我国风险投资的决策方法研究
摘要
本文综合运用政治经济学、金融学、产业经济学等学科的理论与方法,在分析国内外相关研究成果和实践经验的基础上,探讨了风险投资的决策指标体系和测评方法,提出了若干新的概念、原理和方法。论文内容可以归结为三个方面:
1.风险投资决策方法研究的理论基础。论文在文献回顾基础上,对风险投资、投资决策等概念进行界定,对风险投资的特点和运作过程进行总结,提出本研究的理论支持;同时归纳分析了国内外关于风险投资决策方法的研究,指出了现有研究的不足。
2.国际经验考察和我国风险投资决策现状分析。在介绍和比较国际上具有代表性的风险投资决策模式之后,描述和分析我国风险投资的发展历程、现状、影响风险投资的因素、现行的决策方法,指出我国尚缺少一种能够把理论的指导、有力的数据支持和可操作性三者合理结合在一起的风险投资决策方法。
3.构建风险投资的决策指标体系和测评模型。借鉴风险管理理论,重新设计投资决策指标体系,利用层次分析法在数据支持下确定各指标的权重;借鉴企业信用评级理论、模糊数学理论和前人的研究成果,提出风险企业资信评级模型和模糊综合分析法,实现了决策方法对于风险企业的整体分析和局部分析相结合,有助于制定后期的管理方案。最后对决策方法进行了实际验证。
The success of venture capital (VC for short) will boost social development greatly, and it will promote the technological innovation, support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, boost economic growth, and help the further consummation of market economy system. However, VC's success relies on the reasonable investment decision heavily, this research is aimed to find the venture capital which is suitable and practical to present situation in china.
Looked over the domestic and foreign related VC decision-making literature, I make new definition of meaning ,the operation process, decision-making approach and evaluation standard, which is one of innovation of this research. VC is a kind of investment process, which means devote capital to the exploitation of high technology and the R&D of production which contain high failure risk, with the purpose of promoting the commercialization, industrialization of high technology production as soon as possible, to obtain high capital income, VC Has the characteristic of long-term, high risk and high profitability, compositionality, equity and specialization and so on. VC’s operation contains three stages: fund procurement, investment decision-making, management and withdrawal, and the investment decision-making is the core of the entire operation, which will decide success or failure of VC. Therefore, find a scientific, practical, theory supporting decision-making approach, is the most important problem which needs to solved when we promote VC.
VC is a very integrative and complex investment process, so VC's decision-making process is more special than the ordinary investment: Firstly, VC focuses on the emerging small and medium-sized technology enterprise, but these enterprises usually face the problem of how to exploit the market or even continue business, and there isn’t many financial data and fixed asset taken as basis of evaluation, and when we use ordinary investment appraisal method ,there will be some error; Secondly, VC will attach more importance to the future development potential and individual competence of entrepreneur, which will result in many factors which are hard to quantify , and it is very challenging to quantify qualitative factor, therefore, ordinary investment decision method can not solve these problems; Thirdly, in order to reduce the long-term investment risk, VC not only need to evaluate the quality of the project in the decision-making process ,but also need to work out the following management plan according to the management situation in present and development in the future.
At present, in international academic area, regarding VC decision-making, experiential and empirical research method is usually adopted, The representative research result is that American economists Tyebjee and Bruno set up American risk project evaluation model by questionnaire survey and factor analysis method in 1984, which is based on elaborating the appraisal criterion; There are several VC investment decision-making models in practice, which are sorted by country or by area. But considering the particularity of VC and the deference of countries, there hasn’t been any kind of finding or experience that can be applied to all the countries. Moreover, the quantitative research of qualitative indicator is insufficient in the world, because in international academic area, economist often adopt AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process)approach to solve the problems about venture capitalist making investment decision, but the method pays more attention to the indicator system and qualitative discussion of the project, and neglects the quantitative research of evaluating indicator.
VC appears in china late, but is developing fast, and the supporting environment, such as related laws and regulations, has been improved substantially, however, regardless of theory studies or practice, the decision-making approach of VC is still on the start stage in china, there hasn’t been a perfect set of indicator system and test way, furthermore, due to the great difficulty in investigation, authoritative statistical data is also lacked, hence we should pay more effort in the study of VC decision-making approach. I utilized Chinese library of China National Knowledge Internet(CNKI for short), define“VC decision-making”as searches, set the title as the searches , From 1979 to 2006, I find 101 articles in CNKI, and many concepts in these articles are fuzzy, and the theory is out of practice. In the meantime, according to the actual situation, VC in China lacks systemic decision-making approach supported by theory which is suitable to reality. In summary, lag in development and study of decision-making has restricted the development of VC greatly.
