出入境检验检疫符合性条件的筛选、检验策划及风险预警研究
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摘要
随着中国对外贸易的迅速发展,对出入境检验检疫的需求日益增长。据统计数据可知,我国仅有检验检疫人员30000名左右,而2005年进出口达到超万亿元人民币的物流、两亿次的人流和六千多万运输工具流,数据表明这种矛盾已经接近于极限状态。为了保持我国的对外贸易和国内经济社会持续、稳定、健康发展,检验检疫作为集技术把关和管理服务于一身的涉外经济管理部门必须不断提高执法水平和执法效率。做到检得快,检得准,管得好,本文研究出入境检验检疫符合性条件的筛选及统计抽样检验的策划与实施,选题具有重要的理论意义和很高的实用价值。具体内容有:
第一章概要地介绍了本文的研究背景和意义、国内外研究现状以及研究内容和思路;第二章运用故障失效模型与影响分析(FMEA)及排列图(Pareto图)构建了出入境检验检疫符合性条件筛选整体模型。首先,依据FMEA理论建立出入境检验检疫符合性条件的风险评价模型,然后,根据风险优先系数(RPN)的大小分析符合性条件的重要性,最后,用Pareto图依据管理中的二八原理对符合性条件进行筛选,选取目标符合性条件;第三章基于D-S理论、MSA理论和FMEA理论对出入境检验检疫符合性条件筛选整体模型中的发生度、严重度与检出度进行测评。首先,对背景符合性条件进行风险因子解析,建立背景符合条件发生度、严重度评价指标体系,基于D-S证据理论测评其发生度、严重度,基于测量系统分析理论(MSA)和FMEA测评检出度;第四章首先介绍了统计抽样检验的一般理论和方法,然后依据GB/T2828.1-2003制订了目标符合性条件的计数调整型抽样检验方案;第五章,基于信息熵与修正的灰色关联度预测模型构建出入境检验检疫对象风险预警度评价模型,并进行了检验检疫对象风险预警分类分级研究。其具体步骤为:首先运用层次分析法(AHP法)和信息熵法确定综合权重,然后基于BP预测模型求出预警度综合评价值,最后基于修正后的灰色关联度模型得到具体的预警度级别;第六章进行实证研究,以出口长毛绒玩具为例,从背景符合性条件中筛选出目标符合性条件,并对目标符合性条件设计了计数调整型一次抽样检验方案;第七章为全文的总结和展望,给出了论文的主要结论、主要创新点,并对未来的研究方向作了展望。
论文的主要创新点如下:
(1)运用故障模式与影响分析(FMEA)及排列图(Pareto图)构建了出入境检验检疫符合性条件筛选整体模型;
(2)基于证据理论(D-S)测评检验检疫背景符合性条件的发生度、严重度,基于测量系统分析理论(MSA)和故障模式与影响分析理论(FMEA)测评检验检疫背景符合性条件的检出度;
(3)依据GB/T2828.1-2003制订了目标符合性条件的计数调整型一次抽样检验方案,并进行了实证研究;
(4)基于信息熵与修正的灰色关联度预测模型构建了出入境检验检疫对象风险预警的评价模型,求出了预警度评价值与级别。
The fast growth of China's foreign trade leads to rapid growth in entry-exit inspection and quarantine demand. According to the statistics, there're only about 30,000 inspection and quarantine staff members in China. However, in 2005, the total volume of the import and export goods exceeded 1 trillion RMB, entry and exit passenger volume reached 0.2 billion, and entry and exit vehicles exceeded 60 million, which indicate that the contradiction between the two is approaching a tense limit. In order to maintain the sustainable, stable and sound development of our foreign trade and domestic economy, the inspection and quarantine administration authority as a department of foreign-related economic management, which combines technical control and management service, has to improve its level of law enforcement and efficiency, and conduct the inspection work quickly and accurately. This paper aims to research the screening of the conformity conditions of entry-exit inspection and quarantine, and the planning and implementation of statistical sampling inspection. This topic is of profound theoretical and practical significances. It covers following contents:
Chapter 1 is an overview of the research background and significance of this paper, and it introduces the current situation, contents and ideas of the research at home and abroad. Chapter 2 builds an integrated model of entry-exit inspection and quarantine conformity conditions screening by using Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Pareto Diagram. Firstly, to set up the Risk Assessment Model of entry-exit inspection and quarantine conformity conditions based on the theory of FMEA, and then analyze the importance of conformity conditions according to the Risk Priority Numbers (RPN), and finally, select the target conformity conditions by applying the Pareto's Principle or the 80/20 rule. Chapter 3 evaluates the occurrence, severity and detection of the integrated model of the entry-exit inspection and quarantine conformity conditions screening based on D-S Evidence Theory, MSA Theory and FMEA Theory. Firstly, to analyze the risk factors of background conformity conditions, and then establish the severity evaluation index system to determine the severity level based on D-S Evidence Theory, and evaluate the detection based on MSA Theory and FMEA Theory. Chapter 4 firstly introduces the basic theory and method of statistical sampling inspection; and then formulate the adjusting sampling inspection scheme by attributes of target conformity conditions according to GB/T2828. 