基于相邻效应分析的住宅地产开发选址决策研究
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摘要
项目地段的开发价值评估对选址已经体现出不可替代的重要性。而项目地段相邻的自然环境、经济环境、社会人文环境在很大程度上影响着项目地段的开发价值。也就是说在地产开发选址决策中相邻效应分析渐渐体现出其重要性。
这篇论文研究相邻效应与住宅地产选址决策问题,从相邻效应的角度出发,依托经济学原理并结合统计学、社会学和土地学理论,使用定量与定性相结合的方法来探索这一全新领域。
全文从结构上浓缩为对以下三个问题的探讨和解答过程:①什么是相邻效应?或者问相邻效应主要研究什么?②相邻效应如何评价?③假设可以较为准确地评价相邻效应,那么如何利用相邻效应分析来做出住宅地产选址的正确决策?
因此,全文按下述几个方面进行组织:
首先,在文献综述和理论依据的基础上,论文对相邻效应的概念进行了界定,并分析了相邻效应的成因。
其次,通过理论分析与实例应用相结合的方法,论文一方面利用层次分析方法建立了相邻效应评价理论体系;另一方面,应用相邻效应层次分析模型对重庆两个实际地块进行了比较选优。探讨了该模型的优缺点,解答了第二个问题。然后,通过对实例应用的分析,设计出了基于相邻效应分析的住宅地产开发选址决策的流程,解答了第三个问题。
最后,在三个核心疑问破解后,整合全文主要论点,归纳形成结论。结论是相邻效应实实在在地影响着住宅地产的选址,任何忽视这种影响的选址决策都是不科学和不可取的,相邻效应已经成为人们不可逃避和忽视的一种客观存在,不论是开发商还是消费者都应该采取一种积极的态度来看待相邻效应。
The development value assess of the project site has reflect the irreplaceable importance to site selection.The neighborhood natural environment、economic environment and social environment of project site have a large extent influence to the development value of the project site. That is to say in the decision-making of real estate development site selection the analysis of neighborhood effect gradually reflect its importance.
From a neighborhood effect perspective,this paper study the new area of the neighborhood effect and the Residential property development site selection ,depending on the existed theories of statistics, sociology and land sciences, and using the methodologies in both quantitative and qualitative.
With this regard, the main framework of this research focuses on the discussion and resolutions of the following three questions:①what is the neighborhood effect or ask what neighborhood effect major study on ;②How to assess the neighborhood effect;③assuming we can more accurately assess the neighborhood effect, then how to make advantage of it to make the correct decision-making to the Residential property site selection.
Therefore, this study is organized as follows:
First of all, based on Literature Review and theoretical basis, Papers defined the concept of the neighborhood effect, and analyzed the separation and causes of neighborhood effect.
Secondly, on one hand, the author established a theoretical system of assessment to the neighborhood effect through AHP with the help of empirical and theoretical analyses; on the other hand, selected better one from two Chongqing actual sites with using of the AHP model of neighborhood effect. Explore the advantages and disadvantages of the model,while answering the second question favorably.
Thirdly, through the application of the examples ,designed the decision-making process of residential property development site selection based on the analysis of the neighborhood effect and finally answering the third question successfully.
The last but not least, based on the successful resolutions of three main problems, and the reconstruction and combination of all above arguments, the author came up with the conclusion which illuminated that on one hand, neighborhood effect do influence the residential property development site selection, and thereby any site selection decision-making is unavailable and infeasible if ignoring or neglecting this point; on the other hand, as neighborhood effect becomes to be an unchangeable fact and an irreversible process, Whether developers or consumers should adopt a positive attitude to face to the neighborhood effect.
这篇论文研究相邻效应与住宅地产选址决策问题,从相邻效应的角度出发,依托经济学原理并结合统计学、社会学和土地学理论,使用定量与定性相结合的方法来探索这一全新领域。
全文从结构上浓缩为对以下三个问题的探讨和解答过程:①什么是相邻效应?或者问相邻效应主要研究什么?②相邻效应如何评价?③假设可以较为准确地评价相邻效应,那么如何利用相邻效应分析来做出住宅地产选址的正确决策?
