山东省对外贸易和经济增长对碳排放影响的实证分析
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摘要
生态环境保护和气候变化问题正在引起世界各国的普遍重视,温室气体减排不仅仅是缓解气候变化的一项有效措施,而且还成为了各国在环境、经济、社会和政治问题上讨论的热点。对外贸易和经济增长对碳排放的影响,这一课题事实上是环境与发展问题的一个特例,是在全球气候变暖、各国呼吁温室气体减排的大环境下衍生出来的。山东省作为中国经济发展的大省,2009年已实现生产总值33805.3亿元,居全国第三,为我国经济增长做出了很大贡献,但山东省传统高能耗、高污染、高排放、低技术含量、低附加值的产业在工业经济中的比重较大,对外贸易处于国际产业链上的低端位置,这些问题已成为制约山东省经济社会可持续发展的重要瓶颈。随着经济一体化进程的加快,工业化和城市化水平的提高,山东省的能源消费和碳排放量在今后几十年乃至更长时期内还将持续增长,如果沿着现有的经济增长方式和消费模式发展,我省将面临资源和环境的双重压力,还将遭遇一些隐蔽性较强的新型贸易保护措施。因此,认清山东省当前经济发展的状况,明确对外贸易和经济增长对碳排放的影响,可以对节能减排和经济可持续发展方针的制定提供理论依据和现实指导,并促使我省经济体迈入又好又快的低碳发展道路,进而实现经济发展的良性循环。
本文共分为五大部分。第一部分为导论,包括选题的现实背景和研究意义,论文的主要思路、研究的创新点和不足等内容；第二部分为文献综述,从国外和国内两个角度阐述了该领域三十年来的研究状况；第三部分为对外贸易和经济增长对碳排放影响的理论分析,运用坐标轴四象限的方法将对外贸易和经济增长对碳排放的影响进行了描述、总结和归纳,并得出了山东省目前的发展状况处于第一象限上的“感性认识”；第四部分以1980-2009年山东省碳排放、对外贸易、经济增长和能源消费的时间序列数据为基础,通过建立计量模型,实证分析了山东省对外贸易和经济增长对碳排放的影响。结果显示：变量之间存在长期协整关系,能源消费和对外贸易开放度是碳排放的格兰杰因,而经济增长不是碳排放的格兰杰因。山东省是碳污染的天堂和转移排放的对象,但山东省的经济增长和碳排放关系符合“环境库兹涅茨曲线”高收入阶段的情况,环境质量随着收入的增加而得到改善,处于理论分析中坐标轴的第四象限。第五部分为结论和政策建议,对本文的研究情况进行了总结,并提出了切实可行的降低山东省碳排放量的措施。气候变化问题是环境问题,也是发展问题,但最终是发展问题,需要在发展中解决碳排放问题,山东省可通过优化进出口结构、发展减排和贸易减排的方式实现经济的可持续发展和环境友好型社会的建设。
For now, many countries have paid more attention to Eco-environmental protection and climate change issues. Cutting greenhouse-gas emissions is not just an effective measure to cope with climatic change, but also a Hotpoint of environment, economy, society and politics. The influence on the carbon emissions of trade and growth is a special case of research on development and environment issues, this subject was presented on the background of global warming and carbon reduction. Shandong is one of the biggest provinces in economy, it has already realized GDP to￥3380.53 billion in 2009, ranked third and made a great contribution to China's growth, but Shandong's high pollution, high emissions, low-tech, low value-added industries play a large part in industrial economy, meanwhile, trade is in lower reaches of global supply chains, these problems have seriously restricted economic sustainable development. With the acceleration in the process of economy globalization and advanced level of urbanization, Shandong's energy consumption and carbon emissions will continue to grow for decades. If we continue use the existing development patterns, we will face both resource and environment pressures, along with some new covert trade protection measures. Therefore, we must recognize the current economic growth situation of Shandong province, clear the influence of trade and growth on carbon emissions, these actions will help our government set reasonable policies of energy saving and economic development, well into the low carbon development road, so as to realize a benign cycle of economic development.
This paper is divided into five parts with the main themes of each part as follows:
The first part is introduction, including the background, values, main ideas, innovation and deficiencies. The second part focuses on the literature review. It reviews the literatures on nation tier and area tier for the past thirty years. The third part is theoretical analysis, about the impact of trade and economic growth on carbon emissions, this part uses the coordinate methods and gets an emotional cognition, that is to say, Shandong province is in the first quartile. The fourth part is empirical analysis of Shandong province, based on the data of carbon emissions, trade, economic growth and energy consumption from the year 1980 to 2009.Conclusion shows:These four variables have long-term cointegration relationship; Energy consumption and trade are the Grange cause of carbon emissions, but economic growth is not the Granger cause of carbon emissions. Shandong is the heaven and the transfer of carbon emission pollution, but the current situation is fit for the high income stage of "kuznets curve", environmental quality is improved as income soared. The fifth part is the conclusion and related policy suggestions, including the summary of the research and some feasible measures to reduce carbon emissions in Shandong province. Climate change is not only an environmental problem, but also a development issue, in the end; we must solve the problem in developing. We can through "trade structure optimization","development emission reduction" and "trade emission reduction" means to realize the sustainable development of economy and environment and then establish a friendly society.
