民用节能建筑市场增量投融资研究
摘要
民用建筑节能是建设资源节约型、环境友好型和生态文明社会的必然选择和重要内容,现阶段建设资金来源渠道单一、有效资金供给不足已成为制约我国民用节能建筑市场发展的主要障碍。本文立足于我国民用节能建筑市场资金融通难这一关键问题,以增量投融资为研究对象,通过对我国民用节能建筑市场增量投融资现状进行广泛调查研究,采用计算机模拟、统计分析、模型推理和实证研究的方法,综合运用投资经济学、公共物品理论、公共财政理论、公共选择理论、博弈论、行为经济学和复杂系统理论知识,在民用节能建筑市场增量投资产生过程、多参与主体行为建模及影响因素、增量投融资政策改善路径设计、政策对增量投融资的作用机理以及投融资模式建议等方面进行了深入研究。
针对民用节能建筑市场增量投融资缺乏规范性定义的现状,本文首先提出了概念框架,实现对民用节能建筑市场及增量投融资不同阶段特征的系统认识。通过定义民用节能建筑、民用节能建筑市场和增量投融资的基本概念,进一步界定本文的研究范围与内容;从外部性、竞争性和排他性角度分析民用节能建筑的公共物品和准公共物品属性,指出需要由政府或政府委托私人部门进行生产和提供;但由于民用节能建筑市场存在市场失灵和政府失灵,在私人生产领域需要加强政府的干预和引导作用,在政府管理领域则需要加强监督机制和管理模式的创新;由于现阶段民用节能建筑市场增量投融资处于金融成长周期的创建期和发展期的交汇阶段,需要充分发挥政府对投融资的引导作用,实行以政府引导为主市场行为为辅的投融资模式。
其次,通过建立全生命周期内民用节能建筑市场增量投资产生过程的三维模型,实现对增量投资产生内外部动力的动态分析。增量投资产生于民用节能建筑的全生命周期内,由于增加节能技术要求使各阶段内容丰富,从而实现民用节能建筑市场的闭合管理;在确定分析原则的基础上,指出现有基于技术和基于过程的增量投资产生分析方法的局限性;建立包含增量动因产生维、生命周期维和能源消耗维的三维模型,挖掘增量投资产生的内部动力;通过增量投资成本效益帕累托寻优过程分析增量投资产生的外部动力。
再次,为确定增量投融资的影响因素,构建民用节能建筑市场增量投融资多参与主体行为网络化模型。通过对市场各参与主体包括投资方、融资方和代理方行为特征和属性的界定,建立多参与主体行为的网络化概念模型;进而定义系统属性及各主体之间的作用关系及偏好,利用动态参与者网络分析平台进行演算和模拟,并选择效用、满意度和失效率三个评价指标,结合统计结果与实际调研数据识别出增量投融资的影响因素包括:经济激励政策、节能建筑公共管理方式、建筑节能服务体系和建筑节能知识扩散形式。
第四,通过建立民用节能建筑市场增量投融资过程中政府和其他投资者基于Stackelberg的两阶段主从博弈模型,证明政府参与程度和方式对市场投资效率具有重要影响作用,并对改善增量投融资影响因素的政策路径进行设计。博弈均衡结果显示政府通过制订相应政策参与增量投融资对其他投资者具有显著影响;进而利用经济数学模型分析命令控制型和经济激励型两种常用政策类型对增量投融资的影响,通过静态比较分析得出针对不同类型建筑需要制订不同的政策模式;结合我国民用节能建筑市场特点设计了经济激励型、命令控制型和市场规范型三种政策路径模式;并分析不同类型政策对增量投融资的作用机理,结果表明其不仅能对增量投融资起到较好的引导作用,还能促进市场化融资方式的形成。
最后,结合上述研究内容及成果对北京市民用节能建筑市场增量投融资进行了实证分析,通过确定北京市民用节能建筑市场增量投融资政策优化变量,重新构建政策优化后的多参与主体行为概念模型,并利用动态参与者网络分析平台进行计算模拟,统计结果显示投融资状况改善明显。根据实证分析结果与全文研究内容提出适合我国现阶段的增量投融资模式建议:市场准入与能效标识相结合的增量投融资模式、基于既有居住建筑节能改造模式的增量投融资模式和节能监管框架下的增量投融资模式。
通过对民用节能建筑市场增量投融资的研究,可有效解决我国民用节能建筑市场发展初期的资金“瓶颈”问题,培育节能建筑市场的供给主体和需求主体,调整建筑业的能源使用结构,为政府制订民用节能建筑领域的投融资政策提供相应的建议。伴随我国民用节能建筑市场的发展与成熟,本文的研究成果将具有广阔的应用前景。
Civil building energy efficiency is inevitable selection and important contents of establishing resource-preserving, environment-friendly and ecological civilization society. In this stage, development barriers of civil building energy efficient market (CBEEM) in China mainly centralize on unitary construction capital source channel and deficient effective capital supply. To the key problems of capital financing in CBEEM, the study takes the incremental investment and financing (IIF) as research object. Through extensive market investigations to the condition of IIF for CBEEM, adopt the methodology of computer simulation, statistical analysis, model consequence and demonstration research, synthetically utilize the knowledge of investment economy, public goods theory, public financing theory, public choice theory, game theory, behavior economy and complex system theory. Deeply research on emerging process and drive of incremental investment (II), establishing multi-participant behavior model and influence factor analysis, policy improvement path, inducting mechanism of policy to IIF and IIF mode selection.
