江西省碳排放时空变化特征研究
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摘要
?气候变化是全球关注的热点环境问题。许多研究都证明,气候变化主要是由人类活动引起的,其驱动因子主要是温室气体,而二氧化碳又占到了整个温室气体排放的76%。中国政府以科学发展观为指导,提出了加快建设资源节约型和环境友好型社会的战略目标,江西省也于2010年开始进行低碳发展试点。因此,准确地把握区域碳排放特征,采取有针对性的措施减少碳排放意义重大。
论文以江西省域二氧化碳排放的时空特征为主线,运用理论研究与实证分析相结合的方法,研究测算了江西省二氧化碳排放现状和趋势,结合案例分析提出江西发展低碳经济的必要性,以期为类似地区提供参考。
论文在收集大量的文献资料和整理了国内外温室气体尤其是二氧化碳排放研究的基础上,对有关的碳排放测算方法及系数进行总结,确定了江西省二氧化碳排放量的测算方法;运用遥感、GIS技术分析江西省土地利用变化情况并计算土地利用变化导致的碳排放;计算水泥生产、人口排放的二氧化碳;了解江西省能源消费的总体状况,在对能源利用排放二氧化碳的量进行计算的基础上进一步分析江西省11个设区市的能源碳排放空间特征;分析和预测了工业型和生态型两个县市的碳排放。
研究结论表明,全省1995-2009年碳排放量呈现上升趋势,由8659万吨上升为16571万吨;土地利用变化导致的二氧化碳排放方面,水田转化为聚居地导致的碳排放最大,林地转化为聚居地次之,应慎重扩张城市;能源消耗是江西省二氧化碳排放的主要来源,应提高能源使用效率;空间上全省能源碳排集中在赣北及赣西北,九江新余萍乡宜春占到全省能源碳排的60-70%;贵溪市和资溪县的案例分析表明,发展低碳经济是处理好经济发展和环境保护两者关系的必由之路。
Climate change is the biggest global concern today. Many studies show that the climate change is caused by human activities. The driving factor of global warming is greenhouse gases, particularly the carbon dioxide whose accounted for the entire 76% of greenhouse gas emissions. The Chinese government set up a strategic goal of building a conservation-minded and environmentally friendly society guided by the scientific approach. Jiangxi Province have began to carry out low-carbon development pilot project in 2010. Consequently, grasp the macro characteristics of a region's carbon emissions, and then take measures to reduce the number of carbon emissions with a purpose are significance of this magnificent.
This thesis taking the research on carbon emissions spatial and temporal characteristics of provincial as its mainstream, systematically calculated the number of carbon emissions and probes into the status of the carbon emissions, then research on two typical cases put forward the need for a low carbon economy in Jiangxi, in order to provide a reference for similar areas.
Firstly, based on collecting a mass data and arranging the internal and external greenhouse gas emissions research, especially carbon emissions research, this thesis summarizes the various carbon emissions factors, and also builds the measuring and calculating methods of carbon emissions; Secondly, it using remote sensing, GIS means of land-use land-cover(LULC) change in Jiangxi province and calculate the carbon emissions caused by LULC change; Thirdly, it calculated the carbon emissions caused by cement production and human respiration; Fourthly, based on calculation of carbon emissions caused by energy utilization, it analysis the overall carbon dioxide emissions condition and trend of spatial and temporal characteristics of eleven prefecture-level cities. Fifthly, it analysis and predict the carbon emissions of two counties which one is industrial type and the other is ecotype.
The results are listed as follows: The province's carbon dioxide emissions is on the rise, from 86.59 million tons in 1995 to 165.71 million tons in 2009; Paddy fields turn into settlements led to the largest carbon emissions, the second is forest land turn into settlements. We should prudent to expend cities; Energy consumption is the main source of carbon emissions, we should increase the energy efficiency; Carbon emissions caused by energy concentrated in the north and northwest of Jiangxi, Pingxiang, Xinyu, Yichun, Jiujiang accounted for 60-70% of whole of the energy carbon emissions; The analysis of Guixi and Zixi counties show that: low-carbon economy is the only way to dealing with the contradictions of economic development and environmental.
