我国金融期货市场发展问题研究
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摘要
20世纪70年代以后国际经济环境动荡，各国纷纷实行浮动汇率制及新的货币政策，国际范围内利率、汇率波动风险大增，具有保值避险功能的新型金融工具—金融期货应运而生，并且在全世界范围内发展十分迅速。当前金融期货在国际金融市场中的地位越来越重要，被称为是广义资本市场的核心。随着我国经济市场化程度的提高，金融体制改革与国企改革的日益深化，特别是正式加入WTO，国内企业尤其是金融业不仅面临国内市场的竞争，还要面对国际市场的剧烈竞争，以回避利率、汇率、股价波动风险为目的的各种金融期货合约越来越成为现实的需求。金融期货市场有其社会功能，能增加金融市场流动性，有力于经济金融信息的传递，有助资本的形成。同时具有套期保值、价格发现的经济功能。我国建立金融期货市场是中国经济与国际接轨的需要。并且成为一种客观趋势。
建立我国金融期货市场的可行性：一、现货市场已成规模；二、期货市场几年来的试点运行提供了宝贵经验；三、大量闲置资金的存在也为推出金融期货奠定了一定的基础；四、可利用后发性利益，借鉴国际上成功的经验；五、金融期货的相对独立性为它的试点提供了可能。并且作为金融期货市场基石的基础性金融市场——国债市场、股市、外汇市场也逐步成熟，这是发展金融期货交易的必备条件。
建立和发展我国金融期货市场目前仍然存在着一些不利因素：金融体制改革滞后，利率市场化程度不高；市场宏观管理不健全，监管方式落后；市场信用风险较大等。另外，亚洲金融风暴的影响也使我国放慢了推出金融期货品种的步伐。
所以，克服不利因素，选择科学的发展战略是建立我国金融期货市场的落脚点。发展我国金融期货市场的具体步骤分为研究阶段、试验阶段、推出阶段，市场框架主要包括：一、品种合约的设计；二、监管体系的建立；三、交易系统和结算系统的建立；四、参与者队伍和从业人员的培养。
From the seventies 20th century, the international economic environment became turbulent. As the floating exchange rate system and the new currency policy come on, many factors such as the broken of the balance of payments, the serious inflation and etc, resulted in the exquisite fluctuation of the interest and the exchange rate in the world. The increased financial exchanges bring higher risks. So the new-style financial instrument -financial futures which is provided with the function of hedging emerges as the times required, and is developing rapidly now. Along with the market economy system come into being , and the deepening reform of the financial system and the reform of the state-owned corporations in China, especially entering the WTO, the national corporations especially the financial enterprises are facing not only the serious competetion in the home market, but also the international market. All kinds of the financial future agreements which intend to hedge the fluctuant risk of the interest rate
, exchange rate and the share price, fit the bill more and more .
The foundation of the financial futures market which is propitious to the transfer of the economical and financial information helps to the form of the capital assets, and increases the fluidity of the financial market. And the futures market also have three economical functions, such as price discovery, hedging and risk shifting. So China should accelerate futures market development to meet the developing demand of China's international finance. It is a external trend for us to set up the Financial future market.
The feasibility to set up the financial futures market is as follows: first, the spot transaction markets have been mature; second, the running in of the futures market have provided tots of invaluable experience in recent years; third, a bound of fund leave-unused have established the base for the appearance of the futures market; fourth, we can also use the successful experience in the world for reference; fifth, the relative independence of the financial futures has provided the possibility for it's running in.Besides, several basal financial markets as the footstone of the financial market such as the national debt market, stock market and foreign exchange market, have become mature gradually. It is the inevitable condition for the development of the financial
future business.
To select the scientific developing-stratagem is a critical- piont of the establishment of the financial futures market in China, the step of which could be classified as investigating stage, testing stage and practicing stage. The frame of the financial futures market is as follows: 1, the design of the agreements; 2, the foundation of the supervise system; 3, the foundation of the dealing and settling system; 4, the diathesis of the attendees and the training of the clerks.
