基于最优搜索理论的流域事故性污染源搜索方法研究
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摘要
四川沱江和广东北江等一系列重大水污染事件警示我们,科学应对突发性水环境事件,已刻不容缓。在流域污染事故发生后,当务之急是迅速、准确地找出污染源,及时查处偷排、超标排放事故。污染源排放污染物是一个动态的变化过程,要掌握污染源排污状况的主要途径就是对各排污口和流域水质进行实时监测。但是受技术水平和经济条件等因素的限制,目前我国环境监测手段基本还停留在常规阶段,以人工监测为主,不能实现大面积、全天候的动态监测,因此仅依靠现有的流域环境监测手段很难快速、准确地确定污染源,以致延误处理时机,使流域污染进一步加剧。
最优搜索理论是二战期间发展起来的一门学科,其核心问题是在总搜索资源有限和目标分布不确定的情况下优化搜索资源的分配,使成功搜索到目标的可能性最大或付出的搜索代价最小。因此利用最优搜索理论对搜索资源进行优化,可以极大的提高搜索质量。
论文在系统地分析我国环境应急监测工作现状的基础上,从目标和搜索资源两个方面分析了影响流域事故性污染源最优搜索的因素,提出了流域事故性污染源最优搜索法及其模型体系。
首先根据流域内污染源的位置特点、各污染源排污口的规范情况,流域受污染的特征,将搜索区域进行了分类,提出相应的初始分布函数。通过对现有主观概率确定方法的综合分析,结合流域事故性污染源搜索工作的特点,采用NGT(nominal group technique)法进行主观概率的确定。针对NGT法对信息资源的需求,通过分析影响点污染源废水达标排放的各方面因素,结合流域点污染源的具体资料及现有的污染源调查表填报过程中所出现的相关问题,确定了全面且符合实际情况的管理系统指标,并用软件开发出了流域事故污染源搜索管理系统。
然后根据流域事故污染源目标分布类型,建立了事故污染源连续和间断排放污染物两种条件下,对应的静态探测函数和动态探测函数。针对在指定时间内没有找到目标的情况进行了行踪搜索分析,通过行踪搜索可以在一定搜索时间中没有找到目标的情况下,判断出事故性污染源最有可能存在于哪个子区域内。
其次,选择长江上游某区域作为研究对象,在充分分析该区域内各流域基础状况和流域内污染源现状的基础上,分别选择不同污染类型的典型流域,建立了相应的流域事故污染源最优搜索模型,当流域发生污染事故时可以指导搜索资源的分配。
通过各类型流域事故污染源搜索法的示例研究表明,流域事故污染源搜索法探测到事故性污染源的概率均高于传统的顺序搜索模式和按目标分布概率比例分配搜索时间其探测到目标的概率;流域事故污染源搜索探测到事故性污染源的平均性能比传统的顺序搜索模式探测到事故性污染源的平均性能高54.6%,比按目标分布概率比例分配搜索时间探测到事故性污染源的平均性能高13.2%。
Such a series of serious water environmental pollution incidents that happened in Tuojiang River in Sichuan Province and Beijiang River in Guangdong Province have cautioned us that it is urgent for us to reply for the environmental emergency scientifically. When pollution incident happened in a drainage area, what is most important is to find out the pollution sources quickly and accurately, and check out the illegal emitting accidents. It is a dynamic changing process for the pollution source to outlet pollutant, thus, the main access to get the message of the pollution source is to inspect every outlet and the water quality of the drainage area. However, as it is constrained by technology and economy, the monitoring method stays in the routine stage, which mainly counts on human and can not implement an extensive and all-day-long inspect. As a result, it is hard to confirm the pollution source quickly and accurately just rely on the current monitoring methods, which will dally over the right time to deal with the pollution and make the drainage area worse polluted.
