人民币国际化路径研究
摘要
自1997年东亚金融危机以来,中国政府日益清晰地意识到一国货币在国际储备货币和国际支付货币中的影响力对一国经济的国际地位至关重要。为了抗击金融风险,提高人民币的国际影响力,中国政府应努力加强同东亚各国间的金融和经济合作。
同时,以2007年美国次贷危机为导火索的全球金融危机的爆发表明,低水平的区域经济和金融合作无法使东亚地区摆脱主导货币缺失的矛盾,为了减少汇率的持续波动给国民经济带来的巨大负面影响,中国应从长远着手制定较为具体的人民币国际化的实现路径,逐渐摆脱对以美元为代表的外部主导货币的严重依赖,这是一项具有重大现实意义的挑战性工作。
自国际货币体系形成以来,先后出现了多种具有国际影响力的货币,产生了三种货币国际化的成功模式,分别是英镑模式、美元模式和欧元模式。在总结已有货币国际化成功经验和分析人民币国际化现状与影响因素的基础上,本文认为人民币国际化应遵循首先实现人民币周边化,由周边化推动人民币区域化,再由区域化实现人民币国际化的发展思路。
目前可预见的人民币国际化路径大体可分为4个具体实施步骤。建立币值稳定的货币制度是人民币国际化的制度保障;人民币离岸市场是在当前情况下增强人民币区域影响力的一种有效途径;加强与周边区域的自由贸易区建设,能够培育人民币国际化的地域经济基础;而积极推动东亚区域货币合作是人民币国际化的必由之路。
Since the East Asian financial crisis in 1997, currencies of the countries concerned fluctuated greatly, which brought severe shock to national economy. One main reason for the crisis is that there are no dominant currencies in this area. The Chinese government has fully realized that the force of a currency in international reserve and payment is extremely important to a country's international status. In order to resist financial risks and improve RMB's international influence, Chinese government has made great efforts to strengthen the financial and economic cooperation with East Asian countries.
However, in the face of the global financial crisis whose fuse is the United States sub-loan crisis in 2007, the low-level regional economic and financial cooperation can not resolve the fundamental problem: the lack of dominant currency. In order to reduce the enormous negative impact on national economy arising out of the volatile exchange rates, and avoid being compelled to reserve U.S. dollars in large quantities as well as buy national debt of the United States to maintain the stability of our foreign exchange reserve, China should formulate a long-term and more specific path to RMB internationalization and gradually move away from excessive dependence on the external dominant currency that is represented by U.S. dollar. This is a challenging work of great practical significance. Based on deep research on successful experience of other currencies internationalization as well as China's unique economic and financial development, this paper will aim at the path of RMB internationalization in order to explore one that is relatively more suitable for RMB.
Since the formation of international monetary system in the late 19th century, several currencies with international influence have appeared in succession and a total of three currencies became successful models of internationalization, namely model of Sterling, Dollar and Euro. These are important guide to the research of RMB internationalization path.
The United Kingdom is the founder of international monetary system. The process of Sterling internationalization is to bring several independent currencies into an international monetary system with Sterling as the core. The realization of Sterling internationalization marked the foundation of global production and trading system. Therefore, the Sterling model can be considered as the trade hegemony form of currency internationalization.
Dollar internationalization, which was established after the international monetary and financial system became mature, is an advanced form based on Sterling. The most significant point of Dollar internationalization compared with Sterling is that the financial market system founded by the United States is much more developed. Moreover, as the core of highly developed international financial market, the United States has held the power to formulate international financial and capital market rules. It is obvious that the Dollar model has been upgraded from trade hegemony to the form of financial hegemony.
The Euro model is based on the theory of OCA. Through collective coordination mechanism, European countries achieved monetary union and gradually realized currency internationalization, breaking the original model that depended on a single currency to achieve internationalization slowly. Although Euro hasn’t gone beyond Dollar yet and its future remains unclear, EU has a greater voice in international financial and monetary field, along with more firm faith of cooperation than before. The Euro model opened up a third way for those countries and areas that have trouble with how to choose exchange rate mechanism.
As far as the internationalization of RMB, RMB has definite influence in the surrounding region but is much far away from internationalization. As a medium of international exchange, RMB has certain influence in areas such as border trade and tourism, but the scope of outside circulation remains very limited. As the unit of international account, RMB has become the main settlement currency in Sino-Vietnamese and Sino-Burmese border trade. At the same time, RMB has the potential to become means of international storage, but obviously it is a very limited role now.
Currently, the comparative advantages of RMB internationalization lie in the sustained and rapid development of national economy, adequate foreign exchange reserves and the dominant position of trade in East Asia. At the same time, there are still a number of constrains. After general analysis of all kinds of factors, the author believes that the main advantage of RMB internationalization is the accumulation of foreign trade, and the constraint relates to China's economic and financial foundation that only can be achieved a breakthrough after long-term efforts. So RMB internationalization must be a long and arduous process. China should transfer her existing strengths to the real power of economy and finance, and undoubtedly this is the only way to RMB internationalization.
Based on the summary of three successful models, as well as the actuality and influencing factors of RMB internationalization, this paper suggests that the principles to be kept in the path of RMB internationalization are as follows:
Firstly, to progress step by step. It is necessary to formulate a long-term development path of RMB internationalization combined with our own characteristic. A progressive route should be carried out from low level to a high one and from surrounding to region.After founding steady monetary system and developed financial market as well as upgrading our core competitive superiority, we will endeavor to realize the core stage of RMB internationalization.
Secondly, the principle of cooperation. From the view of Sterling and Dollar, China does not have to rely on her own power to realize the internationalization of RMB. In order to strengthen the international influence of domestic currency, we can do nothing but to reinforce the cooperation with other countries and be down the road of regionalization. The Euro model is only successful one that achieve currency internationalization by regionalization. The experience of Euro tells us that in view of the huge differences in the economic development and little culture identity between China and her neighbouring countries, it will be extremely difficult to conduct in-depth monetary cooperation and transfer part of the monetary sovereignty to each other. China has to make much more efforts to achieve this objective.
Thirdly, the principle of coordination. The Euro model indicates that the foundation of European Economic and Monetary Union resulted from currency cooperation and a unified market. To realize the internationalization of RMB by regional monetary cooperation, we must strengthen economic and financial cooperation with surrounding economies and make merchandise, personnel, labor and capital flow freely.
Fourthly, the principle of paying equal attention to strength and opportunities. It is really necessary to hold the great historical opportunity in the process of RMB internationalization. When the chance to exceed dominant currency does not come yet, what we can do is to wait patiently and focus on enhancing our foreign trade strength. Once the chance appears, we must grasp it in time and advance the RMB internationalization a major step forward.
Based on the above principles, this paper formulated 4 concrete steps of RMB internationalization following the thought of from extending to neighboring countries to regionalization, and than to internationalization.
Firstly, setting up stable coinage and a sound financial market system. After summing up the experience of currencies internationalization, the author believes that the establishment of monetary system with stable valuta will provide sufficient confidence to RMB internationalization. Based on the progress made in the reform of RMB exchange rate system and the principle of State Standard, China should improve the pricing mechanism of RMB exchange rate further as well as keep fluctuations of RMB exchange rate controllable and gradual. The stability of domestic price level and full employment should be considered as the primary objective of our monetary polic. Under the premise of meeting domestic objectives, the exchange rate of RMB should be keep stable as far as we can, which can enhance foreign countries’confidence in RMB. Well-developed financial market is the necessary precondition of RMB internationalization. In view of the experience of the U. K. and the U. S.,based on effective supervision of financial system, the innovation should be encouraged to make funds and resources flow and be used fully.
Secindly, setting up off-shore market of RMB and extanding its regional force. Because China's financial markets can not be perfect within a short time, setting up off-shore market of RMB is beneficial to promote the standardization of RMB circulation and enhance its regional influence. The primary objective of RMB offshore market is to promote RMB cross-border settlement trade and enhance its function of overseas investment and storage. Because of the undevelopment of China's domestic financial markets and the lack of financial talents along with the capability of innovation and responding to financial risks, risk control and prevention should be considered first during the foundation of RMB offshore market. In particular, it is important to avoid the impact of financial risks from off-shore market on domestic markets. Both HongKong and Shanghai have fovorable financial market environment. While considering the unique nature of RMB offshore market and other factors, this paper thinks of HongKong as the ideal city to found RMB offshore market. At the same time, the financial cooperation between HongKong and Shanghai should be strengthened in order to set up effective communication between offshore and domestic market.
