我国房地产周期波动影响因素分析
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摘要
各国经济发展历程表明,经济波动是经济增长过程中的伴生现象。与宏观经济运行过程的周期波动一样,房地产业在发展过程中也客观存在着周期波动现象。在我国,房地产业与国民经济的许多行业都有密切的关系,具有产业链长、带动作用明显等独特的产业特性,所以它的变动通常会对众多产业产生较大的冲击。因此,正确认识房地产周期波动产生的原因,分析和研究房地产周期波动,不但有助于从整体上促进我国房地产业持续、健康、稳定的发展,而且对于指导参与房地产运行的各方,顺应周期运行选择相应策略,具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。
通过归纳、总结主要经济周期波动理论及房地产经济周期波动理论的主要观点,提出房地产经济周期波动的形成过程与阶段特征,在学习借鉴经济周期理论和国内外现有房地产周期理论研究成果的基础上,分析了我国房地产周期波动的主要影响因素,将房地产周期波动的影响因素分解为宏观因素、土地因素、资金因素、市场因素和心理因素,这些影响因素在房地产的实际运行中不是相对独立存在的,而是相互联系、相互影响的。沿着这条线索,首先,从定性的角度,对每一个因素进行了具体分析,说明与我国房地产周期波动的联系。其次,从定量的角度,根据以上对我国房地产周期波动影响因素的分析,建立了我国房地产周期波动影响因素的计量经济模型,运用单位根检验、协整理论、误差修正模型等现代计量分析方法,通过对我国1992-2006年的年度数据的分析与处理,探讨得出对我国房地产周期波动影响显著的因素,并据此提出在房地产周期波动中政府和房地产商应对周期波动的对策。
National economic development process shows that economic fluctuations are the accompanying phenomenon in the process of economic growth. The real estate industry is an objective cycle fluctuations which is like the macroeconomic fluctuations in the course of the cycle. In China, many parts of the national economy are closely related to real estate industries, which are featured as a long industrial chain and driving effects. Therefore, the changes of real estate industries will have greater influence on other industries. So, recognizing the cause of the real estate cycle fluctuations correctly, analyzing and reaserching on cycle fluctuations in the real estate cycle will not only promote the sustainable, healthy and stable development of the real estate industry, but also have very important theoretical and practical significance to guide the operation of all parties involved in real estate and select the appropriate strategy to go with the cycle running.
The study summarized the major theories of economic cycle fluctuations and economic cycle fluctuations in the real estate and proposed the formation stage and characteristics of the real estate economic cycle fluctuations. On the basis of learning from research results about economic cycle theories and exsiting domestic and international real estate cycle theories, it analyzes the main influential factors of chinese real estate cycle fluctuations. The influential factors of real estate cycle fluctuations can be divided into macroeconomic factors, land, capital, market factors and psychological factors. These factors are not in relatively independent existence, but interrelated and mutually affected with each other. Along this trail, from a qualitative point of view, the study analyzes each factor exactly and demonstrates the relationships between chinese real estate cycle fluctuations and the factors. Furthermore, from a quantitative point of view, econometric model of chinese real estate cycle fluctuations factors is established by analyzing the influence of fluctuations in chinese real estate cycle. By using of unit root test, coordinative theory, error correction model, and other modern measures and studying on annual data from 1992 to 2006, the studies in the paper research into significant factors of chinese real estate cycle fluctuations, and accordingly, put forward countermeasures in the cycle fluctuations in response to the government and the real estate cycle fluctuations.
通过归纳、总结主要经济周期波动理论及房地产经济周期波动理论的主要观点,提出房地产经济周期波动的形成过程与阶段特征,在学习借鉴经济周期理论和国内外现有房地产周期理论研究成果的基础上,分析了我国房地产周期波动的主要影响因素,将房地产周期波动的影响因素分解为宏观因素、土地因素、资金因素、市场因素和心理因素,这些影响因素在房地产的实际运行中不是相对独立存在的,而是相互联系、相互影响的。沿着这条线索,首先,从定性的角度,对每一个因素进行了具体分析,说明与我国房地产周期波动的联系。其次,从定量的角度,根据以上对我国房地产周期波动影响因素的分析,建立了我国房地产周期波动影响因素的计量经济模型,运用单位根检验、协整理论、误差修正模型等现代计量分析方法,通过对我国1992-2006年的年度数据的分析与处理,探讨得出对我国房地产周期波动影响显著的因素,并据此提出在房地产周期波动中政府和房地产商应对周期波动的对策。
National economic development process shows that economic fluctuations are the accompanying phenomenon in the process of economic growth. The real estate industry is an objective cycle fluctuations which is like the macroeconomic fluctuations in the course of the cycle. In China, many parts of the national economy are closely related to real estate industries, which are featured as a long industrial chain and driving effects. Therefore, the changes of real estate industries will have greater influence on other industries. So, recognizing the cause of the real estate cycle fluctuations correctly, analyzing and reaserching on cycle fluctuations in the real estate cycle will not only promote the sustainable, healthy and stable development of the real estate industry, but also have very important theoretical and practical significance to guide the operation of all parties involved in real estate and select the appropriate strategy to go with the cycle running.
