我国农业综合生产能力动态评价与相关问题研究
|
摘要
农业综合生产能力是一个国家综合国力的重要组成部分,是体现一个国家的农业生产力、农业生产关系和农业上层建筑发展水平的主要标志,它是农村经济和社会发展的一种重要实力,是一个国家或地区综合竞争力的基础。我国是一个拥有十三亿多人口的发展中国家,提高农业综合生产能力,确保我国粮食安全是推动我国国民经济发展、社会稳定和国家自立的基础,是直接关系到国计民生的大事,是我国当前一项重大而紧迫的战略任务。对我国农业综合生产能力进行动态评价与分析有助于掌握我国农业的基本情况,科学分析现阶段我国农业综合生产能力的发展情况,正确认识影响我国农业综合生产能力的主客观因素及其所面临的现实问题,对于开拓农业发展的新思路,转变农业发展战略,保持我国农业持续健康发展、维护社会安定、促进国家经济发展、增加农民收入,具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。
本研究在对农业综合生产能力的相关概念进行界定的基础上,运用系统评价理论、农业经济理论、区域经济理论和可持续发展理论,基于我国农业综合生产能力的各种影响因素,构建了较全面的、均可以量化的我国农业综合生产能力评价指标体系。在此基础上,运用回归分析方法对各评价指标数据进行回归分析,以克服各评价指标数值受年景好坏不同而造成的波动性影响,然后运用层次分析法和综合评价法对我国农业综合生产能力进行评价与分析。最后,根据对我国农业综合生产能力的动态评价与分析,提出了提高我国农业综合生产能力的对策和建议。
研究的主要内容有：
(1)在对农业综合生产能力的相关概念进行界定的基础上,运用系统评价理论、农业经济理论、区域经济理论和可持续发展理论,基于我国农业综合生产能力的各种影响因素,构建了比较全面的、均可以量化的我国农业综合生产能力评价指标体系。对一些相关指标进行了定义,并对一些不能直接查找得到的指标列出了计算公式。
(2)运用回归分析方法得出了我国农业综合生产能力评价指标的相应数据。根据各统计年鉴中1997-2010年相应评价指标的数据,运用回归分析的方法对各评价指标数据进行回归分析,预测得出了各评价指标2011-2015年的数据。通过回归分析,不仅可以克服各评价指标数值受年景好坏不同而造成的波动性影响的不足,还可以据此对我国农业综合生产能力进行动态评价。
(3)将层次分析法和综合评判法运用于我国农业综合生产能力的动态评价中。利用14年的统计数据,32个评价指标对我国农业综合生产能力进行了动态评价,给出了各类评价指标的动态变化情况和综合评价结果。
(4)对我国农业综合生产能力的变化趋势进行了分析。首先,对我国农业综合生产能力的总体变化趋势进行了分析。从1997-2015年,我国农业综合生产能力不断增强,呈逐年上升的趋势,且增势平稳。其次,对我国农业综合生产能力的资源保障能力的变化趋势进行了分析。资源指标的保障能力总体上虽然在加强,但并不稳定,个别年份有减弱的趋势(如2003年),有时还有较大的波动(如1997-2003)。资源指标总体上虽然呈现出了一个增长的趋势,但增速相对于支撑指标和效益指标来说是比较缓慢的,这说明我国资源总量虽多,但有待开发利用的资源相对较少。三是对我国农业支撑指标的变化趋势进行了分析。我国农业支撑指标的变化趋势呈现出了增长趋势,且增势平稳,增速较快。四是对我国农业的效益指标的变化趋势进行了分析。效益指标呈现出了上升趋势,社会效益和经济效益指标也呈现出了上升趋势,且社会效益指标的上升趋势最为明显,增速也最快。
(5)首次建立了基于农业综合生产能力的粮食产量和农业总产值的组合关系模型,并据此预测了我国的粮食产量和农业总产值。
(6)根据我国农业综合生产能力的评价结果和趋势分析,提出了提高我国农业综合生产能力的对策和建议。针对资源要素,要加强资源的保护与利用,进一步提高资源的保障能力。可以采取加强土地承载能力建设、推进土地集约化经营等措施。针对支撑要素,可以采取增加农田的有效灌溉面积、提高我国农业机械化水平、提高农民的素质、加大科技投资力度、培育专业大户家庭农场和农民合作社等新型生产经营组织、大力推进农村生态文明建设、增加农村固定资产投资等措施。针对效益要素,可以采取提高粮食单产、努力提高农民人均纯收入等措施。
本研究的创新之处在于：
(1)构建了农业综合生产能力评价指标体系。该评价指标体系包括了3个一级指标、7个二级指标和32个三级指标。
(2)采用动态评价的思路与方法,对我国农业综合生产能力进行动态评价与分析,并通过对各指标的回归克服了各指标受年景好坏之影响的不足。
(3)采用动态评价,利用14年的统计数据,32个评价指标对我国农业综合生产能力进行了评价,给出了各类评价指标的动态变化情况和综合评价结果,并对其变化趋势进行了分析。
(4)首次建立了基于农业综合生产能力的粮食产量和农业总产值的组合关系模型,并据此预测了我国的粮食产量和农业总产值。
Agricultural comprehensive production capacity is one of the essential parts of overall national strength, is the main marks of national or regional agricultural production capacity, agricultural relations of production and development status of agricultural superstructure. It is one of the rural economic and social development important strength, is the basis of the comprehensive competitiveness of a country or a region.China is a developing country with a population of more than1.3billion people. To improve the agricultural production capacity and to ensure the food security is the cornerstone of nation economy, social stability and National self-reliance. Today, it matters vital to national well-being and the people's livelihood and it is a major and urgent strategic task. Dynamic evaluation and analysis of agricultural comprehensive production capacity of China is helpful to us for grasping the basic situation of China's agriculture.Scientifically analyzing the characteristics of the level of domestic agricultural comprehensive production capacity at the present stage, a correctly understanding of the influencing factors about the overall agricultural production capacity and of its major problem we are facing, broadening new ideas for the development of agriculture, transforming agricultural development strategies, maintaining the sustained and stable development of China's agriculture, maintaining social stability in rural areas, promoting the development of the rural economics, increasing farmers'income, has extraordinary theoretical and practical significance.