Thirdly, building the free trade area with surrounding regions and fostering regional economic base for RMB internationalization.Based on the experience of currencies internationalization,this paper believes that it is extremely significant for RMB internationalization to improve the free-trade area with neighbouring countries and enlarge it gradually. Especially in the preparatory phase of RMB internationalization, the regional economy base is an important guarantee for improving the influence of RMB. Considering the situation of East Asia, the cooperation between China and Japanese should be intensified. Making use of Japan's production and technical advantages along with China's resource advantages and broad market, it is feasible to establish the Pan-East Asian free-trade network of which core is China and Japan. The merchandise trade, services along with capital will move freely and entirely in East Asia.
Fourthly, strengthening the exchange rate cooperation with other East Asian countries, which is the only way for the internationalization of RMB. RMB regionalization is a very important part of internationalization. Though the stable RMB system, RMB offshore market and free-trade area will enhance influence of RMB within the scope of neighbourhood even larger, it is hard to realize RMB internationalization after these steps. Only when RMB regionalization and regional monetary cooperation in East Asia come true, the obstacles of RMB internationalization will be reduced and China will win the support and help from other East Asian countries. This shows that the East Asian monetary cooperation is the only way for the internationalization of RMB and an important measure to make RMB from regionalization to internationalization. Because the OCA indexes between East Asian countries are obviously too big, and there is not broad political trust among these countries, sufficient trust and experience should be on the basis of fianacial and exchange rate cooperation, which is the necessary conditions for comprehensive monetary cooperation.
同时,以2007年美国次贷危机为导火索的全球金融危机的爆发表明,低水平的区域经济和金融合作无法使东亚地区摆脱主导货币缺失的矛盾,为了减少汇率的持续波动给国民经济带来的巨大负面影响,中国应从长远着手制定较为具体的人民币国际化的实现路径,逐渐摆脱对以美元为代表的外部主导货币的严重依赖,这是一项具有重大现实意义的挑战性工作。
自国际货币体系形成以来,先后出现了多种具有国际影响力的货币,产生了三种货币国际化的成功模式,分别是英镑模式、美元模式和欧元模式。在总结已有货币国际化成功经验和分析人民币国际化现状与影响因素的基础上,本文认为人民币国际化应遵循首先实现人民币周边化,由周边化推动人民币区域化,再由区域化实现人民币国际化的发展思路。
目前可预见的人民币国际化路径大体可分为4个具体实施步骤。建立币值稳定的货币制度是人民币国际化的制度保障;人民币离岸市场是在当前情况下增强人民币区域影响力的一种有效途径;加强与周边区域的自由贸易区建设,能够培育人民币国际化的地域经济基础;而积极推动东亚区域货币合作是人民币国际化的必由之路。
Since the East Asian financial crisis in 1997, currencies of the countries concerned fluctuated greatly, which brought severe shock to national economy. One main reason for the crisis is that there are no dominant currencies in this area. The Chinese government has fully realized that the force of a currency in international reserve and payment is extremely important to a country's international status. In order to resist financial risks and improve RMB's international influence, Chinese government has made great efforts to strengthen the financial and economic cooperation with East Asian countries.
However, in the face of the global financial crisis whose fuse is the United States sub-loan crisis in 2007, the low-level regional economic and financial cooperation can not resolve the fundamental problem: the lack of dominant currency. In order to reduce the enormous negative impact on national economy arising out of the volatile exchange rates, and avoid being compelled to reserve U.S. dollars in large quantities as well as buy national debt of the United States to maintain the stability of our foreign exchange reserve, China should formulate a long-term and more specific path to RMB internationalization and gradually move away from excessive dependence on the external dominant currency that is represented by U.S. dollar. This is a challenging work of great practical significance. Based on deep research on successful experience of other currencies internationalization as well as China's unique economic and financial development, this paper will aim at the path of RMB internationalization in order to explore one that is relatively more suitable for RMB.
Since the formation of international monetary system in the late 19th century, several currencies with international influence have appeared in succession and a total of three currencies became successful models of internationalization, namely model of Sterling, Dollar and Euro. These are important guide to the research of RMB internationalization path.
The United Kingdom is the founder of international monetary system. The process of Sterling internationalization is to bring several independent currencies into an international monetary system with Sterling as the core. The realization of Sterling internationalization marked the foundation of global production and trading system. Therefore, the Sterling model can be considered as the trade hegemony form of currency internationalization.
Dollar internationalization, which was established after the international monetary and financial system became mature, is an advanced form based on Sterling. The most significant point of Dollar internationalization compared with Sterling is that the financial market system founded by the United States is much more developed. Moreover, as the core of highly developed international financial market, the United States has held the power to formulate international financial and capital market rules. It is obvious that the Dollar model has been upgraded from trade hegemony to the form of financial hegemony.
The Euro model is based on the theory of OCA. Through collective coordination mechanism, European countries achieved monetary union and gradually realized currency internationalization, breaking the original model that depended on a single currency to achieve internationalization slowly. Although Euro hasn’t gone beyond Dollar yet and its future remains unclear, EU has a greater voice in international financial and monetary field, along with more firm faith of cooperation than before. The Euro model opened up a third way for those countries and areas that have trouble with how to choose exchange rate mechanism.
As far as the internationalization of RMB, RMB has definite influence in the surrounding region but is much far away from internationalization. As a medium of international exchange, RMB has certain influence in areas such as border trade and tourism, but the scope of outside circulation remains very limited. As the unit of international account, RMB has become the main settlement currency in Sino-Vietnamese and Sino-Burmese border trade. At the same time, RMB has the potential to become means of international storage, but obviously it is a very limited role now.
Currently, the comparative advantages of RMB internationalization lie in the sustained and rapid development of national economy, adequate foreign exchange reserves and the dominant position of trade in East Asia. At the same time, there are still a number of constrains. After general analysis of all kinds of factors, the author believes that the main advantage of RMB internationalization is the accumulation of foreign trade, and the constraint relates to China's economic and financial foundation that only can be achieved a breakthrough after long-term efforts. So RMB internationalization must be a long and arduous process. China should transfer her existing strengths to the real power of economy and finance, and undoubtedly this is the only way to RMB internationalization.
Based on the summary of three successful models, as well as the actuality and influencing factors of RMB internationalization, this paper suggests that the principles to be kept in the path of RMB internationalization are as follows:
Firstly, to progress step by step. It is necessary to formulate a long-term development path of RMB internationalization combined with our own characteristic. A progressive route should be carried out from low level to a high one and from surrounding to region.After founding steady monetary system and developed financial market as well as upgrading our core competitive superiority, we will endeavor to realize the core stage of RMB internationalization.
Secondly, the principle of cooperation. From the view of Sterling and Dollar, China does not have to rely on her own power to realize the internationalization of RMB. In order to strengthen the international influence of domestic currency, we can do nothing but to reinforce the cooperation with other countries and be down the road of regionalization. The Euro model is only successful one that achieve currency internationalization by regionalization. The experience of Euro tells us that in view of the huge differences in the economic development and little culture identity between China and her neighbouring countries, it will be extremely difficult to conduct in-depth monetary cooperation and transfer part of the monetary sovereignty to each other. China has to make much more efforts to achieve this objective.
Thirdly, the principle of coordination. The Euro model indicates that the foundation of European Economic and Monetary Union resulted from currency cooperation and a unified market. To realize the internationalization of RMB by regional monetary cooperation, we must strengthen economic and financial cooperation with surrounding economies and make merchandise, personnel, labor and capital flow freely.
Fourthly, the principle of paying equal attention to strength and opportunities. It is really necessary to hold the great historical opportunity in the process of RMB internationalization. When the chance to exceed dominant currency does not come yet, what we can do is to wait patiently and focus on enhancing our foreign trade strength. Once the chance appears, we must grasp it in time and advance the RMB internationalization a major step forward.
Based on the above principles, this paper formulated 4 concrete steps of RMB internationalization following the thought of from extending to neighboring countries to regionalization, and than to internationalization.
