代国际货币体制与全球经济失衡[J].集团经济研究,2006(10)
20.谷宇,高铁梅.人民币汇率波动性对中国进出口影响的分析[J].世界经济,2007(10).
21.管涛.中国国际收支调节应从国际经济入手[J].国际经济评论.2009(3)
22.何帆.人民币汇率调整对外贸和外资的影响[J].中国审计,2003(10)
23.何帆.全球国际收支失衡与人民币汇率政策调整[J].山东财政学院学报,2005(3)
24.何泽荣.中国转型期国际收支研究[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2006.
25.赫尔穆特·施密特.全球化,政治、经济与文化的挑战.德国出版社.1998,P14-16
26.华民.世界经济失衡：概念、成因与中国的选择[J].吉林大学社会科学学报.2007(1)
27.黄海洲.中国金融市场开始影响全球[J].21世纪经济报道.2007(7)
28.黄仁伟.美国全球化战略的经济因素及对我国经济安全的影响[J].世界经济研究.2004(2)
29.黄瑞玲.黄忠平.中国国际收支失衡：理论解析与政策调整[J].世界经济与政治论坛,2004(4)
30.黄素庵.美国经济实力的衰落[M].世界知识出版社.1990
31.江爱平.人民币汇率变动对中美贸易失衡的影响——基于马歇尔——勒纳条件的实证分析[J].生产力研究,2010(10)
32.姜波克.均衡汇率理论和政策的新框架[J].中国社会科学,2006(1)
33.姜波克.开放条件下的宏观金融管理(第四卷)[M].上海： 复旦大学出版社,1999
34.姜巍.当前我国宏观经济的内外失衡及调整[J].国际经贸探索,2006(7)
35.金三林.我国国际收支的新趋势[J].中国国情国力,2006(11)
36.李皓,章冬梅.人民币实际汇率及波动率对中美贸易的影响——基于协整检验和ECM的实证分析[J].经济问题,2011(2)
37.王中华.贸易收支与实际汇率——中美、中日比较研究[J].经济科学,2007(3).
38.谢建国,陈漓高.人民币汇率与贸易收支：协整研究与冲击分解[J].世界经济,2002(9).
39.许少强,马丹.人民币实际汇率对我国贸易收支影响的实证分析[J].新金融,2005(2)
40.叶永刚等.人民币实际有效汇率和对外贸易收支的关系[J].金融研究,2006(4).
41.钟永红.人民币汇改对中美贸易收支影响的实证分析[J].统计观察,2007(9).
42.李天栋.增长与就业双重约束下人民币均衡汇率的新范式[M].上海： 上海财经大学出版社,2007
43.李向阳.全球经济失衡及其对中国经济的影响.国际经济评论.2006(2)
44.李扬.全球经济失衡与中国经济发展[M].经济管理出版社.2006
45.李扬.全球经济失衡与中国宏观经济政策[J].新金融.2006(4)
46.李扬、余维彬.全球经济失衡与中国经济发展战略[M].经济管理出版社.2006
47.李长久.大公司兼并与世界经济全球化[D].1997(12)
48.刘安奎,梁涛,辜晓川,杨华强,王练.我国国际收支失衡原因及治理对策初探[J].西南金融,2007(6)
49.刘光溪.论经济转型期中国汇率改革作用的局限性——客观、冷静地对待国际收支“双顺差”[M].复旦学报(社会科学版),2006(6)
50.刘华,卢孔标.我国国际收支失衡的贸易根源及其对策[J].广西金融研究,2006(9)
51.卢锋.中国的双顺差、日本经验及失衡调整[J].国际经济评论,2006(9)
52.卢孔标.区域经济金融合作：东亚应对全球失衡的必然选择[J].亚太经济,2006(4)
53.罗伯特·基欧汉,海伦·米尔纳编,姜鹏、董素华译.国际化与国内政治[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2003
54.奈瑞·伍茨.全球经济治理：强化多边制度[J].外交评论,2008(12)
55.伊莉莎白·埃克诺米、米歇尔·奥克森伯格主编,华宏勋等译.中国参与世界[M].北京：新华出版社,2001
56.王逸舟主编.磨合中的建构：中国与国际组织关系的多视角透视[M].北京：中国发展出版社,2003
57.约翰斯顿(江忆恩)、罗斯(陆伯彬)主编.与中国接触：应对一个崛起的大国[M].北京：新华出版社,2001(1)
58.裴平,孙兆斌.中国的国际收支失衡与货币错配[J].国际金融研究,2006(8)
59.彭兴韵.控制外汇储备过快增长的长远战略在于人民币的国际化[J].经济社会体制比较,2006(6)
60.皮萨尼-费里,全球国际收支失衡的可持续性、调整是基于对策建议[J].国际经济评论,2006(9)
61.商务部课题组,中美贸易失衡的深层次原因与宏观经济影响(内部资料),2006年
62.沈国兵,美中贸易逆差与人民币汇率：实证研究[J],南开经济研究,2004(6)
63.沈国兵,外商在华直接投资与中美贸易平衡问题[J],财经研究,2005(9)
64.沈国兵.美中贸易逆差与人民币汇率：实证研究[J].南开经济研究,2004(6)
65.施建淮,怎样正确分析美国经常项目逆差,国际经济评论,2005(7)
66.斯蒂格利茨.全球贸易的灾难：国际货币基金组织会把矛头指向元凶吗?[J].海峡时报, 2006(5).
67.宋国友,中美经贸关系中的不对称性,世界经济与政治论坛,2007(3)
68.宋泓,美国霸权地位与中美经贸关系,国际经济评论,2006(9-10)
69.孙杰.亚洲债券市场的发展与全球性国际收支失衡的调整[J].世界经济,2006(1)
70.唐建伟.我国国际收支双顺差分析——现状、原因及影响[J].国际贸易,2006(5)
71.唐建伟.我国国际收支双顺差分析——现状、原因及影响[J].国际贸易,2007(5)
72.王世华,谭小芬.全球国际收支失衡：亚洲和欧洲的观点综述[J].国际经济评论.2006(9)
73.王晓雷.美国相对贸易逆差与贸易保护政策的失灵[J].当代财经,2006(4)
74.王晓雷.美国次级抵押贷款危机成因[J].农村金融研究,2007(10)
75.王信,两次经济全球化时期主导国家国际收支的根本差异[J].国际经济评论,2007(2)
76.王叙果.金融约束：经常项目失衡分析的新思路[J].财贸经济,2006(9)
77.夏斌.中期政策：改、疏、堵、冲、内——评第二次提高存款准备金率[J].银行家,2006(8).
