亚洲区域服务贸易自由化的合作问题研究
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摘要
随着区域和多边自由贸易协定的增多,区域服务贸易自由化成为全面实现服务贸易自由化道路上一个新的发展方向,起着十分重要的作用。但是也应看到,目前区域服务贸易自由化的发展还不成熟,尚处于开始阶段。区域经济合作组织的成员国之间发展服务贸易,由于出口相似指数过高,会在很多方面存在着直接或间接的竞争。同时,不同的区域组织成员间的贸易结构和专业化分工特点也会导致区域服务贸易的发展将具有不同于货物贸易发展的独特路径和发展模式。
因此,本文以亚洲地区为例,从交易成本和分工经济的视角出发,按照合作基础一合作路径一合作效应的思路,构建了基于交易成本的区域服务贸易自由化合作博弈模型和基于贸易结构和分工经济的区域服务贸易自由化福利效应模型,进而分析区域服务贸易自由化的合作问题。
本文主要的研究内容包括：在对国内外有关区域服务贸易自由化的协议安排、实现路径和福利效应的研究成果进行分析和综述的基础上,提出区域服务贸易自由化的理论基础,从交易成本和专业化分工角度扩展区域服务贸易自由化的理论模型,并分析了区域服务贸易自由化的静态和动态的福利效应。对合作基础的分析部分,主要对区域服务贸易自由化的发展水平进行评估。搜集现存区域服务贸易自由化协议文本和相关附件,以亚洲国家为例,对其服务贸易自由化的水平进行评估,判断当前服务贸易自由化所处的阶段和未来的发展趋势。对合作路径的分析部分,主要构建了基于交易成本理论的区域服务贸易自由化合作博弈模型。通过分析交易成本对区域服务贸易自由化形成的影响,将区域服务贸易自由化合作分为国内和国际两个层次,分别用合作博弈模型和讨价还价模型探讨影响区域服务贸易自由化协议签订和实施的因素,从而提出区域服务贸易自由化的合作机制。对合作效应的分析部分,通过引入产品差异性的概念,分析封闭和开放经济下服务贸易自由化的程度以及四种提供模式对服务贸易自由化福利的影响,探讨如何在降低自由化交易成本的基础上,减少成员国之间的差异性、增强互补性,获取分工经济,提升服务贸易自由化的动态福利效应。最后以中国参与的区域服务贸易自由化为例进行实证分析,量化分析中国区域服务贸易自由化的发展水平,计算中国区域服务贸易的开放程度及中国参与区域服务贸易自由化的经济效应,进一步验证互补性的贸易结构可以促进区域服务贸易自由化的形成与发展,并提出了发展中国家加快区域服务贸易自由化进程的政策建议。
本文的主要结论有：(1)从交易成本和分工经济的视角拓展了区域服务贸易自由化的理论框架,指出降低自由化成本成为能否进行区域服务贸易自由化合作的关键所在。同时从分工经济角度探讨区域服务贸易自由化产生的动态福利效应,指出：通过签订自由化协议,促进区域服务贸易自由化的实现,可以进一步消除区域内的贸易壁垒,扩大市场容量,提高交易效率,降低交易成本,最终目的就是为了实现专业化成本和分工经济,从而获得区域内服务贸易收益的最大化,并促进区域内服务贸易自由化的福利增长。交易成本、分工经济和区域服务贸易自由化的福利效应三者之间存在着密不可分的互动协调关系。(2)提出了对区域服务贸易自由化发展水平的评估模型。在对亚洲地区区域服务贸易自由化的发展进行测度,认为亚洲地区国家在区域服务贸易自由化发展水平上参差不齐,区域内国家均表现出了较强的扩展意愿,愿意在区域内推行服务贸易自由化,对区域内的国家开放服务市场。同时对建筑和教育服务承诺水平最多,对商业存在的开放程度要略大于对于跨境交付的开放程度,采取否定列表形式的区域服务贸易协议作出改进或新建区域服务贸易自由化承诺的比例大于采取肯定列表形式的区域服务贸易协议。(3)构建了基于交易成本视角的区域服务贸易自由化合作博弈模型,从参与国国际谈判和国内政策协调两个维度,探索了区域服务贸易自由化的合作路径,分析自由化创建成本和自由化维护成本对区域服务贸易自由化合作的影响。指出区域服务贸易自由化合作进行的充分条件就是能够进行有效磋商,降低交易成本,协调彼此之间的利益分配,并最终达成具有约束力的协议。交易成本的存在影响区域服务贸易自由化的合作。同时参与区域服务贸易自由化的成员国的差异性以及成员国的数目是造成自由化交易成本增加的主要原因,那么减少自由化成本就需要减少成员国之间的差异性、谋求成员之间经济趋同。(4)从贸易结构和专业化分工两个方面分析区域服务贸易自由化的福利效应,指出不同的贸易结构与专业化分工特点对区域服务贸易自由化福利分配的影响,从短期来看,服务贸易互补性对服务贸易出口的影响要大于服务贸易专业化分工带来的影响,而从长期来看,服务贸易专业化分工对服务贸易出口的影响要大于服务贸易互补性带来的影响。进一步证明了互补性的贸易结构以及专业化的分工都会对服务贸易自由化的福利效应产生影响。
With the rapid development in the signature of regional and multilateral free trade agreements between countries, regional liberalization of services trade has become a new trading direction with a view to achieve a progressively higher level of liberalization in trade in services. However, it is still in its primary stage to develop services trade in the region. Because of the high similarity of export structure in the regional countries, when the members in the regional organization try to exchange services among each other, it will be full of competition and thus cause important problems. In addition, different services trade structures and characteristics of division of labor will influence the welfare effect of regional services trade.
Therefore, from two aspects of transation cost and division economy, this dissertation made a research on the cooperation issues of regional liberalization of services trade in Asia by establishing a cooperative game model and a welfare effect model.