Firstly, setting up stable coinage and a sound financial market system. After summing up the experience of currencies internationalization, the author believes that the establishment of monetary system with stable valuta will provide sufficient confidence to RMB internationalization. Based on the progress made in the reform of RMB exchange rate system and the principle of State Standard, China should improve the pricing mechanism of RMB exchange rate further as well as keep fluctuations of RMB exchange rate controllable and gradual. The stability of domestic price level and full employment should be considered as the primary objective of our monetary polic. Under the premise of meeting domestic objectives, the exchange rate of RMB should be keep stable as far as we can, which can enhance foreign countries’confidence in RMB. Well-developed financial market is the necessary precondition of RMB internationalization. In view of the experience of the U. K. and the U. S.,based on effective supervision of financial system, the innovation should be encouraged to make funds and resources flow and be used fully.
Secindly, setting up off-shore market of RMB and extanding its regional force. Because China's financial markets can not be perfect within a short time, setting up off-shore market of RMB is beneficial to promote the standardization of RMB circulation and enhance its regional influence. The primary objective of RMB offshore market is to promote RMB cross-border settlement trade and enhance its function of overseas investment and storage. Because of the undevelopment of China's domestic financial markets and the lack of financial talents along with the capability of innovation and responding to financial risks, risk control and prevention should be considered first during the foundation of RMB offshore market. In particular, it is important to avoid the impact of financial risks from off-shore market on domestic markets. Both HongKong and Shanghai have fovorable financial market environment. While considering the unique nature of RMB offshore market and other factors, this paper thinks of HongKong as the ideal city to found RMB offshore market. At the same time, the financial cooperation between HongKong and Shanghai should be strengthened in order to set up effective communication between offshore and domestic market.
Thirdly, building the free trade area with surrounding regions and fostering regional economic base for RMB internationalization.Based on the experience of currencies internationalization,this paper believes that it is extremely significant for RMB internationalization to improve the free-trade area with neighbouring countries and enlarge it gradually. Especially in the preparatory phase of RMB internationalization, the regional economy base is an important guarantee for improving the influence of RMB. Considering the situation of East Asia, the cooperation between China and Japanese should be intensified. Making use of Japan's production and technical advantages along with China's resource advantages and broad market, it is feasible to establish the Pan-East Asian free-trade network of which core is China and Japan. The merchandise trade, services along with capital will move freely and entirely in East Asia.
Fourthly, strengthening the exchange rate cooperation with other East Asian countries, which is the only way for the internationalization of RMB. RMB regionalization is a very important part of internationalization. Though the stable RMB system, RMB offshore market and free-trade area will enhance influence of RMB within the scope of neighbourhood even larger, it is hard to realize RMB internationalization after these steps. Only when RMB regionalization and regional monetary cooperation in East Asia come true, the obstacles of RMB internationalization will be reduced and China will win the support and help from other East Asian countries. This shows that the East Asian monetary cooperation is the only way for the internationalization of RMB and an important measure to make RMB from regionalization to internationalization. Because the OCA indexes between East Asian countries are obviously too big, and there is not broad political trust among these countries, sufficient trust and experience should be on the basis of fianacial and exchange rate cooperation, which is the necessary conditions for comprehensive monetary cooperation.
引文
①李晓,丁一兵.亚洲的超越——构建东亚区域货币体系与“人民币亚洲化”[M].北京:当代中国出版社,2006:296-297.
②姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):6.
③姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):6.
①姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):6.
①姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):7.
②姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):7.
①姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):7.
②姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):7.
③姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):7.
①姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):8.
②姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):8.
③姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):8.
④姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):8.
⑤姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):8.
①姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):8.
②参考徐新华.人民币国际化研究:理论与实证[D].上海:复旦大学,2006:8-11.
③胡智,文启湘.人民币国际化模式探讨[J].北经贸大学学报,2002(5):42-46.
④刘爱文.人民币的国际化之路[J].商业研究,2005(18):150-153.
⑤刘爱文.人民币的国际化之路[J].商业研究,2005(18):150-153.
①郑木清.论人民币国际化的经济效应[J].国际金融研究,1995(7):34-35.
②李晓,李俊久,丁一兵.论人民币的亚洲化[J].世界经济,2004(2):21-34.
③姜波克.人民币自由兑换和资本管制[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,1999.
①徐新华.人民币国际化研究:理论与实证[D].上海:复旦大学,2006:8-11.
②姜波克.人民币自由兑换和资本管制[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,1999.
③钟伟.略论人民币的国际化进程[J].世界经济,2002(3):56-59.
①李晓,李俊久,丁一兵.论人民币的亚洲化[J].世界经济,2004(2):21-34.
②陈岩岩,唐爱朋,孙健.人民币国际化过程中货币整合的可行性分析[J].西南金融,2005(7):7-9.
③李婧.中国资本账户自由化与汇率制度选择[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2006.
①乔恩.货币史[M].李广乾,译.北京:商务印书馆,2002:112.
②波斯坦,科尔曼.剑桥欧洲经济史-第八卷[M].王春法,译.北京:经济科学出版社,2004:181.
①波斯坦,科尔曼.剑桥欧洲经济史-第八卷[M].王春法,译.北京:经济科学出版社,2004:102.
①哈耶克.货币的非国家化[M].姚中秋,译.北京:新星出版社,2007:36.
①恩格尔曼,高尔曼.剑桥美国经济史(第二卷)[M].王钰,李淑清,译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2008:473.
①张耿铭.关税与贸易总协定的缘起与发展[J].研究生法学,1996(4):59-62.
②[美]罗伯特·特里芬著,陈尚霖、雷达译:《黄金与美元危机——自由兑换的未来》,商务印书馆,1997。
①伊特韦尔,米尔盖特,纽曼.新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典[M].陈岱孙,译.北京:经济科学出版社,1996:792.
①Hansen J D,Nielson U M.An economic analysis of the European Union[M].London:McGraw-Hill,1997:138-139.
①熊厚.欧盟货币政策协调研究[D].四川:四川大学,2007.
②丁一兵,李晓.关于东亚区域货币合作的研究:文献综述[J].当代亚太,2004(6):16-22.
③克鲁格曼,奥伯斯费尔德.国际经济学理论与政策(第四版)[M].海闻,译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,1998.
①切克奇尼. 1992年欧洲的挑战——统一大市场带来的利益[M].张蕴岭,译.北京:社会科学文献出版社,1989.
①宋坚.德国经济与市场[M].北京:中国商务出版社,2003.
①参考吴文旭.论欧洲货币联盟及欧元[M].四川:西南财经大学出版社,2002:6-7.
①Artis M J,Zhang W.Further Evidence on the International Business Cycle and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle? [J].In Oxford Economic Paper,1999:51.
①Bayoumi T,Eichengreen B.Ever Closer to Heaven? An Optimum-currency-area Index for European Countries[J].European Economic Review,1997,Vol.41.
①徐奇渊.人民币国际化进程中的汇率变化研究[D].吉林:东北师范大学,2008.
②郑晓舟.人民币:从“不受欢迎”到“全流通”[N].上海证券报,2007-6-29(12).
③钟伟.人民币在周边国家流通的现状、问题及对策[J].管理世界,2008(1):165-166.
①卢皓.中缅、中老边境人民币流通状况调查与思考[J].时代金融,2007(9):119-120.
②关键.人民币与卢布现钞在中俄边境地区流通状况比较[J].黑龙江金融,2006(12):47-48.
①方国志.人民币在东盟流通的现状及策略[J].南方金融,2008(5):66-67.
②卢皓.中缅、中老边境人民币流通状况调查与思考[J].时代金融,2007(9):119-120.
③王雅范,管涛,温建东.走向人民币可兑换:中国渐进主义的实践[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2002.
④李婧,管涛,何帆.人民币跨境流通的现状及对中国经济的影响[J].管理世界,2004(9):45-52.
⑤钟伟.人民币在周边国家流通的现状、问题及对策[J].管理世界,2008(1):165-166.
⑥马荣华,饶晓辉.人民币的境外需求估计[J].国际金融研究,2007(2):50-59.
⑦董继华.境外人民币流通规模估计——基于季度数据的协整分析[J].当代经济科学,2008(1):28-36.
①徐明朝,高中良.人民币离岸中心发展与监管研究[J].金融理论与实践,2008(2):36-42.
①郑晓舟.人民币:从“不受欢迎”到“全流通”[N].上海证券报,2007-6-29(12).
②钟伟.人民币在周边国家流通的现状、问题及对策[J].管理世界,2008(1):165-166.
①李军睿.我国石油天然气行业景气分析[D].长春:吉林大学,2003:15-17.
①万志宏.东亚货币合作的经济基础研究——最优货币区理论视角[D].天津:南开大学,2003.