78.萧琛,论美国贸易赤字对新经济增长的促进作用[J].世界经济与政治,2006(4)
79.谢建国,陈漓高.人民币汇率与贸易收支：协整研究与冲击分解[J].世界经济,2002(9)
80.谢建国、陈漓高,人民币汇率与贸易收支：协整研究与冲击分解[J].世界经济.2007(9)
81.宿景祥,储蓄不足—美国经常账户赤字的根源[J].国际贸易,2003(9)
82.徐明棋,美国国际收支经常账户逆差不断扩大对世界经济的影响[J].国际金融研究.2006(4)
83.许雄齐,张宗益,康季军.财政赤字与贸易收支不平衡：来自中国经济的经验数据(1978-2003)[J].世界经济,2006(2)
84.姚秦,减持美国国债：各国央行意欲何为?[J].中国外汇,2007(12)
85.姚枝仲,齐俊妍.全球国际收支失衡及变化趋势[J].世界经济,2006(3)
86.姚枝仲.美国贸易逆差的可持续性：调整及其影响[J].国际经济评论.2006(3)
87.余永定,覃东海.中国的双顺差：性质、根源和解决方法[J].世界经济,2006(3)
88.余永定.全球国际收支失衡：中国视角[J].国际经济评论,2006(9)
89.袁冬梅,美元特权对美国贸易逆差的影响探析[J].国际贸易问题,2007(1)
90.岳昌君,国际贸易,比较优势与技术传递[D].北京大学,2000
91.张帆,美国跨国银行与国际金融[J].中信出版社,1986(5)
92.张明,透视美国次级债危机及其对中国的影响[J].国际经济评论,2007(5)
93.张燕生,全球经济失衡条件下的政策选择[J].国际经济评论,2006(2)
94.张茵,万广华.试析我国贸易余额波动的成因[J].经济研究,2008(4)
95.张幼文.当代国家优势[M].上海：上海远东出版社,2003.
96.张幼文.经济全球化与国家经济实力[M].国际经济评论,2005(9)
97.张幼文.开放经济发展目标的动态演进[J].国际经济评论,2006(1)
98.张幼文.全球化经济的要素分布与收入分配[J].世界经济与政治,2002(10)
99.张幼文.体制竞争—全球化经济机制与开放战略[M].上海：上海财经大学出版社,2004.
100. 张幼文.新开放观：对外开放理论与战略再探索[M].北京：人民出版社,2007.
101. 张幼文.要素集聚：中国在全球化经济中的地位[J].文汇报,2006(5).
102. 张幼文.要素流动与全球经济失衡的历史影响[J].国际经济评论,2006(3)
103. 张幼文.知识经济的生产要素及其国际分布[J].经济学动态,2004(5)
104. 张幼文.知识经济的生产要素及其国际分布[J].中国工业经济,2002(6)
105. 傅瑜等,论全球经济失衡[J].经济学家,2006(7)
106. 中国人民银行货币政策分析小组.中国货币政策执行报告(二00六年第二季度)[N].中国证券报,2006-8-10.
107. 周宇.全球经济治理与中国的参与战略[J].世界经济研究,2011(11).
108. 曲博.金融危机背景下的中国与全球经济治理[J].外交评论,2010(6).
109. 李稻葵.富国、穷国和中国：全球治理与中国的责任[J].国际经济评论,2011(4)
110. 王国兴,成靖.G20机制化与全球经济治理改革[J].国际展望,2010(3)
111. 孙伊然.全球经济治理的观念变迁：重建内嵌的自由主义?[J].外交评论,2011(3)
112. 庞中英.1945年以来的全球经济治理及其教训[J].国际观察,2011(2)
113. 黄薇.全球经济治理之全球经济再平衡[J].南开学报,2012(1)
114. 周宇.人民币升值加剧全球经济失衡的风险[J].世界经济研究.2006(11)
1. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura,2007. The Dot-Com Bubble, the Bush Deficits, and the U.S. Current Account, [J],NBER Chapters, in:G7 Current Account Imbalances:Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 457-496 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.2007
2. Backus, David and Frederic Lambert, Current Account Fact and Fiction[J],unpublished manuscript, Stern School of Business, New York University.2005
3. Baldwin, R.E.,2004, Openness and Growth:What's the Empirical Relationship? [J], in: Baldwin, R.E., Winters, L.A. (Eds.), Challenges to Globalization:Analyzing the Economics. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp.499-521.
4. Barrie Axford The Global System:Economics, Politics, and Culture[J] St. Martin's Press, 1995-250
5. Barry Eichengreen Eicbengreen(2006a) Global Imbalances:The New Economy, the Dark Matter, the Savvy Investor,and the Standard Analysis[J],University of California, Berkeley March 2006
6. Bernanke, Ben, The Global Savings Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit[J],(10 March), Washington, D.C.:Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.2005
7. Blanchard, Olivier, Francesco Givazzi and Filipa Sa, The U.S. Current Account and the Dollar[J],Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1, pp.1-49.2005
8. Bosworth, B., Collins, S.M., The Empirics of Growth:An Update. Manuscript[J]. The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C..2003
9. Buiter, Willem,Dark Matter or Cold Fusion? [J]Global Economics Paper no.136, London: Goldman Sachs (16 January).2006
10. Caballero, Ricardo & Farhi, Emmanuel & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, An Equilibrium Model of 'Global Imbalances' and Low Interest Rates,CEPR Discussion Papers 5573, [J] 2006
11. Caballero, Ricardo & Farhi, Emmanuel & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, An Equilibrium Model of 'Global Imbalances' and Low Interest Rates,"[J] CEPR Discussion Papers 5573, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.2006.
12. Chinn, M., Prasad, E.S., Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries:An Empirical Exploration [J]. Journal of International Economics 59(1), 47--76.2003
13. Clarida, Richard H,Japan, China, and the U.S. Current Account Deficit[J], CATO Journal 25, pp.111-114.2005
14. Cooper, Richard,U.S. Deficit:It is not Only Sustainable, It is Logical,Financial Times[J] (31 October), p.A15.2004
15. Debelle, G., Faruqee, H.,What Determines the Current Account? [J] A Cross-Sectional and Panel Approach. International Monetary Fund Working Paper No.96/58.1996,
16. Dooley, Michael, David Folkerts-Landau and Peter Garber[N], An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System,NBER Working Paper no.9971 (September).2003
17. Dooley, Michael, and Peter Garber. "Is It 1958 or 1968?Three Notes on the Longevity of the Revived Bretton Woods System." In G-7 Current Account imbalances:Sustainability and Adjustment, ed. Richard Clarida,103-32. Chicago:University of Chicago Press[J],2007
18. Edwards, S., Why Are Latin America's Savings Rates So Low? An International Comparative Analysis[J]. Journal of Development Economics 51(1),5--44.1996,
19. Eichengreen, Barry,The Blind Men and the Elephant,Brookings Policy Brief, Washington, D.C.:The Brookings Institution[J] (January).2006
20. Faruqee, Hamid, Douglas Laxton, Dirk Muir and Paolo Pesenti, Smooth Landing or Crash? Model-Based Scenarios of Global Current Account Rebalancing[J], paper presented to the NBER Conference on G7 Current Account Imbalances, Newport, Rhode Island, June.2005
21. Feldstein, M., Horioka, C., Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows. The Economic Journal[J] 90(358),314-329.1980
22. Frankel, J.A., Romer, D., Does Trade Cause Growth? [J]. American Economic Review 89, 379-399.1999
23. Frankel, J.A., Rose, A.K., An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income[J], Quarterly Journal of Economics 117(2),437--466.2002
24. Gereffi, Gary.The Elusive Last Lap in the Quest for Developed-County Status, [J]in Mittelman ed. pp.53-81.1997
25. Ghosh, A.,,International Capital Mobility Amongst the Major Industrialized Countries:Too Little or Too Much?[J]. The Economic Journal 105,107-128.1995
26. Ghosh, A.R., Ostry, J.D., The Current Account in Developing Countries:A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach[J]. World Bank Economic Review 9,305--333.1995
27. Glick, R., Rogoff, K., Global versus Country-Specific Productivity Shocks and the Current Account[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics 35,159--192.1995,
28. Greenaway, D., Morgan, W.C., Wright, P.W., Trade Liberalization and Growth in Developing Countries[J]. Journal of Development Economics 67(1),229--244.2002
29. Greenspan, S. I. & Wieder, S. Developmental patterns and outcomes in infants and children with disorders in relating and communicating:A chart review of 200 cases of children with autistic spectrum diagnoses[J]. Journal of Developmental and Learning Disorders,1,87-141.1997
30. Greenspan, S. I. & Wieder, S. The child with special needs:Encouraging intellectual and emotional growth[J]. Reading, MA:Perseus Books.1998
31. Greenspan, S. I. & Wieder, S. A functional developmental approach to autism spectrum disorders[J]. Journal of the Association for Persons with Severe Handicaps (JASH),24 (3)147-161.1999
32. Greenspan, S. I., Research Support for a Comprehensive Developmental Approach to Autistic Spectrum Disorders and Other Developmental and Learning Disorders:The Developmental,Individual Difference Relationship-Based (DIR(?)) Model. Unpublished manuscript2004
33. Hanson, G., What Has Happened to Wages in Mexico Since NAFTA?[J]. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No.9563.2003
34. Harvey, A.C., Estimating Regression Models with Multiplicative Heteroscedasticity[J]. Econometrica 44(3),461-465.1976
