中国民营企业可持续发展的实证研究
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摘要
本文以中国民营企业可持续发展的影响因素及其作用机制为研究主题,尝试建构一个基于经验实证的系统分析框架,运用2008年468家民营上市公司的截面数据并辅以《中国统计年鉴》资料,采用多元回归、结构方程、主成分分析和聚类分析等现代主流的经济计量和统计研究工具及技术手段,比较全面深入地分析了影响中国民营企业可持续发展的主要因素的单一作用与综合效应,并进一步考察了各主要影响因素的具体作用路径,以期为管理层促进民营企业可持续发展的对策措施提供科学依据。
研究内容分为下述四个方面:
(一)宏观背景透视。本文首先基于新古典增长理论、《中国统计年鉴》的2005—2007年有关数据,构建了面板数据经济计量模型,考察了资本、劳动和外商直接投资(FDI)、国有企业等宏观经济因素对民营企业可持续发展的总体影响和民营企业的区域分布特征。
(二)可持续发展评价。本文在广泛借鉴国内外前沿研究的基础上,通过对民营企业可持续发展内涵的科学界定,结合现代财务管理理论,建构了一个基于盈利、偿债、营运和成长能力的综合评价指标体系。
(三)内部影响因素考察。本文以民营企业可持续发展综合评价值为因变量,根据研究目标和民营上市公司数据的可获性,采用多元回归方法,逐一分析了人力资本、资本结构、企业战略三个主要内部影响因素及其细分变量(自变量)对民营企业可持续发展的具体作用。
(四)外部影响因素补充研究。外部环境特别是政策环境,是影响民营企业可持续发展的一个极其重要的方面。但鉴于难以获取上市公司这方面的有效数据,故本文以税收为例,采用《中国统计年鉴》的有关数据,通过聚类分析,比较分析了不同行业和地区之间,国有企业、外资企业、民营企业之间税收负担的公平性,以及民营企业税收效率。
本文可能的创新如下:(1)提出了国有企业对民营企业存在“溢出效应”,外资企业对民营企业仅存在弱“溢出效应”,甚至是“挤出效应”,打破了外资企业存在很大“溢出效应”而国有企业挤压民营企业的原有理论认识。(2)发现了民营企业国际化程度与企业的可持续发展呈U型关系,国际化与多元化对民营企业可持续发展存在显著交叉效应。(3)创建了“企业单位利润税收负担率”新概念及其计量公式,并据此实证检验了不同行业、不同地区和不同所有制企业的税收负担公平性以及民营企业的税收效率。
This paper focuses on the influencing factors of the sustainable development of Chinese private enterprises (CPEs) and the mechanism of the influence. We attempt to develop a systematically analytical framework which is based on the empirical analysis. The related sectional data of year 2008 of 468 listed private companies and the data from the“Chinese statistical yearbook”are collected. For the purpose of providing some help for the government and the managers of CPEs, we applied such classical and modern methods of econometrics as the multiple regression (MR), structure equation model (SEM), principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) to fully analyze the main factors which have influence on the sustainable development of CPEs in depth. Not only the single and combined impact of these factors is analyzed, but also the mechanism of them is studied.
The main contents and results are as follows:
(1) Inspect the macro-circumstance. we used the related panel data of year 2005 to 2007 from the“Chinese statistical yearbook”, and forwarded a MR model based on the neoclassical growth theory to analyze the overall influence of macro-economical elements, such as the capital, labor, foreign directly investment (FDI) and the government owned enterprises (GOEs) on the sustainable development of CPEs and the regional distribution characters of them.
(2)Evaluate the sustainable development of CPEs. According with the modern research on this area, we redefined the sustainable development of CPEs scientifically. Referring the modern financial management theory, an evaluation model based on the ability to make profit, ability to reimburse, ability to grow and operate is constructed.
(3)Analyze the internal influencing factors. Considering the object of this research and the availability of the data, we analyzed the factors such as human resource, capital structure and the strategy of the company and their indicators individually with MR.
(4) Analyze the external influence factors. The environment, especially the policy environment, is one of the most important forces influence the CPEs’sustainalbe development. But because of the difficulty of collecting the data of that from the sample, we take the tax for example, and chosen the macro-data from the“Chinese statistical yearbook”. With the method of classifying analysis, we compared the fairness between different industries, different areas, and the GOEs, FDI and CPEs. Also we tested the efficiency of tax.
