群体性突发事件的进化博弈分析
|
摘要
从根本上说,一个社会利益格局的大体均衡是社会不同群体利益博弈的结果。不同群体在表达和追求自己利益的权利与能力上存在巨大的差异。现阶段强势群体不仅已经形成一种比较稳定的结盟关系,而且具有了相当大的社会能量,对整个社会开始产生重要影响。而弱势群体在追逐自己利益方面,显然出于无力的状态,他们在国家的政治构架中缺少利益代表,缺少表达自己利益的制度化方式。当弱势群体的利益受损而无法通过一种制度化的安排来表达其利益诉求时,采取合法的利益表达方式有时可能被认为是无效的,而有效的利益表达方式都是不合法的。不同社会主体的利益博弈导致利益关系的不平衡。许多社会矛盾纠纷与暴力冲突问题,都反映了这些利益博弈的特定后果。所以,深入研究社会各利益之体之间的博弈关系,将对政府部门提高应对群体性突发事件的能力具有重要的意义。
本文通过对国内外大量关于群体性突发事件的理论文献以及近年来我国发生的多起群体性事件的研究,对群体性突发事件的成因进行分类分析,结合博弈论的相关理论,提出假设,建立进化博弈模型,通过对模型的均衡分析,提出在群体事件应对过程中,政府部门应该根据不同的情况采取相应的策略。从而尽量使整个社会的收益接近最大化。
Basically, the general balance of social interests is the results of different social groups. Different social groups differ hugely in expressing and pursuing their own interests in the rights and ability. Strong group has been formed at this stage not only a more stable alliance relationship at the present stage, but also a considerable social energy which have a great impact on the whole community. At the same time, vulnerable groups are week in pursuit of their own interests, because of inability of the social status and lack of Representative on behalf of their interests within political framework, with no institutionalized way of expressing their interests. When the interests of vulnerable groups can not satisfied by an institutional arrangement to express their interest demands, to adopt a legitimate expression of interest may sometimes be considered invalid, and oppositely effective way of expressing their interests are not legitimate. Game of the main interests of different social interests led to the imbalance. Many violent social conflicts and disputes and conflict, these interests are reflected in the specific consequences of the game. Therefore, in-depth study of various interests between groups, pose great significance for government departments in improving emergency response capacity for mass event.
Based on the many domestic and international incidents on the theory of mass event and even more cases occurred in China recent years, emergencies are classified and analyzed on their causes in this thesis, combined with the theory of game theory, a hypothesis the establishment of evolutionary game model, the model of equilibrium through the analysis, bringing up suggestion for government in handling mass event so as to maximize the benefits for the whole society.
本文通过对国内外大量关于群体性突发事件的理论文献以及近年来我国发生的多起群体性事件的研究,对群体性突发事件的成因进行分类分析,结合博弈论的相关理论,提出假设,建立进化博弈模型,通过对模型的均衡分析,提出在群体事件应对过程中,政府部门应该根据不同的情况采取相应的策略。从而尽量使整个社会的收益接近最大化。
Basically, the general balance of social interests is the results of different social groups. Different social groups differ hugely in expressing and pursuing their own interests in the rights and ability. Strong group has been formed at this stage not only a more stable alliance relationship at the present stage, but also a considerable social energy which have a great impact on the whole community. At the same time, vulnerable groups are week in pursuit of their own interests, because of inability of the social status and lack of Representative on behalf of their interests within political framework, with no institutionalized way of expressing their interests. When the interests of vulnerable groups can not satisfied by an institutional arrangement to express their interest demands, to adopt a legitimate expression of interest may sometimes be considered invalid, and oppositely effective way of expressing their interests are not legitimate. Game of the main interests of different social interests led to the imbalance. Many violent social conflicts and disputes and conflict, these interests are reflected in the specific consequences of the game. Therefore, in-depth study of various interests between groups, pose great significance for government departments in improving emergency response capacity for mass event.
Based on the many domestic and international incidents on the theory of mass event and even more cases occurred in China recent years, emergencies are classified and analyzed on their causes in this thesis, combined with the theory of game theory, a hypothesis the establishment of evolutionary game model, the model of equilibrium through the analysis, bringing up suggestion for government in handling mass event so as to maximize the benefits for the whole society.
