东北老工业基地人才需求预测与开发研究
|
摘要
21世纪是一个以知识、信息和科技为主导的经济时代,更是一个以人才发展为战略核心的经济时代。人才对区域经济、科技发展的决定性作用日益凸显,得到政府部门的高度重视。东北老工业基地曾为国家经济增长做出巨大贡献,但是目前面临着经济转型、产业高端化发展等战略任务,而完成这些任务的根本保障就是人才。受到区域发展环境等因素的影响,东北老工业基地面临高层次人才缺乏、人才整体质素需要提升等一系列问题。目前关于人才管理的研究多集中在微观层面,对于政府宏观层面的人才管理研究相对较少,无法为解决东北老工业基地人才问题提供直接、有效的支持。
可见,在借鉴国内外典型地区人才开发战略基础上,从宏观层面研究东北老工业人才需求预测方法并据此设计科学的人才开发战略,对提高东北老工业基地人才管理水平与人才质量具有重要的理论研究价值与现实指导意义。
本文在对国内外人才管理相关理论以及人才需求预测方法与开发战略研究脉络进行系统分析的基础上,界定人才与东北工业基地,综合分析东北老工业基地人才现状,揭示人才对东北老工业基地发展的作用机理,分析人才微观管理与宏观管理的内容、目标与实施主体等,并提炼东北老工业基地人才管理的重点——人才需求预测与人才开发,据此构建东北老工业基地人才需求预测与开发管理框架。
分析美国、德国、日本等典型发达国家的人才开发战略,并以我国长江三角洲地区以及珠江三角洲地区为例,分析我国典型地区人才开发战略特征,在进一步分析东北老工业基地人才开发战略基础上,对各个地区人才开发战略的重点以及东北老工业基地在构建人才开发体系中可借鉴的经验进行比较研究与系统归纳。
在分析与推导人才需求预测模型构建前提基础上,结合线性回归模型与动态三因子模型,构建二元线性回归模型；引入灰色预测方法,在分析一般GM(1,1)模型与考虑时间因素的、具有时变参数的GM(1,1)预测模型基础上,构建简化后考虑时变的GM(1,1)模型；采用权变组合思想,构建了结合二元线性回归模型与简化后考虑时变的GM(1,1)模型的东北老工业基地人才需求预测权变组合模型,并根据此模型预测黑龙江省人才需求情况,并提出未来人才开发的重点。
从加强人才培养、完善人才发展环境、引入市场与竞争机制以及创新人才管理制度等视角,提出了东北老工业基地四维人才开发体系,并对四个维度进行详细设计,提出人才开发实施的保障措施。
本文的研究利于拓展人力资源管理研究范围、丰富人力资源管理研究内容,并可为东北老工业基地人才需求预测与开发提供有效方法支持与决策参考。
The21st century is a knowledge, information and technology-driven economy era, and also is an economy era taking talent development as strategic core. Talent role in regional economic and technological development has become increasingly prominent and decisive, which receives great attention of government department. Northeast old industrial base once made significant contribution to national economic growth, but now it is facing economic restructuring and industrial higher development and other strategic tasks, and the talent is the fundamental guarantee to finish these tasks. Influenced by regional development and environmental factors, northeast old industrial base is facing the problem of lack of high-level talents and overall quality needs upgrading and other issues. Current research on talent management is more focused on the micro level, and the government macro-level of talent management research is relatively limited, which can not provide direct and effective support to solve the talent problem of northeast old industrial base.
Therefore, based on considering domestic and foreign typical region talent development strategy, from the macro level researching talent requirement predicting method and accordingly design talent developing strategy has an important theory value and practical significance for northeast old industrial to improve talent management level and talent quality.
Based on systematic analysis of domestic&foreign theory about talent management and talent requirement prediction as well as development strategy research context, defines talent and northeast industrial base, comprehensive analyzes talent status of northeast old industrial base, and reveals talent acting mechanism on northeast old industrial; analyzes micro and macro talent management content, objectives and implementation subject, etc., and refines the key of northeast old industrial base talent management-talent requirement predict and talent development, accordingly builds northeast old industrial base talent requirement predicting and development managing framework.
Analyzes talent development strategy of the United States, Germany, Japan and other typical developed countries, and takes China Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta region for example, analyzes talent development strategy features of typical regions, further based on analyzing northeast old industrial base talent development strategy, makes comparative study and systematic induction of each region talent development strategy focus and the experience which northeast old industrial base can learn from in talent development system construction.
Based on analysis and deduce of talent requirement predicting model design premise, and combined with combined with the linear regression model and dynamic three-factor model, constructs binary linear regression model; introduces gray prediction method, and based on the analysis of general GM (1,1) model and GM (1,1) predicting model with time-varying parameters builds simplified GM(1,1) model considering time-varying; using combination and contingency thinking builds a northeast old industrial base talent requirement contingency combination model combined with binary linear regression model and simplified GM (1,1) model considering time-varying to predict, and accordingly predict talent requirement of Heilongjiang province, also puts forward talent development key.