This paper’s innovation could be: First, we proposed the GOEs’spillover effect to CPEs, and the FDI has only a piece of that effect; the FDI has showed some squeeze-out effects. It breaks the former impression that GOEs has the squeeze-out effect and FDI has spillover effects to CPEs. Second, we found the internationalization is related as a U shape to the sustainable development of CPEs, and there is a significant cross impact between multiplication and internationalization. Third, we created a new concept of“company’s ratio of tax per profit unit”and gave the formula of calculation. Based on this, we empirically validated the efficiency and fairness of tax for different areas, industries and ownerships of companies.
研究内容分为下述四个方面:
(一)宏观背景透视。本文首先基于新古典增长理论、《中国统计年鉴》的2005—2007年有关数据,构建了面板数据经济计量模型,考察了资本、劳动和外商直接投资(FDI)、国有企业等宏观经济因素对民营企业可持续发展的总体影响和民营企业的区域分布特征。
(二)可持续发展评价。本文在广泛借鉴国内外前沿研究的基础上,通过对民营企业可持续发展内涵的科学界定,结合现代财务管理理论,建构了一个基于盈利、偿债、营运和成长能力的综合评价指标体系。
(三)内部影响因素考察。本文以民营企业可持续发展综合评价值为因变量,根据研究目标和民营上市公司数据的可获性,采用多元回归方法,逐一分析了人力资本、资本结构、企业战略三个主要内部影响因素及其细分变量(自变量)对民营企业可持续发展的具体作用。
(四)外部影响因素补充研究。外部环境特别是政策环境,是影响民营企业可持续发展的一个极其重要的方面。但鉴于难以获取上市公司这方面的有效数据,故本文以税收为例,采用《中国统计年鉴》的有关数据,通过聚类分析,比较分析了不同行业和地区之间,国有企业、外资企业、民营企业之间税收负担的公平性,以及民营企业税收效率。
本文可能的创新如下:(1)提出了国有企业对民营企业存在“溢出效应”,外资企业对民营企业仅存在弱“溢出效应”,甚至是“挤出效应”,打破了外资企业存在很大“溢出效应”而国有企业挤压民营企业的原有理论认识。(2)发现了民营企业国际化程度与企业的可持续发展呈U型关系,国际化与多元化对民营企业可持续发展存在显著交叉效应。(3)创建了“企业单位利润税收负担率”新概念及其计量公式,并据此实证检验了不同行业、不同地区和不同所有制企业的税收负担公平性以及民营企业的税收效率。
This paper focuses on the influencing factors of the sustainable development of Chinese private enterprises (CPEs) and the mechanism of the influence. We attempt to develop a systematically analytical framework which is based on the empirical analysis. The related sectional data of year 2008 of 468 listed private companies and the data from the“Chinese statistical yearbook”are collected. For the purpose of providing some help for the government and the managers of CPEs, we applied such classical and modern methods of econometrics as the multiple regression (MR), structure equation model (SEM), principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) to fully analyze the main factors which have influence on the sustainable development of CPEs in depth. Not only the single and combined impact of these factors is analyzed, but also the mechanism of them is studied.
The main contents and results are as follows:
(1) Inspect the macro-circumstance. we used the related panel data of year 2005 to 2007 from the“Chinese statistical yearbook”, and forwarded a MR model based on the neoclassical growth theory to analyze the overall influence of macro-economical elements, such as the capital, labor, foreign directly investment (FDI) and the government owned enterprises (GOEs) on the sustainable development of CPEs and the regional distribution characters of them.
(2)Evaluate the sustainable development of CPEs. According with the modern research on this area, we redefined the sustainable development of CPEs scientifically. Referring the modern financial management theory, an evaluation model based on the ability to make profit, ability to reimburse, ability to grow and operate is constructed.
(3)Analyze the internal influencing factors. Considering the object of this research and the availability of the data, we analyzed the factors such as human resource, capital structure and the strategy of the company and their indicators individually with MR.
(4) Analyze the external influence factors. The environment, especially the policy environment, is one of the most important forces influence the CPEs’sustainalbe development. But because of the difficulty of collecting the data of that from the sample, we take the tax for example, and chosen the macro-data from the“Chinese statistical yearbook”. With the method of classifying analysis, we compared the fairness between different industries, different areas, and the GOEs, FDI and CPEs. Also we tested the efficiency of tax.
This paper’s innovation could be: First, we proposed the GOEs’spillover effect to CPEs, and the FDI has only a piece of that effect; the FDI has showed some squeeze-out effects. It breaks the former impression that GOEs has the squeeze-out effect and FDI has spillover effects to CPEs. Second, we found the internationalization is related as a U shape to the sustainable development of CPEs, and there is a significant cross impact between multiplication and internationalization. Third, we created a new concept of“company’s ratio of tax per profit unit”and gave the formula of calculation. Based on this, we empirically validated the efficiency and fairness of tax for different areas, industries and ownerships of companies.
引文
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