According to the factors which impact China's comprehensive agricultural production capacity, the thesis employs system evaluation theory, agricultural economy theory, regional economic theory and the theory of sustainable development to build China's agricultural comprehensive production capacity evaluation index system by defining the concept of comprehensive agricultural production capacity. On this basis, it could be processed the evaluation data by means of regression analysis to overcome the volatility caused by the evaluation index values in good times or badtimes. And then, it could be takenmethods of analytic hierarchy process and comprehensive evaluation to measure China's comprehensive agricultural production capacity. Finally, we could propose countermeasures and suggestions about how to improve China's comprehensive agricultural production capacity in terms of the above conclusion.
Main contents of study include:
(1) According to the factors which impact China's comprehensive agricultural production capacity, the thesis employs system evaluation theory, agricultural economy theory, regional economic theory and the theory of sustainable development to build China's agricultural comprehensive production capacity evaluation index system by defining the concept of comprehensive agricultural production capacity. It could be showed that the definitions of each evaluation index and corresponding formula and analysis the characteristics of dimensionless processing method of evaluation indexes.
(2) We get the corresponding data for agricultural comprehensive production capacity in China by means of regression analysis. After that, we couldtake methods of analytic hierarchy process and comprehensive evaluation to process the data and obtain forecasts during the period from2011to2015by checking statistical yearbook1997-2010. After the processing, it could be overcome the volatility caused by the evaluation index values in good times or bad and dynamically evaluate agricultural comprehensive production capacity.
(3) Applying analytic hierarchy process and comprehensive evaluation to dynamic evaluation of the agricultural comprehensive production capacity. Using14years of statistical data and32evaluation indexes for the evaluation of dynamic agricultural comprehensive production capacity,then presented the status of the dynamic changes of the various evaluation index and comprehensive evaluation results.
(4) Analyzing the change tendency of the agricultural comprehensive production capacity in China.First of all,analyzing our country agriculture comprehensive production capacity of the overall trends.From1997to2015, the comprehensive agricultural production capacity is increasing in our country, showed a trend of rising year by year, and growing steady. Secondly, analyzing our country agriculture comprehensive production capacity of the change trend of resource support capability.Resource metrics of though in strengthening the overall support capability, however, it is not stable, individual years has a weakening trend (e.g.,2003),sometimes there were larger fluctuations (such as1997-2003).Resource metrics, on the whole, although present a growth trend, however, growth relative to support index and benefit index is relatively slow,it appeared that though our country with large number of resources,relatively few resources to be developed. Thirdly, our country agriculture support index change trend are analyzed. Change trend of Chinese agriculture support index revealed a trend of growth, steady and growth, the growth speed relatively quick. The fourth, for the benefit of the agricultural comprehensive production capacity indicators of change trend are analyzed. The efficiency of agricultural comprehensive production capacity of present a rising trend, social benefit and economic benefit indicators also present a rising trend. The fifth, the social efficiency index rising trend is most obvious, and fastest growth.
(5) Established the relational model of the combination base on food output and total output value of agriculture of the agricultural comprehensive production capacity for the first time, According to the relational model of the combination, forecasted food output and total output value of agriculture in China.
(6) According to the evaluation results of agricultural comprehensive production capacity of and trend analysis, put forward the countermeasure and the suggestion of improving agricultural comprehensive production capacity. In view of the resources, to strengthen the protection and utilization of resources, improve resource support capability. It could be taken to strengthen the construction of land carrying capacity, promoting land intensive management measures, etc. Aimed at supporting elements, could take to increase the effective irrigation area of farmland, improve the level of agricultural mechanization in our country, to improve the quality of the farmers, increase investment in science and technology, cultivation of professional investors, family farms and farmers cooperatives and other new type of production and operation organizations, promote the building of rural ecological civilization, and increasing rural fixed asset investment and other measures. In view of the benefit factor, could be taken to improve the per unit area yield of grain, efforts to increase the per capita net income of farmers and other measures.
The innovation place of this study include:
(1) Established a scientific and reasonable evaluation index system of agricultural comprehensive production capacity, use analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to calculate the weights of each evaluation index, and a consistency test was carried out.
(2) According to the statistical yearbook data of the corresponding evaluation index, using the regression analysis method to carry on the forecast, the return of each evaluation index overcomes the deficiency of times has a direct influence on the volatility caused by different.
(3) Used14years of statistics and32evaluation indexes for the evaluation of dynamic agricultural comprehensive production capacity, and gives the dynamic change of all kinds of evaluation index and comprehensive evaluation results, and its change trend are analyzed.
(4) Established the relational model of the combination base on food output and total output value of agriculture of the agricultural comprehensive production capacity for the first time, According to the relational model of the combination, forecasted food output and total output value of agriculture in China.