①吴文旭.论欧洲货币联盟及欧元[M].四川:西南财经大学出版社,2002.
[1]陈虹.东亚区域合作:日本的出发点与诉求及对中国的借鉴意义[J].亚非纵横,2007(1):30-34.
[2]陈明.美国《金本位法》确立的历史背景透析[J].吉首大学学报,2003(12):54-58.
[3]陈岩岩,唐爱朋,孙健.人民币国际化过程中货币整合的可行性分析[J].西南金融,2005(7):7-9.
[4]曾钢.金融国际化研究[D].四川:西南财经大学,2000.
[5]丁一兵.汇率制度选择[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2005.
[6]丁一兵,李晓.关于东亚区域货币合作的研究:文献综述[J].当代亚太,2004(6):16-22.
[7]董继华.境外人民币流通规模估计——基于季度数据的协整分析[J].当代经济科学,2008(1):28-36.
[8]方国志.人民币在东盟流通的现状及策略[J].南方金融,2008(5):66-67.
[9]付竞卉.关于人民币国际化问题的国内研究综述[J].现代商业,2007(8):134-135.
[10]高海红.最优货币区:对东亚国家的经验研究[J].世界经济,2007(6):3-12.
[11]关键.人民币与卢布现钞在中俄边境地区流通状况比较[J].黑龙江金融,2006(12):47-48.
[12]何国华.西方货币国际化理论综述[J].经济评论,2007(4):156-160.
[13]胡智,文启湘.人民币国际化模式探讨[J].北经贸大学学报,2002(5):42-46.
[14]姜波克.人民币自由兑换和资本管制[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,1999.
[15]姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):6-8.
[16]姜波克,张青龙.国际货币的两难及人民币国际化的思考[J].学习与探索,2005(4):17-24.
[17]姜波克,罗得志.最优货币区理论综述兼述欧元、亚元问题[J].世界经济文汇,2002(1):73-80.
[18]李婧.中国资本账户自由化与汇率制度选择[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2006.
[19]李婧,管涛,何帆.人民币跨境流通的现状及对中国经济的影响[J].管理世界,2004(9):45-52.
[20]李向阳.区域经济合作中的小国战略[J].当代亚太,2008(3):36-49.
[21]李晓,戴金平.21世纪初期东亚货币合作与人民币国际化[M].吉林:吉林大学出版社,2006.
[22]李晓.“日元国际化”的困境及其战略调整[J].世界经济,2005(6):3-18.
[23]李晓,丁一兵.论东亚货币合作的具体措施[J].世界经济,2002(11):3-10.
[24]李晓,丁一兵.新世纪的东亚区域货币合作:中国的地位与作用[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2004(2):79-87.
[25]李晓,丁一兵.现阶段的东亚金融合作:面临的挑战及政策建议[J].国际经济评论,2005(3):57-61.
[26]李晓,丁一兵.亚洲的超越——构建东亚区域货币体系与“人民币亚洲化”[M].北京:当代中国出版社,2006.
[27]李晓,丁一兵.经济冲击对称性与区域经济合作:东亚与其他区域的比较研究[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2006(4):46-58.
[28]李晓,丁一兵.欧洲货币一体化的推动力与大国关系——从国际政治经济学角度的考察[J].学习与探索,2007(5):146-151.
[29]李晓,丁一兵.全球金融动荡环境下的东亚金融合作:政策选择及建议[J].国际经济评论,2008(6):45-49.
[30]李晓,丁一兵.人民币汇率变动趋势及其对区域货币合作的影响[J].国际金融研究,2009(3):8-15.
[31]李晓,李俊久,丁一兵.论人民币的亚洲化[J].世界经济,2004(2):21-34.
[32]李众敏.东亚一体化框架下的经济合作:在不平衡中寻求“共生”[J].世界经济与政治,2008(10):29-31.
[33]刘爱文.人民币的国际化之路[J].商业研究,2005(18):150-153.
[34]刘力臻.论国际区域货币合作[J].税务与经济,2003(3):1-5.
[35]刘力臻,焦百强.东亚区域货币合作与我国的参与对策[J].东北亚论坛,2003(2):8-12.
[36]卢皓.中缅、中老边境人民币流通状况调查与思考[J].时代金融,2007(9):119-120.
[37]马荣华,饶晓辉.人民币的境外需求估计[J].国际金融研究,2007(2):50-59.
[38]邵峰.东亚共同体的可行性分析与中国的战略[J].世界经济与政治,2008(10):23-26.
[39]宋坚.德国经济与市场[M].北京:中国商务出版社,2003.
[40]舒梅.上海:下一站,资本之城[N].南方周末,2009-4-2(13).
[41]田立.人民币国际化的深层阻力[N].上海证券报,2009-1-16(6).
[42]万志宏.东亚货币合作的经济基础研究——最优货币区理论视角[D].天津:南开大学,2003.
[43]王雅范,管涛,温建东.走向人民币可兑换:中国渐进主义的实践[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2002.
[44]吴文旭.论欧洲货币联盟及欧元[M].四川:西南财经大学出版社,2002.
[45]熊厚.欧盟货币政策协调研究[D].四川:四川大学,2007.
[46]徐奇渊.人民币国际化进程中的汇率变化研究[D].吉林:东北师范大学,2008.
[47]徐新华.人民币国际化研究:理论与实证[D].上海:复旦大学,2006.
[48]杨惠昶,付琼.人民币汇率改革必须坚持国家本位[J].经济纵横,2008(1):76-78.
[49]易宪容.人民币离岸金融中心在香港的可行性[N].互联网周刊,2003-9-15(75).
[50]余永定.亚洲金融合作的发展前景[J].金融信息参考,2002(5):55.
[51]余永定.人民币汇率制度改革的历史性一步[J].世界经济与政治,2005(10):7-13.
[52]张斌.东亚汇率制度合作:理论、客观条件与合作方案比较[R/OL].[2003-08]. http://www.iwep.org.cn/download/xiazai2.asp?file_id=189.
[53]张斌.东亚区域货币合作回顾[J].世界经济与政治,2008(10)26-29.
[54]张耿铭.关税与贸易总协定的缘起与发展[J].研究生法学,1996(4):59-62.
[55]郑木清.论人民币国际化的经济效应[J].国际金融研究,1995(7):34-35.
[56]郑晓舟.人民币:从“不受欢迎”到“全流通”[N].上海证券报,2007-6-29(12).
[57]中国人民银行南宁中心支行课题组.人民币区域化、国际化的趋势及影响[J].广西金融研究,2007(7):10-17.
[58]钟伟.略论人民币的国际化进程[J].世界经济,2002(3):56-59.
[59]钟伟.人民币在周边国家流通的现状、问题及对策[J].管理世界,2008(1):165-166.
[60]朱青.欧元与欧洲经货联盟[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1999.
[61]波斯坦,科尔曼.剑桥欧洲经济史-第六卷[M].王春法,译.北京:经济科学出版社,2002.
[62]波斯坦,科尔曼.剑桥欧洲经济史-第八卷[M].王春法,译.北京:经济科学出版社,2004.
[63]恩格尔曼,高尔曼.剑桥美国经济史(第二卷)[M].王钰,李淑清,译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2008.
[64]恩格尔曼,高尔曼.剑桥美国经济史(第三卷)[M].蔡挺,译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2008.
[65]哈耶克.货币的非国家化[M].姚中秋,译.北京:新星出版社,2007.
[66]金德尔伯格.西欧金融史[M].徐子健,译.北京:中国金融出版社,1991.
[67]克鲁格曼.萧条经济学的回归[M].朱文晖,译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,1999.
[68]克鲁格曼,奥伯斯费尔德.国际经济学理论与政策(第四版)[M].海闻,译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,1998.
[69]库茨奥.黄金问题[M].万鹏华,译.北京:中国对外经济贸易出版社,1988.
[70]麦迪森.世界经济千年史[M].伍晓鹰,译.北京:北京大学出版社,2003.
[71]乔恩.货币史[M].李广乾,译.北京:商务印书馆,2002.
[72]奇波拉.欧洲经济史-第四卷下册[M].徐璇,译.北京:商务印书馆,1988.
[73]切克奇尼.1992年欧洲的挑战——统一大市场带来的利益[M].张蕴岭,译.北京:社会科学文献出版社,1989.
[74]斯密.国民财富的性质和原因研究-上卷[M].郭大力,王亚南,译.北京:商务印书馆,2002.