This dissertation is consistent of seven chapters. The first chapter is the introduction part, in which the research background, problem, literature are introduced and quoted. It traced back to the relevant research on regional services trade agreements, the realization approaches and welfare effect of regional liberalization of services trade at home and abroad, and pointed out the shortages in the present study and in the end put forward this dissertation's research outline. The second chapter is the theoretical analysis of cooperation mechanism and welfare effect of regional liberalization of services trade. It defined the concept and meaning of regional liberalization of services trade, extended the theoretical model of cooperation mechanism and welfare effect of regional liberalization in trade in services from the aspect of transaction cost and specialized division of labor, and also analyzed the static and dynamic effect of services trade liberalization. The third chapter evaluated the present liberalization level in the regional services trade. It collected relevant free trade agreements and documents, especially among Asian countries, and evaluated the realization level of regional services trade liberalization, based on which it judged the stages and future developing trend of regional liberalization of services trade. In addition, it compared the Asian countries'services trade liberalization with North America's mature services trade, and tried to find out the similarities. The fourth chapter established a cooperative game model to analyze the cooperation mechanism of regional liberalization in trade in services based on the theory of transaction cost. It divided the transaction cost of liberalization into cost before liberalization and cost after liberalization, and the cooperation process of regional services trade into domestic negotiation and international negotiation, and individually analyzed the influence of liberalization cost on the cooperation of regional services trade with the method of cooperation game model and bargaining game model. The fifth chapter constructed a welfare effect model of regional liberalization in trade in services, which is mainly focused on the analysis of the influence of trade structure and specialized division of labor on the distribution of welfare of services trade liberalization. It introduced the concept of services product differentiation, analyzed the liberalization level of services trade under closed and open economy, and also the different influence effect under four services trade providing mode, and explored the approach to strengthen the complementarities of regional members in services trade structure, capture the benefit of division economy and finally promote the dynamic welfare effect of services trade liberalization on the basis of the deduction of liberalization transaction cost. The sixth chapter made an empirical analysis on China's regional liberalization of services trade by evaluating its realization level and economic effect, further validating the previous conclusions that the complementary trade structure can promote the formation and development of regional liberalization of services trade, based on which relevant policy suggestions and countermeasures were put forward in the end in order to help developing countries to participate in the process of regional liberalization of services trade and also accelerate the process of regional cooperation in services trade. The seventh chapter is the conclusion part, in which the shortcoming of the dissertation and future research expectation are introduced.