建立我国金融期货市场的可行性：一、现货市场已成规模；二、期货市场几年来的试点运行提供了宝贵经验；三、大量闲置资金的存在也为推出金融期货奠定了一定的基础；四、可利用后发性利益，借鉴国际上成功的经验；五、金融期货的相对独立性为它的试点提供了可能。并且作为金融期货市场基石的基础性金融市场——国债市场、股市、外汇市场也逐步成熟，这是发展金融期货交易的必备条件。
建立和发展我国金融期货市场目前仍然存在着一些不利因素：金融体制改革滞后，利率市场化程度不高；市场宏观管理不健全，监管方式落后；市场信用风险较大等。另外，亚洲金融风暴的影响也使我国放慢了推出金融期货品种的步伐。
所以，克服不利因素，选择科学的发展战略是建立我国金融期货市场的落脚点。发展我国金融期货市场的具体步骤分为研究阶段、试验阶段、推出阶段，市场框架主要包括：一、品种合约的设计；二、监管体系的建立；三、交易系统和结算系统的建立；四、参与者队伍和从业人员的培养。
From the seventies 20th century, the international economic environment became turbulent. As the floating exchange rate system and the new currency policy come on, many factors such as the broken of the balance of payments, the serious inflation and etc, resulted in the exquisite fluctuation of the interest and the exchange rate in the world. The increased financial exchanges bring higher risks. So the new-style financial instrument -financial futures which is provided with the function of hedging emerges as the times required, and is developing rapidly now. Along with the market economy system come into being , and the deepening reform of the financial system and the reform of the state-owned corporations in China, especially entering the WTO, the national corporations especially the financial enterprises are facing not only the serious competetion in the home market, but also the international market. All kinds of the financial future agreements which intend to hedge the fluctuant risk of the interest rate
, exchange rate and the share price, fit the bill more and more .
The foundation of the financial futures market which is propitious to the transfer of the economical and financial information helps to the form of the capital assets, and increases the fluidity of the financial market. And the futures market also have three economical functions, such as price discovery, hedging and risk shifting. So China should accelerate futures market development to meet the developing demand of China's international finance. It is a external trend for us to set up the Financial future market.
The feasibility to set up the financial futures market is as follows: first, the spot transaction markets have been mature; second, the running in of the futures market have provided tots of invaluable experience in recent years; third, a bound of fund leave-unused have established the base for the appearance of the futures market; fourth, we can also use the successful experience in the world for reference; fifth, the relative independence of the financial futures has provided the possibility for it's running in.Besides, several basal financial markets as the footstone of the financial market such as the national debt market, stock market and foreign exchange market, have become mature gradually. It is the inevitable condition for the development of the financial
future business.
To select the scientific developing-stratagem is a critical- piont of the establishment of the financial futures market in China, the step of which could be classified as investigating stage, testing stage and practicing stage. The frame of the financial futures market is as follows: 1, the design of the agreements; 2, the foundation of the supervise system; 3, the foundation of the dealing and settling system; 4, the diathesis of the attendees and the training of the clerks.
