我国生猪生产增长与波动研究
|
摘要
猪粮安天下。改革开放以来,我国生猪业保持快速发展的趋势,同时生猪业发展也面临着重要的问题和挑战:生产波动一直比较频繁且近年来呈加剧趋势,生猪生产方式落后、生产效率不高,饲料、劳动力、土地、资金、环境等因素对生猪生产的制约日益凸现,这些问题将威胁着我国生猪业的长期稳定发展,而保障生猪业的长期稳定发展对提高农民收入、发展农村经济、保障国家食物安全和促进国民社会经济的协调发展具有重要的意义。本文重点对生猪生产增长和生产波动进行深入的研究,运用实证模型进行定量分析,并结合相关经济理论,揭示我国生猪生产增长的动因和造成波动的原因,为建立我国生猪业稳定发展的长效机制提供理论基础和技术参数,并提出针对性的政策建议。
研究表明:1、要素投入量增长对产出的贡献接近50%。在投入要素中,2008年饲料产出弹性1.14,其仔猪产出弹性0.129,其他资本投入产出弹性0.033,劳动投入的产出弹性-0.073;规模弹性1.208。说明目前我国生猪生产仍处在粗放经营向集约经营转变的过程中,产出增长主要依靠增加物质投入数量的增加,饲料投入量的作用最明显,而劳动投入过多,养殖基础设施和技术服务落后,产出水平低,经营规模小对产出增长的不利,但另一方面我国生猪生产总体处于规模报酬递增阶段,规模化发展空间很大。2、全要素生产率(TFP)对产出的贡献达到50.87%。1980-2008年我国生猪业的TFP共增长了64.3%,年均增长率为2.29%;TFP增长呈现的波动性大的特点,说明我国生猪生产受多种因素如自然灾害和疫病等的影响,容易造成生产效率的下降;我国生猪业在不同的发展阶段,TFP增长率及其增长源泉也不相同,总体来说TFP的增长主要来源于规模效率和配置效率改进,技术进步相对缓慢,技术效率增长较小,甚至出现效率倒退。3、生猪供给反应表现为长期弹性大于短期弹性。在短期内,生产对价格的反应不敏感,生猪、饲料、仔猪和劳动力的价格需求弹性均是缺乏弹性的,相对来说,生猪价格和饲料价格对生产的影响较大,要素之间的相互影响比较明显。在长期内,生产对价格的反应十分敏感,影响生猪生产的主要因素是生猪价格、饲料价格和其他资本投入费用,要素之间的相互影响更强。4、我国生猪生产大致经历5个周期,平均周期长度为5.5年,平均波幅为8.3%。周期长度的变动范围在在3到9年之间;从波动幅度来看,大概在7%-9%之间,波长和波幅总体呈逐渐缩小的趋势。5、在生产波动的所有因素综合分析中,外部因素的影响大于内部因素,规模化和能繁母猪的影响大于价格的影响,二年时滞模型最佳。GDP增长率提高1个百分点,会引起第三年猪肉产量指数增加0.68;疫病D1的发生可导致第二年猪肉产量指数下降2.18;政策的实施会引起当年猪肉产量指数增加6.19;生猪价格指数上升1,会引起第二年猪肉产量指数上升0.09;第三年下降0.16;玉米价格指数上升1,会引起第三年猪肉产量指数上升0.13;能繁母猪数量指数增加1,可引起第四年猪肉产量指数同步增加0.23;规模化程度提高1,大致可引起猪肉产量指数连续3年分别下降0.15左右。对无时滞、一年、二年和三年时滞的这四个模型估计结果表明,二年时滞模型估计效果最佳,说明在各种因素发生变动时,二年以后对生产波动的综合影响最为显著,可以用于猪肉产量波动的预测分析。6、未来生猪业的稳定增长,应在加大政策支持和宏观调控的基础上,必须走依靠提高生产效率,发展适度规模化,创新产业化模式,倡导健康养殖的发展道路。
保障生猪业稳定发展的具体建议是: 1、依靠科技进步,提高综合生产率。2、积极推进生产方式转变,促进生产持续增长。3、切实加强疫病防控,减少生产波动。4、继续加大政策支持力度,完善公共服务。5、建立养猪业行业市场预警体系,加强公共服务水平和能力。6、加强畜牧业宏观调控,保障生产稳定发展。
本文创新点:一是研究方法和数据上的创新。本文重点采用定量分析方法,利用实证模型对有关问题进行了更深入细致的分析,区别与以前多数学者的采用定性研究;运用的1980-2008近30年共25个省的面板数据,信息丰富,具有代表性、时效性。二是结论上或观点上的创新。1.运用随机前沿模型对首次尝试把生猪业的TFP分解为技术进步、技术效率、规模效率和配置效率四个部分,并计算出各种投入要素的产出弹性。2.采用约束利润函数模型,计算出投入产出价格的长期弹性和短期弹性,区分不同时期的生猪供给反应程度。3.对影响波动的主要因素进行了细致的分类,在定量分析时加入时滞期变量,使对波动分析更加全面,接近现实。
Pig and food are essential for Chinese residents in the long-time. Since reform and opening of the market, China's pig production has developed rapidly, while faces major problems and challenges . In recent years,pig producing has fluctuated frequently in China and that become more dramatic. This is because of the constraints on pig production appeared such as backward mode of pig production, inefficient of production, as well as feed, labor, land, capital, and environmental factors. Therefore, it is significant to insure pig sector develope steadily in a long run. This article studied the growth and fluctuation of pig production in detail. Both econometric models and corresponding theories were used to reveal reasons of growth and fluctuation of pig production, so as to provide theories and technology parameters, and put forward policy recommendations aimed at the problems.
Some conclusions could be drawn are as follows:
(1) The input factors of hog make contributions about 50% to its output growth. The output elasticity of feed, piglets, labor and other capital inputs are respectively 1.14, 0.129,- 0.073 and 0.033, and the scale elasticity 1.208 in 2008. That Shows pig production has been experiencing the transformation from the extensive to intensive operation in which the number of material inputs is the main source of hog production growth. Among input factors, feed did greater contribution to the output of pig than others , labor was used in excessive, and breeding infrastructure and technical services were also poor.In addition, the scale elasticity above 1 impied increasing return to scale in China.
(2) The total factor productivity (TFP) in pig industry contributed 50.87% towards pig output. From 1980 to 2008, the TFP increased 64.3%, with average growth of 2.29% per year. On the other hand, the TFP changed with high volatility that means that pig production is affected by many factors such as natural disasters and animal epidemics which could cause a decline in productivity. The rate and sources of TFP growth varied with different stages of development in hog industry. As a whole , scale of TFP growth mainly came from improved efficiency and allocative efficiency. Technical advances was relatively slow, and technical efficiency made a little progress, even a regression in some times.
(3) The supply response in hog sector is characterized by the long-term flexibility larger than short-term flexibility. In the short term, hog production is not sensitive to the price, because both supply elasticity of pigs and demand elasticity of feed, piglets and labor are less than 1. Relatively prices of pig and feed made greater impact on pig production . The interaction in input factors was obvious. In the long run, hog production is sensitive to the price ,the main factors affecting pig production are the hog prices, feed prices and other capital investment costs. The interaction in input factor was more obvious than in short term.
(4) China's pig production has gone through five fluctuating cycles, with the average cycle of 5.5 years and the average volatility of 8.3%. The period length change between 3 and 9 years , and the volatility between 7% and 9% . The cycles length and range of the fluctuating were gradually reduced
(5) In all factors affecting the fluctuations of hog output , the influence of external factors was much more than internal factors, and the influence of scale level and sow quantity more than prices, and the model with 2 year delay was best. GDP growth rate increased by 1 % will cause pork output index to rise by 0.68 of the third year. Incidence of the disease can lead to decline 2.18 in pork production index of the second year ,and implementation of the policy will lead to raise by 6.19 in pork production index. Pig price index increased by 1 will cause pork production index to rise by 0.09 of the second year. Corn price index increased by 1 will cause pork production index to rise by 0.13 of the third year . Sow qualitity index increased by 1 can lead to pork production index to rise by 0.23 of fourth year. Scale level increased by 1 can lead to pork production index to drop 0.15 of consecutive 3 years . Estimate results of four models with free, one, two, and three year delayed showed that the model with two time delayed was the best, then it could be used for forecast of pork production volatility.
(6) The future development of pig industry has to depend on improving productivity, moderate scale, innovating mode of industrialization, promoting healthy culture based on the government’s assistant and macro-control.
The specific suggestion are as follows:1. Improve the overall productivity by scientific-technical progress;2. Actively promote the production mode and the sustained growth of production;3. Strengthen disease prevention and control to reduce production fluctuations;4.further greatly policy support and improve public services;5.Establish early warning system of the pig industry and upgrate the public service level and capacity;6. Strengthen livestock macro-control and protect the stable development of production.