本研究在对农业综合生产能力的相关概念进行界定的基础上,运用系统评价理论、农业经济理论、区域经济理论和可持续发展理论,基于我国农业综合生产能力的各种影响因素,构建了较全面的、均可以量化的我国农业综合生产能力评价指标体系。在此基础上,运用回归分析方法对各评价指标数据进行回归分析,以克服各评价指标数值受年景好坏不同而造成的波动性影响,然后运用层次分析法和综合评价法对我国农业综合生产能力进行评价与分析。最后,根据对我国农业综合生产能力的动态评价与分析,提出了提高我国农业综合生产能力的对策和建议。
研究的主要内容有：
(1)在对农业综合生产能力的相关概念进行界定的基础上,运用系统评价理论、农业经济理论、区域经济理论和可持续发展理论,基于我国农业综合生产能力的各种影响因素,构建了比较全面的、均可以量化的我国农业综合生产能力评价指标体系。对一些相关指标进行了定义,并对一些不能直接查找得到的指标列出了计算公式。
(2)运用回归分析方法得出了我国农业综合生产能力评价指标的相应数据。根据各统计年鉴中1997-2010年相应评价指标的数据,运用回归分析的方法对各评价指标数据进行回归分析,预测得出了各评价指标2011-2015年的数据。通过回归分析,不仅可以克服各评价指标数值受年景好坏不同而造成的波动性影响的不足,还可以据此对我国农业综合生产能力进行动态评价。
(3)将层次分析法和综合评判法运用于我国农业综合生产能力的动态评价中。利用14年的统计数据,32个评价指标对我国农业综合生产能力进行了动态评价,给出了各类评价指标的动态变化情况和综合评价结果。
(4)对我国农业综合生产能力的变化趋势进行了分析。首先,对我国农业综合生产能力的总体变化趋势进行了分析。从1997-2015年,我国农业综合生产能力不断增强,呈逐年上升的趋势,且增势平稳。其次,对我国农业综合生产能力的资源保障能力的变化趋势进行了分析。资源指标的保障能力总体上虽然在加强,但并不稳定,个别年份有减弱的趋势(如2003年),有时还有较大的波动(如1997-2003)。资源指标总体上虽然呈现出了一个增长的趋势,但增速相对于支撑指标和效益指标来说是比较缓慢的,这说明我国资源总量虽多,但有待开发利用的资源相对较少。三是对我国农业支撑指标的变化趋势进行了分析。我国农业支撑指标的变化趋势呈现出了增长趋势,且增势平稳,增速较快。四是对我国农业的效益指标的变化趋势进行了分析。效益指标呈现出了上升趋势,社会效益和经济效益指标也呈现出了上升趋势,且社会效益指标的上升趋势最为明显,增速也最快。
(5)首次建立了基于农业综合生产能力的粮食产量和农业总产值的组合关系模型,并据此预测了我国的粮食产量和农业总产值。
(6)根据我国农业综合生产能力的评价结果和趋势分析,提出了提高我国农业综合生产能力的对策和建议。针对资源要素,要加强资源的保护与利用,进一步提高资源的保障能力。可以采取加强土地承载能力建设、推进土地集约化经营等措施。针对支撑要素,可以采取增加农田的有效灌溉面积、提高我国农业机械化水平、提高农民的素质、加大科技投资力度、培育专业大户家庭农场和农民合作社等新型生产经营组织、大力推进农村生态文明建设、增加农村固定资产投资等措施。针对效益要素,可以采取提高粮食单产、努力提高农民人均纯收入等措施。
本研究的创新之处在于：
(1)构建了农业综合生产能力评价指标体系。该评价指标体系包括了3个一级指标、7个二级指标和32个三级指标。
(2)采用动态评价的思路与方法,对我国农业综合生产能力进行动态评价与分析,并通过对各指标的回归克服了各指标受年景好坏之影响的不足。
(3)采用动态评价,利用14年的统计数据,32个评价指标对我国农业综合生产能力进行了评价,给出了各类评价指标的动态变化情况和综合评价结果,并对其变化趋势进行了分析。
(4)首次建立了基于农业综合生产能力的粮食产量和农业总产值的组合关系模型,并据此预测了我国的粮食产量和农业总产值。
Agricultural comprehensive production capacity is one of the essential parts of overall national strength, is the main marks of national or regional agricultural production capacity, agricultural relations of production and development status of agricultural superstructure. It is one of the rural economic and social development important strength, is the basis of the comprehensive competitiveness of a country or a region.China is a developing country with a population of more than1.3billion people. To improve the agricultural production capacity and to ensure the food security is the cornerstone of nation economy, social stability and National self-reliance. Today, it matters vital to national well-being and the people's livelihood and it is a major and urgent strategic task. Dynamic evaluation and analysis of agricultural comprehensive production capacity of China is helpful to us for grasping the basic situation of China's agriculture.Scientifically analyzing the characteristics of the level of domestic agricultural comprehensive production capacity at the present stage, a correctly understanding of the influencing factors about the overall agricultural production capacity and of its major problem we are facing, broadening new ideas for the development of agriculture, transforming agricultural development strategies, maintaining the sustained and stable development of China's agriculture, maintaining social stability in rural areas, promoting the development of the rural economics, increasing farmers'income, has extraordinary theoretical and practical significance.
According to the factors which impact China's comprehensive agricultural production capacity, the thesis employs system evaluation theory, agricultural economy theory, regional economic theory and the theory of sustainable development to build China's agricultural comprehensive production capacity evaluation index system by defining the concept of comprehensive agricultural production capacity. On this basis, it could be processed the evaluation data by means of regression analysis to overcome the volatility caused by the evaluation index values in good times or badtimes. And then, it could be takenmethods of analytic hierarchy process and comprehensive evaluation to measure China's comprehensive agricultural production capacity. Finally, we could propose countermeasures and suggestions about how to improve China's comprehensive agricultural production capacity in terms of the above conclusion.
Main contents of study include:
(1) According to the factors which impact China's comprehensive agricultural production capacity, the thesis employs system evaluation theory, agricultural economy theory, regional economic theory and the theory of sustainable development to build China's agricultural comprehensive production capacity evaluation index system by defining the concept of comprehensive agricultural production capacity. It could be showed that the definitions of each evaluation index and corresponding formula and analysis the characteristics of dimensionless processing method of evaluation indexes.
(2) We get the corresponding data for agricultural comprehensive production capacity in China by means of regression analysis. After that, we couldtake methods of analytic hierarchy process and comprehensive evaluation to process the data and obtain forecasts during the period from2011to2015by checking statistical yearbook1997-2010. After the processing, it could be overcome the volatility caused by the evaluation index values in good times or bad and dynamically evaluate agricultural comprehensive production capacity.
(3) Applying analytic hierarchy process and comprehensive evaluation to dynamic evaluation of the agricultural comprehensive production capacity. Using14years of statistical data and32evaluation indexes for the evaluation of dynamic agricultural comprehensive production capacity,then presented the status of the dynamic changes of the various evaluation index and comprehensive evaluation results.
