重庆生物医药产业技术预见及其对策研究
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摘要
生物医药产业被誉为是21世纪最具有发展潜力和国际竞争最激烈的“朝阳产业”,世界许多国家和国内众多地区竞相列为重点扶持发展的战略产业。重庆地处西部,资源有限,如何把握生物医药技术的趋势,合理配置科技资源,准确选择产业的优先发展领域,对重庆未来的发展具有十分重要的作用和意义。
技术预见被认为是当前产业发展对策研究最好的战略规划工具之一。由于不同国家和地区经济、社会、科技的差异,如何构建适合本身的技术预见内容,使用适合本身发展情况的预见模式成为技术预见研究的热点。本文从技术预见理论出发,结合区域竞争力理论,提出“产业发展趋势和现状分析—产业区域竞争力分析—建立备选指标体系—预测—投入研发可能性判别—产业化难易程度判别—选择—发展对策”的技术预见模式,以重庆生物医药产业为研究对象,进行技术预见,以期获得重庆生物医药产业优先发展领域和关键技术选择,提出重庆生物医药产业的发展对策。一方面,是对重庆生物医药产业区域发展对策的系统研究;另一方面,也是从区域竞争力和技术预见相结合的角度,从“产业发展趋势和现状分析—产业区域竞争力分析—建立备选指标体系—预测—投入研发可能性判别—产业化难易程度判别—选择—发展对策”全过程和科技、经济、社会三维角度研究区域产业发展对策的一种创新模式和理论尝试。
竞争力分析的结果:重庆生物医药产业尚不具备国际竞争能力。从科技竞争力看,疫苗、组织工程、干细胞、单克隆抗体等领域研究实力相对较强;从产业竞争力看,重庆生物医药技术创新指数为15.24,创新能力水平处于国内梯形的中间阶段,低于全国平均值,尤其创新投入能力较弱;从产业集聚程度看,重庆生物医药集群效应初步形成,是区域内各高新技术产业中集聚优势最显著的产业。技术预见的结果:重大传染病(艾滋病,肝炎、禽流感等)预防用疫苗,重大疾病的治疗性疫苗、心脑血管,自身免疫、糖尿病等重大疾病的抗体药物,单克隆抗体生产技术平台,天然药物原料制备技术等对重庆生物医药产业经济增长、竞争力和城市发展的重要性优先程度较高;天然药物原料制备技术,重大传染病(艾滋病,肝炎、禽流感等)预防用疫苗,基于抗体的生物标志临床诊断试剂,传染病快速诊断试剂的研制,超声治疗技术及设备研发是较易实现产业化的领域。优先度与可实现度的聚类分析结果,重庆生物医药产业的优先发展领域为:重大传染病(艾滋病,肝炎、禽流感等)预防用疫苗,天然药物原料制备技术,传染病快速诊断试剂的研制,基于抗体的生物标志临床诊断试剂等四个领域。
采用SWOT分析,提出通过最佳资源组合获得竞争优势;提供资源强化扩展竞争优势;重新构建组织资源获得竞争优势;采取防守战略,抓住优先发展领域等有前景的机会;加强科技投入,将劣势转化为优势开拓机会;加强战略研究,力求劣势与威胁两者的不利影响趋于最小等竞争策略。
综合分析,提出了创造有利于生物医药产业发展的新机制,创造有利于生物医药产业发展的投融资体系,提升生物医药产业的自主创新能力,打破生物医药产业的人才“瓶颈”,加强生物医药产业的创新平台建设和促进生物医药产业的合作与交流等产业政策建议。
The pharmaceutical and health biotech industry is called a sun rise industry in the 21 century, which is of most potential of development and international competitiveness. It is a strategic industry on the priority list of many countries and many regions in China. Located in the west of China, Chongqing is a city short of resources. Making a regional development strategy of health biotech and biopharmaceutical industry is of crucial importance and great meaning to the successful development of the health biotech and biopharmaceutical industry of Chongqing.
Through the whole procedure of Evaluation, Forecasting, Selection, R & D Possibilities, Difficulty Level of Industrialization, Re-selection and Development, a new mode of regional development strategy was formulated by referring to the practical situation of S & T, economic and social development. Based on the analysis of the international, national and local development status, trend and rule of the health biotech and biopharmaceutical industry, combined with the related theories and models of regional competition, the regional competitiveness of the health biotech and biopharmaceutical industry in Chongqing was discussed by means of parent and literature metrology, technical innovation index, and location quotient analysis, etc. An optional system of health biotech and biopharmaceutical technical foresight was then determined and evaluated through statistical analysis, fuzzy clustering analysis and SWOT analysis. Finally, a regional development strategy of health biotech and biopharmaceutical industry was brought forward.