1-2003. Chapter 5 sets up Risk Pre-warning Evaluation Model of Inspection and Quarantine Objects Security Conditions based on Information Entropy Measures and Grey Relevance Prediction Model, and studies pre-warning according to its different level and classification. Its concrete steps are: first, to determine the comprehensive weigh by adopting Analytic Hierarchy Process Method (AHP method) and Information Entropy Measures; and then get the comprehensive evaluation value of pre-warning based on BP Prediction Model; finally to determine the specific level of pre-warning based on corrected Grey Relevance Prediction Model. Chapter 6 conducts the empirical research, takes the export plush toys as the example, screens the target conformity conditions from the background conformity conditions, and designs the adjusting single sampling inspection scheme by attributes for target conformity conditions. Chapter 7 is the summary and expectation of this paper; it gives the conclusion, the innovation points and future directions of research. The innovation points of this paper mainly include:
(1)To build an integrated model of entry-exit inspection and quarantine conformity conditions screening by applying Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Pareto Diagram;
(2) To evaluate the occurrence and severity of the entry-exit inspection and quarantine conformity conditions based on D-S (Dempster-Shafer) Evidence Theory, and evaluate the detection based on Measurement System Analysis Theory (MSA) and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA);
(3) To design the adjusting single sampling inspection scheme by attributes according to GB/T2828. 1-2003, and conduct the empirical research.
(4) To set up the risk pre-warning assessment model of the entry-exit inspection and quarantine objects security conditions based on Information Entropy Measures and corrected Grey Relevance Prediction Model, and get pre-warning value and level.
第一章概要地介绍了本文的研究背景和意义、国内外研究现状以及研究内容和思路;第二章运用故障失效模型与影响分析(FMEA)及排列图(Pareto图)构建了出入境检验检疫符合性条件筛选整体模型。首先,依据FMEA理论建立出入境检验检疫符合性条件的风险评价模型,然后,根据风险优先系数(RPN)的大小分析符合性条件的重要性,最后,用Pareto图依据管理中的二八原理对符合性条件进行筛选,选取目标符合性条件;第三章基于D-S理论、MSA理论和FMEA理论对出入境检验检疫符合性条件筛选整体模型中的发生度、严重度与检出度进行测评。首先,对背景符合性条件进行风险因子解析,建立背景符合条件发生度、严重度评价指标体系,基于D-S证据理论测评其发生度、严重度,基于测量系统分析理论(MSA)和FMEA测评检出度;第四章首先介绍了统计抽样检验的一般理论和方法,然后依据GB/T2828.1-2003制订了目标符合性条件的计数调整型抽样检验方案;第五章,基于信息熵与修正的灰色关联度预测模型构建出入境检验检疫对象风险预警度评价模型,并进行了检验检疫对象风险预警分类分级研究。其具体步骤为:首先运用层次分析法(AHP法)和信息熵法确定综合权重,然后基于BP预测模型求出预警度综合评价值,最后基于修正后的灰色关联度模型得到具体的预警度级别;第六章进行实证研究,以出口长毛绒玩具为例,从背景符合性条件中筛选出目标符合性条件,并对目标符合性条件设计了计数调整型一次抽样检验方案;第七章为全文的总结和展望,给出了论文的主要结论、主要创新点,并对未来的研究方向作了展望。
论文的主要创新点如下:
(1)运用故障模式与影响分析(FMEA)及排列图(Pareto图)构建了出入境检验检疫符合性条件筛选整体模型;
(2)基于证据理论(D-S)测评检验检疫背景符合性条件的发生度、严重度,基于测量系统分析理论(MSA)和故障模式与影响分析理论(FMEA)测评检验检疫背景符合性条件的检出度;
(3)依据GB/T2828.1-2003制订了目标符合性条件的计数调整型一次抽样检验方案,并进行了实证研究;
(4)基于信息熵与修正的灰色关联度预测模型构建了出入境检验检疫对象风险预警的评价模型,求出了预警度评价值与级别。
The fast growth of China's foreign trade leads to rapid growth in entry-exit inspection and quarantine demand. According to the statistics, there're only about 30,000 inspection and quarantine staff members in China. However, in 2005, the total volume of the import and export goods exceeded 1 trillion RMB, entry and exit passenger volume reached 0.2 billion, and entry and exit vehicles exceeded 60 million, which indicate that the contradiction between the two is approaching a tense limit. In order to maintain the sustainable, stable and sound development of our foreign trade and domestic economy, the inspection and quarantine administration authority as a department of foreign-related economic management, which combines technical control and management service, has to improve its level of law enforcement and efficiency, and conduct the inspection work quickly and accurately. This paper aims to research the screening of the conformity conditions of entry-exit inspection and quarantine, and the planning and implementation of statistical sampling inspection. This topic is of profound theoretical and practical significances. It covers following contents:
