中国经济发展中的金融结构研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,中国经济取得了举世瞩目的成就,与之相对的,中国的金融体系也不断完善与发展。众所周知,中国的金融体系是从改革开放前“大一统”转变为现在这个多种金融工具共存的全方位金融体系,银行业一直主导着我国金融资本配置,而股票市场由于发展时间较短,在规模和功能上还尚需完善,可以说我国处于一个以银行为主导的金融结构中。那么这样的金融结构对经济发展起到什么样的作用是值得我们认真考察的,可以为中国经济建设和金融结构调整提供一定的理论依据。
本文中的金融结构是指一国金融体系提供的融资结构,即间接融资(银行市场)与直接融资(股票市场)的构成或比例。在全面梳理金融结构相关研究文献和对中国经济发展中的金融结构现状及经济发展与金融结构基础关系进行分析基础上,提出本文研究框架,即经济发展需要通过公平和效率两个方面进行衡量,而经济发展的效率方面体现在经济总量增长、产业结构和创新三个方面,经济发展的公平方面则体现在国民幸福指数上。
在进行金融结构与经济增长的研究中,构建企业与金融中介的两部门,并求解其静态均衡条件,得出金融结构与经济增长可能的关系。利用1994-2009年省级面板数据,构建面板向量自回归模型,实证检验经济增长、银行市场与股票市场的关系,而后引入居民可支配收入变量,构建四变量面板向量自回归模型,对经济增长与金融结构的关系进行深入验证。得出我国的银行主导型金融结构与经济增长确实存在正的双向作用,但是经济增长对银行市场和股票市场的影响作用较大,而银行市场和股票市场对经济增长的作用较为微弱,并且在经济发展较快的地区金融中介对经济增长的促进作用较大,在经济发展较慢的地区金融市场对经济增长的促进作用较大。居民可支配收入对经济增长和金融结构都具有强大的促进作用,但是需要指出的是经济发展越快的地区,居民可支配收入发挥的作用越大,而在经济欠发达的西部地区居民可支配收入对经济增长、金融中介和金融市场的作用基本可以忽略。
在进行金融结构与产业结构的研究中,构建两部门(大制造业,小服务业)及具有企业家才能和储蓄的个人的理论框架,说明存在金融融资成本的情况下,两部门如何获得融资,进一步说明金融结构对产业结构的影响。利用1994-2009年省级面板数据,构建产业结构升级与金融结构的计量模型,采取系统广义距方法进行估算,得出金融结构对产业结构升级优化率和升级质量的影响,研究表明：我国省级层面股票市场发展对于衡量产业结构总量变化的产业结构优化率指标的影响并不显著,但股票市场发展确实对于衡量产业结构质量变化的研发经费支出具有显著的正向促进作用；银行信贷规模对于产业结构优化率有显著的正向影响,但其对于研发经费支出的影响则并不显著,甚至相关系数为负,这表明银行的信贷资金很多时候并没有进入到地区或企业的科研开发中去,可能更多地流向了生产扩大化等领域,或者是过度投资形成了重复建设。
在进行金融结构与创新的研究中,构建投资者进行创新活动的理论框架,说明外部融资对创新活动的影响,进一步说明金融结构对创新活动可能的影响。利用1998-2009年省级专利数据(分为发明、实用新型、外观设计三种),构建创新与金融结构的计量模型,采取双向固定效应方法进行估算,得出金融结构对创新的影响,研究表明：中国银行主导型金融结构对创新互动起到了一定的支持,为创新活动提供了一定的外部融资。从长期看,银行市场一直为创新活动提供必要的资金支持,而股票市场则关系不显著,在短期内,股票市场的作用开始显著；金融结构对不同的创新活动提供不同的支持。可以说,发明、实用新型和外观设计是从难到易的创新活动,银行市场则提供的支持也是从难到易的,即银行市场对发明的支持最有力,实用新型次之,而外观设计则排在最后,而在近几年,银行市场对实用新型和外观设计提供的支持则变成不显著了,股票市场为创新活动提供则主要集中在外观设计和实用新型,近年来的效果尤其明显。
在进行金融结构与国民幸福指数的研究中,构建国民幸福指数评价指标体系,并利用因子分析法进行测算。利用1994-2010年中国时间序列数据,构建国民幸福指数与金融结构的计量模型,采取稳健最小二乘法进行估算,得出金融结构对国民幸福指数的影响,研究表明：外部金融结构对国民幸福指数提升具有力度不大但显著的正向影响,多元化的金融结构更有利于国民幸福指数的提高,金融工具总量的提高对国民幸福指数有正向促进作用。
根据上述理论分析和实证研究,得出关于中国经济发展中的金融结构调整的政策建议,竞争性银行主导型金融结构是金融结构调整的战略选择,金融法制是金融结构调整的根本保障,逐步完善现代化商业银行体系是金融结构调整的重中之重,大力发展多元化的股票市场是金融结构调整的未来取向。
Since reforming and opening-up, with the continuous improvement of financial system, China's economy has gained the success that attracts worldwide attention. In China, as we know, financial system has transformed from "great unification", which is before reforming and opening, to a comprehensive system with multiple financial instruments. It is obvious that banking industry plays a significant role in dominating our country's financial capital allocation, while the stock market still needs to improve no matter in the scale or the function, due to the immature of the stock market development. Therefore, it can be said that China is in a financial structure dominated by banking. It is worth to examine what kind of roles financial structure has played in promoting the economic development and it will provide a certain theoretical basis for China's economic construction and financial structure adjustment.
