影响引导性风险投资决策的关键因素研究
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摘要
当前,在风险投资领域,政府角色正由主导性向引导性转变,引导性风险投资已逐渐成为风险投资主流模式,并被大力推广及普及,为我国的高科技产业发展及转化做出了重要贡献。但在快速发展的同时,引导性风险投资也面临着诸多障碍与难题。其中,能否保证在决策过程中对项目进行客观合理的评价,将资本投向最具潜力并符合产业发展需要的企业,减小决策的失误率,是当前的主要问题之一。因此,引导性风险投资决策关键影响因素的研究具有重要意义。本文通过理论与现状的研究及决策过程的分析,运用专家调查法及问卷研究,对其关键影响因素进行了分类并做以详细解释,同时,运用层次分析法对各个关键因素进行定量分析确定其重要性相对权重,从而总结出目前各因素间关系及其对决策的影响力,为政府、风险投资机构及风险企业在项目决策或创业选择上提供了理论依据,并对未来学者在该方面的研究提供一定的理论基础。
Since Chinese Political Consultative Conference put forward its first proposal "on the development of Chinese venture capital business " in 1998, Venture capital industry began developing rapidly and the theory and practice have been improved, which has made a significant contribution to the transformation of Chinese scientific and technological achievements and promote high-tech industry development. After the short period of the exploration, the guided-venture capital is considered the best mode of all under the Chinese investment environment, which will become the main mode in future.
The first chapter introduces the research purpose, meaning and method and discusses the importance of the key factors about the decisions of the led-venture capital. The second and third chapter introduces the related researches on the venture capital decision-making and the current condition of the led-venture capital in China. Currently, the venture capital industry appears more prominent features. Its prospects, capital and project size are increasing year by year. More and more social capital involved in the venture capital industry under the guiding of government capital. The government turns its role from the leading to the guiding and reduces intervention of the decision-making and operation in the process. In recent years, the government gradually improves its guidance ability, which has mobilized the enthusiasm of private capital. However, there are still many problems to be solved. Apparent differences exist among different regions and capital support is weak for SMEs and so on. These problems affect the success of the decision-making of guided-venture capital.
The forth chapter of this paper analyses the decision-making process of guided-venture capital in order to get the decision-making process model. Firstly, the paper explains what the decision-making is? It means that venture capital investors determine whether to invest according to the their needs and investment preferences. There are five decision-making principles: prudent, forward-looking, segmentation, comprehension and oriented. The decision-making process mainly includes raising capital, project selection and contract negotiation. In the stage of raising capital, investment capital mainly come from government, large enterprises, banks, insurance companies, social and public funds, bank holding companies, foreign investors and wealthy individuals and so on. All types of capital don’t necessarily invest initially except the government capital. There are two general investment ways for government. One way is that government invests in the venture capital companies. The other way is that government establishes venture capital guided-funds. The latter has a higher risk. The stage of project selection includes project acquisition, rapid screening, preliminary review and due diligence. At present, the main project source of guided-venture capital are government departments, universities, media, intermediaries, project owner, other investors, banks, friends, conferences and so on. In the stage of rapid screening, the work mainly includes browsing the business play summaries of projects. Whether the projects have the investment principles is the most important. In the stage of preliminary review, the business plans will be browsed carefully in order to understand the quality of the projects, for example, the level of expected risk, return and management team, technical content and market condition. After this session, the decision-makers will generally talk with the short listed entrepreneurs face to face in order to know more about the company. Then is the stage of due diligence. The decision-makers will further test the authenticity of the business plans and find more information about the condition of the company or further understand the known information. They will take methods of collection, interview and verification. Then, in the stage of contract negotiation, both sides need to consult and consensus and sign the legal documents by the help of lawyers.
The fifth chapter of this paper selects and classifies the key factors of decision of the guided-venture capital. There are about five kinds of factors: macroeconomic environment, management team, finance, market and technology, industry and enterprise. They respectively include economic development, integrated management capabilities, team cohesion, profitability, capital structure, market prospects, advanced and unique technology, corporate governance structure and other factors. Then the paper analyses these factors detailed. After that, the paper analyses the data of the questionnaires by the method of AHP. At last, the paper gets several conclusions. Firstly, the market and technology is the most important for the decision-making of guided-venture capital. The management team has been more and more important. Finance is the base of enterprise operation. Industry and enterprise and macroeconomic environment are the least important factors. Among these kinds of factors, comprehensive capacity of manager is the core of the whole management team and it is more important than the technology. Profitability and capital structure is the core of financial factors. In addition, the characteristics of enterprise products and financial feasibility and reliability are referred in a large propitiation of questionnaires.