引文
[1]国情调研,2004中国社会科学院青年人文社会科学中心,济南:山东人民出版社,2006.1
[2]吴宁,和谐社会建设中的非理性,合肥:合肥工业大学出版社,2007
[3]孙立平,断裂社会的利益冲突与和谐,北京:社会科学文献出版社,2006.1
[4]程美东,透视当代中国重大突发事件,北京:中共党史出版社,2008.1
[5]汝信,陆学艺,李培林,2007年:中国社会形势分析与预测,北京:社会科学文献出版社,2006.12
[6]宫志刚,社会转型与社会重建,北京:中国人民公安出版社,2004.7
[7]迈克尔·沙利文特雷纳,信息高速公路透视,北京:北京科技文献出版社,1995
[8]社会心理学,俞国良,北京:北京师范大学出版社,2006.08
[9]孙元明,当前国内群体性事件及其发展趋势研究[J]江南社会学院学报,2008(3)
[10]童星等,群体性突发事件及其治理—社会风险与公共危机综合分析框架下的再思考[H].公共行政,2008.6
[11]谢识予,经济博弈论[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2002
[12]吴宁,和谐社会建设中的非理性,合肥:合肥工业大学出版社,2007.4
[13]夏军,非理性世界,上海:上海三联书店,1998
[14]史蒂芬·弗兰佐[美],葛鉴桥等译,社会心里学,上海:上海人们出版社,2010
[15]程美东,透视当代中国重大突发事件:1949~2005,北京:中共当时出版社,2008.1
[16]俞国良,社会心理学,北京:北京师范大学出版社,2006.08
[17]罗伯特?希斯[美],危机管理,北京:中信出版社,2004.1.5
[18]孙元明,当前国内群体性事件及其发展趋势研究[J]江南社会学院学报,2008(3)
[19]童星等,群体性突发事件及其治理:社会风险与公共危机综合分析框架下的再思考[H],公共行政,2008.6
[20]于建嵘等.群体性事件与社会和谐[J].人民网.2008-1 2-29
[21]薛澜钟开斌,突发公共事件分类、分级与分期:应急体制的管理基础[J],中国行政管理,2005,(2)
[22]李一平,突发性群体事件的成因及防范[J].中州学刊,2002(5)
[23]秦明兰,当前群体性突发事件的特点及成因分析[J],经营管理者,2009(05)
[24]樊鹏,中国社会结构与社会意识对国家稳定的影响[J],政治学研究,2009(02)
[25]吴家骥,科学发展观视野下的群体性突发事件研究[J],云南社会科学, 2009(03)
[26]潘小娟,白少飞,中国地方政府社会管理创新的理论思考[J],政治学研究,2009(02)
[27]陈发桂,无直接利益诉求的群体性突发事件:特征、原因及治理对策[J], 2009(01)
[28]张玉磊,当前我国群体性突发事件的六大特征[J],党政干部学刊,2008(10)
[29]马雪芹,张红,群体性突发事件对政府能力的考量[J],青年科学,2009(06)
[30]邓秀华,长沙、广州两市农民工政治参与问卷调查分析[J],政治学研究,2009(02)
[31]赵强.,中国国家舆论安全研究[J],政治学研究, 2009(02)
[32]史云贵,我国现阶段社会群体性突发事件的反思与应对[J],政治学研究,2009(2)
[33]陈晋胜,《群体性事件研究报告》,北京群众出版社,2004.02
[34]巴?克,《社会心理学》[M],天津:南开大学出版社,1984
[35]董清民,预防和正确处理突发性群体事件的探讨[J],中共郑州市委党校学报,2005
[36]尤建龙朱德米,公共管理研究[M],上海:同济大学出版社,2006
[37]孙时进,社会心理学[M],上海:复旦大学出版社,2007
[38]薛澜,危机管理[M],北京:清华大学出版社,2003
[39]刘彦成,浅析暴力事件群体对个体心理和行为的影响[M],北京人民警察学院学报
[40]陈月生,群体性突发事件与舆情[M],天津:天津社会科学院出版社,2005
[41]埃利亚斯?卡内提,群众与权力[M],冯文光,刘敏,张毅,译.北京:中央编译出版社
[42]张维迎,博弈论与信息经济学[M],上海:上海人民出版社,l996
[43]谢识予,经济博弈论[M],上海:复旦大学出版社,2002
[44]阿维纳什?迪克西特(Avinash Dixit),苏珊斯克丝(Susan Skeath),策略博弈(Games of Strategy),北京:中国人民大学出版社,2009
[45]李腾,《“红衫军”大闹帕塔亚东盟与对话国系列峰会无限期推迟》,《人民日报》2009年4月11日,第八版
[46]吕嘉琳,群体性事件初探,企业家天地(下旬刊),2009.11
[47]2009年《社会蓝皮书》发布暨中国社会形势报告会,中国网(2008-12-15),http://www.china.com.cn/zhibo/2008-12/15/content_16927610.htm
[48]《记者调研对话录:提高应对群体性事件能力》,新华网(2009-0l-25)http://news.xinhuanet.tom/legal/2009-Ol/05/content_10605567.htm
[49]哲源,群体性事件的四大成因及对策[EB/OL]_新华网,http://news.xinhuanet.com/theory/2008-12-30,con-tent_0574553.htm,2008-12-30
[50]Simon. Theories of Decision- making in Economicsand Behavioral Science [ J]. American Economic Review,1959(49): 253~283