因此,全文按下述几个方面进行组织:
首先,在文献综述和理论依据的基础上,论文对相邻效应的概念进行了界定,并分析了相邻效应的成因。
其次,通过理论分析与实例应用相结合的方法,论文一方面利用层次分析方法建立了相邻效应评价理论体系;另一方面,应用相邻效应层次分析模型对重庆两个实际地块进行了比较选优。探讨了该模型的优缺点,解答了第二个问题。然后,通过对实例应用的分析,设计出了基于相邻效应分析的住宅地产开发选址决策的流程,解答了第三个问题。
最后,在三个核心疑问破解后,整合全文主要论点,归纳形成结论。结论是相邻效应实实在在地影响着住宅地产的选址,任何忽视这种影响的选址决策都是不科学和不可取的,相邻效应已经成为人们不可逃避和忽视的一种客观存在,不论是开发商还是消费者都应该采取一种积极的态度来看待相邻效应。
The development value assess of the project site has reflect the irreplaceable importance to site selection.The neighborhood natural environment、economic environment and social environment of project site have a large extent influence to the development value of the project site. That is to say in the decision-making of real estate development site selection the analysis of neighborhood effect gradually reflect its importance.
From a neighborhood effect perspective,this paper study the new area of the neighborhood effect and the Residential property development site selection ,depending on the existed theories of statistics, sociology and land sciences, and using the methodologies in both quantitative and qualitative.
With this regard, the main framework of this research focuses on the discussion and resolutions of the following three questions:①what is the neighborhood effect or ask what neighborhood effect major study on ;②How to assess the neighborhood effect;③assuming we can more accurately assess the neighborhood effect, then how to make advantage of it to make the correct decision-making to the Residential property site selection.
Therefore, this study is organized as follows:
First of all, based on Literature Review and theoretical basis, Papers defined the concept of the neighborhood effect, and analyzed the separation and causes of neighborhood effect.
Secondly, on one hand, the author established a theoretical system of assessment to the neighborhood effect through AHP with the help of empirical and theoretical analyses; on the other hand, selected better one from two Chongqing actual sites with using of the AHP model of neighborhood effect. Explore the advantages and disadvantages of the model,while answering the second question favorably.
Thirdly, through the application of the examples ,designed the decision-making process of residential property development site selection based on the analysis of the neighborhood effect and finally answering the third question successfully.
The last but not least, based on the successful resolutions of three main problems, and the reconstruction and combination of all above arguments, the author came up with the conclusion which illuminated that on one hand, neighborhood effect do influence the residential property development site selection, and thereby any site selection decision-making is unavailable and infeasible if ignoring or neglecting this point; on the other hand, as neighborhood effect becomes to be an unchangeable fact and an irreversible process, Whether developers or consumers should adopt a positive attitude to face to the neighborhood effect.
引文
①周峥华.城市轨道交通与房地产综合开发研究[D].广州:暨南大学, 2006.
①张迎春.基于生态建设的房地产开发选址研究[D].上海:同济大学, 2006.
①M歌德伯戈,P钦洛依.城市土地经济学[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1990,41
[1]邹金秋,张根寿.基于特尔斐法的房地产开发项目选址研究[J].华中农业大学学报:社会科学版, 2002(2): 73-76.
[2]施建刚.房地产开发项目区位因素分析与研究[J].华东经济管理, 2001(4): 101-104.
[3]项目管理协会.项目管理知识体系指南(第3版)[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2006.
[4]张鹏.城市大型经济适用居住区规划选址问题研究[D].西安:西安建筑科技大学, 2006:2.
[5]郜振华.灰色系统理论在房地产项目选址中的应用[J].价值工程, 2005(11): 50-52.
