经济转轨后中国出口价格贸易条件演化路径研究
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摘要
市场经济体制建立以来,我国始终秉承出口导向型贸易政策。2008年美国次贷危机爆发以来,出口的疲软、国外市场消费能力下降,这些都对我国经济的整体发展造成了一定影响。研究我国对外贸易在后危机时代中的风险抵抗力,对实现我国出口贸易升级具有重要意义。出口价格贸易条件历来被用来衡量一国贸易发展状况及贸易利益获得的指向标。因此,研究新形势下我国出口价格贸易条件随制度和技术变化而演变的路径,对我国外贸发展具有重要的战略意义和指导意义。
通过建立动态演化博弈模型与两国贸易模型,对我国价格贸易条件的演化路径进行技术层面的分析。模型结果显示,我国出口价格贸易条件处于技术锁定的不断恶化的路径中。发展中国家参与国际贸易,不断地出口技术含量低的商品,结果是贸易条件不断地恶化,贸易利益减少,处于不利地位。对于发展国家来说,想要打破“路径依赖”,必须提升自身的对于技术的学习能力和速率,才能在与发达国家竞争过程中占有先机。通过建立“干中学”理论模型进行制度层面的分析,得出只有在本国技术水平较高的部门实现知识效率的快速提升,才能使得贸易条件得到改善。但是值得注意的是,“干中学”由于其自身的耗竭性和外生性,并不能从根本上实现中国出口价格贸易条件的动态升级。
中国出口价格贸易条件主要受到制度和技术两个层面的因素影响。从制度方面来说,“干中学”的技术模仿制度由于其自身的局限性,使得技术创新速率的提升成为内生性因素,不能作为突破次优路径依赖的制度选择；从技术方面来说,虽然我国出口商品结构在不断的升级,但是出口价格贸易条件却呈下降的趋势,其原因就在于我国出口商品中工业制成品的技术含量水平较低,其技术提升速率较慢,无法改变其在国际市场中低端的定位,走不出技术模仿的恶性循环。因此,要想消除走出贸易条件恶化的技术锁定效应,就必须调高我国的技术学习速率,也就是提高我国的知识效率u,使其不具有外生性。我国不仅要吸收国外先进技术的益处效应,也要通过自主创新来提高知识效率u。通过自主创新,获得核心技术,实现出口商品技术水平速率提升加快,促使贸易条件动态模型均衡向着良性方向发展。
政府、企业和行业要共同协作,通过建立自主创新的制度保障和技术保证,从根本上改善我国出口价格贸易条件,强化我国贸易竞争力。政府应该建立相应的产业与贸易政策,为建立创新型国家打好基础。同时借鉴发达国家的贸易模式,推进我国市场经济体制改革。企业应注意提升自身的技术创新能力,加快相关核心的高科技含量的技术研制和引进。同时积极扩大海外市场,在新形势下进行海外并购。行业协会也应重点提升其协调和统一的作用,减少内耗,并降低国际贸易摩擦发生的概率。相关行业协会要正确地理解政府政策的意图,并以保护本国企业的确切利益为根本目标。
Terms of trade is a important index to measure a country's trade gains and status. This paper tries to do some research on the development path of terms of trade, the reasons why it is tracked inside the bad path and how to break the path based on the evolutionary economic theory through the establishment of theoretical models and econometric model. Besides, through the collection of data about China's export terms of trade since 1992, the paper does an empirical analysis in order to propose appropriate policies and recommendations to enhance the overall competitiveness of China's foreign trade.
The paper analyses the main factors which could exert effects on terms of trade from the point of system and technology. On the hand of system factors, it mainly discusses the relationship between the changes of our foreign trade policies and terms of trade, especially for the "learn by doing "policy. On the hand of technical factors, the point is to analyze the relationship between the structure of export goods and terms of trade and how the independent innovation could improve the export production structure and terms of trade.
Through the establishment of dynamic evolutionary game model, the paper discusses the evolutionary path of terms of trade. And then, the paper comes to conclusion that China's terms of trade development is tracked inside the bad path by the models of "learning by doing". The asymmetric replication evolutionary model tells the result of developing countries to play a role in foreign trade is a constantly deteriorating terms of trade because of low value export goods. The only way to break this bad circle is to improve their learning ability for technology. But if the "learn by doing" system was still the basic guidelines for China's foreign trade development, the bad path dependence could not be broke out.