论文以江西省域二氧化碳排放的时空特征为主线,运用理论研究与实证分析相结合的方法,研究测算了江西省二氧化碳排放现状和趋势,结合案例分析提出江西发展低碳经济的必要性,以期为类似地区提供参考。
论文在收集大量的文献资料和整理了国内外温室气体尤其是二氧化碳排放研究的基础上,对有关的碳排放测算方法及系数进行总结,确定了江西省二氧化碳排放量的测算方法;运用遥感、GIS技术分析江西省土地利用变化情况并计算土地利用变化导致的碳排放;计算水泥生产、人口排放的二氧化碳;了解江西省能源消费的总体状况,在对能源利用排放二氧化碳的量进行计算的基础上进一步分析江西省11个设区市的能源碳排放空间特征;分析和预测了工业型和生态型两个县市的碳排放。
研究结论表明,全省1995-2009年碳排放量呈现上升趋势,由8659万吨上升为16571万吨;土地利用变化导致的二氧化碳排放方面,水田转化为聚居地导致的碳排放最大,林地转化为聚居地次之,应慎重扩张城市;能源消耗是江西省二氧化碳排放的主要来源,应提高能源使用效率;空间上全省能源碳排集中在赣北及赣西北,九江新余萍乡宜春占到全省能源碳排的60-70%;贵溪市和资溪县的案例分析表明,发展低碳经济是处理好经济发展和环境保护两者关系的必由之路。
Climate change is the biggest global concern today. Many studies show that the climate change is caused by human activities. The driving factor of global warming is greenhouse gases, particularly the carbon dioxide whose accounted for the entire 76% of greenhouse gas emissions. The Chinese government set up a strategic goal of building a conservation-minded and environmentally friendly society guided by the scientific approach. Jiangxi Province have began to carry out low-carbon development pilot project in 2010. Consequently, grasp the macro characteristics of a region's carbon emissions, and then take measures to reduce the number of carbon emissions with a purpose are significance of this magnificent.
This thesis taking the research on carbon emissions spatial and temporal characteristics of provincial as its mainstream, systematically calculated the number of carbon emissions and probes into the status of the carbon emissions, then research on two typical cases put forward the need for a low carbon economy in Jiangxi, in order to provide a reference for similar areas.
Firstly, based on collecting a mass data and arranging the internal and external greenhouse gas emissions research, especially carbon emissions research, this thesis summarizes the various carbon emissions factors, and also builds the measuring and calculating methods of carbon emissions; Secondly, it using remote sensing, GIS means of land-use land-cover(LULC) change in Jiangxi province and calculate the carbon emissions caused by LULC change; Thirdly, it calculated the carbon emissions caused by cement production and human respiration; Fourthly, based on calculation of carbon emissions caused by energy utilization, it analysis the overall carbon dioxide emissions condition and trend of spatial and temporal characteristics of eleven prefecture-level cities. Fifthly, it analysis and predict the carbon emissions of two counties which one is industrial type and the other is ecotype.
The results are listed as follows: The province's carbon dioxide emissions is on the rise, from 86.59 million tons in 1995 to 165.71 million tons in 2009; Paddy fields turn into settlements led to the largest carbon emissions, the second is forest land turn into settlements. We should prudent to expend cities; Energy consumption is the main source of carbon emissions, we should increase the energy efficiency; Carbon emissions caused by energy concentrated in the north and northwest of Jiangxi, Pingxiang, Xinyu, Yichun, Jiujiang accounted for 60-70% of whole of the energy carbon emissions; The analysis of Guixi and Zixi counties show that: low-carbon economy is the only way to dealing with the contradictions of economic development and environmental.
引文
[1]IPCC.Summary for Pikuctnajerd of Climate Change2007:The Physieal Seienee Basis.Contribution of Working GroupⅠto the Fourth Assessment RePort of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.2007.
[2]中华人民共和国气候变化初始国家信息通报.[N]2004-11.
[3]中国应对气候变化国家方案.[N]2007-06.
[4]朱莉娜.成都市碳排放量及排放特征分析.[D]西南交通大学环境科学,2007.
[5]郭军,赵连臣等.辽宁省温室气体排放现状及减排措施分析[J].可再生能源. 2008,26(02):110-113.
[6]刘尚余,赵黛青等,广东省温室气体减排潜力分析与预测[J]可再生能源.2006, (05):93-95.
[7]陈冠雄,黄国宏等.稻田CH4和N2O的排放及养萍和施肥的影响[J]应用生态学报,1995,23(04): 378-382.
[8]杨书运,王凤文.农田CO2:释放初步研究[J].安徽农业科学,2003,31(05): 757-758.
[9]王毅勇,郑循华,宋长春,赵志春.三江平原典型湖沼湿地氧化亚氮通量[J]应用生态学报,2006, 14(03):493-497.
[10]卢妍,宋长春等.植物对沼泽湿地生态系统N20排放的影响[J]生态与农村环境学报,2007,9 (04):72-75.