The study summarized the major theories of economic cycle fluctuations and economic cycle fluctuations in the real estate and proposed the formation stage and characteristics of the real estate economic cycle fluctuations. On the basis of learning from research results about economic cycle theories and exsiting domestic and international real estate cycle theories, it analyzes the main influential factors of chinese real estate cycle fluctuations. The influential factors of real estate cycle fluctuations can be divided into macroeconomic factors, land, capital, market factors and psychological factors. These factors are not in relatively independent existence, but interrelated and mutually affected with each other. Along this trail, from a qualitative point of view, the study analyzes each factor exactly and demonstrates the relationships between chinese real estate cycle fluctuations and the factors. Furthermore, from a quantitative point of view, econometric model of chinese real estate cycle fluctuations factors is established by analyzing the influence of fluctuations in chinese real estate cycle. By using of unit root test, coordinative theory, error correction model, and other modern measures and studying on annual data from 1992 to 2006, the studies in the paper research into significant factors of chinese real estate cycle fluctuations, and accordingly, put forward countermeasures in the cycle fluctuations in response to the government and the real estate cycle fluctuations.
引文
1王国军,刘水杏.房地产业对相关产业的带动效应研究.经济研究. 2004, (8): 38-40
2哈伯勒.繁荣与萧条.朱英庚等译.商务印书馆, 1995: 64
3 Schumpeter, Joseph. The Business Cycle-Atheoretical. HillBook Company, 1964: 95
4凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论.商务印书馆中译本, 1983: 267
5巴罗.现代经济周期理论.商务印书馆, 1997: 2-4
6 Geoffrey H. Moore.Business Cycle Indicatou Volume I Contribution to the A. nalysis of Current Business Conditions. Prineton. 1961: 85
7 Leo Grebler and Leland S .Burns. Construction Cycles in the United States Since World WarⅡ. ARERER, 1982: 237
8 Bruce Harwood. Real Estate Principal. Reston Publishing CO. Virginal. 1977: 267-271
9 Stephen A. Pyhrr and James R. Cooper. Real Estate Investment. John Willey and Sons. Inc. 1982: 166
10 Stephen A. Pyhrr.Austins Persistent Real Estate Cycle :From Boom to Bust to Robust (A Four Part Article). Greater Austin’s Commercial Property Journal. 1994: 195-199
11 Barras, R. Ferguson. Dynamic Modelling of the Building Cycle. Enironment and Planning. March 1987: 353-367
12李斌,丁烈云,叶艳兵.城市房地产市场综合景气指数的构造与分析.华中科技大学学报(城市科学版). 2003, (3): 9-10
13 Mueller G R.Real Estate Rental Growth Rates at Different Points in the Physical Market Cycle.Journal of Real Estate Research. 1999, (1): 130-150
14 Hartzell D. J. S. Hekman. M.E.Miles. Real Estate Returns and Inflation. Journal and Urban Economics Association. 1987: 32-47
15 Pyhrr. S. A. W. L. Born and J. R. Webb. Development of a Dynamic Investment Strategy Under Alternative Inflation Cycle Scenarios. The Journal of Real Estate Research. 1990, (2): 177-193
16 Roulac S. E, D. E. Sobolik. Real Estate Tax Reform: Historic Perspective and Economic Implication. Real Estate Finance. 1985: 13-24
17 Kummerow. M. A System Dynamics Model of Cyclical Office Oversupply. Journal of Real Estate Research. 1999, (1): 233-255