The innovation of this paper are as listed below: 1. This paper focused on quantitative analysis method, make depth and detailed analysis of the relevant concerns with an empirical model,which is distinction with the previous qualitative research made by Most scholars;2. This paper used the panel data of 25 provinces in 1980-2008,which made the information rich, representative and timely;3. This paper first decomposed hog industry TFP into technological progress, technical efficiency, scale efficiency and allocative efficiency by using stochastic frontier model, and got the output elasticity of various input ;4. Calculate long-term flexibility and short-term flexibility of the input demand and pig supply of by using Constrained Profit Function model,and distinguish the degree different supply response of live pigs during different times;5.Classify the main factors affecting the fluctuations detailly and add demurrage variable to quantitative analysis ,which made the analysis of the fluctuation more comprehensive and closer to reality with.
研究表明:1、要素投入量增长对产出的贡献接近50%。在投入要素中,2008年饲料产出弹性1.14,其仔猪产出弹性0.129,其他资本投入产出弹性0.033,劳动投入的产出弹性-0.073;规模弹性1.208。说明目前我国生猪生产仍处在粗放经营向集约经营转变的过程中,产出增长主要依靠增加物质投入数量的增加,饲料投入量的作用最明显,而劳动投入过多,养殖基础设施和技术服务落后,产出水平低,经营规模小对产出增长的不利,但另一方面我国生猪生产总体处于规模报酬递增阶段,规模化发展空间很大。2、全要素生产率(TFP)对产出的贡献达到50.87%。1980-2008年我国生猪业的TFP共增长了64.3%,年均增长率为2.29%;TFP增长呈现的波动性大的特点,说明我国生猪生产受多种因素如自然灾害和疫病等的影响,容易造成生产效率的下降;我国生猪业在不同的发展阶段,TFP增长率及其增长源泉也不相同,总体来说TFP的增长主要来源于规模效率和配置效率改进,技术进步相对缓慢,技术效率增长较小,甚至出现效率倒退。3、生猪供给反应表现为长期弹性大于短期弹性。在短期内,生产对价格的反应不敏感,生猪、饲料、仔猪和劳动力的价格需求弹性均是缺乏弹性的,相对来说,生猪价格和饲料价格对生产的影响较大,要素之间的相互影响比较明显。在长期内,生产对价格的反应十分敏感,影响生猪生产的主要因素是生猪价格、饲料价格和其他资本投入费用,要素之间的相互影响更强。4、我国生猪生产大致经历5个周期,平均周期长度为5.5年,平均波幅为8.3%。周期长度的变动范围在在3到9年之间;从波动幅度来看,大概在7%-9%之间,波长和波幅总体呈逐渐缩小的趋势。5、在生产波动的所有因素综合分析中,外部因素的影响大于内部因素,规模化和能繁母猪的影响大于价格的影响,二年时滞模型最佳。GDP增长率提高1个百分点,会引起第三年猪肉产量指数增加0.68;疫病D1的发生可导致第二年猪肉产量指数下降2.18;政策的实施会引起当年猪肉产量指数增加6.19;生猪价格指数上升1,会引起第二年猪肉产量指数上升0.09;第三年下降0.16;玉米价格指数上升1,会引起第三年猪肉产量指数上升0.13;能繁母猪数量指数增加1,可引起第四年猪肉产量指数同步增加0.23;规模化程度提高1,大致可引起猪肉产量指数连续3年分别下降0.15左右。对无时滞、一年、二年和三年时滞的这四个模型估计结果表明,二年时滞模型估计效果最佳,说明在各种因素发生变动时,二年以后对生产波动的综合影响最为显著,可以用于猪肉产量波动的预测分析。6、未来生猪业的稳定增长,应在加大政策支持和宏观调控的基础上,必须走依靠提高生产效率,发展适度规模化,创新产业化模式,倡导健康养殖的发展道路。
保障生猪业稳定发展的具体建议是: 1、依靠科技进步,提高综合生产率。2、积极推进生产方式转变,促进生产持续增长。3、切实加强疫病防控,减少生产波动。4、继续加大政策支持力度,完善公共服务。5、建立养猪业行业市场预警体系,加强公共服务水平和能力。6、加强畜牧业宏观调控,保障生产稳定发展。
本文创新点:一是研究方法和数据上的创新。本文重点采用定量分析方法,利用实证模型对有关问题进行了更深入细致的分析,区别与以前多数学者的采用定性研究;运用的1980-2008近30年共25个省的面板数据,信息丰富,具有代表性、时效性。二是结论上或观点上的创新。1.运用随机前沿模型对首次尝试把生猪业的TFP分解为技术进步、技术效率、规模效率和配置效率四个部分,并计算出各种投入要素的产出弹性。2.采用约束利润函数模型,计算出投入产出价格的长期弹性和短期弹性,区分不同时期的生猪供给反应程度。3.对影响波动的主要因素进行了细致的分类,在定量分析时加入时滞期变量,使对波动分析更加全面,接近现实。
Pig and food are essential for Chinese residents in the long-time. Since reform and opening of the market, China's pig production has developed rapidly, while faces major problems and challenges . In recent years,pig producing has fluctuated frequently in China and that become more dramatic. This is because of the constraints on pig production appeared such as backward mode of pig production, inefficient of production, as well as feed, labor, land, capital, and environmental factors. Therefore, it is significant to insure pig sector develope steadily in a long run. This article studied the growth and fluctuation of pig production in detail. Both econometric models and corresponding theories were used to reveal reasons of growth and fluctuation of pig production, so as to provide theories and technology parameters, and put forward policy recommendations aimed at the problems.
Some conclusions could be drawn are as follows:
(1) The input factors of hog make contributions about 50% to its output growth. The output elasticity of feed, piglets, labor and other capital inputs are respectively 1.14, 0.129,- 0.073 and 0.033, and the scale elasticity 1.208 in 2008. That Shows pig production has been experiencing the transformation from the extensive to intensive operation in which the number of material inputs is the main source of hog production growth. Among input factors, feed did greater contribution to the output of pig than others , labor was used in excessive, and breeding infrastructure and technical services were also poor.In addition, the scale elasticity above 1 impied increasing return to scale in China.
(2) The total factor productivity (TFP) in pig industry contributed 50.87% towards pig output. From 1980 to 2008, the TFP increased 64.3%, with average growth of 2.29% per year. On the other hand, the TFP changed with high volatility that means that pig production is affected by many factors such as natural disasters and animal epidemics which could cause a decline in productivity. The rate and sources of TFP growth varied with different stages of development in hog industry. As a whole , scale of TFP growth mainly came from improved efficiency and allocative efficiency. Technical advances was relatively slow, and technical efficiency made a little progress, even a regression in some times.
(3) The supply response in hog sector is characterized by the long-term flexibility larger than short-term flexibility. In the short term, hog production is not sensitive to the price, because both supply elasticity of pigs and demand elasticity of feed, piglets and labor are less than 1. Relatively prices of pig and feed made greater impact on pig production . The interaction in input factors was obvious. In the long run, hog production is sensitive to the price ,the main factors affecting pig production are the hog prices, feed prices and other capital investment costs. The interaction in input factor was more obvious than in short term.
(4) China's pig production has gone through five fluctuating cycles, with the average cycle of 5.5 years and the average volatility of 8.3%. The period length change between 3 and 9 years , and the volatility between 7% and 9% . The cycles length and range of the fluctuating were gradually reduced
(5) In all factors affecting the fluctuations of hog output , the influence of external factors was much more than internal factors, and the influence of scale level and sow quantity more than prices, and the model with 2 year delay was best. GDP growth rate increased by 1 % will cause pork output index to rise by 0.68 of the third year. Incidence of the disease can lead to decline 2.18 in pork production index of the second year ,and implementation of the policy will lead to raise by 6.19 in pork production index. Pig price index increased by 1 will cause pork production index to rise by 0.09 of the second year. Corn price index increased by 1 will cause pork production index to rise by 0.13 of the third year . Sow qualitity index increased by 1 can lead to pork production index to rise by 0.23 of fourth year. Scale level increased by 1 can lead to pork production index to drop 0.15 of consecutive 3 years . Estimate results of four models with free, one, two, and three year delayed showed that the model with two time delayed was the best, then it could be used for forecast of pork production volatility.
(6) The future development of pig industry has to depend on improving productivity, moderate scale, innovating mode of industrialization, promoting healthy culture based on the government’s assistant and macro-control.
The specific suggestion are as follows:1. Improve the overall productivity by scientific-technical progress;2. Actively promote the production mode and the sustained growth of production;3. Strengthen disease prevention and control to reduce production fluctuations;4.further greatly policy support and improve public services;5.Establish early warning system of the pig industry and upgrate the public service level and capacity;6. Strengthen livestock macro-control and protect the stable development of production.