[6]迟晓亭,杨和礼,石伟南. TOPSIS法在房地产投资选址中的应用[J].建筑技术开发, 2005(5): 135-136.
[7]杨建平,高毛毛.层次分析法在住宅项目选址中的应用[J].建筑结构设计, 2007(3): 23-25.
[8]黄正军,万继业,李化民.基于集合理论的房地产项目的选址决策分析[J].重庆大学学报(自然科学版), 2007(9): 113-115.
[9]李鹃,杨和礼.城市商业用地开发选址因素分析[J].武汉大学学报(工学版), 2004(12): 125-128.
[10]武振新.论城市住宅地产项目选址[J].包钢科技, 2007(6): 96-98.
[11] Yannis M. Ioannides,Jeffrey E. Zabel. Neighbourhood effects and housing demand [M]. Applied Econometrics, 2003,(5): 563-584.
[12] Florence Goffette-Nagot ,Claire Dujardin. Neighborhood effects, public housing and unemployment in France [J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2006,(4).
[13] R Johnston. The neighbourhood effect revisited: spatial science or political regionalism? [J].society and space ,1986第4卷.
[14]刘建新.城市市政道路建设对房地产开发影响的实证研究[D].西安:西安建筑科技大学, 2007.
[15]孟立文.水体对水景住宅价格的影响研究[D].杭州:浙江大学, 2006.
[16]周峥华.城市轨道交通与房地产综合开发研究[D].广州:暨南大学, 2006.
[17]张迎春.基于生态绿地建设的房地产开发选址研究[D].上海:同济大学, 2006: 37.
[18] Henry Sidgwick. Principles of Political Economy [M]. Published by MacMillan and Company, 1883.
[19]马歇尔.经济学原理(上卷)[M].北京:商务印书馆,1964.
[20]庇古.福利经济学[M].金镝译,华夏出版社,2007.
[21] J JohnEatwell,Murray Milgate, Peter Newman,The New Palgrave:ADictionary ofEconomics [M] .reproduced with permission of Palgrave, 1987.
[22] Samuelson. The pure theory of public expenditure [J]. Review of economics and statistics, 1954,(6):387-389.
[23] William Petty. Political Arithmetic [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1676.
[24] Adam Smith.The wealth of nations [M]. London: Everyman’s Library (882), 1962.
[25] David Ricardo.On the principles of political economy and taxation [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1987.
[26] Johann H von Thunen. Der Isoliererte Staat in beziehung auf landwirtschaft und nationalekonomie [M]. Hamburg: Wheaton, W.C, 1826.
[27] Ricard M Hurd.Principles of city land values [M]. New York: The Record and Guide, 1903.
[28] Robert M Haig.Toward an understanding of the metropolis [J].Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1926.
[29] William Alonso.Location and land use toward a general theory of land rent [M]. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1964.
[30]张泓铭.住宅经济学[M].上海财经大学出版社, 1998:163-187.
[31] F.A.哈耶克,邓正来(译).自由秩序原理[M].生活.读书.新知三联书店, 1997 .
[32]雷仲篪.土地的“全商品论”[J].中国房地产,1994,(4):11.
[33]马壮昌.论城市级差地租[J].当代经济研究,1995, (1): 19.
[34]张昆仑.论“价值辐射”[J].当代财经, 2005, (2): 13-14.
[35]陈宇飞.房地产项目开发中动态联盟的构建[D].南京:东南大学, 2006:54.
[36]程效东.城市土地集约利用及其潜力评价研究[D].南京:南京农业大学, 2004:43.
[37]张协奎,李玉双.层次分析法在城镇土地定级中的应用[J].基建优化, 1993,15 (3): 22-27.
[38]蒋伟.宜宾市城市地价及影响因素研究[D].重庆:西南农业大学, 2004: 21-22.
[39]刘明皓.重庆市土地定级研究[D].重庆:西南师范大学, 2003: 24.