According to absence of canonical definition of CBEEM, the research firstly put forward to the concept scheme for CBEEM so as to systematically recognize the different stage characteristics of IIF for CBEEM. Through defining civil energy efficient building (CEEB), CBEEM and IIF, furtherly limit research scope and content. Analyze the public goods and quasi-public goods characteristics of CEEB from the view of externality, competitiveness and exclusiveness, prove that it can be produced and supplied by government or government consigning private department. Because of market failure and government failure in CBEEM, it needs strengthen government’s inducting and intervening function in the field of private production and innovate government supervising mechanism and management mode in the field of government management. Because IIF of CBEEM is located in the intersection stage of start-up and grow-up, it also needs play the inducting role of government and executing the financing mode of government inducting as priority and market behavior as supplement.
Secondly, complete the dynamic analysis on interior and exterior drive on II emerging through establishing three-dimension model for emerging process of II for CBEEM in whole life cycle. II is emerged from the whole life cycle of CEEB. For the requirement of adding energy efficient technique, enrich the different stage contents and form the close management of CBEEM. On the basis of analyzing limitations of II emerging method of existing methods based on process and technique, confirm the analysis principle and method. Establish three-dimension model including incremental reason emerging dimension, life cycle dimension and energy consumption dimension, fully dig the interior drive of IIF emerging. Through Pareto optimization process of II benefit-cost, analyze the exterior drive of II emerging.
Thirdly, in order to confirm on influence factors of IIF, established behavior network model of multi-participants for CBEEM. Through defining the behavior characteristics and attributes of participants including investment participant, financing participant and agent participant, establish network behavior concept model of multi-participants in market. Respectively define the system attribute, influence relationship and preference of different agents. Take calculations and simulation through Dynamic Actor Network Analysis (DANA) and select three appraisal indexes including market utility, satisfaction degree and frustration degree. Combining with statistic result and practical investigation data, identify the influence factors on IIF. They include economic incentive policy, energy efficient building public management mode, building energy efficient (BEE) service system and BEE knowledge diffusion form.
Fourthly, established two-stage leader-followers game model based on Stackelberg with government and other investors during the course of IIF for CBEEM, proved that government’s participant degree and mode have important influence on market investment efficiency and proposed policy path improving IIF influence factors. Game equilibrium results show that the policy established by government has obvious influence on other investors. Furtherly, analyze the economic influence on IIF of Command and Control (CAC) and Market-based Instruments (MBI). The results show that it can be concluded that different buildings need to establish different policy mode after static comparison. According to the characteristics of CBEEM, propose three types of policy path including CAC, MBI and market standardization policy type (MSP) based on CBEEM. Analyzed the influence mechanism on IIF. The results show that it not only inducting IIF but also propelling to form market financing mode.
Lastly, according to the following research contents accomplished the empirical analysis of IIF for CBEEM in Beijing. Through confirming on optimization policy variable, reconstruct participant behavior concept model after policy improvement, calculate and simulate utilizing DANA. The statistic result shows that the investment and financing condition is obviously improved. On the basis of empirical analysis result and research contents of whole study, propose three IIF modes suit for this stage, which include IIF mode combining market admittance and energy efficient label, IIF mode based on existing residential building energy efficient retrofit mode and IIF mode under energy efficient supervision framework.
