虚拟软件项目开发风险评价研究
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摘要
虚拟软件项目已经成为软件开发的一种普遍形式,这种形式的项目主要通过网络和现代通信手段实现团队成员之间的联系,相对传统项目而言,它的最大优势就在于人才方面的整合配置与共享机制,能以最低的柔性成本对外部需求做出敏捷反映,在更大的范围内实现资源配置,但也增加了项目管理的复杂度和难度,势必带来更多的风险。因此,我们必须要了解虚拟软件项目在开发过程中有那些风险因素以及风险的主要来源,而且要针对虚拟软件项目的特点,准确地对风险进行评价,为风险管理提供决策依据。
研究首先回顾和分析了国内外相关研究现状,指出了当前虚拟软件项目风险评价需要解决的问题；其次从项目风险入手,逐层剖析项目的特点、项目目标间的关系、软件项目的特点和软件项目开发过程的模型,由此得出软件项目开发的常见风险,描述了风险识别和风险评价的方法和流程,并对风险评价方法做了比较分析；第三,详细分析了虚拟软件项目的特点、运作模式和组织结构,从虚拟化角度论述了产生风险的来源,并结合调研结果给出了虚拟软件项目的53个风险；第四,设计了一套调查问卷对虚拟软件项目的风险情况进行了全面统计,对调查的结果进行归纳、分类和总结,并应用因子分析法对样本数据进行处理,提炼了一个包括六大类风险的评价体系,为虚拟软件项目的风险评价提供了一个理论依据；第五,在风险评价方法上,提出了一种基于多目标的虚拟软件项目模糊综合评价模型,该模型对基于三角模糊函数的综合评价方法进行了改进,分别以进度、成本和性能为评价目标,根据项目委托人和客户对进度、成本和性能的不同期望,计算出项目的综合风险。为了简化计算过程,采用了梯形去模糊算法,减少了大量的计算,并在实际应用中得到了验正。第六,构建了虚拟软件项目的多阶段的动态模糊评价模型,该模型根据挣值法原理,引入进度绩效指标SPI和成本绩效指标CPI来表示项目的成本和进度执行状态,然后用这2个指标对所评价阶段的风险评价结果进行修正,并用实例验证了该模型的可行性与有效性。第七,采用B/S模式,开发了一个基于Web的风险评价系统,该系统具有交互性强、通用性好的特点,为虚拟软件项目提供了一个网络在线风险评价平台。最后,对全文进行了总结,并指出了今后需要研究的内容。
Virtual software project has already been a common form of software development. In this kind of project, the communication between team members would be achieved through the Internet and modern means of communication. Compared to traditional projects, virtual software project is more flexible. It can, at the lowest flexible cost, make a quick reflection on the external demand and realize resource allocation in the larger scope. While the complexity and difficulty of the project have also increased hence more risk. Therefore, we have to find out risk factors and the main sources of the risk during the development process of virtual software project. Moreover, we need to evaluate the risk accurately according to the features of the software project.
Under the guide of the above issues, this paper first reviewed and analyzed status quo at home and abroad, and pointed out some issues needed to be resolved in recent research; What's more, as for the project risk, this paper analyzed the characteristic of the project, relationship between project objectives, characteristics of software project and its model during its development step by step. Thus it can be seen software risk occurred frequently.And the thesis also describes the risk identification and risk assessment method and process which have been conducted be a comparative analysis;Thirdly, this paper analyzed the characteristic of the virtual software project, operation mode and organization structure, and discussed source of risk from the perspective of virtualization. The 53 risk factors were given by combining inquisitional data.Fourthly, conducted a comprehensive statistics to virtual software project through a questionnaire, and induced, classified, summarize the results of the questionnaire. After the processing to sample data via the application of factor analysis, an evaluation system included six categories of risk had been refined, and the system provided a theory foundation to risk assessment. Fifthly, as for risk assessment method, this paper improved the multi-objective comprehensive assessment model based on triangle fuzzy function. It set the schedule, cost and performance as the evaluation objective. And the comprehensive risk of project can be calculated in terms of clients and customers' different requirements to schedule, cost and performance. Trapezoid de-fuzzy arithmetic was been used, which reduced the amount of calculation, and this method was verified in the practical application. Sixthly, this thesis established multi-stage dynamic fuzzy evaluation model, which introduces Schedule Performed Index and Cost Performed Index to denote the cost and progress of the project according to the principle of earned value method. Then, verify the result of risk assessment via the two indexes, and a practical example is given to illustrate feasibility and validity. Seventhly, risk assessment system based on Web had been developed via B/S mode. This system has strong features in interaction and versatility, which provide an online risk assessment stage for virtual software project. At last, this paper pointed the further research content in this field.