[11]P.E.Levy,D.C.Mobbs,et al.Simulation of fluxes of greenhouse from European grasslands using the DNDC mode[J].Agriculture,Ecosystem & Environment.2007,121(1-2):186-192.
[12]Brack CL.Pollution mitigation and carbon sequestration by an urban forest[J].Environment Pollution.2002,116(4):195-200.
[13]Pouyat R, Groffman P,et al.Soil cabon pools andfluxes in urban ecosystem[J].Environmental Management.2002,64(2):317-327.
[14]Pascal Poudenx. The effect of transportation policies on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission from urban passenger transportation[J].Transportation Research Part A.2008,42:901-909.
[15]崔丽丽,王铮等.中国经济受二氧化碳减排影响的不确定性CGE模拟分析[J].安全与环境学报.2002, 2(01):39-42.
[16]张阿玲,郑淮等.适合中国国情的经济、能源、环境(3E)模型[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版)2002,42(12):1616-1620.
[17]陈文颖,高鹏飞,何建坤.采用MARKAL-MACRO模型研究碳减排对中国能源系统的影响[J]清华大学学报(自然科学版),2004,44(03):342-346.
[18]王灿等.清洁发展机制对温室气体减排的贡献团.清华大学学报(自然科学版),2008,(03):358-362.
[19]王铮,蒋轶红等.技术进步下中国二氧化碳减排的可能性[J].生态学报. 2006,26(2):423-431.
[20]胡秀莲,姜克隽,崔成.城市生活垃圾焚烧发电CDM项目案例分析[J]中国能源,2002,25(07):21-27.
[21]楼波,蔡睿贤.清洁发展机制下的垃圾处理分析[J]华南理工大学学报(自然科学版),2006,12(l0):100-104.
[22]AnnemarieC.Kerkhof,HenriC.Moll,et al.Taxation of multiple greenhouse gases and the effects on income distribution:A case study of the Netherlands[J].Ecological Economics.2008,29(2):569-578.
[23]郭运功.特大城市温室气体排放量测算与排放特征分析——以上海为例[D]: [硕士学位论文].上海:华东师范大学资源与环境科学学院,2009.
[24] IPCC国家温室气体清单指南.[N] 2006
[25]张德英.我国工业部门碳源排碳量估算方法研究[D].北京林业大学,2006.
[26]Jarvis,P G,J M Massheder,S E Hale,J B Moncrieff,et al. Seasonal variation of carbon dioxide, water vapour and energy exchange of a boreal black spruce forest[J]. Jounal of Geophysical Researeh.1997,102: 28953-28966.
[27]Lee, X H.On micro-meterrological observational of surfaceair exchange over tall vegetation[J].Agrieultural and Forest Meteorology. 1998,91:39-49.
[28]Malhi Y Nobre,J Grace,et al. Carbon dioxide transfer over a central AmaZonian rian forest[J].Journal of Geophysieal Researeh,1998, 24:31593-31612.
[29]方精云,陈安平,超淑清,慈龙骏.中国森林生物量的估算:对Fang等Science一文(Science, 2001,291:2320-2322)的若干说明.植物生态学报,2002,26(2) 243-249.
[30]Mann L K.Changes in soil carbon storage after celtivation[J].Soil Science, 1986, 142:279-288.
[31]MutyD,KIRSCHBAUM M F,MCMURTR IE R E,et al.Does conversion of forest to agicultural and land change soil carbon and nitrogen? a review of the literature[J].Global Change Biology, 2002,8:105-123.
[32]Veldkamp E.Changes in siol carbon stoeks following conversion of forest to pasture in the tropics[J].soil Processes and Global Change, 1994,l-19.
[33]Gareia-Oliva F,Casar l,Morales P.Forest-to-pasture conversion influences on soil organic carbon dynamies in a tropical deciduous forest[J].Oecologia,1994,99:392-396.
[34]HoughtonRA.The US carbon budget's contributions from land-use change. Seience, 1999,285:574-578.
[35]刘纪远,王绍强等.1990-2000年中国土壤碳氮蓄积量与土地利用变化[J].地理学报. 2004,59 (04):483-496.
[36]POSTW M,KWON K C.Soil carbon sequestration and land use change:processes and potential[J].G1obal Change Biology,2000,6:317-327.
[37]LUGO A E,SANCHEZ A J,BROWN S.Land use and organic carbon content of some subtropical soils[J].Planl Soil,1986,96:185-196.
