煤矿企业安全投入与决策研究
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摘要
安全生产是一个全民关注的话题,尤其是煤矿的安全。现阶段我国煤矿安全生产形势依然严峻,煤矿事故总量居高不下,重特大事故时有发生。安全投入虽然有所加大但事故发生概率却仍高居不下,究其根本原因应是安全投入缺乏科学合理的分配,安全投入决策不够科学,目前我国对安全投入决策理论的研究还处于起步阶段。本文在分析研究安全投入理论的基础上,从预测事故发生概率、安全投入与事故损失之间的关系方面入手,对安全投入决策进行研究。主要的研究内容和成果如下：
(1)本论文对煤矿安全投入基本理论进行了研究总结,对一些概念给予新的理解和表达。
(2)利用灰色系统理论建立煤矿职工负伤率GM(1,1)预测模型。为了提高预测结果的精度和准确性,引进马尔可夫理论,对GM(1,1)预测模型进行补充完善,以便取得更精确的效果。
(3)运用灰色关联分析方法找出各个投入方向对事故损失影响程度的大小,根据此影响程度可使煤矿企业的安全生产管理部门能有针对性的采取安全措施,减少事故的发生,为安全投入决策提供依据。
(4)本论文在MATLAB程序设计工具下,编制事故伤亡预测及灰色关联分析计算模型,并通过实例进行验证,为矿山以后的安全生产管理工作提供了一个有效的信息平台。
Safety production is a topic of universal concern, especially in the coal mine. At this stage. China's safety production situation of coal mine is still grim, accidents of coal mine is always high, serious accidents occurred occasionally. Even though safety input has increased, the probability of accidents is still high, the fundamental reason is that the lack of scientific and rational distribution and not enough decision-making of safety input, at present, study of safety input decision-making theory in our country is still in its infancy. This paper based on analysis of safety input theory, study the safety input decision-making by the relationship among predicted accident probability, safety input and accident loss. The main contents and results are as follows:
(1) This thesis concluded basic theory of safety input in coal mines, give some concept a new understanding and expression.
(2) Establish the GM (1,1) prediction model of mine staff wounded using gray system theory. In order to improve the precision and accuracy of the predictions, introduces the theory of Markov to correct processing the predicted results of GM (1,1) model, so as to obtain more accurate results.
(3) In accordance with the actual production of a mine, elects factors affecting accident casualty rate, analyzis its influencing factors by using gray correlation analysis method, and come to the order of influence factors, to make the mine safe production management department can take stargeted afety measures, reduce accidents, provide the basis for decision-making of safety investment.
(4) This thesis is based on MATLAB programming tools, prepared computational model of the accident casualties forecasting and gray relational analysis, and validated by examples, to provide an effective information for subsequent management work in mines.
(1)本论文对煤矿安全投入基本理论进行了研究总结,对一些概念给予新的理解和表达。
(2)利用灰色系统理论建立煤矿职工负伤率GM(1,1)预测模型。为了提高预测结果的精度和准确性,引进马尔可夫理论,对GM(1,1)预测模型进行补充完善,以便取得更精确的效果。
(3)运用灰色关联分析方法找出各个投入方向对事故损失影响程度的大小,根据此影响程度可使煤矿企业的安全生产管理部门能有针对性的采取安全措施,减少事故的发生,为安全投入决策提供依据。
(4)本论文在MATLAB程序设计工具下,编制事故伤亡预测及灰色关联分析计算模型,并通过实例进行验证,为矿山以后的安全生产管理工作提供了一个有效的信息平台。
Safety production is a topic of universal concern, especially in the coal mine. At this stage. China's safety production situation of coal mine is still grim, accidents of coal mine is always high, serious accidents occurred occasionally. Even though safety input has increased, the probability of accidents is still high, the fundamental reason is that the lack of scientific and rational distribution and not enough decision-making of safety input, at present, study of safety input decision-making theory in our country is still in its infancy. This paper based on analysis of safety input theory, study the safety input decision-making by the relationship among predicted accident probability, safety input and accident loss. The main contents and results are as follows:
(1) This thesis concluded basic theory of safety input in coal mines, give some concept a new understanding and expression.
(2) Establish the GM (1,1) prediction model of mine staff wounded using gray system theory. In order to improve the precision and accuracy of the predictions, introduces the theory of Markov to correct processing the predicted results of GM (1,1) model, so as to obtain more accurate results.
(3) In accordance with the actual production of a mine, elects factors affecting accident casualty rate, analyzis its influencing factors by using gray correlation analysis method, and come to the order of influence factors, to make the mine safe production management department can take stargeted afety measures, reduce accidents, provide the basis for decision-making of safety investment.
