基于隐含碳分析的山东省工业品出口结构调整研究
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摘要
以全球气候变暖为特征的全球气候变化成为21世纪人类共同面临的环境和发展问题,它威胁到人类社会的可持续发展。一直以来,我们发现只有从根本上摆脱对化石燃料的依赖,实现生产和消费方式的低碳转型,才能够真正的解决气候变化问题。因此,探索低碳贸易发展之路成为各国必然的选择。
我国是一个能源消耗大国,并即将成为世界上最大的二氧化碳排放国,面临着巨大的减排压力。同时,我国又是世界第二贸易大国,对外贸易依存度高,而我国又正处于工业化和城市化发展阶段,正面临着快速经济增长要求、技术水平落后及较大的就业压力等问题,这些问题会严重阻碍低碳贸易的发展。
山东省也是我国的出口大省,通过出口赢得了大量的外汇,但出口产品中隐藏了大量的隐含能源。这部分产品的出口是以微利为代价的,消耗了大量的资源,排放了大量的CO2以及其他污染物。大量的碳排放使中国在国际事务中处于不利地位。本文主要通过分析山东省24行业出口隐含碳排放情况及其影响因素,对山东省出口结构如何实现低碳转型提出了建议。
本文共分为六章。
第一章,绪论。主要包括选题的背景及意义、国内外研究现状、论文的结构安排等几个组成部分。
第二章,探索发展低碳贸易道路的理论支持。首先介绍了发展低碳贸易的相关概念；然后阐述了与低碳贸易相关的理论,包括可持续发展理论、外部性理论、“污染天堂”假说、碳循环理论和环境库兹涅茨曲线。
第三章,对山东省出口贸易碳排放量进行测度,并分析了碳排放量的影响因素。采用投入产出法,计算出了山东省出口贸易中的碳排放总量,发现山东省碳排放总量中有相当一部分是通过产品出口的形式为国外消费者承担的。接着对山东省碳排放的影响因素进行了分析,通过运用单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果分析等方法对山东省1984-2010年出口贸易碳排放总量与出口贸易额、GDP和能源消耗量之间的因果关系进行了实证研究。
第四章,对碳关税如何影响山东省出口贸易进行模拟研究。分析了中国被征收碳关税的可能性,碳关税的合法性、合理性及可行性,以及碳关税对山东省出口部门的经济影响。
第五章,对山东省出口结构低碳转型所面临的严重挑战和机遇进行了分析。面临的挑战有：能源问题、环境问题、经济与技术问题和制度问题。而有利条件包括：良好的经济社会文化环境、储量丰富的清洁能源、优越的地域位置和“黄三角”的带动作用、国内政策的支持、清洁发展机制的推动作用。
第六章,对山东省出口结构的低碳转型提出了对策建议。政策建议主要针对前文提出的挑战,包括能源方面、经济结构方面、金融方面、技术方面和制度观念支持方面。
Coming into the 21st century, global climate change with the characteristic of global warming is becoming the problems of environment and development which human is facing, and it threatens the sustainable development of the human society. For a long time, we found that in order to solve the problem of climate change truly we must get rid of the reliance on fossil fuels fundamentally, and realize the transformation to the production and consumption of low carbon way. Therefore, exploring low carbon trade development become the inevitable choice of all countries
China has big energy consumption and soon will be the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide, facing great pressure of reducing carbon dioxide. At the same time, China is the second largest trading country in the world, with high dependence on foreign trade, and our country is in the process of industrialization and urbanization, facing the problems of rapid economic growth requirements, backward technical level and increasing employment pressure which will seriously hinder the development of low carbon trading.
Shandong province is also a large exporter in our country, earning a large number of foreign exchange by exporting products, while the export products hide in a large number of implied energy. These exporting products earn small profit, use a lot of resources, and emit a lot of CO2 and other pollutants. Large amounts of carbon emissions make China at a disadvantage status in international affairs. This paper mainly analyze the export embedded carbon emissions of 24 industries and the influencing factors of carbon emissions in Shandong province, so that put forward some suggestions about how to realize the export structure turning to low carbon.
This article is divided into six chapters.
The first chapter, introduction. Major topics include the background and significance of the paper, the research present situation of both domestic and abroad, the structure arrangement of this paper and so on.
The second chapter, explain the basic theory for development of low carbon trade. Firstly, this paper introduces the related concepts of developing the low carbon trade; and then expounds the related theories of low carbon trade, including the sustainable development theory, externality theory, "pollution heaven" hypothesis, carbon cycle theory and environmental Kuznets curve watts.
