低碳经济模式下安徽省碳排放影响因素与减排策略
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摘要
随着经济全球化进程的加快,环境问题逐步演化为全球性的问题。能源的巨大消耗,高污染产业的跨国转移特别是温室气体排放量逐年增大已经引起国际学术界的广泛关注。全球气候变化问题是当今世界面临的最重大的环境问题也是二十一世纪全球面临的最重大的挑战之一。目前作为国际上碳排放总量和增量都是最大的国家,我国面临的国际压力逐渐增大。安徽省作为能源大省,经济增长在快速推进,经济发展阶段的能源需求特征是以煤炭作为主要能源,加上产业结构和人们消费观念的原因导致安徽省的温室气体排放量逐年攀升。而低碳经济要求碳排放要减排,针对这样一对矛盾,本文对安徽省的碳排放与经济发展之间的关系进行分析,分析影响碳排放的因素,为提出合理的碳减排策略提供理论指导。本文的主要结论如下:
(1)首先对于安徽省的二氧化碳排放量与经济增长之间的关系进行分析,探寻二者之间的环境库兹涅茨曲线。结果表明安徽省的环境库兹涅茨曲线是呈上升趋势的,具体形状是倒“U”型的左半部分,也就是说安徽省的环境库兹涅茨曲线还没有达到理论值的拐点。这就意味着安徽省的二氧化碳排放量每年仍然是呈递增的态势的。
(2)通过kaya恒等式对于安徽省的温室气体排放量进行分解,大致上分为能源消费碳强度、能源强度、人均GDP和总人口数四个因素。分析四个因素对于安徽省的二氧化碳排放总量的关系,结果发现安徽省的能源消费碳强度和能源强度与二氧化碳排放量的关系最为密切,两个指标每变动百分之一,分别会带动二氧化碳排放总量同方向变动0.905和0.941个百分点。而人均GDP和总人口每变动一个百分点,分别会引起二氧化碳排放总量同方向变动0.725和0.356个百分点。
(3)然后,本文对于安徽省2011年至2020年的温室气体排放量进行了静态预测与动态预测。其中静态预测是设定三种基准情形下不同经济增长率以及其他各项因素不同的增长率进行预测,其中的三种基准情形的设定主要还是对于各个解释变量的增长率进行一个设定,具体为乐观、基准和悲观三种速度进行划分。反映未来能源发展变化的一个可能变化趋势,需要说明的是本文的预测不是提供对于未来精准的经济发展与二氧化碳排放量的预测,而是为了能够大致上反映未来经济增长和发展的基本因素。结果发现2020年安徽省CO2排放总量在乐观情形下的二氧化碳排放是达到6亿吨、基准情型下达到9.3亿吨和悲观情型下达到12.5亿吨。动态预测是通过蒙特卡洛模拟法对于未来十年安徽省的二氧化碳排放量进行概率的预测分析。该方法主要目的是突破静态预测中的局限性,预测出安徽省未来10年二氧化碳排放增长率的概率出现最大的可能在1.6%—2%之间。
(4)最后根据上述分析结果,并结合安徽省的具体经济发展情况有针对性地提出了节能减排的政策建议和措施,主要是从企业、政府、市场和居民四个方面对于低碳经济模式的构建进行探讨,其中企业方面降低二氧化碳排放强度、政府打造低碳经济的财政税收措施、市场发挥基础性的调节作用,居民建立低碳意识。为我国贸易与环境的协调发展提供一些可行性建议。
With the accelerated process of economic globalization, environmental problems are gradually evolved into a global problem. Huge energy consumption, high pollution industries, especially cross-border transfer of greenhouse gas emissions increasing year by year has attracted wide attention from international academic circles. Global climate change is the most significant environmental problems facing the twenty-first century, the most significant global challenges.Present as an international carbon emissions and incremental are the largest countries, China is facing international pressure increased. Anhui province as an energy source province, economic growth in the rapidly development based on characteristics of the energy needs of coal as the main energy sources, coupled with the concept of industrial structure and consumption of the reasons people in Anhui province's greenhouse gas emissions year by year. The low-carbon economy requires to reduce emissions, for such a contradiction, carbon in Anhui Province and economic development analysis of the relationship between the analyzed factors that affect the carbon emissions for a reasonable strategy for carbon reduction theoretical guidance.
