战后美国利率政策研究
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摘要
美国经济在二战后的60多年时间里,虽然经历了多次危机的冲击,但总体上表现出较好的增长势头。是什么原因促使美国经济在战后保持良好的运行态势,始终稳居世界经济第一强国的桂冠位置呢?对此问题,国际国内许多著名的研究机构及专家学者作了大量卓有成效的研究工作,并提供了大量的研究成果。应该说这些研究成果都从某一侧面道出了美国经济良好发展的部分动因,都有其积极合理的成分,但对于战后美国利率政策对其经济发展的影响,却还较少有深入、系统的研究。本文认为,在影响美国战后经济发展的诸多因素中,我们不能忽视利率政策所起的不可或缺的重要作用。利率政策作为货币政策的重要组成部分,有着与财政政策并驾齐驱的宏观调控作用,它在宏观经济调控中的核心地位也日益突出。尤其是在20世纪90年代,美国接受“泰勒规则”实行以实际利率作为中介目标的中性化货币政策并与强势美元搭配使用,对催生以高技术、信息化为代表的“新经济”形态的平稳发展起到了至关重要的作用。本文以战后美国利率政策演变轨迹及其原因作为主线,采取历史与逻辑相统一、理论分析与实证分析相结合的研究方法,对战后美国各个阶段利率政策与其各项经济变量之间的相关性进行了理论研究与实证检验,并对战后美国利率政策对中国的借鉴与启示提出建议。本文的目的在于为美联储把利率作为调控经济的重要工具研究提供出更具体和更具说服力的理论依据,并期望能为我国利率政策改革实践提供有益的理论借鉴意义。
全文共分为四个部分进行研究。具体如下：
第一部分是导论。本部分归纳了本文研究背景,阐述了本文的研究意义,梳理了国内外的研究现状,描述了研究方法、研究内容及思路,指出了本研究的创新点及不足之处。
第二部分是第二章,也是利率政策研究的理论部分。本部分对古典利率理论、凯恩斯利率理论、货币学派利率理论及金融抑制、金融深化理论等几种主要理论的主要观点予以概括并进行述评,从而为后续各章的研究和分析奠定理论基础。
第三部分由第三、四、五章构成,主要描述战后美国利率政策演变的轨迹,分析其原因,并对其予经济发展的影响进行理论与实证研究。
关于战后美国利率政策的演变轨迹,本文将其分为四个阶段。与此相适应,关于美国战后利率政策的变化对其经济发展影响的理论与实证研究也分别在这四个阶段里进行阐述。
一是战后初期至20世纪70年代的低利率政策。从第二次世界大战结束至20世纪70年代初的绝大部分时间里,美联储一直实行建立在凯恩斯理论基础上的低利率政策,除1969年后期和1970年的大部分时间贴现率达到6%外,其余时间一直维持在4%左右的低水平。低利率政策的推行有力地促进了20世纪50、60年代美国经济的迅速增长。但到了20世纪70年代初期,随着刺激美国经济发展的有利因素逐步消失以及各种潜在矛盾的激化,低利率政策进一步恶化了业已存在的通货膨胀,导致美国消费者物价指数不断上升。物价的迅速上涨反过来又对美国经济产生更加负面的影响,加重了“滞”的程度,最终导致了美国经济20世纪70年代初期以后出现了严重的“滞胀”局面。
二是20世纪80年代初期开始的高利率政策。随着1979年10月保罗.沃尔克就任美国联邦委员会主席,美国的利率政策的指导思想开始转向以弗里德曼为主要代表的现代货币主义理论,该理论提出应该通过控制货币供应量以遏制通货膨胀并保持经济的适度增长。1979年伊朗伊斯兰革命的爆发带来的全球石油价格暴涨加剧了美国通货膨胀的预期。为了控制通货膨胀,美联储采取了大幅提高利率的措施,虽然期间特别是80年代后半期有多次回调,但总体上20世纪80年代维持了比较高的利率水平。20世纪80年代高利率政策的推行有效地遏制了通货膨胀,使得美国的通货膨胀率呈逐年下降趋势；高利率吸引大量外资流入美国,弥补了部分美国财政赤字,但也造成美元汇率上升,削弱了美国商品的出口竞争力,导致贸易逆差不断增大。
三是20世纪90年代实行盯住真实利率的中性货币政策。20世纪90年代,美联储以泰勒规则为理论基础,实行以实际利率为中介目标的中性化货币政策,即让利率水平保持中性,既不起到刺激经济也不起到抑制经济的作用,从而保证了经济能够以其自身潜在的增长率在低通胀水平的条件下实现增长。20世纪90年代的中性货币政策促进美国经济真正实现了低通胀、高就业,实现了经济增长率、失业率和通货膨胀率三者之间的均衡协调,创造了美国20世纪90年代的经济神话,远远超过了美国经济史上任何一次的经济扩张期。
四是进入21世纪以来的利率政策。20世纪90年代美联储的利率政策虽然对促成美国的“新经济”发挥了重要作用,但也催生了美国的IT泡沫。随着2000年3月纳斯达克股价的暴跌,IT泡沫开始破裂,经济随之下滑。加上当时美国经济受到国际油价大幅攀升、美元升值、利率升高以及固定资本投资萎缩等因素的影响而明显减缓。为了刺激经济,减缓经济放慢的步伐,美联储开始了大幅降息的步伐,从而为美国日后次贷危机的发生埋下了伏笔。2004年随着美国经济出现强劲增长以及对通货膨胀率不断攀升的担忧,美联储连续上调联邦基金利率水平,从而最终引发了美国次贷危机。美国次贷危机的爆发给美国经济带来了严重的负面影响；直接导致美元大幅贬值；沉重打击了美国的房地产业；重创了美国银行业,造成美国大量银行倒闭；并对世界经济产生严重冲击。
第五章为对战后美国利率政策进行实证研究。该章通过选取联邦基金利率、GDP增加值、通货膨胀率、失业率、货币供应量等经济指标,运用数学模型对联邦基金利率与GDP增加值、通货膨胀率、失业率、货币供应量等四个指标之间在不同阶段的相互影响进行模型检验,并在此基础上对模型检验结果进行相关性分析。
第四部分是第六章,主要是通过前面部分对战后美国利率政策对其经济发展影响的研究,提出一些我国利率政策值得借鉴和启示的建议。关于战后美国利率政策对我国的借鉴与启示作用主要提出以下几点：一是加快推动利率市场化进程。包括逐步完善中国人民银行的利率体系、理顺中央银行基准利率与商业银行利率之间的关系、理顺商业银行存贷款利率之间的关系、大力发展资本市场尤其是债券市场：二是完善金融市场体系,畅通利率传导机制途径。包括完善同业拆借市场、发展货币市场、改善利率政策有效传导的微观基础；三是强化中国人民银行作为中央银行独立行使利率政策的权力。包括自主制定利率政策、努力提高央行各支行机构执行利率政策水平、综合使用各种利率,增强利率政策的效果；四是利率政策的调整必须具适度性和前瞻性；五是防范我国住房抵押贷款的利率风险。包括实现住房抵押贷款利率调整周期的多样化、合理利用金融期权或期货市场来最大限度规避利率风险、利率政策的实施必须高度关注资产价格并适时控制资产价格泡沫。