The theory of optimal search is developed during World War II ,which is focused on optimizing the distribution of search effort when the total search efforts are limited and the target distributing is dubious. It can maximize the probability of searching the targets and minimize the effort. Therefore, the search quality can be mostly improved by optimizing the search efforts using the theory of optimal search.
Based on systematically analyzing the actuality of environmental lash-up monitoring in our country, this paper introduces the theory of optimal search, and analyzes the factors that affect the optimal search of the accidental pollution sources, according to target distributing and search effort distribution. At last the optimal search method and its model system for the drainage area accidental pollution sources are concluded.
Firstly, according to the characteristics of the position of pollution source, the criterion of every pollution outlet and the characteristics of the drainage area pollution, the search area is classified and the corresponding original distributing function is concluded. Through a comprehensive analysis of the current subjective probability, combined with the characteristics of the search job, a NGT method is adopted to confirm the subjective probability. Aimed at the information resource the NGT method requires, through analyzing the factors that affect the point source sewage from emitting legally, and combined with the detailed information of the drainage point pollution sources and the corresponding problems that arose when filling in the investigation table of the current pollution source, a system guide line for the management which is comprehensive and accords with the fact is confirmed, and a system that can be used to search and manage the drainage area pollution sources is carried out through software.
Secondly, according to the distribution of the drainage area accidental pollution sources, the four kinds of static state detecting functions and the four kinds of dynamic detecting functions corresponding to the continuous and discontinuous drainage states of the pollution sources respectively. Aimed at the situation that the target is not found before the stated time, a track search analysis is implemented, through which it can be decided which sub-area the accidental pollution source is possibly in, although the target is not found within the stated time.
Thirdly, a certain section of the upper Changjiang River is taken as the researching object, based on abundant analysis on the basic situation and the pollution source state of all the drainage areas, the Changjiang River (YiBin part), Yuexi River, Changning River with different pollution types are taken as the typical drainage areas, and the corresponding optimal search model is established, which can instruct the efforts distribution when pollution accidents take place in the area. The example study on the search method for different types of accidental pollution sources indicates that it is more probable for the drainage area accidental pollution source search method to find the accidental pollution source than the traditional ordinal search model does, and than the method which distributes search time according to the targets distributing probability does. It is 54.6% higher in average capability for the drainage area accidental pollution source search method to search the accidental pollution source than the traditional ordinal search model does. And it is 13.2% higher than the method which distributes search time according to the targets distributing probability does.
最优搜索理论是二战期间发展起来的一门学科,其核心问题是在总搜索资源有限和目标分布不确定的情况下优化搜索资源的分配,使成功搜索到目标的可能性最大或付出的搜索代价最小。因此利用最优搜索理论对搜索资源进行优化,可以极大的提高搜索质量。
论文在系统地分析我国环境应急监测工作现状的基础上,从目标和搜索资源两个方面分析了影响流域事故性污染源最优搜索的因素,提出了流域事故性污染源最优搜索法及其模型体系。
首先根据流域内污染源的位置特点、各污染源排污口的规范情况,流域受污染的特征,将搜索区域进行了分类,提出相应的初始分布函数。通过对现有主观概率确定方法的综合分析,结合流域事故性污染源搜索工作的特点,采用NGT(nominal group technique)法进行主观概率的确定。针对NGT法对信息资源的需求,通过分析影响点污染源废水达标排放的各方面因素,结合流域点污染源的具体资料及现有的污染源调查表填报过程中所出现的相关问题,确定了全面且符合实际情况的管理系统指标,并用软件开发出了流域事故污染源搜索管理系统。
然后根据流域事故污染源目标分布类型,建立了事故污染源连续和间断排放污染物两种条件下,对应的静态探测函数和动态探测函数。针对在指定时间内没有找到目标的情况进行了行踪搜索分析,通过行踪搜索可以在一定搜索时间中没有找到目标的情况下,判断出事故性污染源最有可能存在于哪个子区域内。
其次,选择长江上游某区域作为研究对象,在充分分析该区域内各流域基础状况和流域内污染源现状的基础上,分别选择不同污染类型的典型流域,建立了相应的流域事故污染源最优搜索模型,当流域发生污染事故时可以指导搜索资源的分配。
通过各类型流域事故污染源搜索法的示例研究表明,流域事故污染源搜索法探测到事故性污染源的概率均高于传统的顺序搜索模式和按目标分布概率比例分配搜索时间其探测到目标的概率;流域事故污染源搜索探测到事故性污染源的平均性能比传统的顺序搜索模式探测到事故性污染源的平均性能高54.6%,比按目标分布概率比例分配搜索时间探测到事故性污染源的平均性能高13.2%。