The innovation of this paper are as listed below: 1. This paper focused on quantitative analysis method, make depth and detailed analysis of the relevant concerns with an empirical model,which is distinction with the previous qualitative research made by Most scholars;2. This paper used the panel data of 25 provinces in 1980-2008,which made the information rich, representative and timely;3. This paper first decomposed hog industry TFP into technological progress, technical efficiency, scale efficiency and allocative efficiency by using stochastic frontier model, and got the output elasticity of various input ;4. Calculate long-term flexibility and short-term flexibility of the input demand and pig supply of by using Constrained Profit Function model,and distinguish the degree different supply response of live pigs during different times;5.Classify the main factors affecting the fluctuations detailly and add demurrage variable to quantitative analysis ,which made the analysis of the fluctuation more comprehensive and closer to reality with.
引文
1. Niemira Michael P.Klein Philip A,邱东,曾宪报,汤光华,等,译.1994金融与经济周期预测[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1998:131～136.
2. Robin D’Arcy,Gary Storey.中国生猪周期理论与模式评估[R].中国一加拿大农业发展项目,2000:1～64.
3. Wilfried Wesselink,王红戈译.世界养猪生产的巨大差异与机遇.中国牧业通讯,2004,19:68～71.
4.蔡贤恩.我国现行粮食价格政策面临的问题与对策研究[J].技术经济,2000,9:79～83.
5.曹暕.建国以来我国生猪供给周期波动分析.中国青年农业经济学者年会论文集.北京,2002.
6.陈蓉.规模化生产对我国生猪生产波动的影响分析.乡镇经济,2009,25(10):100～104.
7.陈蓉.我国生猪生产波动周期分析.农业技术经济,2009,3:77～86.
8.陈诗波,王亚静,李崇光.中国生猪生产效率及影响因素分析.农业现代化研究,2008,1:40～44.
9.陈顺友,熊远著,邓昌彦.规模化养猪生产波动的成因及其抗风险能力初探.农业技术经济,2000,6:6～9.
10.陈顺友,张金龙.生猪生产波动的成因及对策.农业经济问题,1995,9:25～27.
11.邓力群.当代中国的畜牧业,当代中国丛书.北京:当代中国出版社,1991.
12.邓蓉,张存根.中国畜牧业发展研究.北京:中国农业出版社,2005.
13.董恒年.中国生猪产业发展的趋势、矛盾、战略与政策研究.北京电子科技学院学报,2005,3:23～28.
14.冯海发、王广森、吴永祥.农业总生产率研究.北京:天则出版社,1989.
15.冯永辉.我国生猪养殖区域布局变化趋势.畜牧市场,2006,3:32～35.
16.傅晓霞,吴利学.随机前沿生产前沿方法的发展及其在中国的应用.南开经济研究,2006,2:132-143.
17.高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模.北京,清华大学出版社,2006.
18.谷彬.改革开放以来中国服务业区域效率测算与分解-基于随机前沿模型的实证研究.珠江经济,2008,10:65～85.
19.关锐捷.中国农村改革开放二十年.石家庄:河北科学技术出版社,1998.
20.郭京堂,王慧文,郭沛.论当前猪肉涨价的原因与对策.中国农村经济,1995,2:61～63.
21.郭荣俊,张如意等。陕西省生猪生产周期波动规模研究.西北农业大学学报,1991,9:80～84.
22.国家发展和改革委员会价格司.全国农产品成本收益资料汇编.北京:中国统计局,1980-2009.
23.国家统计局.中国统计年鉴.北京:中国统计局出版社,1980～2009.
24.韩俊,秦中春.我国新一轮生猪周期波动分析.今日畜牧兽医,2007,9:3～6.
25.韩俊,秦中春.我国新一轮生猪周期波动分析.今日畜牧兽医,2007,9:3～6.
26.何枫.SFA模型及其在我国技术效率测算中的应用.系统工程理论与实践. 2004,5:47～51.
27.何广燕.生猪养殖链的利益联结问题弹性.经济师,2008,3:230～231.
28.何晓群.试论我国生猪生产波动的成因及弱化波动的对策.农业经济问题,1990,10:54～57.
29.何新安,熊启泉.1993-2005年广东农业生产率的变动与分解——基于Malmquist生产率指数的实证分析.南方经济,2009,2:69～80.
30.何信龙.中国养猪业发展趋势.今日畜牧兽医,2007,10:5～6.
31.胡浩,应瑞瑶,刘佳.中国生猪产地移动的经济分析.中国农村经济,2005,12:46～52.
32.胡凯.我国生猪供应链的现状问题与发展趋势.安徽农业科学,2007,35(12):3667～3668.
33.湖南大学课题组.湖南生猪生产波动实证研究.财经理论与实践,2003,1:120～122.
34.黄峰岩.有关生猪产销波动的分析与思考.江西农业经济.2000,4:54～55.
35.黄世洪.生猪产销波动及基本成因分析.中国农村经济,1995,11:39～41.
36.黄英伟,汪娟.中国生猪生产与粮食生产关系的变迁.新疆农业科学,2007,44(S2):212～216.
37.贾幼陵.畜牧业发展的制约因素及其宏观调控问题.中国农村经济,,1999.1:41～46.
38.贾幼陵.畜牧业发展的制约因素及其宏观调控问题.中国农村经济,1999, l:21一24
39.江西省价格理论研究所课题组等.生猪价格周期波动及其对策研究.价格月刊,2009,12:22～32.
40.蒋乃华.中国畜产品供给需求与贸易行为研究.【博士后学位论文】.北京:中国农业大学,2002.
41.康大夫.建立现代生猪产业体系—关于当前生猪额发展的建议.山西农业,2006,20:40～41.
42.康大夫.建立现代生猪产业体系—关于当前生猪业发展的建议.山西农业,2006,20:7～9.
43.科埃利著,王忠玉译.效率与生产率分析引论.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002.
44.匡远配.湖南省生猪产业波动的特征、原因及其对策.农业现代化研究,2009,3:149～153.
45.李秉龙,何秋红.中国猪肉价格短期波动及其原因分析.农业经济问题,2007,10:18～21.
46.李谷成,冯中朝.农户家庭经营～1技术效率与全要素生产率增长分解(1999-2003).数量经济技术经济研究,2007,24(8):25～34.
47.李桦.生猪饲养规模及其成本效益分析【.博士学位论文】.杨陵:西北农林科技大学,2008.
48.李建平,张存根.加入WTO对我国养猪业的影响及对策.农业经济问题,2000,4:13～16.
49.李京文,鈡学义.中国生产率分析前沿.北京:社会科学文献出版社,2006.
50.李静,吕永成.广西农业增长的要素分析及对策研究.广西财经学院学报,2006,6(19):25～28.
51.李强,张林秀.利润函数方法在农产品生产估计中的运用.统计与决策,2007,16:26～29.
52.李清宏,韩俊文.改革开放以来中国养猪生产回顾分析与展望.“腾骏杯”中国改革开放养猪30年大型征文比赛优秀论文集,2006,223～229.
53.李双杰,左宝祥.全要素生产率测度方法评析.经济师,2008,5:15～16.
54.李子奈.计量经济学——研究方法和应用.北京:清华大学出版社,1992.
55.梁振华,张存根.我国生猪区域产销的变动趋势与发展的思考.中国农村观察,1998,1:62～65.
56.林祥金.面对加入WTO对我国畜牧业比较优势的分析.当代畜牧,2001,4:1～3.
57.林祥金.中国农区畜牧业经济问题.北京:中国农业科技出版社,1994.
58.林智元.论我国的生猪生产波动.农业经济问题,1990,5:16～19.
59.刘海良.我国养猪业概况及国外养猪业发展趋势.中国牧业网[R],www.china-ah.com,2002-12-17.
60.刘小二,谢月华.基于SFA我国区域全要素生产率差异的实证研究.统计教育,2009,7:32～37.
61.罗伯特·M·索洛.经济增长因素分析[M].北京:商务印书馆,1991.
62.马恒运,唐仓华,Allan Rae.中国牛奶生产的伞要素生产率分析[J].中国农村经济,2007(2):40-48.
63.马文杰,冯中朝.基于Nerlove模型的中国小麦供给反映研究.技术经济,2009,3:50～52.
64.孟令杰,张红梅.中国小麦生产的技术效率地区差异.南京农业大学学报,2005,4(2):13～16.
65.孟令杰,中国农业产出技术效率动态研究.农业经济经济,2000,5:1～4.
66.农业部.中国畜牧业年鉴.北京:中国农业出版社,1999～2009.
67.农业部.中国畜牧业统计(1949～1989).北京:中国经济出版社,1990.
