外国直接投资（FDI）对中美宏观经济的影响
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摘要
1997年亚洲金融风暴和2007年全球的金融海啸席卷全球的金融体系,打击各国的经济增长。踏入二十一世纪后,大部分国家的GDP增长都远较过去二十年低,年均增长只有大约一点多百份比,为全球经济持续发展蒙上阴影。中国和美国作为全球最大的发展国家和最大的发达国家更应坦诚合作,为全球人民缔造福祉。胡锦涛于2011年1月在美国进行的国事访问,正是反映了中美间政治经济的矛盾,同时展示了中美双方在投资、货币政策和能源方面的合作空间。
中美在这三方面的政策应如何合作才可以达至双赢?本研究以中美FDI作为中心,辅以本地投资存量,劳动人口数量,产出,石油价格,美元M2存量和美元兑人民币汇率等变量的向量误差修正模型,进行中美宏观经济的理论和实证分析,为制定中美双赢政策作出指引。
根据FDI的理论和本研究实证分析所示,中国要鼓励外来制造业投资和保持人民币相对稳定；而美国则鼓励外来服务业投资,稳定油价在较低水平,可行使宽松货币政策。美国在金融海啸后,本地投资存量的大幅反弹并不能改善就业市场,美国国会连番对人民币升值施压。但本研究证明人民币升值对美国就业市场没有帮助,反而有轻微的负向效应。研究发现美国需要鼓励服务业FDI的流入和稳定石油价格,才可稳定经济。中美应加强合作,优化自身产业结构,进行交叉投资,才可保持经济的可持续发展。中美的坦诚合作,是全球人民福祉之所在。本研究的第9章以更大的篇幅探讨中美合作的空间,除了对实证分析的结论有丰富收获外,本研究发明了SVEC模型内生变量的最佳排序法,为日后SVECM的实证分析奠定基础。
期待中美摒除己见的同时,还希望后继研究者更进一步作出努力,利用不同行业FDI和非线性模型,如STAR (Smooth Transition Auto Regression)平滑过渡自回归,对中美宏观经济进行更深入的分析。
各章节摘要：
第1章,提出问题,清楚阐述选题的原因,以及研究的意义,然后透过定立研究目标和方法,为全文研究提供一个完善的框架。
第2章,分析过去学者所做的研究,希望透过综述过去的生产理论、FDI理论以及FDI对经济影响的分析以巩固已有知识,以及找出过往研究的不足之处,为本文研究提供更清晰的研究方向。
第3章,研究FDI过去的发展进程,以及巾美近代运用FDI的情况,期望找出FDI发展的趋势,对研究FDI对经济的影响奠下基础。
第4章,研究FDI以及FDI所带来的技术进步对就业之影响及FDI对东道国各方而的宏观经济影响,例如产出、生产力、产业结构升级等等,并总结FDI对发达国家和发展巾国家的各种积极和负而影响。
第5章,介绍各种计量经济统计工具,由各种统计方法的条件和限制,并按照本研究选取的经济变量的特性来挑选出最适合的统计方法为本文作出可靠的实证研究。
第6章,利用第五章所选取的各种合适的计量经济模型于第六至第八章作出实证研究,分析FDI,以及货币供应、石油价格和美中汇率等重要经济变量对中美经济的影响。第六章首先分析中国单位劳动力产出的成长路径,并由此可比较与发造国家如美国和德国之区别。再者,利用模型可获取全要素生产率,从而为我国经济持续发展提供指引。同时研究我国就业、制造业FDI、服务业FDI和本地投资的资本存量之问的动态关系。
第7章,研究美国制造业FDI、服务业FDI和本地投资的资本强度对单位劳动力产出的影响。另外,因为美元M2对世界经济的重要性,所以于计量模型加入美元M2,借此了解美元M2与上述变量的动态关系。
第8章,研究美国制造业FDI、服务业FDI和本地投资的资本存量与GDP、就业和石油价格间的动态关系。最后加入了美中汇率,借此了解美中汇率与上述变量的动态关系。
第9章,由理论分析和实证分析的结果出发,提出中美,甚至全世界对于FDI应有的态度,并构建适当的政策将FDI的积极影响最大化,并将负面影响减到最低。同时,提出中美合作对于全球稳定的可持续发展的重要性,提出双方合作的机会。
第10章,为本研究作出总结,并提出本文的不足之处,为往后的研究作出建议和展望,期望可以作出更深入的探讨。
本文的创新之处主要体验于以下几点：第一,本文改进了MRW(1992)的收敛模型,只利用单一国家相关的时间序列作回归分析,并得到技术进步函数的值.最大的好处是可由数据中发掘不同国家的最大异质性(Maximum heterogeneity)6,并可删除MRW的大部分不必要的假设,提高模型对不同经济变量的灵活度。第二,本文虽然以FDI对东道国宏观经济的影响作为主线,但于实证研究时加入不同重要性的经济变量一并考虑,以免模型遗漏重要变量以致对FDI的研究并不真确,附带好处是识别了一些重要宏观变量的动态关系。第三,本文放弃使用普通最小二乘法回归以及向量自回归模型等传统对经济变量限制较多的计量经济模型,于是因为变量的内生性,以及协整关系,本研究决定使用向量误差修正模型及结构向量误差修正模型等等较切合经济变量特性的计量模型以提高实证研究的可靠度；并使用自举法成功得到结构向量误差修正模型中变量最佳的排序,此排序可以令即期和长期影响矩阵的t统计量最大化,使参数估值的可信度提高。第四,丰富的实证分析为中美政策制定提供证据。
Financial crisis in 1997 and financial tsunami in 2007 seriously hit the world's economy. In 21st century, the annual GDP growth rates of most countries which are around 1% have been the worst in these two decades. These hinder the sustainable development of global economy. China and the United States, being the largest developing and developed countries respectively, should work hands in hands for maximizing the welfare of the people in the world. President Hu Jin Tao's state visit in January 2011 reveals the strains between China and US on one hand and the potential cooperation in investment, monetary and energy polices on the other hand.