From the aspects of strengthening talent training, improving talent development environment, introducing market and competition mechanisms as well as innovating talent management mechanism, the four-dimensional talent development system of northeast old industrial base is put forward, and the specific design of four developing dimensions are made, guarantee measurement of talent developing is also proposed.
The study of this paper is benefit to expand the scope of human resource management and enrich content of human resource management, and also can provide effective method support and decision-making reference for northeast old industrial base to predict talent requirement and develop talent.
可见,在借鉴国内外典型地区人才开发战略基础上,从宏观层面研究东北老工业人才需求预测方法并据此设计科学的人才开发战略,对提高东北老工业基地人才管理水平与人才质量具有重要的理论研究价值与现实指导意义。
本文在对国内外人才管理相关理论以及人才需求预测方法与开发战略研究脉络进行系统分析的基础上,界定人才与东北工业基地,综合分析东北老工业基地人才现状,揭示人才对东北老工业基地发展的作用机理,分析人才微观管理与宏观管理的内容、目标与实施主体等,并提炼东北老工业基地人才管理的重点——人才需求预测与人才开发,据此构建东北老工业基地人才需求预测与开发管理框架。
分析美国、德国、日本等典型发达国家的人才开发战略,并以我国长江三角洲地区以及珠江三角洲地区为例,分析我国典型地区人才开发战略特征,在进一步分析东北老工业基地人才开发战略基础上,对各个地区人才开发战略的重点以及东北老工业基地在构建人才开发体系中可借鉴的经验进行比较研究与系统归纳。
在分析与推导人才需求预测模型构建前提基础上,结合线性回归模型与动态三因子模型,构建二元线性回归模型；引入灰色预测方法,在分析一般GM(1,1)模型与考虑时间因素的、具有时变参数的GM(1,1)预测模型基础上,构建简化后考虑时变的GM(1,1)模型；采用权变组合思想,构建了结合二元线性回归模型与简化后考虑时变的GM(1,1)模型的东北老工业基地人才需求预测权变组合模型,并根据此模型预测黑龙江省人才需求情况,并提出未来人才开发的重点。
从加强人才培养、完善人才发展环境、引入市场与竞争机制以及创新人才管理制度等视角,提出了东北老工业基地四维人才开发体系,并对四个维度进行详细设计,提出人才开发实施的保障措施。
本文的研究利于拓展人力资源管理研究范围、丰富人力资源管理研究内容,并可为东北老工业基地人才需求预测与开发提供有效方法支持与决策参考。
The21st century is a knowledge, information and technology-driven economy era, and also is an economy era taking talent development as strategic core. Talent role in regional economic and technological development has become increasingly prominent and decisive, which receives great attention of government department. Northeast old industrial base once made significant contribution to national economic growth, but now it is facing economic restructuring and industrial higher development and other strategic tasks, and the talent is the fundamental guarantee to finish these tasks. Influenced by regional development and environmental factors, northeast old industrial base is facing the problem of lack of high-level talents and overall quality needs upgrading and other issues. Current research on talent management is more focused on the micro level, and the government macro-level of talent management research is relatively limited, which can not provide direct and effective support to solve the talent problem of northeast old industrial base.
Therefore, based on considering domestic and foreign typical region talent development strategy, from the macro level researching talent requirement predicting method and accordingly design talent developing strategy has an important theory value and practical significance for northeast old industrial to improve talent management level and talent quality.
Based on systematic analysis of domestic&foreign theory about talent management and talent requirement prediction as well as development strategy research context, defines talent and northeast industrial base, comprehensive analyzes talent status of northeast old industrial base, and reveals talent acting mechanism on northeast old industrial; analyzes micro and macro talent management content, objectives and implementation subject, etc., and refines the key of northeast old industrial base talent management-talent requirement predict and talent development, accordingly builds northeast old industrial base talent requirement predicting and development managing framework.
Analyzes talent development strategy of the United States, Germany, Japan and other typical developed countries, and takes China Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta region for example, analyzes talent development strategy features of typical regions, further based on analyzing northeast old industrial base talent development strategy, makes comparative study and systematic induction of each region talent development strategy focus and the experience which northeast old industrial base can learn from in talent development system construction.
Based on analysis and deduce of talent requirement predicting model design premise, and combined with combined with the linear regression model and dynamic three-factor model, constructs binary linear regression model; introduces gray prediction method, and based on the analysis of general GM (1,1) model and GM (1,1) predicting model with time-varying parameters builds simplified GM(1,1) model considering time-varying; using combination and contingency thinking builds a northeast old industrial base talent requirement contingency combination model combined with binary linear regression model and simplified GM (1,1) model considering time-varying to predict, and accordingly predict talent requirement of Heilongjiang province, also puts forward talent development key.