68.农业部生猪波动规律性研究课题组.掌握发展规律、稳定生猪生产——关于我国生猪生产和价格波动情况的分析.中国信息网,www.agri.gov.cn,2007-12-04.
69.农业部畜牧司.生猪生产文件资料汇编(内部资料).2007.
70.綦颖,吕杰,宋连喜.生猪价格波动的经济学分析.中国畜牧杂志,2007,2(43):31～35.
71.綦颖,宋连喜.生猪市场周期性波动的原因分析与缓解对策.中国畜牧杂,2006,42(36):15～18.
72.綦颖.中国市场价格波动研究.【博士学位论文】.沈阳:沈阳农业大学,2009.
73.钱灿.生产率研究的前沿方法.统计与决策,2006,13:11～12.
74.乔纳森.生产率与美国经济增长.北京:经济科学出版社,1989.
75.沈镇昭.新时期畜牧业经济问题研究.北京:中国农业出版社,2005.
76.石有龙.生猪生产及其价格变化规律.猪业科学,2008,4:60～61.
77.司伟,王秀清.中国糖料的供给反应[J].中国农村观察,2OO6(4):2～11.
78.宋周,何燕.当期生猪产业发展的主要问题与对策思路.农村经济,2004,3:41～44.
79.孙德林.社会化生猪流通体制的曙光.猪业科学,2006,23(8):36～38.
80.孙政才.农业农村改革发展30年.北京:中国农业出版社,2008.
81.孙志强.我国生猪市场“蛛网现象”的本质、根源和破解措施.【硕士学位论文】.北京:对外经贸大学,2007.
82.田露,张越杰.吉林省农户养猪生产效率分析.吉林农业大学学报,2008,30(5):764～768.
83.田茂源.农村养猪存在的问题和对策.畜禽业,2005,12:42～43.
84.万明春.猪肉加工现状与发展趋势.四川畜牧兽医,2008,5:8～10.
85.王兵,颜鹏飞.技术效率、技术进步与中国生产率增长.CCER学刊,2004,3:127～151.
86.王德文,黄季煜.双轨制度下中国农户粮食供给反应分析[J].经济研究,2000,11:55～65.
87.王芳,陈俊安.我国生猪市场波动规模及平稳供给对策.中国畜牧杂志.2009,45(10):8～10.
88.王明利,王济民.本论生猪市场波动暴露的问题及启示.中国畜牧杂志,2007,22:4～7.
89.王明利,王济民.畜牧业增长方式转变:现状评价与实现对策.农业经济问题,2007,8:49～54.
90.王千六,李强.我国生猪产业市场机制的缺陷及其对策.农业现代化研究.2009,5:292～297.
91.王伟,张志强.中国与世界生猪生产和贸易状况分析.现代化农业,2004,3:26～29
92.王秀清,李德发.生猪生产的国际环境与竞争力研究.中国农村经济,1998,8::5～6.
93.王艳阳,林祥金.论生猪生产周期波动的原因及环境的对策.中国农业经济,1999,11:47～51.
94.王益松.中国农业波动周期与预警分析.农业经济问题,2004,1:38:42.
95.王征兵.四川省散养户饲养生猪的生产效率评价.安徽农业科学,2008,36(26):111354～11356.
96.吴方卫,孟令杰.中国农业的增长与效率.上海:上海财经大学出版社,2004.
97.吴双.全要素生产率测算的参数方法与非参数方法之比较.时代经贸,2008,2:63～64.
98.武深树,谭美英.生猪产业安全的长效发展制度创新.猪业科学,2007,11:38～42.
99.晓白.我国屠宰行业存在的问题及成因分析.中外食品,2006,5:14～18.
100.辛贤,谭向勇.中国生猪和猪肉价格波动因素测定.中国农村经济1999,5:28～34.
101.辛贤.生猪和猪肉价格形成研究.【博士学位论文】.北京:中国农业大学,1998.
102.熊俊.从要素投入和全要素生产率看经济增长理论.江西社会科学,2002,9:49～51.
103.阳国亮,何元庆.全要素生产率增长的度量方法.学术论坛,2005,6:87～90.
104.杨朝英,徐学荣.中国生猪生产支持政策对价格调控的有效性分析.农业现代化研究,2008,9:564～567.
105.杨顺元.全要素生产率理论及实证研究.【硕士论文】.天津:天津大学,2006.
106.杨湘华.中国生猪业生产的效率及其影响因素分析.【硕士学位论文】.南京:南京农业大学,2008.
107.姚金观等.中国农产品—流通体制与价格制度.北京:中国物价出版社,1995.
108.姚民朴.中国养猪业现状与发展研究.2009年全球猪业大会论坛集,2009.
109.姚琼,朱能五.影响农户养猪产出增长的因素分析.中国农村观察,2006,6:49～51.
110.易敢峰.中美养猪业之比较和中国未来规模化养猪之挑战.猪业科学,2007,3:16～20.
111.殷传麟,周冰冰.生猪价格:波动于抗波动.价格理论与实践,1997,(4):19～22.
112.虞晓红.经济增长理论演进与经济增长模型浅析.生产力研究,2005,2:12～14.
113.张空等.中国养猪业的波动及其对策.农业技术经济,1996 ,6: 24～26.
114.张存根.转型中的中国畜牧业:趋势与政策调整.北京:中国农业出版社,2006.
115.张汇弟.制约生猪业发展的瓶颈.畜牧市场,11～13
116.张月瑶.发展生猪生产与保障猪肉供应中政府的作为.江苏商论,2008,4:40～41.
117.章祥荪,贵斌威.中国全要素生产率分析:Malmquist指数法评述与应用.数量经济技术经济研究,2008,6:11122.
118.赵奉军.基于谱分析的中国生猪周期波动研究.统计与信息论坛,2009,12:27～32.
119.赵亮,陶红军.湖北省畜牧业生产技术效率的测算及影响因素分析.畜禽业,2006,11:8:
13.
120.郑华,张福权.我国养殖业市场波动与分析.动物科学与动物医学.2005,11:28～30.
121.郑京海,胡鞍钢.中国改革时期省际生产率增长变化的实证分析( 1970- 2001年) .经济学, 2005,2:263～296.
122.郑曙东,孙瑜,余爱民.生猪市场大起大落中的政府责任,南风窗,2007,8:65～67.
123.周礼.中国养猪业报告.中美合作项目研究报告,1998.
124.周礼.转变畜牧业增长方式的思路.中国农村经济,1997,4:57～62.
125.周胜利.我国生猪产业发展问题研究.【硕士论文】.武汉:华中农业大学,2005.
126.周晓艳,韩朝华.中国地区间生产效率与全要素生产率增长率分解(1996-2006).中国各地区经济增长差异的制度分析项目研究成果之一, 2006.
127.周异.基于繁殖规律的生猪市场供应模型.华南农业大学学报,2009,1:47～51.
128.周咏.散养户和专业户饲养生猪的生产效率比较.农业技术经济,1999,3:36～39.
129.朱希刚.我国“九五”时期农业科技进步贡献率的测算.农业经济问题,2002,5:12～13.
130.朱希刚.我国农业科技进步贡献率测算方法[M] .北京:中国农业出版社,1997.
131.朱希刚.经济分析和农业技术方法及应用.中国农业出版社,1997.
132.朱希刚.农业技术进步及其“七五”期间贡献份额的测算分析.农业技术经济,1993,9:30～34.
133. Afriat, S. Efficiency estimation of production functions. International Economic Review 1972,13:568～598.
134. Aigner, J., Lovell, K. and Schmidt, P. 1977.Formulation and Estimation of Stochastic Frontier Production Function Models. Journal of Econometric, 1977, 6:21～37.
135. Arnold B.Larson.The Hog Cycle as Hanllonie Motion.Journal of Farm Eeonomies,1964, 46(2):375～386.
136. Atkinson, S. E. and R. Halvorsen.“Parametric Tests for Static and Dynamic Equilibrium.”Journal of Econometrics.1988, 85:33～55.
137. Balk, B. M. (1998). Industrial Price, Quantity, and Productivity Indices: The Micro-Economic Theory and anApplication. Boston/Dordrech/London: Kluwer Academic Publishers,1998.
138. Balk, B. M. Scale Efficiency and Productivity Change. Journal of Productivity Analysis , 2001,15:159～183.
139. Ball, V.E. Modeling Supply Response in a Multiproduct Framework. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1988,70(4): 813～825.
140. Ball, V.E. Output, Input, and Productivity Measurement in U.S. Agriculture, 1948-79. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1985,67(3): 475～486.
141. Banker, R. D. and R. M. Thrall. Estimation of returns to scale using data envelopment analysis. European Journal of Operational Research,1992, 62:74～84.
142. Banker, R. D. Estimating the Most Productive Scale Size using Data Envelopment Analysis. European Journal of Operational Research ,1984, 17:3544.