From 1992 to 2009, the overall terms of trade has fallen by 55.9% and maintains its deterioration trend. Through analyzing the different commodity's terms of trade, we can see the terms of trade of primary products is also deteriorating from 155.3 to 70.6 decreasing by 54.5%. And the manufactured products decreases from 134.1 to 54.4 by 59.4%. From the point of technology, the rising share of manufactured goods becomes the main reason for the deteriorating terms of trade.
The paper discusses the basic reasons why China's terms of trade continue to deteriorate. From the point of system, "learn by doing "system could not be the best choice of breaking the bad path dependence. And from the point of technology, the decreasing terms of trade due to the low-tech value inside export goods, especially inside the manufactured goods. Hence, the only way to change the unimportant role in the international production chain is to enhance the technological study rate, also can be seen as u. The technical rate of study can be increased by independent innovation. Through the technical innovation to get the access to core technology, the terms of trade could be improved. Government, business and industry should work together to provide relevant guarantee for the development of system and technological policy in order to fundamentally improve China's terms of trade, and strengthen our trade competitiveness.
通过建立动态演化博弈模型与两国贸易模型,对我国价格贸易条件的演化路径进行技术层面的分析。模型结果显示,我国出口价格贸易条件处于技术锁定的不断恶化的路径中。发展中国家参与国际贸易,不断地出口技术含量低的商品,结果是贸易条件不断地恶化,贸易利益减少,处于不利地位。对于发展国家来说,想要打破“路径依赖”,必须提升自身的对于技术的学习能力和速率,才能在与发达国家竞争过程中占有先机。通过建立“干中学”理论模型进行制度层面的分析,得出只有在本国技术水平较高的部门实现知识效率的快速提升,才能使得贸易条件得到改善。但是值得注意的是,“干中学”由于其自身的耗竭性和外生性,并不能从根本上实现中国出口价格贸易条件的动态升级。
中国出口价格贸易条件主要受到制度和技术两个层面的因素影响。从制度方面来说,“干中学”的技术模仿制度由于其自身的局限性,使得技术创新速率的提升成为内生性因素,不能作为突破次优路径依赖的制度选择；从技术方面来说,虽然我国出口商品结构在不断的升级,但是出口价格贸易条件却呈下降的趋势,其原因就在于我国出口商品中工业制成品的技术含量水平较低,其技术提升速率较慢,无法改变其在国际市场中低端的定位,走不出技术模仿的恶性循环。因此,要想消除走出贸易条件恶化的技术锁定效应,就必须调高我国的技术学习速率,也就是提高我国的知识效率u,使其不具有外生性。我国不仅要吸收国外先进技术的益处效应,也要通过自主创新来提高知识效率u。通过自主创新,获得核心技术,实现出口商品技术水平速率提升加快,促使贸易条件动态模型均衡向着良性方向发展。
政府、企业和行业要共同协作,通过建立自主创新的制度保障和技术保证,从根本上改善我国出口价格贸易条件,强化我国贸易竞争力。政府应该建立相应的产业与贸易政策,为建立创新型国家打好基础。同时借鉴发达国家的贸易模式,推进我国市场经济体制改革。企业应注意提升自身的技术创新能力,加快相关核心的高科技含量的技术研制和引进。同时积极扩大海外市场,在新形势下进行海外并购。行业协会也应重点提升其协调和统一的作用,减少内耗,并降低国际贸易摩擦发生的概率。相关行业协会要正确地理解政府政策的意图,并以保护本国企业的确切利益为根本目标。
Terms of trade is a important index to measure a country's trade gains and status. This paper tries to do some research on the development path of terms of trade, the reasons why it is tracked inside the bad path and how to break the path based on the evolutionary economic theory through the establishment of theoretical models and econometric model. Besides, through the collection of data about China's export terms of trade since 1992, the paper does an empirical analysis in order to propose appropriate policies and recommendations to enhance the overall competitiveness of China's foreign trade.
The paper analyses the main factors which could exert effects on terms of trade from the point of system and technology. On the hand of system factors, it mainly discusses the relationship between the changes of our foreign trade policies and terms of trade, especially for the "learn by doing "policy. On the hand of technical factors, the point is to analyze the relationship between the structure of export goods and terms of trade and how the independent innovation could improve the export production structure and terms of trade.