From the aspects of strengthening talent training, improving talent development environment, introducing market and competition mechanisms as well as innovating talent management mechanism, the four-dimensional talent development system of northeast old industrial base is put forward, and the specific design of four developing dimensions are made, guarantee measurement of talent developing is also proposed.
The study of this paper is benefit to expand the scope of human resource management and enrich content of human resource management, and also can provide effective method support and decision-making reference for northeast old industrial base to predict talent requirement and develop talent.
引文
[1]LLOYD B, DARRELL G, JOHN H. Time and Space:Reframing the Training and Development Agenda[J].Human Resource Management,2003,1(42): 39-52.
[2]MAYO A. The Role of Development in the Growth of Intellectual Capital [J]. Personnel Review,2000,29, (4):124-129.
[3]JAMES HAYTON C. Strategic Human Capital Management in SMEs:An Empirical Study of Entrepreneurial Performance [J]. Human Resource Management,2003,4(42):375-391.
[4]BARRO ROBERT J. Economic Growth in A Cross-Section of Countries[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1991,106(2):407-443.
[5]BARRO ROBERT J, JONG-WHA L. International Comparisons of Educational Attainment J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,1993,32 (3): 363-394.
[6]王昌君.人力资源开发与创新型经济竞争力[J].求索,2011,(4)：87-89.
[7]MARTEL K, CARROL S. J. How Strategic is HRM [J]. Human Resource Management,1995,34 (02):253-67.
[8]LUOMA M. A Look behind the Programme Level Factors that Drive HRD [J]. The Finnish Journal of Business Economics,2003,49 (01):123-134.
[9]崔祥民.基于不完全信息的企业人力资源开发博弈分析[J].生产力研究,2010,(4)：237-238.
[10]李志刚.基于系统视角的人力资源开发探析[J].科技管理研究,2010,(14)：175-178.
[11]李志刚.“三位一体”的人力资源开发管理体系研究[J].科技管理研究,2010,(5)：119-120.
[12]张华强.发挥人力资源开发管理职能,打破制约企业成长发展的瓶颈[J].经济师,2011,(5)：227-228.
[13]刘进才.关于拓展人力资源开发内涵的思考[J].中国人力资源开发,2010,(12)：5-8.
[14]王在广.人力资源开发、管理与和谐社会构建[J].生产力研究,2009,(23)：192-193.
[15]吴悦健.人力资源的开发与管理[J].求实,2008,(2)：89-90.
[16]肖鸣政,林赛.政府人力资源规划分析——基于美国实践与现代公共管理的视角[J].中国人力资源开发,2009,(5)：80-83.
[17]WEIGEN ANDRESS S.Time series analysis and prediction using gated experts with application to energy demand forecasts [J].Applied Artificial Intelligence, 1996, (11):583-624.
[18]JEYARAJ K, PARANJOTHI S. R. Short-term load forecasting using time series methods [J] journal of the Instiution of Engineers Electrical Engineeing Division,1994, (8):50-52.
[19]IAN D. Andreas Yannopoulos Mc. Stationarity, structural change and specification in a demand systemahe case of energy [J]. Energy Economics,2003, (25):65-92.
[20]MC MENSMIN J.S, MONFORTE F. A. Short term energy forecasting with neural networks [J]. Energy Journal,1998, (4):43-62.
[21]SORESEN B. Non-linear modeling of integrated supply and demand systems [J].Internationl Journal of Global Energy Issues,1999, (1):131-137.
[22]XIAOWO T. Optimal Combination Forecasting Method and Its Application Proceedings of the First China-Japan International Management [M]. International Academic Publishers,1991:126-135.
[23]YONG Z, XIAOWO T. Further Study of Efficient Frontiers of Portfolios [J].University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,1996(1):87-91.
[24]WILSON N A B. Manpower research [M]. English University Press,1968: 156-174.
[25]DAVIES G S. Structural control in graded manpower system[J]. Management Science,1973,20(1):115-119.
[26]KEITH R. Managerial man power planning:A systematic approach [J]. Long Range Planning,1977:21-30.
[27]MOHANTY R P, DESHMUKH S. G. Evolution of a decision support system for human resource planning in petroleum company [J]. Production Economics, 1997,51:251-261.
[28]JOHANSEN S, JUSELIUS K. Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inferences on Cointegration with applications to the demand for money [J].Oxford Bulletin of Economise and Statistics,1990,52:169-210.
[29]JOHANSEN S. Likelihood Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Auto-regressive Models [M]. Oxford University Press,1995:326-331.
[30]PURKISS C J. Corporate manpower planning:A review of models [J]. European Jounal Oper Resouces,1981,8(4):315-323.
[31]BARTHOLEMEW D J. Stochastic models for social processes [M]. New York: Wiley,1973:110-156.
[32]CLOUGH D J, LEWIS C C, OLIVER A L. Manpower planning models [M]. English University Press,1974:135-164.