35. Hausmann, Ricardo and Federico Sturzenegger, Dark Matter Makes the U.S. Deficit Disappear, [J] Financial Times (8 December), p. A15.2005
36. Huang, Juann and Angelo Mascaro Return on Cross-Border Investment:Why Does U.S. Investment Abroad Do Better[J]?Technical Paper no.2004-17, Washington, D.C.:Congressional Budget Office (December).2004
37. Irwin, D.A., Tervio, M., Does Trade Raise Income? Evidence from the Twentieth Century[J]. Journal of International Economics 58(1),1-18.2002
38. Jarrett, Peter, Coping with the Inevitable Adjustment in the U.S[J]. Current Account,Economics Department Working Paper no.467, Paris:OECD (December).2005
39. Jee-Hyeong, P. International trade agreements between countries of asymmetric size, Journal of International Economics[J].2000
40. Kitchen, John, Sharecroppers or Shrewd Capitalists? Projections of the U.S. Current Account, International Income Flows, and Net International Debt,unpublished manuscript, Office of Management and Budget (February).15,2006
41. Kraay, A., Ventura, J., Current Accounts in the Long and the Short Run. National Bureau of Economic Research Macroeconomics Annual 2002[M], Cambridge, Massachusetts, pp.65--112. 2002
42. Kraay,Aart and Jaume Ventura."The Dot-Com Bubble, the Bush Deficits, and the U.S. Current Account." In G-7 Current Account imbalances:Sustainability and Adjustment,ed. Richard Clarida,457-91. Chicago:University of Chicago Press[J].2007
43. Lane, Philip R.,and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti."A Global Perspective on External Positions," In G-7 Current Account imbalances:Sustainability and Adjustment, ed. Richard Clarida,67-98. Chicago:University of Chicago Press[J].2007
44. Lawrence, R.Z., Weinstein, D.E., Trade and Growth:Import-led or Export-led? Evidence from Japan and Korea, in Stiglitz, J.E., Yusuf, S. (Eds.), Rethinking the East Asian Miracle[M]. Oxford University Press, Oxford.2001
45. Levy, Mickey D., Worries About the Growing U.S. Trade Deficit are Overstated[J],Bank of America Economics Brief (13 April).2005
46. Loayza, N., Schmidt-Hebbel, K., Serven, L., What Drives Private Savings Across the World? [J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics 82(2),165-181,2000
47. Mandel, Michael, Productivity, the Trade Deficit and Dark Matter, Part I[J],Business Week (21 February), www.businesweek.com.2006
48. Mann, Catherine, Managing Exchange Rates:Achievement of Global ReBalancing or Evidence of Global Co-Dependence?unpublished manuscript, Institute for International Economics (July).2004
49. Maurice Obstfeld, Kenneth Rogoff,The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited,NBER Working Paper No.10869[J] 2005
50. Mendoza, Enrique G., Vincenzo Quadrini, and Jose Victor Rios Rull. Financial Integration, Finan-cial Deepness and Global Imbalances. Unpublished.2007
51. Miller, S.M., Upadhyay, M.P., The Effects of Openness, Trade Orientation, and Human Capital on Total Factor Productivity[J]. Journal of Development Economics 63,399--423. 27,2000,
52. Mussa, Michael, Exchange Rate Adjustments Needed to Reduce Global Payments Imbalances,in C. Fred Bergsten and John Williamson eds, Dollar Adjustment:How Far? Against What? Washington, D.C.:Institute for International Economics, pp.113-138.2004
53. Nicholas Lardy and Morris Goldstein. Breaking Up Is Hard To Do:Global Co-Dependency, Collective Action, and the Challenges of Global Adjustment, CES Forum[J].2005
54. Obstfeld, Maurice, and Kenneth S. Rogoff. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity [J] 2005
55. Obstfeld, Maurice, and Kenneth Rogoff. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics:Is There a Common Cause?" In NBER macroeconomics Annual 2000, ed. B. S. Bernanke and K. Rog -off,339-90. Cambridge, MA:MIT Press[J].2001
56. Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K., Foundations of International Macroeconomics[J]. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.1996.
57. Obstfeld, Maurice and Kenneth Rogoff Perspectives on OECD Capital Market Integration: Implications for U.S. Current Account Adjustment,in Global Economic Integration:Opportunities and Challenges[N], Kansas City:Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pp.169-208.2000
58. Obstfeld, Maurice and Kenneth Rogoff, The Unsustainable U.S. Current Account Position Revisited[J],NBER Working Paper no.10869 (October).2004
59. OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development),2003, The Sources of Economic Growth in the OECD Countries, Paris.
60. Olivier Blanchard, Francesco Giavazzi, Filipa Sa, The U.S. Current Account and the Dollar, NBER Working Paper No.11137[J] 2005
61. Olivier Cattaneo, Gary Gereffi and Cornelia Staritz, Global Value Chains in a Postcrisis World:A Development Perspective [J], Washington, DC:The World Bank,2010
62. Ondrich, J., Richardson, J.D., Zhang, S., Further Investigation of the Link between Trade and Income[J]. Working Paper, Syracuse University.2002
63. Ostry, Sylvia:Technological Change and International Economic Institutions[J], in Satya Dev Gupta ed. pp237-268.1997
64. Plosser, Charles I. A Perspective on the Global Economy, unpublished manuscript, Simon School of Business, University of Rochester (January).2005
65. Rajan, Raghuram, Perspectives on Global Imbalances,www.imf.org (23 January).2006
66. Rajan,Raghuram G Global Current Account Imbalances:Hard Landing or Soft Landing,IMF,discussion Paper, [J] 2005
67. Razin, A., The Dynamic-Optimizing Approach to the Current Account:Theory and Evidence, in Kenen, P. (Eds.), Understanding Interdependence:The Macro-economics of the Open Economy. Princeton, New Jersey.1995
68. Richard N.Cooper, Living with Global Imbalance:A Con-trarian View,in Policy Briefs in International Economics,No. [J] PB05-3,Nov.2005。
69. Roubini, Nouriel and Brad Setser, The U.S. as a Net Debtor:The Sustainability of the U.S. External Imbalances,unpublished manuscript, Stern School of Business, New York University. 2004
70. Setser, Brad, Mandel versus Setser. Round 2. More on Intangible Exports and Dark Matter,www.rgemonitor.com (21 February).2006
71. Sprinz, D. F and Wolinsky-Nahmias. Models, numbers, and Case, Methods for studying international relations, The University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor[J].2004
72. Wei, S., Is Globalization Good for the Poor in China? [J]. Finance and Development 39(3), 26--29.2002a
73. Wei, S., China as a Window to the World:Trade Openness, Living Standards and Income Inequality, in Gruen, D., O'Brien, T., Lawson, J. (Eds.), Globalization, Living Standards and Inequality. Reserve Bank of Australia and Australian Treasury[J], Canberra, pp.109--117.2002b,
74. Wei, S., Wu, Y., Globalization and Inequality:Evidence from Within China[J]. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No.8611.2001
75. Whitman, j. The limits of global governance Routledge[J].2005
76. Yoshitomi, Masaru, Global Imbalances and East Asian Monetary Cooperation,in Duck-Koo Chung and Barry Eichengreen eds, Toward an East Asian Exchange Rate Regime[J] (forthcoming) 2006
77. Zhang, S., Three Essays on the Empirical Linkage between Trade and Income. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, Syracuse University.2003
78. Ronald McKinnon and Gunther Schnabl, The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating,and Original Sin Review of Development Economics,8(3),331-360,2004