(4) Analyzing the change tendency of the agricultural comprehensive production capacity in China.First of all,analyzing our country agriculture comprehensive production capacity of the overall trends.From1997to2015, the comprehensive agricultural production capacity is increasing in our country, showed a trend of rising year by year, and growing steady. Secondly, analyzing our country agriculture comprehensive production capacity of the change trend of resource support capability.Resource metrics of though in strengthening the overall support capability, however, it is not stable, individual years has a weakening trend (e.g.,2003),sometimes there were larger fluctuations (such as1997-2003).Resource metrics, on the whole, although present a growth trend, however, growth relative to support index and benefit index is relatively slow,it appeared that though our country with large number of resources,relatively few resources to be developed. Thirdly, our country agriculture support index change trend are analyzed. Change trend of Chinese agriculture support index revealed a trend of growth, steady and growth, the growth speed relatively quick. The fourth, for the benefit of the agricultural comprehensive production capacity indicators of change trend are analyzed. The efficiency of agricultural comprehensive production capacity of present a rising trend, social benefit and economic benefit indicators also present a rising trend. The fifth, the social efficiency index rising trend is most obvious, and fastest growth.
(5) Established the relational model of the combination base on food output and total output value of agriculture of the agricultural comprehensive production capacity for the first time, According to the relational model of the combination, forecasted food output and total output value of agriculture in China.
(6) According to the evaluation results of agricultural comprehensive production capacity of and trend analysis, put forward the countermeasure and the suggestion of improving agricultural comprehensive production capacity. In view of the resources, to strengthen the protection and utilization of resources, improve resource support capability. It could be taken to strengthen the construction of land carrying capacity, promoting land intensive management measures, etc. Aimed at supporting elements, could take to increase the effective irrigation area of farmland, improve the level of agricultural mechanization in our country, to improve the quality of the farmers, increase investment in science and technology, cultivation of professional investors, family farms and farmers cooperatives and other new type of production and operation organizations, promote the building of rural ecological civilization, and increasing rural fixed asset investment and other measures. In view of the benefit factor, could be taken to improve the per unit area yield of grain, efforts to increase the per capita net income of farmers and other measures.
The innovation place of this study include:
(1) Established a scientific and reasonable evaluation index system of agricultural comprehensive production capacity, use analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to calculate the weights of each evaluation index, and a consistency test was carried out.
(2) According to the statistical yearbook data of the corresponding evaluation index, using the regression analysis method to carry on the forecast, the return of each evaluation index overcomes the deficiency of times has a direct influence on the volatility caused by different.
(3) Used14years of statistics and32evaluation indexes for the evaluation of dynamic agricultural comprehensive production capacity, and gives the dynamic change of all kinds of evaluation index and comprehensive evaluation results, and its change trend are analyzed.
(4) Established the relational model of the combination base on food output and total output value of agriculture of the agricultural comprehensive production capacity for the first time, According to the relational model of the combination, forecasted food output and total output value of agriculture in China.
引文
[1]陈丽能,谢永良.DEA方法在农业综合生产能力评价中的应用[J].浙江大学学报(农业与生命科学版),2000,26(4)：447-450.
[2]吕向东.我国农业综合生产能力研究[D].北京：中国农业科学院,2006.
[3]Dumankski J., and Stewart R.B., Crop Production Potentials for Land evaluation in Canada[M]. Research Branch Agriculture Canada, Ottawa,1983.
[4]Land Study Bureau, Detailed Land Classification-Island of Oahu[M]. LSB Bull, 11. University Hawaii, Honolulu,1972.
[5]Berger K. C., Hole F. D. Beardsley J. M. A Soil Productivity Score Card[M]. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. Proc.,1952,16:307-309.
[6]Fenton T. E., Duncan E. R., Shrader W. D., et al. Productivity Levels of Some Iowa Soils[J]. Iowa State Univ Ext Spec Rep,1971,66.
[7]Walker C. F., A method to Estimate Corn Yields for Indiana Soils[D]. M.S. thesis, Purdue University,1976.
[8]Huddleston J. H. Agricultural Productivity Ratings for Soils of the Willamett Valley[M]. Oregon State University Extension Service,1982.
[9]John Pender, Ephraim Nkonya, Pamela Jagger, Dick Sserunkuuma and Henry Ssali. Strategies to increase agricultural productivity and reduce land degradation:evidence from Uganda[J]. Agricultural Economics,2004,31(2-3):181-195.
[10]崔青春,倪绍祥,陈思源等.GIS与土地生产力评价模型的集成[J].农机化研究,2004,26(2)：18-21.
[11]Tirol-Padre and J.K.Ladha. Integrating rice and wheat productivity trends using the SAS mixed-procedure and meta-analysis[M]. Field Crops Research in Press, Corrected Proof Available online 3, March 2005.
[12]B.Zhang, YZhang, D.Chen, R.E.White and Y Li. A quantitative evaluation system of soil productivity for intensive agriculture in China[J]. Geoderma,2004:123(3):319-331.
[13]Charnes, A. W. W. Cooper and E. Rhodes. Evaluating Program and Managerial Efficiency: An Application of Data Envelopment Analysis to Program Follow Through[J]. Management Science,1981,27(6):668-971.
[14]Ruttan VW. Productivity Growth in World Agriculture:Sources and Constraints [M]. Journal of Economic Perspectives,2002,16:161-84.
[15]胡存智.农用地分等定级理论与方法研究[M].北京：地质出版社,2004.
[16]濮励杰,周峰,彭补拙.长江三角洲地区县域耕地变化驱动要素研究——以原锡山市为例[J].南京大学学报(自然科学版),2002,38(6)：780-785.
[17]李岳云.“谁来养活中国”的争论及其启示[J].农业经济问题,1996,(10)：2-6.
[18]林毅夫.我国主要粮食作物单产潜力与增产前景[J].中国农业资源与区划,1995,(3)： 4-7.
[19]Alejandro Nin, Channing Arndt and Paul V Preckel. Is agricultural productivity in developing countries really shrinking? New evidence using a modified nonparametric approach[J]. Journal of Development Economics,2003,71(2):395-415.