Through the research on IIF for CBEEM, it can effectively settle the capital bottleneck problem in the grow-up stage of CBEEM, cultivate with the supply and demand agents, propel the progress of energy efficient technique, promote the development of energy efficient building engineering practice and adjust the structure of energy utilization in construction industry. At the same time, it can offer some suggestions on government establishing investment and financing policy in the field of energy efficient building. With the development of CBEEM, the research fruits will have the wide application foreground.
针对民用节能建筑市场增量投融资缺乏规范性定义的现状,本文首先提出了概念框架,实现对民用节能建筑市场及增量投融资不同阶段特征的系统认识。通过定义民用节能建筑、民用节能建筑市场和增量投融资的基本概念,进一步界定本文的研究范围与内容;从外部性、竞争性和排他性角度分析民用节能建筑的公共物品和准公共物品属性,指出需要由政府或政府委托私人部门进行生产和提供;但由于民用节能建筑市场存在市场失灵和政府失灵,在私人生产领域需要加强政府的干预和引导作用,在政府管理领域则需要加强监督机制和管理模式的创新;由于现阶段民用节能建筑市场增量投融资处于金融成长周期的创建期和发展期的交汇阶段,需要充分发挥政府对投融资的引导作用,实行以政府引导为主市场行为为辅的投融资模式。
其次,通过建立全生命周期内民用节能建筑市场增量投资产生过程的三维模型,实现对增量投资产生内外部动力的动态分析。增量投资产生于民用节能建筑的全生命周期内,由于增加节能技术要求使各阶段内容丰富,从而实现民用节能建筑市场的闭合管理;在确定分析原则的基础上,指出现有基于技术和基于过程的增量投资产生分析方法的局限性;建立包含增量动因产生维、生命周期维和能源消耗维的三维模型,挖掘增量投资产生的内部动力;通过增量投资成本效益帕累托寻优过程分析增量投资产生的外部动力。
再次,为确定增量投融资的影响因素,构建民用节能建筑市场增量投融资多参与主体行为网络化模型。通过对市场各参与主体包括投资方、融资方和代理方行为特征和属性的界定,建立多参与主体行为的网络化概念模型;进而定义系统属性及各主体之间的作用关系及偏好,利用动态参与者网络分析平台进行演算和模拟,并选择效用、满意度和失效率三个评价指标,结合统计结果与实际调研数据识别出增量投融资的影响因素包括:经济激励政策、节能建筑公共管理方式、建筑节能服务体系和建筑节能知识扩散形式。
第四,通过建立民用节能建筑市场增量投融资过程中政府和其他投资者基于Stackelberg的两阶段主从博弈模型,证明政府参与程度和方式对市场投资效率具有重要影响作用,并对改善增量投融资影响因素的政策路径进行设计。博弈均衡结果显示政府通过制订相应政策参与增量投融资对其他投资者具有显著影响;进而利用经济数学模型分析命令控制型和经济激励型两种常用政策类型对增量投融资的影响,通过静态比较分析得出针对不同类型建筑需要制订不同的政策模式;结合我国民用节能建筑市场特点设计了经济激励型、命令控制型和市场规范型三种政策路径模式;并分析不同类型政策对增量投融资的作用机理,结果表明其不仅能对增量投融资起到较好的引导作用,还能促进市场化融资方式的形成。
最后,结合上述研究内容及成果对北京市民用节能建筑市场增量投融资进行了实证分析,通过确定北京市民用节能建筑市场增量投融资政策优化变量,重新构建政策优化后的多参与主体行为概念模型,并利用动态参与者网络分析平台进行计算模拟,统计结果显示投融资状况改善明显。根据实证分析结果与全文研究内容提出适合我国现阶段的增量投融资模式建议:市场准入与能效标识相结合的增量投融资模式、基于既有居住建筑节能改造模式的增量投融资模式和节能监管框架下的增量投融资模式。
通过对民用节能建筑市场增量投融资的研究,可有效解决我国民用节能建筑市场发展初期的资金“瓶颈”问题,培育节能建筑市场的供给主体和需求主体,调整建筑业的能源使用结构,为政府制订民用节能建筑领域的投融资政策提供相应的建议。伴随我国民用节能建筑市场的发展与成熟,本文的研究成果将具有广阔的应用前景。
Civil building energy efficiency is inevitable selection and important contents of establishing resource-preserving, environment-friendly and ecological civilization society. In this stage, development barriers of civil building energy efficient market (CBEEM) in China mainly centralize on unitary construction capital source channel and deficient effective capital supply. To the key problems of capital financing in CBEEM, the study takes the incremental investment and financing (IIF) as research object. Through extensive market investigations to the condition of IIF for CBEEM, adopt the methodology of computer simulation, statistical analysis, model consequence and demonstration research, synthetically utilize the knowledge of investment economy, public goods theory, public financing theory, public choice theory, game theory, behavior economy and complex system theory. Deeply research on emerging process and drive of incremental investment (II), establishing multi-participant behavior model and influence factor analysis, policy improvement path, inducting mechanism of policy to IIF and IIF mode selection.