How to attain a winwin situation for both parties in these aspects? How to realize the substainable economic development? This research may shed much more light on this. Treating FDI as the core macroeconomic variable, attributed with other variables Domestic Investment Stock, Labor population, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), oil price, US M2 stock and USDtoRMB exchange rate, the key objective of this research is to give us much more insight both theoretically and empirically. Furthermore, it may provide us a guideline for policy makers and serve as a lighthouse which directs us where to go.
According to this research, China has got to promote inward manufacturing sector FDI and stabilize RMB's exchange rate. US should not only attract much more inward service sector FDI but also maintain oil price at affordable level and implement loosen monetary policy. After financial tsunami, domestic investment which is strongly bouncing back from the bottom does not help recovery of employment. Most important of all, USDtoRMB exchange is proven not a driving force but a hurdle for US employment situation to get back on track. Crosscountry investment, restructuring of local industries and tight collaboration can benefit the sustainable economic development for both countries, thereby finally achieving betteroff welfare of human being.
The contents of each chapter are summarized as follows:
Chapter 1:Raise the questions and explain the reasons behind this research. Research methodology will be explored and research objectives will be clearly defined. Therefore a complete framework for macroeconomic analysis will be finally established.
Chapter 2:Having reviewed the previous research literatures, we will consolidate the theories regarding production functions. FDI and its macroeconomic effects. It is used to give us a guideline sheding much more light on the research direction.
Chapter 3:Investing the recent development on FDI and FDI utilization of China and the United States, we expect to forecast FDI's future development which can be transformed to research tools for FDI's macroeconomic effects.
Chapter 4:Technology advancement resulted from imitation, spillovers and productivity convergence has impact on employment. This chapter is to dig out its macroeconomic effects, such as output, productivity and structure of industries. Finally, both its positive and negative effects will be catergorized.
Chapter 5:This chapter is to introduce statistical tools used in previous studies and this research. Based on the assumptions and restrictions of different tools, we propose the appropriate statistical tool for the research.