The third chapter, measure carbon emissions of export trade in Shandong province and analyze the factors of affecting carbon emissions. This chapter calculates the total carbon emissions of export trade in Shandong province using the input and output method, finding that there are a large number of carbon emissions products bearing for foreign consumers in the form of product exports. Then this chapter analyzes the factors affecting carbon emissions in Shandong province. Using the methods of unit root test, co-integration test and Granger causality analysis, this article do the empirical research of the relationship among the total carbon emissions, export trade, GDP and energy consumption in Shandong province from 1984-2010.
The fourth chapter, analyze the impact of carbon tariff. This chapter analyzes the possibility of China to be imposed carbon tariffs, the legitimacy, rationality and feasibility of the carbon tariffs, and the economic impact of carbon tariffs on Shandong export department.
The fifth chapter, the export structure of Shandong province turning to low carbon faces serious challenges and various opportunities. The challenges includes: the energy problem, environmental issues, economic and technical problems and the system problem. And favorable conditions includes:good economic, social and cultural environment, rich clean energy, the superior geographical position and the "yellow triangle" impetus function, domestic policy support, and the driving role of the clean development mechanism.
The sixth chapter, this article proposes countermeasures about turning export structure of Shandong province to low carbon. According to the above challenges, the recommending policy includes:energy, economic structure, financial, technical support and support from system and ideas.
我国是一个能源消耗大国,并即将成为世界上最大的二氧化碳排放国,面临着巨大的减排压力。同时,我国又是世界第二贸易大国,对外贸易依存度高,而我国又正处于工业化和城市化发展阶段,正面临着快速经济增长要求、技术水平落后及较大的就业压力等问题,这些问题会严重阻碍低碳贸易的发展。
山东省也是我国的出口大省,通过出口赢得了大量的外汇,但出口产品中隐藏了大量的隐含能源。这部分产品的出口是以微利为代价的,消耗了大量的资源,排放了大量的CO2以及其他污染物。大量的碳排放使中国在国际事务中处于不利地位。本文主要通过分析山东省24行业出口隐含碳排放情况及其影响因素,对山东省出口结构如何实现低碳转型提出了建议。
本文共分为六章。
第一章,绪论。主要包括选题的背景及意义、国内外研究现状、论文的结构安排等几个组成部分。
第二章,探索发展低碳贸易道路的理论支持。首先介绍了发展低碳贸易的相关概念；然后阐述了与低碳贸易相关的理论,包括可持续发展理论、外部性理论、“污染天堂”假说、碳循环理论和环境库兹涅茨曲线。
第三章,对山东省出口贸易碳排放量进行测度,并分析了碳排放量的影响因素。采用投入产出法,计算出了山东省出口贸易中的碳排放总量,发现山东省碳排放总量中有相当一部分是通过产品出口的形式为国外消费者承担的。接着对山东省碳排放的影响因素进行了分析,通过运用单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果分析等方法对山东省1984-2010年出口贸易碳排放总量与出口贸易额、GDP和能源消耗量之间的因果关系进行了实证研究。
第四章,对碳关税如何影响山东省出口贸易进行模拟研究。分析了中国被征收碳关税的可能性,碳关税的合法性、合理性及可行性,以及碳关税对山东省出口部门的经济影响。
第五章,对山东省出口结构低碳转型所面临的严重挑战和机遇进行了分析。面临的挑战有：能源问题、环境问题、经济与技术问题和制度问题。而有利条件包括：良好的经济社会文化环境、储量丰富的清洁能源、优越的地域位置和“黄三角”的带动作用、国内政策的支持、清洁发展机制的推动作用。
第六章,对山东省出口结构的低碳转型提出了对策建议。政策建议主要针对前文提出的挑战,包括能源方面、经济结构方面、金融方面、技术方面和制度观念支持方面。
Coming into the 21st century, global climate change with the characteristic of global warming is becoming the problems of environment and development which human is facing, and it threatens the sustainable development of the human society. For a long time, we found that in order to solve the problem of climate change truly we must get rid of the reliance on fossil fuels fundamentally, and realize the transformation to the production and consumption of low carbon way. Therefore, exploring low carbon trade development become the inevitable choice of all countries
China has big energy consumption and soon will be the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide, facing great pressure of reducing carbon dioxide. At the same time, China is the second largest trading country in the world, with high dependence on foreign trade, and our country is in the process of industrialization and urbanization, facing the problems of rapid economic growth requirements, backward technical level and increasing employment pressure which will seriously hinder the development of low carbon trading.