I analyze and study the representative international VC decision-making model, and according to our national situation and existing statistical data, discuss emphasis of enterprise evaluation in different phase and the difference of outcome. Then set up decision-making indicator system and evaluation method of VC, which is the core achievement of this article.
This research set up an indicator system, which is based on the system risk (environmental factor) and the non-system risk (enterprise quality, enterprise development potential), define 14 second level indicators, 43 third level indicators, then utilize AHP to confirm the proportion of the indicators. This indicator system contains the second innovation of the study: take the risk management theory for reference, sort the indicators by the system risk and non-system risk, and uses a set of indicator system for different period's enterprise, has the merit of clear, simple, unification and comprehensive, which embodies in the following two aspects: firstly, according to the established economy environment, when we choose the enterprises in the same industry, we just need to start with non-system risk, so we can reduce the decision-making procedure, accelerate evaluation pace, and formalize the evaluation of venture capitalist; secondly, the indicator system attach more importance to the potential of enterprise and look on it as the first level indicator, which is more suitable to the characteristic of high tech enterprise and VC, and will decrease the indicator difference of enterprises which are in different development phase, thus achieves indicator system's unity and judgment briefness.
In this paper, the methods of assessment references on corporate credit rating, mathematical theory and fuzzy basis, the results of previous studies. The system includes VC credit rating model (six-second) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Analysis. The two sides are turning around an overall evaluation. To a certain extent it can be an alternative, a separate use. And we can use examples to prove the method. The evaluation methodology of this study includes the third innovation in my article: Taking the subjective nature of venture capitalists into account, the method based on the overall analysis and analysis of the combination of qualitative and quantitative indicators, straightforward and accurate combination of objective and contributes to the development of the latter part of the management program.
In this paper I use Invengo information technology Co., Ltd in Shenzhen, P. R. China to get the outcome of the assessment . It proved that the outcome of this paper is reasonable and practical.
The practical significance of the decision can be summed up in the following two: First, it can help investors not only make and improve the quality of decision-making, but also reduce decision time from the theoretical horizon and professional perspective. It also helps new VC investor reduce learning time. Secondly, it is a self-diagnosis and self-enhancement tools for small and medium enterprises. The academic significance of this study is from the microeconomic and macroeconomic perspective, combining the theory and practice, to build up the decision-making system. I hope to attract other scholars to the attention of this direction for better solutions.
1.风险投资决策方法研究的理论基础。论文在文献回顾基础上,对风险投资、投资决策等概念进行界定,对风险投资的特点和运作过程进行总结,提出本研究的理论支持;同时归纳分析了国内外关于风险投资决策方法的研究,指出了现有研究的不足。
2.国际经验考察和我国风险投资决策现状分析。在介绍和比较国际上具有代表性的风险投资决策模式之后,描述和分析我国风险投资的发展历程、现状、影响风险投资的因素、现行的决策方法,指出我国尚缺少一种能够把理论的指导、有力的数据支持和可操作性三者合理结合在一起的风险投资决策方法。
3.构建风险投资的决策指标体系和测评模型。借鉴风险管理理论,重新设计投资决策指标体系,利用层次分析法在数据支持下确定各指标的权重;借鉴企业信用评级理论、模糊数学理论和前人的研究成果,提出风险企业资信评级模型和模糊综合分析法,实现了决策方法对于风险企业的整体分析和局部分析相结合,有助于制定后期的管理方案。最后对决策方法进行了实际验证。
The success of venture capital (VC for short) will boost social development greatly, and it will promote the technological innovation, support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, boost economic growth, and help the further consummation of market economy system. However, VC's success relies on the reasonable investment decision heavily, this research is aimed to find the venture capital which is suitable and practical to present situation in china.
Looked over the domestic and foreign related VC decision-making literature, I make new definition of meaning ,the operation process, decision-making approach and evaluation standard, which is one of innovation of this research. VC is a kind of investment process, which means devote capital to the exploitation of high technology and the R&D of production which contain high failure risk, with the purpose of promoting the commercialization, industrialization of high technology production as soon as possible, to obtain high capital income, VC Has the characteristic of long-term, high risk and high profitability, compositionality, equity and specialization and so on. VC’s operation contains three stages: fund procurement, investment decision-making, management and withdrawal, and the investment decision-making is the core of the entire operation, which will decide success or failure of VC. Therefore, find a scientific, practical, theory supporting decision-making approach, is the most important problem which needs to solved when we promote VC.