This dissertation have the following conclusions:(1) It established a cooperation game model of regional liberalization of services trade based on the aspect of transaction cost, and analyzed the cooperation mechanism and developing approach when realizing regional services trade liberalization. By analyzing the domestic and international negotiation process of the participators, it pointed out that in order to realized the profit maximum in the region cooperation, the participators should deduct the liberalization transaction cost, balance the profit of the government and domestic monopoly group, and achieve a promissory liberalization agreement before the fully implementation of services trade liberalization, thus leading to the success of regional cooperation on services trade.(2) It brought forward an evaluation model of regional liberalization level of services trade based on the data of Asian countries. It was found out that Asian countries are uneven in the level of regional liberalization of services trade, where some countries show strong desire to develop regional liberalization in the region and open domestic market to the member countries. Meanwhile, it was also found out that construction services and education services commit the highest liberalization level to the regional countries, and the mode of commercial presence has the higher liberalization level than that of cross-border supply, and the negative approach commit the higher level of liberalization that the positive approach.(3) It developed a welfare effect mode of regional liberalization of services trade from the aspect of the influence of services trade structure and specialized division of labor. It analyzed the influence of different trade structure and characteristics of division of labor on the welfare distribution of regional services trade liberalization, calculate the complementary and competitiveness of different countries in Asia, and further testify the complementary of services trade structure and division of labor will positively influence the export of services trade in the region no matter in a short term or a long term through the granger causality test with panel data.(4) It put forward an evaluation method to evaluate the realization level of regional liberalization of services trade by taking the example of Asian countries'regional services trade agreement. And it also evaluated China's opening level under multilateral and regional cooperation, estimate the welfare effect of China's regional liberalization in trade in services with the modified gravity model. The sectoral data were also used to approve the influence of signature of regional services trade agreements on the development of services trade exports.
因此,本文以亚洲地区为例,从交易成本和分工经济的视角出发,按照合作基础一合作路径一合作效应的思路,构建了基于交易成本的区域服务贸易自由化合作博弈模型和基于贸易结构和分工经济的区域服务贸易自由化福利效应模型,进而分析区域服务贸易自由化的合作问题。
本文主要的研究内容包括：在对国内外有关区域服务贸易自由化的协议安排、实现路径和福利效应的研究成果进行分析和综述的基础上,提出区域服务贸易自由化的理论基础,从交易成本和专业化分工角度扩展区域服务贸易自由化的理论模型,并分析了区域服务贸易自由化的静态和动态的福利效应。对合作基础的分析部分,主要对区域服务贸易自由化的发展水平进行评估。搜集现存区域服务贸易自由化协议文本和相关附件,以亚洲国家为例,对其服务贸易自由化的水平进行评估,判断当前服务贸易自由化所处的阶段和未来的发展趋势。对合作路径的分析部分,主要构建了基于交易成本理论的区域服务贸易自由化合作博弈模型。通过分析交易成本对区域服务贸易自由化形成的影响,将区域服务贸易自由化合作分为国内和国际两个层次,分别用合作博弈模型和讨价还价模型探讨影响区域服务贸易自由化协议签订和实施的因素,从而提出区域服务贸易自由化的合作机制。对合作效应的分析部分,通过引入产品差异性的概念,分析封闭和开放经济下服务贸易自由化的程度以及四种提供模式对服务贸易自由化福利的影响,探讨如何在降低自由化交易成本的基础上,减少成员国之间的差异性、增强互补性,获取分工经济,提升服务贸易自由化的动态福利效应。最后以中国参与的区域服务贸易自由化为例进行实证分析,量化分析中国区域服务贸易自由化的发展水平,计算中国区域服务贸易的开放程度及中国参与区域服务贸易自由化的经济效应,进一步验证互补性的贸易结构可以促进区域服务贸易自由化的形成与发展,并提出了发展中国家加快区域服务贸易自由化进程的政策建议。
本文的主要结论有：(1)从交易成本和分工经济的视角拓展了区域服务贸易自由化的理论框架,指出降低自由化成本成为能否进行区域服务贸易自由化合作的关键所在。同时从分工经济角度探讨区域服务贸易自由化产生的动态福利效应,指出：通过签订自由化协议,促进区域服务贸易自由化的实现,可以进一步消除区域内的贸易壁垒,扩大市场容量,提高交易效率,降低交易成本,最终目的就是为了实现专业化成本和分工经济,从而获得区域内服务贸易收益的最大化,并促进区域内服务贸易自由化的福利增长。交易成本、分工经济和区域服务贸易自由化的福利效应三者之间存在着密不可分的互动协调关系。(2)提出了对区域服务贸易自由化发展水平的评估模型。在对亚洲地区区域服务贸易自由化的发展进行测度,认为亚洲地区国家在区域服务贸易自由化发展水平上参差不齐,区域内国家均表现出了较强的扩展意愿,愿意在区域内推行服务贸易自由化,对区域内的国家开放服务市场。同时对建筑和教育服务承诺水平最多,对商业存在的开放程度要略大于对于跨境交付的开放程度,采取否定列表形式的区域服务贸易协议作出改进或新建区域服务贸易自由化承诺的比例大于采取肯定列表形式的区域服务贸易协议。(3)构建了基于交易成本视角的区域服务贸易自由化合作博弈模型,从参与国国际谈判和国内政策协调两个维度,探索了区域服务贸易自由化的合作路径,分析自由化创建成本和自由化维护成本对区域服务贸易自由化合作的影响。指出区域服务贸易自由化合作进行的充分条件就是能够进行有效磋商,降低交易成本,协调彼此之间的利益分配,并最终达成具有约束力的协议。交易成本的存在影响区域服务贸易自由化的合作。同时参与区域服务贸易自由化的成员国的差异性以及成员国的数目是造成自由化交易成本增加的主要原因,那么减少自由化成本就需要减少成员国之间的差异性、谋求成员之间经济趋同。(4)从贸易结构和专业化分工两个方面分析区域服务贸易自由化的福利效应,指出不同的贸易结构与专业化分工特点对区域服务贸易自由化福利分配的影响,从短期来看,服务贸易互补性对服务贸易出口的影响要大于服务贸易专业化分工带来的影响,而从长期来看,服务贸易专业化分工对服务贸易出口的影响要大于服务贸易互补性带来的影响。进一步证明了互补性的贸易结构以及专业化的分工都会对服务贸易自由化的福利效应产生影响。