(4) This thesis is based on MATLAB programming tools, prepared computational model of the accident casualties forecasting and gray relational analysis, and validated by examples, to provide an effective information for subsequent management work in mines.
引文
[1]张雷.矿产资源开发与国家工业化[M].北京：商务印书馆,2004.4.
[2]张幼蒂,李新春,韩万林.综合集成化人工智能技术及其矿业应用[M].徐州：中国矿业大学出社,2004.8.
[3]范维唐.我国安全生产形势、差距与对策[M].北京：煤炭工业出版社,2003.6.
[4]国家煤矿安全监察局等.全国煤矿安全状况调查与安全规划研究报告[R].2001.12.
[5]煤矿安全生产形势与规划目标http://www.coal.com.cn/CoalN ews/ArticleDisplysis_129302.html.
[6]李毅中.李毅中在首届“中国企业安全生产高层论坛”上的讲话,http://www.chinasafety.gov.en/zhengwugongkai/2005-07/15/content_116182.htm.
[7]库尔曼.安全科学导论[M].武汉：中国地质大学出版社,1987.
[8]Hale, D.Walker.Marketing health and safety management expertise to small enterprises[J], Safety Science2000(36):95-110.
[9]Peter J.M.Sonnemans, Patrick M.W.Korvers, Aarnout C.Brombacher. How safety-investment Increase Performance:a Practical Case[J],2002(37):123-136.
[10]Simon. Optimal vs. tranditional securities under moral hazard[J]. Journal of Financial and quantitative Analysis,1999,34(2):161-189.
[11]Jon G. Anderson, Jeffrey D.E. Jeffries, Todd P.Mairs. et al.Optimized work control process improve safety and reliability in a risk-based and deregulated environment [J], Reliability Engineering and Safety 1999(63):225-229.
[12]Scott Farrow, Hiroshi Hayakawa. Investing in safety an analytical precautionary principle[J]. Journal of Safety Research.2002(33):165-174.
[13]March J. Nelson, Who is responsible for Safety [J]. Professional Safety,2000(46):35-41.
[14]Hyungjoon Yoon, Hanyong Lee, I Moon. Quantitative business decision-making for the investment of protecting safety accidents in chemical plants [J], Computers and Chemical Engineering,2000(34):1037-1041.
[15]C.Starr.Benefit-cost studies in social-technical systems[M]. Perspectives on Benefit-Risk Decision Making. Washington:National Academy of Engineering.2000(24):1037-1041.
[16]Philippe.F.Riel, Daniel.Imbreau. Justifying Investments in Industrial Ergonomics [J]. International Journal of Industrial ergonomics,1996(18):349-361.
[17]Hans J.Pasman. Risk Informed Resource Allocation Police:Safe and Save costs[J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials,2000(71):375-394.
[18]K.S.Son, R.E.Melchers, W.M.Kal. An Analysis of Safety Control Effectiveness[J]. Reliability Engineering and Safety,2000(68):187-194.
[19]J.Gausch, E.S.Geller.Critical Success Factors For Behavior-Based Safety:A Study of Twenty Industry-wide Applications [J], Journal of Safety Research,1999(30):76-93.
[20]Neville Stanton, Chris Baber. A systems approch to human error identifyication[J], Safety and Science,1996(1-3):215-228.
[21]Young-Do Jo, Kyo-Shik Park.Dynamic management of human error to reduce total risk[J], Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2003(16):313-321.
[22][美]斯坦.戴维斯,克里斯托弗.麦耶,张帆等译.模糊经济[M].天津人民出版社,1999.
[23]Kenneth.W, W.Fine.Risk,Economy and Safety, Failure Minimization and Analysis[M], A.ABALKEMA.ROTTERDAMBROOK FIELD.1998.
[24]刘振翼,冯长根.安全投入与安全水平的关系[J]. 中国矿业大学学报,2003,32(4)：448-451.
[25]王晓梅.煤炭企业的安全经济效益分析[J].煤炭学报,2007,8：893-896.
[26]田水承,杨波,李红霞.煤矿企业的安全投入与产出[J].煤矿安全,2007,11：77-79.
[27]刘松涛.企业安全生产的经济效益分析及预测方法研究[D].山东科技大学,2004.5.
[28]王书明,王恩元.煤矿安全投入结构分析[J].中国矿业,2008,17(12)：17-20.
[29]姜福川.矿山企业安全投资决策优化理论研究[D].中国矿业大学,2006.10.
[30]姜福川,张成良.矿山安全投资与事故控制耦合理论研究[J].采矿技术,2008,8(6)：90-92.
[31]王书明.煤矿安全投入系统分析及其决策的研究[D].中国矿业大学,2008.5.
[32]王伯恭.中国百科大辞典[M].北京：中国大百科全书出版社,2000.12.