VC is a very integrative and complex investment process, so VC's decision-making process is more special than the ordinary investment: Firstly, VC focuses on the emerging small and medium-sized technology enterprise, but these enterprises usually face the problem of how to exploit the market or even continue business, and there isn’t many financial data and fixed asset taken as basis of evaluation, and when we use ordinary investment appraisal method ,there will be some error; Secondly, VC will attach more importance to the future development potential and individual competence of entrepreneur, which will result in many factors which are hard to quantify , and it is very challenging to quantify qualitative factor, therefore, ordinary investment decision method can not solve these problems; Thirdly, in order to reduce the long-term investment risk, VC not only need to evaluate the quality of the project in the decision-making process ,but also need to work out the following management plan according to the management situation in present and development in the future.
At present, in international academic area, regarding VC decision-making, experiential and empirical research method is usually adopted, The representative research result is that American economists Tyebjee and Bruno set up American risk project evaluation model by questionnaire survey and factor analysis method in 1984, which is based on elaborating the appraisal criterion; There are several VC investment decision-making models in practice, which are sorted by country or by area. But considering the particularity of VC and the deference of countries, there hasn’t been any kind of finding or experience that can be applied to all the countries. Moreover, the quantitative research of qualitative indicator is insufficient in the world, because in international academic area, economist often adopt AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process)approach to solve the problems about venture capitalist making investment decision, but the method pays more attention to the indicator system and qualitative discussion of the project, and neglects the quantitative research of evaluating indicator.
VC appears in china late, but is developing fast, and the supporting environment, such as related laws and regulations, has been improved substantially, however, regardless of theory studies or practice, the decision-making approach of VC is still on the start stage in china, there hasn’t been a perfect set of indicator system and test way, furthermore, due to the great difficulty in investigation, authoritative statistical data is also lacked, hence we should pay more effort in the study of VC decision-making approach. I utilized Chinese library of China National Knowledge Internet(CNKI for short), define“VC decision-making”as searches, set the title as the searches , From 1979 to 2006, I find 101 articles in CNKI, and many concepts in these articles are fuzzy, and the theory is out of practice. In the meantime, according to the actual situation, VC in China lacks systemic decision-making approach supported by theory which is suitable to reality. In summary, lag in development and study of decision-making has restricted the development of VC greatly.
I analyze and study the representative international VC decision-making model, and according to our national situation and existing statistical data, discuss emphasis of enterprise evaluation in different phase and the difference of outcome. Then set up decision-making indicator system and evaluation method of VC, which is the core achievement of this article.
This research set up an indicator system, which is based on the system risk (environmental factor) and the non-system risk (enterprise quality, enterprise development potential), define 14 second level indicators, 43 third level indicators, then utilize AHP to confirm the proportion of the indicators. This indicator system contains the second innovation of the study: take the risk management theory for reference, sort the indicators by the system risk and non-system risk, and uses a set of indicator system for different period's enterprise, has the merit of clear, simple, unification and comprehensive, which embodies in the following two aspects: firstly, according to the established economy environment, when we choose the enterprises in the same industry, we just need to start with non-system risk, so we can reduce the decision-making procedure, accelerate evaluation pace, and formalize the evaluation of venture capitalist; secondly, the indicator system attach more importance to the potential of enterprise and look on it as the first level indicator, which is more suitable to the characteristic of high tech enterprise and VC, and will decrease the indicator difference of enterprises which are in different development phase, thus achieves indicator system's unity and judgment briefness.
In this paper, the methods of assessment references on corporate credit rating, mathematical theory and fuzzy basis, the results of previous studies. The system includes VC credit rating model (six-second) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Analysis. The two sides are turning around an overall evaluation. To a certain extent it can be an alternative, a separate use. And we can use examples to prove the method. The evaluation methodology of this study includes the third innovation in my article: Taking the subjective nature of venture capitalists into account, the method based on the overall analysis and analysis of the combination of qualitative and quantitative indicators, straightforward and accurate combination of objective and contributes to the development of the latter part of the management program.
In this paper I use Invengo information technology Co., Ltd in Shenzhen, P. R. China to get the outcome of the assessment . It proved that the outcome of this paper is reasonable and practical.
The practical significance of the decision can be summed up in the following two: First, it can help investors not only make and improve the quality of decision-making, but also reduce decision time from the theoretical horizon and professional perspective. It also helps new VC investor reduce learning time. Secondly, it is a self-diagnosis and self-enhancement tools for small and medium enterprises. The academic significance of this study is from the microeconomic and macroeconomic perspective, combining the theory and practice, to build up the decision-making system. I hope to attract other scholars to the attention of this direction for better solutions.
引文
① 姜淑霞:《创业板为风险投资带来历史性机遇》,载《上海证券报》,2008(03/26)。
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