[20]Anit N.Mukherjee, Yoshimi Kuroda. Productivity growth in Indian agriculture:is there evidence of convergence across states?[J]. Agricultural Economics,2003,29(1):43-53.
[21]Cheng Shing, Tsang Shu-ki. The Changing Grain Marketing System in China[J]. The China Quarterly,1994, (140):1080-1104.
[22]E.C. MamatzakisPublic infrastructure and productivity growth in Greek agricuIture[J]. Agricultural Economics,2003,29(2):169-180.
[23]Fan Shenggen. Production and Productivity Growth in Chinese Agriculture:New Measurement and Evidence[J]. Food Policy 1997,22(3):213-229.
[24]Jikun H., Rozelle S. Technological Change:Rediscovering the Engine of Productivity Growth in China's Rural Economy[J]. Journal of Development Economics,1996,49 (2): 337-369.
[25]王士武,阎琛荣,柴玲.水资源承载能力及其定量衡量[J],黑龙江水专学报,1998(2)：24-26.
[26]杨子生.攀西地区土地资源生产能力及人口承载能力的初步分析[J].国土与自然资源研究,1988(3)：21-26.
[27]陈百明.中国农业资源综合生产能力与人口承载能力[M].北京：气象出版社,2001.
[28]张凤荣.重在保持耕地生产能力——对新形势下耕地总量动态平衡的理解[J].中国土地,2003(7)：13-15.
[29]蒋承菘.保护耕地的再审视——从科学发展观谈耕地生产能力保护[J].中国土地,2006(3)：14-16.
[30]李子良.耕地生产能力时空变异特征及主控因素研究[D].河北农业大学,2011.
[31]许有鹏.干早区水资源承载能力综合评价研究——以新疆和田河流域为例[J].自然资源学报,1993,8(3)：229-237.
[32]傅湘,纪昌明.区域水资源承载能力综合评价——主成分分析法的应用[J].长江流域资源与环境,1995,8(2)：168-172.
[33]张丽,董增川,张伟.水资源可持续承载能力概念及研究思路探讨[J].水利学报,2003,(10)：108-112,118.
[34]王维国,岳国峰,郎景波.齐齐哈尔地区水资源可持续承载能力分析[J].节水灌溉,2012,(2)：50-56.
[35]梁荣.农业综合生产能力初探[J].中国农村经济,2005(12)：4-11.
[36]王元、刘冬梅.提高农业综合生产能力的科技对策[J].北京：北京出版社,2011.
[37]薛邦城,蒙慧.农业生产结构调整与经济增长[J].科学·经济·社会,2001,19(3)：54-58.
[38]石玉林.调整农业结构,提高农业综合生产能力[N].科技日报,2006.
[39]孟凡艳,孙芳.农业结构调整对提高农业综合生产能力的作用[J].内蒙古农业科技,2006(3)：7-8,23.
[40]《中国农业综合生产能力研究》课题组.中国农业综合生产能力研究[J].管理世界,1994,(4)：166-175.
[41]王启现,李志强,刘振虎等.“十五”全国农业科技进步贡献率测算与2020年预测[J].农业现代化研究,2006,27(6)：416-419.
[42]李林杰,王红涛.加快农业科技进步推进现代农业发展[J].农业现代化研究,2008,29(2)：163-167.
[43]《山东省农业科技进步贡献率影响因子分析及对策》课题组.山东省农业科技进步贡献率测算报告(一)[J].山东农业科学,2012,44(3)：127-132.
[44]赵士洞,王礼茂.可持续发展的概念和内涵[J].自然资源学报,1996,11(3)：288-292.
[45]朱冰,李萍.我国农业可持续发展能力初探[J].辽宁教育行政学院学报,2003,20(7)：15-16.
[46]蔡承智,陈阜,梁颖.对我国农业可持续发展途径的探讨[J].现代化农业,2002(11)：40-43.
[47]丁笑生,段红英.实现我国农业可持续发展的途径[J].安徽农业科学,2007,35(28)：9084-9085.
[48]张壬午,张彤,计文瑛等.农业可持续发展模式设计的自然资源评价方法初探[J].生态农业研究,1996,4(4)：5-8.
[49]黎东升.论农业可持续发展及其评价指标体系的建立[J].湖北农学院学报,2000,20(3)：263-265.
[50]高鹏,刘燕妮.中国农业可持续发展能力区域评价[J].中国软科学,2011(S1)：163-169.
[5 1]张苏林.全面理解农业综合生产能力的概念[OL].http://www.sn.xinhuanet.com/2006-10/ 17/content_8278227.htm,2006-10-17.
[52]马文杰,冯中朝.粮食综合生产能力与耕地流失的关系研究[J].农业现代化研究,2005,26(5)：353-357.
[53]雷锡禄.增加和管好用好农业固定资产投资,提高农业综合生产能力[J].经济研究参考,1993(1)：2-10.
[54]王福林.农业系统工程[M].北京：中国农业出版社,2006.
[55]陈衍泰,陈国宏,李美娟.综合评价方法分类及研究进展[J].管理科学学报,2004,7(2)：69-79.
[56]顾基发.评价方法综述[C].科学决策与系统工程——中国系统工程学会第六次年会论文集,1990.
[57]Dasgupta A. K., Pearce D. Cost Benefit Analysis Theory and Practice [M]. London: Macmillan,1978.
[58]中国地区经济发展课题组.中国区域经济不平衡发展战略评估与分析[J].管理世界,1993(4)：176-185.
[59]Squire L., Tak H. Economic Analysis of Projects. California:Johns Hopkins University Press. 1975.
[60]Chankong V., Haimes Y. Y. Multiple Objective Decision Making:Theory and Methodology[M]. New York:Elsevier,1983.
[61]Hwang C. L., MD Aasud A. S. Multiple Objective Decision Making, Methods and Applications[M]. Berlin; Spring Verlag Press,1979.