Results of analysis on competitiveness: The health biotech and biopharmaceutical industry in Chongqing hasn’t formed its international competitiveness. It has comparatively strong S&T competitiveness in research fields like vaccine, tissue engineering, stem cells and monoclonal antibody, while has an innovative ability at moderate level with an index of 15.24, which is below the national average featuring low input but high output for innovation. From the perspective of industrial agglomeration degree, the health biotech and biopharmaceutical industrial cluster functions of Chongqing has begun to take shape, which has the most considerable advantage among the hi-tech industries of the region.
Results of technical foresight: The vaccines for the major infections of AIDS, hepatitis and bird flu, etc; the therapeutic vaccines for major diseases; the antibody pharmacy for major diseases of cardiovascular disease, immune disease or diabetes; the technology platform for monoclonal antibody production; the preparation techniques for raw materials of the natural medicine; the screening platform for drug target; the gene therapy of tumor; the technology for ultrasound therapy and the R&D of facilities; the new vaccine adjuvants and the delivery systems; the transplants and the transplant techniques for autologous, allogeneic, heterologous tissue, all of which are the major concerns in the economic growth and the formation of competitiveness of the health biotech and biopharmaceutical industry in Chongqing and the urban development of the city. Among the listed, the following areas are easier to industrialize: the preparation techniques for raw materials of the natural medicine; the vaccines for the major infections of AIDS, hepatitis and bird flu, etc; the clinical diagnostic reagents of antibody-based biomarker; the R&D of rapid diagnosis reagents for infections; the technology for ultrasound therapy and the R&D of facilities. The cluster analyses of priority and workability show that the priority areas of the health biotech and biopharmaceutical industry in Chongqing lay in four areas including the vaccines for the major infections of AIDS, hepatitis and bird flu, etc; the preparation techniques for raw materials of the natural medicine; the R&D of rapid diagnosis reagents for infections and the clinical diagnostic reagents of antibody-based biomarker.
The modes of the development strategy of the health biotech and biopharmaceutical industry in Chongqing vary in view of the different status quo of the advantages and disadvantages, opportunities and challenges, such as seeking optimal portfolio to achieve competitiveness; providing resources for strengthening and extending competitiveness; restructuring organizations to obtain competitiveness and turning challenges into opportunities; adopting defensive strategies to seize most potential opportunities; increasing input in science, trying to improve creativity, promoting integration of production, study and research and turning disadvantages into advantages to explore opportunities; promoting strategic research, identifying the priorities of development, innovating the development modes to minimize the negative effects of the disadvantages and challenges.
技术预见被认为是当前产业发展对策研究最好的战略规划工具之一。由于不同国家和地区经济、社会、科技的差异,如何构建适合本身的技术预见内容,使用适合本身发展情况的预见模式成为技术预见研究的热点。本文从技术预见理论出发,结合区域竞争力理论,提出“产业发展趋势和现状分析—产业区域竞争力分析—建立备选指标体系—预测—投入研发可能性判别—产业化难易程度判别—选择—发展对策”的技术预见模式,以重庆生物医药产业为研究对象,进行技术预见,以期获得重庆生物医药产业优先发展领域和关键技术选择,提出重庆生物医药产业的发展对策。一方面,是对重庆生物医药产业区域发展对策的系统研究;另一方面,也是从区域竞争力和技术预见相结合的角度,从“产业发展趋势和现状分析—产业区域竞争力分析—建立备选指标体系—预测—投入研发可能性判别—产业化难易程度判别—选择—发展对策”全过程和科技、经济、社会三维角度研究区域产业发展对策的一种创新模式和理论尝试。
竞争力分析的结果:重庆生物医药产业尚不具备国际竞争能力。从科技竞争力看,疫苗、组织工程、干细胞、单克隆抗体等领域研究实力相对较强;从产业竞争力看,重庆生物医药技术创新指数为15.24,创新能力水平处于国内梯形的中间阶段,低于全国平均值,尤其创新投入能力较弱;从产业集聚程度看,重庆生物医药集群效应初步形成,是区域内各高新技术产业中集聚优势最显著的产业。技术预见的结果:重大传染病(艾滋病,肝炎、禽流感等)预防用疫苗,重大疾病的治疗性疫苗、心脑血管,自身免疫、糖尿病等重大疾病的抗体药物,单克隆抗体生产技术平台,天然药物原料制备技术等对重庆生物医药产业经济增长、竞争力和城市发展的重要性优先程度较高;天然药物原料制备技术,重大传染病(艾滋病,肝炎、禽流感等)预防用疫苗,基于抗体的生物标志临床诊断试剂,传染病快速诊断试剂的研制,超声治疗技术及设备研发是较易实现产业化的领域。优先度与可实现度的聚类分析结果,重庆生物医药产业的优先发展领域为:重大传染病(艾滋病,肝炎、禽流感等)预防用疫苗,天然药物原料制备技术,传染病快速诊断试剂的研制,基于抗体的生物标志临床诊断试剂等四个领域。
采用SWOT分析,提出通过最佳资源组合获得竞争优势;提供资源强化扩展竞争优势;重新构建组织资源获得竞争优势;采取防守战略,抓住优先发展领域等有前景的机会;加强科技投入,将劣势转化为优势开拓机会;加强战略研究,力求劣势与威胁两者的不利影响趋于最小等竞争策略。
综合分析,提出了创造有利于生物医药产业发展的新机制,创造有利于生物医药产业发展的投融资体系,提升生物医药产业的自主创新能力,打破生物医药产业的人才“瓶颈”,加强生物医药产业的创新平台建设和促进生物医药产业的合作与交流等产业政策建议。
The pharmaceutical and health biotech industry is called a sun rise industry in the 21 century, which is of most potential of development and international competitiveness. It is a strategic industry on the priority list of many countries and many regions in China. Located in the west of China, Chongqing is a city short of resources. Making a regional development strategy of health biotech and biopharmaceutical industry is of crucial importance and great meaning to the successful development of the health biotech and biopharmaceutical industry of Chongqing.