引文
[1] 中国人民银行研究课题组．中国国民储蓄的影响因素．经济研究，1999(5)：35～37
[2] Andersen.R, Danthine.J. Hedger Diversity in Futures Markets. Economic Journal, 1993(5):48～53
[3] 王常柏，纪敏．金融资产同资性：关于全能银行的一个理论分析．金融研究，2002(6)：56～62
[4] 施兵超．金融期货与期权．上海：上海三联出版社，1997
[5] 洪崎．金融发展理论与实证分析．中国金融出版社，2000
[6] Sercu.P, R.Uppal, International Financial Markets and the Firm. South-Western College Publishing, 1995
[7] 王秦峰．金融市场风险测量．天津：天津大学出版社，2001
[8] H.Markowitz. Portfolio Selection. Journal of finance, 1952(3):77～81
[9] Paul Van den Bergh. Supervisory Risk Assessment and Early Warning Stystems. the world bank working paper, BIS, 2000
[10] 何德旭．中国金融创新与发展研究．经济科学出版社，2001：86～107
[11] Tsetekos.G. The Structure of Derivatives Exchanges. The World Bank Working Paper, 1998(11):79～82
[12] Allen.F, Gale.D. Financial Innovation and Risk Sharing. MIT Press, Cambridge Mass, 1994
[13] 李经谋，陶琲．中国期货市场理论问题研究．中国财政经济出版社，1997
[14] 吴晓球．中国资本市场未来10年．北京：中国财政经济出版社，2000
[15] 贺强．股指期货避险功能．证券投资教程，中国经济出版社，1998
[16] Robert A. Modern Investment Theory. Hamgen Printice Hall, 1997
[17] Frederic S, Mishkin. The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets. The publishing house of PUC, 1998:89～93
[18] 张明辉．中国国债市场存在的问题及改进措施．中国金融，2002(11)：57～63
[19] 胡继之．金融衍生品及其风险防范管理．中国金融出版社，1998
[20] 利率市场化国际比较研究课题组．我国利率市场化的风险分析．中国金融，2002(3)：21～24
[21] 党剑．股指期货的演进之路．上海证券报，1999，11．11
[22] 陈浪南．中国股票市场波动非对称性的实证研究．金融研究，2002(5)：74～78
[23] 股票指数期货：模式设计和研究．上海期货交易所研究报告，2000，8
[24] 田源．中国期货市场．广东高等教育出版社，1995
[25] U.S Commodity Futures Trading Commission: Exchange-Traded Derivatives, Developing Capital Markets, 1999
[26] 周定真．国债期货与期权．上海三联书店出版社，1998
[27] 杨蜂．海外股指期货市场比较研究．金融研究，2002(7)：36～43
[28] Jiang yang. SHFE has applied for the listing of Stock Index Future and Petroleum future, available from http://www.p5w.net, 2003, 5
[29] Charles,M.S, Sutcliffe. Stock Index Futures. Theories and International Evidence,1999
[30] 张春荣，李文贤．国际期货市场．中国对外经贸出版社，1997
[31] E．S．肖．经济发展中的金融深化．上海三联书店，1995
[32] 潘敏，夏频．国有商业银行信贷资金供求与我国货币政策传导机制．金融研究，2002(6)：63～73
[33] The Supervisory Treatment of Market Risks. Basle, 1995(4): 76～84
[34] 邢天才．我国发展衍生金融市场的几个问题．东北财经大学学报，2000(2)
[35] 刘霞辉．资产价格波动与宏观经济的稳定．经济研究，2002(4)：35～40
[36] 曾剑秋．金融危机与中国．新世界出版社，1998，3
[37] 李晓西，师贸平．我国经济市场化进程分析．经济日报，2002，11．25
[38] 张曙光．化解金融风险与防范外部冲击．金融研究，1998(4)：79-87
[39] 鲍建平．中国期货市场在规范中前进．经济日报．2003，4．12
[40] 杨玉川．金融期货期权市场研究与策划．经济管理出版社，2000
[41] Mackinlay, A.C, and K. Ramaswamy. Index future arbitrage and the behavior of stock index futures prices. Rev. Finance, 1998 (1): 136～158
[42] Phillips, S. M. clearing and settlement of Derivative Products. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1998:88～92
[43] 北京大学国际经济研究所编．金融监管与风险防范．经济日报出版社，1998
[44] 李骥．中国需发展金融衍生品．中国期货，1997(9)：56～58