[62]Lichtenberg Fank R. Issues in measuring industrial R&D[J]. Research Plicy,1990,19 (1). 157-163.
[63]Charnes A., Copper W. W., Rhodes E. Measuring the efficiency of decision making units[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,1978,2:429-444.
[64]魏权龄.评价相对有效性的DEA方法[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1988.
[65]Cooper W. W., Tone K. Measures of inefficiency in data envelopment analysis and stochastic frontier estimation[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,1997 (2):72-78.
[66]王军霞,官建成.复合DEA方法在测度企业知识管理绩效中的应用[J].科学学研究,2002,84-88.
[67]李红,朱建平.综合评价方法研究进展评述[J].统计与决策,2012(9)：7-11.
[68]刘英平,林志贵,沈祖诒.有效区分决策单元的数据包络分析方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2006,26(3)：112-116.
[69]许祥鹏.基于改进的DEA模型在效率评价中的应用[J].财金研究,2011(6)： 60-62.
[70]徐小钦,黄馨,梁彭勇.基于DEA与Malmquist指数法的区域科技创新效率评价——以重庆市为例[J].2009,28(6)：974-985.
[71]岳朝龙,黄永兴,严忠.SAS系统与经济统计分析[J].北京：中国科学技术大学出版社,2003.
[72]虞晓芬,傅玳.多指标综合评价方法综述[J].统计与决策,2004(11)：119-121.
[73]王永石.区域农业综合生产能力评价研究[D].哈尔滨：东北农业大学,2008.
[74]陈宏民.系统工程导论[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2006.
[75]Saaty T. L. fundamentals of Decision Making and Priority Theory with the analytic Hierarchy Process[M]. Princeton:RWS Publications,1994.
[76]Schenkerman S. Avoiding rank reversal in AHP decision support models [J]. European Journal of Operational Research,1994,74(3):407-419.
[77]Carrettoni F., Castano S., Martella G. et al. RETISS:A real time security system for threat detection using fuzzy logic[C]. TaiPei:Proceeding of 25th IEEE International Carnahan Conference on Security Technology,1991,161-167.
[78]Chen S. J., Hwang C. L. Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making[M]. Berlin:Springer Press,,1992.
[79]陈国宏.R&D项目中止决策的Fuzzy模型识别[J].科学学研究,1986,16(1)：68-74.
[80]Dimitras A. I., Slowinski R., Susmaga R., et al. Business failure prediction using rough sets[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,1999,114(2):263-280.
[81]水本雅晴.模糊数学及其应用[M].北京：科学出版社,1988.
[82]Wang m. J. J., Snant J.Drury C. G., et al. Fuzzy Set Evaluation of Inspection Performance[J]. International Journal of Man-Machine Studies,1991,35(4):587-596.
[83]王宗军,冯珊.社会经济系统仿真方案的多层次Fuzzy综合评价[J].华中理工大学学报,1993,21(3)：12-18.
[84]林海斌.基于TOPSIS法的社会科学评价研究[D].武汉：华中科技大学,2007.
[85]高洪深.区域经济学[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2010：115-130.
[86]李红锦.区域经济增长理论述评[J].生产力研究,2007(7)：138-139.
[87]冯邦彦,李红锦.区域经济增长理论演变及其最新进展[J].经济论坛,2006(6)：12-13.
[88]刘艳清.区域经济可持续发展系统的协调度研究[J].社会科学辑刊,2000(5)：79-83.
[89]Simon H. Models of Man[M]. New York:John Wiley & Sons,1957.
[90]牛文元.中国可持续发展总论[M].北京：科学出版社,2007.
[91]Kates R.W., Clark W. C, Corell R., et al. Sustainability Science[J]. Science,2001,292 (5517):641-642.
[92]姚於康.江苏农业综合生产能力评价指标体系构建及其实际测评[J].江西农业学报.2009,21(3)：165-169.
[93]张慧明.新疆农业综合生产能力动态评价与分析[D].黑龙江：东北农业大学,2010.
[94]赵岩,闫晶怡.节水型循环经济必要性研究——以黑龙江生态省建设为例[J].环境科学与管理,2008,33(2)：159-177.
[95]刘云玲.农村土地走向集约化经营研究[J].山西农业科学,2008,36(6)：11-12.
[96]柳长顺,杜丽娟,陈献等.近20年我国有效灌溉面积动态分析[J].资源科学,2006,28(2)：8-12.
[97]吴晓涛.“农业机械化水平”与“农业装备水平”比较分析研究[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(8)：4257-4258,4306.
[98]杨建新.建设生态文明促进人与自然和谐发展[J].发展,2011(2)：96-97.
[2]吕向东.我国农业综合生产能力研究[D].北京：中国农业科学院,2006.
[3]Dumankski J., and Stewart R.B., Crop Production Potentials for Land evaluation in Canada[M]. Research Branch Agriculture Canada, Ottawa,1983.
[4]Land Study Bureau, Detailed Land Classification-Island of Oahu[M]. LSB Bull, 11. University Hawaii, Honolulu,1972.
[5]Berger K. C., Hole F. D. Beardsley J. M. A Soil Productivity Score Card[M]. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. Proc.,1952,16:307-309.
[6]Fenton T. E., Duncan E. R., Shrader W. D., et al. Productivity Levels of Some Iowa Soils[J]. Iowa State Univ Ext Spec Rep,1971,66.
[7]Walker C. F., A method to Estimate Corn Yields for Indiana Soils[D]. M.S. thesis, Purdue University,1976.
[8]Huddleston J. H. Agricultural Productivity Ratings for Soils of the Willamett Valley[M]. Oregon State University Extension Service,1982.
[9]John Pender, Ephraim Nkonya, Pamela Jagger, Dick Sserunkuuma and Henry Ssali. Strategies to increase agricultural productivity and reduce land degradation:evidence from Uganda[J]. Agricultural Economics,2004,31(2-3):181-195.
[10]崔青春,倪绍祥,陈思源等.GIS与土地生产力评价模型的集成[J].农机化研究,2004,26(2)：18-21.
