基于模糊评价法的供应链风险评价算法改进研究
摘要
随着市场竞争日趋激烈,企业需要寻找一种更为有效的方式提升管理水平。实践证明采用供应链管理方式成为企业提高自身竞争力的有效途径之一,它为企业间协作提供了更加便利的平台。随着信息技术的不断进步和经营环境的竞争加剧,供应链管理已经成为企业获得竞争优势的关键因素之一。随着供应链层数的增加,供应链的成员企业越来越多,供应链的结构日趋复杂,而供应链的复杂性导致了供应链中的风险。
本文介绍了供应链风险管理的研究背景,对国内外研究状况进行了综述,同时介绍了供应链、供应链管理以及风险分析的相关理论知识。提出了普遍性的供应链风险管理的过程,主要包括供应链风险识别、风险估计、风险评价以及风险的预防与控制这四大环节。本文首先阐述了传统的基于模糊综合评价法的供应链风险评价模型,介绍了模型中权值及隶属函数的确定方法,并分析了传统的模糊综合评价法所不具有的时变性、对环境因素弱的应变能力以及采用自适应信号处理的先进思想,根据最小均方误差准则,提出了一种全新的模糊评价算法,该算法因素集的权重可以根据时间的推移逐渐逼近最佳值,从而提高了评估模型的准确性和实用性。
本文推导出的自适应模糊评价法能够降低初始权重设计不合理对评测结果所带来的影响,设计上引入了闭环反馈的思想使得评测结果更稳定,而权重参数的不断更新使得系统具有时变的能力。这些所具备的优点能够为企业提供更准确的评价结果,对企业的发展也具有更大的参考价值。
With the competitive of market increasing, companies need to find a more effective way to enhance the management level. It has been proved that using of supply chain management enterprises can improve their competitiveness in an effective way to one of its inter-firm collaboration provides a more convenient platform. As information technology continues to progress, for the purpose that increasing competition and enhancing business environment, supply chain management has become a business gain a competitive advantage, one of the key factors. As the supply chain, the number of layers, the members of the supply chain more and more enterprises, supply chain structure is becoming more complex and the complexity of supply chains has led to supply chain risks.
This article describes the supply chain risk management research background, research situation at home and abroad were reviewed at the same time introduced the supply chain, supply chain management and risk management related to theoretical knowledge. Put forward the universal supply chain risk management process, the key including supply chain risk identification, risk assessment, risk assessment and risk prevention and control of these four areas. This paper first describes the traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on supply chain risk assessment model, introduced in the model weights, the determination of membership function method and analysis of the traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method which does not have the time variability of environmental factors, the weak adaptability, adaptive signal processing advanced ideas, according to minimum mean square error criteria, proposed a new fuzzy evaluation algorithm that the weight of the factor set based on the passage of time gradually approaching the optimal value, This is to some extent improved the accuracy and usefulness of evaluation model.
In this paper the design of adaptive fuzzy evaluation method can reduce the initial weights of the evaluation results of an unsuitable design of the impact of design companies to introduce the idea of closed-loop feedback makes the evaluation results more stable, while the weight parameters of the continuously updated makes the system with time-varying capacity. These advantages are available to provide enterprises with a more accurate evaluation of results, the development of enterprises also have a greater reference value.
本文介绍了供应链风险管理的研究背景,对国内外研究状况进行了综述,同时介绍了供应链、供应链管理以及风险分析的相关理论知识。提出了普遍性的供应链风险管理的过程,主要包括供应链风险识别、风险估计、风险评价以及风险的预防与控制这四大环节。本文首先阐述了传统的基于模糊综合评价法的供应链风险评价模型,介绍了模型中权值及隶属函数的确定方法,并分析了传统的模糊综合评价法所不具有的时变性、对环境因素弱的应变能力以及采用自适应信号处理的先进思想,根据最小均方误差准则,提出了一种全新的模糊评价算法,该算法因素集的权重可以根据时间的推移逐渐逼近最佳值,从而提高了评估模型的准确性和实用性。
本文推导出的自适应模糊评价法能够降低初始权重设计不合理对评测结果所带来的影响,设计上引入了闭环反馈的思想使得评测结果更稳定,而权重参数的不断更新使得系统具有时变的能力。这些所具备的优点能够为企业提供更准确的评价结果,对企业的发展也具有更大的参考价值。
With the competitive of market increasing, companies need to find a more effective way to enhance the management level. It has been proved that using of supply chain management enterprises can improve their competitiveness in an effective way to one of its inter-firm collaboration provides a more convenient platform. As information technology continues to progress, for the purpose that increasing competition and enhancing business environment, supply chain management has become a business gain a competitive advantage, one of the key factors. As the supply chain, the number of layers, the members of the supply chain more and more enterprises, supply chain structure is becoming more complex and the complexity of supply chains has led to supply chain risks.