在前人研究的基础上,本文主要进行了如下方面的创新：1.本文在进行实证研究时,采取的是对利率与各项经济指标的相互影响进行检验,即不仅用模型检验利率对其它几项经济指标的影响,而且增加了其它几项经济指标对利率影响的模型检验,从而使得本文对利率政策的研究更加全面；2.本文研究证实,在不同的发展阶段利率与GDP、通货膨胀、失业率、货币供应量的相互关系和作用是不一样的,因此在运用利率这一宏观调控工具时要注意不同的经济背景灵活运用；3.与同类研究相比,本文实证研究选取的数据的年限长,数据来源于美国战后至20世纪末的60多年时间资料。由于选取数据的时限长,从而有效地避免了因数据偏少而使结论有所偏差的问题,得到的结论更为可靠,能够更好地解释战后美国利率政策与各项经济指标的相关性。
The US economy has performed well for more than sixty years since the end of the World War II. What makes the long-term stability of the American economy and why the US can situate the first position of world economy since the end of World War II? A great deal of research efforts and fruitful achievements have been made by many institutions and scholars form domestic& international. All these researches have given some reasonable explanations from different aspects. But research about the role of US interest rate policy after the post-war is scarcely. Monetary policy and financial policy is the two main policy instruments on macroeconomic adjustment. As a vital part of monetary policy, interest rate policy plays a more and more important role. Especially in the late 1990s, the Fed accepted "Taylor Rule" and executed a neutral monetary policy pegged to the real interest rate, and along with a strong dollar, which brought prosperity of the "new economy" represented by high-tech, information industry. Taking the transformation of post-war American interest rate policy and its backgrounds as the main clue, adopting a history and logic study method, this dissertation makes a theoretical research and empirical examination of the correlation between the postwar American interest rate policy and several economic variables. Then some suggestions have been given to China's interest rate policy reform based on the research.
This dissertations divided into four parts, specifically as follows:
The first part is the introduction. This part summarizes the research background; demonstrates the research significance; inquires the current research at home and abroad; describes the research method, content and clue; and points out the innovations and shortcomings of this study.
The second part is the second chapter, which is also the theory part of the interest rate policy research. This part giving a review of some main interest rate theory such as the Classical theory of interest rate, the Keynes interest-rate theory, the Monetarism interest-rate policy, the Financial Repression and the Financial Deepening theory, which provides a theoretical basis of study and analysis for subsequent chapters.
