灰色系统理论在安太堡露天煤矿安全生产中的应用
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摘要
通过分析我国煤炭工业在国民经济发展中的重要地位和煤炭企业安全生产现状，指出了煤矿安全是煤炭企业健康、可持续发展的关键问题。针对露天矿山安全生产管理系统存在的不确定性，本文运用灰色系统理论相关知识，提出了矿山事故预测分析模型，通过模型预测事故发生趋向及影响因素关系，为企业采取有针对性的措施提供了依据。其主要内容如下：
（1）在对露天矿山安全生产数据统计的基础上，对影响矿山安全生产的主要致因因素进行了分析。
（2）将灰色GM（1，1）模型应用到露天矿山事故伤亡率的预测上，并采用残差修正方法进行多次修正，取得了良好的效果，提高了预测结果的精度和准确性。
（3）根据露天矿生产实际情况，选定影响事故伤亡率发生的因素，并利用改进的灰色关联分析方法对其进行了影响程度分析，得出其关联顺序，做到有的放矢，掌握安全工作的重点。
（4）针对露天矿山使用机械设备生产比重高的特点，尝试采用灰色灾变预测方法对矿山机械设备事故异常年份进行预测，并在数据处理过程中引入弱化缓冲算子，减少了误差，为矿山采取有效的防灾、减灾措施提供依据。
本文所研究的内容有很大部分都属于应用性研究，旨在通过本文中基本的矿山安全生产管理指标预测分析模型的构建，为露天煤矿安全生产管理系统的评价及预测控制开辟了一条全新的途径。
This thesis pointed out that coal safety was the key issue of the health and sustainabledevelopment of coal enterprise, by analyzing the important status of coal industry in nationaleconomy and the actuality of safety production of coal enterprise. Aiming at theindetermination in the safety production and management system of strip mine, the thesis putforward accident forecast and analysis model in mine by using grey system theory and whatnot. And through to model the thesis can predict the trend of accident happening and therelative relation of factor, the essay offered the basis to the measure with pertinence thatenterprise would take. The content of the thesis is as followed:
(1)On the basis of data Statistics of safety production in strip mine, the thesis analyzedprimary cause factors which influenced on safety production of mine.
(2)This thesis applied GM（1，1）model to predict of accident casualty rate of strip mine,and amended on it with residual error correction time after time , which acquired good resultsand improved precision and accuracy of forecast results.
(3)According to the actual production of strip mine, the thesis chose factors whichinfluenced on accident casualty rate and analyzed incidence on it with improved greycorrelative analysis methods, which acquired correlative order of it. Thus we have a definiteobject in view and can master emphases of safety works.
(4)Aiming at trait that there is a high proportion that machinery and equipment wereused in strip mine, the thesis attempted to adopt grey disasters prediction methods to predictabnormal years of machinery and equipment accident in strip mine, and Introduced buffer weakening operator in data processing , which reduced error and put forward the basis to theeffective disaster prevention and mitigation measures that the mine has taken.
The mostly parts of this thesis belonged to applied research. It aimed at opening up new achannel. The new channel is that this thesis opened for estimate and prediction control ofsafety production management system in strip mine by building prediction and analysismodel of indicator of safety production management in mine.
（1）在对露天矿山安全生产数据统计的基础上，对影响矿山安全生产的主要致因因素进行了分析。
（2）将灰色GM（1，1）模型应用到露天矿山事故伤亡率的预测上，并采用残差修正方法进行多次修正，取得了良好的效果，提高了预测结果的精度和准确性。
（3）根据露天矿生产实际情况，选定影响事故伤亡率发生的因素，并利用改进的灰色关联分析方法对其进行了影响程度分析，得出其关联顺序，做到有的放矢，掌握安全工作的重点。
（4）针对露天矿山使用机械设备生产比重高的特点，尝试采用灰色灾变预测方法对矿山机械设备事故异常年份进行预测，并在数据处理过程中引入弱化缓冲算子，减少了误差，为矿山采取有效的防灾、减灾措施提供依据。
本文所研究的内容有很大部分都属于应用性研究，旨在通过本文中基本的矿山安全生产管理指标预测分析模型的构建，为露天煤矿安全生产管理系统的评价及预测控制开辟了一条全新的途径。
This thesis pointed out that coal safety was the key issue of the health and sustainabledevelopment of coal enterprise, by analyzing the important status of coal industry in nationaleconomy and the actuality of safety production of coal enterprise. Aiming at theindetermination in the safety production and management system of strip mine, the thesis putforward accident forecast and analysis model in mine by using grey system theory and whatnot. And through to model the thesis can predict the trend of accident happening and therelative relation of factor, the essay offered the basis to the measure with pertinence thatenterprise would take. The content of the thesis is as followed:
(1)On the basis of data Statistics of safety production in strip mine, the thesis analyzedprimary cause factors which influenced on safety production of mine.