Chapter 6:Using the statistical tools introduced in Chapter 5, we will investigate the effect of FDI, monetary supply, oil price and ChinaUS exchange rate on the economy of China and US. In chapter 6, we will first identify the growth path of the effective output per worker of China, which will be compared against developed countries like US and Germany. Also, we can infer the total factor productivity of China, which will shed the light on the sustainable development of China. At the same time, we will study the dynamic effects between employment, manufacturing FDI, service FDI and domestic investment stocks.
Chapter 7:We will start this chapter by investigating the effect of manufacturing FDI, service FDI and domestic investment intensity on US effect output per worker. Considering the importance of US monetary supply on global economy, we will introduce US M2 into our econometric model, with an aim to reveal the dynamic relationship between M2 and the above economic variables.
Chapter 8:We will start this chapter by investigating the dynamic relationship between manufacturing FDI, service FDI, domestic investment intensity and GDP, employment and oil price. Lastly, we will introduce USChina exchange rate, with an aim to reveal the dynamic relationship between USChina exchange rate and the above economic variables.
Chapter 9:Based on the theretical and empirical results, relevant policies for China and US will be proposed for maximizing the welfare of two countries. The sincere collaboration and cooperation between these two economy giants will also be a key to open a new chapter of the sustainable economy development.
Chapter 10:This chapter serves as the conclusion for the research by claiming the restrictions and assumptions of the research, thereby exploring the space for future research.
The innovations of the research are as follows:
Firstly. it has already improved MRW (1992)'s convergence model, maximum heterogeneity will be found out with the time series of relevant variables for a single country. Irrelevant assumptions will be avoided and therefore flexibility and fesibility will be enhanced.
Secondly, using the central theme of FDI's macroeconomic effects in domestic countries, other macroeconomic variables are included for empirical study eliminating the possibility of having omitted some important variables.
Thirdly, giving up the traditional OLS regression (ordinary least square regression) and VAR model (Vector Autoregressive model), we will therein employ SVECM (Structural Vector Error Correction Model). Furthermore, this research has successfully invented a methodology for the optimal ordering of endogenous variables and thus improving the confidence levels of statistics.
Fourthly, abundant research results have provided us a guideline for policy makers of both China and the United States.
Exploiting advanced empirical models and sophisticated statistical tools (such as Smooth Transition Auto Regression), future researches should explore much more macroeconomic effects of FDI from different industries expectedly.