本文共分为五大部分。第一部分为导论,包括选题的现实背景和研究意义,论文的主要思路、研究的创新点和不足等内容；第二部分为文献综述,从国外和国内两个角度阐述了该领域三十年来的研究状况；第三部分为对外贸易和经济增长对碳排放影响的理论分析,运用坐标轴四象限的方法将对外贸易和经济增长对碳排放的影响进行了描述、总结和归纳,并得出了山东省目前的发展状况处于第一象限上的“感性认识”；第四部分以1980-2009年山东省碳排放、对外贸易、经济增长和能源消费的时间序列数据为基础,通过建立计量模型,实证分析了山东省对外贸易和经济增长对碳排放的影响。结果显示：变量之间存在长期协整关系,能源消费和对外贸易开放度是碳排放的格兰杰因,而经济增长不是碳排放的格兰杰因。山东省是碳污染的天堂和转移排放的对象,但山东省的经济增长和碳排放关系符合“环境库兹涅茨曲线”高收入阶段的情况,环境质量随着收入的增加而得到改善,处于理论分析中坐标轴的第四象限。第五部分为结论和政策建议,对本文的研究情况进行了总结,并提出了切实可行的降低山东省碳排放量的措施。气候变化问题是环境问题,也是发展问题,但最终是发展问题,需要在发展中解决碳排放问题,山东省可通过优化进出口结构、发展减排和贸易减排的方式实现经济的可持续发展和环境友好型社会的建设。
For now, many countries have paid more attention to Eco-environmental protection and climate change issues. Cutting greenhouse-gas emissions is not just an effective measure to cope with climatic change, but also a Hotpoint of environment, economy, society and politics. The influence on the carbon emissions of trade and growth is a special case of research on development and environment issues, this subject was presented on the background of global warming and carbon reduction. Shandong is one of the biggest provinces in economy, it has already realized GDP to￥3380.53 billion in 2009, ranked third and made a great contribution to China's growth, but Shandong's high pollution, high emissions, low-tech, low value-added industries play a large part in industrial economy, meanwhile, trade is in lower reaches of global supply chains, these problems have seriously restricted economic sustainable development. With the acceleration in the process of economy globalization and advanced level of urbanization, Shandong's energy consumption and carbon emissions will continue to grow for decades. If we continue use the existing development patterns, we will face both resource and environment pressures, along with some new covert trade protection measures. Therefore, we must recognize the current economic growth situation of Shandong province, clear the influence of trade and growth on carbon emissions, these actions will help our government set reasonable policies of energy saving and economic development, well into the low carbon development road, so as to realize a benign cycle of economic development.
This paper is divided into five parts with the main themes of each part as follows:
The first part is introduction, including the background, values, main ideas, innovation and deficiencies. The second part focuses on the literature review. It reviews the literatures on nation tier and area tier for the past thirty years. The third part is theoretical analysis, about the impact of trade and economic growth on carbon emissions, this part uses the coordinate methods and gets an emotional cognition, that is to say, Shandong province is in the first quartile. The fourth part is empirical analysis of Shandong province, based on the data of carbon emissions, trade, economic growth and energy consumption from the year 1980 to 2009.Conclusion shows:These four variables have long-term cointegration relationship; Energy consumption and trade are the Grange cause of carbon emissions, but economic growth is not the Granger cause of carbon emissions. Shandong is the heaven and the transfer of carbon emission pollution, but the current situation is fit for the high income stage of "kuznets curve", environmental quality is improved as income soared. The fifth part is the conclusion and related policy suggestions, including the summary of the research and some feasible measures to reduce carbon emissions in Shandong province. Climate change is not only an environmental problem, but also a development issue, in the end; we must solve the problem in developing. We can through "trade structure optimization","development emission reduction" and "trade emission reduction" means to realize the sustainable development of economy and environment and then establish a friendly society.
引文
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10贸易隐含碳排放：别国在享用我国出口商品时而避免在本国排放的二氧化碳量。我国出口贸易中内涵的二氧化碳量是不同的贸易商品从生产到出口等环节累计之和。
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12污染贸易条件(pollution terms of trade)最初由Antweiler在1996年提出,即单位货币价值出口额所含污染排放量与单位货币价值进口额所含污染排放量的比值,通过比较一国出口和进口污染密集度的大小,进而测度一国参与国际贸易的环境收益或损失。
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