[33]罗竹风.汉语大词典[M].上海：汉语大词典出版社,1993.11.
[34]罗云等.安全经济学[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2004.4.
[35]张景林,王桂吉.安全的自然属性和社会属性[J].华北工学院学报.2001,22(4)：273-276.
[36]刘潜.一个发展中的交叉科学领域——安全科学[J].中国安全科学学报,1991,1(2)：57-65.
[37]何学秋.安全工程学[M].徐州：中国矿业大学出版社,2003.6.
[38]巢峰.辞海[M].上海：上海辞书出版社,2002.5.
[39]珍妮特·洛尔.本杰明·格雷厄姆论价值投资[M].海口：海南出版社,1999(2)
[40]梅强.安全投资方向决策的研究[J].中国安全科学学报,1999,9(9)：42-47.
[41]姚庆国.论安全成本与安全成本核算[J].山东社会科学,2001(1)：87-89.
[42]周三多.管理学——原理与方法[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,1997(4)
[43]何学秋.中国煤矿灾害防治理论与技术[M].徐州：中国矿业大学出版社,2006.6.
[44]杨乃定.管理决策新思维[M].西安：西北工业大学出版社,
[45]苏伟伦.企业决策经济实务[M].北京：中国纺织出版社,2002(12)
[46]陈建勋,傅升.探悉德尔菲法的知识自增值机制及其改进[J].软科学,2005(1)：9-10.
[47]芮明杰.管理学：现代的观点[M].上海：上海人民出版社,1999.9
[48]薛亮.妙用头脑风暴法[J].企业研究,2005(5)：61-62
[49]唐云锦.管理学导论[M].成都：西南交通大学出版社,2006.1.
[50]郑小平,刘梦婷,李伟.事故预测方法研究评述[J].北京化工大学安全管理研究所,1992,17(2)：223-229.
[51]任朝佐.灰色系统基本理论与方法[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1989.
[52]张启明.灰色马尔可夫预测模型及在地震预报中的应用[J].地震学刊,1994,7(1)：27-29.
[53]李相勇,张南.蒋葛夫.道路交通事故灰色马尔可夫预测模型[J].公路交通科技,2003,20(4)：98-100.
[54]吕品,周心劝.灰色马尔可夫模型在煤矿安全事故预测中的应用[J].安徽理工大学学报(自然科学版),26(1).
[55]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕等.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京：科学出版社,2004.
[56]张威MATLAB基础与编程入门[M].西安：西安电子科技大学出版社,2004.
[2]张幼蒂,李新春,韩万林.综合集成化人工智能技术及其矿业应用[M].徐州：中国矿业大学出社,2004.8.
[3]范维唐.我国安全生产形势、差距与对策[M].北京：煤炭工业出版社,2003.6.
[4]国家煤矿安全监察局等.全国煤矿安全状况调查与安全规划研究报告[R].2001.12.
[5]煤矿安全生产形势与规划目标http://www.coal.com.cn/CoalN ews/ArticleDisplysis_129302.html.
[6]李毅中.李毅中在首届“中国企业安全生产高层论坛”上的讲话,http://www.chinasafety.gov.en/zhengwugongkai/2005-07/15/content_116182.htm.
[7]库尔曼.安全科学导论[M].武汉：中国地质大学出版社,1987.
[8]Hale, D.Walker.Marketing health and safety management expertise to small enterprises[J], Safety Science2000(36):95-110.
[9]Peter J.M.Sonnemans, Patrick M.W.Korvers, Aarnout C.Brombacher. How safety-investment Increase Performance:a Practical Case[J],2002(37):123-136.
[10]Simon. Optimal vs. tranditional securities under moral hazard[J]. Journal of Financial and quantitative Analysis,1999,34(2):161-189.
[11]Jon G. Anderson, Jeffrey D.E. Jeffries, Todd P.Mairs. et al.Optimized work control process improve safety and reliability in a risk-based and deregulated environment [J], Reliability Engineering and Safety 1999(63):225-229.
[12]Scott Farrow, Hiroshi Hayakawa. Investing in safety an analytical precautionary principle[J]. Journal of Safety Research.2002(33):165-174.
[13]March J. Nelson, Who is responsible for Safety [J]. Professional Safety,2000(46):35-41.
[14]Hyungjoon Yoon, Hanyong Lee, I Moon. Quantitative business decision-making for the investment of protecting safety accidents in chemical plants [J], Computers and Chemical Engineering,2000(34):1037-1041.
[15]C.Starr.Benefit-cost studies in social-technical systems[M]. Perspectives on Benefit-Risk Decision Making. Washington:National Academy of Engineering.2000(24):1037-1041.