143. Battese, E. and Coelli, T. A Model of Technical Inefficiency Effects in Stochastic Frontier Production for Panel Data. Empirical Economics, 1995, 20: 325-332.
144. Battese, E. and Coelli, T. Frontier Production Functions, Technical Efficiency and Panel Data:With Application to Paddy Farmers in India. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 1992, 3:153～169.
145. Battese, G. and T. J. Coelli. (1992). Frontier Production Functions, Technical Efficiency and Panel Data: With Application to Paddy Farmers in India. Journal of Productivity Analysis,1992 ,3:153～169.
146. Battese, G. E., &T. J. Coelli. A Model for Technical Inefficiency Effects in a Stochastic Frontier Production Function for Panel Data.Empirical Economics.1995,20(2), 325～332
147. Battese, G.E., and T.J. Coelli. Frontier Production Functions, TechnicalEfficiency and Panel Data: With Application to Paddy Farmers in India.Journal of Productivity Analysis, 1992, 3: 153-169.
148. Binswanger, H. The Measurement of Technical Change Biases with Many factors of Production. The American Economic Review.1974, 64:964～976.
149. Breimyer, H. F. Emerging Phenomenon: A Cycle in Hogs. J. Farm Econ. 1959,41: 760-768.
150. Brümmer, B., T. Glauben and G. Thijssen. Decomposition of Productivity Growth Using Distance Function: The Case of Dairy farms in Three European Countries. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2002,84:628-644.
151. C. Clare Hinrichs and Rick Welsh. The Effects of The Industrialization of US Livestock Agriculture on Promoting Sustainable Production Practices. Agriculture and Human Values, 2003, 20: 125～141.
152. C. Scott Johnson and Kenneth A. Foster. Risk Preferences and Contracting in the U.S. Hog Industry. J Agr and Applied Econ, 1994, 26(2) :393～405.
153. Chavas, J-P., Holt, M. On non-linear dynamics: the case of the pork cycle. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1991,73:819～828.
154. Chow, G. C. Analysis and Control of Dynamic Economic Systems. New York: Wiley,1975.
155. Christian Bosssen, John D .Glenn Grimes.Production and Mariketing Characteristics of U.S. Pork Producers.Agricultural Economics Working Paper,2004,4.
156. Coelli, T.J., D. S.Rao, C.J. O’Donnell, and G.E. Battese. An Introduction to Efficiency and Productivity Analysis. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers,1998.
157. Coelli,T.J..A Guide to FRONTIER 4.1:A Computer Program for Stochastic Frontier Production and Cost Function Estimation.CEPAWorking Papers,1996
158. Curtis S.E. Environmental management in animal agriculture. Iowa State University Press,1983.
159. Denny, M., M. Fuss and L.Waverman. The Measurement and Interpretation of Total Factor Productivity in Regulated Industries with an Application to Canadian Telecommunications. Productivity Measurement in Regulated Industries. New York: Academic Press, 1981.
160. Dermot J.Hays, Andew Schmitz. Hog Cycles and Countereyelical Production Response.Ameriean Joumal of Agricultural Eeonomies,1987,69(4): 762～770.
161. Dillon, John L. The Analysis of Response in Crop and Livestock Production. Oxford, U.K: Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1977.
162. Fan, S. Production and Productivity Growth in Chinese Agriculture: New Measurement and Evidence. Food Policy, 1997,22(3): 213～228.
163. Farrell, J. The Measurement of Productive Efficiency. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 1957, A:253-282.
164. Farrell, M. J. (1957). The Measurement of Productive Efficiency. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 1957,120:253～281.
165. F?rsund, F. R. The Malmquist Productivity Index, TFP and Scale. Taipei International Conference on Efficiency and Productivity Growth, 1997, 6:20～21.
166. Fuller, F., F. Tuan and E. Wailes. Rising Demand for Meat: Who Will Feed China’s Hogs. China’s Food and Agriculture: Issues for the 21st Century / AIB 775. Economic Research Service/USDA. 2002.
167. Futrell, G., Grimes, G., and Mueller. Understanding Hog Production and Price Cycles.
168. Grifell, E. and C. A. Knox Lovell. The Sources of Productivity Change in Spanish Banking. European Journal of Operational Research, 1997, 98, 364～380.
169. Griffiths, G.R. A note on the pig cycle in Australia. Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1977,21:130-139.
170. Halverson M.K. Using nature as both mentor and model: animal welfare research and development in sustainable swine production. Dept. of Agricultural Ecortomics, University of Minnesota, Staff paper 1991, 91～126.
171. Hengyun Ma, Allan N Rae and Jikun Huang . Livestock Productivity in China: Data Revision and Total Factor Productivity Decomposition. Working Paper, Centre for Applied Economics and Policy Studies Massey University, 2001,4:1～31.
172. Honeyman M.S. Sustainable swine production.Minnesota Extension Service,1990
173. Hurt, C. Industrialization in the Pork Industry. Choices ,1994, 4: 9～13.
174. J.Scott Shonkwiler and Thomas H.Spreen.Statistical Significance and Stability of The Hog Cycle.Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics,1986,12:227～233.
175. Jelavich, M. S. Distributed Lag Estimation of Harmonic Motion in the Hog Market. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1973,55(2): 223～224.
176. Key, N., and W. McBride. Do Contracts Raise Hog Farm Productivity? An Instrumental Variables Approach. Portland:American Agricultural Economics Association, 2007.
177. Kliebenstein, J., and J.D. Lawrence. Contracting and Vertical Coordination in the U.S. Pork Industry. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1995,77:12～23.
178. Kumbhakar, S. C. and C. A. K. Lovell. Stochastic Frontier Analysis. Cambridge University Press, 2000.
179. Kumbhakar, S. Estimation and Decomposition of Productivity Change When Production Is Not Efficient:A Panel Data Approach. Econometric Reviews,2000, 19(4):425～460.
180. LarryD.Stearns, Timothy A. Petry.Hog Marktcycles. http://www.ag.ndsu.edu.1996,1,EC-1101.
181. Larson, A.B.The hog cycle as harmonic motion. Journal of Farm Economics, 1964,46 :375-86.
182. Liu,QFW. Price relations among hog,corn.and soybean meal futures.Journalof Futures Markets, 2005, 25(5):419～514.
183. ltshak Borosh,Hovav TalPaz.Multi一Frequeney Cobweb Model:Decomposition of the Hog Cycle Comment. Ameriean JoumalofAgrieultUralEeonomies,1975, 57(1) :132～133
184. Ludena, C. Impact of productivity growth in crops and livestock on world food trade patterns. Presented to 7th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis. Washington D.C., USA:2004,6:17～19.
185. LUIS OREA. Parametric Decomposition of a Generalized Malmquist Productivity Index.Journal of Productivity Analysis ,2002,18:5～22.
186. Ma, Hengyun and Rae Allan. Hog Production in China: Technological Bias and Factor Demand. Working Paper. Massey University, 2004,7:1～23.
187. MacDonald, J.M., and M. Ollinger. Scale Economies and Consolidation in Hog Slaughter. American Journal of Agricultural Economics ,2000, 82::334～346.
188. McBride, W. and N. Key. Economic and Structural Relationships in U.S. Hog Production. Washington DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, ERS, Agricultural Economic Report, 2002,12.
189. Metcalf, M.R. Environmental Regulation and Implicationsfor the U.S. Hog and Pork Industries. Ph.D. Dissertation, North Carolina State University, 2000.
190. Nigel Key and William McBride.Production Conrtacts and Producitivity in the U.S. Hong Sector. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2003, 2:121～133.
191. Nigel Key and William McBride.The Changing Economics of U.S. Hog Production.Economic Research Report ,2007,52:1～45.
192. Pork Industry Handbook. Iowa State University,1989.
193. Rae A. N., and T. Hertel. Future Development in Global Livestock and Grains Markets: The Impact of Livestock Productivity Convergence in Asian-Pacific. The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2000,44:393～422.
194. Ray, S. C. Measuring Scale Efficiency from a Translog Production Function. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 1998, 11:183～194.
195. Rhodes, V.J. The Industrialization of Hog Production. Review of Agricultural Economics,1995,17:107～18.
196. Sealey, C. W. and J. T. Lindley. Inputs, Outputs, and a Theory of Production and Cost at Depository Financial Institutions. Journal of Finance,1977,32(4):1251～1266.
197. Shonkwiler, J. S. and T. H. Spreen. A Dynamic Regression Model of the U.S. Hog Market. Canada Journal of Agricultural Economics,1982, 30: 37～48.
198. Simpson, J. R. China’s Ability to Feed its Livestock in the Next Century. Asia Pacific Journal of Economics and Business. 1997,1:69～84.
199. Squires, D. Long-run Profit Functions for Multiproduct Firms. American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1987,69(3):558～69.