The third part contains the third, fourth and fifth chapter, mainly describes the transformation and backgrounds of the US post-war interest rate policy, and makes a theory and empirical research of its impact on the economic development.
The post-war American interest rate polices transformation have been divided into four stages in this dissrtation, so the theory and empirical research of its impacts on economic development are also conducted in these four stages.
The first period is the low interest rate policy between the end of World WarⅡand the 1970s. Most of the time between the World WarⅡand the early 1970s, the Fed kept a low interest rate at 4% except in the late 1969 and 1970 (with a 6% rate) on the basis of the Keynesian theory. The implementation of low interest rate policy effectively invokes a rapid growth of America economy in the 1950s and 1960s. But in the 1970s, the sound stimulations of American economy gradually disappeared, and the other potential conflicts came to burst. Then the low interest rate policy deteriorated the inflation, and the rising consumer price index brought more negative effects on the American economy, which further aggravated the "stagnant" degree, and finally led the American economy into a serious "stagflation" situation in the 1970s.
The second period is the high interest rates policy in the 1980s. The guiding ideology of American interest rate policy began to turn to modern monetarism theory represented by Friedman in 1979, this theory insisted that the money supply should be controlled to curb inflation and ensure the economic growth was moderate. In 1979, the global oil prices surging caused by Islamic revolution in Iran deteriorated America inflation expectations. In order to control inflation, the Fed raised the interest rate sharply and maintained it in a high level throughout the 1980s. The implementation of high interest rate policy in1980s has curbed inflation effectively and reduced it year by year. The high interest rate attracted foreign capital inflow into American and offset part of its deficits, but also caused the exchange rate rise, which weakened the export competitiveness of the US goods and resulted in the increasing trade deficit.
The third period is the neutral monetary policy pegged to the real interest rate in 1990s. The Fed adopted the neutral monetary policy pegged to the real interest rate based on "Taylor rule" in 1990s. Neither to stimulate the economy nor to inhibit it, that ensured the economy to develop on its potential growth rate in a low level of inflation. The implementation of the neutral monetary policy produced the tech bubble, made the American economy realizing a low inflation and high employment, created the economic myths in 1990s far more than any of the American economic expanding history.