(2)This thesis applied GM（1，1）model to predict of accident casualty rate of strip mine,and amended on it with residual error correction time after time , which acquired good resultsand improved precision and accuracy of forecast results.
(3)According to the actual production of strip mine, the thesis chose factors whichinfluenced on accident casualty rate and analyzed incidence on it with improved greycorrelative analysis methods, which acquired correlative order of it. Thus we have a definiteobject in view and can master emphases of safety works.
(4)Aiming at trait that there is a high proportion that machinery and equipment wereused in strip mine, the thesis attempted to adopt grey disasters prediction methods to predictabnormal years of machinery and equipment accident in strip mine, and Introduced buffer weakening operator in data processing , which reduced error and put forward the basis to theeffective disaster prevention and mitigation measures that the mine has taken.
The mostly parts of this thesis belonged to applied research. It aimed at opening up new achannel. The new channel is that this thesis opened for estimate and prediction control ofsafety production management system in strip mine by building prediction and analysismodel of indicator of safety production management in mine.
引文
[1] 吴晓煜, 付建华, 梁嘉琨等. 煤矿安全管理与监察工作指导. 北京: 煤炭工业出版社,2002: 1-13.
[2] 宋子岭, 李继等. 以可持续发展的观点建设露天矿. 露天采矿技术. 2006, 4: 5-7.
[3] 林成. 安全预警管理技术在建筑施工中的应用. 施工技术. 2006, 35. 5: 31-35.
[4] 霍志勤, 罗帆. 空中交通安全预警管理研究. 中国安全科学学报. 2006, 16. 3: 60-64.
[5] 董维武编译. 世界煤炭生产与消费趋势. 中国煤炭. 2006, 32. 12: 76-78.
[6] 许名标, 彭德红. 我国煤矿事故的致因分析和对策. 矿业快报. 2006, 11: 33-35.
[7] S.G.Molotilov, V.K.Norri, V.I.Cheskidov and A.R.Mattis. Nature-oriented open coalmining technologies using mined-out space in an open pit. Journal of Mining Science.2006, 42. 6: 622-627.
[8] M.Suat Delibalta, Erkin Nasuf. The rehabuilitation and analysis of slope instability incoal open pit mines. International Scientific Conference SGEM 2003. 9 June-13 June2003. Albena, Bulgaria.
[9] 吴宗之. 安全生产法及相关法律知识. 北京: 中国大百科全书出版社, 2006:126-141.
[10] 彭宏颖, 程良. 应用科学方式 提高煤矿企业安全管理水平. 山东煤炭科技. 2006, 2:63-64.
[11] 吴穹, 许立开. 安全管理学. 北京: 煤炭工业出版社, 2002: 23.
[12] 刘思峰, 党耀国, 方志耕等. 灰色系统理论及其应用. 第三版. 北京: 科学出版社,2004: 1-17.
[13] Den, J. Control problem of grey system. System and Control Letters. 1982, 4: 228-294.
[14] 邓聚龙. 灰色控制系统. 修订版. 武汉: 华中理工大学出版社, 1993: 1-23.
[15] 邓聚龙. 灰色系统基本方法. 武汉: 华中工学院出版社, 1987: 1-17.
[16] 邓聚龙. 灰预测与灰决策. 武汉: 华中科技大学出版社, 2002: 7-44.
[17] 邓聚龙. 灰数学引论－灰色朦胧集. 武汉: 华中理工大学出版社, 1992: 3-18.
[18] 傅立. 灰色系统理论及其应用. 北京: 科学技术文献出版社, 1992: 45-50.
[19] Xu Jiuping. Optimizing Theory on Working Procedure with Grey Numbers. The Journalof Grey System. 1993, 5. 3: 189-196.