In this paper, financial structure means financing structure provided by a country's financial system, that is, the composition or proportion of the indirect financing (banking market) and direct financing (stock market). By reviewing the relevant literatures about financial structure, analyzing the current situation of financial structure as well as the basic relationship between financial structure and economic development, we have the framework of this paper that economic development can measure from two aspects, one is efficiency, and another is justice. The efficiency can measure from economic growth, industrial structure and innovation. The justice can measure from National Happiness Index.
In the research of financial structure and economic growth, this paper constructs two sectors, enterprise and financial intermediaries, and solves its static equilibrium condition, in order to obtain the possible relationship between the financial structure and economic growth. With provincial panel data from1994to2009, it constructs a Panel Vector Autoregressive Model and empirical examines the relationship of economic growth, bank market, and stock market. After that, it also introduces resident's disposable income variable and constructs Panel Vector Autoregressive Model with four variables, to further test the relationship between economic growth and financial structure. It finds that positive bi-directional effects do exist between bank-based financial structure and economic growth. However, economic growth has a greater effect on bank and stock market, while bank and stock market has a less effect on economic growth. Furthermore, in the regions with rapid economic development, financial intermediaries has greater impact on promoting economic growth, while in the regions with slow development, financial markets has positive effect. For the effect of resident's disposable income, it should be pointed out that resident's disposable income has a greater effect in the developed region, while in the underdeveloped regions, the effect could be ignored.
In the research of financial structure and industrial structure, by constructing two sectors (manufacturing and services) and a individual theoretical framework with entrepreneurial ability and savings, this paper states how this two sectors financing the funds by considering the financing cost and the effects of financial structure on industrial structure. With the provincial panel data from1994to2009, it finds the effect of financial structure on upgrading optimization rate and upgrading quality of industrial structure, by constructing the model of industrial structure upgrading and financial structure and adopting system GMM estimation. The research points out:the development of provincial level of stock market does not have significant effect on industrial structure's optimization rate index for measuring the total change of industrial structure, however, the development of stock market has a significant positive effect on R&D expense, which is measure the quality change in the industrial structure; Credit scale of banking has a significant positive effect on industrial structure's optimization rate, however, it does not have significant effect on R&D expense. The negative correlation coefficient indicates the credit funds of bank may not enter into the regional or enterprise's research and development at most of time, it may possible enter into the production enlargement area, or form repeated construction through over investment.