According to absence of canonical definition of CBEEM, the research firstly put forward to the concept scheme for CBEEM so as to systematically recognize the different stage characteristics of IIF for CBEEM. Through defining civil energy efficient building (CEEB), CBEEM and IIF, furtherly limit research scope and content. Analyze the public goods and quasi-public goods characteristics of CEEB from the view of externality, competitiveness and exclusiveness, prove that it can be produced and supplied by government or government consigning private department. Because of market failure and government failure in CBEEM, it needs strengthen government’s inducting and intervening function in the field of private production and innovate government supervising mechanism and management mode in the field of government management. Because IIF of CBEEM is located in the intersection stage of start-up and grow-up, it also needs play the inducting role of government and executing the financing mode of government inducting as priority and market behavior as supplement.
Secondly, complete the dynamic analysis on interior and exterior drive on II emerging through establishing three-dimension model for emerging process of II for CBEEM in whole life cycle. II is emerged from the whole life cycle of CEEB. For the requirement of adding energy efficient technique, enrich the different stage contents and form the close management of CBEEM. On the basis of analyzing limitations of II emerging method of existing methods based on process and technique, confirm the analysis principle and method. Establish three-dimension model including incremental reason emerging dimension, life cycle dimension and energy consumption dimension, fully dig the interior drive of IIF emerging. Through Pareto optimization process of II benefit-cost, analyze the exterior drive of II emerging.
Thirdly, in order to confirm on influence factors of IIF, established behavior network model of multi-participants for CBEEM. Through defining the behavior characteristics and attributes of participants including investment participant, financing participant and agent participant, establish network behavior concept model of multi-participants in market. Respectively define the system attribute, influence relationship and preference of different agents. Take calculations and simulation through Dynamic Actor Network Analysis (DANA) and select three appraisal indexes including market utility, satisfaction degree and frustration degree. Combining with statistic result and practical investigation data, identify the influence factors on IIF. They include economic incentive policy, energy efficient building public management mode, building energy efficient (BEE) service system and BEE knowledge diffusion form.
Fourthly, established two-stage leader-followers game model based on Stackelberg with government and other investors during the course of IIF for CBEEM, proved that government’s participant degree and mode have important influence on market investment efficiency and proposed policy path improving IIF influence factors. Game equilibrium results show that the policy established by government has obvious influence on other investors. Furtherly, analyze the economic influence on IIF of Command and Control (CAC) and Market-based Instruments (MBI). The results show that it can be concluded that different buildings need to establish different policy mode after static comparison. According to the characteristics of CBEEM, propose three types of policy path including CAC, MBI and market standardization policy type (MSP) based on CBEEM. Analyzed the influence mechanism on IIF. The results show that it not only inducting IIF but also propelling to form market financing mode.
Lastly, according to the following research contents accomplished the empirical analysis of IIF for CBEEM in Beijing. Through confirming on optimization policy variable, reconstruct participant behavior concept model after policy improvement, calculate and simulate utilizing DANA. The statistic result shows that the investment and financing condition is obviously improved. On the basis of empirical analysis result and research contents of whole study, propose three IIF modes suit for this stage, which include IIF mode combining market admittance and energy efficient label, IIF mode based on existing residential building energy efficient retrofit mode and IIF mode under energy efficient supervision framework.
Through the research on IIF for CBEEM, it can effectively settle the capital bottleneck problem in the grow-up stage of CBEEM, cultivate with the supply and demand agents, propel the progress of energy efficient technique, promote the development of energy efficient building engineering practice and adjust the structure of energy utilization in construction industry. At the same time, it can offer some suggestions on government establishing investment and financing policy in the field of energy efficient building. With the development of CBEEM, the research fruits will have the wide application foreground.
引文
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