With the rapid development in the signature of regional and multilateral free trade agreements between countries, regional liberalization of services trade has become a new trading direction with a view to achieve a progressively higher level of liberalization in trade in services. However, it is still in its primary stage to develop services trade in the region. Because of the high similarity of export structure in the regional countries, when the members in the regional organization try to exchange services among each other, it will be full of competition and thus cause important problems. In addition, different services trade structures and characteristics of division of labor will influence the welfare effect of regional services trade.
Therefore, from two aspects of transation cost and division economy, this dissertation made a research on the cooperation issues of regional liberalization of services trade in Asia by establishing a cooperative game model and a welfare effect model.
This dissertation is consistent of seven chapters. The first chapter is the introduction part, in which the research background, problem, literature are introduced and quoted. It traced back to the relevant research on regional services trade agreements, the realization approaches and welfare effect of regional liberalization of services trade at home and abroad, and pointed out the shortages in the present study and in the end put forward this dissertation's research outline. The second chapter is the theoretical analysis of cooperation mechanism and welfare effect of regional liberalization of services trade. It defined the concept and meaning of regional liberalization of services trade, extended the theoretical model of cooperation mechanism and welfare effect of regional liberalization in trade in services from the aspect of transaction cost and specialized division of labor, and also analyzed the static and dynamic effect of services trade liberalization. The third chapter evaluated the present liberalization level in the regional services trade. It collected relevant free trade agreements and documents, especially among Asian countries, and evaluated the realization level of regional services trade liberalization, based on which it judged the stages and future developing trend of regional liberalization of services trade. In addition, it compared the Asian countries'services trade liberalization with North America's mature services trade, and tried to find out the similarities. The fourth chapter established a cooperative game model to analyze the cooperation mechanism of regional liberalization in trade in services based on the theory of transaction cost. It divided the transaction cost of liberalization into cost before liberalization and cost after liberalization, and the cooperation process of regional services trade into domestic negotiation and international negotiation, and individually analyzed the influence of liberalization cost on the cooperation of regional services trade with the method of cooperation game model and bargaining game model. The fifth chapter constructed a welfare effect model of regional liberalization in trade in services, which is mainly focused on the analysis of the influence of trade structure and specialized division of labor on the distribution of welfare of services trade liberalization. It introduced the concept of services product differentiation, analyzed the liberalization level of services trade under closed and open economy, and also the different influence effect under four services trade providing mode, and explored the approach to strengthen the complementarities of regional members in services trade structure, capture the benefit of division economy and finally promote the dynamic welfare effect of services trade liberalization on the basis of the deduction of liberalization transaction cost. The sixth chapter made an empirical analysis on China's regional liberalization of services trade by evaluating its realization level and economic effect, further validating the previous conclusions that the complementary trade structure can promote the formation and development of regional liberalization of services trade, based on which relevant policy suggestions and countermeasures were put forward in the end in order to help developing countries to participate in the process of regional liberalization of services trade and also accelerate the process of regional cooperation in services trade. The seventh chapter is the conclusion part, in which the shortcoming of the dissertation and future research expectation are introduced.