18 Mueller G R, S. Laposa. Rent Distributions Under Alternative Market Cycles. Paper presented at the Twelfth Annual Meeting of the American Real Estate Society, South Lake Tahoe, CA-March 28, 1996: 205-207
19 Crenadier, S. The Persistence of Real Estate Cycle. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics. 1995: 2-10
20 Yoon Dokko, Robert H, Edelstein, Allan J, Lacayo, Danie C, Lee. Real Estate Income and Value Cycle: A Model of Market Dynamics. Journal of Real Estate Research. 1999, (1): 69-95
21 Clayton, J. Market, Fundamentals, Risk and the Canadian Property Cycle: Implications for Property Valuation and Investment Decisions. Journal of Real Estate Research. 1996, (3): 347-367
22谭刚.房地产业周期波动.中外房地产导报. 2006, (13): 35
23张元瑞.中国房地产发展的周期波动.经济研究. 2006, (3): 40-42
24梁桂.中国不动产经济波动与周期的实证研究.经济研究. 2006, (7): 23-24
25何国钊,曹振良,李晟.中国房地产周期研究.经济研究. 2006, (12): 51-56
26谭刚.关于房地产周期波动的比较研究(深圳-中国).中外房地产导报. 2007, (8): 11-14
27谭刚.住宅与房地产.中外房地产导报. 2005, (4): 46
28谢经荣,吕萍,乔志敏.房地产经济学.中国人民大学出版社, 2002: 110
29谭刚.房地产周期波动-理论、实证与政策分析.经济管理出版社, 2001: 71-72
30何国钊,曹振良,李晟.中国房地产周期研究.经济研究. 2006, (12): 51
31库兹涅茨.各国的经济增长.商务印书馆, 1990:转引自罗隆昌.房地产业宏观管理.经济管理出版社, 1999: 1
32时筠仑,雷星晖,苏涛水.价格理论与实践.房价波动与影响因素分析.中国学术期刊电子出版社, 2007: 22
33 Dickey. D. Fuller. W. Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1979,74(6): 427-431
34 Engle, R.F. sand. Granger, C. W. J. Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica. 1987: 251-276
35张晓峒. Eviews使用指南与案例.机械工业出版社, 2006: 85
36 Kwon C S, Shan T S. Co-integration and Stock Market Return[J]. Global Finance Journal. 1999, 10(1): 71-78
37 Engle R.F. Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of U.K.Inflation. Econometrica. 1982: 987-1008
38 Johansen, S. and K, Juselius. Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration. With Application to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 1990, 52(2): 169-210
39周祥.中国房地产周期波动及主要影响因素分析.宜春学院学报. 2005, (12): 83-94
40刘佐.我国房地产税制建设的简要回顾与展望.税务研究. 2006, (3): 51-55
41李品,李世平.土地储备制度与房地产业发展.特区经济. 2006: 23-24
42卢新海,杜超.土地政策参与宏观调控对房地产市场的影响.土地使用制度改革. 2006, (4): 70
43吴海洋.当前土地供应调控的主要任务.城市开发. 2005, (6): 17-18
44郭峰,任宏.中国商品房空置问题研究.华中科技大学学报(城市科学版). 2004, 21(4): 55-56
45陈静.消化空置商品房的对策探析[J].郑州工业高等专科学校学报. 2003, (6): 35-36
46范翰章,石海均,穆秀仁,吕博.对商品房空置若干理论问题的探索[J].中国房地产. 2000, (11): 40-41
47刘旭光,冯晶.浅议商品房空置水平与对策[J].中国房地产金融. 2000, (3): 33-35
48 Liow Kim Hiang. Real Estate and Corporate Valuation:An Asset Pricing Perspective [J]. Managerial and Decision Economics. 2001, (22): 333-341
49牛瑞斌,杨健.论空置商品房的处置对策.济南大学学报. 2001, (4): 7
2哈伯勒.繁荣与萧条.朱英庚等译.商务印书馆, 1995: 64
3 Schumpeter, Joseph. The Business Cycle-Atheoretical. HillBook Company, 1964: 95
4凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论.商务印书馆中译本, 1983: 267
5巴罗.现代经济周期理论.商务印书馆, 1997: 2-4
6 Geoffrey H. Moore.Business Cycle Indicatou Volume I Contribution to the A. nalysis of Current Business Conditions. Prineton. 1961: 85
7 Leo Grebler and Leland S .Burns. Construction Cycles in the United States Since World WarⅡ. ARERER, 1982: 237
8 Bruce Harwood. Real Estate Principal. Reston Publishing CO. Virginal. 1977: 267-271
9 Stephen A. Pyhrr and James R. Cooper. Real Estate Investment. John Willey and Sons. Inc. 1982: 166
10 Stephen A. Pyhrr.Austins Persistent Real Estate Cycle :From Boom to Bust to Robust (A Four Part Article). Greater Austin’s Commercial Property Journal. 1994: 195-199
11 Barras, R. Ferguson. Dynamic Modelling of the Building Cycle. Enironment and Planning. March 1987: 353-367