[33]宿彦,孙景乐,张朋柱.政府人力资源规划决策支持系统模型及其设计[J].系统管理学报,2007,(6)：320-325.
[34]谷继建.基于非官方农村人口调研计量及其人力资源增长预测[J].社会科学战线,2010,(8)：80-86.
[35]曹晓丽.马尔可夫模型在人力资源预测中的应用[J].统计与决策,2005,(7)：42-43.
[36]华瑶,俞明传,乔志强.非线性混沌动力学在电力企业人力资源需求预测应用研究[J].生产力研究,2009,(18)：164-165.
[37]刘善仕,凌文辁.德尔菲法在企业人力资源预测中的运用[J].企业经济,2003,(2)：116-117.
[38]王庆.企业柔性人力资源规划的决策模型[J].统计与决策，2007,(9)：162-163.
[39]刘锋.企业人力资源预测——基于马尔可夫链的研究[J].商场现代化,2006,(7)：246.
[40]杨立峰,郑丕谔,王文富.企业人力资源结构的混合回归预测[J].科学管理研究,2005,(2)：105-107.
[41]侯绍明.目标规划法在企业人力资源需求预测中的应用[J].中国劳动,2006,(2)：57-58.
[42]柳士顺.凌文辁.基于战略柔性的人力资源规划[J].商业时代,2007,(5)：47-48.
[43]王巍.基于有效生产进步率的人力资源需求预测方法[J].统计决策,2004,(4)：128.
[44]刘娜,赵永乐,邵光成.基于遗传神经网络的企业人力资源结构预测[J].统计与决策,2007,(1)：144-146.
[45]李绪红,罗仲星.基于国际金融中心建设目标的上海金融人力资源评估与总量需求预测[J].上海经济研究,2009,(10)：86-93.
[46]毛瑛,杜英东,陈钢,范文斌,王枫叶.运用组合模型预测陕西省卫生人力资源目标年需求量[J].中国卫生统计,2007,6(24)：626-628.
[47]CHRISTOPHER F, BOBER KENNETH R. The Utilization of Training Program Evaluation in Corporate Universities [J]. Human Resource Development Quarterly,2004,4(15):363-383.
[48]贺静.知识经济时代创新型人力资源的开发[J].科技管理研究,2007,2：98-100.
[49]杨湘怡,廖勇凯.企业内部人力资源开发系统建构[J].商业时代,2007,3：52-53.
[50]PARKINSON S. Management Development Strategic Role [J]. Journal of General Management,1990,16 (02):63-75.
[51]HALL D. T, SEIBERT K. W. StrategicManagement Development:Linking Strategy, Succession Planning, and Managerial Learning [M]. Career Development:Theory and Practice, Charles C. Thomas Press,1992:231-236.
[52]MELDRUM M, ATKINSON S. Is Management Development Fulfilling its Organizational Role [J]. Management Decision,1998,36 (08):528-32.
[53]RICHARD TORRACO J. Challenges and Choices for Theoretical Research in Human Resource Development [J].Human Resource Development Quarterly, 2004,2(15):171-188.
[54]HOLTON E. F. The Mandate for Theory in Human Resource Development [J].Human Resource Development Review,2002,1(1):3-8.
[55]KUCHINKE K. P. Debates over the Nature of HRD:An Institutional Theory Perspective [J]. Human Resource Development International,2000, 3(3):279-283.
[56]LYNHAM, S. A. Theory Building in the Human Resource Development Profession [J]. Human Resource Development Quarterly,2000,11(2): 158-178.
[57]SWANSON, R. A. Human Resource Development and Its Underlying Theory [J].Human Resource Development International,2001,4 (3):299-312.
[58]MABEY SALAMAN C. Strategic Human Resource Management [M]. Blackwell Oxford,1995:57-66.
[59]KONTOGHIORGHES C, SUSAN AWBREY M, PAMELA FEURIG L. Examining the Relationship between Learning Organization Characteristics and Change Adaptation, Innovation, and Organizational Performance [J], Human Resource Development Quarterly,2005,16 (2):185-211.
[60]ARMSTRONG A, FOLEY P. Foundations of a Learning Organization: Organization Learning Mechanisms [J], Learning Organization,2003, 10(2):74-82.
[61]BALDWIN T. T, DANIELSON C, WIGGENHORN W. The Evolution of Learning Strategies in Organizations:From Employee Development to Business Redefinition [J], Academy of Management Executive,1997, 11(4):47-57.
[62]DEGEUS A. P. Planning as Learning [J], Harvard Business Review,1988, 66(2):70-74.
[63]GOH S. C., RICHARDS G. Benchmarking the Learning Capability of Organization [J], European Management Journal,1997,2(2):575-583.
[64]PORTH S. J, MCCALL J, BAUSCH T. A. Spiritual Themes of the "Learning Organization" [J], Journal of Organization Change Management,1999,12 (3): 210-220.
