高速公路经济适应性理论与评价方法研究
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摘要
我国经济社会快速发展过程中,在运输需求不断增长,综合交通体系建设不断推进,交通现代化程度日益提高的背景下,交通运输与社会经济发展的相互关系及其作用方式发生了巨大变化。本文所研究的高速公路的经济适应性,正是现代化交通设施规划建设及运营管理发展过程中产生的,如何正确处理交通与经济相互关系的共性理论问题。它是经济与交通系统的一种自组织、自适应现象,是复合系统要素之间相互协调、相互作用的关系,以及由此引起的适应性调整与自组织演化发展过程。从规划、建设到运营管理的发展全过程,在宏观层面上,对高速公路经济适应性问题开展系统、深入地研究,探讨高速公路发展的深层次规律和理论问题,对于完善交通运输管理理论以及运输经济学相关领域的研究具有积极影响,对于合理地制定交通发展战略规划及管理决策具有重要意义。
本文研究的主要内容及取得的研究结论如下:
基于系统论思想建立了高速公路经济适应性系统分析的理论基础框架。从交通经济系统分析的角度,深化完善了高速公路经济适应性的学术概念,对其内涵及特点进行了深入分析,研究了高速公路经济适应性的系统特征、影响因素、自组织演化规律及发展机制,提出了较为完整的高速公路经济适应性系统分析理论基础框架。
研究了在规划建设阶段,我国高速公路与经济系统适应性演化发展的主要机制与特征。深入分析了目前我国高速公路规划在理念、目标、技术方法等方面存在的主要问题,探讨了长期以来高速公路规划建设与社会经济发展不协调、不适应的根源所在;提出了在规划建设阶段,高速公路与区域经济适应性演化过程中,存在着动态演化性、协同演化性、交替拉动与前导性和反馈控制性等系统基本特征;并从规模、结构、布局三个层面,提出了全面、系统地对区域高速公路与经济适应性演化发展过程中的阶段性、区域性和结构性特征进行分析与评价的研究思路。
研究了高速公路规划建设的规模适应性、布局适应性及结构适应性的分析与评价方法。在规模适应性研究中,从运输供需均衡及成本效益最大化的角度出发,采用双层规划方法,建立了基于经济适应性的区域高速公路合理规模预测模型,并运用了粒子群算法求解。对高速公路布局的适应性特点进行了深入分析,建立了基于引力模型的高速公路网络拓扑结构布局评价模型,并运用了交互式算法对该多目标规划模型求解。在结构适应性研究中,采用Logistic模型,对交通运输结构适应性演化中高速公路的自组织机制及发展特点进行了深入分析。同时,分别通过实证研究,验证了以上模型和方法的有效性和合理性。
建立了高速公路管理与经营的经济适应性分析与评价体系。对如何协调高速公路公益性与经营性目标问题进行了探讨;从管理制度的适应性、管理模式适应性、管理技术适应性、经营模式适应性以及收费的适应性5个方面,建立了高速公路管理与经营的经济适应性分析与评价体系;同时,应用数据包络分析方法,对我国目前几种典型高速公路管理与经营模式的效率进行了分析和评价;最后,提出了适应我国社会经济特点和高速公路建设发展现状的管理与经营优化模式。
建立了适应性定量分析仿真模型,实现了对区域高速公路经济适应性的分析、预测和评价。提出了“高速公路经济适应度”的概念及测算方法;建立了基于CAS理论的高速公路经济适应性仿真模型,通过对“高速公路一经济”复合系统发展演化的适应性机制的模拟,开发了区域高速公路经济适应性仿真分析系统,对区域高速公路经济适应性进行评价;并以我国中部地区某城市圈为仿真评价对象,对该区域高速公路经济适应度进行了测算、预测与评价,结果较为科学合理,表明模型具有一定的创新性和实用性。
With the rapid development of economy and society in China, traffic modernization has been dramatically increased and the construction of integrated transport system has been tremendously improvd in the past few years. Under the background of increasing transportation demand, the relationship between transportation and economy, consequently, has been greatly changed. Economic adaptability of expressway focused in this dissertation is exactly existed in the process of traffic infrastructure construction and operation management. It is a kind of self-organization and adaption phenomenon which presents the coordination and interaction between complex systematic elements, and the course of adaptive regulation and evolution. And this dissertation made a further and systematical study on the economic adaptability of expressway from macroscopic view, and deeply analyzed the law and theory of expressway development in the complete process of planning, construction and operation management, aiming at providing reference for proposing reasonable transportation planning strategies and decision-making. Furthermore, this study has a positive and significant influence on the improvement of transportation management theory and transport economics related study.