Through the whole procedure of Evaluation, Forecasting, Selection, R & D Possibilities, Difficulty Level of Industrialization, Re-selection and Development, a new mode of regional development strategy was formulated by referring to the practical situation of S & T, economic and social development. Based on the analysis of the international, national and local development status, trend and rule of the health biotech and biopharmaceutical industry, combined with the related theories and models of regional competition, the regional competitiveness of the health biotech and biopharmaceutical industry in Chongqing was discussed by means of parent and literature metrology, technical innovation index, and location quotient analysis, etc. An optional system of health biotech and biopharmaceutical technical foresight was then determined and evaluated through statistical analysis, fuzzy clustering analysis and SWOT analysis. Finally, a regional development strategy of health biotech and biopharmaceutical industry was brought forward.
Results of analysis on competitiveness: The health biotech and biopharmaceutical industry in Chongqing hasn’t formed its international competitiveness. It has comparatively strong S&T competitiveness in research fields like vaccine, tissue engineering, stem cells and monoclonal antibody, while has an innovative ability at moderate level with an index of 15.24, which is below the national average featuring low input but high output for innovation. From the perspective of industrial agglomeration degree, the health biotech and biopharmaceutical industrial cluster functions of Chongqing has begun to take shape, which has the most considerable advantage among the hi-tech industries of the region.
Results of technical foresight: The vaccines for the major infections of AIDS, hepatitis and bird flu, etc; the therapeutic vaccines for major diseases; the antibody pharmacy for major diseases of cardiovascular disease, immune disease or diabetes; the technology platform for monoclonal antibody production; the preparation techniques for raw materials of the natural medicine; the screening platform for drug target; the gene therapy of tumor; the technology for ultrasound therapy and the R&D of facilities; the new vaccine adjuvants and the delivery systems; the transplants and the transplant techniques for autologous, allogeneic, heterologous tissue, all of which are the major concerns in the economic growth and the formation of competitiveness of the health biotech and biopharmaceutical industry in Chongqing and the urban development of the city. Among the listed, the following areas are easier to industrialize: the preparation techniques for raw materials of the natural medicine; the vaccines for the major infections of AIDS, hepatitis and bird flu, etc; the clinical diagnostic reagents of antibody-based biomarker; the R&D of rapid diagnosis reagents for infections; the technology for ultrasound therapy and the R&D of facilities. The cluster analyses of priority and workability show that the priority areas of the health biotech and biopharmaceutical industry in Chongqing lay in four areas including the vaccines for the major infections of AIDS, hepatitis and bird flu, etc; the preparation techniques for raw materials of the natural medicine; the R&D of rapid diagnosis reagents for infections and the clinical diagnostic reagents of antibody-based biomarker.
The modes of the development strategy of the health biotech and biopharmaceutical industry in Chongqing vary in view of the different status quo of the advantages and disadvantages, opportunities and challenges, such as seeking optimal portfolio to achieve competitiveness; providing resources for strengthening and extending competitiveness; restructuring organizations to obtain competitiveness and turning challenges into opportunities; adopting defensive strategies to seize most potential opportunities; increasing input in science, trying to improve creativity, promoting integration of production, study and research and turning disadvantages into advantages to explore opportunities; promoting strategic research, identifying the priorities of development, innovating the development modes to minimize the negative effects of the disadvantages and challenges.
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