中国参与东亚经贸合作边境效应问题研究
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摘要
随着世界贸易组织多哈回合谈判被搁置,最近这十余年以来,世界各大区域经济一体化步伐逐步加快,各区块经济一体化程度也逐渐加深。在这样的背景下,中国所在的东亚地区却由于历史、政治、民族,以及经济结构等等各种因素导致东亚区域经济一体化进程十分缓慢。区域经济一体化进展缓慢,就导致了东亚地区的国家和地区在与世界其他区域的经济体进行贸易谈判的时候,往往居于弱势地位。由此,也促使东亚各国开始认真考虑区域经济一体化的问题。2003年,中国与东盟国家达成一致,开始建设中国——东盟自由贸易区,并最终于2011年建成。与此同时,韩国、日本也分别与东盟达成了一致,开始建设包括东盟十国和各自国家的10+1模式的自由贸易区。中日韩之间的自由贸易谈判比较困难,尽管如此,出于共同的利益考量,必然也将签署相关的自由贸易协定,从而将整个东亚绝大部分的国家和地区纳入到一个统一的自由贸易体系当中。由于中国——东盟自由贸易区是除了东盟自由贸易区本身之外,建立东亚自由贸易区时走在最前面的一项贸易安排,因此这一贸易安排的走向也将对整个东亚自由贸易区的建设产生重大的影响。
基于上述的背景下,本文将探讨中国——东盟自由贸易区建设中,中国所扮演的角色。究竟融入东盟自由贸易区的程度达到了一个什么样的水平?与东盟内部的国家比较起来,中国在与东盟国家开展贸易的时候,面临多强的额外障碍?在目前的水平下,如果中国要进一步推进东亚自由贸易区建设,需要往哪个方向努力?
为了回答上面的这些问题,我们在传统引力模型的基础上,进一步对引力模型进行了研究。在新经济地理相关理论假设和产品差异化可度量的假设下,利用调整后的效用函数推导得出一个非线性的引力模型,从而构建了一个更加适用于分析东亚国际贸易问题的研究框架。为了令这一框架对东亚的情况具有更好的适用性,我们进一步分析了研究目标的具体情况,从经济状况、地理环境、人口状况、文化因素乃至与区域外国家的贸易状况进行了综合考量。根据所得到的一些特点,我们对模型进行了一些修改。
在数据可获取的前提下,我们对中国与东盟贸易中面临的边境效应与东盟内部国家之间贸易时产生的边境效应进行比较,通过对固定系数模型、变动系数模型；对最为传统的基本模型和扩展模型；对总贸易、单向贸易模型；对线性和非线性模型,进行了多层次的分析,着重观察了一些参数的显著性状况是否与我们的假设相吻合,并且实时进行调整,以期望可以得到最为真实的边境效应比值状况。在此研究的基础上,我们利用日本作为参照,与中国的状况进行比较。基于两国在东亚自由贸易区建设中发挥着相类似的作用,因此这一比较也有利于我们了解目前两国分别与东盟自由贸易区建设的深入程度。同时,分析日本与东盟的贸易边境效应,也有利于我们对分析中国与东盟贸易的边境效应过程中出现的一些结果进行解释。
通过我们的研究,最终发现中国在与东盟进行自由贸易区建设的过程中,边境效应强度经历了一个倒U型的发展历程,大约在2005-2006年左右达到一个高峰,之后持续下降,目前已经非常接近东盟国家内部的水平。而日本由于采取了不同于中国的另外一种合作方式,因此它和东盟国家之间的边境效应强度比值呈现缓慢下降的线性趋势。然而由于与中国相比,日本与东盟边境效应相对明显得多,因此只要加速现有的谈判节奏,就可以明显促进日本——东盟之间的贸易发展。而中国如果依然以一个外来者的身份试图融入东盟,双边贸易进一步发展的潜在空间已经不是很大了,因此中国需要创新思维,调整进出口产品结构,同时引领东盟国家一起开放经济,降低东盟内部的贸易边境效应。
Since Doha Round of World Trade Talks has been suspended, regional integration is going much further than a few decades ago. East Asia, where China stands on, is far less integrated compare to other regions. There are multiple factors causes such circumstance, for instance, historical, political, ethnic issues, along with economic structure and so on. The slower integration process weakened bargaining power of economy entities within the region when they face the counterparts belong to a more integrated region. For that reason, main countries of East Asia started to be bushed together to talk about accelerating integration process. China has made an agreement with ASEAN in2003, hence initiated construction period. The construction accomplished at2011, and now the treaty is completely in force theoritically. During the time, Japan and R.Korea have attained their agreement with ASEAN seperately. The only hard part now is among China, Japan and R.Korea. Whenever the agreement signed, the East Asian Regional Trade Zone will be set. The agreement is expected to achieve someday eventually according to the benefit of each country. After then, almost all major economy entities in East Asia will be among the same Regional Trade Area (RTA). China-ASEAN RTA is the one which went furthest except ASEAN itself, so the development of this arrangement will somehow determine the schedule of East Asia RTA.