79. Calvo, Guillermo and Carmen Reinhart, "Fear of Floating," [J] Quarterly Journal of Economics 117,2002:379-408.
80. Chin, Daniel and Preston Miller, Fixed Versus Floating Exchange Rates:a Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis, [J],European Economic Review 42 1998,1221-49.
81. Eichengreen, Barry and Ricardo Hausmann, Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility,[J] NBER working paper 7418,1999
82. Fischer, Stanley, On the Need for a Lender of Last Resort,"address to the American Economic Association,3 January, New York,1999
83. Fischer, Stanley, "Exchange Rate Regimes:Is the Bipolar View Correct?" Journal of Economic Perspectives 15,2001:3-24.
84. Frankel, Jeffrey and Shang-Jin Wei, Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc? Exchange Rate Policies in East Asian Economies," in Takatoshi Ito and Anne Krueger (eds.), Macroeconomic Linkages:Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, Chicago,1994:295-329.
85. Goyal, Rishi and Ronald McKinnon, Japan's Negative Risk Premium in Interest Rates:the Liquidity Trap and Fall in Bank Lending," World Economy 26,2003:339-63.
86. Hernandez, Leonardo and Peter Montiel,"Post-crisis Exchange Rate Policy in Five Asian Countries:Filling in the'Hollow Middle'?" [J] Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 17,2003:336-69.
87. Hillebrand, Eric and Gunther Schnabl, "The Effects of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention GARCH Estimation and Change Point Detection," [J] Japan Bank Institute for International Cooperation, discussion paper 6,2003
88. Kawai, Masahiro, "Exchange Rate Arrangements in East Asia:Lessons from the 1997-98 Currency Crisis," [J] Bank of Japan Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, discussion paper 2002-E-17,2002
89. Kawai, Masahiro and Shigeru Akiyama, Implications of the Currency Crisis for Exchange Rate Arrangements in Emerging East Asia. [J] World Bank, East Asia Department, Washington, DC(2000).
90. Kwan, Chi-Hung, Yen Bloc:Toward Economic Integration in Asia[J], Washington, DC: BrookingsInstitution,2001
91. McKinnon, Ronald, "The East Asian Dollar Standard:Life after Death?" Economic Notes,Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena 29,2000:31-82.——, "After the Crisis, the East Asian Dollar Standard Resurrected," in Joseph Stiglitz andYusuf Shahid (eds.), Rethinking the East Asian Miracle, New York:Oxford University Press,2001:197-244.
92. McKinnon, Ronald and Kenichi Ohno, Dollar and Yen:Resolving Economic Conflict between the United States and Japan[M], Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,1997
93. McKinnon, Ronald and Huw Pill, "Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets:Moral Hazard and International Overborrowing," [J]Oxford Review of Economic Policy 15,1999:423-64.
94. McKinnon, Ronald and Gunther Schnabl, "Synchronized Business Cycles in East Asia: Fluctuations in the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate," World Economy 26 (2003a):1067-88.——, "China:a Stabilizing or Deflationary Influence in East Asia? The Problem of Conflicted Virtue." [J] HKIMR working paper 23/2003 (2003b).
95. Mussa, Michael et al., "Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy," [J]IMF occasional paper,2000
96. Ogawa, Eiji and Takatoshi Ito, "On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement," [J]Journal of Japanese and International Economies 16,2002:317-34.
97. Rajan, Ramkishen, "Exchange Rate Policy Options for Post-crisis Southeast Asia," [J] World Economy 25,2002:137-63.
98. Reinhart, Carmen, "The Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates," [J] American Economic Review 90,2000:65-70.
99. Sato, Kiyotaka, "The International Use of the Japanese Yen:the Case of Japan's Trade with East Asia", [J]World Economy 22,1999:547-84.
100. Schnabl, Gunther, "De jure versus de facto Exchange Rate Stabilization in Central and Eastern Europe," [J] Aussenwirtschaft 59,2004:171-90.
101. Slavov, Slavi, "Should Small Open Economies Keep All their Eggs in One Basket? The Role of Balance Sheet Effects," unpublished manuscript 2002
102. Williamson, John, Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets:Reviving the Intermediate Option[J], Washington, DC:Institute for International Economics,2000
103. World Bank, The East Asian Miracle:Economic Growth and Public Policy, [J]Oxford: Oxford University Press,1993
104. Sebastian Edwards, "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals," [J]NBER Working Papers 11170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.2005.
2 Noth, DC,《理解经济变革的过程》," Understanding the Process of Economic Change", North, Princeton University Press,第3页
2 张幼文.要素流动与全球经济失衡的历史影响[J].国际经济评论,2006(3)
1 国际货币基金组织.世界经济展歇M].北京：中国金融出版社,1997：45
2 斯蒂格利茨.全球化及其不满(M).北京：机械工业出版社,2004：3.
1 张幼文,知识经济的生产要素及其国际分布,中国工业经济,2002(8)P34-36
1 H.Siebert, Regional Economic Growth:Theory and Policy, Scranton:Intenrational Textbook Company, 1969, P.76.
1 阿尔钦,德姆塞茨.生产、信息费用和经济组织.财产权利与制度变迁：产权学派与新制度学派泽文集[M].上海：上海人民出版社,2004：25-59.
2 周其仁.市场里的企业：一个人力资本与非人力资本的特别合约[J].经济研究,19%,6：71-79.
1 Solow,1956 A contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics,70,65-94.; Barro & Sala-i-Martin,1995, Economic Growth. McGraw Hill:New York.
1 张幼文.要素流动与全球经济失衡的历史影响[J].国际经济评论,2006(3)
1.Chinn, M.D. and Prasad, E.S".Medium- term Determinants of Trade Accounts in Industrial and Developing Coun-tries:An Empirical Exploration", Journal of International Economics, Vol.59,2003,47-76.
1 高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模—Eviews应用及实例[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006：154-158.