This dissertation have the following conclusions:(1) It established a cooperation game model of regional liberalization of services trade based on the aspect of transaction cost, and analyzed the cooperation mechanism and developing approach when realizing regional services trade liberalization. By analyzing the domestic and international negotiation process of the participators, it pointed out that in order to realized the profit maximum in the region cooperation, the participators should deduct the liberalization transaction cost, balance the profit of the government and domestic monopoly group, and achieve a promissory liberalization agreement before the fully implementation of services trade liberalization, thus leading to the success of regional cooperation on services trade.(2) It brought forward an evaluation model of regional liberalization level of services trade based on the data of Asian countries. It was found out that Asian countries are uneven in the level of regional liberalization of services trade, where some countries show strong desire to develop regional liberalization in the region and open domestic market to the member countries. Meanwhile, it was also found out that construction services and education services commit the highest liberalization level to the regional countries, and the mode of commercial presence has the higher liberalization level than that of cross-border supply, and the negative approach commit the higher level of liberalization that the positive approach.(3) It developed a welfare effect mode of regional liberalization of services trade from the aspect of the influence of services trade structure and specialized division of labor. It analyzed the influence of different trade structure and characteristics of division of labor on the welfare distribution of regional services trade liberalization, calculate the complementary and competitiveness of different countries in Asia, and further testify the complementary of services trade structure and division of labor will positively influence the export of services trade in the region no matter in a short term or a long term through the granger causality test with panel data.(4) It put forward an evaluation method to evaluate the realization level of regional liberalization of services trade by taking the example of Asian countries'regional services trade agreement. And it also evaluated China's opening level under multilateral and regional cooperation, estimate the welfare effect of China's regional liberalization in trade in services with the modified gravity model. The sectoral data were also used to approve the influence of signature of regional services trade agreements on the development of services trade exports.
引文
1 见何茂春,《国际服务贸易：自由化与规则——兼论扩大开放与国家经济安全》,P3-4
2见《服务贸易总协定》第四部分：逐步自由化
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2 见沈铭辉,周念利,亚洲区域经济合作新领域：区域服务贸易自由化,太平洋学报,2010,18(2)：66-74
1 见余振,《东亚区域贸易安排：福利效应与中国的参与战略》,科学出版社,北京,2010：41
1 见杨小凯：《经济学：新兴古典与新古典框架》,社会科学文献出版社2003年版,第215页。
2 见杨小凯、黄有光：《专有化与经济组织：一种新兴古典微观经济学框架》,经济科学出版社1999年版,第106-136页；杨小凯；《经济学：新兴古典与新古典框架》,社会科学文献出版社2003年版,第205-228页。
3 屈子力：《内生交易费用与区域经济一体化》,《南开经济研究》,2003年第2期
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2见《服务贸易总协定》第四部分：逐步自由化
1 见谢建国,区域与多边贸易一体化研究——一个博弈论分析框架,南京大学出版社,南京,2007：49-50
2 见沈铭辉,周念利,亚洲区域经济合作新领域：区域服务贸易自由化,太平洋学报,2010,18(2)：66-74
1 见余振,《东亚区域贸易安排：福利效应与中国的参与战略》,科学出版社,北京,2010：41
1 见杨小凯：《经济学：新兴古典与新古典框架》,社会科学文献出版社2003年版,第215页。
2 见杨小凯、黄有光：《专有化与经济组织：一种新兴古典微观经济学框架》,经济科学出版社1999年版,第106-136页；杨小凯；《经济学：新兴古典与新古典框架》,社会科学文献出版社2003年版,第205-228页。
3 屈子力：《内生交易费用与区域经济一体化》,《南开经济研究》,2003年第2期
1 马兹辉,中国地方财政收入与支出——面板数据因果性与协整研究[J],管理世界,2008(3)：75-86
2 高铁梅,2007
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