[65]JIA W, GREG WANG G. Participation in Management Training in a Transitioning Context:A Case of China [J].Human Resource Development Quarterly,2006,4(17):443-473.
[66]BURGOYNE J, STUART R. The nature, Use and Acquisition of Managerial Skills and Other Attributes [J]. Personnel Review,1976,15 (04):123-145.
[67]MICHAEL D. Enos Marijke Thamm K, Bell A. Informal Learning and the Transfer of Learning:How Managers Develop Proficiency [J]. Human Resource Development Quarterly,2003,14(4):369-387.
[68]BLACK SANDRA E, LYACH LISA M. Human Capital Investment and Productivity [J]. American Economic Review,1996,86(2):263-267.
[69]ODDEN A. Incentives, school of organization and teacher compensation in Consortium for Policy Research in Education [J]. Incentives and systemic reform,1995,10(102):128-132.
[70]JAMES GROCCIA E, JUDITH MILLER E. Enhancing productivity: Administrative, instructional, and technological strategies [J]. New Directions for Higher Education,1998, (103):56-63.
[71]SONNENFIELD J. A. Strategic Determinants of Managerial Labor Markets [J]. Human Resource Management 1992,27, (4):123-134.
[72]马颂歌,欧阳忠明,黄健.人力资源开发的经济学拓展与反思[J].山东社会科学,2010,(3)：127-130.
[73]杨新荣,南红娜.人力资源开发的动力机制研究[J].中国人力资源开发,2010,(5)：92-96.
[74]魏江茹,杨东涛,王庆燕.中国企业人力资源规划现状与剖析——基于战略导向的调查[J].生产力研究,2007,(19)：120-12].
[75]MILLER P. A Strategic look at Management Development [J]. Personnel Management,1991, (8):154-161.
[76]SCHULER R. S. Strategic Human ResourceManagement:Linking the People with the Strategic Needs of the Business [J].OrganizationalDynamics,1992: 18-32.
[77]LAUMA M. Investigating the Link between Strategy and HRD [J]. Personnel Review,2000,29 (6):136-139.
[78]HARRISON R. Human Resource Management:Issues and Strategies[M]. Wokingham:Addison Wesley,1993:256-268.
[79]张吉炎,张建设.安徽科技人力资源开发战略研究[J].中国科技论坛,2010,(11)：123-128.
[80]房国忠,朱晓英.东北地区人力资源开发度分析[J].东北师大学报,2010,(4)：34-39.
[81]张丽.教育竞争力与人力资源开发[J].当代教育科学.2010,(13)：11-14.
[82]李扬.西部地区人力资源开发对经济增长影响研究[J].科学管理研究,2009,(10)：71-74.
[83]吕静,李一念.中部地区人力资源开发[J].人力资源管理,2011,(6)：142-143.
[84]田静.山东人力资源开发与区域经济发展的关系研究[J].生产力研究,2011,(5)：117-118.
[85]黄兴国.福建人力资源开发现状及对策探析[J].现代经济信息,2011,(3)：230-232.
[86]玉文娟.广西北部湾经济区人力资源开发与整合[J].山西财经大学学报,2011,(4)：41-42.
[87]关欣,王俊清.内蒙古自治区女性人力资源开发对策研究[J].内蒙古科技与经济,2011,(5)：30-33.
[88]余晓,汤易兵,吴伟.OECD国家科技人力资源开发探究[J].中国人力资源开发,2010,(8)：73-77.
[89]涂征,陈元勇.台湾产业升级过程中人力资源的开发[J].亚太经济,2011,(1)：151-153.
[90]臧忠生.高技能人才发展存在的主要问题及原因分析[J].人才方略,2004,(1)：92-95.
[91]刘海军,陈庆华.东北老工业基地振兴与人才战略[J].大连海事大学学报(社会科学版),2004,3：59-61.
[92]盛大泉.决胜大东北[J].中国人才,2004,6：18.
[93]SABIRIANOVA K. Z. The Great Human Capital Reallocation:A Study of Occupational Mobility in Transitional Russia[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics,2002,30(3):277-281.
[94]张桂荣.引入要防止出险“漏斗”现象[N].中国人事报.2002.12.23.
[95]马建中.创新人才培养模式的研究于实践[J].中国高等教育,2004,(12)：157-160.
[96]MCLAGON P. A. Models for HRD Practice:The Research Report[C]. Washington, D.C.:American Society for Training and Development,1989: 76-77.
[97]赵宏斌.教育收益与风险的国际比较及对我国的启示[J].比较教育研究,2004,(8)：25-28.
[98]黄尧.贯彻全国职业教育工作会议精神推动职业教育快速健康持续发展[J],职教论坛,2004,8：6.
[99]房国忠.东北老工业基地人力资源开发战略[D].东北师范大学博士学位论文,2009：75-79.
[100]徐传谌,冯电波,艾德洲.老工业基地国有企业社会责任与国有企业改革研究[J].东北亚论坛,2011,(3)：25-29.