200. Sullivan, J., U. Vasavada, and M. Smith. Environmental Regulation and Location of Hog Production. Agriculture Outlook, 2000, 12:19 American Journal of Agricultural Economics 23.
201. Talpaz, H. Multi-Frequency Cobweb Model: Decomposition of the Hog Cycle. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1974,56(1): 38-49.
202. Wen, G.J. Total Factor Productivity Change in China’s Farming Sector: 1952-1989. Economic Development and Cultural Change,1993, 42: 1～41.
2. Robin D’Arcy,Gary Storey.中国生猪周期理论与模式评估[R].中国一加拿大农业发展项目,2000:1～64.
3. Wilfried Wesselink,王红戈译.世界养猪生产的巨大差异与机遇.中国牧业通讯,2004,19:68～71.
4.蔡贤恩.我国现行粮食价格政策面临的问题与对策研究[J].技术经济,2000,9:79～83.
5.曹暕.建国以来我国生猪供给周期波动分析.中国青年农业经济学者年会论文集.北京,2002.
6.陈蓉.规模化生产对我国生猪生产波动的影响分析.乡镇经济,2009,25(10):100～104.
7.陈蓉.我国生猪生产波动周期分析.农业技术经济,2009,3:77～86.
8.陈诗波,王亚静,李崇光.中国生猪生产效率及影响因素分析.农业现代化研究,2008,1:40～44.
9.陈顺友,熊远著,邓昌彦.规模化养猪生产波动的成因及其抗风险能力初探.农业技术经济,2000,6:6～9.
10.陈顺友,张金龙.生猪生产波动的成因及对策.农业经济问题,1995,9:25～27.
11.邓力群.当代中国的畜牧业,当代中国丛书.北京:当代中国出版社,1991.
12.邓蓉,张存根.中国畜牧业发展研究.北京:中国农业出版社,2005.
13.董恒年.中国生猪产业发展的趋势、矛盾、战略与政策研究.北京电子科技学院学报,2005,3:23～28.
14.冯海发、王广森、吴永祥.农业总生产率研究.北京:天则出版社,1989.
15.冯永辉.我国生猪养殖区域布局变化趋势.畜牧市场,2006,3:32～35.
16.傅晓霞,吴利学.随机前沿生产前沿方法的发展及其在中国的应用.南开经济研究,2006,2:132-143.
17.高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模.北京,清华大学出版社,2006.
18.谷彬.改革开放以来中国服务业区域效率测算与分解-基于随机前沿模型的实证研究.珠江经济,2008,10:65～85.
19.关锐捷.中国农村改革开放二十年.石家庄:河北科学技术出版社,1998.
20.郭京堂,王慧文,郭沛.论当前猪肉涨价的原因与对策.中国农村经济,1995,2:61～63.
21.郭荣俊,张如意等。陕西省生猪生产周期波动规模研究.西北农业大学学报,1991,9:80～84.
22.国家发展和改革委员会价格司.全国农产品成本收益资料汇编.北京:中国统计局,1980-2009.
23.国家统计局.中国统计年鉴.北京:中国统计局出版社,1980～2009.
24.韩俊,秦中春.我国新一轮生猪周期波动分析.今日畜牧兽医,2007,9:3～6.
25.韩俊,秦中春.我国新一轮生猪周期波动分析.今日畜牧兽医,2007,9:3～6.
26.何枫.SFA模型及其在我国技术效率测算中的应用.系统工程理论与实践. 2004,5:47～51.
27.何广燕.生猪养殖链的利益联结问题弹性.经济师,2008,3:230～231.
28.何晓群.试论我国生猪生产波动的成因及弱化波动的对策.农业经济问题,1990,10:54～57.
29.何新安,熊启泉.1993-2005年广东农业生产率的变动与分解——基于Malmquist生产率指数的实证分析.南方经济,2009,2:69～80.
30.何信龙.中国养猪业发展趋势.今日畜牧兽医,2007,10:5～6.
31.胡浩,应瑞瑶,刘佳.中国生猪产地移动的经济分析.中国农村经济,2005,12:46～52.
32.胡凯.我国生猪供应链的现状问题与发展趋势.安徽农业科学,2007,35(12):3667～3668.
33.湖南大学课题组.湖南生猪生产波动实证研究.财经理论与实践,2003,1:120～122.
34.黄峰岩.有关生猪产销波动的分析与思考.江西农业经济.2000,4:54～55.
35.黄世洪.生猪产销波动及基本成因分析.中国农村经济,1995,11:39～41.
36.黄英伟,汪娟.中国生猪生产与粮食生产关系的变迁.新疆农业科学,2007,44(S2):212～216.
37.贾幼陵.畜牧业发展的制约因素及其宏观调控问题.中国农村经济,,1999.1:41～46.
38.贾幼陵.畜牧业发展的制约因素及其宏观调控问题.中国农村经济,1999, l:21一24
39.江西省价格理论研究所课题组等.生猪价格周期波动及其对策研究.价格月刊,2009,12:22～32.
40.蒋乃华.中国畜产品供给需求与贸易行为研究.【博士后学位论文】.北京:中国农业大学,2002.
41.康大夫.建立现代生猪产业体系—关于当前生猪额发展的建议.山西农业,2006,20:40～41.
42.康大夫.建立现代生猪产业体系—关于当前生猪业发展的建议.山西农业,2006,20:7～9.
43.科埃利著,王忠玉译.效率与生产率分析引论.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002.
44.匡远配.湖南省生猪产业波动的特征、原因及其对策.农业现代化研究,2009,3:149～153.
45.李秉龙,何秋红.中国猪肉价格短期波动及其原因分析.农业经济问题,2007,10:18～21.
46.李谷成,冯中朝.农户家庭经营～1技术效率与全要素生产率增长分解(1999-2003).数量经济技术经济研究,2007,24(8):25～34.
47.李桦.生猪饲养规模及其成本效益分析【.博士学位论文】.杨陵:西北农林科技大学,2008.
48.李建平,张存根.加入WTO对我国养猪业的影响及对策.农业经济问题,2000,4:13～16.
49.李京文,鈡学义.中国生产率分析前沿.北京:社会科学文献出版社,2006.
50.李静,吕永成.广西农业增长的要素分析及对策研究.广西财经学院学报,2006,6(19):25～28.
51.李强,张林秀.利润函数方法在农产品生产估计中的运用.统计与决策,2007,16:26～29.
52.李清宏,韩俊文.改革开放以来中国养猪生产回顾分析与展望.“腾骏杯”中国改革开放养猪30年大型征文比赛优秀论文集,2006,223～229.
53.李双杰,左宝祥.全要素生产率测度方法评析.经济师,2008,5:15～16.
54.李子奈.计量经济学——研究方法和应用.北京:清华大学出版社,1992.
55.梁振华,张存根.我国生猪区域产销的变动趋势与发展的思考.中国农村观察,1998,1:62～65.
56.林祥金.面对加入WTO对我国畜牧业比较优势的分析.当代畜牧,2001,4:1～3.
57.林祥金.中国农区畜牧业经济问题.北京:中国农业科技出版社,1994.
58.林智元.论我国的生猪生产波动.农业经济问题,1990,5:16～19.
59.刘海良.我国养猪业概况及国外养猪业发展趋势.中国牧业网[R],www.china-ah.com,2002-12-17.
60.刘小二,谢月华.基于SFA我国区域全要素生产率差异的实证研究.统计教育,2009,7:32～37.
61.罗伯特·M·索洛.经济增长因素分析[M].北京:商务印书馆,1991.
62.马恒运,唐仓华,Allan Rae.中国牛奶生产的伞要素生产率分析[J].中国农村经济,2007(2):40-48.
63.马文杰,冯中朝.基于Nerlove模型的中国小麦供给反映研究.技术经济,2009,3:50～52.
64.孟令杰,张红梅.中国小麦生产的技术效率地区差异.南京农业大学学报,2005,4(2):13～16.
65.孟令杰,中国农业产出技术效率动态研究.农业经济经济,2000,5:1～4.
66.农业部.中国畜牧业年鉴.北京:中国农业出版社,1999～2009.
67.农业部.中国畜牧业统计(1949～1989).北京:中国经济出版社,1990.
68.农业部生猪波动规律性研究课题组.掌握发展规律、稳定生猪生产——关于我国生猪生产和价格波动情况的分析.中国信息网,www.agri.gov.cn,2007-12-04.
69.农业部畜牧司.生猪生产文件资料汇编(内部资料).2007.
70.綦颖,吕杰,宋连喜.生猪价格波动的经济学分析.中国畜牧杂志,2007,2(43):31～35.
71.綦颖,宋连喜.生猪市场周期性波动的原因分析与缓解对策.中国畜牧杂,2006,42(36):15～18.