The main contents and related conclusion are listed as follows:
Theoretical framework of the economic adaptability of expressway has been established based on the system theory. This paper consummated the academic definition of economic adaptability of expressway by analyzing its notation and hierarchy from the perspective of transport economic system and different disciplines. The characteristics, influenced factors, self-organization evolution and development mechanism of expressway economic adaptability have been given. In addition, the more complete study framework of expressway economic adaptability theory has been presented.
The mechanisms and characteristics of economic adaptability of expressway in China have been studied. This paper analyzed the main problem existed in current theory, goal, and technical methods of expressway planning, discussed the roots of maladjustment and inconsistency between expressway planning & construction and economic development in the long term, presented the dynamic evolution, co-evolution, interactive pulling and leading feature and feedback control, etc in this period. And also, the paper put forward the study ideas of analyzing and evaluating the phased, regional and structural characteristics of the economic adaptability of expressway in the process of regional expressway and economic development from the point of view of scale, structure and layout.
The methods of evaluating the expressway planning and construction adaptability from scale, layout and structure have been studied.
1) On the study of scale adaptability, by using bi-level programming model, the paper set up a prediction model of the reasonable scale of regional expressway based on the economic adaptability;
2) After the analysis of economic adaptability of expressway layout, developed the expressway network topology layout evaluation method based on the gravity model;
3) On the study of structure adaptability, by using Logistic model the paper analyzed the features of expressway development in the process of transport structure adaptability evolution and empirical study, and verified the effectiveness and accuracy of the above models.
The analysis and evaluation system of economic adaptability of expressway management and operation has been presented. This paper discussed the problems of how to coordinate the public welfare and the profit of expressway, established a complete system to analyze and evaluate economic adaptability of expressway management and operation from five aspects of adaptabilities such as management institution, mode, technology, business mode and toll collection. Meanwhile, the effect of several typical expressway management and business modes in China has been compared and evaluated using DEA method. Finally, this paper explored a novel approach to present not only the management and operation optimization mode adapted to economic characteristics but the expressway development as well in China.
The analysis, prediction and evaluation of expressway economic adaptability have been implemented through simulation model. This paper proposed the conception and calculating methods of "expressway economic adaptation degree", set up the simulation model based on CAS theory. By simulating the adaptability evolution mechanism of "expressway-economy" composite system, simulation system applied to analyze and evaluate regional expressway economic adaptability has been developed. Taking a metropolitan area in the central part of China for example, this paper predicted and evaluated the expressway economic adaptation degree. The results are more reasonable and accurate indicating feasibility and creativity.
本文研究的主要内容及取得的研究结论如下:
基于系统论思想建立了高速公路经济适应性系统分析的理论基础框架。从交通经济系统分析的角度,深化完善了高速公路经济适应性的学术概念,对其内涵及特点进行了深入分析,研究了高速公路经济适应性的系统特征、影响因素、自组织演化规律及发展机制,提出了较为完整的高速公路经济适应性系统分析理论基础框架。
研究了在规划建设阶段,我国高速公路与经济系统适应性演化发展的主要机制与特征。深入分析了目前我国高速公路规划在理念、目标、技术方法等方面存在的主要问题,探讨了长期以来高速公路规划建设与社会经济发展不协调、不适应的根源所在;提出了在规划建设阶段,高速公路与区域经济适应性演化过程中,存在着动态演化性、协同演化性、交替拉动与前导性和反馈控制性等系统基本特征;并从规模、结构、布局三个层面,提出了全面、系统地对区域高速公路与经济适应性演化发展过程中的阶段性、区域性和结构性特征进行分析与评价的研究思路。
研究了高速公路规划建设的规模适应性、布局适应性及结构适应性的分析与评价方法。在规模适应性研究中,从运输供需均衡及成本效益最大化的角度出发,采用双层规划方法,建立了基于经济适应性的区域高速公路合理规模预测模型,并运用了粒子群算法求解。对高速公路布局的适应性特点进行了深入分析,建立了基于引力模型的高速公路网络拓扑结构布局评价模型,并运用了交互式算法对该多目标规划模型求解。在结构适应性研究中,采用Logistic模型,对交通运输结构适应性演化中高速公路的自组织机制及发展特点进行了深入分析。同时,分别通过实证研究,验证了以上模型和方法的有效性和合理性。
建立了高速公路管理与经营的经济适应性分析与评价体系。对如何协调高速公路公益性与经营性目标问题进行了探讨;从管理制度的适应性、管理模式适应性、管理技术适应性、经营模式适应性以及收费的适应性5个方面,建立了高速公路管理与经营的经济适应性分析与评价体系;同时,应用数据包络分析方法,对我国目前几种典型高速公路管理与经营模式的效率进行了分析和评价;最后,提出了适应我国社会经济特点和高速公路建设发展现状的管理与经营优化模式。
建立了适应性定量分析仿真模型,实现了对区域高速公路经济适应性的分析、预测和评价。提出了“高速公路经济适应度”的概念及测算方法;建立了基于CAS理论的高速公路经济适应性仿真模型,通过对“高速公路一经济”复合系统发展演化的适应性机制的模拟,开发了区域高速公路经济适应性仿真分析系统,对区域高速公路经济适应性进行评价;并以我国中部地区某城市圈为仿真评价对象,对该区域高速公路经济适应度进行了测算、预测与评价,结果较为科学合理,表明模型具有一定的创新性和实用性。