[2]吴宁,和谐社会建设中的非理性,合肥:合肥工业大学出版社,2007
[3]孙立平,断裂社会的利益冲突与和谐,北京:社会科学文献出版社,2006.1
[4]程美东,透视当代中国重大突发事件,北京:中共党史出版社,2008.1
[5]汝信,陆学艺,李培林,2007年:中国社会形势分析与预测,北京:社会科学文献出版社,2006.12
[6]宫志刚,社会转型与社会重建,北京:中国人民公安出版社,2004.7
[7]迈克尔·沙利文特雷纳,信息高速公路透视,北京:北京科技文献出版社,1995
[8]社会心理学,俞国良,北京:北京师范大学出版社,2006.08
[9]孙元明,当前国内群体性事件及其发展趋势研究[J]江南社会学院学报,2008(3)
[10]童星等,群体性突发事件及其治理—社会风险与公共危机综合分析框架下的再思考[H].公共行政,2008.6
[11]谢识予,经济博弈论[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2002
[12]吴宁,和谐社会建设中的非理性,合肥:合肥工业大学出版社,2007.4
[13]夏军,非理性世界,上海:上海三联书店,1998
[14]史蒂芬·弗兰佐[美],葛鉴桥等译,社会心里学,上海:上海人们出版社,2010
[15]程美东,透视当代中国重大突发事件:1949~2005,北京:中共当时出版社,2008.1
[16]俞国良,社会心理学,北京:北京师范大学出版社,2006.08
[17]罗伯特?希斯[美],危机管理,北京:中信出版社,2004.1.5
[18]孙元明,当前国内群体性事件及其发展趋势研究[J]江南社会学院学报,2008(3)
[19]童星等,群体性突发事件及其治理:社会风险与公共危机综合分析框架下的再思考[H],公共行政,2008.6
[20]于建嵘等.群体性事件与社会和谐[J].人民网.2008-1 2-29
[21]薛澜钟开斌,突发公共事件分类、分级与分期:应急体制的管理基础[J],中国行政管理,2005,(2)
[22]李一平,突发性群体事件的成因及防范[J].中州学刊,2002(5)
[23]秦明兰,当前群体性突发事件的特点及成因分析[J],经营管理者,2009(05)
[24]樊鹏,中国社会结构与社会意识对国家稳定的影响[J],政治学研究,2009(02)
[25]吴家骥,科学发展观视野下的群体性突发事件研究[J],云南社会科学, 2009(03)
[26]潘小娟,白少飞,中国地方政府社会管理创新的理论思考[J],政治学研究,2009(02)
[27]陈发桂,无直接利益诉求的群体性突发事件:特征、原因及治理对策[J], 2009(01)
[28]张玉磊,当前我国群体性突发事件的六大特征[J],党政干部学刊,2008(10)
[29]马雪芹,张红,群体性突发事件对政府能力的考量[J],青年科学,2009(06)
[30]邓秀华,长沙、广州两市农民工政治参与问卷调查分析[J],政治学研究,2009(02)
[31]赵强.,中国国家舆论安全研究[J],政治学研究, 2009(02)
[32]史云贵,我国现阶段社会群体性突发事件的反思与应对[J],政治学研究,2009(2)
[33]陈晋胜,《群体性事件研究报告》,北京群众出版社,2004.02
[34]巴?克,《社会心理学》[M],天津:南开大学出版社,1984
[35]董清民,预防和正确处理突发性群体事件的探讨[J],中共郑州市委党校学报,2005
[36]尤建龙朱德米,公共管理研究[M],上海:同济大学出版社,2006
[37]孙时进,社会心理学[M],上海:复旦大学出版社,2007
[38]薛澜,危机管理[M],北京:清华大学出版社,2003
[39]刘彦成,浅析暴力事件群体对个体心理和行为的影响[M],北京人民警察学院学报
[40]陈月生,群体性突发事件与舆情[M],天津:天津社会科学院出版社,2005
[41]埃利亚斯?卡内提,群众与权力[M],冯文光,刘敏,张毅,译.北京:中央编译出版社
[42]张维迎,博弈论与信息经济学[M],上海:上海人民出版社,l996
[43]谢识予,经济博弈论[M],上海:复旦大学出版社,2002
[44]阿维纳什?迪克西特(Avinash Dixit),苏珊斯克丝(Susan Skeath),策略博弈(Games of Strategy),北京:中国人民大学出版社,2009
[45]李腾,《“红衫军”大闹帕塔亚东盟与对话国系列峰会无限期推迟》,《人民日报》2009年4月11日,第八版
[46]吕嘉琳,群体性事件初探,企业家天地(下旬刊),2009.11
[47]2009年《社会蓝皮书》发布暨中国社会形势报告会,中国网(2008-12-15),http://www.china.com.cn/zhibo/2008-12/15/content_16927610.htm
[48]《记者调研对话录:提高应对群体性事件能力》,新华网(2009-0l-25)http://news.xinhuanet.tom/legal/2009-Ol/05/content_10605567.htm
[49]哲源,群体性事件的四大成因及对策[EB/OL]_新华网,http://news.xinhuanet.com/theory/2008-12-30,con-tent_0574553.htm,2008-12-30
[50]Simon. Theories of Decision- making in Economicsand Behavioral Science [ J]. American Economic Review,1959(49): 253~283