[20] 邓聚龙. 灰色理论基础. 武汉: 华中科技大学出版社, 2002: 145-152.
[21] Che,K.J., He,H.Y.. Grey relational analysis and topological prediction on ecologicalenvironment. Drey Syst. 1993, 5: 147-162.
[22] 邓聚龙. 五种灰色预测. 模糊数学. 1985. 2: 24-26.
[23] 朱赤辉. 基于灰色系统理论的室内空气品质的评价及应用研究[硕士学位论文], 长沙: 湖南大学, 2002, 6-17.
[24] 安太堡露天煤矿. 安太堡露天矿安全规程. 2002: 31-40.
[25] 谢进伸等. 实用煤矿安全系统工程. 北京: 中国科学技术出版社,1990:234-237.
[26] 吕光华. 矿业灰色系统. 北京: 煤炭工业出版社, 1993: 154.
[27] 赵云胜. 事故伤亡率的灰色预测. 地球科学——中国地质大学学报. 1992, 17. 2:223-229.
[28] 叶加冕. 某矿山事故伤亡率的灰色预测. 矿业快报. 2004, 8: 12-20.
[29] Zhao Da you. The statistics model of accident prediction. Statistics and Decision. 2002, 4:16-17.
[30] Peng Dongzhi. Study on method for accident prediction based on grey panel. ChinaSafety Science Journal. 2004, 14. 4: 36-39.
[31] Zhang Lijun, Zhou Yucai. Traffic accident prediction based on BP neutral networks.Journal of Shaoyang Callege, 2001, 14. 1: 12-14.
[32] 张景林, 崔国璋. 安全系统工程. 北京: 煤炭工业出版社, 2002: 160-167.
[33] Chi Chieh Tsung, Shih Ching Long. Errors analysis in GM(1,1) modeling for pathplanning of manipulator in joint space. The Journal of Grey System. 2000, 2: 157-164.
[34] P.LU, S.CAI, P.YANG and M.S.ROSENBAUM. Disintegration characteristics of weakrocks using the Grey Prediction technique. Geotechnical and Geological Engineering.2005, 23: 131-139.
[35] DengJL. Method for predicting the turing point of metabolized GM(1,1) model. TheJournal of Grey System. 1992, 4: 293-304.
[36] 孙辰军, 王翠茹, 张江维等. 残差灰色预测模型的改进与应用. 统计与决策. 2005, 3:19-20.
[37] 王大承. GM( 1 , 1 )模型在安全事故率预测中的应用. 五邑大学学报（自然科学版）.2001, 3: 11-14.
[38] 赵耀江等. 灰色预测在安全生产中的应用. 太原工业大学学报. 1997, 28. 4: 92-95.
[39] 杨建明等. 灰色系统理论在矿山安全事故预测中的应用. 矿业研究与开发. 2004, 24.1: 56-58.
[40] Chen,Y.K., Tan,X.R.. Grey relational analysis on serum markers of liver fibrosis. GreySyst. 1995, 7: 63-74.
[41] Long,X.G., Li,H.Y., Jia,F.G.. Analysis and envelope grey prediction in fruits and forestyields. Grey system. 1993, 5: 163-170.
[42] 石勇民. 灰色关联分析的改进与应用. 西安公路学院学报. 1994, 14. 3: 94-100.
[43] 吕锋. 灰色系统关联度之分辨系数的研究. 系统工程理论与实践. 1997, 6: 49-54.
[44] 赵艳林, 梅占馨. 模糊灰关联模式识别方法及其应用. 系统工程理论与实践, 1999, 6:67-70.
[45] 韩立岩, 汪培庄. 应用模糊数学. 北京: 首都经济贸易大学出版社, 1998: 56-60.
[46] 候德峰, 崔宝宪. 灰色预测在安全生产目标管理中的应用初探. 西部矿探工程. 2004,7: 23-26.
[47] 张星星. 灰色预测在矿山安全生产中的应用. 湖南有色金属. 2001, 3: 51-53.
[48] Cai,S., Tong,G. and Gao,H.. Grey system theory applied to rock mechanics. Mech. Min.Sci. & Geomech. Abstr. 1993, 4: 473-478.
[49] Chowdhury,R.N., Zhang,S.and Li,J.. Geotechnical risk and the uses of grey extrapolationtechnique. Proceedings of 6th Australia-new Zealand Conference on Geomechanics,New Zealand Geomechanics Society, Christchurch, New Zealand. 1992: 432-434.