[75]特里芬.黄金与美元危机——自由兑换的未来[M].陈尚霖,雷达,译.北京:商务印书馆,1997.
[76]伊特韦尔,米尔盖特,纽曼.新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典[M].陈岱孙,译.北京:经济科学出版社,1996.
[1] Aliber R.The Future of the Dollar as an International Currency[M].New York:Frederick Praeger,Publishers,1966.
[2] Artis M J,Zhang W.Further Evidence on the International Business Cycle and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?[J].In Oxford Economic Paper,1999:51.
[3] Bayoum T,Eichengreen B.One Money or Many?Analyzing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World[R].Princeton Studies in International Finance,1994,76.
[4] Bayoumi T,Eichengreen B.Ever Closer to Heaven? An Optimum- currency-area Index for European Countries[J].European Economic Review, 1997,Vol 41.
[5] Bayoumi T,Eichengreen B.Exchange Rate Volatility and Intervention: Implications of the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas[J].Journal of International Economics,1998,Vol 45.
[6] Bayoumi T,Eichengreen B,Mauro P.On Regional Monetary Arrangements for Asean[R].http://www.cepii.fr/anglaisgraph/communications/pdf/ 999/ tokyo17181299/171299mauro.pdf.
[7] Bayoumi T,Mauro,P. The Suitability of ASEAN for a Regional Currency Arrangement[J]. The World Economy,2002,24(7):933–954.
[8] Bergman U M.Do Monetary Unions Make Economic Sense?Evidence from the Scandinavian Currency Union,1873-1913[J].Scandinavian Journal of Economics,1999,101(3):363-377.
[9] Bertrand C,Joan M,Robert V. Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe: An Update[R].Research Memoranda:METEOR,2007,050.
[10]Bird G,Rajan R. Optimal Currency Baskets and the Third Currency Phenomenon: Exchange Rate Policy in Southeast Asia[J]. Journal of International Development,2002,14(8):1053–1073.
[11]Boone L,Maurel M. An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs[R].CEPR Discussion Papers,1999,2119.
[12]Carmen M R,Kenneth S R.The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements:A Reinterpretation[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2004,119(1):1-48.
[13]Charles W. A Monetary Union in Asia? Some European Lessons[R]. //Future Directions for Monetary Policies in East Asia. Reserve Bank of Australia, 2001,08.
[14]Challis C E.A Contemporary Estimate of the Production of Silverand Gold Coinage in England,1542-1556[J].English Historical Review,1973,88:349.
[15]Cohen B J.The Future of Sterling as an International Currency[M]. London:Macmilln,1971.
[16]Cobham D.Euro Versus Dollar: Who goes with Which?[M].Heriott- Watt University,2007.
[17]De Grauwe P,Vanhaverbeke W.Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area? Evidence from Regional Data[R].Policy issues in the operation of currency unions pages,Cambridge University Press,1993:111-129.
[18]Dupasquier C,Jacob J.European Economic and Monetary Union:Background and Implications[J].Bank of Canada Review,1997(Autumn):3-28.
[19]Dwyer Jr,Lothian.International Money and Common Currencies in Historical Perspective[R].Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Working Paper,2002(7).
[20]Eichengreen B.One Money for Europe? Lessons from the US Currency Union[R].University of California at Berkeley,Economics Working Papers 90-132,1990.
[21]Eichengreen B.Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?[R].NBER Working Paper,1991,W3579.
[22]Eichengreen B. International Monetary Arrangements for the 21st Century[R]. CIDER Working Papers,1993,C93-021.
[23]Fingland L,Bailey S J. The EU's Stability and Growth Pact: Its Credibility and Sustainability[J].Public Money & Management,2008,28(4):223-230.
[24]Fischer , Stanley.Seigniorage and the Case for a National Money[J].Journal of Political Economy,1982(2):295-313.
[25]Frankel J A, Rose A K.The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria[J].The Economic Journal, 1998,Vol.108.
[26]Friedman B.Targets , Instruments and Indicators of Monetary Policy[J]. Journal of Monetary Economies,1976(4):443-473.
[27]Garber P.Managing Risks to Financial Markets from Volatile Capital Flows: The Role of Prud Ential Regulations[J].International Journal of Finance and Economics,1996(7):183-195.
[28]Goto J. Economic Preconditions for Monetary Cooperation and Surveillance in East Asia[R].https://www.mof.go.jp/jouhou/kokkin/ tyousa/tyou041b.pdf.
[29]Gotur P.Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade:Some Further Evidence[R]. IMF Staff Paper 32,1985.
[30]Guidotti P E,Rodriguez C A.Dollarization in Latin America: Gresham[R].IMF Staff Papers,Vol 39,No 3.
[31]Guillermo A C,Carmen M R. Fear Of Floating[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2002 (May): 379-408.
[32]Hansen J D,Nielson U M.An Economic Analysis of the EuropeanUnion[M].London:McGraw-Hill,1997.
[33]Hazel J,Johnson.Financial Institutions and Markets:A Global Perspective[M]. McGraw-Hill,Inc,1993.
[34]Ishiyama,Yoshihide.The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas:A Survey[R].Staff Papers:International Monetary Fund,1975,22(2):344-383.
[35]Issing O.Monetary Targeting in Germany:The Stability of Monetary Policy and of the Monetary System[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1997,39(1):67-79.
[36]Jeffrey A F. No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times[R]. NBER Working Paper,1999,W7338.
[37]Kalemli-Ozcan S,Sorensen B E,Yosha O.Asymmetric Shocks and Risk Sharing in a Monetary Union:Updated Evidence and Policy Implications for Europe[R].CEPR Discussion Papers,2004,4463.
[38]Kawai M,Takagi S.Proposed Strategy for a Regional Exchange Rate Arrangement in Post-Crisis East Asia[R].World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,2000,2503.
[39]Khoury S J,Wihlborg C. Lessons from the EMU for Asian Regional Integration: An Economic Perspective[J].Journal of Asia-Pacific Business,2008,9(1):82-102.
[40]Kindleberger C P.The Benefits of International Money[J].Journal of International Economics,1972(2):425-442.
[41]Krugman P R.Exchange-Rate Instability[J].Journal of Economic Literature,1990, 28(2):705-707.
[42]Krugman P R.Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1991,106(3):669-682.
[43]Krugman P R.Currencies and Crises[M].The MIT Press,1992.
[44]Krugman P R.Lessons of Massachusetts for EMU[C].//Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1993.
[45]Lane P R. The Real Effects of European Monetary Union[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,2006,20(4):47-66.
[46]Liang H.Do Hong Kong SAR and China Constitute An Optimal Currency Area? An Empirical Test of the Generalized Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis[R].IMF Working Paper,1999,79.
[47]McKinnon R I.Optimum Currency Areas[J].The American Economic Review,1963,53(4):717-725.
[48]Mckinnon R I,Ohno K.Dollar and Yen:Resolving Economic Conflict between the United States and Janpan[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,1998, 26(3):597-599.
[49]McKinnon R I.After the Crisis, the East Asian Dollar Standard Resurrected: An Interpretation of High-Frequency Exchange-Rate Pegging[C]. Lecture given in Shanghai,2000(11).
[50]Mongelli F P.European Economic and Monetary Integration and the Optimum Currency Area Theory[R].Economic Papers:European Commission,2008,No 302.
[51]Mundell R A.A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas[J].The American Economic Review,1961,51(4):657-665.
[52]Mundell R A.Currency Areas, Common Currencies, and EMU[J].The American Economic Review,1997,87(2):214-216.
[53]Obstfled M,Rogoff K.The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rate[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,1995,9(4):73-96.
[54]Oppers S E.A Model of the Bimetallic System[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2000,46(2):517-533.
[55]Ricci L A. A Model of an Optimum Currency Area[R].Economics Discussion Papers,2007,45.
[56]Rolnick J,Velde R,Weber E.The Debasement Puzzle: An Essay on Medieval Monetary History[J].The Journal of Economic History,1996,56(4):789-791.
[57]Rose A K.One Money,One Market:Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade[R].National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper,1999,7432.
[58]Rose A K.Common Currency Areas in Practice[R].Ottawa,November 2000. http://www1.bank-banque-canada.ca/en/res/wp/2000/rose.pdf.
[59]Sargent T J,Wallace N.A Model of Commodity Money[R].Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department Staff Report 85,1983.
[60]Tavlas G S , Ozeki Y.The Japanese Yen as an International Currency[R].IMF Working Paper,1991,2.