[40]陈传联.基于质量功能展开的房地产开发决策研究[J].建筑技术开发,2005,(5):126-127.
[41]朱卫锋,刘静.轨道交通对房地产价格的影响[J].上海房地, 2007(7):49-51.
[42]任明兰,王蒲吉,刘伟.小城镇地价影响因子分析[J].安徽农业科学,2007,35(7):2049-2050.
[43]邢书冉.房地产价格短期影响因素解读[J].上海房地, 2006(9): 15-16.
[44]沈菊琴等.防洪工程对沿江(河)房地产价值的影响及其量化模型研究[J].水利经济,2007 (3):12-14.
[45]汪洪涛.影响我国发达城市房地产价格走势的因素分析[J].城市房地产业,2007(1):27-28.
[46]盛垒.城市房地产开发经营的外部性及其治理途径[J].建筑经济, 2006(7): 67-69.
[47]林文峰等.论经济外部性对房地产评估的影响[J].商业时代, 2005(35): 48-49.
[48]郭艳桃.浅析旅游房地产对目的地房地产市场的影响[J].市场论坛, 2007(4): 83-84.
[49]李强.自然因素对房地产市场的影响[J].青海民族学院学报(社会科学版), 2007(7):98-100.
[50]郭汉丁等.系统分析方法在建设工程管理决策中的应用[J].重庆建筑大学学报,2002,6:72～75
[51]熊光辉.价值工程在房地产开发项目选址中的运用[J].价值工程, 2007(6): 78-80.
[52]李世涌等.外部性理论及其内部化研究综述[J].学术研究, 2007(8): 117-119.
[53]张巍等.住宅项目选址决策模型[J].重庆大学学报(自然科学版), 2007(8): 153-158.
[54]程胜高,李国斌,吴登定.建设项目优化选址的环境效益分析[J].地质科技情报,1999,18(2):77～79.
①张迎春.基于生态建设的房地产开发选址研究[D].上海:同济大学, 2006.
①M歌德伯戈,P钦洛依.城市土地经济学[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1990,41
[1]邹金秋,张根寿.基于特尔斐法的房地产开发项目选址研究[J].华中农业大学学报:社会科学版, 2002(2): 73-76.
[2]施建刚.房地产开发项目区位因素分析与研究[J].华东经济管理, 2001(4): 101-104.
[3]项目管理协会.项目管理知识体系指南(第3版)[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2006.
[4]张鹏.城市大型经济适用居住区规划选址问题研究[D].西安:西安建筑科技大学, 2006:2.
[5]郜振华.灰色系统理论在房地产项目选址中的应用[J].价值工程, 2005(11): 50-52.
[6]迟晓亭,杨和礼,石伟南. TOPSIS法在房地产投资选址中的应用[J].建筑技术开发, 2005(5): 135-136.
[7]杨建平,高毛毛.层次分析法在住宅项目选址中的应用[J].建筑结构设计, 2007(3): 23-25.
[8]黄正军,万继业,李化民.基于集合理论的房地产项目的选址决策分析[J].重庆大学学报(自然科学版), 2007(9): 113-115.
[9]李鹃,杨和礼.城市商业用地开发选址因素分析[J].武汉大学学报(工学版), 2004(12): 125-128.
[10]武振新.论城市住宅地产项目选址[J].包钢科技, 2007(6): 96-98.
[11] Yannis M. Ioannides,Jeffrey E. Zabel. Neighbourhood effects and housing demand [M]. Applied Econometrics, 2003,(5): 563-584.
[12] Florence Goffette-Nagot ,Claire Dujardin. Neighborhood effects, public housing and unemployment in France [J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2006,(4).
[13] R Johnston. The neighbourhood effect revisited: spatial science or political regionalism? [J].society and space ,1986第4卷.
[14]刘建新.城市市政道路建设对房地产开发影响的实证研究[D].西安:西安建筑科技大学, 2007.
[15]孟立文.水体对水景住宅价格的影响研究[D].杭州:浙江大学, 2006.