Though there are many problems on the development road of guided-venture capital, decision-making mechanism is gradually being perfected. We can believe that more and more entrepreneurs will get capital supports and guided-venture capital industry will have a bright future under the efforts of government, venture capital companies, venture enterprises and the whole society.
Since Chinese Political Consultative Conference put forward its first proposal "on the development of Chinese venture capital business " in 1998, Venture capital industry began developing rapidly and the theory and practice have been improved, which has made a significant contribution to the transformation of Chinese scientific and technological achievements and promote high-tech industry development. After the short period of the exploration, the guided-venture capital is considered the best mode of all under the Chinese investment environment, which will become the main mode in future.
The first chapter introduces the research purpose, meaning and method and discusses the importance of the key factors about the decisions of the led-venture capital. The second and third chapter introduces the related researches on the venture capital decision-making and the current condition of the led-venture capital in China. Currently, the venture capital industry appears more prominent features. Its prospects, capital and project size are increasing year by year. More and more social capital involved in the venture capital industry under the guiding of government capital. The government turns its role from the leading to the guiding and reduces intervention of the decision-making and operation in the process. In recent years, the government gradually improves its guidance ability, which has mobilized the enthusiasm of private capital. However, there are still many problems to be solved. Apparent differences exist among different regions and capital support is weak for SMEs and so on. These problems affect the success of the decision-making of guided-venture capital.
The forth chapter of this paper analyses the decision-making process of guided-venture capital in order to get the decision-making process model. Firstly, the paper explains what the decision-making is? It means that venture capital investors determine whether to invest according to the their needs and investment preferences. There are five decision-making principles: prudent, forward-looking, segmentation, comprehension and oriented. The decision-making process mainly includes raising capital, project selection and contract negotiation. In the stage of raising capital, investment capital mainly come from government, large enterprises, banks, insurance companies, social and public funds, bank holding companies, foreign investors and wealthy individuals and so on. All types of capital don’t necessarily invest initially except the government capital. There are two general investment ways for government. One way is that government invests in the venture capital companies. The other way is that government establishes venture capital guided-funds. The latter has a higher risk. The stage of project selection includes project acquisition, rapid screening, preliminary review and due diligence. At present, the main project source of guided-venture capital are government departments, universities, media, intermediaries, project owner, other investors, banks, friends, conferences and so on. In the stage of rapid screening, the work mainly includes browsing the business play summaries of projects. Whether the projects have the investment principles is the most important. In the stage of preliminary review, the business plans will be browsed carefully in order to understand the quality of the projects, for example, the level of expected risk, return and management team, technical content and market condition. After this session, the decision-makers will generally talk with the short listed entrepreneurs face to face in order to know more about the company. Then is the stage of due diligence. The decision-makers will further test the authenticity of the business plans and find more information about the condition of the company or further understand the known information. They will take methods of collection, interview and verification. Then, in the stage of contract negotiation, both sides need to consult and consensus and sign the legal documents by the help of lawyers.
The fifth chapter of this paper selects and classifies the key factors of decision of the guided-venture capital. There are about five kinds of factors: macroeconomic environment, management team, finance, market and technology, industry and enterprise. They respectively include economic development, integrated management capabilities, team cohesion, profitability, capital structure, market prospects, advanced and unique technology, corporate governance structure and other factors. Then the paper analyses these factors detailed. After that, the paper analyses the data of the questionnaires by the method of AHP. At last, the paper gets several conclusions. Firstly, the market and technology is the most important for the decision-making of guided-venture capital. The management team has been more and more important. Finance is the base of enterprise operation. Industry and enterprise and macroeconomic environment are the least important factors. Among these kinds of factors, comprehensive capacity of manager is the core of the whole management team and it is more important than the technology. Profitability and capital structure is the core of financial factors. In addition, the characteristics of enterprise products and financial feasibility and reliability are referred in a large propitiation of questionnaires.
Though there are many problems on the development road of guided-venture capital, decision-making mechanism is gradually being perfected. We can believe that more and more entrepreneurs will get capital supports and guided-venture capital industry will have a bright future under the efforts of government, venture capital companies, venture enterprises and the whole society.
引文
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11Wright M., et al., Venture Capital in Europe[J]. London, Stationery Office, 1998:139-157.
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3刘曼红.风险投资:创新与金融[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1998.
4成思危.科技风险投资论文集[M].北京:民主与建设出版社,1997:2—35.
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6 Wells W A. Venture Capital Decision Making[D].unpublished doctoral Dissertation, Carnegie-Mellon University,1974.
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