[61]Tavlas G S.On the International Use of Currencies:The Case of the Deutsche Mark[R].Princeton Studies in International Economics,1991.
[62]Trivisvavet T.Do East Asian Countries Constitute an Optimum Currency Area? [R/OL]. Duke University,2001.http://www.econ.duke.edu/ dje/2001/trivisvavet.pdf.
[63]Williamson J. The Case for a Basket,Band and Crawl (BBC) Regime for East Asia[C].RBA Annual Conference Volume:Reserve Bank of Australia,2001,6.
[64]Wyplosz C.European Monetary Union: the Dark Sides of a Major Success[J].Economic Policy,2006,21(46):207-261.
[65]Wyplosz C.Exchange Rate Arrangements in Asia: Do They Matter?[R]. HEI Working Papers,04-2007.
[66]Wyplosz C,Park Y C.Exchange Rate Cooperation in East Asia A European View and a Simple Solution[C].http://www.tcf.or.jp/data/ 20081111-12_C_Wyplosz-Y-C_ Park.pdf.
[67]Yuen H.Is Asia an Optimum Currency Area?“Shocking”Aspects of Output Fluctuations in East Asia[R/OL].Department of Economics:National University of Singapore,2000. http://www.fas.nus.edu.sg/ecs/pub/wp/ previous/Hazel.pdf.
[68]Zhang Z , Sato K , McAleer M.Asian Monetary Integration: A Structural VAR Approach[R].CIRJE F-Series:University of Tokyo,2003.
②姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):6.
③姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):6.
①姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):6.
①姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):7.
②姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):7.
①姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):7.
②姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):7.
③姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):7.
①姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):8.
②姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):8.
③姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):8.
④姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):8.
⑤姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):8.
①姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):8.
②参考徐新华.人民币国际化研究:理论与实证[D].上海:复旦大学,2006:8-11.
③胡智,文启湘.人民币国际化模式探讨[J].北经贸大学学报,2002(5):42-46.
④刘爱文.人民币的国际化之路[J].商业研究,2005(18):150-153.
⑤刘爱文.人民币的国际化之路[J].商业研究,2005(18):150-153.
①郑木清.论人民币国际化的经济效应[J].国际金融研究,1995(7):34-35.
②李晓,李俊久,丁一兵.论人民币的亚洲化[J].世界经济,2004(2):21-34.
③姜波克.人民币自由兑换和资本管制[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,1999.
①徐新华.人民币国际化研究:理论与实证[D].上海:复旦大学,2006:8-11.
②姜波克.人民币自由兑换和资本管制[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,1999.
③钟伟.略论人民币的国际化进程[J].世界经济,2002(3):56-59.
①李晓,李俊久,丁一兵.论人民币的亚洲化[J].世界经济,2004(2):21-34.
②陈岩岩,唐爱朋,孙健.人民币国际化过程中货币整合的可行性分析[J].西南金融,2005(7):7-9.
③李婧.中国资本账户自由化与汇率制度选择[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2006.
①乔恩.货币史[M].李广乾,译.北京:商务印书馆,2002:112.
②波斯坦,科尔曼.剑桥欧洲经济史-第八卷[M].王春法,译.北京:经济科学出版社,2004:181.
①波斯坦,科尔曼.剑桥欧洲经济史-第八卷[M].王春法,译.北京:经济科学出版社,2004:102.
①哈耶克.货币的非国家化[M].姚中秋,译.北京:新星出版社,2007:36.
①恩格尔曼,高尔曼.剑桥美国经济史(第二卷)[M].王钰,李淑清,译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2008:473.
①张耿铭.关税与贸易总协定的缘起与发展[J].研究生法学,1996(4):59-62.
②[美]罗伯特·特里芬著,陈尚霖、雷达译:《黄金与美元危机——自由兑换的未来》,商务印书馆,1997。
①伊特韦尔,米尔盖特,纽曼.新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典[M].陈岱孙,译.北京:经济科学出版社,1996:792.
①Hansen J D,Nielson U M.An economic analysis of the European Union[M].London:McGraw-Hill,1997:138-139.
①熊厚.欧盟货币政策协调研究[D].四川:四川大学,2007.
②丁一兵,李晓.关于东亚区域货币合作的研究:文献综述[J].当代亚太,2004(6):16-22.
③克鲁格曼,奥伯斯费尔德.国际经济学理论与政策(第四版)[M].海闻,译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,1998.
①切克奇尼. 1992年欧洲的挑战——统一大市场带来的利益[M].张蕴岭,译.北京:社会科学文献出版社,1989.
①宋坚.德国经济与市场[M].北京:中国商务出版社,2003.
①参考吴文旭.论欧洲货币联盟及欧元[M].四川:西南财经大学出版社,2002:6-7.
①Artis M J,Zhang W.Further Evidence on the International Business Cycle and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle? [J].In Oxford Economic Paper,1999:51.
①Bayoumi T,Eichengreen B.Ever Closer to Heaven? An Optimum-currency-area Index for European Countries[J].European Economic Review,1997,Vol.41.
①徐奇渊.人民币国际化进程中的汇率变化研究[D].吉林:东北师范大学,2008.
②郑晓舟.人民币:从“不受欢迎”到“全流通”[N].上海证券报,2007-6-29(12).
③钟伟.人民币在周边国家流通的现状、问题及对策[J].管理世界,2008(1):165-166.
①卢皓.中缅、中老边境人民币流通状况调查与思考[J].时代金融,2007(9):119-120.
②关键.人民币与卢布现钞在中俄边境地区流通状况比较[J].黑龙江金融,2006(12):47-48.
①方国志.人民币在东盟流通的现状及策略[J].南方金融,2008(5):66-67.
②卢皓.中缅、中老边境人民币流通状况调查与思考[J].时代金融,2007(9):119-120.
③王雅范,管涛,温建东.走向人民币可兑换:中国渐进主义的实践[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2002.
④李婧,管涛,何帆.人民币跨境流通的现状及对中国经济的影响[J].管理世界,2004(9):45-52.
⑤钟伟.人民币在周边国家流通的现状、问题及对策[J].管理世界,2008(1):165-166.
⑥马荣华,饶晓辉.人民币的境外需求估计[J].国际金融研究,2007(2):50-59.
⑦董继华.境外人民币流通规模估计——基于季度数据的协整分析[J].当代经济科学,2008(1):28-36.
①徐明朝,高中良.人民币离岸中心发展与监管研究[J].金融理论与实践,2008(2):36-42.
①郑晓舟.人民币:从“不受欢迎”到“全流通”[N].上海证券报,2007-6-29(12).
②钟伟.人民币在周边国家流通的现状、问题及对策[J].管理世界,2008(1):165-166.
①李军睿.我国石油天然气行业景气分析[D].长春:吉林大学,2003:15-17.
①万志宏.东亚货币合作的经济基础研究——最优货币区理论视角[D].天津:南开大学,2003.
①吴文旭.论欧洲货币联盟及欧元[M].四川:西南财经大学出版社,2002.
[1]陈虹.东亚区域合作:日本的出发点与诉求及对中国的借鉴意义[J].亚非纵横,2007(1):30-34.
[2]陈明.美国《金本位法》确立的历史背景透析[J].吉首大学学报,2003(12):54-58.
[3]陈岩岩,唐爱朋,孙健.人民币国际化过程中货币整合的可行性分析[J].西南金融,2005(7):7-9.
[4]曾钢.金融国际化研究[D].四川:西南财经大学,2000.
[5]丁一兵.汇率制度选择[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2005.
[6]丁一兵,李晓.关于东亚区域货币合作的研究:文献综述[J].当代亚太,2004(6):16-22.
[7]董继华.境外人民币流通规模估计——基于季度数据的协整分析[J].当代经济科学,2008(1):28-36.
[8]方国志.人民币在东盟流通的现状及策略[J].南方金融,2008(5):66-67.
[9]付竞卉.关于人民币国际化问题的国内研究综述[J].现代商业,2007(8):134-135.
[10]高海红.最优货币区:对东亚国家的经验研究[J].世界经济,2007(6):3-12.
[11]关键.人民币与卢布现钞在中俄边境地区流通状况比较[J].黑龙江金融,2006(12):47-48.
[12]何国华.西方货币国际化理论综述[J].经济评论,2007(4):156-160.
[13]胡智,文启湘.人民币国际化模式探讨[J].北经贸大学学报,2002(5):42-46.
[14]姜波克.人民币自由兑换和资本管制[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,1999.
