二氧化碳捕获与封存技术应用项目风险评价研究
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摘要
二氧化碳捕获与封存(简称CCS)是一项新兴的CO2减排方式,它的规模化应用能在确保化石能源正常使用的同时急剧降低大气中CO2含量,因此CCS技术被认为在缓解全球气候变化的技术组合中将占据举足轻重的地位。考虑到严峻的CO2减排任务以及以煤炭为主的能源结构,我国有必要积极发展CCS技术。然而,现阶段CCS技术的发展在全球都处于初期示范阶段,规模化CCS技术应用项目的发展可能面临许多风险。本研究以CCS技术应用项目为研究对象,旨在对我国发展CCS技术应用项目的风险进行识别和评价,并提出相应的风险应对策略。围绕上述问题主要开展了以下几方面工作。
首先,探究了CCS技术应用项目风险评价的理论分析框架。基于传统风险理论、项目管理理论以及CCS技术应用项目的特征,界定了CCS技术应用项目风险的概念,剖析了风险的形成与特征,构建了基于技术-社会系统视角的CCS技术应用项目风险评价框架,以此作为本论文的研究基础。
第二,引入行动者网络理论工具,结合文献分析对CCS技术应用项目进行了风险识别,识别出来自技术、健康安全环境、社会接受、市场、能源资源、政策法规等6个领域22项风险因素。在此基础上,通过构建工作-风险矩阵确定了风险因素作用于项目的工作环节,并进一步对识别出的各项风险因素进行了深入分析。
第三,应用网络分析法与模糊综合评价法对CCS技术应用项目实施风险评价。通过风险评价得到风险因素的权重值,其中,投资风险、国内政策风险以及社会接受风险的权重位列前三,而地下资源破坏风险与技术人员水平风险的权重排在最后。风险评价的结果还显示CCS技术应用项目的风险综合隶属度为3.7702,说明项目风险属于中等偏高水平,应该重视项目发展过程的风险问题,积极采取应对措施。
第四,以神华CCS示范项目为例进行风险评价案例研究。在详细分析神华CCS示范项目风险因素特征的基础上进行风险模糊综合评价,结果显示,神华CCS示范项目的综合风险水平远远低于一般CCS技术应用项目,反映了该案例项目在规模、选址以及技术选择方面的特征。
第五,在风险识别和风险评价的基础上提出了持续改进的CCS项目风险应对模式,并从宏观层面就各项风险因素提出风险应对措施。
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one of the most promising CO2emission reduction options, the scaled application of which is able to radically reduce the content of CO2in the atmosphere while keep the normal use of fossil fuels. Based on this, CCS is regarded to play an important role in technology portfolio for climate change mitigation. Given that China is facing severe challenge on CO2reduction and will rely on coal as its main energy in the future, it is necessary for China to develop CCS technology. However, the development of CCS worldwide is on the early stage so that it may suffer serious risks for China to develop scaled CCS project. This research is about the development of scaled CCS project in China with the aim of identifying and evaluating risks as well as making corresponding risk treatment measures. Main research contents of this dissertation are summarized as follows.
Firstly, an analysis framework for CCS project risk assessment is constructed. Based on traditional risk theory and project management principles, the definition of CCS project risk is defined, characteristics and formation of CCS project risk are explored, and a social-technical system based CCS project risk assessment framework is constructed.
Secondly, risk factors of CCS project are identified with the application of literature review and actor network theory analysis method. The results show that CCS project development in China may encounter risks from aspects of technology, HSE (health, safety and environment), market, energy and resources, as well as policy and regulations. After that, the corresponding work units which risk factors may work on are identified by constructing work-risk metric. Risk factors are further analyzed with regard to their characteristics.
Thirdly, risk assessment is processed by applying methods of analytic network process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The results show that among all the22risk assessment indices, weights of investment risk, national policy risk and public acceptance risk list top three, while weights of underground resources destruction risk and technician skill risk come in last. Besides, the comprehensive value of CCS project risk is3.7702which mean a medium to high risk level. Given these results, risks of CCS project development should be taken seriously and efficient precaution should be made.
