四川省对外贸易和经济增长关系的实证研究
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摘要
英国新经济学派的重要代表人物罗伯逊于1937年提出“对外贸易是经济增长的发动机”的命题,寓意为对外贸易是经济增长的主要动力。该观点现在已基本被广泛接受。在对外贸易理论和经济增长理论的发展过程中,由于对外贸易与经济增长影响较为复杂,选取怎样的对外贸易模式来促进经济增长,对于各国也是各不相同的。改革开放以来,四川省的对外贸易无论从绝对数量、增量、还是出口质量、产品结构都取得了巨大的进步,为四川省国民经济的发展提供了坚实的基础,也为其他内陆省份对外贸易发展提供了宝贵的经验和良好的示范。
首先,本文从贸易促进理论、贸易折中理论和贸易阻碍理论三个角度出发分别进行理论来源、作用方向与影响机制等方面的介绍与描述对外贸易和经济增长的关系。基本肯定了对外贸易对于经济增长的正向促进作用。之后根据近年来的国际国内关于对外贸易与经济增长关系的研究文献,试图找到一条合理解释两者关系的正确方法。而后又从进口替代和出口导向两种不同的战略性贸易政策的原理,特定产业选择上进行分析,最终得出的政策结果是应该扶持那些技术外溢显著的产业以及符合增强本国企业利润、降低外国竞争者利润的产业。
正文部分我们首先从四川省基本的经济贸易指标入手进行了描述。并且按照国内与国外两方面对外贸易的地区分布分别进行描述,四川省对外贸易的开展主要是依赖于成德绵地区,这里拥有较好的发展制造业的基础、拥有便利的基础设施建设以及人才优势,因此发展成为四川经济贸易的中心。从贸易伙伴的贸易额趋势来看,大都经历了1998年以来较快发展与提高的过程,其中同美国、日本、香港贸易增长势头较猛,而同法国以及澳大利亚等国则一直保持在较低的水平。值得注意的是同印度、韩国等国贸易发展较快,为将来四川省对外贸易发展找寻到新的市场。
其次,我对于四川省对外贸易情况从企业结构、贸易方式结构和产品结构三方面进行分析。从中可以看出,近年来,四川省私营集体企业出口增速较快,具有较强的发展潜力,而进口则以外资企业和国有企业为主：企业贸易方式主要以一般贸易为主,其他贸易方式贸易额较低；贸易产品结构当中主要是以机电产品为主贸易,高新技术产品贸易为辅,农产品贸易额较低。特别需要指出的是,在2008年全球金融危机和汶川大地震的影响下,之所以四川省对外贸易额保持高速上升,贸易结构持续优化,是由于四川省对外贸易发展具有很强的自身特点,即利用特色产业发展来带动对外贸易发展,进而促进经济增长。
再次,本研究选取新古典增长模型,利用修正了的巴拉萨—费德公式进行估算。克服了通常使用的凯恩斯恒等式当中的有可能存在的一系列高估或者低估的问题。通过采用协整、Granger因果检验等定量方法研究四川省对外贸易与经济增长的关系,得出四川省对外贸易特别是出口增长对于经济增长作用明显,而进口增长则更多的通过影响就业和资本存量的递增来达到影响经济增长。在实证的基础上,本研究进一步从产业结构的角度提出发展四川省对外贸易的策略。
最后,本文运用面板数据估计计算方法对四川省对外贸易的地区分别进行定量分析。结合2003年—2008年的数据,选取四川省主要的31个贸易伙伴,进行面板回归运算,最后就对其贸易对四川省经济增长的影响方向和影响程度分别进行分析,得出了出口&进口显著、出口显著、进口显著和出口&进口都不显著四种类型国家。从中我们看到,更应该重视同发展中国家的进口与出口,而在同一些发达国家进行贸易的过程中,并非能够为四川省经济增长带来明显正向影响。
本文研究的最大特点是运用了大量对外贸易数据进行实证研究,定量分析与定性分析相结合,从贸易的影响,经济增长的影响,省内地区贸易分布、对外贸易国别分布等方面进行了较为全面的分析。本研究对每一部分都进行了详细的文献综述,并采用较为前沿的计量经济学方法,分析四川省对外贸易现状分析利弊,并在最后针对性地提出了发展四川省对外贸易的策略建议。
The most important representative of Britain's new school of economics Robertson made the proposition:"foreign trade is the engine of economic growth," in 1937. This point has been basically and widely accepted. However, In the development of foreign trade theory and economic growth theory, the influence of foreign trade and economic growth is comparatively complicated, What kind of foreign trade mode to chose comes to promote the economic growth is different for each contry. Since the reform and opening-up, foreign trade of Sichuan Province make enormous progress in absolute quantity, increment, export quality, product structure.Have not merely offered the solid foundation for improvement of development of the national economy in Sichuan Province, and develop valuable experience and good demonstration for the other foreign trade of landlocked province.First, this text will explain the relation between foreign tade and economic growth by using the next three theories:trade promote theory, trade compromise theory and trade hinder theory.The text will explain these theories form three expects:theory source, function direction and mechanism of influencing.The explanation has basically affirmed the facilitation from foreign trade to economic growth.Finally,according to the international and domestic research documents about foreign trade and economic growth in recent years,I attempt to find a correct method to explain the relation of foreign trade and economic growth.We analyze two kinds of different principles of Strategic trade policy principle--inport substitution and export orientation and selected specific industry, The final policy result should support these remarkably technical overflow industry as well as those enterprise which can strengthens our country's profit and reduce the foreign competitor strength..we first carry on the textual material from making a description on the Sichuan basic economical trade target.And I describe the textual material according to domestic and overseas the two foreign trade's local distribution, the Sichuan foreign trade's development is mainly relies on the ChengDu、MianZhu and DeYang area.Those area has the good developed manufacturing industry foundation、convenience infrastructural facilities as well as can the talented person superiority, therefore