生猪产业链价格传导机制研究
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摘要
猪肉价格高涨时,消费者付出更多的货币,但生产者未必获得更多的利润,似乎零售价格上涨幅度远高于生猪收购价格上涨幅度,即出现了所谓的“农产品价格放大效应”；而当发生疫情或食品安全事件,造成猪肉需求严重下降时,生猪收购价格的下降幅度更大,生猪养殖者福利受损。似乎猪肉产业链的价格传递出现了不对称的传递现象,各主体的福利分配情况也发生了变化。而伴随我国经济转型和市场化进程,省区间生产要素和产品的流动不断提升,我国省区农产品价格间日益呈现出相互依赖和相互影响的特征,这表明我国各省区农产品价格间可能存在着显著的空间交互作用和空间溢出效应。鉴于生猪价格的重要性,对生猪产业链价格传导机制进行深入研究,通过对生猪产业链价格传递的非对称性和空间效应的研究,从纵向和横向两个角度揭示我国生猪产业链价格传导机制,有助于保障我国生猪产业的健康稳定发展,为减缓生猪和猪肉价格的频繁波动等提供决策建议。
本研究的逻辑顺序是：首先从产业集中度和规模化程度、采购和销售、区域布局三个角度系统描述我国生猪产业链主要环节特征,阐述生猪产业链价格差距变动情况和产业政策的演变情况；然后在分析生猪产业链纵向协作与价格传递关系的基础之上,对生猪产业链价格传递非对称性以及距离与价格传递非对称性的关系进行实证分析；在价格横向传导方面,基于生猪价格空间相关性检验,借助空间计量模型研究我国省区生猪价格的空间溢出效应和边际效果。
研究结果表明：长期内,我国生猪产业链价格间存在均衡关系,但短期内,生猪外销区产业链的生产者价格和零售价格间存在非线性调整关系,而自给自足区和调入区的生猪产业链价格间存在线性调整关系；外销区中,四川、湖南和河南省的生猪产业链的价格传递存在负非对称性,而吉林省则存在正非对称性。
生猪价格及其稳定性均存在空间相关性,并且空间相关性随时间逐推移渐增强；省区生猪价格在空间分布上存在不均衡的特征,主要表现为高值-高值集聚和低值-低值集聚现象；生猪价格具有显著的空间溢出效应,需求指数、玉米价格、仔猪价格对本省区生猪价格上涨具有拉动作用,疫情的爆发显著推动本省区生猪价格上涨,生猪价格对仔猪价格和玉米价格的变动比较敏感；仔猪价格、玉米价格的稳定性对生猪价格的稳定性具有正向影响,疫情和金融危机的爆发会对生猪价格的稳定性产生不利影响,相关政策的实施有助于维持生猪价格的稳定性。
基于以上结论,在制定生猪产业价格调控政策、产业政策和价格监测体系时,应充分考虑生猪外销区产业链价格传递的非对称性特征和生猪价格的空间溢出效应。第一,生产成本高,需求大,疫情频发的省区及其周边省区应是生猪价格监测重点,并且有必要把仔猪价格和玉米价格及其稳定性列入生猪价格监测体系内。第二,应尽早发布预警信息,防止外销区价格进入某一门限区间由于收敛速度大造成的大涨大跌现象。第三,局部政策优于全局性政策,生猪主产地区的局部政策的实施可以避免由于在不同地区“复制”政策而浪费的人力、物力和财力,也由于避免地区间相同政策的交互影响而提高政策的针对性和目标性。
When the pork price is skyrocketing, the consumers have to pay more money and the producers gain no more profit, which seems to be that the increase in wholesale price is greater than that of producer price. After the outbreak and food safety incidents, the declining pork demand makes the producer price decrease more severely than wholesale price. It is believed that the price transmission is asymmetric in swine market. Along with China's economic transition and the marketization process, there are drastic changes favorable to the efficient utilization of resources and to the trade of commodities operating among districts, and this has been caused the provincial hog prices showing the spatial interaction and the spatial effect. Therefore, an investigation on the impact factors of hog prices from the view of spatial econometrics is an important supplement to the previous literatures that ignored the spatial effect of provincial prices. The fluctuation of hog and pork prices caused great influence on the residents'life and the health development of the swine industry. Therefore, analyzing vertical price transmission along supply chain and the spatial effect of provincial hog prices could provide relevant policy information on pork price stable and promoting the healthy development of the swine industry.