Shandong province is also a large exporter in our country, earning a large number of foreign exchange by exporting products, while the export products hide in a large number of implied energy. These exporting products earn small profit, use a lot of resources, and emit a lot of CO2 and other pollutants. Large amounts of carbon emissions make China at a disadvantage status in international affairs. This paper mainly analyze the export embedded carbon emissions of 24 industries and the influencing factors of carbon emissions in Shandong province, so that put forward some suggestions about how to realize the export structure turning to low carbon.
This article is divided into six chapters.
The first chapter, introduction. Major topics include the background and significance of the paper, the research present situation of both domestic and abroad, the structure arrangement of this paper and so on.
The second chapter, explain the basic theory for development of low carbon trade. Firstly, this paper introduces the related concepts of developing the low carbon trade; and then expounds the related theories of low carbon trade, including the sustainable development theory, externality theory, "pollution heaven" hypothesis, carbon cycle theory and environmental Kuznets curve watts.
The third chapter, measure carbon emissions of export trade in Shandong province and analyze the factors of affecting carbon emissions. This chapter calculates the total carbon emissions of export trade in Shandong province using the input and output method, finding that there are a large number of carbon emissions products bearing for foreign consumers in the form of product exports. Then this chapter analyzes the factors affecting carbon emissions in Shandong province. Using the methods of unit root test, co-integration test and Granger causality analysis, this article do the empirical research of the relationship among the total carbon emissions, export trade, GDP and energy consumption in Shandong province from 1984-2010.
The fourth chapter, analyze the impact of carbon tariff. This chapter analyzes the possibility of China to be imposed carbon tariffs, the legitimacy, rationality and feasibility of the carbon tariffs, and the economic impact of carbon tariffs on Shandong export department.
The fifth chapter, the export structure of Shandong province turning to low carbon faces serious challenges and various opportunities. The challenges includes: the energy problem, environmental issues, economic and technical problems and the system problem. And favorable conditions includes:good economic, social and cultural environment, rich clean energy, the superior geographical position and the "yellow triangle" impetus function, domestic policy support, and the driving role of the clean development mechanism.
The sixth chapter, this article proposes countermeasures about turning export structure of Shandong province to low carbon. According to the above challenges, the recommending policy includes:energy, economic structure, financial, technical support and support from system and ideas.
引文
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[2]莱斯特·R·布朗.生态经济革命—拯救地球和经济的五大步骤[M].台湾：扬智文化事业股份有限公司,1999：138
[3]莱斯特·R·布朗.生态经济：有利于地球的经济构想[M].台湾：东方出版社,2002：65
[4]UK Energy White Paper,Our Energy Future:Creating a Low Carbon Society.Feb,2003
[5]Nicholas Stern.The Economics of Climate Change:The Stern Review.CambridgeUniversityPress,UK.2007
[6]Mongeli I, Tassielli G,Notarnicola B.Global warming agreements,international trade and energy/carbon embodiments:An input-output approach to Italian case[J].Energy Policy,2002,34(1):88-100
[7]Kurt Kratena,Ina Meyer.CO2 Emissions Embodied in Austrain International Trade [J].FIW Research Reports,2009(10):1-24
[8]Kakali M.Impact of liberalized trade on energy use and environment in India[J].J Env Ecol Manag,2004,1(1):75-104
[9]Ahmad, N, Wyckoff, AW, Carbon Dioxide Emissions Embodied in International TradeofGoods[R]。.STI Working Paper DSTI/DOC, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Paris, Franee,2003, (15)
[10]Shui B, Harriss RC.The role of CO2 embodiment in US-China trade[J], Energy Policy,2006, (34):4063-4068
[11]Youli,Hewitt.The effect of trade between China and the UK on national and global carbon dioxide emission [J].Energy Policy,2008.36(6):1907-1914
[12]Kahrl F,Roland-Holst D.Energy and exports in China[J]. China Economic Review,2008,19(4):649-658
[13]Schaeffer,R,Sa,AL.The Embodiment of Carbon Associated with Brazilian Imports and Exports [J].Energy Conversion and Management,1996,37,(6-8):955-960
[14]BordoffJ.E.,TheThreattoFreeTrade Posed by Climate Change Policy.Remarks to the Geneva Trade and Development Forum,September 19,2008,CransMontana,Switzerland
[15]Mckibbin W.J.and Wilcoxen P.J.,The Economic and Environmental Effects of Border Tax Adjustments for Climate Change [J].unpublished paper,The Brookings Institution,2008
[16]张政航.低碳经济趋势及我国的应对策略[J].经济观察,2010,6：17-18
[17]姚德文.低碳经济模式下的产业发展新路径[J].当代论坛,2009,12：6-7
[18]王中英,王礼茂.中国经济增长对碳排放的影响分析[J].安全与环境学报,2006,6(5)：88-91
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