those area develop into economical trade center in Sichuan.By looking through the trade volume, we can find out that the trade partners have experienced a quick development and the enhancement process since 1998,and the trade of American, Japanese, Hong Kong rising momentum is fierce,but other contries such as France and Australia have maintained a the low level in the same field.It is noteworthy that the trade development between SiChan and those countries such as India and South Korea is very quick.,so it will be useful for developing the future new marke in SiChuan.Regarding the Sichuan foreign trade situation, I analyze from the pattern of enterprises, the type of trading structure and the product mix three. We can see, the Sichuan privately operated collective enterprise export volume speed-up was very quick in recent years,those enterprises has strong development potential, but the Foreign-funded enterprise and the State-owned business's import volume speed up by very quikly.The enterprise type of trade is Constituted by the general trade, the volume of other type of trading is mainly low.In the trade product mix is mainly the mechanical and electrical products, and the high-tech product trade is auxiliary.The declining trend of agricultural.What needs to point out especially is that, in 2008, under the influence of the world financial crisis and Wenchuan big earthquake, the reason why the Sichuan foreign trade turnover maintains the high speed rising and the trade structure optimizes continually, because the Sichuan foreign trade development has the very strong characteristic,that is by using the characteristic industrial development to promote foreign trade development, then to promote economic growth.Next, this research selects neoclassic growth model to carry on the estimate by using revised the Palestinian Lhasa-spends the formula,which has overcome the problems about a series of overestimations or the underestimate question in using Keynes identical equation.Through useing cooperates entire, and Granger causes and effects examination quantitative methods to study the Sichuan foreign trade and the economic growth relations, obtains that the Sichuan foreign trade, especially the export growth,have obvious effect on economic growth.But imports growth influences economic growth through influencing the employment and the capital storage quantity increasing. In the real diagnosis foundation, this research further proposes the strategy of developing the Sichuan foreign trade from industrial structure's angle.Finally, this article utilizes the kneading board data to estimate Sichuan foreign trade area distrubution by using quantitative analysis.Unifing 2003-2008 data and selecting the Sichuan main 31 trade partner, I carry on the kneading board to return the operation,finally carring the analysis separately on the influence of foreign trade to Sichuan economic growth's influence direction and the influence degree.Obtaining four types of country:exported & Imports, the export remarkable, the import remarkable and exports & Import not remarkable country.It is can be seen that we should pay more attention on the developing country import and export, but in the proces of carring trade with some developed countries, it can bring the obvious forward influence by no means for the Sichuan economic growth..This research's most major characteristic is utilizing the massive foreign trade data to conduct the empirical study, from trade influence, economic growth influence, the Sichuan inland area trade distribution, the Sichuan foreign trade nationality distribution the four aspect,using the quantitative analysis and the qualitative analysis at the sametime. This research has carried on the detailed literature summary of each part, using advanced econometrics method, analyzing the Sichuan foreign trade present situation, analyzing the advantages and diavantages of Sichuan foreign trade, finally develops the strategy suggestion.