研究首先回顾和分析了国内外相关研究现状,指出了当前虚拟软件项目风险评价需要解决的问题；其次从项目风险入手,逐层剖析项目的特点、项目目标间的关系、软件项目的特点和软件项目开发过程的模型,由此得出软件项目开发的常见风险,描述了风险识别和风险评价的方法和流程,并对风险评价方法做了比较分析；第三,详细分析了虚拟软件项目的特点、运作模式和组织结构,从虚拟化角度论述了产生风险的来源,并结合调研结果给出了虚拟软件项目的53个风险；第四,设计了一套调查问卷对虚拟软件项目的风险情况进行了全面统计,对调查的结果进行归纳、分类和总结,并应用因子分析法对样本数据进行处理,提炼了一个包括六大类风险的评价体系,为虚拟软件项目的风险评价提供了一个理论依据；第五,在风险评价方法上,提出了一种基于多目标的虚拟软件项目模糊综合评价模型,该模型对基于三角模糊函数的综合评价方法进行了改进,分别以进度、成本和性能为评价目标,根据项目委托人和客户对进度、成本和性能的不同期望,计算出项目的综合风险。为了简化计算过程,采用了梯形去模糊算法,减少了大量的计算,并在实际应用中得到了验正。第六,构建了虚拟软件项目的多阶段的动态模糊评价模型,该模型根据挣值法原理,引入进度绩效指标SPI和成本绩效指标CPI来表示项目的成本和进度执行状态,然后用这2个指标对所评价阶段的风险评价结果进行修正,并用实例验证了该模型的可行性与有效性。第七,采用B/S模式,开发了一个基于Web的风险评价系统,该系统具有交互性强、通用性好的特点,为虚拟软件项目提供了一个网络在线风险评价平台。最后,对全文进行了总结,并指出了今后需要研究的内容。
Virtual software project has already been a common form of software development. In this kind of project, the communication between team members would be achieved through the Internet and modern means of communication. Compared to traditional projects, virtual software project is more flexible. It can, at the lowest flexible cost, make a quick reflection on the external demand and realize resource allocation in the larger scope. While the complexity and difficulty of the project have also increased hence more risk. Therefore, we have to find out risk factors and the main sources of the risk during the development process of virtual software project. Moreover, we need to evaluate the risk accurately according to the features of the software project.
Under the guide of the above issues, this paper first reviewed and analyzed status quo at home and abroad, and pointed out some issues needed to be resolved in recent research; What's more, as for the project risk, this paper analyzed the characteristic of the project, relationship between project objectives, characteristics of software project and its model during its development step by step. Thus it can be seen software risk occurred frequently.And the thesis also describes the risk identification and risk assessment method and process which have been conducted be a comparative analysis;Thirdly, this paper analyzed the characteristic of the virtual software project, operation mode and organization structure, and discussed source of risk from the perspective of virtualization. The 53 risk factors were given by combining inquisitional data.Fourthly, conducted a comprehensive statistics to virtual software project through a questionnaire, and induced, classified, summarize the results of the questionnaire. After the processing to sample data via the application of factor analysis, an evaluation system included six categories of risk had been refined, and the system provided a theory foundation to risk assessment. Fifthly, as for risk assessment method, this paper improved the multi-objective comprehensive assessment model based on triangle fuzzy function. It set the schedule, cost and performance as the evaluation objective. And the comprehensive risk of project can be calculated in terms of clients and customers' different requirements to schedule, cost and performance. Trapezoid de-fuzzy arithmetic was been used, which reduced the amount of calculation, and this method was verified in the practical application. Sixthly, this thesis established multi-stage dynamic fuzzy evaluation model, which introduces Schedule Performed Index and Cost Performed Index to denote the cost and progress of the project according to the principle of earned value method. Then, verify the result of risk assessment via the two indexes, and a practical example is given to illustrate feasibility and validity. Seventhly, risk assessment system based on Web had been developed via B/S mode. This system has strong features in interaction and versatility, which provide an online risk assessment stage for virtual software project. At last, this paper pointed the further research content in this field.
引文
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