中美在这三方面的政策应如何合作才可以达至双赢?本研究以中美FDI作为中心,辅以本地投资存量,劳动人口数量,产出,石油价格,美元M2存量和美元兑人民币汇率等变量的向量误差修正模型,进行中美宏观经济的理论和实证分析,为制定中美双赢政策作出指引。
根据FDI的理论和本研究实证分析所示,中国要鼓励外来制造业投资和保持人民币相对稳定；而美国则鼓励外来服务业投资,稳定油价在较低水平,可行使宽松货币政策。美国在金融海啸后,本地投资存量的大幅反弹并不能改善就业市场,美国国会连番对人民币升值施压。但本研究证明人民币升值对美国就业市场没有帮助,反而有轻微的负向效应。研究发现美国需要鼓励服务业FDI的流入和稳定石油价格,才可稳定经济。中美应加强合作,优化自身产业结构,进行交叉投资,才可保持经济的可持续发展。中美的坦诚合作,是全球人民福祉之所在。本研究的第9章以更大的篇幅探讨中美合作的空间,除了对实证分析的结论有丰富收获外,本研究发明了SVEC模型内生变量的最佳排序法,为日后SVECM的实证分析奠定基础。
期待中美摒除己见的同时,还希望后继研究者更进一步作出努力,利用不同行业FDI和非线性模型,如STAR (Smooth Transition Auto Regression)平滑过渡自回归,对中美宏观经济进行更深入的分析。
各章节摘要：
第1章,提出问题,清楚阐述选题的原因,以及研究的意义,然后透过定立研究目标和方法,为全文研究提供一个完善的框架。
第2章,分析过去学者所做的研究,希望透过综述过去的生产理论、FDI理论以及FDI对经济影响的分析以巩固已有知识,以及找出过往研究的不足之处,为本文研究提供更清晰的研究方向。
第3章,研究FDI过去的发展进程,以及巾美近代运用FDI的情况,期望找出FDI发展的趋势,对研究FDI对经济的影响奠下基础。
第4章,研究FDI以及FDI所带来的技术进步对就业之影响及FDI对东道国各方而的宏观经济影响,例如产出、生产力、产业结构升级等等,并总结FDI对发达国家和发展巾国家的各种积极和负而影响。
第5章,介绍各种计量经济统计工具,由各种统计方法的条件和限制,并按照本研究选取的经济变量的特性来挑选出最适合的统计方法为本文作出可靠的实证研究。
第6章,利用第五章所选取的各种合适的计量经济模型于第六至第八章作出实证研究,分析FDI,以及货币供应、石油价格和美中汇率等重要经济变量对中美经济的影响。第六章首先分析中国单位劳动力产出的成长路径,并由此可比较与发造国家如美国和德国之区别。再者,利用模型可获取全要素生产率,从而为我国经济持续发展提供指引。同时研究我国就业、制造业FDI、服务业FDI和本地投资的资本存量之问的动态关系。
第7章,研究美国制造业FDI、服务业FDI和本地投资的资本强度对单位劳动力产出的影响。另外,因为美元M2对世界经济的重要性,所以于计量模型加入美元M2,借此了解美元M2与上述变量的动态关系。
第8章,研究美国制造业FDI、服务业FDI和本地投资的资本存量与GDP、就业和石油价格间的动态关系。最后加入了美中汇率,借此了解美中汇率与上述变量的动态关系。
第9章,由理论分析和实证分析的结果出发,提出中美,甚至全世界对于FDI应有的态度,并构建适当的政策将FDI的积极影响最大化,并将负面影响减到最低。同时,提出中美合作对于全球稳定的可持续发展的重要性,提出双方合作的机会。
第10章,为本研究作出总结,并提出本文的不足之处,为往后的研究作出建议和展望,期望可以作出更深入的探讨。
本文的创新之处主要体验于以下几点：第一,本文改进了MRW(1992)的收敛模型,只利用单一国家相关的时间序列作回归分析,并得到技术进步函数的值.最大的好处是可由数据中发掘不同国家的最大异质性(Maximum heterogeneity)6,并可删除MRW的大部分不必要的假设,提高模型对不同经济变量的灵活度。第二,本文虽然以FDI对东道国宏观经济的影响作为主线,但于实证研究时加入不同重要性的经济变量一并考虑,以免模型遗漏重要变量以致对FDI的研究并不真确,附带好处是识别了一些重要宏观变量的动态关系。第三,本文放弃使用普通最小二乘法回归以及向量自回归模型等传统对经济变量限制较多的计量经济模型,于是因为变量的内生性,以及协整关系,本研究决定使用向量误差修正模型及结构向量误差修正模型等等较切合经济变量特性的计量模型以提高实证研究的可靠度；并使用自举法成功得到结构向量误差修正模型中变量最佳的排序,此排序可以令即期和长期影响矩阵的t统计量最大化,使参数估值的可信度提高。第四,丰富的实证分析为中美政策制定提供证据。
Financial crisis in 1997 and financial tsunami in 2007 seriously hit the world's economy. In 21st century, the annual GDP growth rates of most countries which are around 1% have been the worst in these two decades. These hinder the sustainable development of global economy. China and the United States, being the largest developing and developed countries respectively, should work hands in hands for maximizing the welfare of the people in the world. President Hu Jin Tao's state visit in January 2011 reveals the strains between China and US on one hand and the potential cooperation in investment, monetary and energy polices on the other hand.
How to attain a winwin situation for both parties in these aspects? How to realize the substainable economic development? This research may shed much more light on this. Treating FDI as the core macroeconomic variable, attributed with other variables Domestic Investment Stock, Labor population, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), oil price, US M2 stock and USDtoRMB exchange rate, the key objective of this research is to give us much more insight both theoretically and empirically. Furthermore, it may provide us a guideline for policy makers and serve as a lighthouse which directs us where to go.