The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) First, analysis the relationship between carbon emissions and economic in Anhui Province to find the environmental Kuznets curve. The results showed that the environmental Kuznets curve in Anhui Province is a rising trend, as the specific shape of an inverted "U"-type of the left part, that the environmental Kuznets curve in Anhui Province has not reached the theoretical value of the inflection point. That means emissions of carbon in Anhui Province is still show an increasing trend.
(2) Kaya identities for greenhouse emissions in Anhui Province decomposition, generally divided into the energy consumption carbon intensity, energy intensity, per capita GDP and the total population. Analysis of the four factors as the total amount of Anhui Province, the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and found that the carbon intensity of energy consumption in Anhui Province and the energy intensity and carbon dioxide emissions is most closely related, the two indicators for each one percent change, respectively, will lead to carbon dioxide 0.905 change in total emissions in the same direction, and 0.941 percentage points. GDP per capita and total population change of one percentage point each, respectively, total carbon dioxide emissions will cause changes in the same direction, 0.725 and 0.356 percentage points.
(3) Then, predict the Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020 emissions of greenhouse gases.Static prediction of which is set three different growth rates under the baseline scenario and other factors to predict different growth rates, in which case the set of three reference mainly to the growth rate of the various explanatory variables for a set specifically as optimistic and pessimistic benchmark speed by three. Reflect changes in future energy development as a possible trend should be noted that this forecast is not to provide for future economic development of accurate forecasts and carbon dioxide emissions, but to be able to broadly reflect the future economic growth and development of the underlying factors.
The results showed that CO2 emissions in 2020 in Anhui Province under the optimistic scenario is to reach 600 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions, the benchmark model under conditions of 9.3 million tons and 12.5 under the pessimistic type situation million tons.Dynamic Prediction by Monte Carlo simulation method for the next decade, emissions of carbon in Anhui Province probability forecast. The main purpose of this method is to break through the limitations of static prediction, forecast the next 10 years in Anhui Province the probability of growth in carbon emissions most likely occur in between 1.6% -2%.
(4) Finally, based on the above results, combined with the specific economic development in Anhui Province has put forward policy proposals on energy saving and emission reduction measures, primarily from business, government, markets, and residents of low-carbon economy for the four model to explore the construction, which reduce carbon emissions intensity of enterprises, government tax revenue to build a low carbon economy measures, the market play a fundamental role in the regulation, the residents build a low carbon awareness. China's trade and environment for the harmonious development of some feasible suggestions.
(1)首先对于安徽省的二氧化碳排放量与经济增长之间的关系进行分析,探寻二者之间的环境库兹涅茨曲线。结果表明安徽省的环境库兹涅茨曲线是呈上升趋势的,具体形状是倒“U”型的左半部分,也就是说安徽省的环境库兹涅茨曲线还没有达到理论值的拐点。这就意味着安徽省的二氧化碳排放量每年仍然是呈递增的态势的。
(2)通过kaya恒等式对于安徽省的温室气体排放量进行分解,大致上分为能源消费碳强度、能源强度、人均GDP和总人口数四个因素。分析四个因素对于安徽省的二氧化碳排放总量的关系,结果发现安徽省的能源消费碳强度和能源强度与二氧化碳排放量的关系最为密切,两个指标每变动百分之一,分别会带动二氧化碳排放总量同方向变动0.905和0.941个百分点。而人均GDP和总人口每变动一个百分点,分别会引起二氧化碳排放总量同方向变动0.725和0.356个百分点。
(3)然后,本文对于安徽省2011年至2020年的温室气体排放量进行了静态预测与动态预测。其中静态预测是设定三种基准情形下不同经济增长率以及其他各项因素不同的增长率进行预测,其中的三种基准情形的设定主要还是对于各个解释变量的增长率进行一个设定,具体为乐观、基准和悲观三种速度进行划分。反映未来能源发展变化的一个可能变化趋势,需要说明的是本文的预测不是提供对于未来精准的经济发展与二氧化碳排放量的预测,而是为了能够大致上反映未来经济增长和发展的基本因素。结果发现2020年安徽省CO2排放总量在乐观情形下的二氧化碳排放是达到6亿吨、基准情型下达到9.3亿吨和悲观情型下达到12.5亿吨。动态预测是通过蒙特卡洛模拟法对于未来十年安徽省的二氧化碳排放量进行概率的预测分析。该方法主要目的是突破静态预测中的局限性,预测出安徽省未来10年二氧化碳排放增长率的概率出现最大的可能在1.6%—2%之间。
(4)最后根据上述分析结果,并结合安徽省的具体经济发展情况有针对性地提出了节能减排的政策建议和措施,主要是从企业、政府、市场和居民四个方面对于低碳经济模式的构建进行探讨,其中企业方面降低二氧化碳排放强度、政府打造低碳经济的财政税收措施、市场发挥基础性的调节作用,居民建立低碳意识。为我国贸易与环境的协调发展提供一些可行性建议。