[101]徐传谌,艾德洲.中国国有企业社会责任研究[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2010,(6)：85-90.
[102]张车伟.人力资本回报率变化与收入差距：“马太效应”及其政策含义[J].经济研究.2006,12：59-70.
[2]MAYO A. The Role of Development in the Growth of Intellectual Capital [J]. Personnel Review,2000,29, (4):124-129.
[3]JAMES HAYTON C. Strategic Human Capital Management in SMEs:An Empirical Study of Entrepreneurial Performance [J]. Human Resource Management,2003,4(42):375-391.
[4]BARRO ROBERT J. Economic Growth in A Cross-Section of Countries[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1991,106(2):407-443.
[5]BARRO ROBERT J, JONG-WHA L. International Comparisons of Educational Attainment J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,1993,32 (3): 363-394.
[6]王昌君.人力资源开发与创新型经济竞争力[J].求索,2011,(4)：87-89.
[7]MARTEL K, CARROL S. J. How Strategic is HRM [J]. Human Resource Management,1995,34 (02):253-67.
[8]LUOMA M. A Look behind the Programme Level Factors that Drive HRD [J]. The Finnish Journal of Business Economics,2003,49 (01):123-134.
[9]崔祥民.基于不完全信息的企业人力资源开发博弈分析[J].生产力研究,2010,(4)：237-238.
[10]李志刚.基于系统视角的人力资源开发探析[J].科技管理研究,2010,(14)：175-178.
[11]李志刚.“三位一体”的人力资源开发管理体系研究[J].科技管理研究,2010,(5)：119-120.
[12]张华强.发挥人力资源开发管理职能,打破制约企业成长发展的瓶颈[J].经济师,2011,(5)：227-228.
[13]刘进才.关于拓展人力资源开发内涵的思考[J].中国人力资源开发,2010,(12)：5-8.
[14]王在广.人力资源开发、管理与和谐社会构建[J].生产力研究,2009,(23)：192-193.
[15]吴悦健.人力资源的开发与管理[J].求实,2008,(2)：89-90.
[16]肖鸣政,林赛.政府人力资源规划分析——基于美国实践与现代公共管理的视角[J].中国人力资源开发,2009,(5)：80-83.
[17]WEIGEN ANDRESS S.Time series analysis and prediction using gated experts with application to energy demand forecasts [J].Applied Artificial Intelligence, 1996, (11):583-624.
[18]JEYARAJ K, PARANJOTHI S. R. Short-term load forecasting using time series methods [J] journal of the Instiution of Engineers Electrical Engineeing Division,1994, (8):50-52.
[19]IAN D. Andreas Yannopoulos Mc. Stationarity, structural change and specification in a demand systemahe case of energy [J]. Energy Economics,2003, (25):65-92.
[20]MC MENSMIN J.S, MONFORTE F. A. Short term energy forecasting with neural networks [J]. Energy Journal,1998, (4):43-62.
[21]SORESEN B. Non-linear modeling of integrated supply and demand systems [J].Internationl Journal of Global Energy Issues,1999, (1):131-137.
[22]XIAOWO T. Optimal Combination Forecasting Method and Its Application Proceedings of the First China-Japan International Management [M]. International Academic Publishers,1991:126-135.
[23]YONG Z, XIAOWO T. Further Study of Efficient Frontiers of Portfolios [J].University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,1996(1):87-91.
[24]WILSON N A B. Manpower research [M]. English University Press,1968: 156-174.
[25]DAVIES G S. Structural control in graded manpower system[J]. Management Science,1973,20(1):115-119.
[26]KEITH R. Managerial man power planning:A systematic approach [J]. Long Range Planning,1977:21-30.
[27]MOHANTY R P, DESHMUKH S. G. Evolution of a decision support system for human resource planning in petroleum company [J]. Production Economics, 1997,51:251-261.
[28]JOHANSEN S, JUSELIUS K. Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inferences on Cointegration with applications to the demand for money [J].Oxford Bulletin of Economise and Statistics,1990,52:169-210.
[29]JOHANSEN S. Likelihood Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Auto-regressive Models [M]. Oxford University Press,1995:326-331.
[30]PURKISS C J. Corporate manpower planning:A review of models [J]. European Jounal Oper Resouces,1981,8(4):315-323.
[31]BARTHOLEMEW D J. Stochastic models for social processes [M]. New York: Wiley,1973:110-156.
[32]CLOUGH D J, LEWIS C C, OLIVER A L. Manpower planning models [M]. English University Press,1974:135-164.
[33]宿彦,孙景乐,张朋柱.政府人力资源规划决策支持系统模型及其设计[J].系统管理学报,2007,(6)：320-325.
[34]谷继建.基于非官方农村人口调研计量及其人力资源增长预测[J].社会科学战线,2010,(8)：80-86.