1. 北京师范大学金融研究中心课题组.如何界定和保持中国外汇储备的适度规模[J].国际经济评论.2007
2. 曹阳.李剑武.人民币实际汇率水平与波动对进出口贸易的影响[J].世界经济研究.2006(8)
3. 曹瑜.汇率制度改革以来实际汇率升值兑中美贸易影响的实证研究[J].世界经济研究,2008(7)
4. 卢向前,戴国强.人民币实际汇率波动对我国进出口的影响：1994—2003[J].经济研究,2005(5)
5. 彭甚龙.人民币汇率变动与中美贸易失衡研究[D].浙江大学硕士学位论文,2009
6. 沈国兵.美中贸易逆差与人民币汇率的实证研究[J].南开经济研究,2005(3)
7. 宋兆晗,卜建明,杨晓森. “J”曲线效应与中美贸易收支[J].上海金融,2008(1)
8. 程均丽,孟祥禹,孙立兰.中国鼓励资本外流政策的风险分析[J].西南金融,2007(6)
9. 程新章.全球价值链治理模式——模块生产网络研究[J].科技进步与对策,2006(05)
10.池仁勇,邵小芬,吴宝.全球价值链治理,驱动力和创新理论探析[J].科技管202理研究,2005,(12).
11.崔大沪.外商直接投资与中国的加工贸易[J].世界经济研究,2002(6)
12.戴世宏.人民币汇率与中日贸易收支实证研究[J].金融研究,2006(6)
13.丁聘聘.外部均衡与人民币汇率：一个分析框架[J].财经论丛,2005(7)
14.丁一凡.美国的债务、全球泡沫及其对世界的影响[J].国际经济评论.2006(2)
15.杜晓君.制造业的国际转移规律和趋势[J].经济理论与经济管理,2003(6)
16.范方志,赵大平.人民币汇率变化及其传递对中国外贸平衡影响的实证分析[J].中央财经大学学报,2006(2)
17.方明.加快结构调整化解升值压力[N].金融时报,2006(5)
18.傅瑜,徐艳,何泽荣.论全球经济失衡[J].经济学家,2006(6.
19.公衍照,任启平.当代国际货币体制与全球经济失衡[J].集团经济研究,2006(10)
20.谷宇,高铁梅.人民币汇率波动性对中国进出口影响的分析[J].世界经济,2007(10).
21.管涛.中国国际收支调节应从国际经济入手[J].国际经济评论.2009(3)
22.何帆.人民币汇率调整对外贸和外资的影响[J].中国审计,2003(10)
23.何帆.全球国际收支失衡与人民币汇率政策调整[J].山东财政学院学报,2005(3)
24.何泽荣.中国转型期国际收支研究[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2006.
25.赫尔穆特·施密特.全球化,政治、经济与文化的挑战.德国出版社.1998,P14-16
26.华民.世界经济失衡：概念、成因与中国的选择[J].吉林大学社会科学学报.2007(1)
27.黄海洲.中国金融市场开始影响全球[J].21世纪经济报道.2007(7)
28.黄仁伟.美国全球化战略的经济因素及对我国经济安全的影响[J].世界经济研究.2004(2)
29.黄瑞玲.黄忠平.中国国际收支失衡：理论解析与政策调整[J].世界经济与政治论坛,2004(4)
30.黄素庵.美国经济实力的衰落[M].世界知识出版社.1990
31.江爱平.人民币汇率变动对中美贸易失衡的影响——基于马歇尔——勒纳条件的实证分析[J].生产力研究,2010(10)
32.姜波克.均衡汇率理论和政策的新框架[J].中国社会科学,2006(1)
33.姜波克.开放条件下的宏观金融管理(第四卷)[M].上海： 复旦大学出版社,1999
34.姜巍.当前我国宏观经济的内外失衡及调整[J].国际经贸探索,2006(7)
35.金三林.我国国际收支的新趋势[J].中国国情国力,2006(11)
36.李皓,章冬梅.人民币实际汇率及波动率对中美贸易的影响——基于协整检验和ECM的实证分析[J].经济问题,2011(2)
37.王中华.贸易收支与实际汇率——中美、中日比较研究[J].经济科学,2007(3).
38.谢建国,陈漓高.人民币汇率与贸易收支：协整研究与冲击分解[J].世界经济,2002(9).
39.许少强,马丹.人民币实际汇率对我国贸易收支影响的实证分析[J].新金融,2005(2)
40.叶永刚等.人民币实际有效汇率和对外贸易收支的关系[J].金融研究,2006(4).
41.钟永红.人民币汇改对中美贸易收支影响的实证分析[J].统计观察,2007(9).
42.李天栋.增长与就业双重约束下人民币均衡汇率的新范式[M].上海： 上海财经大学出版社,2007
43.李向阳.全球经济失衡及其对中国经济的影响.国际经济评论.2006(2)
44.李扬.全球经济失衡与中国经济发展[M].经济管理出版社.2006
45.李扬.全球经济失衡与中国宏观经济政策[J].新金融.2006(4)
46.李扬、余维彬.全球经济失衡与中国经济发展战略[M].经济管理出版社.2006
47.李长久.大公司兼并与世界经济全球化[D].1997(12)
48.刘安奎,梁涛,辜晓川,杨华强,王练.我国国际收支失衡原因及治理对策初探[J].西南金融,2007(6)
49.刘光溪.论经济转型期中国汇率改革作用的局限性——客观、冷静地对待国际收支“双顺差”[M].复旦学报(社会科学版),2006(6)
50.刘华,卢孔标.我国国际收支失衡的贸易根源及其对策[J].广西金融研究,2006(9)
51.卢锋.中国的双顺差、日本经验及失衡调整[J].国际经济评论,2006(9)
52.卢孔标.区域经济金融合作：东亚应对全球失衡的必然选择[J].亚太经济,2006(4)
53.罗伯特·基欧汉,海伦·米尔纳编,姜鹏、董素华译.国际化与国内政治[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2003
54.奈瑞·伍茨.全球经济治理：强化多边制度[J].外交评论,2008(12)
55.伊莉莎白·埃克诺米、米歇尔·奥克森伯格主编,华宏勋等译.中国参与世界[M].北京：新华出版社,2001
56.王逸舟主编.磨合中的建构：中国与国际组织关系的多视角透视[M].北京：中国发展出版社,2003
57.约翰斯顿(江忆恩)、罗斯(陆伯彬)主编.与中国接触：应对一个崛起的大国[M].北京：新华出版社,2001(1)
58.裴平,孙兆斌.中国的国际收支失衡与货币错配[J].国际金融研究,2006(8)
59.彭兴韵.控制外汇储备过快增长的长远战略在于人民币的国际化[J].经济社会体制比较,2006(6)
60.皮萨尼-费里,全球国际收支失衡的可持续性、调整是基于对策建议[J].国际经济评论,2006(9)
61.商务部课题组,中美贸易失衡的深层次原因与宏观经济影响(内部资料),2006年
62.沈国兵,美中贸易逆差与人民币汇率：实证研究[J],南开经济研究,2004(6)
63.沈国兵,外商在华直接投资与中美贸易平衡问题[J],财经研究,2005(9)
64.沈国兵.美中贸易逆差与人民币汇率：实证研究[J].南开经济研究,2004(6)
65.施建淮,怎样正确分析美国经常项目逆差,国际经济评论,2005(7)
66.斯蒂格利茨.全球贸易的灾难：国际货币基金组织会把矛头指向元凶吗?[J].海峡时报, 2006(5).