[45] 菲利普·乔瑞．VAR金融风险管理新标准．北京：中信出版社，2000
[2] Andersen.R, Danthine.J. Hedger Diversity in Futures Markets. Economic Journal, 1993(5):48～53
[3] 王常柏，纪敏．金融资产同资性：关于全能银行的一个理论分析．金融研究，2002(6)：56～62
[4] 施兵超．金融期货与期权．上海：上海三联出版社，1997
[5] 洪崎．金融发展理论与实证分析．中国金融出版社，2000
[6] Sercu.P, R.Uppal, International Financial Markets and the Firm. South-Western College Publishing, 1995
[7] 王秦峰．金融市场风险测量．天津：天津大学出版社，2001
[8] H.Markowitz. Portfolio Selection. Journal of finance, 1952(3):77～81
[9] Paul Van den Bergh. Supervisory Risk Assessment and Early Warning Stystems. the world bank working paper, BIS, 2000
[10] 何德旭．中国金融创新与发展研究．经济科学出版社，2001：86～107
[11] Tsetekos.G. The Structure of Derivatives Exchanges. The World Bank Working Paper, 1998(11):79～82
[12] Allen.F, Gale.D. Financial Innovation and Risk Sharing. MIT Press, Cambridge Mass, 1994
[13] 李经谋，陶琲．中国期货市场理论问题研究．中国财政经济出版社，1997
[14] 吴晓球．中国资本市场未来10年．北京：中国财政经济出版社，2000
[15] 贺强．股指期货避险功能．证券投资教程，中国经济出版社，1998
[16] Robert A. Modern Investment Theory. Hamgen Printice Hall, 1997
[17] Frederic S, Mishkin. The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets. The publishing house of PUC, 1998:89～93
[18] 张明辉．中国国债市场存在的问题及改进措施．中国金融，2002(11)：57～63
[19] 胡继之．金融衍生品及其风险防范管理．中国金融出版社，1998
[20] 利率市场化国际比较研究课题组．我国利率市场化的风险分析．中国金融，2002(3)：21～24
[21] 党剑．股指期货的演进之路．上海证券报，1999，11．11
[22] 陈浪南．中国股票市场波动非对称性的实证研究．金融研究，2002(5)：74～78
[23] 股票指数期货：模式设计和研究．上海期货交易所研究报告，2000，8
[24] 田源．中国期货市场．广东高等教育出版社，1995
[25] U.S Commodity Futures Trading Commission: Exchange-Traded Derivatives, Developing Capital Markets, 1999
[26] 周定真．国债期货与期权．上海三联书店出版社，1998
[27] 杨蜂．海外股指期货市场比较研究．金融研究，2002(7)：36～43
[28] Jiang yang. SHFE has applied for the listing of Stock Index Future and Petroleum future, available from http://www.p5w.net, 2003, 5
[29] Charles,M.S, Sutcliffe. Stock Index Futures. Theories and International Evidence,1999
[30] 张春荣，李文贤．国际期货市场．中国对外经贸出版社，1997
[31] E．S．肖．经济发展中的金融深化．上海三联书店，1995
[32] 潘敏，夏频．国有商业银行信贷资金供求与我国货币政策传导机制．金融研究，2002(6)：63～73
[33] The Supervisory Treatment of Market Risks. Basle, 1995(4): 76～84
[34] 邢天才．我国发展衍生金融市场的几个问题．东北财经大学学报，2000(2)
[35] 刘霞辉．资产价格波动与宏观经济的稳定．经济研究，2002(4)：35～40
[36] 曾剑秋．金融危机与中国．新世界出版社，1998，3
[37] 李晓西，师贸平．我国经济市场化进程分析．经济日报，2002，11．25
[38] 张曙光．化解金融风险与防范外部冲击．金融研究，1998(4)：79-87
[39] 鲍建平．中国期货市场在规范中前进．经济日报．2003，4．12
[40] 杨玉川．金融期货期权市场研究与策划．经济管理出版社，2000
[41] Mackinlay, A.C, and K. Ramaswamy. Index future arbitrage and the behavior of stock index futures prices. Rev. Finance, 1998 (1): 136～158
[42] Phillips, S. M. clearing and settlement of Derivative Products. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1998:88～92
[43] 北京大学国际经济研究所编．金融监管与风险防范．经济日报出版社，1998
[44] 李骥．中国需发展金融衍生品．中国期货，1997(9)：56～58
[45] 菲利普·乔瑞．VAR金融风险管理新标准．北京：中信出版社，2000