[16]周峥华.城市轨道交通与房地产综合开发研究[D].广州:暨南大学, 2006.
[17]张迎春.基于生态绿地建设的房地产开发选址研究[D].上海:同济大学, 2006: 37.
[18] Henry Sidgwick. Principles of Political Economy [M]. Published by MacMillan and Company, 1883.
[19]马歇尔.经济学原理(上卷)[M].北京:商务印书馆,1964.
[20]庇古.福利经济学[M].金镝译,华夏出版社,2007.
[21] J JohnEatwell,Murray Milgate, Peter Newman,The New Palgrave:ADictionary ofEconomics [M] .reproduced with permission of Palgrave, 1987.
[22] Samuelson. The pure theory of public expenditure [J]. Review of economics and statistics, 1954,(6):387-389.
[23] William Petty. Political Arithmetic [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1676.
[24] Adam Smith.The wealth of nations [M]. London: Everyman’s Library (882), 1962.
[25] David Ricardo.On the principles of political economy and taxation [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1987.
[26] Johann H von Thunen. Der Isoliererte Staat in beziehung auf landwirtschaft und nationalekonomie [M]. Hamburg: Wheaton, W.C, 1826.
[27] Ricard M Hurd.Principles of city land values [M]. New York: The Record and Guide, 1903.
[28] Robert M Haig.Toward an understanding of the metropolis [J].Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1926.
[29] William Alonso.Location and land use toward a general theory of land rent [M]. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1964.
[30]张泓铭.住宅经济学[M].上海财经大学出版社, 1998:163-187.
[31] F.A.哈耶克,邓正来(译).自由秩序原理[M].生活.读书.新知三联书店, 1997 .
[32]雷仲篪.土地的“全商品论”[J].中国房地产,1994,(4):11.
[33]马壮昌.论城市级差地租[J].当代经济研究,1995, (1): 19.
[34]张昆仑.论“价值辐射”[J].当代财经, 2005, (2): 13-14.
[35]陈宇飞.房地产项目开发中动态联盟的构建[D].南京:东南大学, 2006:54.
[36]程效东.城市土地集约利用及其潜力评价研究[D].南京:南京农业大学, 2004:43.
[37]张协奎,李玉双.层次分析法在城镇土地定级中的应用[J].基建优化, 1993,15 (3): 22-27.
[38]蒋伟.宜宾市城市地价及影响因素研究[D].重庆:西南农业大学, 2004: 21-22.
[39]刘明皓.重庆市土地定级研究[D].重庆:西南师范大学, 2003: 24.
[40]陈传联.基于质量功能展开的房地产开发决策研究[J].建筑技术开发,2005,(5):126-127.
[41]朱卫锋,刘静.轨道交通对房地产价格的影响[J].上海房地, 2007(7):49-51.
[42]任明兰,王蒲吉,刘伟.小城镇地价影响因子分析[J].安徽农业科学,2007,35(7):2049-2050.
[43]邢书冉.房地产价格短期影响因素解读[J].上海房地, 2006(9): 15-16.
[44]沈菊琴等.防洪工程对沿江(河)房地产价值的影响及其量化模型研究[J].水利经济,2007 (3):12-14.
[45]汪洪涛.影响我国发达城市房地产价格走势的因素分析[J].城市房地产业,2007(1):27-28.
[46]盛垒.城市房地产开发经营的外部性及其治理途径[J].建筑经济, 2006(7): 67-69.
[47]林文峰等.论经济外部性对房地产评估的影响[J].商业时代, 2005(35): 48-49.
[48]郭艳桃.浅析旅游房地产对目的地房地产市场的影响[J].市场论坛, 2007(4): 83-84.
[49]李强.自然因素对房地产市场的影响[J].青海民族学院学报(社会科学版), 2007(7):98-100.
[50]郭汉丁等.系统分析方法在建设工程管理决策中的应用[J].重庆建筑大学学报,2002,6:72～75
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