[15]姜波克,张青龙.货币国际化:条件与影响的研究综述[J].新金融,2005(8):6-8.
[16]姜波克,张青龙.国际货币的两难及人民币国际化的思考[J].学习与探索,2005(4):17-24.
[17]姜波克,罗得志.最优货币区理论综述兼述欧元、亚元问题[J].世界经济文汇,2002(1):73-80.
[18]李婧.中国资本账户自由化与汇率制度选择[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2006.
[19]李婧,管涛,何帆.人民币跨境流通的现状及对中国经济的影响[J].管理世界,2004(9):45-52.
[20]李向阳.区域经济合作中的小国战略[J].当代亚太,2008(3):36-49.
[21]李晓,戴金平.21世纪初期东亚货币合作与人民币国际化[M].吉林:吉林大学出版社,2006.
[22]李晓.“日元国际化”的困境及其战略调整[J].世界经济,2005(6):3-18.
[23]李晓,丁一兵.论东亚货币合作的具体措施[J].世界经济,2002(11):3-10.
[24]李晓,丁一兵.新世纪的东亚区域货币合作:中国的地位与作用[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2004(2):79-87.
[25]李晓,丁一兵.现阶段的东亚金融合作:面临的挑战及政策建议[J].国际经济评论,2005(3):57-61.
[26]李晓,丁一兵.亚洲的超越——构建东亚区域货币体系与“人民币亚洲化”[M].北京:当代中国出版社,2006.
[27]李晓,丁一兵.经济冲击对称性与区域经济合作:东亚与其他区域的比较研究[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2006(4):46-58.
[28]李晓,丁一兵.欧洲货币一体化的推动力与大国关系——从国际政治经济学角度的考察[J].学习与探索,2007(5):146-151.
[29]李晓,丁一兵.全球金融动荡环境下的东亚金融合作:政策选择及建议[J].国际经济评论,2008(6):45-49.
[30]李晓,丁一兵.人民币汇率变动趋势及其对区域货币合作的影响[J].国际金融研究,2009(3):8-15.
[31]李晓,李俊久,丁一兵.论人民币的亚洲化[J].世界经济,2004(2):21-34.
[32]李众敏.东亚一体化框架下的经济合作:在不平衡中寻求“共生”[J].世界经济与政治,2008(10):29-31.
[33]刘爱文.人民币的国际化之路[J].商业研究,2005(18):150-153.
[34]刘力臻.论国际区域货币合作[J].税务与经济,2003(3):1-5.
[35]刘力臻,焦百强.东亚区域货币合作与我国的参与对策[J].东北亚论坛,2003(2):8-12.
[36]卢皓.中缅、中老边境人民币流通状况调查与思考[J].时代金融,2007(9):119-120.
[37]马荣华,饶晓辉.人民币的境外需求估计[J].国际金融研究,2007(2):50-59.
[38]邵峰.东亚共同体的可行性分析与中国的战略[J].世界经济与政治,2008(10):23-26.
[39]宋坚.德国经济与市场[M].北京:中国商务出版社,2003.
[40]舒梅.上海:下一站,资本之城[N].南方周末,2009-4-2(13).
[41]田立.人民币国际化的深层阻力[N].上海证券报,2009-1-16(6).
[42]万志宏.东亚货币合作的经济基础研究——最优货币区理论视角[D].天津:南开大学,2003.
[43]王雅范,管涛,温建东.走向人民币可兑换:中国渐进主义的实践[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2002.
[44]吴文旭.论欧洲货币联盟及欧元[M].四川:西南财经大学出版社,2002.
[45]熊厚.欧盟货币政策协调研究[D].四川:四川大学,2007.
[46]徐奇渊.人民币国际化进程中的汇率变化研究[D].吉林:东北师范大学,2008.
[47]徐新华.人民币国际化研究:理论与实证[D].上海:复旦大学,2006.
[48]杨惠昶,付琼.人民币汇率改革必须坚持国家本位[J].经济纵横,2008(1):76-78.
[49]易宪容.人民币离岸金融中心在香港的可行性[N].互联网周刊,2003-9-15(75).
[50]余永定.亚洲金融合作的发展前景[J].金融信息参考,2002(5):55.
[51]余永定.人民币汇率制度改革的历史性一步[J].世界经济与政治,2005(10):7-13.
[52]张斌.东亚汇率制度合作:理论、客观条件与合作方案比较[R/OL].[2003-08]. http://www.iwep.org.cn/download/xiazai2.asp?file_id=189.
[53]张斌.东亚区域货币合作回顾[J].世界经济与政治,2008(10)26-29.
[54]张耿铭.关税与贸易总协定的缘起与发展[J].研究生法学,1996(4):59-62.
[55]郑木清.论人民币国际化的经济效应[J].国际金融研究,1995(7):34-35.
[56]郑晓舟.人民币:从“不受欢迎”到“全流通”[N].上海证券报,2007-6-29(12).
[57]中国人民银行南宁中心支行课题组.人民币区域化、国际化的趋势及影响[J].广西金融研究,2007(7):10-17.
[58]钟伟.略论人民币的国际化进程[J].世界经济,2002(3):56-59.
[59]钟伟.人民币在周边国家流通的现状、问题及对策[J].管理世界,2008(1):165-166.
[60]朱青.欧元与欧洲经货联盟[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1999.
[61]波斯坦,科尔曼.剑桥欧洲经济史-第六卷[M].王春法,译.北京:经济科学出版社,2002.
[62]波斯坦,科尔曼.剑桥欧洲经济史-第八卷[M].王春法,译.北京:经济科学出版社,2004.
[63]恩格尔曼,高尔曼.剑桥美国经济史(第二卷)[M].王钰,李淑清,译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2008.
[64]恩格尔曼,高尔曼.剑桥美国经济史(第三卷)[M].蔡挺,译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2008.
[65]哈耶克.货币的非国家化[M].姚中秋,译.北京:新星出版社,2007.
[66]金德尔伯格.西欧金融史[M].徐子健,译.北京:中国金融出版社,1991.
[67]克鲁格曼.萧条经济学的回归[M].朱文晖,译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,1999.
[68]克鲁格曼,奥伯斯费尔德.国际经济学理论与政策(第四版)[M].海闻,译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,1998.
[69]库茨奥.黄金问题[M].万鹏华,译.北京:中国对外经济贸易出版社,1988.
[70]麦迪森.世界经济千年史[M].伍晓鹰,译.北京:北京大学出版社,2003.
[71]乔恩.货币史[M].李广乾,译.北京:商务印书馆,2002.
[72]奇波拉.欧洲经济史-第四卷下册[M].徐璇,译.北京:商务印书馆,1988.
[73]切克奇尼.1992年欧洲的挑战——统一大市场带来的利益[M].张蕴岭,译.北京:社会科学文献出版社,1989.
[74]斯密.国民财富的性质和原因研究-上卷[M].郭大力,王亚南,译.北京:商务印书馆,2002.
[75]特里芬.黄金与美元危机——自由兑换的未来[M].陈尚霖,雷达,译.北京:商务印书馆,1997.
[76]伊特韦尔,米尔盖特,纽曼.新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典[M].陈岱孙,译.北京:经济科学出版社,1996.
[1] Aliber R.The Future of the Dollar as an International Currency[M].New York:Frederick Praeger,Publishers,1966.
[2] Artis M J,Zhang W.Further Evidence on the International Business Cycle and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?[J].In Oxford Economic Paper,1999:51.
[3] Bayoum T,Eichengreen B.One Money or Many?Analyzing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World[R].Princeton Studies in International Finance,1994,76.
[4] Bayoumi T,Eichengreen B.Ever Closer to Heaven? An Optimum- currency-area Index for European Countries[J].European Economic Review, 1997,Vol 41.
[5] Bayoumi T,Eichengreen B.Exchange Rate Volatility and Intervention: Implications of the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas[J].Journal of International Economics,1998,Vol 45.
[6] Bayoumi T,Eichengreen B,Mauro P.On Regional Monetary Arrangements for Asean[R].http://www.cepii.fr/anglaisgraph/communications/pdf/ 999/ tokyo17181299/171299mauro.pdf.
[7] Bayoumi T,Mauro,P. The Suitability of ASEAN for a Regional Currency Arrangement[J]. The World Economy,2002,24(7):933–954.
[8] Bergman U M.Do Monetary Unions Make Economic Sense?Evidence from the Scandinavian Currency Union,1873-1913[J].Scandinavian Journal of Economics,1999,101(3):363-377.