This research first subscribes the characteristics of the major links of swine market, the fluctuation of price spread of swine market and the relevant policy. Then based on the analysis about the relationship between the vertical coordination and the price transmission, the vertical price transmission mechanism at the farm and retail levels in the China's swine market is investated using the threshold error correction model and the relation between distance and asymmetry price transmission is analyzed. At last, based on the spatial correlation test, the spatial econometric model is used to investigate the spatial effect of hog price and its marginal effect.
The results indicate that there is a long-term relationship between farm and retail prices, and that a short-term threshold adjustment exists between farm and retail prices for hog-export provinces, while short-term linear adjustment for non-hog-export provinces. The results also revealed that the negative asymmetric exist in the price adjustment process for Sichuan, Hunan and Henan provinces, and the positive asymmetric for Jilin province.
The results confirm the existence of spatial correlation for hog prices and the agglomeration effect is significant. The provincial hog prices present disequilibrium characteristics in the spatial distribution. The results also suggest that demand index, piglet price, maize price, and epidemic all positively influence local hog price, and the hog price is more sensitive to the fluctuations of piglet price and maize price. The stability of piglet price and maize price have a positive effect on the stability of hog price, while the outbreak of epidemic and financial crisis negatively influence the stability of hog price, and the relevant policy on swine market help to stable hog price.
Asymmetric price transmission in hog-export provinces and the spatial effects of hog prices, based on the results, should be carefully considered when pork price control policy and industrial policy are being designed. First, the province with higher cost of product, greater demand or frequent outbreaks should be emphasized when the hog-pirce-monitoring-system is established, and maize price, piglet price and their stability should also be included in the monitoring system. Second, the early-warning information should be released as quickly as possible to prevent the price get into the threshold range with a quicker adjustment speed result in huge fluctuation of hog price. Third, local policy is more suited to these results than global policy. The implementation of local policy toward some pig-producing regions can avoid wasted money and effort in duplicating the policy in different regions and even improves the targeting of policy by avoiding the interworking of global policy implemented in each region.
本研究的逻辑顺序是：首先从产业集中度和规模化程度、采购和销售、区域布局三个角度系统描述我国生猪产业链主要环节特征,阐述生猪产业链价格差距变动情况和产业政策的演变情况；然后在分析生猪产业链纵向协作与价格传递关系的基础之上,对生猪产业链价格传递非对称性以及距离与价格传递非对称性的关系进行实证分析；在价格横向传导方面,基于生猪价格空间相关性检验,借助空间计量模型研究我国省区生猪价格的空间溢出效应和边际效果。
研究结果表明：长期内,我国生猪产业链价格间存在均衡关系,但短期内,生猪外销区产业链的生产者价格和零售价格间存在非线性调整关系,而自给自足区和调入区的生猪产业链价格间存在线性调整关系；外销区中,四川、湖南和河南省的生猪产业链的价格传递存在负非对称性,而吉林省则存在正非对称性。
生猪价格及其稳定性均存在空间相关性,并且空间相关性随时间逐推移渐增强；省区生猪价格在空间分布上存在不均衡的特征,主要表现为高值-高值集聚和低值-低值集聚现象；生猪价格具有显著的空间溢出效应,需求指数、玉米价格、仔猪价格对本省区生猪价格上涨具有拉动作用,疫情的爆发显著推动本省区生猪价格上涨,生猪价格对仔猪价格和玉米价格的变动比较敏感；仔猪价格、玉米价格的稳定性对生猪价格的稳定性具有正向影响,疫情和金融危机的爆发会对生猪价格的稳定性产生不利影响,相关政策的实施有助于维持生猪价格的稳定性。
基于以上结论,在制定生猪产业价格调控政策、产业政策和价格监测体系时,应充分考虑生猪外销区产业链价格传递的非对称性特征和生猪价格的空间溢出效应。第一,生产成本高,需求大,疫情频发的省区及其周边省区应是生猪价格监测重点,并且有必要把仔猪价格和玉米价格及其稳定性列入生猪价格监测体系内。第二,应尽早发布预警信息,防止外销区价格进入某一门限区间由于收敛速度大造成的大涨大跌现象。第三,局部政策优于全局性政策,生猪主产地区的局部政策的实施可以避免由于在不同地区“复制”政策而浪费的人力、物力和财力,也由于避免地区间相同政策的交互影响而提高政策的针对性和目标性。