Considering such circumstance, this dissertationwill focus on the role China performs during the construction of China-ASEAN FTA. At which level we have integrated into ASEAN FTA? Compare to any country of ASEAN, how many additional obstacles are there lining in front of us when we trade with an ASEAN country? Given the current level, if China is going to push East Asia RTA further, in which direction we'll put in energy?
In order to answer these questions, we have to lucubrate on traditional gravity equation. Under the basic assumption of new economic geography and measurable differentiation, infer to a nonlinear gravity equation at the base of an adjusted untility function, which is believed to be more appropriate to East Asian analysis. For a even better accommodation to East Asia, we still need to analyse our objects, from economic, geographic, demographic, and cultural factors, to those status how a country trade with outside world. We again modified our model under those understandings.
Base on the data availability, we compared the border effect between China and ASEAN, with that among ASEAN. We employed multilayer models to observe significance level of certain factors. The models include fixed-coefficient and variable coefficient; basic and extended; total volume of trade and unilateral trade; linear and unlinear; and so on. We will find if the consequences follow our theories, and adjust during the process to make sure the regressions tell us a real world. At the base of this research, we will apply Japan as a reference, compare it with China. Because of the similar influence of this country pair during East Asia RTA construction, the comparation is useful to us to know how far we went. In the meantime, it is also useful to us to make a better explaination of our final outcomes.
We've eventually discovered a reversed U type trend line after China initiate FTA construction process with ASEAN.2005-2006there reaches a climax, and dramatically declined thereafter. It is now very close to that level among ASEAN countries. Japan adopted another different way to cooperate with ASEAN, which spared them from the rise part, and continuously declining, at a slower rate. Apparently, Japan-ASEAN has a much stronger border effect compare to China-ASEAN, so they can promote bilateral trade simply by accelerate the idea it inplemented or is implementing at present. If China still act as a outsider, and put most of the resource to try to become the same as ASEAN countries, that will be much less useful. Potential bilateral trade volumn is about to achieve, so we can only reach the point by modulate our trade structure, and lead ASEAN countries to be more opened, put down the inner border effect within ASEAN.
基于上述的背景下,本文将探讨中国——东盟自由贸易区建设中,中国所扮演的角色。究竟融入东盟自由贸易区的程度达到了一个什么样的水平?与东盟内部的国家比较起来,中国在与东盟国家开展贸易的时候,面临多强的额外障碍?在目前的水平下,如果中国要进一步推进东亚自由贸易区建设,需要往哪个方向努力?
为了回答上面的这些问题,我们在传统引力模型的基础上,进一步对引力模型进行了研究。在新经济地理相关理论假设和产品差异化可度量的假设下,利用调整后的效用函数推导得出一个非线性的引力模型,从而构建了一个更加适用于分析东亚国际贸易问题的研究框架。为了令这一框架对东亚的情况具有更好的适用性,我们进一步分析了研究目标的具体情况,从经济状况、地理环境、人口状况、文化因素乃至与区域外国家的贸易状况进行了综合考量。根据所得到的一些特点,我们对模型进行了一些修改。
在数据可获取的前提下,我们对中国与东盟贸易中面临的边境效应与东盟内部国家之间贸易时产生的边境效应进行比较,通过对固定系数模型、变动系数模型；对最为传统的基本模型和扩展模型；对总贸易、单向贸易模型；对线性和非线性模型,进行了多层次的分析,着重观察了一些参数的显著性状况是否与我们的假设相吻合,并且实时进行调整,以期望可以得到最为真实的边境效应比值状况。在此研究的基础上,我们利用日本作为参照,与中国的状况进行比较。基于两国在东亚自由贸易区建设中发挥着相类似的作用,因此这一比较也有利于我们了解目前两国分别与东盟自由贸易区建设的深入程度。同时,分析日本与东盟的贸易边境效应,也有利于我们对分析中国与东盟贸易的边境效应过程中出现的一些结果进行解释。
通过我们的研究,最终发现中国在与东盟进行自由贸易区建设的过程中,边境效应强度经历了一个倒U型的发展历程,大约在2005-2006年左右达到一个高峰,之后持续下降,目前已经非常接近东盟国家内部的水平。而日本由于采取了不同于中国的另外一种合作方式,因此它和东盟国家之间的边境效应强度比值呈现缓慢下降的线性趋势。然而由于与中国相比,日本与东盟边境效应相对明显得多,因此只要加速现有的谈判节奏,就可以明显促进日本——东盟之间的贸易发展。而中国如果依然以一个外来者的身份试图融入东盟,双边贸易进一步发展的潜在空间已经不是很大了,因此中国需要创新思维,调整进出口产品结构,同时引领东盟国家一起开放经济,降低东盟内部的贸易边境效应。