首先,本文从贸易促进理论、贸易折中理论和贸易阻碍理论三个角度出发分别进行理论来源、作用方向与影响机制等方面的介绍与描述对外贸易和经济增长的关系。基本肯定了对外贸易对于经济增长的正向促进作用。之后根据近年来的国际国内关于对外贸易与经济增长关系的研究文献,试图找到一条合理解释两者关系的正确方法。而后又从进口替代和出口导向两种不同的战略性贸易政策的原理,特定产业选择上进行分析,最终得出的政策结果是应该扶持那些技术外溢显著的产业以及符合增强本国企业利润、降低外国竞争者利润的产业。
正文部分我们首先从四川省基本的经济贸易指标入手进行了描述。并且按照国内与国外两方面对外贸易的地区分布分别进行描述,四川省对外贸易的开展主要是依赖于成德绵地区,这里拥有较好的发展制造业的基础、拥有便利的基础设施建设以及人才优势,因此发展成为四川经济贸易的中心。从贸易伙伴的贸易额趋势来看,大都经历了1998年以来较快发展与提高的过程,其中同美国、日本、香港贸易增长势头较猛,而同法国以及澳大利亚等国则一直保持在较低的水平。值得注意的是同印度、韩国等国贸易发展较快,为将来四川省对外贸易发展找寻到新的市场。
其次,我对于四川省对外贸易情况从企业结构、贸易方式结构和产品结构三方面进行分析。从中可以看出,近年来,四川省私营集体企业出口增速较快,具有较强的发展潜力,而进口则以外资企业和国有企业为主：企业贸易方式主要以一般贸易为主,其他贸易方式贸易额较低；贸易产品结构当中主要是以机电产品为主贸易,高新技术产品贸易为辅,农产品贸易额较低。特别需要指出的是,在2008年全球金融危机和汶川大地震的影响下,之所以四川省对外贸易额保持高速上升,贸易结构持续优化,是由于四川省对外贸易发展具有很强的自身特点,即利用特色产业发展来带动对外贸易发展,进而促进经济增长。
再次,本研究选取新古典增长模型,利用修正了的巴拉萨—费德公式进行估算。克服了通常使用的凯恩斯恒等式当中的有可能存在的一系列高估或者低估的问题。通过采用协整、Granger因果检验等定量方法研究四川省对外贸易与经济增长的关系,得出四川省对外贸易特别是出口增长对于经济增长作用明显,而进口增长则更多的通过影响就业和资本存量的递增来达到影响经济增长。在实证的基础上,本研究进一步从产业结构的角度提出发展四川省对外贸易的策略。
最后,本文运用面板数据估计计算方法对四川省对外贸易的地区分别进行定量分析。结合2003年—2008年的数据,选取四川省主要的31个贸易伙伴,进行面板回归运算,最后就对其贸易对四川省经济增长的影响方向和影响程度分别进行分析,得出了出口&进口显著、出口显著、进口显著和出口&进口都不显著四种类型国家。从中我们看到,更应该重视同发展中国家的进口与出口,而在同一些发达国家进行贸易的过程中,并非能够为四川省经济增长带来明显正向影响。
本文研究的最大特点是运用了大量对外贸易数据进行实证研究,定量分析与定性分析相结合,从贸易的影响,经济增长的影响,省内地区贸易分布、对外贸易国别分布等方面进行了较为全面的分析。本研究对每一部分都进行了详细的文献综述,并采用较为前沿的计量经济学方法,分析四川省对外贸易现状分析利弊,并在最后针对性地提出了发展四川省对外贸易的策略建议。
The most important representative of Britain's new school of economics Robertson made the proposition:"foreign trade is the engine of economic growth," in 1937. This point has been basically and widely accepted. However, In the development of foreign trade theory and economic growth theory, the influence of foreign trade and economic growth is comparatively complicated, What kind of foreign trade mode to chose comes to promote the economic growth is different for each contry. Since the reform and opening-up, foreign trade of Sichuan Province make enormous progress in absolute quantity, increment, export quality, product structure.Have not merely offered the solid foundation for improvement of development of the national economy in Sichuan Province, and develop valuable experience and good demonstration for the other foreign trade of landlocked province.First, this text will explain the relation between foreign tade and economic growth by using the next three theories:trade promote theory, trade compromise theory and trade hinder theory.The text will explain these theories form three expects:theory source, function direction and mechanism of influencing.The explanation has basically affirmed the facilitation from foreign trade to economic growth.Finally,according to the international and domestic research documents about foreign trade and economic growth in recent years,I attempt to find a correct method to explain the relation of foreign trade and economic growth.We analyze two kinds of different principles of Strategic trade policy principle--inport substitution and export orientation and selected specific industry, The final policy result should support these remarkably technical overflow industry as well as those enterprise which can strengthens our country's profit and reduce the foreign competitor strength..we first carry on the textual material from making a description on the Sichuan basic economical trade target.And I describe the textual material according to domestic and overseas the two foreign trade's local distribution, the Sichuan foreign trade's development is mainly relies on the ChengDu、MianZhu and DeYang area.Those area has the good developed manufacturing industry foundation、convenience infrastructural facilities as well as can the talented person superiority, therefore those area develop into economical trade center in Sichuan.By looking through the trade volume, we can find out that the trade partners have experienced a