When the pork price is skyrocketing, the consumers have to pay more money and the producers gain no more profit, which seems to be that the increase in wholesale price is greater than that of producer price. After the outbreak and food safety incidents, the declining pork demand makes the producer price decrease more severely than wholesale price. It is believed that the price transmission is asymmetric in swine market. Along with China's economic transition and the marketization process, there are drastic changes favorable to the efficient utilization of resources and to the trade of commodities operating among districts, and this has been caused the provincial hog prices showing the spatial interaction and the spatial effect. Therefore, an investigation on the impact factors of hog prices from the view of spatial econometrics is an important supplement to the previous literatures that ignored the spatial effect of provincial prices. The fluctuation of hog and pork prices caused great influence on the residents'life and the health development of the swine industry. Therefore, analyzing vertical price transmission along supply chain and the spatial effect of provincial hog prices could provide relevant policy information on pork price stable and promoting the healthy development of the swine industry.
This research first subscribes the characteristics of the major links of swine market, the fluctuation of price spread of swine market and the relevant policy. Then based on the analysis about the relationship between the vertical coordination and the price transmission, the vertical price transmission mechanism at the farm and retail levels in the China's swine market is investated using the threshold error correction model and the relation between distance and asymmetry price transmission is analyzed. At last, based on the spatial correlation test, the spatial econometric model is used to investigate the spatial effect of hog price and its marginal effect.
The results indicate that there is a long-term relationship between farm and retail prices, and that a short-term threshold adjustment exists between farm and retail prices for hog-export provinces, while short-term linear adjustment for non-hog-export provinces. The results also revealed that the negative asymmetric exist in the price adjustment process for Sichuan, Hunan and Henan provinces, and the positive asymmetric for Jilin province.
The results confirm the existence of spatial correlation for hog prices and the agglomeration effect is significant. The provincial hog prices present disequilibrium characteristics in the spatial distribution. The results also suggest that demand index, piglet price, maize price, and epidemic all positively influence local hog price, and the hog price is more sensitive to the fluctuations of piglet price and maize price. The stability of piglet price and maize price have a positive effect on the stability of hog price, while the outbreak of epidemic and financial crisis negatively influence the stability of hog price, and the relevant policy on swine market help to stable hog price.
Asymmetric price transmission in hog-export provinces and the spatial effects of hog prices, based on the results, should be carefully considered when pork price control policy and industrial policy are being designed. First, the province with higher cost of product, greater demand or frequent outbreaks should be emphasized when the hog-pirce-monitoring-system is established, and maize price, piglet price and their stability should also be included in the monitoring system. Second, the early-warning information should be released as quickly as possible to prevent the price get into the threshold range with a quicker adjustment speed result in huge fluctuation of hog price. Third, local policy is more suited to these results than global policy. The implementation of local policy toward some pig-producing regions can avoid wasted money and effort in duplicating the policy in different regions and even improves the targeting of policy by avoiding the interworking of global policy implemented in each region.
引文
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