Since Doha Round of World Trade Talks has been suspended, regional integration is going much further than a few decades ago. East Asia, where China stands on, is far less integrated compare to other regions. There are multiple factors causes such circumstance, for instance, historical, political, ethnic issues, along with economic structure and so on. The slower integration process weakened bargaining power of economy entities within the region when they face the counterparts belong to a more integrated region. For that reason, main countries of East Asia started to be bushed together to talk about accelerating integration process. China has made an agreement with ASEAN in2003, hence initiated construction period. The construction accomplished at2011, and now the treaty is completely in force theoritically. During the time, Japan and R.Korea have attained their agreement with ASEAN seperately. The only hard part now is among China, Japan and R.Korea. Whenever the agreement signed, the East Asian Regional Trade Zone will be set. The agreement is expected to achieve someday eventually according to the benefit of each country. After then, almost all major economy entities in East Asia will be among the same Regional Trade Area (RTA). China-ASEAN RTA is the one which went furthest except ASEAN itself, so the development of this arrangement will somehow determine the schedule of East Asia RTA.
Considering such circumstance, this dissertationwill focus on the role China performs during the construction of China-ASEAN FTA. At which level we have integrated into ASEAN FTA? Compare to any country of ASEAN, how many additional obstacles are there lining in front of us when we trade with an ASEAN country? Given the current level, if China is going to push East Asia RTA further, in which direction we'll put in energy?
In order to answer these questions, we have to lucubrate on traditional gravity equation. Under the basic assumption of new economic geography and measurable differentiation, infer to a nonlinear gravity equation at the base of an adjusted untility function, which is believed to be more appropriate to East Asian analysis. For a even better accommodation to East Asia, we still need to analyse our objects, from economic, geographic, demographic, and cultural factors, to those status how a country trade with outside world. We again modified our model under those understandings.
Base on the data availability, we compared the border effect between China and ASEAN, with that among ASEAN. We employed multilayer models to observe significance level of certain factors. The models include fixed-coefficient and variable coefficient; basic and extended; total volume of trade and unilateral trade; linear and unlinear; and so on. We will find if the consequences follow our theories, and adjust during the process to make sure the regressions tell us a real world. At the base of this research, we will apply Japan as a reference, compare it with China. Because of the similar influence of this country pair during East Asia RTA construction, the comparation is useful to us to know how far we went. In the meantime, it is also useful to us to make a better explaination of our final outcomes.
We've eventually discovered a reversed U type trend line after China initiate FTA construction process with ASEAN.2005-2006there reaches a climax, and dramatically declined thereafter. It is now very close to that level among ASEAN countries. Japan adopted another different way to cooperate with ASEAN, which spared them from the rise part, and continuously declining, at a slower rate. Apparently, Japan-ASEAN has a much stronger border effect compare to China-ASEAN, so they can promote bilateral trade simply by accelerate the idea it inplemented or is implementing at present. If China still act as a outsider, and put most of the resource to try to become the same as ASEAN countries, that will be much less useful. Potential bilateral trade volumn is about to achieve, so we can only reach the point by modulate our trade structure, and lead ASEAN countries to be more opened, put down the inner border effect within ASEAN.
引文
①Any two bodies attract one another with a force that is proportional to the product of their masses and inversely proportional to the square of the distance between them.——Isaac Newton
②'workhorse for empirical study'参见Eichengreen and Irwin, in Frankel,1998,.
③事实上又排除了人口因素的影响,尽管安德森本人也承认人口变量在统计上是具有显著性意义的。
④ multilateral resistance
⑤ Remoteness。下文有详细论述。
⑥1995年作为NBER Working Paper No.5377即被学术界所关注,但是直到1998年才正式出版。
⑦参见Grossman,1998; Obstfeld and Rogoff,2000等文
⑧World Development Report 2009以相关附属著作
①Basic Model
②Central Equation
③Smith, Adam.1776. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nation.
④Ricardo, David.1817. On the Principle of Political Economy and Taxation.