[11]Tirol-Padre and J.K.Ladha. Integrating rice and wheat productivity trends using the SAS mixed-procedure and meta-analysis[M]. Field Crops Research in Press, Corrected Proof Available online 3, March 2005.
[12]B.Zhang, YZhang, D.Chen, R.E.White and Y Li. A quantitative evaluation system of soil productivity for intensive agriculture in China[J]. Geoderma,2004:123(3):319-331.
[13]Charnes, A. W. W. Cooper and E. Rhodes. Evaluating Program and Managerial Efficiency: An Application of Data Envelopment Analysis to Program Follow Through[J]. Management Science,1981,27(6):668-971.
[14]Ruttan VW. Productivity Growth in World Agriculture:Sources and Constraints [M]. Journal of Economic Perspectives,2002,16:161-84.
[15]胡存智.农用地分等定级理论与方法研究[M].北京：地质出版社,2004.
[16]濮励杰,周峰,彭补拙.长江三角洲地区县域耕地变化驱动要素研究——以原锡山市为例[J].南京大学学报(自然科学版),2002,38(6)：780-785.
[17]李岳云.“谁来养活中国”的争论及其启示[J].农业经济问题,1996,(10)：2-6.
[18]林毅夫.我国主要粮食作物单产潜力与增产前景[J].中国农业资源与区划,1995,(3)： 4-7.
[19]Alejandro Nin, Channing Arndt and Paul V Preckel. Is agricultural productivity in developing countries really shrinking? New evidence using a modified nonparametric approach[J]. Journal of Development Economics,2003,71(2):395-415.
[20]Anit N.Mukherjee, Yoshimi Kuroda. Productivity growth in Indian agriculture:is there evidence of convergence across states?[J]. Agricultural Economics,2003,29(1):43-53.
[21]Cheng Shing, Tsang Shu-ki. The Changing Grain Marketing System in China[J]. The China Quarterly,1994, (140):1080-1104.
[22]E.C. MamatzakisPublic infrastructure and productivity growth in Greek agricuIture[J]. Agricultural Economics,2003,29(2):169-180.
[23]Fan Shenggen. Production and Productivity Growth in Chinese Agriculture:New Measurement and Evidence[J]. Food Policy 1997,22(3):213-229.
[24]Jikun H., Rozelle S. Technological Change:Rediscovering the Engine of Productivity Growth in China's Rural Economy[J]. Journal of Development Economics,1996,49 (2): 337-369.
[25]王士武,阎琛荣,柴玲.水资源承载能力及其定量衡量[J],黑龙江水专学报,1998(2)：24-26.
[26]杨子生.攀西地区土地资源生产能力及人口承载能力的初步分析[J].国土与自然资源研究,1988(3)：21-26.
[27]陈百明.中国农业资源综合生产能力与人口承载能力[M].北京：气象出版社,2001.
[28]张凤荣.重在保持耕地生产能力——对新形势下耕地总量动态平衡的理解[J].中国土地,2003(7)：13-15.
[29]蒋承菘.保护耕地的再审视——从科学发展观谈耕地生产能力保护[J].中国土地,2006(3)：14-16.
[30]李子良.耕地生产能力时空变异特征及主控因素研究[D].河北农业大学,2011.
[31]许有鹏.干早区水资源承载能力综合评价研究——以新疆和田河流域为例[J].自然资源学报,1993,8(3)：229-237.
[32]傅湘,纪昌明.区域水资源承载能力综合评价——主成分分析法的应用[J].长江流域资源与环境,1995,8(2)：168-172.
[33]张丽,董增川,张伟.水资源可持续承载能力概念及研究思路探讨[J].水利学报,2003,(10)：108-112,118.
[34]王维国,岳国峰,郎景波.齐齐哈尔地区水资源可持续承载能力分析[J].节水灌溉,2012,(2)：50-56.
[35]梁荣.农业综合生产能力初探[J].中国农村经济,2005(12)：4-11.
[36]王元、刘冬梅.提高农业综合生产能力的科技对策[J].北京：北京出版社,2011.
[37]薛邦城,蒙慧.农业生产结构调整与经济增长[J].科学·经济·社会,2001,19(3)：54-58.
[38]石玉林.调整农业结构,提高农业综合生产能力[N].科技日报,2006.
[39]孟凡艳,孙芳.农业结构调整对提高农业综合生产能力的作用[J].内蒙古农业科技,2006(3)：7-8,23.
[40]《中国农业综合生产能力研究》课题组.中国农业综合生产能力研究[J].管理世界,1994,(4)：166-175.
[41]王启现,李志强,刘振虎等.“十五”全国农业科技进步贡献率测算与2020年预测[J].农业现代化研究,2006,27(6)：416-419.
[42]李林杰,王红涛.加快农业科技进步推进现代农业发展[J].农业现代化研究,2008,29(2)：163-167.
[43]《山东省农业科技进步贡献率影响因子分析及对策》课题组.山东省农业科技进步贡献率测算报告(一)[J].山东农业科学,2012,44(3)：127-132.
[44]赵士洞,王礼茂.可持续发展的概念和内涵[J].自然资源学报,1996,11(3)：288-292.
[45]朱冰,李萍.我国农业可持续发展能力初探[J].辽宁教育行政学院学报,2003,20(7)：15-16.
[46]蔡承智,陈阜,梁颖.对我国农业可持续发展途径的探讨[J].现代化农业,2002(11)：40-43.
[47]丁笑生,段红英.实现我国农业可持续发展的途径[J].安徽农业科学,2007,35(28)：9084-9085.
[48]张壬午,张彤,计文瑛等.农业可持续发展模式设计的自然资源评价方法初探[J].生态农业研究,1996,4(4)：5-8.
[49]黎东升.论农业可持续发展及其评价指标体系的建立[J].湖北农学院学报,2000,20(3)：263-265.
[50]高鹏,刘燕妮.中国农业可持续发展能力区域评价[J].中国软科学,2011(S1)：163-169.