[50] Lu,P. and Latham,J.P.. A continuous quantitative coding approach to the interactionmatrix in rock engineering systems based on grey systems approaches. Proc.7thIntern.Cong. of IAEG. Balkema. Rotterdam. 1994: 4761-4770.
[51] Lu,P.and Rosenbaum.M.S. Applications of Artificial Neural Networks and Grey Systemsto the prediction of state of slope stability, Natural Hazards: Journal of the InternationnalSociety for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards. Kluwer. 2003: 29.
[52] 魏庆翟, 陈斌. 交通事故侦测中占有率的改进灰色预测. 交通标准化. 2004, 144:33-35.
[53] Luo,J.J., zhang,Z.Q.. Grey periodic modified prediction for grain yield. Grey System.1991, 3: 221-226.
[2] 宋子岭, 李继等. 以可持续发展的观点建设露天矿. 露天采矿技术. 2006, 4: 5-7.
[3] 林成. 安全预警管理技术在建筑施工中的应用. 施工技术. 2006, 35. 5: 31-35.
[4] 霍志勤, 罗帆. 空中交通安全预警管理研究. 中国安全科学学报. 2006, 16. 3: 60-64.
[5] 董维武编译. 世界煤炭生产与消费趋势. 中国煤炭. 2006, 32. 12: 76-78.
[6] 许名标, 彭德红. 我国煤矿事故的致因分析和对策. 矿业快报. 2006, 11: 33-35.
[7] S.G.Molotilov, V.K.Norri, V.I.Cheskidov and A.R.Mattis. Nature-oriented open coalmining technologies using mined-out space in an open pit. Journal of Mining Science.2006, 42. 6: 622-627.
[8] M.Suat Delibalta, Erkin Nasuf. The rehabuilitation and analysis of slope instability incoal open pit mines. International Scientific Conference SGEM 2003. 9 June-13 June2003. Albena, Bulgaria.
[9] 吴宗之. 安全生产法及相关法律知识. 北京: 中国大百科全书出版社, 2006:126-141.
[10] 彭宏颖, 程良. 应用科学方式 提高煤矿企业安全管理水平. 山东煤炭科技. 2006, 2:63-64.
[11] 吴穹, 许立开. 安全管理学. 北京: 煤炭工业出版社, 2002: 23.
[12] 刘思峰, 党耀国, 方志耕等. 灰色系统理论及其应用. 第三版. 北京: 科学出版社,2004: 1-17.
[13] Den, J. Control problem of grey system. System and Control Letters. 1982, 4: 228-294.
[14] 邓聚龙. 灰色控制系统. 修订版. 武汉: 华中理工大学出版社, 1993: 1-23.
[15] 邓聚龙. 灰色系统基本方法. 武汉: 华中工学院出版社, 1987: 1-17.
[16] 邓聚龙. 灰预测与灰决策. 武汉: 华中科技大学出版社, 2002: 7-44.
[17] 邓聚龙. 灰数学引论－灰色朦胧集. 武汉: 华中理工大学出版社, 1992: 3-18.
[18] 傅立. 灰色系统理论及其应用. 北京: 科学技术文献出版社, 1992: 45-50.
[19] Xu Jiuping. Optimizing Theory on Working Procedure with Grey Numbers. The Journalof Grey System. 1993, 5. 3: 189-196.
[20] 邓聚龙. 灰色理论基础. 武汉: 华中科技大学出版社, 2002: 145-152.
[21] Che,K.J., He,H.Y.. Grey relational analysis and topological prediction on ecologicalenvironment. Drey Syst. 1993, 5: 147-162.
[22] 邓聚龙. 五种灰色预测. 模糊数学. 1985. 2: 24-26.
[23] 朱赤辉. 基于灰色系统理论的室内空气品质的评价及应用研究[硕士学位论文], 长沙: 湖南大学, 2002, 6-17.
[24] 安太堡露天煤矿. 安太堡露天矿安全规程. 2002: 31-40.
[25] 谢进伸等. 实用煤矿安全系统工程. 北京: 中国科学技术出版社,1990:234-237.
[26] 吕光华. 矿业灰色系统. 北京: 煤炭工业出版社, 1993: 154.