67.宋国友,中美经贸关系中的不对称性,世界经济与政治论坛,2007(3)
68.宋泓,美国霸权地位与中美经贸关系,国际经济评论,2006(9-10)
69.孙杰.亚洲债券市场的发展与全球性国际收支失衡的调整[J].世界经济,2006(1)
70.唐建伟.我国国际收支双顺差分析——现状、原因及影响[J].国际贸易,2006(5)
71.唐建伟.我国国际收支双顺差分析——现状、原因及影响[J].国际贸易,2007(5)
72.王世华,谭小芬.全球国际收支失衡：亚洲和欧洲的观点综述[J].国际经济评论.2006(9)
73.王晓雷.美国相对贸易逆差与贸易保护政策的失灵[J].当代财经,2006(4)
74.王晓雷.美国次级抵押贷款危机成因[J].农村金融研究,2007(10)
75.王信,两次经济全球化时期主导国家国际收支的根本差异[J].国际经济评论,2007(2)
76.王叙果.金融约束：经常项目失衡分析的新思路[J].财贸经济,2006(9)
77.夏斌.中期政策：改、疏、堵、冲、内——评第二次提高存款准备金率[J].银行家,2006(8).
78.萧琛,论美国贸易赤字对新经济增长的促进作用[J].世界经济与政治,2006(4)
79.谢建国,陈漓高.人民币汇率与贸易收支：协整研究与冲击分解[J].世界经济,2002(9)
80.谢建国、陈漓高,人民币汇率与贸易收支：协整研究与冲击分解[J].世界经济.2007(9)
81.宿景祥,储蓄不足—美国经常账户赤字的根源[J].国际贸易,2003(9)
82.徐明棋,美国国际收支经常账户逆差不断扩大对世界经济的影响[J].国际金融研究.2006(4)
83.许雄齐,张宗益,康季军.财政赤字与贸易收支不平衡：来自中国经济的经验数据(1978-2003)[J].世界经济,2006(2)
84.姚秦,减持美国国债：各国央行意欲何为?[J].中国外汇,2007(12)
85.姚枝仲,齐俊妍.全球国际收支失衡及变化趋势[J].世界经济,2006(3)
86.姚枝仲.美国贸易逆差的可持续性：调整及其影响[J].国际经济评论.2006(3)
87.余永定,覃东海.中国的双顺差：性质、根源和解决方法[J].世界经济,2006(3)
88.余永定.全球国际收支失衡：中国视角[J].国际经济评论,2006(9)
89.袁冬梅,美元特权对美国贸易逆差的影响探析[J].国际贸易问题,2007(1)
90.岳昌君,国际贸易,比较优势与技术传递[D].北京大学,2000
91.张帆,美国跨国银行与国际金融[J].中信出版社,1986(5)
92.张明,透视美国次级债危机及其对中国的影响[J].国际经济评论,2007(5)
93.张燕生,全球经济失衡条件下的政策选择[J].国际经济评论,2006(2)
94.张茵,万广华.试析我国贸易余额波动的成因[J].经济研究,2008(4)
95.张幼文.当代国家优势[M].上海：上海远东出版社,2003.
96.张幼文.经济全球化与国家经济实力[M].国际经济评论,2005(9)
97.张幼文.开放经济发展目标的动态演进[J].国际经济评论,2006(1)
98.张幼文.全球化经济的要素分布与收入分配[J].世界经济与政治,2002(10)
99.张幼文.体制竞争—全球化经济机制与开放战略[M].上海：上海财经大学出版社,2004.
100. 张幼文.新开放观：对外开放理论与战略再探索[M].北京：人民出版社,2007.
101. 张幼文.要素集聚：中国在全球化经济中的地位[J].文汇报,2006(5).
102. 张幼文.要素流动与全球经济失衡的历史影响[J].国际经济评论,2006(3)
103. 张幼文.知识经济的生产要素及其国际分布[J].经济学动态,2004(5)
104. 张幼文.知识经济的生产要素及其国际分布[J].中国工业经济,2002(6)
105. 傅瑜等,论全球经济失衡[J].经济学家,2006(7)
106. 中国人民银行货币政策分析小组.中国货币政策执行报告(二00六年第二季度)[N].中国证券报,2006-8-10.
107. 周宇.全球经济治理与中国的参与战略[J].世界经济研究,2011(11).
108. 曲博.金融危机背景下的中国与全球经济治理[J].外交评论,2010(6).
109. 李稻葵.富国、穷国和中国：全球治理与中国的责任[J].国际经济评论,2011(4)
110. 王国兴,成靖.G20机制化与全球经济治理改革[J].国际展望,2010(3)
111. 孙伊然.全球经济治理的观念变迁：重建内嵌的自由主义?[J].外交评论,2011(3)
112. 庞中英.1945年以来的全球经济治理及其教训[J].国际观察,2011(2)
113. 黄薇.全球经济治理之全球经济再平衡[J].南开学报,2012(1)
114. 周宇.人民币升值加剧全球经济失衡的风险[J].世界经济研究.2006(11)
1. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura,2007. The Dot-Com Bubble, the Bush Deficits, and the U.S. Current Account, [J],NBER Chapters, in:G7 Current Account Imbalances:Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 457-496 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.2007
2. Backus, David and Frederic Lambert, Current Account Fact and Fiction[J],unpublished manuscript, Stern School of Business, New York University.2005
3. Baldwin, R.E.,2004, Openness and Growth:What's the Empirical Relationship? [J], in: Baldwin, R.E., Winters, L.A. (Eds.), Challenges to Globalization:Analyzing the Economics. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp.499-521.
4. Barrie Axford The Global System:Economics, Politics, and Culture[J] St. Martin's Press, 1995-250
5. Barry Eichengreen Eicbengreen(2006a) Global Imbalances:The New Economy, the Dark Matter, the Savvy Investor,and the Standard Analysis[J],University of California, Berkeley March 2006
6. Bernanke, Ben, The Global Savings Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit[J],(10 March), Washington, D.C.:Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.2005
7. Blanchard, Olivier, Francesco Givazzi and Filipa Sa, The U.S. Current Account and the Dollar[J],Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1, pp.1-49.2005
8. Bosworth, B., Collins, S.M., The Empirics of Growth:An Update. Manuscript[J]. The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C..2003
9. Buiter, Willem,Dark Matter or Cold Fusion? [J]Global Economics Paper no.136, London: Goldman Sachs (16 January).2006
10. Caballero, Ricardo & Farhi, Emmanuel & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, An Equilibrium Model of 'Global Imbalances' and Low Interest Rates,CEPR Discussion Papers 5573, [J] 2006
11. Caballero, Ricardo & Farhi, Emmanuel & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, An Equilibrium Model of 'Global Imbalances' and Low Interest Rates,"[J] CEPR Discussion Papers 5573, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.2006.