12李斌,丁烈云,叶艳兵.城市房地产市场综合景气指数的构造与分析.华中科技大学学报(城市科学版). 2003, (3): 9-10
13 Mueller G R.Real Estate Rental Growth Rates at Different Points in the Physical Market Cycle.Journal of Real Estate Research. 1999, (1): 130-150
14 Hartzell D. J. S. Hekman. M.E.Miles. Real Estate Returns and Inflation. Journal and Urban Economics Association. 1987: 32-47
15 Pyhrr. S. A. W. L. Born and J. R. Webb. Development of a Dynamic Investment Strategy Under Alternative Inflation Cycle Scenarios. The Journal of Real Estate Research. 1990, (2): 177-193
16 Roulac S. E, D. E. Sobolik. Real Estate Tax Reform: Historic Perspective and Economic Implication. Real Estate Finance. 1985: 13-24
17 Kummerow. M. A System Dynamics Model of Cyclical Office Oversupply. Journal of Real Estate Research. 1999, (1): 233-255
18 Mueller G R, S. Laposa. Rent Distributions Under Alternative Market Cycles. Paper presented at the Twelfth Annual Meeting of the American Real Estate Society, South Lake Tahoe, CA-March 28, 1996: 205-207
19 Crenadier, S. The Persistence of Real Estate Cycle. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics. 1995: 2-10
20 Yoon Dokko, Robert H, Edelstein, Allan J, Lacayo, Danie C, Lee. Real Estate Income and Value Cycle: A Model of Market Dynamics. Journal of Real Estate Research. 1999, (1): 69-95
21 Clayton, J. Market, Fundamentals, Risk and the Canadian Property Cycle: Implications for Property Valuation and Investment Decisions. Journal of Real Estate Research. 1996, (3): 347-367
22谭刚.房地产业周期波动.中外房地产导报. 2006, (13): 35
23张元瑞.中国房地产发展的周期波动.经济研究. 2006, (3): 40-42
24梁桂.中国不动产经济波动与周期的实证研究.经济研究. 2006, (7): 23-24
25何国钊,曹振良,李晟.中国房地产周期研究.经济研究. 2006, (12): 51-56
26谭刚.关于房地产周期波动的比较研究(深圳-中国).中外房地产导报. 2007, (8): 11-14
27谭刚.住宅与房地产.中外房地产导报. 2005, (4): 46
28谢经荣,吕萍,乔志敏.房地产经济学.中国人民大学出版社, 2002: 110
29谭刚.房地产周期波动-理论、实证与政策分析.经济管理出版社, 2001: 71-72
30何国钊,曹振良,李晟.中国房地产周期研究.经济研究. 2006, (12): 51
31库兹涅茨.各国的经济增长.商务印书馆, 1990:转引自罗隆昌.房地产业宏观管理.经济管理出版社, 1999: 1
32时筠仑,雷星晖,苏涛水.价格理论与实践.房价波动与影响因素分析.中国学术期刊电子出版社, 2007: 22
33 Dickey. D. Fuller. W. Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1979,74(6): 427-431
34 Engle, R.F. sand. Granger, C. W. J. Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica. 1987: 251-276
35张晓峒. Eviews使用指南与案例.机械工业出版社, 2006: 85
36 Kwon C S, Shan T S. Co-integration and Stock Market Return[J]. Global Finance Journal. 1999, 10(1): 71-78
37 Engle R.F. Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of U.K.Inflation. Econometrica. 1982: 987-1008
38 Johansen, S. and K, Juselius. Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration. With Application to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 1990, 52(2): 169-210
39周祥.中国房地产周期波动及主要影响因素分析.宜春学院学报. 2005, (12): 83-94
40刘佐.我国房地产税制建设的简要回顾与展望.税务研究. 2006, (3): 51-55
41李品,李世平.土地储备制度与房地产业发展.特区经济. 2006: 23-24
42卢新海,杜超.土地政策参与宏观调控对房地产市场的影响.土地使用制度改革. 2006, (4): 70
43吴海洋.当前土地供应调控的主要任务.城市开发. 2005, (6): 17-18
44郭峰,任宏.中国商品房空置问题研究.华中科技大学学报(城市科学版). 2004, 21(4): 55-56
45陈静.消化空置商品房的对策探析[J].郑州工业高等专科学校学报. 2003, (6): 35-36
46范翰章,石海均,穆秀仁,吕博.对商品房空置若干理论问题的探索[J].中国房地产. 2000, (11): 40-41
47刘旭光,冯晶.浅议商品房空置水平与对策[J].中国房地产金融. 2000, (3): 33-35
48 Liow Kim Hiang. Real Estate and Corporate Valuation:An Asset Pricing Perspective [J]. Managerial and Decision Economics. 2001, (22): 333-341
49牛瑞斌,杨健.论空置商品房的处置对策.济南大学学报. 2001, (4): 7