基于灰关联及其预测的煤矿安全管理及事故预警方法
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摘要
我国是产煤大国,目前煤炭在我国的一次能源消费中约占70%左右。然而我国煤矿死亡人数每年超过6000人,是世界上煤与瓦斯事故最严重的国家之一。煤矿安全问题已严重制约了我国煤炭工业的发展,成为煤炭工业发展的“瓶颈”[1]。如何实现煤矿安全管理是煤炭企业健康、快速、可持续发展的关键问题之一。迅速而准确地查出故障因素和高效管理对保证企业正常生产,维持和提高企业综合竞争力、保护职工生命安全、保障社会安定繁荣具有着重要的意义。本文结合平煤一矿安全管理的现状,应用灰色系统理论相关知识,建立了该煤矿企业安全事故分析和预测模型,分析了事故发生的各个影响因素关联度,预测了煤矿死亡人数等参数,推出了关键煤矿事故关键因素,进而提出了一种基于企业文化的安全管理创新模式,并对基于知识管理的煤矿安全事故预警方法进行了探讨和研究,为煤矿企业生产安全管理提供了一种科学有效的理论依据[2-6]。
在分析国内外煤矿安全管理研究现状的基础上,对灰色系统理论和煤矿安全事故的结合点进行了研究。结合平煤一矿安全生产统计数据,采用灰关联对影响矿山安全生产的主要致因因素进行了关联程度计算,然后根据企业实际情况进行分析,对安全管理中出现的不确定性风险因素进行客观的量化,预测煤矿安全管理中的薄弱环节,在事前通过对影响安全的因素进行预测,可以变被动、滞后、辅助的安全管理模式为主动、超前、本质的安全管理模式,达到有效的控制煤矿安全事故的效果。
在以上模型研究的基础上,首先提出了一种“人本管理”的企业安全文化管理模式;安全文化管理模式是依靠企业安全文化的凝聚力、影响力和渗透力,运用系统管理思想实现对煤矿企业的安全管理;其次构建了一种基于知识管理的煤矿安全事故预警方法,并对安全预警方法的评价指标体系、基于模糊综合评估煤矿安全预警模型、基于知识管理的煤矿安全管理预警方法运行模式,以及基于学习型专家支持数据库等部分关键技术进行了研究;最后,应用于该企业安全管理实践中,取得了较好的应用效果。
Along with the development of the socialist market economy and the influence of global energy crisis, the coal becomes more and more important in energy role. It is one of the key problems of the coal mine’s safety management to realize healthy、high and continuous development. It has an important meaning of the coal mine enterprise implement effective precaution and timely management of safety accidents. And it is also meaningful for preceding the enterprise’s normal production and improving the enterprise’s comprehensive competition. According to Pingdingshan No. 1 Mine’s current safety management, a grey system theory is used to establish the enterprise’s safety accidents analysis and prediction model. Through the model, the each effective factors correlation grade is analyzed. And the coal mine’s safety accidents prediction methods are discussed and researched. This provides a scientific and effective theory foundation for coal mine enterprise’s production safety management.
The main content is just as below:
(1) The grey system theory and coal mine safety accidents’combining spot is researched based on the introduction of grey system theory.
(2) The main cause factors which can influence the coal mine safety production is calculated in associated grade by grey correlation. And it is based on the safety production data statistics of the Pingdingshan No. 1 Mine. The enterprise’actual situation is analyzed too. The grey model is applied in coal mine safety accidents and modified by residual correction methods. It can improve the accuracy and also provide data support and theory foundation for enterprise’s scientific safety management.
(3) Through the analysis of grey model calculation results of the Pingdingshan No. 1 Mine and research of safety accidents characters, the safety cultural management model which also called“Humanistic management”is proposed in enterprise safety management model. The safety cultural management model is depending on enterprise’s cohesion, influence and penetration. It can propel safety behavior become the workers’habit and use system safety management theory manage the objects.
(4) A kind of knowledge management in coal mine safety accidents prediction method is proposed. The safety prediction methods’evaluation index system and the coal mine safety prediction model based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is researched. And the coal mine production safety management prediction operation model based on knowledge management and specialist supporting database base on studied model is researched too. This provides a new effective solution for disasters defense and reducing.
At last, It provide a strong support for enterprise safe and effective production based on above research. It also improves enterprise production effectiveness and safety management. This provides a new solution idea for coal mine safety management system evaluation and prediction and control.
在分析国内外煤矿安全管理研究现状的基础上,对灰色系统理论和煤矿安全事故的结合点进行了研究。结合平煤一矿安全生产统计数据,采用灰关联对影响矿山安全生产的主要致因因素进行了关联程度计算,然后根据企业实际情况进行分析,对安全管理中出现的不确定性风险因素进行客观的量化,预测煤矿安全管理中的薄弱环节,在事前通过对影响安全的因素进行预测,可以变被动、滞后、辅助的安全管理模式为主动、超前、本质的安全管理模式,达到有效的控制煤矿安全事故的效果。
在以上模型研究的基础上,首先提出了一种“人本管理”的企业安全文化管理模式;安全文化管理模式是依靠企业安全文化的凝聚力、影响力和渗透力,运用系统管理思想实现对煤矿企业的安全管理;其次构建了一种基于知识管理的煤矿安全事故预警方法,并对安全预警方法的评价指标体系、基于模糊综合评估煤矿安全预警模型、基于知识管理的煤矿安全管理预警方法运行模式,以及基于学习型专家支持数据库等部分关键技术进行了研究;最后,应用于该企业安全管理实践中,取得了较好的应用效果。
Along with the development of the socialist market economy and the influence of global energy crisis, the coal becomes more and more important in energy role. It is one of the key problems of the coal mine’s safety management to realize healthy、high and continuous development. It has an important meaning of the coal mine enterprise implement effective precaution and timely management of safety accidents. And it is also meaningful for preceding the enterprise’s normal production and improving the enterprise’s comprehensive competition. According to Pingdingshan No. 1 Mine’s current safety management, a grey system theory is used to establish the enterprise’s safety accidents analysis and prediction model. Through the model, the each effective factors correlation grade is analyzed. And the coal mine’s safety accidents prediction methods are discussed and researched. This provides a scientific and effective theory foundation for coal mine enterprise’s production safety management.
The main content is just as below:
(1) The grey system theory and coal mine safety accidents’combining spot is researched based on the introduction of grey system theory.
(2) The main cause factors which can influence the coal mine safety production is calculated in associated grade by grey correlation. And it is based on the safety production data statistics of the Pingdingshan No. 1 Mine. The enterprise’actual situation is analyzed too. The grey model is applied in coal mine safety accidents and modified by residual correction methods. It can improve the accuracy and also provide data support and theory foundation for enterprise’s scientific safety management.
(3) Through the analysis of grey model calculation results of the Pingdingshan No. 1 Mine and research of safety accidents characters, the safety cultural management model which also called“Humanistic management”is proposed in enterprise safety management model. The safety cultural management model is depending on enterprise’s cohesion, influence and penetration. It can propel safety behavior become the workers’habit and use system safety management theory manage the objects.
(4) A kind of knowledge management in coal mine safety accidents prediction method is proposed. The safety prediction methods’evaluation index system and the coal mine safety prediction model based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is researched. And the coal mine production safety management prediction operation model based on knowledge management and specialist supporting database base on studied model is researched too. This provides a new effective solution for disasters defense and reducing.
At last, It provide a strong support for enterprise safe and effective production based on above research. It also improves enterprise production effectiveness and safety management. This provides a new solution idea for coal mine safety management system evaluation and prediction and control.
引文
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