[9] Bertrand C,Joan M,Robert V. Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe: An Update[R].Research Memoranda:METEOR,2007,050.
[10]Bird G,Rajan R. Optimal Currency Baskets and the Third Currency Phenomenon: Exchange Rate Policy in Southeast Asia[J]. Journal of International Development,2002,14(8):1053–1073.
[11]Boone L,Maurel M. An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs[R].CEPR Discussion Papers,1999,2119.
[12]Carmen M R,Kenneth S R.The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements:A Reinterpretation[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2004,119(1):1-48.
[13]Charles W. A Monetary Union in Asia? Some European Lessons[R]. //Future Directions for Monetary Policies in East Asia. Reserve Bank of Australia, 2001,08.
[14]Challis C E.A Contemporary Estimate of the Production of Silverand Gold Coinage in England,1542-1556[J].English Historical Review,1973,88:349.
[15]Cohen B J.The Future of Sterling as an International Currency[M]. London:Macmilln,1971.
[16]Cobham D.Euro Versus Dollar: Who goes with Which?[M].Heriott- Watt University,2007.
[17]De Grauwe P,Vanhaverbeke W.Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area? Evidence from Regional Data[R].Policy issues in the operation of currency unions pages,Cambridge University Press,1993:111-129.
[18]Dupasquier C,Jacob J.European Economic and Monetary Union:Background and Implications[J].Bank of Canada Review,1997(Autumn):3-28.
[19]Dwyer Jr,Lothian.International Money and Common Currencies in Historical Perspective[R].Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Working Paper,2002(7).
[20]Eichengreen B.One Money for Europe? Lessons from the US Currency Union[R].University of California at Berkeley,Economics Working Papers 90-132,1990.
[21]Eichengreen B.Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?[R].NBER Working Paper,1991,W3579.
[22]Eichengreen B. International Monetary Arrangements for the 21st Century[R]. CIDER Working Papers,1993,C93-021.
[23]Fingland L,Bailey S J. The EU's Stability and Growth Pact: Its Credibility and Sustainability[J].Public Money & Management,2008,28(4):223-230.
[24]Fischer , Stanley.Seigniorage and the Case for a National Money[J].Journal of Political Economy,1982(2):295-313.
[25]Frankel J A, Rose A K.The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria[J].The Economic Journal, 1998,Vol.108.
[26]Friedman B.Targets , Instruments and Indicators of Monetary Policy[J]. Journal of Monetary Economies,1976(4):443-473.
[27]Garber P.Managing Risks to Financial Markets from Volatile Capital Flows: The Role of Prud Ential Regulations[J].International Journal of Finance and Economics,1996(7):183-195.
[28]Goto J. Economic Preconditions for Monetary Cooperation and Surveillance in East Asia[R].https://www.mof.go.jp/jouhou/kokkin/ tyousa/tyou041b.pdf.
[29]Gotur P.Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade:Some Further Evidence[R]. IMF Staff Paper 32,1985.
[30]Guidotti P E,Rodriguez C A.Dollarization in Latin America: Gresham[R].IMF Staff Papers,Vol 39,No 3.
[31]Guillermo A C,Carmen M R. Fear Of Floating[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2002 (May): 379-408.
[32]Hansen J D,Nielson U M.An Economic Analysis of the EuropeanUnion[M].London:McGraw-Hill,1997.
[33]Hazel J,Johnson.Financial Institutions and Markets:A Global Perspective[M]. McGraw-Hill,Inc,1993.
[34]Ishiyama,Yoshihide.The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas:A Survey[R].Staff Papers:International Monetary Fund,1975,22(2):344-383.
[35]Issing O.Monetary Targeting in Germany:The Stability of Monetary Policy and of the Monetary System[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1997,39(1):67-79.
[36]Jeffrey A F. No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times[R]. NBER Working Paper,1999,W7338.
[37]Kalemli-Ozcan S,Sorensen B E,Yosha O.Asymmetric Shocks and Risk Sharing in a Monetary Union:Updated Evidence and Policy Implications for Europe[R].CEPR Discussion Papers,2004,4463.
[38]Kawai M,Takagi S.Proposed Strategy for a Regional Exchange Rate Arrangement in Post-Crisis East Asia[R].World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,2000,2503.
[39]Khoury S J,Wihlborg C. Lessons from the EMU for Asian Regional Integration: An Economic Perspective[J].Journal of Asia-Pacific Business,2008,9(1):82-102.
[40]Kindleberger C P.The Benefits of International Money[J].Journal of International Economics,1972(2):425-442.
[41]Krugman P R.Exchange-Rate Instability[J].Journal of Economic Literature,1990, 28(2):705-707.
[42]Krugman P R.Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1991,106(3):669-682.
[43]Krugman P R.Currencies and Crises[M].The MIT Press,1992.
[44]Krugman P R.Lessons of Massachusetts for EMU[C].//Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1993.
[45]Lane P R. The Real Effects of European Monetary Union[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,2006,20(4):47-66.
[46]Liang H.Do Hong Kong SAR and China Constitute An Optimal Currency Area? An Empirical Test of the Generalized Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis[R].IMF Working Paper,1999,79.
[47]McKinnon R I.Optimum Currency Areas[J].The American Economic Review,1963,53(4):717-725.
[48]Mckinnon R I,Ohno K.Dollar and Yen:Resolving Economic Conflict between the United States and Janpan[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,1998, 26(3):597-599.
[49]McKinnon R I.After the Crisis, the East Asian Dollar Standard Resurrected: An Interpretation of High-Frequency Exchange-Rate Pegging[C]. Lecture given in Shanghai,2000(11).
[50]Mongelli F P.European Economic and Monetary Integration and the Optimum Currency Area Theory[R].Economic Papers:European Commission,2008,No 302.
[51]Mundell R A.A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas[J].The American Economic Review,1961,51(4):657-665.
[52]Mundell R A.Currency Areas, Common Currencies, and EMU[J].The American Economic Review,1997,87(2):214-216.
[53]Obstfled M,Rogoff K.The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rate[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,1995,9(4):73-96.
[54]Oppers S E.A Model of the Bimetallic System[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2000,46(2):517-533.
[55]Ricci L A. A Model of an Optimum Currency Area[R].Economics Discussion Papers,2007,45.
[56]Rolnick J,Velde R,Weber E.The Debasement Puzzle: An Essay on Medieval Monetary History[J].The Journal of Economic History,1996,56(4):789-791.
[57]Rose A K.One Money,One Market:Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade[R].National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper,1999,7432.
[58]Rose A K.Common Currency Areas in Practice[R].Ottawa,November 2000. http://www1.bank-banque-canada.ca/en/res/wp/2000/rose.pdf.
[59]Sargent T J,Wallace N.A Model of Commodity Money[R].Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department Staff Report 85,1983.
[60]Tavlas G S , Ozeki Y.The Japanese Yen as an International Currency[R].IMF Working Paper,1991,2.
[61]Tavlas G S.On the International Use of Currencies:The Case of the Deutsche Mark[R].Princeton Studies in International Economics,1991.
[62]Trivisvavet T.Do East Asian Countries Constitute an Optimum Currency Area? [R/OL]. Duke University,2001.http://www.econ.duke.edu/ dje/2001/trivisvavet.pdf.
[63]Williamson J. The Case for a Basket,Band and Crawl (BBC) Regime for East Asia[C].RBA Annual Conference Volume:Reserve Bank of Australia,2001,6.
[64]Wyplosz C.European Monetary Union: the Dark Sides of a Major Success[J].Economic Policy,2006,21(46):207-261.
[65]Wyplosz C.Exchange Rate Arrangements in Asia: Do They Matter?[R]. HEI Working Papers,04-2007.
[66]Wyplosz C,Park Y C.Exchange Rate Cooperation in East Asia A European View and a Simple Solution[C].http://www.tcf.or.jp/data/ 20081111-12_C_Wyplosz-Y-C_ Park.pdf.
[67]Yuen H.Is Asia an Optimum Currency Area?“Shocking”Aspects of Output Fluctuations in East Asia[R/OL].Department of Economics:National University of Singapore,2000. http://www.fas.nus.edu.sg/ecs/pub/wp/ previous/Hazel.pdf.
[68]Zhang Z , Sato K , McAleer M.Asian Monetary Integration: A Structural VAR Approach[R].CIRJE F-Series:University of Tokyo,2003.