In the research of financial structure and innovation, by constructing a theoretical framework of innovation activities, which is conducted by investor, this paper not only points out the external financing has effect on innovation, but also further explains that the financial structure has possible impact on innovation activities. With the provincial patent data from1998to2009, it analyzes the effect of financial structure on innovation and constructs a model of innovation and financial structure, by using two sides fixed effect method. The research indicates:the financial structure plays an important role in supporting the innovation interaction and it provides a certain external financing for innovation activity. In the long run, bank market will provide necessary financial support for innovation activities, while such relationship in the stock market is not significant. In the short run, the role of stock market becomes significant. Therefore, it is obvious that financial structure will provide different support for different innovation activities. It can be said that invention, utility model and appearance design are innovation activity which is ranged from hard to easy, and the support provided by bank market is also from hard to easy. On the other hand, in recent years, bank market has less effect on utility model and appearance design, while stock market has significant effect on supporting innovation, especially in aspect of utility model and appearance design.
In the research of financial structure and National Happiness Index, this paper built the evaluation system of NHI and calculated with factor analysis. Then, with the time series data from1994to2010, it analyzes the effect of financial structure on NHI and constructs a model of NHI and financial structure, by using robust OLS method. The research indicates:the financial structure provides a certain but not obvious positive support for NHI, pluralism financial structure is benefit to improve the NHI, increasing the gross financial instruments may have positive effection to NHI.
According to the above theoretical analysis and empirical study, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions of financial structure adjustment on China's economic development. Obviously, bank-based financial structure is the strategic choice of financial structure adjustment, and financial legal system is the basic guarantee. Therefore, gradually perfect the modern commercial banking system becomes the most important point in the financial structure adjustment, it is necessary to develop a diversified stock market to adjust the financial structure in the future.
本文中的金融结构是指一国金融体系提供的融资结构,即间接融资(银行市场)与直接融资(股票市场)的构成或比例。在全面梳理金融结构相关研究文献和对中国经济发展中的金融结构现状及经济发展与金融结构基础关系进行分析基础上,提出本文研究框架,即经济发展需要通过公平和效率两个方面进行衡量,而经济发展的效率方面体现在经济总量增长、产业结构和创新三个方面,经济发展的公平方面则体现在国民幸福指数上。