[16]Philippe.F.Riel, Daniel.Imbreau. Justifying Investments in Industrial Ergonomics [J]. International Journal of Industrial ergonomics,1996(18):349-361.
[17]Hans J.Pasman. Risk Informed Resource Allocation Police:Safe and Save costs[J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials,2000(71):375-394.
[18]K.S.Son, R.E.Melchers, W.M.Kal. An Analysis of Safety Control Effectiveness[J]. Reliability Engineering and Safety,2000(68):187-194.
[19]J.Gausch, E.S.Geller.Critical Success Factors For Behavior-Based Safety:A Study of Twenty Industry-wide Applications [J], Journal of Safety Research,1999(30):76-93.
[20]Neville Stanton, Chris Baber. A systems approch to human error identifyication[J], Safety and Science,1996(1-3):215-228.
[21]Young-Do Jo, Kyo-Shik Park.Dynamic management of human error to reduce total risk[J], Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2003(16):313-321.
[22][美]斯坦.戴维斯,克里斯托弗.麦耶,张帆等译.模糊经济[M].天津人民出版社,1999.
[23]Kenneth.W, W.Fine.Risk,Economy and Safety, Failure Minimization and Analysis[M], A.ABALKEMA.ROTTERDAMBROOK FIELD.1998.
[24]刘振翼,冯长根.安全投入与安全水平的关系[J]. 中国矿业大学学报,2003,32(4)：448-451.
[25]王晓梅.煤炭企业的安全经济效益分析[J].煤炭学报,2007,8：893-896.
[26]田水承,杨波,李红霞.煤矿企业的安全投入与产出[J].煤矿安全,2007,11：77-79.
[27]刘松涛.企业安全生产的经济效益分析及预测方法研究[D].山东科技大学,2004.5.
[28]王书明,王恩元.煤矿安全投入结构分析[J].中国矿业,2008,17(12)：17-20.
[29]姜福川.矿山企业安全投资决策优化理论研究[D].中国矿业大学,2006.10.
[30]姜福川,张成良.矿山安全投资与事故控制耦合理论研究[J].采矿技术,2008,8(6)：90-92.
[31]王书明.煤矿安全投入系统分析及其决策的研究[D].中国矿业大学,2008.5.
[32]王伯恭.中国百科大辞典[M].北京：中国大百科全书出版社,2000.12.
[33]罗竹风.汉语大词典[M].上海：汉语大词典出版社,1993.11.
[34]罗云等.安全经济学[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2004.4.
[35]张景林,王桂吉.安全的自然属性和社会属性[J].华北工学院学报.2001,22(4)：273-276.
[36]刘潜.一个发展中的交叉科学领域——安全科学[J].中国安全科学学报,1991,1(2)：57-65.
[37]何学秋.安全工程学[M].徐州：中国矿业大学出版社,2003.6.
[38]巢峰.辞海[M].上海：上海辞书出版社,2002.5.
[39]珍妮特·洛尔.本杰明·格雷厄姆论价值投资[M].海口：海南出版社,1999(2)
[40]梅强.安全投资方向决策的研究[J].中国安全科学学报,1999,9(9)：42-47.
[41]姚庆国.论安全成本与安全成本核算[J].山东社会科学,2001(1)：87-89.
[42]周三多.管理学——原理与方法[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,1997(4)
[43]何学秋.中国煤矿灾害防治理论与技术[M].徐州：中国矿业大学出版社,2006.6.
[44]杨乃定.管理决策新思维[M].西安：西北工业大学出版社,
[45]苏伟伦.企业决策经济实务[M].北京：中国纺织出版社,2002(12)
[46]陈建勋,傅升.探悉德尔菲法的知识自增值机制及其改进[J].软科学,2005(1)：9-10.
[47]芮明杰.管理学：现代的观点[M].上海：上海人民出版社,1999.9
[48]薛亮.妙用头脑风暴法[J].企业研究,2005(5)：61-62
[49]唐云锦.管理学导论[M].成都：西南交通大学出版社,2006.1.
[50]郑小平,刘梦婷,李伟.事故预测方法研究评述[J].北京化工大学安全管理研究所,1992,17(2)：223-229.
[51]任朝佐.灰色系统基本理论与方法[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1989.
[52]张启明.灰色马尔可夫预测模型及在地震预报中的应用[J].地震学刊,1994,7(1)：27-29.
[53]李相勇,张南.蒋葛夫.道路交通事故灰色马尔可夫预测模型[J].公路交通科技,2003,20(4)：98-100.
[54]吕品,周心劝.灰色马尔可夫模型在煤矿安全事故预测中的应用[J].安徽理工大学学报(自然科学版),26(1).
[55]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕等.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京：科学出版社,2004.
[56]张威MATLAB基础与编程入门[M].西安：西安电子科技大学出版社,2004.