[38]LUGO A E,SANCHEZ A J,BROWN S.Land use and organic carbon content of some subtropical soils[J].Planl Soil,1986,96:185-196.
[39]Scott N A,Tate K R..Soil carbon storage in plantation forests and pastures[J].Tellus,1999,5lB: 326-335.
[40]Polglase P J K.Change in soil carbon following afforestation or reforestation.National Carbon Accounting System Technical Report[A],No.20.Commonwealth of Australia,Canberra.Prinied in Australia for the Australian Greenhouse Office,2000.1-119.
[41]WANG Y.The impaets of land use change on C tumover in soils[J].Global Biogeochemieal Cyeles,1999,13(1):47-57.
[42]Cihacek L J,Ulmer M G.Effects of tillage on profile soil carbon distribution in the northern Great Plains of theU.S[M].In:Lal R,Kimble J M.Management of Carbon Sequestration in Soil.Boca Raton,Florida:CRC Press.1998.83-91.
[43]Whittaker R H,Likens GE.The biosphere and man..In:Lieth H,Whittaker R H,eds.Primary Productivity of the Biosphere.New York:Springer Verlag,1975.305-328.
[44]Malhi,Y.D.D.Baldoeehi&P.G.Jarvis,1999.The carbon balance of tropical,temperate and boreal forests Plant,Cell and Environment. 22:715-740.
[45]V.Wllitford.Amouse of urban areas and their application to Merseyside,UK[J].Landscape and Urban Planning.2001,57(3):91-103.
[46]方精云,唐艳鸿,林俊达,蒋高明.《全球生态学气候变化与生态响应》高等教育出版社,Springer出版社,2000.
[47]Schlesinger W H.Carbon balance in terrestrial detritus.Ann Rev E col Syst,1977,8:51-81.
[48]Buringh P.Organic carbon in soil of theworld.In:Woodwell G M,ed.The role of terrestrical vegetation in the global carbon cyele measurement by remote sensing New York:John Wiley&son,1984 91-109.
[2]中华人民共和国气候变化初始国家信息通报.[N]2004-11.
[3]中国应对气候变化国家方案.[N]2007-06.
[4]朱莉娜.成都市碳排放量及排放特征分析.[D]西南交通大学环境科学,2007.
[5]郭军,赵连臣等.辽宁省温室气体排放现状及减排措施分析[J].可再生能源. 2008,26(02):110-113.
[6]刘尚余,赵黛青等,广东省温室气体减排潜力分析与预测[J]可再生能源.2006, (05):93-95.
[7]陈冠雄,黄国宏等.稻田CH4和N2O的排放及养萍和施肥的影响[J]应用生态学报,1995,23(04): 378-382.
[8]杨书运,王凤文.农田CO2:释放初步研究[J].安徽农业科学,2003,31(05): 757-758.
[9]王毅勇,郑循华,宋长春,赵志春.三江平原典型湖沼湿地氧化亚氮通量[J]应用生态学报,2006, 14(03):493-497.
[10]卢妍,宋长春等.植物对沼泽湿地生态系统N20排放的影响[J]生态与农村环境学报,2007,9 (04):72-75.
[11]P.E.Levy,D.C.Mobbs,et al.Simulation of fluxes of greenhouse from European grasslands using the DNDC mode[J].Agriculture,Ecosystem & Environment.2007,121(1-2):186-192.
[12]Brack CL.Pollution mitigation and carbon sequestration by an urban forest[J].Environment Pollution.2002,116(4):195-200.
[13]Pouyat R, Groffman P,et al.Soil cabon pools andfluxes in urban ecosystem[J].Environmental Management.2002,64(2):317-327.
[14]Pascal Poudenx. The effect of transportation policies on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission from urban passenger transportation[J].Transportation Research Part A.2008,42:901-909.
[15]崔丽丽,王铮等.中国经济受二氧化碳减排影响的不确定性CGE模拟分析[J].安全与环境学报.2002, 2(01):39-42.
[16]张阿玲,郑淮等.适合中国国情的经济、能源、环境(3E)模型[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版)2002,42(12):1616-1620.
[17]陈文颖,高鹏飞,何建坤.采用MARKAL-MACRO模型研究碳减排对中国能源系统的影响[J]清华大学学报(自然科学版),2004,44(03):342-346.
[18]王灿等.清洁发展机制对温室气体减排的贡献团.清华大学学报(自然科学版),2008,(03):358-362.
[19]王铮,蒋轶红等.技术进步下中国二氧化碳减排的可能性[J].生态学报. 2006,26(2):423-431.