The forth period is the low interest rate policy in the early 2000s. The low interest rate policy in 1990s not only brought prosperity of the "new economy", but also created a big IT bubble. With the slump of NASDAQ composite index, the IT bubble began to burst, the economy growth turned down. The American economy slowed significantly caused by the soaring oil prices, the dollar appreciation, the interest rate rising and the fixed capital investment atrophy in the beginning of the 21st century. In order to stimulate the economy, the Fed cut the interest rate sharply, which finally produced the later sub-prime crisis. In 2004, the Fed rose the federal funds rate continuously because of the strong worries on the inflation, which trigged the American sub-prime mortgage crisis, resulted in the fail of U.S real estate industry and bank system, and shocked the world economy heavily.
The fifth chapter is the empirical research on post-war American interest rate policy. This chapter makes a periodical model examination of the interactions of four economic indexes including the federal funds rate, GDP value, inflation, unemployment and the money supply, and the correlation analysis are given based on the examination result.
The fourth part is the sixth chapter.This part puts forward some suggestion for China interest-rate policy reform based on the previous research of post-war American interest rates transformation. The lessons provided by the American interest rate policy are mainly manifested in the following aspects:The first is to promote marketization of interest rate. Including gradually improve the efficiency of the central bank (the People's Bank of China) interest rate system; rationalize the relationship between the benchmark interest rates and market interest rates; develop capital market vigorously, especially the bond market. The Second is to complete the financial market system. Including complete rate mechanism; perfect the inter-bank market; develop the money market and improve the microeconomic foundation of interest-rate policy. The third is to strengthen the independency of the People's Bank of China. Including make the interest rate policy independently, improve the execution capacity of its branch, use comprehensive rates to enhance the effect. The fourth is to adjust interest rate suitably. The fifth is to prevent mortgage interest rate risk. Including enriches the means of rate adjustment; develop options or futures market; adjust timely to control asset price bubbles.
On the basis of previous scholars' studies, this dissertation made the innovation in the following aspects:1.This dissertation made a mutual model examination between the interest rate and other several economic varieties, not only examine the interest rate influence to the economic varieties, but also examine the economic varieties impact on the interest rate, which provided a more comprehensive research.2. This dissertation testified that the relation and mutual influence of interest rate and GDP, inflation rate, unemployment rate, monetary supply are quite different in specific stages, so when applying the interest rate to adjust economy, the different economic background should be noticed.3. Compared with some similar researches, this dissertation choused a relative longer date period that covered the end of the World WarⅡto the end of the 20th century. Because the selected data is quite long that effectively avoid deviation problems due to fewer data, and the conclusion is more reliable, then the correlation between the post-war American interest rate policy and the other economic indexes are better explained.