12. Chinn, M., Prasad, E.S., Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries:An Empirical Exploration [J]. Journal of International Economics 59(1), 47--76.2003
13. Clarida, Richard H,Japan, China, and the U.S. Current Account Deficit[J], CATO Journal 25, pp.111-114.2005
14. Cooper, Richard,U.S. Deficit:It is not Only Sustainable, It is Logical,Financial Times[J] (31 October), p.A15.2004
15. Debelle, G., Faruqee, H.,What Determines the Current Account? [J] A Cross-Sectional and Panel Approach. International Monetary Fund Working Paper No.96/58.1996,
16. Dooley, Michael, David Folkerts-Landau and Peter Garber[N], An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System,NBER Working Paper no.9971 (September).2003
17. Dooley, Michael, and Peter Garber. "Is It 1958 or 1968?Three Notes on the Longevity of the Revived Bretton Woods System." In G-7 Current Account imbalances:Sustainability and Adjustment, ed. Richard Clarida,103-32. Chicago:University of Chicago Press[J],2007
18. Edwards, S., Why Are Latin America's Savings Rates So Low? An International Comparative Analysis[J]. Journal of Development Economics 51(1),5--44.1996,
19. Eichengreen, Barry,The Blind Men and the Elephant,Brookings Policy Brief, Washington, D.C.:The Brookings Institution[J] (January).2006
20. Faruqee, Hamid, Douglas Laxton, Dirk Muir and Paolo Pesenti, Smooth Landing or Crash? Model-Based Scenarios of Global Current Account Rebalancing[J], paper presented to the NBER Conference on G7 Current Account Imbalances, Newport, Rhode Island, June.2005
21. Feldstein, M., Horioka, C., Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows. The Economic Journal[J] 90(358),314-329.1980
22. Frankel, J.A., Romer, D., Does Trade Cause Growth? [J]. American Economic Review 89, 379-399.1999
23. Frankel, J.A., Rose, A.K., An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income[J], Quarterly Journal of Economics 117(2),437--466.2002
24. Gereffi, Gary.The Elusive Last Lap in the Quest for Developed-County Status, [J]in Mittelman ed. pp.53-81.1997
25. Ghosh, A.,,International Capital Mobility Amongst the Major Industrialized Countries:Too Little or Too Much?[J]. The Economic Journal 105,107-128.1995
26. Ghosh, A.R., Ostry, J.D., The Current Account in Developing Countries:A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach[J]. World Bank Economic Review 9,305--333.1995
27. Glick, R., Rogoff, K., Global versus Country-Specific Productivity Shocks and the Current Account[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics 35,159--192.1995,
28. Greenaway, D., Morgan, W.C., Wright, P.W., Trade Liberalization and Growth in Developing Countries[J]. Journal of Development Economics 67(1),229--244.2002
29. Greenspan, S. I. & Wieder, S. Developmental patterns and outcomes in infants and children with disorders in relating and communicating:A chart review of 200 cases of children with autistic spectrum diagnoses[J]. Journal of Developmental and Learning Disorders,1,87-141.1997
30. Greenspan, S. I. & Wieder, S. The child with special needs:Encouraging intellectual and emotional growth[J]. Reading, MA:Perseus Books.1998
31. Greenspan, S. I. & Wieder, S. A functional developmental approach to autism spectrum disorders[J]. Journal of the Association for Persons with Severe Handicaps (JASH),24 (3)147-161.1999
32. Greenspan, S. I., Research Support for a Comprehensive Developmental Approach to Autistic Spectrum Disorders and Other Developmental and Learning Disorders:The Developmental,Individual Difference Relationship-Based (DIR(?)) Model. Unpublished manuscript2004
33. Hanson, G., What Has Happened to Wages in Mexico Since NAFTA?[J]. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No.9563.2003
34. Harvey, A.C., Estimating Regression Models with Multiplicative Heteroscedasticity[J]. Econometrica 44(3),461-465.1976
35. Hausmann, Ricardo and Federico Sturzenegger, Dark Matter Makes the U.S. Deficit Disappear, [J] Financial Times (8 December), p. A15.2005
36. Huang, Juann and Angelo Mascaro Return on Cross-Border Investment:Why Does U.S. Investment Abroad Do Better[J]?Technical Paper no.2004-17, Washington, D.C.:Congressional Budget Office (December).2004
37. Irwin, D.A., Tervio, M., Does Trade Raise Income? Evidence from the Twentieth Century[J]. Journal of International Economics 58(1),1-18.2002
38. Jarrett, Peter, Coping with the Inevitable Adjustment in the U.S[J]. Current Account,Economics Department Working Paper no.467, Paris:OECD (December).2005
39. Jee-Hyeong, P. International trade agreements between countries of asymmetric size, Journal of International Economics[J].2000
40. Kitchen, John, Sharecroppers or Shrewd Capitalists? Projections of the U.S. Current Account, International Income Flows, and Net International Debt,unpublished manuscript, Office of Management and Budget (February).15,2006
41. Kraay, A., Ventura, J., Current Accounts in the Long and the Short Run. National Bureau of Economic Research Macroeconomics Annual 2002[M], Cambridge, Massachusetts, pp.65--112. 2002
42. Kraay,Aart and Jaume Ventura."The Dot-Com Bubble, the Bush Deficits, and the U.S. Current Account." In G-7 Current Account imbalances:Sustainability and Adjustment,ed. Richard Clarida,457-91. Chicago:University of Chicago Press[J].2007
43. Lane, Philip R.,and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti."A Global Perspective on External Positions," In G-7 Current Account imbalances:Sustainability and Adjustment, ed. Richard Clarida,67-98. Chicago:University of Chicago Press[J].2007
44. Lawrence, R.Z., Weinstein, D.E., Trade and Growth:Import-led or Export-led? Evidence from Japan and Korea, in Stiglitz, J.E., Yusuf, S. (Eds.), Rethinking the East Asian Miracle[M]. Oxford University Press, Oxford.2001
45. Levy, Mickey D., Worries About the Growing U.S. Trade Deficit are Overstated[J],Bank of America Economics Brief (13 April).2005
46. Loayza, N., Schmidt-Hebbel, K., Serven, L., What Drives Private Savings Across the World? [J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics 82(2),165-181,2000
47. Mandel, Michael, Productivity, the Trade Deficit and Dark Matter, Part I[J],Business Week (21 February), www.businesweek.com.2006
48. Mann, Catherine, Managing Exchange Rates:Achievement of Global ReBalancing or Evidence of Global Co-Dependence?unpublished manuscript, Institute for International Economics (July).2004
49. Maurice Obstfeld, Kenneth Rogoff,The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited,NBER Working Paper No.10869[J] 2005
50. Mendoza, Enrique G., Vincenzo Quadrini, and Jose Victor Rios Rull. Financial Integration, Finan-cial Deepness and Global Imbalances. Unpublished.2007
51. Miller, S.M., Upadhyay, M.P., The Effects of Openness, Trade Orientation, and Human Capital on Total Factor Productivity[J]. Journal of Development Economics 63,399--423. 27,2000,
52. Mussa, Michael, Exchange Rate Adjustments Needed to Reduce Global Payments Imbalances,in C. Fred Bergsten and John Williamson eds, Dollar Adjustment:How Far? Against What? Washington, D.C.:Institute for International Economics, pp.113-138.2004
53. Nicholas Lardy and Morris Goldstein. Breaking Up Is Hard To Do:Global Co-Dependency, Collective Action, and the Challenges of Global Adjustment, CES Forum[J].2005
54. Obstfeld, Maurice, and Kenneth S. Rogoff. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity [J] 2005
55. Obstfeld, Maurice, and Kenneth Rogoff. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics:Is There a Common Cause?" In NBER macroeconomics Annual 2000, ed. B. S. Bernanke and K. Rog -off,339-90. Cambridge, MA:MIT Press[J].2001
56. Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K., Foundations of International Macroeconomics[J]. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.1996.
57. Obstfeld, Maurice and Kenneth Rogoff Perspectives on OECD Capital Market Integration: Implications for U.S. Current Account Adjustment,in Global Economic Integration:Opportunities and Challenges[N], Kansas City:Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pp.169-208.2000
58. Obstfeld, Maurice and Kenneth Rogoff, The Unsustainable U.S. Current Account Position Revisited[J],NBER Working Paper no.10869 (October).2004
59. OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development),2003, The Sources of Economic Growth in the OECD Countries, Paris.