This article describes the supply chain risk management research background, research situation at home and abroad were reviewed at the same time introduced the supply chain, supply chain management and risk management related to theoretical knowledge. Put forward the universal supply chain risk management process, the key including supply chain risk identification, risk assessment, risk assessment and risk prevention and control of these four areas. This paper first describes the traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on supply chain risk assessment model, introduced in the model weights, the determination of membership function method and analysis of the traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method which does not have the time variability of environmental factors, the weak adaptability, adaptive signal processing advanced ideas, according to minimum mean square error criteria, proposed a new fuzzy evaluation algorithm that the weight of the factor set based on the passage of time gradually approaching the optimal value, This is to some extent improved the accuracy and usefulness of evaluation model.
In this paper the design of adaptive fuzzy evaluation method can reduce the initial weights of the evaluation results of an unsuitable design of the impact of design companies to introduce the idea of closed-loop feedback makes the evaluation results more stable, while the weight parameters of the continuously updated makes the system with time-varying capacity. These advantages are available to provide enterprises with a more accurate evaluation of results, the development of enterprises also have a greater reference value.
引文
[1]E.Prater, M.Biehl, and M.A.Smith, International Supply Chain Agility, Tradeoffs between Flexibility and Uncertainty, International Journal of Operations and Production Management,2001,21 (5-6), pp.823-839.
[2]L.M.Hunter,C.J.Kasouf, K.G. Celuch, and K.A. Curry, A Classification of Business-to-business Buying Decisions:Risk Importance and Probability as a Framework for E-business Benefit, Industrial Marketing Management,2004,33, pp. 145-154.
[3]J.Hallikas, V. Virolainen, and M.Tuominen, Risk Analysis and Assessment in Network Environment, International Journal of Production Economics,2002,78, pp.45-55.
[4]J.Hallikas, I.Karvonen, U.Pulkkinen, and V.Virolainen, Risk Management Process in Supplier Networks, International Journal of Production Economics,2004,90, pp.47-58.
[5]B.E.Flores, and D.C.Why bark, Multi Criteria ABC analysis, International Journal of Operations and Production Management,1986,6(3),38-46.
[6]Ferguson, Renee Boucher. Modules cut supply chain risk, e Week,2004,21(3):2
[7]Roshan R.Pai, Venkata. Kallepalli, Reggie J. Caudill, ect. Meng Chu Zhou.Methods Toward Supply Chain Risk Analysis. IEEE,2003:4560-4565
[8]Michael Bradford. Keeping risks from breaking organizations' supply chains:Complex exposure Suppliers:Keeping chain intact Suppliers:Fewer vendors are better. Business Insurance, Aug 4,2003, Vol.37, Iss.31:9
[9]Kouvelis,P., Rosenblatt, M..A mathematical programming model for global supply chain management:Conceptual approach and managerial insights. In:Geunes, et al. (Eds.)Supply Chain Management:Models, Applications, and Research Directions[M]. Kluwer Publisher, Dordrecht.,2000
[10]Hendricks K B, Singhal V R.The effect of supply chain glitches on share holder wealth. Journal of Operation Management,2003,21(5):501-523
[11]Huchzermeier, A., Cohen, M., Valuing operational Hexibility under exchangerate risk. Operations Research,1996,44:100-113
[12]LILLY J D. Out sourcing the human resource functions:environmental and organizational characteristics that affect hr performance [J]. Journal of Business Stragies,2005,22 (1):55-73
[13]梁海鹏,郭伟,马可.供应链管理中的风险评价研究[J].生产力研究,2007,13(12)：43-45.
[14]马丽,张光明.供应链风险预警管理研究[J].价值工程,2008,22(2)：21-23.
[15]白世贞,季李娜.基于风险价值评估模型的供应链道德风险分析[J].供应链管理,2008,7(1)：15-16。
[16]张仕军,孟志青,基于模糊评判法的供应链风险研究[J].北方经济,2007,13(9)：23-25.
[17]申风平,范建磊.沃尔玛供应链管理对供应链风险防范的启示[J].商业经济,2007,21(8)：54-57.
[18]刘露,施先亮.跨国供应链中存在的风险及其控制[J].沿海企业与科技,2005,32(8)：45-47.
[19]杨琦龙.供应链危机预警体系研究[D].南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文,2007年.