全文共分为四个部分进行研究。具体如下：
第一部分是导论。本部分归纳了本文研究背景,阐述了本文的研究意义,梳理了国内外的研究现状,描述了研究方法、研究内容及思路,指出了本研究的创新点及不足之处。
第二部分是第二章,也是利率政策研究的理论部分。本部分对古典利率理论、凯恩斯利率理论、货币学派利率理论及金融抑制、金融深化理论等几种主要理论的主要观点予以概括并进行述评,从而为后续各章的研究和分析奠定理论基础。
第三部分由第三、四、五章构成,主要描述战后美国利率政策演变的轨迹,分析其原因,并对其予经济发展的影响进行理论与实证研究。
关于战后美国利率政策的演变轨迹,本文将其分为四个阶段。与此相适应,关于美国战后利率政策的变化对其经济发展影响的理论与实证研究也分别在这四个阶段里进行阐述。
一是战后初期至20世纪70年代的低利率政策。从第二次世界大战结束至20世纪70年代初的绝大部分时间里,美联储一直实行建立在凯恩斯理论基础上的低利率政策,除1969年后期和1970年的大部分时间贴现率达到6%外,其余时间一直维持在4%左右的低水平。低利率政策的推行有力地促进了20世纪50、60年代美国经济的迅速增长。但到了20世纪70年代初期,随着刺激美国经济发展的有利因素逐步消失以及各种潜在矛盾的激化,低利率政策进一步恶化了业已存在的通货膨胀,导致美国消费者物价指数不断上升。物价的迅速上涨反过来又对美国经济产生更加负面的影响,加重了“滞”的程度,最终导致了美国经济20世纪70年代初期以后出现了严重的“滞胀”局面。
二是20世纪80年代初期开始的高利率政策。随着1979年10月保罗.沃尔克就任美国联邦委员会主席,美国的利率政策的指导思想开始转向以弗里德曼为主要代表的现代货币主义理论,该理论提出应该通过控制货币供应量以遏制通货膨胀并保持经济的适度增长。1979年伊朗伊斯兰革命的爆发带来的全球石油价格暴涨加剧了美国通货膨胀的预期。为了控制通货膨胀,美联储采取了大幅提高利率的措施,虽然期间特别是80年代后半期有多次回调,但总体上20世纪80年代维持了比较高的利率水平。20世纪80年代高利率政策的推行有效地遏制了通货膨胀,使得美国的通货膨胀率呈逐年下降趋势；高利率吸引大量外资流入美国,弥补了部分美国财政赤字,但也造成美元汇率上升,削弱了美国商品的出口竞争力,导致贸易逆差不断增大。
三是20世纪90年代实行盯住真实利率的中性货币政策。20世纪90年代,美联储以泰勒规则为理论基础,实行以实际利率为中介目标的中性化货币政策,即让利率水平保持中性,既不起到刺激经济也不起到抑制经济的作用,从而保证了经济能够以其自身潜在的增长率在低通胀水平的条件下实现增长。20世纪90年代的中性货币政策促进美国经济真正实现了低通胀、高就业,实现了经济增长率、失业率和通货膨胀率三者之间的均衡协调,创造了美国20世纪90年代的经济神话,远远超过了美国经济史上任何一次的经济扩张期。
四是进入21世纪以来的利率政策。20世纪90年代美联储的利率政策虽然对促成美国的“新经济”发挥了重要作用,但也催生了美国的IT泡沫。随着2000年3月纳斯达克股价的暴跌,IT泡沫开始破裂,经济随之下滑。加上当时美国经济受到国际油价大幅攀升、美元升值、利率升高以及固定资本投资萎缩等因素的影响而明显减缓。为了刺激经济,减缓经济放慢的步伐,美联储开始了大幅降息的步伐,从而为美国日后次贷危机的发生埋下了伏笔。2004年随着美国经济出现强劲增长以及对通货膨胀率不断攀升的担忧,美联储连续上调联邦基金利率水平,从而最终引发了美国次贷危机。美国次贷危机的爆发给美国经济带来了严重的负面影响；直接导致美元大幅贬值；沉重打击了美国的房地产业；重创了美国银行业,造成美国大量银行倒闭；并对世界经济产生严重冲击。
第五章为对战后美国利率政策进行实证研究。该章通过选取联邦基金利率、GDP增加值、通货膨胀率、失业率、货币供应量等经济指标,运用数学模型对联邦基金利率与GDP增加值、通货膨胀率、失业率、货币供应量等四个指标之间在不同阶段的相互影响进行模型检验,并在此基础上对模型检验结果进行相关性分析。
第四部分是第六章,主要是通过前面部分对战后美国利率政策对其经济发展影响的研究,提出一些我国利率政策值得借鉴和启示的建议。关于战后美国利率政策对我国的借鉴与启示作用主要提出以下几点：一是加快推动利率市场化进程。包括逐步完善中国人民银行的利率体系、理顺中央银行基准利率与商业银行利率之间的关系、理顺商业银行存贷款利率之间的关系、大力发展资本市场尤其是债券市场：二是完善金融市场体系,畅通利率传导机制途径。包括完善同业拆借市场、发展货币市场、改善利率政策有效传导的微观基础；三是强化中国人民银行作为中央银行独立行使利率政策的权力。包括自主制定利率政策、努力提高央行各支行机构执行利率政策水平、综合使用各种利率,增强利率政策的效果；四是利率政策的调整必须具适度性和前瞻性；五是防范我国住房抵押贷款的利率风险。包括实现住房抵押贷款利率调整周期的多样化、合理利用金融期权或期货市场来最大限度规避利率风险、利率政策的实施必须高度关注资产价格并适时控制资产价格泡沫。
在前人研究的基础上,本文主要进行了如下方面的创新：1.本文在进行实证研究时,采取的是对利率与各项经济指标的相互影响进行检验,即不仅用模型检验利率对其它几项经济指标的影响,而且增加了其它几项经济指标对利率影响的模型检验,从而使得本文对利率政策的研究更加全面；2.本文研究证实,在不同的发展阶段利率与GDP、通货膨胀、失业率、货币供应量的相互关系和作用是不一样的,因此在运用利率这一宏观调控工具时要注意不同的经济背景灵活运用；3.与同类研究相比,本文实证研究选取的数据的年限长,数据来源于美国战后至20世纪末的60多年时间资料。由于选取数据的时限长,从而有效地避免了因数据偏少而使结论有所偏差的问题,得到的结论更为可靠,能够更好地解释战后美国利率政策与各项经济指标的相关性。
The US economy has performed well for more than sixty years since the end of the World War II. What makes the long-term stability of the American economy and why the US can situate the first position of world economy since the end of World War II? A great deal of research efforts and fruitful achievements have been made by many institutions and scholars form domestic& international. All these researches have given some reasonable explanations from different aspects. But research about the role of US interest rate