With the accelerated process of economic globalization, environmental problems are gradually evolved into a global problem. Huge energy consumption, high pollution industries, especially cross-border transfer of greenhouse gas emissions increasing year by year has attracted wide attention from international academic circles. Global climate change is the most significant environmental problems facing the twenty-first century, the most significant global challenges.Present as an international carbon emissions and incremental are the largest countries, China is facing international pressure increased. Anhui province as an energy source province, economic growth in the rapidly development based on characteristics of the energy needs of coal as the main energy sources, coupled with the concept of industrial structure and consumption of the reasons people in Anhui province's greenhouse gas emissions year by year. The low-carbon economy requires to reduce emissions, for such a contradiction, carbon in Anhui Province and economic development analysis of the relationship between the analyzed factors that affect the carbon emissions for a reasonable strategy for carbon reduction theoretical guidance.
The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) First, analysis the relationship between carbon emissions and economic in Anhui Province to find the environmental Kuznets curve. The results showed that the environmental Kuznets curve in Anhui Province is a rising trend, as the specific shape of an inverted "U"-type of the left part, that the environmental Kuznets curve in Anhui Province has not reached the theoretical value of the inflection point. That means emissions of carbon in Anhui Province is still show an increasing trend.
(2) Kaya identities for greenhouse emissions in Anhui Province decomposition, generally divided into the energy consumption carbon intensity, energy intensity, per capita GDP and the total population. Analysis of the four factors as the total amount of Anhui Province, the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and found that the carbon intensity of energy consumption in Anhui Province and the energy intensity and carbon dioxide emissions is most closely related, the two indicators for each one percent change, respectively, will lead to carbon dioxide 0.905 change in total emissions in the same direction, and 0.941 percentage points. GDP per capita and total population change of one percentage point each, respectively, total carbon dioxide emissions will cause changes in the same direction, 0.725 and 0.356 percentage points.
(3) Then, predict the Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020 emissions of greenhouse gases.Static prediction of which is set three different growth rates under the baseline scenario and other factors to predict different growth rates, in which case the set of three reference mainly to the growth rate of the various explanatory variables for a set specifically as optimistic and pessimistic benchmark speed by three. Reflect changes in future energy development as a possible trend should be noted that this forecast is not to provide for future economic development of accurate forecasts and carbon dioxide emissions, but to be able to broadly reflect the future economic growth and development of the underlying factors.
The results showed that CO2 emissions in 2020 in Anhui Province under the optimistic scenario is to reach 600 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions, the benchmark model under conditions of 9.3 million tons and 12.5 under the pessimistic type situation million tons.Dynamic Prediction by Monte Carlo simulation method for the next decade, emissions of carbon in Anhui Province probability forecast. The main purpose of this method is to break through the limitations of static prediction, forecast the next 10 years in Anhui Province the probability of growth in carbon emissions most likely occur in between 1.6% -2%.
(4) Finally, based on the above results, combined with the specific economic development in Anhui Province has put forward policy proposals on energy saving and emission reduction measures, primarily from business, government, markets, and residents of low-carbon economy for the four model to explore the construction, which reduce carbon emissions intensity of enterprises, government tax revenue to build a low carbon economy measures, the market play a fundamental role in the regulation, the residents build a low carbon awareness. China's trade and environment for the harmonious development of some feasible suggestions.
引文
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