[20]董秋云.供应链管理实施的风险问题[J].企业活力,2004,21(3)：32-35.
[21]雷光龙,冯晓研.企业供应链风险管理[J].中国投资,2004,6(9)：19-22.
[22]张默,王效俐,王琛.供应链合作风险的优化模型研究[J].经济论坛,2009,16(9)：16-19.
[23](美)泰勒.供应链致胜：供应链竞争决定成败[M].中国市场出版社,2006年.
[24]王海青.基于供应链的石油工程企业库存成本管理研究[D].中国石油大学硕士学位论文,2008年.
[25]赵阳.供应链合作风险与防范[J].税务与经济,2008,14(2)：17-21.
[26]纪军友.供应链风险分析[J].宝成科技,2005,9(3)：23-25.
[27]解砚,刘凯.供应链库存管理中的风险问题研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2003,21(5)：32-33.
[28]朱怀意,朱道立,胡峰.基于不确定性的供应链风险因素分析[J].软科学,2006,2(3)：21-25.
[29]裴军.考虑风险控制的供应链优化设计方法与应用研究[D].湖南大学博士学位论 文,2008.
[30]李志,杨涛,杨文.供应链风险分析及决策模型[J].物流科技,2006,11(6)：32-33.
[31]杨红芬,吕安洪,李琪.供应链管理中的信息风险及对策分析[J].商业经济与管理,2002,17(2)：32-35.
[32]韩景丰,丁建时.基于系统分析的供应链风险识别与控制[J].铁道运输与经济,2006,25(10)：23-26.
[33]刘永胜,宋玉卿,王金明.供应链风险问题研究述评[J].商业时代,2006,21(25)：55-59.
[34]马士华,林勇,陈志祥.供应链管理[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2005年.
[35]马丽,张光明.供应链风险预警管理研究[J].价值工程,2008,32(2)：22-24.
[36]张翠华,黄小原.供应链中的道德风险问题[J].东北大学学报,2002,32(9)：39-42.
[37]王蕊.供应链企业间知识共享的风险分析及风险控制研究[D].重庆大学硕士学位论文,2008年.
[38]刘永胜,白晓娟.供应链风险预警指标体系研究[J].物流技术,2006,12(10)：15-16.
[39]陈皓甲.供应链风险分析与预警体系[J].科技情报开发与经济,2008,21(1)：42-45.
[40]闫尚菲.基于模糊综合评价法的人力资源管理外包风险研究[D].天津大学硕士学位论文,2008年.
[41]张存禄,黄培清.供应链风险管理[M].北京：清华大学出版社，2007年.
[42]李志方,程国平.基于灰色系统的供应链风险模糊综合评价研究[J].中国管理信息化,2008,32(24)：37-39.
[43]马立松.EPC项目安全模糊综合评价[D].天津大学硕士学位论文,2008年.
[44]李志方,程国平.基于灰色系统的供应链风险模糊综合评价研究[J].中国管理信息化,2008,18(24)：31-33..
[45]董秋云.供应链管理实施的风险问题[J].管理理论,2004,10(3)：33-34.
[2]L.M.Hunter,C.J.Kasouf, K.G. Celuch, and K.A. Curry, A Classification of Business-to-business Buying Decisions:Risk Importance and Probability as a Framework for E-business Benefit, Industrial Marketing Management,2004,33, pp. 145-154.
[3]J.Hallikas, V. Virolainen, and M.Tuominen, Risk Analysis and Assessment in Network Environment, International Journal of Production Economics,2002,78, pp.45-55.
[4]J.Hallikas, I.Karvonen, U.Pulkkinen, and V.Virolainen, Risk Management Process in Supplier Networks, International Journal of Production Economics,2004,90, pp.47-58.
[5]B.E.Flores, and D.C.Why bark, Multi Criteria ABC analysis, International Journal of Operations and Production Management,1986,6(3),38-46.