policy after the post-war is scarcely. Monetary policy and financial policy is the two main policy instruments on macroeconomic adjustment. As a vital part of monetary policy, interest rate policy plays a more and more important role. Especially in the late 1990s, the Fed accepted "Taylor Rule" and executed a neutral monetary policy pegged to the real interest rate, and along with a strong dollar, which brought prosperity of the "new economy" represented by high-tech, information industry. Taking the transformation of post-war American interest rate policy and its backgrounds as the main clue, adopting a history and logic study method, this dissertation makes a theoretical research and empirical examination of the correlation between the postwar American interest rate policy and several economic variables. Then some suggestions have been given to China's interest rate policy reform based on the research.
This dissertations divided into four parts, specifically as follows:
The first part is the introduction. This part summarizes the research background; demonstrates the research significance; inquires the current research at home and abroad; describes the research method, content and clue; and points out the innovations and shortcomings of this study.
The second part is the second chapter, which is also the theory part of the interest rate policy research. This part giving a review of some main interest rate theory such as the Classical theory of interest rate, the Keynes interest-rate theory, the Monetarism interest-rate policy, the Financial Repression and the Financial Deepening theory, which provides a theoretical basis of study and analysis for subsequent chapters.
The third part contains the third, fourth and fifth chapter, mainly describes the transformation and backgrounds of the US post-war interest rate policy, and makes a theory and empirical research of its impact on the economic development.
The post-war American interest rate polices transformation have been divided into four stages in this dissrtation, so the theory and empirical research of its impacts on economic development are also conducted in these four stages.
The first period is the low interest rate policy between the end of World WarⅡand the 1970s. Most of the time between the World WarⅡand the early 1970s, the Fed kept a low interest rate at 4% except in the late 1969 and 1970 (with a 6% rate) on the basis of the Keynesian theory. The implementation of low interest rate policy effectively invokes a rapid growth of America economy in the 1950s and 1960s. But in the 1970s, the sound stimulations of American economy gradually disappeared, and the other potential conflicts came to burst. Then the low interest rate policy deteriorated the inflation, and the rising consumer price index brought more negative effects on the American economy, which further aggravated the "stagnant" degree, and finally led the American economy into a serious "stagflation" situation in the 1970s.