在进行金融结构与经济增长的研究中,构建企业与金融中介的两部门,并求解其静态均衡条件,得出金融结构与经济增长可能的关系。利用1994-2009年省级面板数据,构建面板向量自回归模型,实证检验经济增长、银行市场与股票市场的关系,而后引入居民可支配收入变量,构建四变量面板向量自回归模型,对经济增长与金融结构的关系进行深入验证。得出我国的银行主导型金融结构与经济增长确实存在正的双向作用,但是经济增长对银行市场和股票市场的影响作用较大,而银行市场和股票市场对经济增长的作用较为微弱,并且在经济发展较快的地区金融中介对经济增长的促进作用较大,在经济发展较慢的地区金融市场对经济增长的促进作用较大。居民可支配收入对经济增长和金融结构都具有强大的促进作用,但是需要指出的是经济发展越快的地区,居民可支配收入发挥的作用越大,而在经济欠发达的西部地区居民可支配收入对经济增长、金融中介和金融市场的作用基本可以忽略。
在进行金融结构与产业结构的研究中,构建两部门(大制造业,小服务业)及具有企业家才能和储蓄的个人的理论框架,说明存在金融融资成本的情况下,两部门如何获得融资,进一步说明金融结构对产业结构的影响。利用1994-2009年省级面板数据,构建产业结构升级与金融结构的计量模型,采取系统广义距方法进行估算,得出金融结构对产业结构升级优化率和升级质量的影响,研究表明：我国省级层面股票市场发展对于衡量产业结构总量变化的产业结构优化率指标的影响并不显著,但股票市场发展确实对于衡量产业结构质量变化的研发经费支出具有显著的正向促进作用；银行信贷规模对于产业结构优化率有显著的正向影响,但其对于研发经费支出的影响则并不显著,甚至相关系数为负,这表明银行的信贷资金很多时候并没有进入到地区或企业的科研开发中去,可能更多地流向了生产扩大化等领域,或者是过度投资形成了重复建设。
在进行金融结构与创新的研究中,构建投资者进行创新活动的理论框架,说明外部融资对创新活动的影响,进一步说明金融结构对创新活动可能的影响。利用1998-2009年省级专利数据(分为发明、实用新型、外观设计三种),构建创新与金融结构的计量模型,采取双向固定效应方法进行估算,得出金融结构对创新的影响,研究表明：中国银行主导型金融结构对创新互动起到了一定的支持,为创新活动提供了一定的外部融资。从长期看,银行市场一直为创新活动提供必要的资金支持,而股票市场则关系不显著,在短期内,股票市场的作用开始显著；金融结构对不同的创新活动提供不同的支持。可以说,发明、实用新型和外观设计是从难到易的创新活动,银行市场则提供的支持也是从难到易的,即银行市场对发明的支持最有力,实用新型次之,而外观设计则排在最后,而在近几年,银行市场对实用新型和外观设计提供的支持则变成不显著了,股票市场为创新活动提供则主要集中在外观设计和实用新型,近年来的效果尤其明显。
在进行金融结构与国民幸福指数的研究中,构建国民幸福指数评价指标体系,并利用因子分析法进行测算。利用1994-2010年中国时间序列数据,构建国民幸福指数与金融结构的计量模型,采取稳健最小二乘法进行估算,得出金融结构对国民幸福指数的影响,研究表明：外部金融结构对国民幸福指数提升具有力度不大但显著的正向影响,多元化的金融结构更有利于国民幸福指数的提高,金融工具总量的提高对国民幸福指数有正向促进作用。
根据上述理论分析和实证研究,得出关于中国经济发展中的金融结构调整的政策建议,竞争性银行主导型金融结构是金融结构调整的战略选择,金融法制是金融结构调整的根本保障,逐步完善现代化商业银行体系是金融结构调整的重中之重,大力发展多元化的股票市场是金融结构调整的未来取向。
Since reforming and opening-up, with the continuous improvement of financial system, China's economy has gained the success that attracts worldwide attention. In China, as we know, financial system has transformed from "great unification", which is before reforming and opening, to a comprehensive system with multiple financial instruments. It is obvious that banking industry plays a significant role in dominating our country's financial capital allocation, while the stock market still needs to improve no matter in the scale or the function, due to the immature of the stock market development. Therefore, it can be said that China is in a financial structure dominated by banking. It is worth to examine what kind of roles financial structure has played in promoting the economic development and it will provide a certain theoretical basis for China's economic construction and financial structure adjustment.
In this paper, financial structure means financing structure provided by a country's financial system, that is, the composition or proportion of the indirect financing (banking market) and direct financing (stock market). By reviewing the relevant literatures about financial structure, analyzing the current situation of financial structure as well as the basic relationship between financial structure and economic development, we have the framework of this paper that economic development can measure from two aspects, one is efficiency, and another is justice. The efficiency can measure from economic growth, industrial structure and innovation. The justice can measure from National Happiness Index.