quick development and the enhancement process since 1998,and the trade of American, Japanese, Hong Kong rising momentum is fierce,but other contries such as France and Australia have maintained a the low level in the same field.It is noteworthy that the trade development between SiChan and those countries such as India and South Korea is very quick.,so it will be useful for developing the future new marke in SiChuan.Regarding the Sichuan foreign trade situation, I analyze from the pattern of enterprises, the type of trading structure and the product mix three. We can see, the Sichuan privately operated collective enterprise export volume speed-up was very quick in recent years,those enterprises has strong development potential, but the Foreign-funded enterprise and the State-owned business's import volume speed up by very quikly.The enterprise type of trade is Constituted by the general trade, the volume of other type of trading is mainly low.In the trade product mix is mainly the mechanical and electrical products, and the high-tech product trade is auxiliary.The declining trend of agricultural.What needs to point out especially is that, in 2008, under the influence of the world financial crisis and Wenchuan big earthquake, the reason why the Sichuan foreign trade turnover maintains the high speed rising and the trade structure optimizes continually, because the Sichuan foreign trade development has the very strong characteristic,that is by using the characteristic industrial development to promote foreign trade development, then to promote economic growth.Next, this research selects neoclassic growth model to carry on the estimate by using revised the Palestinian Lhasa-spends the formula,which has overcome the problems about a series of overestimations or the underestimate question in using Keynes identical equation.Through useing cooperates entire, and Granger causes and effects examination quantitative methods to study the Sichuan foreign trade and the economic growth relations, obtains that the Sichuan foreign trade, especially the export growth,have obvious effect on economic growth.But imports growth influences economic growth through influencing the employment and the capital storage quantity increasing. In the real diagnosis foundation, this research further proposes the strategy of developing the Sichuan foreign trade from industrial structure's angle.Finally, this article utilizes the kneading board data to estimate Sichuan foreign trade area distrubution by using quantitative analysis.Unifing 2003-2008 data and selecting the Sichuan main 31 trade partner, I carry on the kneading board to return the operation,finally carring the analysis separately on the influence of foreign trade to Sichuan economic growth's influence direction and the influence degree.Obtaining four types of country:exported & Imports, the export remarkable, the import remarkable and exports & Import not remarkable country.It is can be seen that we should pay more attention on the developing country import and export, but in the proces of carring trade with some developed countries, it can bring the obvious forward influence by no means for the Sichuan economic growth..This research's most major characteristic is utilizing the massive foreign trade data to conduct the empirical study, from trade influence, economic growth influence, the Sichuan inland area trade distribution, the Sichuan foreign trade nationality distribution the four aspect,using the quantitative analysis and the qualitative analysis at the sametime. This research has carried on the detailed literature summary of each part, using advanced econometrics method, analyzing the Sichuan foreign trade present situation, analyzing the advantages and diavantages of Sichuan foreign trade, finally develops the strategy suggestion.