The second period is the high interest rates policy in the 1980s. The guiding ideology of American interest rate policy began to turn to modern monetarism theory represented by Friedman in 1979, this theory insisted that the money supply should be controlled to curb inflation and ensure the economic growth was moderate. In 1979, the global oil prices surging caused by Islamic revolution in Iran deteriorated America inflation expectations. In order to control inflation, the Fed raised the interest rate sharply and maintained it in a high level throughout the 1980s. The implementation of high interest rate policy in1980s has curbed inflation effectively and reduced it year by year. The high interest rate attracted foreign capital inflow into American and offset part of its deficits, but also caused the exchange rate rise, which weakened the export competitiveness of the US goods and resulted in the increasing trade deficit.
The third period is the neutral monetary policy pegged to the real interest rate in 1990s. The Fed adopted the neutral monetary policy pegged to the real interest rate based on "Taylor rule" in 1990s. Neither to stimulate the economy nor to inhibit it, that ensured the economy to develop on its potential growth rate in a low level of inflation. The implementation of the neutral monetary policy produced the tech bubble, made the American economy realizing a low inflation and high employment, created the economic myths in 1990s far more than any of the American economic expanding history.
The forth period is the low interest rate policy in the early 2000s. The low interest rate policy in 1990s not only brought prosperity of the "new economy", but also created a big IT bubble. With the slump of NASDAQ composite index, the IT bubble began to burst, the economy growth turned down. The American economy slowed significantly caused by the soaring oil prices, the dollar appreciation, the interest rate rising and the fixed capital investment atrophy in the beginning of the 21st century. In order to stimulate the economy, the Fed cut the interest rate sharply, which finally produced the later sub-prime crisis. In 2004, the Fed rose the federal funds rate continuously because of the strong worries on the inflation, which trigged the American sub-prime mortgage crisis, resulted in the fail of U.S real estate industry and bank system, and shocked the world economy heavily.
The fifth chapter is the empirical research on post-war American interest rate policy. This chapter makes a periodical model examination of the interactions of four economic indexes including the federal funds rate, GDP value, inflation, unemployment and the money supply, and the correlation analysis are given based on the examination result.
The fourth part is the sixth chapter.This part puts forward some suggestion for China interest-rate policy reform based on the previous research of post-war American interest rates transformation. The lessons provided by the American interest rate policy are mainly manifested in the following aspects:The first is to promote marketization of interest rate. Including gradually improve the efficiency of the central bank (the People's Bank of China) interest rate system; rationalize the relationship between the benchmark interest rates and market interest rates; develop capital market vigorously, especially the bond market. The Second is to complete the financial market system. Including complete rate mechanism; perfect the inter-bank market; develop the money market and improve the microeconomic foundation of interest-rate policy. The third is to strengthen the independency of the People's Bank of China. Including make the interest rate policy independently, improve the execution capacity of its branch, use comprehensive rates to enhance the effect. The fourth is to adjust interest rate suitably. The fifth is to prevent mortgage interest rate risk. Including enriches the means of rate adjustment; develop options or futures market; adjust timely to control asset price bubbles.
On the basis of previous scholars' studies, this dissertation made the innovation in the following aspects:1.This dissertation made a mutual model examination between the interest rate and other several economic varieties, not only examine the interest rate influence to the economic varieties, but also examine the economic varieties impact on the interest rate, which provided a more comprehensive research.2. This dissertation testified that the relation and mutual influence of interest rate and GDP, inflation rate, unemployment rate, monetary supply are quite different in specific stages, so when applying the interest rate to adjust economy, the different economic background should be noticed.3. Compared with some similar researches, this dissertation choused a relative longer date period that covered the end of the World WarⅡto the end of the 20th century. Because the selected data is quite long that effectively avoid deviation problems due to fewer data, and the conclusion is more reliable, then the correlation between the post-war American interest rate policy and the other economic indexes are better explained.
引文
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