72.綦颖.中国市场价格波动研究.【博士学位论文】.沈阳:沈阳农业大学,2009.
73.钱灿.生产率研究的前沿方法.统计与决策,2006,13:11～12.
74.乔纳森.生产率与美国经济增长.北京:经济科学出版社,1989.
75.沈镇昭.新时期畜牧业经济问题研究.北京:中国农业出版社,2005.
76.石有龙.生猪生产及其价格变化规律.猪业科学,2008,4:60～61.
77.司伟,王秀清.中国糖料的供给反应[J].中国农村观察,2OO6(4):2～11.
78.宋周,何燕.当期生猪产业发展的主要问题与对策思路.农村经济,2004,3:41～44.
79.孙德林.社会化生猪流通体制的曙光.猪业科学,2006,23(8):36～38.
80.孙政才.农业农村改革发展30年.北京:中国农业出版社,2008.
81.孙志强.我国生猪市场“蛛网现象”的本质、根源和破解措施.【硕士学位论文】.北京:对外经贸大学,2007.
82.田露,张越杰.吉林省农户养猪生产效率分析.吉林农业大学学报,2008,30(5):764～768.
83.田茂源.农村养猪存在的问题和对策.畜禽业,2005,12:42～43.
84.万明春.猪肉加工现状与发展趋势.四川畜牧兽医,2008,5:8～10.
85.王兵,颜鹏飞.技术效率、技术进步与中国生产率增长.CCER学刊,2004,3:127～151.
86.王德文,黄季煜.双轨制度下中国农户粮食供给反应分析[J].经济研究,2000,11:55～65.
87.王芳,陈俊安.我国生猪市场波动规模及平稳供给对策.中国畜牧杂志.2009,45(10):8～10.
88.王明利,王济民.本论生猪市场波动暴露的问题及启示.中国畜牧杂志,2007,22:4～7.
89.王明利,王济民.畜牧业增长方式转变:现状评价与实现对策.农业经济问题,2007,8:49～54.
90.王千六,李强.我国生猪产业市场机制的缺陷及其对策.农业现代化研究.2009,5:292～297.
91.王伟,张志强.中国与世界生猪生产和贸易状况分析.现代化农业,2004,3:26～29
92.王秀清,李德发.生猪生产的国际环境与竞争力研究.中国农村经济,1998,8::5～6.
93.王艳阳,林祥金.论生猪生产周期波动的原因及环境的对策.中国农业经济,1999,11:47～51.
94.王益松.中国农业波动周期与预警分析.农业经济问题,2004,1:38:42.
95.王征兵.四川省散养户饲养生猪的生产效率评价.安徽农业科学,2008,36(26):111354～11356.
96.吴方卫,孟令杰.中国农业的增长与效率.上海:上海财经大学出版社,2004.
97.吴双.全要素生产率测算的参数方法与非参数方法之比较.时代经贸,2008,2:63～64.
98.武深树,谭美英.生猪产业安全的长效发展制度创新.猪业科学,2007,11:38～42.
99.晓白.我国屠宰行业存在的问题及成因分析.中外食品,2006,5:14～18.
100.辛贤,谭向勇.中国生猪和猪肉价格波动因素测定.中国农村经济1999,5:28～34.
101.辛贤.生猪和猪肉价格形成研究.【博士学位论文】.北京:中国农业大学,1998.
102.熊俊.从要素投入和全要素生产率看经济增长理论.江西社会科学,2002,9:49～51.
103.阳国亮,何元庆.全要素生产率增长的度量方法.学术论坛,2005,6:87～90.
104.杨朝英,徐学荣.中国生猪生产支持政策对价格调控的有效性分析.农业现代化研究,2008,9:564～567.
105.杨顺元.全要素生产率理论及实证研究.【硕士论文】.天津:天津大学,2006.
106.杨湘华.中国生猪业生产的效率及其影响因素分析.【硕士学位论文】.南京:南京农业大学,2008.
107.姚金观等.中国农产品—流通体制与价格制度.北京:中国物价出版社,1995.
108.姚民朴.中国养猪业现状与发展研究.2009年全球猪业大会论坛集,2009.
109.姚琼,朱能五.影响农户养猪产出增长的因素分析.中国农村观察,2006,6:49～51.
110.易敢峰.中美养猪业之比较和中国未来规模化养猪之挑战.猪业科学,2007,3:16～20.
111.殷传麟,周冰冰.生猪价格:波动于抗波动.价格理论与实践,1997,(4):19～22.
112.虞晓红.经济增长理论演进与经济增长模型浅析.生产力研究,2005,2:12～14.
113.张空等.中国养猪业的波动及其对策.农业技术经济,1996 ,6: 24～26.
114.张存根.转型中的中国畜牧业:趋势与政策调整.北京:中国农业出版社,2006.
115.张汇弟.制约生猪业发展的瓶颈.畜牧市场,11～13
116.张月瑶.发展生猪生产与保障猪肉供应中政府的作为.江苏商论,2008,4:40～41.
117.章祥荪,贵斌威.中国全要素生产率分析:Malmquist指数法评述与应用.数量经济技术经济研究,2008,6:11122.
118.赵奉军.基于谱分析的中国生猪周期波动研究.统计与信息论坛,2009,12:27～32.
119.赵亮,陶红军.湖北省畜牧业生产技术效率的测算及影响因素分析.畜禽业,2006,11:8:
13.
120.郑华,张福权.我国养殖业市场波动与分析.动物科学与动物医学.2005,11:28～30.
121.郑京海,胡鞍钢.中国改革时期省际生产率增长变化的实证分析( 1970- 2001年) .经济学, 2005,2:263～296.
122.郑曙东,孙瑜,余爱民.生猪市场大起大落中的政府责任,南风窗,2007,8:65～67.
123.周礼.中国养猪业报告.中美合作项目研究报告,1998.
124.周礼.转变畜牧业增长方式的思路.中国农村经济,1997,4:57～62.
125.周胜利.我国生猪产业发展问题研究.【硕士论文】.武汉:华中农业大学,2005.
126.周晓艳,韩朝华.中国地区间生产效率与全要素生产率增长率分解(1996-2006).中国各地区经济增长差异的制度分析项目研究成果之一, 2006.
127.周异.基于繁殖规律的生猪市场供应模型.华南农业大学学报,2009,1:47～51.
128.周咏.散养户和专业户饲养生猪的生产效率比较.农业技术经济,1999,3:36～39.
129.朱希刚.我国“九五”时期农业科技进步贡献率的测算.农业经济问题,2002,5:12～13.
130.朱希刚.我国农业科技进步贡献率测算方法[M] .北京:中国农业出版社,1997.
131.朱希刚.经济分析和农业技术方法及应用.中国农业出版社,1997.
132.朱希刚.农业技术进步及其“七五”期间贡献份额的测算分析.农业技术经济,1993,9:30～34.
133. Afriat, S. Efficiency estimation of production functions. International Economic Review 1972,13:568～598.
134. Aigner, J., Lovell, K. and Schmidt, P. 1977.Formulation and Estimation of Stochastic Frontier Production Function Models. Journal of Econometric, 1977, 6:21～37.
135. Arnold B.Larson.The Hog Cycle as Hanllonie Motion.Journal of Farm Eeonomies,1964, 46(2):375～386.
136. Atkinson, S. E. and R. Halvorsen.“Parametric Tests for Static and Dynamic Equilibrium.”Journal of Econometrics.1988, 85:33～55.
137. Balk, B. M. (1998). Industrial Price, Quantity, and Productivity Indices: The Micro-Economic Theory and anApplication. Boston/Dordrech/London: Kluwer Academic Publishers,1998.
138. Balk, B. M. Scale Efficiency and Productivity Change. Journal of Productivity Analysis , 2001,15:159～183.
139. Ball, V.E. Modeling Supply Response in a Multiproduct Framework. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1988,70(4): 813～825.
140. Ball, V.E. Output, Input, and Productivity Measurement in U.S. Agriculture, 1948-79. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1985,67(3): 475～486.
141. Banker, R. D. and R. M. Thrall. Estimation of returns to scale using data envelopment analysis. European Journal of Operational Research,1992, 62:74～84.
142. Banker, R. D. Estimating the Most Productive Scale Size using Data Envelopment Analysis. European Journal of Operational Research ,1984, 17:3544.
143. Battese, E. and Coelli, T. A Model of Technical Inefficiency Effects in Stochastic Frontier Production for Panel Data. Empirical Economics, 1995, 20: 325-332.
144. Battese, E. and Coelli, T. Frontier Production Functions, Technical Efficiency and Panel Data:With Application to Paddy Farmers in India. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 1992, 3:153～169.
145. Battese, G. and T. J. Coelli. (1992). Frontier Production Functions, Technical Efficiency and Panel Data: With Application to Paddy Farmers in India. Journal of Productivity Analysis,1992 ,3:153～169.