[35]曹晓丽.马尔可夫模型在人力资源预测中的应用[J].统计与决策,2005,(7)：42-43.
[36]华瑶,俞明传,乔志强.非线性混沌动力学在电力企业人力资源需求预测应用研究[J].生产力研究,2009,(18)：164-165.
[37]刘善仕,凌文辁.德尔菲法在企业人力资源预测中的运用[J].企业经济,2003,(2)：116-117.
[38]王庆.企业柔性人力资源规划的决策模型[J].统计与决策，2007,(9)：162-163.
[39]刘锋.企业人力资源预测——基于马尔可夫链的研究[J].商场现代化,2006,(7)：246.
[40]杨立峰,郑丕谔,王文富.企业人力资源结构的混合回归预测[J].科学管理研究,2005,(2)：105-107.
[41]侯绍明.目标规划法在企业人力资源需求预测中的应用[J].中国劳动,2006,(2)：57-58.
[42]柳士顺.凌文辁.基于战略柔性的人力资源规划[J].商业时代,2007,(5)：47-48.
[43]王巍.基于有效生产进步率的人力资源需求预测方法[J].统计决策,2004,(4)：128.
[44]刘娜,赵永乐,邵光成.基于遗传神经网络的企业人力资源结构预测[J].统计与决策,2007,(1)：144-146.
[45]李绪红,罗仲星.基于国际金融中心建设目标的上海金融人力资源评估与总量需求预测[J].上海经济研究,2009,(10)：86-93.
[46]毛瑛,杜英东,陈钢,范文斌,王枫叶.运用组合模型预测陕西省卫生人力资源目标年需求量[J].中国卫生统计,2007,6(24)：626-628.
[47]CHRISTOPHER F, BOBER KENNETH R. The Utilization of Training Program Evaluation in Corporate Universities [J]. Human Resource Development Quarterly,2004,4(15):363-383.
[48]贺静.知识经济时代创新型人力资源的开发[J].科技管理研究,2007,2：98-100.
[49]杨湘怡,廖勇凯.企业内部人力资源开发系统建构[J].商业时代,2007,3：52-53.
[50]PARKINSON S. Management Development Strategic Role [J]. Journal of General Management,1990,16 (02):63-75.
[51]HALL D. T, SEIBERT K. W. StrategicManagement Development:Linking Strategy, Succession Planning, and Managerial Learning [M]. Career Development:Theory and Practice, Charles C. Thomas Press,1992:231-236.
[52]MELDRUM M, ATKINSON S. Is Management Development Fulfilling its Organizational Role [J]. Management Decision,1998,36 (08):528-32.
[53]RICHARD TORRACO J. Challenges and Choices for Theoretical Research in Human Resource Development [J].Human Resource Development Quarterly, 2004,2(15):171-188.
[54]HOLTON E. F. The Mandate for Theory in Human Resource Development [J].Human Resource Development Review,2002,1(1):3-8.
[55]KUCHINKE K. P. Debates over the Nature of HRD:An Institutional Theory Perspective [J]. Human Resource Development International,2000, 3(3):279-283.
[56]LYNHAM, S. A. Theory Building in the Human Resource Development Profession [J]. Human Resource Development Quarterly,2000,11(2): 158-178.
[57]SWANSON, R. A. Human Resource Development and Its Underlying Theory [J].Human Resource Development International,2001,4 (3):299-312.
[58]MABEY SALAMAN C. Strategic Human Resource Management [M]. Blackwell Oxford,1995:57-66.
[59]KONTOGHIORGHES C, SUSAN AWBREY M, PAMELA FEURIG L. Examining the Relationship between Learning Organization Characteristics and Change Adaptation, Innovation, and Organizational Performance [J], Human Resource Development Quarterly,2005,16 (2):185-211.
[60]ARMSTRONG A, FOLEY P. Foundations of a Learning Organization: Organization Learning Mechanisms [J], Learning Organization,2003, 10(2):74-82.
[61]BALDWIN T. T, DANIELSON C, WIGGENHORN W. The Evolution of Learning Strategies in Organizations:From Employee Development to Business Redefinition [J], Academy of Management Executive,1997, 11(4):47-57.
[62]DEGEUS A. P. Planning as Learning [J], Harvard Business Review,1988, 66(2):70-74.
[63]GOH S. C., RICHARDS G. Benchmarking the Learning Capability of Organization [J], European Management Journal,1997,2(2):575-583.
[64]PORTH S. J, MCCALL J, BAUSCH T. A. Spiritual Themes of the "Learning Organization" [J], Journal of Organization Change Management,1999,12 (3): 210-220.
[65]JIA W, GREG WANG G. Participation in Management Training in a Transitioning Context:A Case of China [J].Human Resource Development Quarterly,2006,4(17):443-473.
[66]BURGOYNE J, STUART R. The nature, Use and Acquisition of Managerial Skills and Other Attributes [J]. Personnel Review,1976,15 (04):123-145.