Through the establishment of dynamic evolutionary game model, the paper discusses the evolutionary path of terms of trade. And then, the paper comes to conclusion that China's terms of trade development is tracked inside the bad path by the models of "learning by doing". The asymmetric replication evolutionary model tells the result of developing countries to play a role in foreign trade is a constantly deteriorating terms of trade because of low value export goods. The only way to break this bad circle is to improve their learning ability for technology. But if the "learn by doing" system was still the basic guidelines for China's foreign trade development, the bad path dependence could not be broke out.
From 1992 to 2009, the overall terms of trade has fallen by 55.9% and maintains its deterioration trend. Through analyzing the different commodity's terms of trade, we can see the terms of trade of primary products is also deteriorating from 155.3 to 70.6 decreasing by 54.5%. And the manufactured products decreases from 134.1 to 54.4 by 59.4%. From the point of technology, the rising share of manufactured goods becomes the main reason for the deteriorating terms of trade.
The paper discusses the basic reasons why China's terms of trade continue to deteriorate. From the point of system, "learn by doing "system could not be the best choice of breaking the bad path dependence. And from the point of technology, the decreasing terms of trade due to the low-tech value inside export goods, especially inside the manufactured goods. Hence, the only way to change the unimportant role in the international production chain is to enhance the technological study rate, also can be seen as u. The technical rate of study can be increased by independent innovation. Through the technical innovation to get the access to core technology, the terms of trade could be improved. Government, business and industry should work together to provide relevant guarantee for the development of system and technological policy in order to fundamentally improve China's terms of trade, and strengthen our trade competitiveness.
引文
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[2]Gabaix,X. he Factor Content of Trade:Rejection of the Heckscher-Ohlin-Leontief Hypothesis.Mimeo,MIT.2005.
[3]Hinloopen.Dynamics of Chinese Comparative Advantage. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper,2004.
[4]Arndt S. W.& Kierzkowski H., Fragmentation:New Production Patterns in the World Economy [C], London:Oxford University Press,2001.
[5]Wood A., Value Chains:An Economist s Perspective [J], IDS Bulletin,2001,32 (3).
[6]Cypher,Jam esM. And Dietz,James,L Static and Dynamic Comparative Advantage A. Multi-period Analysis with Declining Term of Trade[J].Journal of Economic Issues,1998,Jun,Vol 32,Issue 2.
[7]Deardorff Alan V., Fragmentation across Cones [Z], Research Seminar in International Economics Working Paper No.427, University of Michigan,1998, August 7.
[8]Feenstra R. C, Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy [J],Journal of Economic Perspective,1998, Fall,12 (4), pp.31-50.
[9]Kannek,A. Terms of Trade,Economic Growth and Trade Pattern:A Small Open-Economy Case.Journal of International Economics.2000,52,169-181.
[10]Howitt. CaPital Accumulation and Innovation in Endogenou Growth. Ohio State University Mimeo.1997.
[11]Tybout,J.R. Internal Returns to Scale as a Source of Comparative Advantage. American Economic Review.1995,83:441-444.
[12]Bowler. The non Darwinian revolution:Reinterpreting a historical myth [M]. Baltimore:Johns Hopkins University Press,1988.
[13]何亚东.《从“要素参与国际分工”到“企业参与国际分工”》,《经济社会体制比较》.2008年第5期,第27页。
[14]李炳炎、向刚.《切实转变经济发展方式是我国未来经济发展的关键》,《毛泽东邓小平理论研究》.2008年第3期,第36页。
[15]张杰、刘志彪.《收入分配机制对自主创新能力的影响研究》,《中州学刊》.2008年第1 期,第67页.
[16]刘佳.基于自主创新的我国比较动态转换路径选择：[硕士学位论文],2008
[17]宋胜洲.基于知识的演化经济学——对基于理性的主流经济学的挑战[M].上海：上海人民出版社,2008.
[17]王滨.科技革命与社会发展——马克思主义科技与人文新视野[M].上海：同济大学出版社,2008.
[18]陈劲,王焕祥.演化经济学[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2008.
[19]何立胜.制度创新与产业变迁[M].中国财政经济出版社,2008.
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