[27] 赵云胜. 事故伤亡率的灰色预测. 地球科学——中国地质大学学报. 1992, 17. 2:223-229.
[28] 叶加冕. 某矿山事故伤亡率的灰色预测. 矿业快报. 2004, 8: 12-20.
[29] Zhao Da you. The statistics model of accident prediction. Statistics and Decision. 2002, 4:16-17.
[30] Peng Dongzhi. Study on method for accident prediction based on grey panel. ChinaSafety Science Journal. 2004, 14. 4: 36-39.
[31] Zhang Lijun, Zhou Yucai. Traffic accident prediction based on BP neutral networks.Journal of Shaoyang Callege, 2001, 14. 1: 12-14.
[32] 张景林, 崔国璋. 安全系统工程. 北京: 煤炭工业出版社, 2002: 160-167.
[33] Chi Chieh Tsung, Shih Ching Long. Errors analysis in GM(1,1) modeling for pathplanning of manipulator in joint space. The Journal of Grey System. 2000, 2: 157-164.
[34] P.LU, S.CAI, P.YANG and M.S.ROSENBAUM. Disintegration characteristics of weakrocks using the Grey Prediction technique. Geotechnical and Geological Engineering.2005, 23: 131-139.
[35] DengJL. Method for predicting the turing point of metabolized GM(1,1) model. TheJournal of Grey System. 1992, 4: 293-304.
[36] 孙辰军, 王翠茹, 张江维等. 残差灰色预测模型的改进与应用. 统计与决策. 2005, 3:19-20.
[37] 王大承. GM( 1 , 1 )模型在安全事故率预测中的应用. 五邑大学学报（自然科学版）.2001, 3: 11-14.
[38] 赵耀江等. 灰色预测在安全生产中的应用. 太原工业大学学报. 1997, 28. 4: 92-95.
[39] 杨建明等. 灰色系统理论在矿山安全事故预测中的应用. 矿业研究与开发. 2004, 24.1: 56-58.
[40] Chen,Y.K., Tan,X.R.. Grey relational analysis on serum markers of liver fibrosis. GreySyst. 1995, 7: 63-74.
[41] Long,X.G., Li,H.Y., Jia,F.G.. Analysis and envelope grey prediction in fruits and forestyields. Grey system. 1993, 5: 163-170.
[42] 石勇民. 灰色关联分析的改进与应用. 西安公路学院学报. 1994, 14. 3: 94-100.
[43] 吕锋. 灰色系统关联度之分辨系数的研究. 系统工程理论与实践. 1997, 6: 49-54.
[44] 赵艳林, 梅占馨. 模糊灰关联模式识别方法及其应用. 系统工程理论与实践, 1999, 6:67-70.
[45] 韩立岩, 汪培庄. 应用模糊数学. 北京: 首都经济贸易大学出版社, 1998: 56-60.
[46] 候德峰, 崔宝宪. 灰色预测在安全生产目标管理中的应用初探. 西部矿探工程. 2004,7: 23-26.
[47] 张星星. 灰色预测在矿山安全生产中的应用. 湖南有色金属. 2001, 3: 51-53.
[48] Cai,S., Tong,G. and Gao,H.. Grey system theory applied to rock mechanics. Mech. Min.Sci. & Geomech. Abstr. 1993, 4: 473-478.
[49] Chowdhury,R.N., Zhang,S.and Li,J.. Geotechnical risk and the uses of grey extrapolationtechnique. Proceedings of 6th Australia-new Zealand Conference on Geomechanics,New Zealand Geomechanics Society, Christchurch, New Zealand. 1992: 432-434.
[50] Lu,P. and Latham,J.P.. A continuous quantitative coding approach to the interactionmatrix in rock engineering systems based on grey systems approaches. Proc.7thIntern.Cong. of IAEG. Balkema. Rotterdam. 1994: 4761-4770.
[51] Lu,P.and Rosenbaum.M.S. Applications of Artificial Neural Networks and Grey Systemsto the prediction of state of slope stability, Natural Hazards: Journal of the InternationnalSociety for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards. Kluwer. 2003: 29.
[52] 魏庆翟, 陈斌. 交通事故侦测中占有率的改进灰色预测. 交通标准化. 2004, 144:33-35.
[53] Luo,J.J., zhang,Z.Q.. Grey periodic modified prediction for grain yield. Grey System.1991, 3: 221-226.