Such a series of serious water environmental pollution incidents that happened in Tuojiang River in Sichuan Province and Beijiang River in Guangdong Province have cautioned us that it is urgent for us to reply for the environmental emergency scientifically. When pollution incident happened in a drainage area, what is most important is to find out the pollution sources quickly and accurately, and check out the illegal emitting accidents. It is a dynamic changing process for the pollution source to outlet pollutant, thus, the main access to get the message of the pollution source is to inspect every outlet and the water quality of the drainage area. However, as it is constrained by technology and economy, the monitoring method stays in the routine stage, which mainly counts on human and can not implement an extensive and all-day-long inspect. As a result, it is hard to confirm the pollution source quickly and accurately just rely on the current monitoring methods, which will dally over the right time to deal with the pollution and make the drainage area worse polluted.
The theory of optimal search is developed during World War II ,which is focused on optimizing the distribution of search effort when the total search efforts are limited and the target distributing is dubious. It can maximize the probability of searching the targets and minimize the effort. Therefore, the search quality can be mostly improved by optimizing the search efforts using the theory of optimal search.
Based on systematically analyzing the actuality of environmental lash-up monitoring in our country, this paper introduces the theory of optimal search, and analyzes the factors that affect the optimal search of the accidental pollution sources, according to target distributing and search effort distribution. At last the optimal search method and its model system for the drainage area accidental pollution sources are concluded.
Firstly, according to the characteristics of the position of pollution source, the criterion of every pollution outlet and the characteristics of the drainage area pollution, the search area is classified and the corresponding original distributing function is concluded. Through a comprehensive analysis of the current subjective probability, combined with the characteristics of the search job, a NGT method is adopted to confirm the subjective probability. Aimed at the information resource the NGT method requires, through analyzing the factors that affect the point source sewage from emitting legally, and combined with the detailed information of the drainage point pollution sources and the corresponding problems that arose when filling in the investigation table of the current pollution source, a system guide line for the management which is comprehensive and accords with the fact is confirmed, and a system that can be used to search and manage the drainage area pollution sources is carried out through software.
Secondly, according to the distribution of the drainage area accidental pollution sources, the four kinds of static state detecting functions and the four kinds of dynamic detecting functions corresponding to the continuous and discontinuous drainage states of the pollution sources respectively. Aimed at the situation that the target is not found before the stated time, a track search analysis is implemented, through which it can be decided which sub-area the accidental pollution source is possibly in, although the target is not found within the stated time.
Thirdly, a certain section of the upper Changjiang River is taken as the researching object, based on abundant analysis on the basic situation and the pollution source state of all the drainage areas, the Changjiang River (YiBin part), Yuexi River, Changning River with different pollution types are taken as the typical drainage areas, and the corresponding optimal search model is established, which can instruct the efforts distribution when pollution accidents take place in the area. The example study on the search method for different types of accidental pollution sources indicates that it is more probable for the drainage area accidental pollution source search method to find the accidental pollution source than the traditional ordinal search model does, and than the method which distributes search time according to the targets distributing probability does. It is 54.6% higher in average capability for the drainage area accidental pollution source search method to search the accidental pollution source than the traditional ordinal search model does. And it is 13.2% higher than the method which distributes search time according to the targets distributing probability does.
引文
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