60. Olivier Blanchard, Francesco Giavazzi, Filipa Sa, The U.S. Current Account and the Dollar, NBER Working Paper No.11137[J] 2005
61. Olivier Cattaneo, Gary Gereffi and Cornelia Staritz, Global Value Chains in a Postcrisis World:A Development Perspective [J], Washington, DC:The World Bank,2010
62. Ondrich, J., Richardson, J.D., Zhang, S., Further Investigation of the Link between Trade and Income[J]. Working Paper, Syracuse University.2002
63. Ostry, Sylvia:Technological Change and International Economic Institutions[J], in Satya Dev Gupta ed. pp237-268.1997
64. Plosser, Charles I. A Perspective on the Global Economy, unpublished manuscript, Simon School of Business, University of Rochester (January).2005
65. Rajan, Raghuram, Perspectives on Global Imbalances,www.imf.org (23 January).2006
66. Rajan,Raghuram G Global Current Account Imbalances:Hard Landing or Soft Landing,IMF,discussion Paper, [J] 2005
67. Razin, A., The Dynamic-Optimizing Approach to the Current Account:Theory and Evidence, in Kenen, P. (Eds.), Understanding Interdependence:The Macro-economics of the Open Economy. Princeton, New Jersey.1995
68. Richard N.Cooper, Living with Global Imbalance:A Con-trarian View,in Policy Briefs in International Economics,No. [J] PB05-3,Nov.2005。
69. Roubini, Nouriel and Brad Setser, The U.S. as a Net Debtor:The Sustainability of the U.S. External Imbalances,unpublished manuscript, Stern School of Business, New York University. 2004
70. Setser, Brad, Mandel versus Setser. Round 2. More on Intangible Exports and Dark Matter,www.rgemonitor.com (21 February).2006
71. Sprinz, D. F and Wolinsky-Nahmias. Models, numbers, and Case, Methods for studying international relations, The University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor[J].2004
72. Wei, S., Is Globalization Good for the Poor in China? [J]. Finance and Development 39(3), 26--29.2002a
73. Wei, S., China as a Window to the World:Trade Openness, Living Standards and Income Inequality, in Gruen, D., O'Brien, T., Lawson, J. (Eds.), Globalization, Living Standards and Inequality. Reserve Bank of Australia and Australian Treasury[J], Canberra, pp.109--117.2002b,
74. Wei, S., Wu, Y., Globalization and Inequality:Evidence from Within China[J]. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No.8611.2001
75. Whitman, j. The limits of global governance Routledge[J].2005
76. Yoshitomi, Masaru, Global Imbalances and East Asian Monetary Cooperation,in Duck-Koo Chung and Barry Eichengreen eds, Toward an East Asian Exchange Rate Regime[J] (forthcoming) 2006
77. Zhang, S., Three Essays on the Empirical Linkage between Trade and Income. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, Syracuse University.2003
78. Ronald McKinnon and Gunther Schnabl, The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating,and Original Sin Review of Development Economics,8(3),331-360,2004
79. Calvo, Guillermo and Carmen Reinhart, "Fear of Floating," [J] Quarterly Journal of Economics 117,2002:379-408.
80. Chin, Daniel and Preston Miller, Fixed Versus Floating Exchange Rates:a Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis, [J],European Economic Review 42 1998,1221-49.
81. Eichengreen, Barry and Ricardo Hausmann, Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility,[J] NBER working paper 7418,1999
82. Fischer, Stanley, On the Need for a Lender of Last Resort,"address to the American Economic Association,3 January, New York,1999
83. Fischer, Stanley, "Exchange Rate Regimes:Is the Bipolar View Correct?" Journal of Economic Perspectives 15,2001:3-24.
84. Frankel, Jeffrey and Shang-Jin Wei, Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc? Exchange Rate Policies in East Asian Economies," in Takatoshi Ito and Anne Krueger (eds.), Macroeconomic Linkages:Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, Chicago,1994:295-329.
85. Goyal, Rishi and Ronald McKinnon, Japan's Negative Risk Premium in Interest Rates:the Liquidity Trap and Fall in Bank Lending," World Economy 26,2003:339-63.
86. Hernandez, Leonardo and Peter Montiel,"Post-crisis Exchange Rate Policy in Five Asian Countries:Filling in the'Hollow Middle'?" [J] Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 17,2003:336-69.
87. Hillebrand, Eric and Gunther Schnabl, "The Effects of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention GARCH Estimation and Change Point Detection," [J] Japan Bank Institute for International Cooperation, discussion paper 6,2003
88. Kawai, Masahiro, "Exchange Rate Arrangements in East Asia:Lessons from the 1997-98 Currency Crisis," [J] Bank of Japan Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, discussion paper 2002-E-17,2002
89. Kawai, Masahiro and Shigeru Akiyama, Implications of the Currency Crisis for Exchange Rate Arrangements in Emerging East Asia. [J] World Bank, East Asia Department, Washington, DC(2000).
90. Kwan, Chi-Hung, Yen Bloc:Toward Economic Integration in Asia[J], Washington, DC: BrookingsInstitution,2001
91. McKinnon, Ronald, "The East Asian Dollar Standard:Life after Death?" Economic Notes,Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena 29,2000:31-82.——, "After the Crisis, the East Asian Dollar Standard Resurrected," in Joseph Stiglitz andYusuf Shahid (eds.), Rethinking the East Asian Miracle, New York:Oxford University Press,2001:197-244.
92. McKinnon, Ronald and Kenichi Ohno, Dollar and Yen:Resolving Economic Conflict between the United States and Japan[M], Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,1997
93. McKinnon, Ronald and Huw Pill, "Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets:Moral Hazard and International Overborrowing," [J]Oxford Review of Economic Policy 15,1999:423-64.
94. McKinnon, Ronald and Gunther Schnabl, "Synchronized Business Cycles in East Asia: Fluctuations in the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate," World Economy 26 (2003a):1067-88.——, "China:a Stabilizing or Deflationary Influence in East Asia? The Problem of Conflicted Virtue." [J] HKIMR working paper 23/2003 (2003b).
95. Mussa, Michael et al., "Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy," [J]IMF occasional paper,2000
96. Ogawa, Eiji and Takatoshi Ito, "On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement," [J]Journal of Japanese and International Economies 16,2002:317-34.
97. Rajan, Ramkishen, "Exchange Rate Policy Options for Post-crisis Southeast Asia," [J] World Economy 25,2002:137-63.
98. Reinhart, Carmen, "The Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates," [J] American Economic Review 90,2000:65-70.
99. Sato, Kiyotaka, "The International Use of the Japanese Yen:the Case of Japan's Trade with East Asia", [J]World Economy 22,1999:547-84.
100. Schnabl, Gunther, "De jure versus de facto Exchange Rate Stabilization in Central and Eastern Europe," [J] Aussenwirtschaft 59,2004:171-90.
101. Slavov, Slavi, "Should Small Open Economies Keep All their Eggs in One Basket? The Role of Balance Sheet Effects," unpublished manuscript 2002
102. Williamson, John, Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets:Reviving the Intermediate Option[J], Washington, DC:Institute for International Economics,2000
103. World Bank, The East Asian Miracle:Economic Growth and Public Policy, [J]Oxford: Oxford University Press,1993
104. Sebastian Edwards, "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals," [J]NBER Working Papers 11170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.2005.