According to this research, China has got to promote inward manufacturing sector FDI and stabilize RMB's exchange rate. US should not only attract much more inward service sector FDI but also maintain oil price at affordable level and implement loosen monetary policy. After financial tsunami, domestic investment which is strongly bouncing back from the bottom does not help recovery of employment. Most important of all, USDtoRMB exchange is proven not a driving force but a hurdle for US employment situation to get back on track. Crosscountry investment, restructuring of local industries and tight collaboration can benefit the sustainable economic development for both countries, thereby finally achieving betteroff welfare of human being.
The contents of each chapter are summarized as follows:
Chapter 1:Raise the questions and explain the reasons behind this research. Research methodology will be explored and research objectives will be clearly defined. Therefore a complete framework for macroeconomic analysis will be finally established.
Chapter 2:Having reviewed the previous research literatures, we will consolidate the theories regarding production functions. FDI and its macroeconomic effects. It is used to give us a guideline sheding much more light on the research direction.
Chapter 3:Investing the recent development on FDI and FDI utilization of China and the United States, we expect to forecast FDI's future development which can be transformed to research tools for FDI's macroeconomic effects.
Chapter 4:Technology advancement resulted from imitation, spillovers and productivity convergence has impact on employment. This chapter is to dig out its macroeconomic effects, such as output, productivity and structure of industries. Finally, both its positive and negative effects will be catergorized.
Chapter 5:This chapter is to introduce statistical tools used in previous studies and this research. Based on the assumptions and restrictions of different tools, we propose the appropriate statistical tool for the research.
Chapter 6:Using the statistical tools introduced in Chapter 5, we will investigate the effect of FDI, monetary supply, oil price and ChinaUS exchange rate on the economy of China and US. In chapter 6, we will first identify the growth path of the effective output per worker of China, which will be compared against developed countries like US and Germany. Also, we can infer the total factor productivity of China, which will shed the light on the sustainable development of China. At the same time, we will study the dynamic effects between employment, manufacturing FDI, service FDI and domestic investment stocks.
Chapter 7:We will start this chapter by investigating the effect of manufacturing FDI, service FDI and domestic investment intensity on US effect output per worker. Considering the importance of US monetary supply on global economy, we will introduce US M2 into our econometric model, with an aim to reveal the dynamic relationship between M2 and the above economic variables.
Chapter 8:We will start this chapter by investigating the dynamic relationship between manufacturing FDI, service FDI, domestic investment intensity and GDP, employment and oil price. Lastly, we will introduce USChina exchange rate, with an aim to reveal the dynamic relationship between USChina exchange rate and the above economic variables.
Chapter 9:Based on the theretical and empirical results, relevant policies for China and US will be proposed for maximizing the welfare of two countries. The sincere collaboration and cooperation between these two economy giants will also be a key to open a new chapter of the sustainable economy development.
Chapter 10:This chapter serves as the conclusion for the research by claiming the restrictions and assumptions of the research, thereby exploring the space for future research.
The innovations of the research are as follows:
Firstly. it has already improved MRW (1992)'s convergence model, maximum heterogeneity will be found out with the time series of relevant variables for a single country. Irrelevant assumptions will be avoided and therefore flexibility and fesibility will be enhanced.
Secondly, using the central theme of FDI's macroeconomic effects in domestic countries, other macroeconomic variables are included for empirical study eliminating the possibility of having omitted some important variables.
Thirdly, giving up the traditional OLS regression (ordinary least square regression) and VAR model (Vector Autoregressive model), we will therein employ SVECM (Structural Vector Error Correction Model). Furthermore, this research has successfully invented a methodology for the optimal ordering of endogenous variables and thus improving the confidence levels of statistics.
Fourthly, abundant research results have provided us a guideline for policy makers of both China and the United States.
Exploiting advanced empirical models and sophisticated statistical tools (such as Smooth Transition Auto Regression), future researches should explore much more macroeconomic effects of FDI from different industries expectedly.