Fourthly, case study of risk assessment is conducted on China's first demonstration CCS project. Risks of this case project are analysed particularly and risk fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is conducted. Results show that comprehensive risk level of case project is much lower than that of regular CCS project which reflects the case project's characteristics in project scale, site selection and technologies applied.
Finally, in order to cope with CCS project risks, a continuously improving risk treatment mode as well as risk preventing and reducing measures are proposed.
首先,探究了CCS技术应用项目风险评价的理论分析框架。基于传统风险理论、项目管理理论以及CCS技术应用项目的特征,界定了CCS技术应用项目风险的概念,剖析了风险的形成与特征,构建了基于技术-社会系统视角的CCS技术应用项目风险评价框架,以此作为本论文的研究基础。
第二,引入行动者网络理论工具,结合文献分析对CCS技术应用项目进行了风险识别,识别出来自技术、健康安全环境、社会接受、市场、能源资源、政策法规等6个领域22项风险因素。在此基础上,通过构建工作-风险矩阵确定了风险因素作用于项目的工作环节,并进一步对识别出的各项风险因素进行了深入分析。
第三,应用网络分析法与模糊综合评价法对CCS技术应用项目实施风险评价。通过风险评价得到风险因素的权重值,其中,投资风险、国内政策风险以及社会接受风险的权重位列前三,而地下资源破坏风险与技术人员水平风险的权重排在最后。风险评价的结果还显示CCS技术应用项目的风险综合隶属度为3.7702,说明项目风险属于中等偏高水平,应该重视项目发展过程的风险问题,积极采取应对措施。
第四,以神华CCS示范项目为例进行风险评价案例研究。在详细分析神华CCS示范项目风险因素特征的基础上进行风险模糊综合评价,结果显示,神华CCS示范项目的综合风险水平远远低于一般CCS技术应用项目,反映了该案例项目在规模、选址以及技术选择方面的特征。
第五,在风险识别和风险评价的基础上提出了持续改进的CCS项目风险应对模式,并从宏观层面就各项风险因素提出风险应对措施。
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one of the most promising CO2emission reduction options, the scaled application of which is able to radically reduce the content of CO2in the atmosphere while keep the normal use of fossil fuels. Based on this, CCS is regarded to play an important role in technology portfolio for climate change mitigation. Given that China is facing severe challenge on CO2reduction and will rely on coal as its main energy in the future, it is necessary for China to develop CCS technology. However, the development of CCS worldwide is on the early stage so that it may suffer serious risks for China to develop scaled CCS project. This research is about the development of scaled CCS project in China with the aim of identifying and evaluating risks as well as making corresponding risk treatment measures. Main research contents of this dissertation are summarized as follows.
Firstly, an analysis framework for CCS project risk assessment is constructed. Based on traditional risk theory and project management principles, the definition of CCS project risk is defined, characteristics and formation of CCS project risk are explored, and a social-technical system based CCS project risk assessment framework is constructed.
Secondly, risk factors of CCS project are identified with the application of literature review and actor network theory analysis method. The results show that CCS project development in China may encounter risks from aspects of technology, HSE (health, safety and environment), market, energy and resources, as well as policy and regulations. After that, the corresponding work units which risk factors may work on are identified by constructing work-risk metric. Risk factors are further analyzed with regard to their characteristics.
Thirdly, risk assessment is processed by applying methods of analytic network process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The results show that among all the22risk assessment indices, weights of investment risk, national policy risk and public acceptance risk list top three, while weights of underground resources destruction risk and technician skill risk come in last. Besides, the comprehensive value of CCS project risk is3.7702which mean a medium to high risk level. Given these results, risks of CCS project development should be taken seriously and efficient precaution should be made.
Fourthly, case study of risk assessment is conducted on China's first demonstration CCS project. Risks of this case project are analysed particularly and risk fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is conducted. Results show that comprehensive risk level of case project is much lower than that of regular CCS project which reflects the case project's characteristics in project scale, site selection and technologies applied.
Finally, in order to cope with CCS project risks, a continuously improving risk treatment mode as well as risk preventing and reducing measures are proposed.
引文
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