[5 1]张苏林.全面理解农业综合生产能力的概念[OL].http://www.sn.xinhuanet.com/2006-10/ 17/content_8278227.htm,2006-10-17.
[52]马文杰,冯中朝.粮食综合生产能力与耕地流失的关系研究[J].农业现代化研究,2005,26(5)：353-357.
[53]雷锡禄.增加和管好用好农业固定资产投资,提高农业综合生产能力[J].经济研究参考,1993(1)：2-10.
[54]王福林.农业系统工程[M].北京：中国农业出版社,2006.
[55]陈衍泰,陈国宏,李美娟.综合评价方法分类及研究进展[J].管理科学学报,2004,7(2)：69-79.
[56]顾基发.评价方法综述[C].科学决策与系统工程——中国系统工程学会第六次年会论文集,1990.
[57]Dasgupta A. K., Pearce D. Cost Benefit Analysis Theory and Practice [M]. London: Macmillan,1978.
[58]中国地区经济发展课题组.中国区域经济不平衡发展战略评估与分析[J].管理世界,1993(4)：176-185.
[59]Squire L., Tak H. Economic Analysis of Projects. California:Johns Hopkins University Press. 1975.
[60]Chankong V., Haimes Y. Y. Multiple Objective Decision Making:Theory and Methodology[M]. New York:Elsevier,1983.
[61]Hwang C. L., MD Aasud A. S. Multiple Objective Decision Making, Methods and Applications[M]. Berlin; Spring Verlag Press,1979.
[62]Lichtenberg Fank R. Issues in measuring industrial R&D[J]. Research Plicy,1990,19 (1). 157-163.
[63]Charnes A., Copper W. W., Rhodes E. Measuring the efficiency of decision making units[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,1978,2:429-444.
[64]魏权龄.评价相对有效性的DEA方法[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1988.
[65]Cooper W. W., Tone K. Measures of inefficiency in data envelopment analysis and stochastic frontier estimation[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,1997 (2):72-78.
[66]王军霞,官建成.复合DEA方法在测度企业知识管理绩效中的应用[J].科学学研究,2002,84-88.
[67]李红,朱建平.综合评价方法研究进展评述[J].统计与决策,2012(9)：7-11.
[68]刘英平,林志贵,沈祖诒.有效区分决策单元的数据包络分析方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2006,26(3)：112-116.
[69]许祥鹏.基于改进的DEA模型在效率评价中的应用[J].财金研究,2011(6)： 60-62.
[70]徐小钦,黄馨,梁彭勇.基于DEA与Malmquist指数法的区域科技创新效率评价——以重庆市为例[J].2009,28(6)：974-985.
[71]岳朝龙,黄永兴,严忠.SAS系统与经济统计分析[J].北京：中国科学技术大学出版社,2003.
[72]虞晓芬,傅玳.多指标综合评价方法综述[J].统计与决策,2004(11)：119-121.
[73]王永石.区域农业综合生产能力评价研究[D].哈尔滨：东北农业大学,2008.
[74]陈宏民.系统工程导论[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2006.
[75]Saaty T. L. fundamentals of Decision Making and Priority Theory with the analytic Hierarchy Process[M]. Princeton:RWS Publications,1994.
[76]Schenkerman S. Avoiding rank reversal in AHP decision support models [J]. European Journal of Operational Research,1994,74(3):407-419.
[77]Carrettoni F., Castano S., Martella G. et al. RETISS:A real time security system for threat detection using fuzzy logic[C]. TaiPei:Proceeding of 25th IEEE International Carnahan Conference on Security Technology,1991,161-167.
[78]Chen S. J., Hwang C. L. Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making[M]. Berlin:Springer Press,,1992.
[79]陈国宏.R&D项目中止决策的Fuzzy模型识别[J].科学学研究,1986,16(1)：68-74.
[80]Dimitras A. I., Slowinski R., Susmaga R., et al. Business failure prediction using rough sets[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,1999,114(2):263-280.
[81]水本雅晴.模糊数学及其应用[M].北京：科学出版社,1988.
[82]Wang m. J. J., Snant J.Drury C. G., et al. Fuzzy Set Evaluation of Inspection Performance[J]. International Journal of Man-Machine Studies,1991,35(4):587-596.
[83]王宗军,冯珊.社会经济系统仿真方案的多层次Fuzzy综合评价[J].华中理工大学学报,1993,21(3)：12-18.
[84]林海斌.基于TOPSIS法的社会科学评价研究[D].武汉：华中科技大学,2007.
[85]高洪深.区域经济学[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2010：115-130.
[86]李红锦.区域经济增长理论述评[J].生产力研究,2007(7)：138-139.
[87]冯邦彦,李红锦.区域经济增长理论演变及其最新进展[J].经济论坛,2006(6)：12-13.
[88]刘艳清.区域经济可持续发展系统的协调度研究[J].社会科学辑刊,2000(5)：79-83.
[89]Simon H. Models of Man[M]. New York:John Wiley & Sons,1957.
[90]牛文元.中国可持续发展总论[M].北京：科学出版社,2007.
[91]Kates R.W., Clark W. C, Corell R., et al. Sustainability Science[J]. Science,2001,292 (5517):641-642.
[92]姚於康.江苏农业综合生产能力评价指标体系构建及其实际测评[J].江西农业学报.2009,21(3)：165-169.
[93]张慧明.新疆农业综合生产能力动态评价与分析[D].黑龙江：东北农业大学,2010.
[94]赵岩,闫晶怡.节水型循环经济必要性研究——以黑龙江生态省建设为例[J].环境科学与管理,2008,33(2)：159-177.
[95]刘云玲.农村土地走向集约化经营研究[J].山西农业科学,2008,36(6)：11-12.
[96]柳长顺,杜丽娟,陈献等.近20年我国有效灌溉面积动态分析[J].资源科学,2006,28(2)：8-12.
[97]吴晓涛.“农业机械化水平”与“农业装备水平”比较分析研究[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(8)：4257-4258,4306.
[98]杨建新.建设生态文明促进人与自然和谐发展[J].发展,2011(2)：96-97.