[20]胡秀莲,姜克隽,崔成.城市生活垃圾焚烧发电CDM项目案例分析[J]中国能源,2002,25(07):21-27.
[21]楼波,蔡睿贤.清洁发展机制下的垃圾处理分析[J]华南理工大学学报(自然科学版),2006,12(l0):100-104.
[22]AnnemarieC.Kerkhof,HenriC.Moll,et al.Taxation of multiple greenhouse gases and the effects on income distribution:A case study of the Netherlands[J].Ecological Economics.2008,29(2):569-578.
[23]郭运功.特大城市温室气体排放量测算与排放特征分析——以上海为例[D]: [硕士学位论文].上海:华东师范大学资源与环境科学学院,2009.
[24] IPCC国家温室气体清单指南.[N] 2006
[25]张德英.我国工业部门碳源排碳量估算方法研究[D].北京林业大学,2006.
[26]Jarvis,P G,J M Massheder,S E Hale,J B Moncrieff,et al. Seasonal variation of carbon dioxide, water vapour and energy exchange of a boreal black spruce forest[J]. Jounal of Geophysical Researeh.1997,102: 28953-28966.
[27]Lee, X H.On micro-meterrological observational of surfaceair exchange over tall vegetation[J].Agrieultural and Forest Meteorology. 1998,91:39-49.
[28]Malhi Y Nobre,J Grace,et al. Carbon dioxide transfer over a central AmaZonian rian forest[J].Journal of Geophysieal Researeh,1998, 24:31593-31612.
[29]方精云,陈安平,超淑清,慈龙骏.中国森林生物量的估算:对Fang等Science一文(Science, 2001,291:2320-2322)的若干说明.植物生态学报,2002,26(2) 243-249.
[30]Mann L K.Changes in soil carbon storage after celtivation[J].Soil Science, 1986, 142:279-288.
[31]MutyD,KIRSCHBAUM M F,MCMURTR IE R E,et al.Does conversion of forest to agicultural and land change soil carbon and nitrogen? a review of the literature[J].Global Change Biology, 2002,8:105-123.
[32]Veldkamp E.Changes in siol carbon stoeks following conversion of forest to pasture in the tropics[J].soil Processes and Global Change, 1994,l-19.
[33]Gareia-Oliva F,Casar l,Morales P.Forest-to-pasture conversion influences on soil organic carbon dynamies in a tropical deciduous forest[J].Oecologia,1994,99:392-396.
[34]HoughtonRA.The US carbon budget's contributions from land-use change. Seience, 1999,285:574-578.
[35]刘纪远,王绍强等.1990-2000年中国土壤碳氮蓄积量与土地利用变化[J].地理学报. 2004,59 (04):483-496.
[36]POSTW M,KWON K C.Soil carbon sequestration and land use change:processes and potential[J].G1obal Change Biology,2000,6:317-327.
[37]LUGO A E,SANCHEZ A J,BROWN S.Land use and organic carbon content of some subtropical soils[J].Planl Soil,1986,96:185-196.
[38]LUGO A E,SANCHEZ A J,BROWN S.Land use and organic carbon content of some subtropical soils[J].Planl Soil,1986,96:185-196.
[39]Scott N A,Tate K R..Soil carbon storage in plantation forests and pastures[J].Tellus,1999,5lB: 326-335.
[40]Polglase P J K.Change in soil carbon following afforestation or reforestation.National Carbon Accounting System Technical Report[A],No.20.Commonwealth of Australia,Canberra.Prinied in Australia for the Australian Greenhouse Office,2000.1-119.
[41]WANG Y.The impaets of land use change on C tumover in soils[J].Global Biogeochemieal Cyeles,1999,13(1):47-57.
[42]Cihacek L J,Ulmer M G.Effects of tillage on profile soil carbon distribution in the northern Great Plains of theU.S[M].In:Lal R,Kimble J M.Management of Carbon Sequestration in Soil.Boca Raton,Florida:CRC Press.1998.83-91.
[43]Whittaker R H,Likens GE.The biosphere and man..In:Lieth H,Whittaker R H,eds.Primary Productivity of the Biosphere.New York:Springer Verlag,1975.305-328.
[44]Malhi,Y.D.D.Baldoeehi&P.G.Jarvis,1999.The carbon balance of tropical,temperate and boreal forests Plant,Cell and Environment. 22:715-740.
[45]V.Wllitford.Amouse of urban areas and their application to Merseyside,UK[J].Landscape and Urban Planning.2001,57(3):91-103.
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