[6]Ferguson, Renee Boucher. Modules cut supply chain risk, e Week,2004,21(3):2
[7]Roshan R.Pai, Venkata. Kallepalli, Reggie J. Caudill, ect. Meng Chu Zhou.Methods Toward Supply Chain Risk Analysis. IEEE,2003:4560-4565
[8]Michael Bradford. Keeping risks from breaking organizations' supply chains:Complex exposure Suppliers:Keeping chain intact Suppliers:Fewer vendors are better. Business Insurance, Aug 4,2003, Vol.37, Iss.31:9
[9]Kouvelis,P., Rosenblatt, M..A mathematical programming model for global supply chain management:Conceptual approach and managerial insights. In:Geunes, et al. (Eds.)Supply Chain Management:Models, Applications, and Research Directions[M]. Kluwer Publisher, Dordrecht.,2000
[10]Hendricks K B, Singhal V R.The effect of supply chain glitches on share holder wealth. Journal of Operation Management,2003,21(5):501-523
[11]Huchzermeier, A., Cohen, M., Valuing operational Hexibility under exchangerate risk. Operations Research,1996,44:100-113
[12]LILLY J D. Out sourcing the human resource functions:environmental and organizational characteristics that affect hr performance [J]. Journal of Business Stragies,2005,22 (1):55-73
[13]梁海鹏,郭伟,马可.供应链管理中的风险评价研究[J].生产力研究,2007,13(12)：43-45.
[14]马丽,张光明.供应链风险预警管理研究[J].价值工程,2008,22(2)：21-23.
[15]白世贞,季李娜.基于风险价值评估模型的供应链道德风险分析[J].供应链管理,2008,7(1)：15-16。
[16]张仕军,孟志青,基于模糊评判法的供应链风险研究[J].北方经济,2007,13(9)：23-25.
[17]申风平,范建磊.沃尔玛供应链管理对供应链风险防范的启示[J].商业经济,2007,21(8)：54-57.
[18]刘露,施先亮.跨国供应链中存在的风险及其控制[J].沿海企业与科技,2005,32(8)：45-47.
[19]杨琦龙.供应链危机预警体系研究[D].南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文,2007年.
[20]董秋云.供应链管理实施的风险问题[J].企业活力,2004,21(3)：32-35.
[21]雷光龙,冯晓研.企业供应链风险管理[J].中国投资,2004,6(9)：19-22.
[22]张默,王效俐,王琛.供应链合作风险的优化模型研究[J].经济论坛,2009,16(9)：16-19.
[23](美)泰勒.供应链致胜：供应链竞争决定成败[M].中国市场出版社,2006年.
[24]王海青.基于供应链的石油工程企业库存成本管理研究[D].中国石油大学硕士学位论文,2008年.
[25]赵阳.供应链合作风险与防范[J].税务与经济,2008,14(2)：17-21.
[26]纪军友.供应链风险分析[J].宝成科技,2005,9(3)：23-25.
[27]解砚,刘凯.供应链库存管理中的风险问题研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2003,21(5)：32-33.
[28]朱怀意,朱道立,胡峰.基于不确定性的供应链风险因素分析[J].软科学,2006,2(3)：21-25.
[29]裴军.考虑风险控制的供应链优化设计方法与应用研究[D].湖南大学博士学位论 文,2008.
[30]李志,杨涛,杨文.供应链风险分析及决策模型[J].物流科技,2006,11(6)：32-33.
[31]杨红芬,吕安洪,李琪.供应链管理中的信息风险及对策分析[J].商业经济与管理,2002,17(2)：32-35.
[32]韩景丰,丁建时.基于系统分析的供应链风险识别与控制[J].铁道运输与经济,2006,25(10)：23-26.
[33]刘永胜,宋玉卿,王金明.供应链风险问题研究述评[J].商业时代,2006,21(25)：55-59.
[34]马士华,林勇,陈志祥.供应链管理[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2005年.
[35]马丽,张光明.供应链风险预警管理研究[J].价值工程,2008,32(2)：22-24.
[36]张翠华,黄小原.供应链中的道德风险问题[J].东北大学学报,2002,32(9)：39-42.
[37]王蕊.供应链企业间知识共享的风险分析及风险控制研究[D].重庆大学硕士学位论文,2008年.
[38]刘永胜,白晓娟.供应链风险预警指标体系研究[J].物流技术,2006,12(10)：15-16.
[39]陈皓甲.供应链风险分析与预警体系[J].科技情报开发与经济,2008,21(1)：42-45.
[40]闫尚菲.基于模糊综合评价法的人力资源管理外包风险研究[D].天津大学硕士学位论文,2008年.
[41]张存禄,黄培清.供应链风险管理[M].北京：清华大学出版社，2007年.
[42]李志方,程国平.基于灰色系统的供应链风险模糊综合评价研究[J].中国管理信息化,2008,32(24)：37-39.
[43]马立松.EPC项目安全模糊综合评价[D].天津大学硕士学位论文,2008年.
[44]李志方,程国平.基于灰色系统的供应链风险模糊综合评价研究[J].中国管理信息化,2008,18(24)：31-33..
[45]董秋云.供应链管理实施的风险问题[J].管理理论,2004,10(3)：33-34.