In the research of financial structure and economic growth, this paper constructs two sectors, enterprise and financial intermediaries, and solves its static equilibrium condition, in order to obtain the possible relationship between the financial structure and economic growth. With provincial panel data from1994to2009, it constructs a Panel Vector Autoregressive Model and empirical examines the relationship of economic growth, bank market, and stock market. After that, it also introduces resident's disposable income variable and constructs Panel Vector Autoregressive Model with four variables, to further test the relationship between economic growth and financial structure. It finds that positive bi-directional effects do exist between bank-based financial structure and economic growth. However, economic growth has a greater effect on bank and stock market, while bank and stock market has a less effect on economic growth. Furthermore, in the regions with rapid economic development, financial intermediaries has greater impact on promoting economic growth, while in the regions with slow development, financial markets has positive effect. For the effect of resident's disposable income, it should be pointed out that resident's disposable income has a greater effect in the developed region, while in the underdeveloped regions, the effect could be ignored.
In the research of financial structure and industrial structure, by constructing two sectors (manufacturing and services) and a individual theoretical framework with entrepreneurial ability and savings, this paper states how this two sectors financing the funds by considering the financing cost and the effects of financial structure on industrial structure. With the provincial panel data from1994to2009, it finds the effect of financial structure on upgrading optimization rate and upgrading quality of industrial structure, by constructing the model of industrial structure upgrading and financial structure and adopting system GMM estimation. The research points out:the development of provincial level of stock market does not have significant effect on industrial structure's optimization rate index for measuring the total change of industrial structure, however, the development of stock market has a significant positive effect on R&D expense, which is measure the quality change in the industrial structure; Credit scale of banking has a significant positive effect on industrial structure's optimization rate, however, it does not have significant effect on R&D expense. The negative correlation coefficient indicates the credit funds of bank may not enter into the regional or enterprise's research and development at most of time, it may possible enter into the production enlargement area, or form repeated construction through over investment.
In the research of financial structure and innovation, by constructing a theoretical framework of innovation activities, which is conducted by investor, this paper not only points out the external financing has effect on innovation, but also further explains that the financial structure has possible impact on innovation activities. With the provincial patent data from1998to2009, it analyzes the effect of financial structure on innovation and constructs a model of innovation and financial structure, by using two sides fixed effect method. The research indicates:the financial structure plays an important role in supporting the innovation interaction and it provides a certain external financing for innovation activity. In the long run, bank market will provide necessary financial support for innovation activities, while such relationship in the stock market is not significant. In the short run, the role of stock market becomes significant. Therefore, it is obvious that financial structure will provide different support for different innovation activities. It can be said that invention, utility model and appearance design are innovation activity which is ranged from hard to easy, and the support provided by bank market is also from hard to easy. On the other hand, in recent years, bank market has less effect on utility model and appearance design, while stock market has significant effect on supporting innovation, especially in aspect of utility model and appearance design.
In the research of financial structure and National Happiness Index, this paper built the evaluation system of NHI and calculated with factor analysis. Then, with the time series data from1994to2010, it analyzes the effect of financial structure on NHI and constructs a model of NHI and financial structure, by using robust OLS method. The research indicates:the financial structure provides a certain but not obvious positive support for NHI, pluralism financial structure is benefit to improve the NHI, increasing the gross financial instruments may have positive effection to NHI.
According to the above theoretical analysis and empirical study, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions of financial structure adjustment on China's economic development. Obviously, bank-based financial structure is the strategic choice of financial structure adjustment, and financial legal system is the basic guarantee. Therefore, gradually perfect the modern commercial banking system becomes the most important point in the financial structure adjustment, it is necessary to develop a diversified stock market to adjust the financial structure in the future.
引文
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①本节内容主要来源于作者已发表的论文,仲深,王春宇.地区金融发展水平综合评价及比较分析[J].技术经济,2011.
(10)：94-98,109。计算所得数据可参见论文.在此不再列示,仅就计算方法进行说明。
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②数据来源于《1994年中国金融年鉴》。
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④文中将四川和重庆的数据合并在了一起；此外,青海和西藏的相关数据缺失较多,所以也被剔除。
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(10)：94-98,109。计算所得数据可参见论文.在此不再列示,仅就计算方法进行说明。
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