Chapter 1 is an overview of the research background and significance of this paper, and it introduces the current situation, contents and ideas of the research at home and abroad. Chapter 2 builds an integrated model of entry-exit inspection and quarantine conformity conditions screening by using Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Pareto Diagram. Firstly, to set up the Risk Assessment Model of entry-exit inspection and quarantine conformity conditions based on the theory of FMEA, and then analyze the importance of conformity conditions according to the Risk Priority Numbers (RPN), and finally, select the target conformity conditions by applying the Pareto's Principle or the 80/20 rule. Chapter 3 evaluates the occurrence, severity and detection of the integrated model of the entry-exit inspection and quarantine conformity conditions screening based on D-S Evidence Theory, MSA Theory and FMEA Theory. Firstly, to analyze the risk factors of background conformity conditions, and then establish the severity evaluation index system to determine the severity level based on D-S Evidence Theory, and evaluate the detection based on MSA Theory and FMEA Theory. Chapter 4 firstly introduces the basic theory and method of statistical sampling inspection; and then formulate the adjusting sampling inspection scheme by attributes of target conformity conditions according to GB/T2828. 1-2003. Chapter 5 sets up Risk Pre-warning Evaluation Model of Inspection and Quarantine Objects Security Conditions based on Information Entropy Measures and Grey Relevance Prediction Model, and studies pre-warning according to its different level and classification. Its concrete steps are: first, to determine the comprehensive weigh by adopting Analytic Hierarchy Process Method (AHP method) and Information Entropy Measures; and then get the comprehensive evaluation value of pre-warning based on BP Prediction Model; finally to determine the specific level of pre-warning based on corrected Grey Relevance Prediction Model. Chapter 6 conducts the empirical research, takes the export plush toys as the example, screens the target conformity conditions from the background conformity conditions, and designs the adjusting single sampling inspection scheme by attributes for target conformity conditions. Chapter 7 is the summary and expectation of this paper; it gives the conclusion, the innovation points and future directions of research. The innovation points of this paper mainly include:
(1)To build an integrated model of entry-exit inspection and quarantine conformity conditions screening by applying Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Pareto Diagram;
(2) To evaluate the occurrence and severity of the entry-exit inspection and quarantine conformity conditions based on D-S (Dempster-Shafer) Evidence Theory, and evaluate the detection based on Measurement System Analysis Theory (MSA) and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA);
(3) To design the adjusting single sampling inspection scheme by attributes according to GB/T2828. 1-2003, and conduct the empirical research.
(4) To set up the risk pre-warning assessment model of the entry-exit inspection and quarantine objects security conditions based on Information Entropy Measures and corrected Grey Relevance Prediction Model, and get pre-warning value and level.
引文
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