With the rapid development of economy and society in China, traffic modernization has been dramatically increased and the construction of integrated transport system has been tremendously improvd in the past few years. Under the background of increasing transportation demand, the relationship between transportation and economy, consequently, has been greatly changed. Economic adaptability of expressway focused in this dissertation is exactly existed in the process of traffic infrastructure construction and operation management. It is a kind of self-organization and adaption phenomenon which presents the coordination and interaction between complex systematic elements, and the course of adaptive regulation and evolution. And this dissertation made a further and systematical study on the economic adaptability of expressway from macroscopic view, and deeply analyzed the law and theory of expressway development in the complete process of planning, construction and operation management, aiming at providing reference for proposing reasonable transportation planning strategies and decision-making. Furthermore, this study has a positive and significant influence on the improvement of transportation management theory and transport economics related study.
The main contents and related conclusion are listed as follows:
Theoretical framework of the economic adaptability of expressway has been established based on the system theory. This paper consummated the academic definition of economic adaptability of expressway by analyzing its notation and hierarchy from the perspective of transport economic system and different disciplines. The characteristics, influenced factors, self-organization evolution and development mechanism of expressway economic adaptability have been given. In addition, the more complete study framework of expressway economic adaptability theory has been presented.
The mechanisms and characteristics of economic adaptability of expressway in China have been studied. This paper analyzed the main problem existed in current theory, goal, and technical methods of expressway planning, discussed the roots of maladjustment and inconsistency between expressway planning & construction and economic development in the long term, presented the dynamic evolution, co-evolution, interactive pulling and leading feature and feedback control, etc in this period. And also, the paper put forward the study ideas of analyzing and evaluating the phased, regional and structural characteristics of the economic adaptability of expressway in the process of regional expressway and economic development from the point of view of scale, structure and layout.
The methods of evaluating the expressway planning and construction adaptability from scale, layout and structure have been studied.
1) On the study of scale adaptability, by using bi-level programming model, the paper set up a prediction model of the reasonable scale of regional expressway based on the economic adaptability;
2) After the analysis of economic adaptability of expressway layout, developed the expressway network topology layout evaluation method based on the gravity model;
3) On the study of structure adaptability, by using Logistic model the paper analyzed the features of expressway development in the process of transport structure adaptability evolution and empirical study, and verified the effectiveness and accuracy of the above models.
The analysis and evaluation system of economic adaptability of expressway management and operation has been presented. This paper discussed the problems of how to coordinate the public welfare and the profit of expressway, established a complete system to analyze and evaluate economic adaptability of expressway management and operation from five aspects of adaptabilities such as management institution, mode, technology, business mode and toll collection. Meanwhile, the effect of several typical expressway management and business modes in China has been compared and evaluated using DEA method. Finally, this paper explored a novel approach to present not only the management and operation optimization mode adapted to economic characteristics but the expressway development as well in China.
The analysis, prediction and evaluation of expressway economic adaptability have been implemented through simulation model. This paper proposed the conception and calculating methods of "expressway economic adaptation degree", set up the simulation model based on CAS theory. By simulating the adaptability evolution mechanism of "expressway-economy" composite system, simulation system applied to analyze and evaluate regional expressway economic adaptability has been developed. Taking a metropolitan area in the central part of China for example, this paper predicted and evaluated the expressway economic adaptation degree. The results are more reasonable and accurate indicating feasibility and creativity.
引文
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