⑤Armington Assumption
①小岛清坚持认为雁行模式理论的推出早于产业生命周期理论,而且其内涵更加丰富。他认为赤松要关于雁行模式理论的英文版本发表于1961年,而弗农的产平生命周期理论发表于1966年,因此不但不能说雁行模式理论受到产品生命周期理论的影响,反而有可能阐明生命周期理论受到雁行模式理论的影响。
②Von Thunen, Johann Heinrich.1826. Der Isoleirte Staat in Beziehung auf Landwirthschaft und NationalokonomieVol.1:Untersuchungen uber den Einfluss, den die Getreidepreise, der Reichtum des Bodens und die Abgaben auf den Ackerbau ausuben.
③Von Thunen, Johann Heinrich.1850. Der Isoleirte Staat in Beziehung auf Landwirthschaft und Nationalokonomie Vol.2. Der Naturgeasse Arbeitslohn und dessen Verhaltnis zum Zinsfuss und zur Landrente
④Christaller, Walter.1933. Die zentralen Orte in Suddeutschland
⑤Losch, August.1940. Die raumliche Ordnung der Wirtschaft由W. H. Woglom等人于1954年翻译成英语(题名改为：The Economics of Location.原题直译应为The Spatial Ordering of Economy),并由耶鲁大学出版社(New Haven:Yale University Press)首次在美国出版.中文版则由王守礼于1995年译出经由商务印书馆出版,题名为《经济空间秩序——经济财货与地理间的关系》。
⑥Economic density and distance,参见'World Development Report 2009'
⑦Geography and Trade
⑧The Journal of Political Economy
⑨Increasing Returns and Economic Geography.
⑩即Spatial Economy:Cities, Regions, and International Trade. (M. Fijita et al., 1999)
11自《中华人民共和国宪法》第一章第三十条
12部分协定的货物贸易条款和服务贸易条款分别计算。
①数据引自"Review of Marine Transport 2007",UNCTAD,2007
①引自(陆铭,陈钊,2009)pp 51
①参见《World Development Report 2009》 by World Bank
②http://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/srch/index.htm
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②'workhorse for empirical study'参见Eichengreen and Irwin, in Frankel,1998,.
③事实上又排除了人口因素的影响,尽管安德森本人也承认人口变量在统计上是具有显著性意义的。
④ multilateral resistance
⑤ Remoteness。下文有详细论述。
⑥1995年作为NBER Working Paper No.5377即被学术界所关注,但是直到1998年才正式出版。
⑦参见Grossman,1998; Obstfeld and Rogoff,2000等文
⑧World Development Report 2009以相关附属著作
①Basic Model
②Central Equation
③Smith, Adam.1776. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nation.
④Ricardo, David.1817. On the Principle of Political Economy and Taxation.
⑤Armington Assumption
①小岛清坚持认为雁行模式理论的推出早于产业生命周期理论,而且其内涵更加丰富。他认为赤松要关于雁行模式理论的英文版本发表于1961年,而弗农的产平生命周期理论发表于1966年,因此不但不能说雁行模式理论受到产品生命周期理论的影响,反而有可能阐明生命周期理论受到雁行模式理论的影响。
②Von Thunen, Johann Heinrich.1826. Der Isoleirte Staat in Beziehung auf Landwirthschaft und NationalokonomieVol.1:Untersuchungen uber den Einfluss, den die Getreidepreise, der Reichtum des Bodens und die Abgaben auf den Ackerbau ausuben.
③Von Thunen, Johann Heinrich.1850. Der Isoleirte Staat in Beziehung auf Landwirthschaft und Nationalokonomie Vol.2. Der Naturgeasse Arbeitslohn und dessen Verhaltnis zum Zinsfuss und zur Landrente
④Christaller, Walter.1933. Die zentralen Orte in Suddeutschland
⑤Losch, August.1940. Die raumliche Ordnung der Wirtschaft由W. H. Woglom等人于1954年翻译成英语(题名改为：The Economics of Location.原题直译应为The Spatial Ordering of Economy),并由耶鲁大学出版社(New Haven:Yale University Press)首次在美国出版.中文版则由王守礼于1995年译出经由商务印书馆出版,题名为《经济空间秩序——经济财货与地理间的关系》。
⑥Economic density and distance,参见'World Development Report 2009'
⑦Geography and Trade
⑧The Journal of Political Economy
⑨Increasing Returns and Economic Geography.
⑩即Spatial Economy:Cities, Regions, and International Trade. (M. Fijita et al., 1999)
11自《中华人民共和国宪法》第一章第三十条
12部分协定的货物贸易条款和服务贸易条款分别计算。
①数据引自"Review of Marine Transport 2007",UNCTAD,2007
①引自(陆铭,陈钊,2009)pp 51
①参见《World Development Report 2009》 by World Bank
②http://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/srch/index.htm
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