[67]MICHAEL D. Enos Marijke Thamm K, Bell A. Informal Learning and the Transfer of Learning:How Managers Develop Proficiency [J]. Human Resource Development Quarterly,2003,14(4):369-387.
[68]BLACK SANDRA E, LYACH LISA M. Human Capital Investment and Productivity [J]. American Economic Review,1996,86(2):263-267.
[69]ODDEN A. Incentives, school of organization and teacher compensation in Consortium for Policy Research in Education [J]. Incentives and systemic reform,1995,10(102):128-132.
[70]JAMES GROCCIA E, JUDITH MILLER E. Enhancing productivity: Administrative, instructional, and technological strategies [J]. New Directions for Higher Education,1998, (103):56-63.
[71]SONNENFIELD J. A. Strategic Determinants of Managerial Labor Markets [J]. Human Resource Management 1992,27, (4):123-134.
[72]马颂歌,欧阳忠明,黄健.人力资源开发的经济学拓展与反思[J].山东社会科学,2010,(3)：127-130.
[73]杨新荣,南红娜.人力资源开发的动力机制研究[J].中国人力资源开发,2010,(5)：92-96.
[74]魏江茹,杨东涛,王庆燕.中国企业人力资源规划现状与剖析——基于战略导向的调查[J].生产力研究,2007,(19)：120-12].
[75]MILLER P. A Strategic look at Management Development [J]. Personnel Management,1991, (8):154-161.
[76]SCHULER R. S. Strategic Human ResourceManagement:Linking the People with the Strategic Needs of the Business [J].OrganizationalDynamics,1992: 18-32.
[77]LAUMA M. Investigating the Link between Strategy and HRD [J]. Personnel Review,2000,29 (6):136-139.
[78]HARRISON R. Human Resource Management:Issues and Strategies[M]. Wokingham:Addison Wesley,1993:256-268.
[79]张吉炎,张建设.安徽科技人力资源开发战略研究[J].中国科技论坛,2010,(11)：123-128.
[80]房国忠,朱晓英.东北地区人力资源开发度分析[J].东北师大学报,2010,(4)：34-39.
[81]张丽.教育竞争力与人力资源开发[J].当代教育科学.2010,(13)：11-14.
[82]李扬.西部地区人力资源开发对经济增长影响研究[J].科学管理研究,2009,(10)：71-74.
[83]吕静,李一念.中部地区人力资源开发[J].人力资源管理,2011,(6)：142-143.
[84]田静.山东人力资源开发与区域经济发展的关系研究[J].生产力研究,2011,(5)：117-118.
[85]黄兴国.福建人力资源开发现状及对策探析[J].现代经济信息,2011,(3)：230-232.
[86]玉文娟.广西北部湾经济区人力资源开发与整合[J].山西财经大学学报,2011,(4)：41-42.
[87]关欣,王俊清.内蒙古自治区女性人力资源开发对策研究[J].内蒙古科技与经济,2011,(5)：30-33.
[88]余晓,汤易兵,吴伟.OECD国家科技人力资源开发探究[J].中国人力资源开发,2010,(8)：73-77.
[89]涂征,陈元勇.台湾产业升级过程中人力资源的开发[J].亚太经济,2011,(1)：151-153.
[90]臧忠生.高技能人才发展存在的主要问题及原因分析[J].人才方略,2004,(1)：92-95.
[91]刘海军,陈庆华.东北老工业基地振兴与人才战略[J].大连海事大学学报(社会科学版),2004,3：59-61.
[92]盛大泉.决胜大东北[J].中国人才,2004,6：18.
[93]SABIRIANOVA K. Z. The Great Human Capital Reallocation:A Study of Occupational Mobility in Transitional Russia[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics,2002,30(3):277-281.
[94]张桂荣.引入要防止出险“漏斗”现象[N].中国人事报.2002.12.23.
[95]马建中.创新人才培养模式的研究于实践[J].中国高等教育,2004,(12)：157-160.
[96]MCLAGON P. A. Models for HRD Practice:The Research Report[C]. Washington, D.C.:American Society for Training and Development,1989: 76-77.
[97]赵宏斌.教育收益与风险的国际比较及对我国的启示[J].比较教育研究,2004,(8)：25-28.
[98]黄尧.贯彻全国职业教育工作会议精神推动职业教育快速健康持续发展[J],职教论坛,2004,8：6.
[99]房国忠.东北老工业基地人力资源开发战略[D].东北师范大学博士学位论文,2009：75-79.
[100]徐传谌,冯电波,艾德洲.老工业基地国有企业社会责任与国有企业改革研究[J].东北亚论坛,2011,(3)：25-29.
[101]徐传谌,艾德洲.中国国有企业社会责任研究[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2010,(6)：85-90.
[102]张车伟.人力资本回报率变化与收入差距：“马太效应”及其政策含义[J].经济研究.2006,12：59-70.