146. Battese, G. E., &T. J. Coelli. A Model for Technical Inefficiency Effects in a Stochastic Frontier Production Function for Panel Data.Empirical Economics.1995,20(2), 325～332
147. Battese, G.E., and T.J. Coelli. Frontier Production Functions, TechnicalEfficiency and Panel Data: With Application to Paddy Farmers in India.Journal of Productivity Analysis, 1992, 3: 153-169.
148. Binswanger, H. The Measurement of Technical Change Biases with Many factors of Production. The American Economic Review.1974, 64:964～976.
149. Breimyer, H. F. Emerging Phenomenon: A Cycle in Hogs. J. Farm Econ. 1959,41: 760-768.
150. Brümmer, B., T. Glauben and G. Thijssen. Decomposition of Productivity Growth Using Distance Function: The Case of Dairy farms in Three European Countries. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2002,84:628-644.
151. C. Clare Hinrichs and Rick Welsh. The Effects of The Industrialization of US Livestock Agriculture on Promoting Sustainable Production Practices. Agriculture and Human Values, 2003, 20: 125～141.
152. C. Scott Johnson and Kenneth A. Foster. Risk Preferences and Contracting in the U.S. Hog Industry. J Agr and Applied Econ, 1994, 26(2) :393～405.
153. Chavas, J-P., Holt, M. On non-linear dynamics: the case of the pork cycle. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1991,73:819～828.
154. Chow, G. C. Analysis and Control of Dynamic Economic Systems. New York: Wiley,1975.
155. Christian Bosssen, John D .Glenn Grimes.Production and Mariketing Characteristics of U.S. Pork Producers.Agricultural Economics Working Paper,2004,4.
156. Coelli, T.J., D. S.Rao, C.J. O’Donnell, and G.E. Battese. An Introduction to Efficiency and Productivity Analysis. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers,1998.
157. Coelli,T.J..A Guide to FRONTIER 4.1:A Computer Program for Stochastic Frontier Production and Cost Function Estimation.CEPAWorking Papers,1996
158. Curtis S.E. Environmental management in animal agriculture. Iowa State University Press,1983.
159. Denny, M., M. Fuss and L.Waverman. The Measurement and Interpretation of Total Factor Productivity in Regulated Industries with an Application to Canadian Telecommunications. Productivity Measurement in Regulated Industries. New York: Academic Press, 1981.
160. Dermot J.Hays, Andew Schmitz. Hog Cycles and Countereyelical Production Response.Ameriean Joumal of Agricultural Eeonomies,1987,69(4): 762～770.
161. Dillon, John L. The Analysis of Response in Crop and Livestock Production. Oxford, U.K: Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1977.
162. Fan, S. Production and Productivity Growth in Chinese Agriculture: New Measurement and Evidence. Food Policy, 1997,22(3): 213～228.
163. Farrell, J. The Measurement of Productive Efficiency. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 1957, A:253-282.
164. Farrell, M. J. (1957). The Measurement of Productive Efficiency. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 1957,120:253～281.
165. F?rsund, F. R. The Malmquist Productivity Index, TFP and Scale. Taipei International Conference on Efficiency and Productivity Growth, 1997, 6:20～21.
166. Fuller, F., F. Tuan and E. Wailes. Rising Demand for Meat: Who Will Feed China’s Hogs. China’s Food and Agriculture: Issues for the 21st Century / AIB 775. Economic Research Service/USDA. 2002.
167. Futrell, G., Grimes, G., and Mueller. Understanding Hog Production and Price Cycles.
168. Grifell, E. and C. A. Knox Lovell. The Sources of Productivity Change in Spanish Banking. European Journal of Operational Research, 1997, 98, 364～380.
169. Griffiths, G.R. A note on the pig cycle in Australia. Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1977,21:130-139.
170. Halverson M.K. Using nature as both mentor and model: animal welfare research and development in sustainable swine production. Dept. of Agricultural Ecortomics, University of Minnesota, Staff paper 1991, 91～126.
171. Hengyun Ma, Allan N Rae and Jikun Huang . Livestock Productivity in China: Data Revision and Total Factor Productivity Decomposition. Working Paper, Centre for Applied Economics and Policy Studies Massey University, 2001,4:1～31.
172. Honeyman M.S. Sustainable swine production.Minnesota Extension Service,1990
173. Hurt, C. Industrialization in the Pork Industry. Choices ,1994, 4: 9～13.
174. J.Scott Shonkwiler and Thomas H.Spreen.Statistical Significance and Stability of The Hog Cycle.Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics,1986,12:227～233.
175. Jelavich, M. S. Distributed Lag Estimation of Harmonic Motion in the Hog Market. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1973,55(2): 223～224.
176. Key, N., and W. McBride. Do Contracts Raise Hog Farm Productivity? An Instrumental Variables Approach. Portland:American Agricultural Economics Association, 2007.
177. Kliebenstein, J., and J.D. Lawrence. Contracting and Vertical Coordination in the U.S. Pork Industry. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1995,77:12～23.
178. Kumbhakar, S. C. and C. A. K. Lovell. Stochastic Frontier Analysis. Cambridge University Press, 2000.
179. Kumbhakar, S. Estimation and Decomposition of Productivity Change When Production Is Not Efficient:A Panel Data Approach. Econometric Reviews,2000, 19(4):425～460.
180. LarryD.Stearns, Timothy A. Petry.Hog Marktcycles. http://www.ag.ndsu.edu.1996,1,EC-1101.
181. Larson, A.B.The hog cycle as harmonic motion. Journal of Farm Economics, 1964,46 :375-86.
182. Liu,QFW. Price relations among hog,corn.and soybean meal futures.Journalof Futures Markets, 2005, 25(5):419～514.
183. ltshak Borosh,Hovav TalPaz.Multi一Frequeney Cobweb Model:Decomposition of the Hog Cycle Comment. Ameriean JoumalofAgrieultUralEeonomies,1975, 57(1) :132～133
184. Ludena, C. Impact of productivity growth in crops and livestock on world food trade patterns. Presented to 7th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis. Washington D.C., USA:2004,6:17～19.
185. LUIS OREA. Parametric Decomposition of a Generalized Malmquist Productivity Index.Journal of Productivity Analysis ,2002,18:5～22.
186. Ma, Hengyun and Rae Allan. Hog Production in China: Technological Bias and Factor Demand. Working Paper. Massey University, 2004,7:1～23.
187. MacDonald, J.M., and M. Ollinger. Scale Economies and Consolidation in Hog Slaughter. American Journal of Agricultural Economics ,2000, 82::334～346.
188. McBride, W. and N. Key. Economic and Structural Relationships in U.S. Hog Production. Washington DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, ERS, Agricultural Economic Report, 2002,12.
189. Metcalf, M.R. Environmental Regulation and Implicationsfor the U.S. Hog and Pork Industries. Ph.D. Dissertation, North Carolina State University, 2000.
190. Nigel Key and William McBride.Production Conrtacts and Producitivity in the U.S. Hong Sector. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2003, 2:121～133.
191. Nigel Key and William McBride.The Changing Economics of U.S. Hog Production.Economic Research Report ,2007,52:1～45.
192. Pork Industry Handbook. Iowa State University,1989.
193. Rae A. N., and T. Hertel. Future Development in Global Livestock and Grains Markets: The Impact of Livestock Productivity Convergence in Asian-Pacific. The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2000,44:393～422.
194. Ray, S. C. Measuring Scale Efficiency from a Translog Production Function. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 1998, 11:183～194.
195. Rhodes, V.J. The Industrialization of Hog Production. Review of Agricultural Economics,1995,17:107～18.
196. Sealey, C. W. and J. T. Lindley. Inputs, Outputs, and a Theory of Production and Cost at Depository Financial Institutions. Journal of Finance,1977,32(4):1251～1266.
197. Shonkwiler, J. S. and T. H. Spreen. A Dynamic Regression Model of the U.S. Hog Market. Canada Journal of Agricultural Economics,1982, 30: 37～48.
198. Simpson, J. R. China’s Ability to Feed its Livestock in the Next Century. Asia Pacific Journal of Economics and Business. 1997,1:69～84.
199. Squires, D. Long-run Profit Functions for Multiproduct Firms. American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1987,69(3):558～69.
200. Sullivan, J., U. Vasavada, and M. Smith. Environmental Regulation and Location of Hog Production. Agriculture Outlook, 2000, 12:19 American Journal of Agricultural Economics 23.
201. Talpaz, H. Multi-Frequency Cobweb Model: Decomposition of the Hog Cycle. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1974,56(1): 38-49.
202. Wen, G.J. Total Factor Productivity Change in China’s Farming Sector: 1952-1989. Economic Development and Cultural Change,1993, 42: 1～41.