引文
1胡锦涛于18日抵达美国首都华盛顿开始这次国事访问,访问期间,两国发表了《中美联合声明》。声明重申致力于建设二十一世纪积极合作全面的中美关系,这符合两国人民和国际社会的利益。
2 FDI, Foreign Direct Investment外商直接投资,详见章节1.2.1
3美国货币供应量,美国调控宏观经济重要指标,详见章节12.2
4 SVECM,Structural Vector Error Correction Model结构向量误差修正模型,计量经济模型,详见章节5.5
5平滑过渡自回归,时间序列计量过模型,通过平滑过渡的方法提高模型参数值的弹性
6最大异质性,指模型中的误差不足常数,导致估计式的误差产生偏误
经济变量内生性指变量由其他的经济因素决定
(?)向量误差修正模型Vector Error Correction Mode]计量经济模型,详见章节5.4
9国内生产总值(Gross Domestic Product简称GDP)国内生产总值是指在一定时期内, 一个国家或地区的经济中所生产出的全部最终产品和劳务的价值,常被公认为衡量国家经济状况的最佳指标
10量化宽松是一货币政策,由中央银行通过公开市场操作以提高货币供应,2010年美国两次采用量化宽松措施以刺激本国经济
11地球村,对地球的一种比喻说法。现代科技的迅速发展,缩小了地球上的时空距离,国际交往日益频繁便利,因而整个地球就如同是茫茫宇宙中的一个小村落
12利伯维尔场为自由贸易。生产者与消费者问的自由买卖,直接交易,亦即利伯维尔场
19证券化的信货衍生工具Securitization of credit derivative instrument例如CDO, CDS等等
20滞胀全称停滞性通货膨胀(Stagflation)在经济学,特别是宏观经济学中,特指经济停滞(Stagnation)与高通货膨胀(Inflation)失业以及不景气同时存在的经济现象
36小岛清Kiyoshi Kojima,1920.5.22日本经济学家,一桥大学教授。1978年提出边际产业转移理论：对外直接投资应从该国已经处于或即将处于比较劣势的产业（称为“边际产业”）依次进行
44《中外合作经营企业法》于1988年4月13日第七届全国人民代表大会第一次会议通过,内容主要关于保障外资在华投资的权益
45国务院于于1986年10月11日发布《关于鼓励外商投资的规定》,强调改善中国的投资环境,更好地吸收外商投资
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2 FDI, Foreign Direct Investment外商直接投资,详见章节1.2.1
3美国货币供应量,美国调控宏观经济重要指标,详见章节12.2
4 SVECM,Structural Vector Error Correction Model结构向量误差修正模型,计量经济模型,详见章节5.5
5平滑过渡自回归,时间序列计量过模型,通过平滑过渡的方法提高模型参数值的弹性
6最大异质性,指模型中的误差不足常数,导致估计式的误差产生偏误
经济变量内生性指变量由其他的经济因素决定
(?)向量误差修正模型Vector Error Correction Mode]计量经济模型,详见章节5.4
9国内生产总值(Gross Domestic Product简称GDP)国内生产总值是指在一定时期内, 一个国家或地区的经济中所生产出的全部最终产品和劳务的价值,常被公认为衡量国家经济状况的最佳指标
10量化宽松是一货币政策,由中央银行通过公开市场操作以提高货币供应,2010年美国两次采用量化宽松措施以刺激本国经济
11地球村,对地球的一种比喻说法。现代科技的迅速发展,缩小了地球上的时空距离,国际交往日益频繁便利,因而整个地球就如同是茫茫宇宙中的一个小村落
12利伯维尔场为自由贸易。生产者与消费者问的自由买卖,直接交易,亦即利伯维尔场
19证券化的信货衍生工具Securitization of credit derivative instrument例如CDO, CDS等等
20滞胀全称停滞性通货膨胀(Stagflation)在经济学,特别是宏观经济学中,特指经济停滞(Stagnation)与高通货膨胀(Inflation)失业以及不景气同时存在的经济现象
36小岛清Kiyoshi Kojima,1920.5.22日本经济学家,一桥大学教授。1978年提出边际产业转移理论：对外直接投资应从该国已经处于或即将处于比较劣势的产业（称为“边际产业”）依次进行
44《中外合作经营企业法》于1988年4月13日第七届全国人民代表大会第一次会议通过,内容主要关于保障外资在华投资的权益
45国务院于于1986年10月11日发布《关于鼓励外商投资的规定》,强调改善中国的投资环境,更好地吸收外商投资
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