引文
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[30]奥利维尔·布兰查德,宏观经济学[M].清华大学出版社,2003年1月1版
[31]亚当·斯密,国民财富的性质和原因的研究[M].商务印书馆,1972：69
[32]大卫·李嘉图,政治经济学原理及赋税原理[M].商务印书馆,1981：83—86
[33]G.L.克拉克,M.P.费尔德曼等.牛津经济地理手册[M].商务印书馆.2005-8-1
[34]张晓峒,计量经济学软件Eviews使用指南[M].南开大学出版社,2003
[35]赵文奇,当代经济计量学中的协整理论[M].统计研究,1996,(6)
[36]潘省初,周凌瑶,计量经济分析软件一Eviews、SAS简明上机指南[M].中国人民大学出版社,20()5：89—127
[37]李子奈,叶阿忠,高等计量经济学[M].清华大学出版社,1999：93—101
[38]庞皓,李南成,计量经济学[M].西南财经大学出版社,2001,196-198
39]高铁梅,计量经济分析方法与建模一Eviews应用及实例[M].清华大学出版社2006：302—347
[40]四川城市年鉴[M].四川城市统计年鉴编辑委员会编辑出版,2007年11月
[41]四川省统计局,四川统计年鉴(各卷)[M].中国统计出版社,2001-2008
[42]World Bank, World Bank Development Report[J]. (Washington, D.C:World Bank 2008)
[43]Aghion P,Peter H, AModel of Growth Through Creative Destruction, Econometrics[J].1960, (323-351)
[44]Akaike, Statistical Predicator Identification, Annual of the Institute of StatisMathematics[J].1969, (12)
[45]Balassa B, Exports and Economic Growth:Futher Evidence, Journal of DevelopmEconomics[J].1978,5(2)
[46]Bela Balassa, Export Composition and Export Performance in the Industrial Countries,1953-71, The Review of Economics and Statistics[J].Vol,61, No, 4(Nov,1979),pp,604-607
[47]Chow, Causality between Export Growth and Industrial Development: Empirical Evidence NICS, Journal of Development Ecomocimics[J].1987,(26)
[48]Dickey D A, Unit Roots in Time Series Models Tests and Implications, American Statistic[J].1986, (40)
[49]Feder G, On Exports and Economic Growth, Journal of Development Economics[J].1983,59-73
[50]Douglas D, Purvis, Technology, Trade and Factor Mobility Author(s):The Economic Journal[J].Vol,82, No,327(Sep,1972),pp,991-999
[51]Paul R.Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld. International Economics:Theiry and Policy[M].fifth edition,2000:279
[52]Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt, A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction, Econometrica[J]. Vol,60, No,2 (Mar,1992), pp,323-351
[53]R. M.Solow. A contribution to the Theory of Economics. Quarterly Journal of Economics[J].February 1956,65-94
[54]Susan E, Feinberg and Michael P, Keane, Accounting for the Growth of MNC-Based Trade Using a Structural Model of U, S, MNCs, The American Economic Review[J].Vol,96, No,5 (Dec,2006), pp,1515-1558
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[57]美国中央情报局网站[DB/OL].https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/
[58]中经网统计数据库[DB/OL]. http://192.168.30.168:81/scorpio/aspx/main.aspx?width=1270&height=739
[59]四川历史、四川省人民政府网站[DB/OL]. http://www.sc.gov.cn/
[60]四川商务之窗[DB/OL].http://sichuan.mofcom.gov.cn/
中国学术期刊(光盘版)电子杂志社编者注：本文目录及正文中涉及香港、台湾的地方的“国外”均应为“境外”,“国家”均应为“国家(地区)”,“各国”均应为“各国(地区)”,“国别”均应为“国别(地区)”。
1 G.L.克拉克,M.P.费尔德曼 等.牛津经济地理手册.商务印书馆.2005-8-1
2 见附表,中经网http://192.168.30.168:81/scorpio/aspx/main.aspx?width=1270&height=739
3 企业以英特尔、东气、攀钢为代表,产品以成套设备、高科技芯片等为代表
4 李荣林,张岩贵.我国对外贸易与经济增长转型理论与实证研究.中国经济出版社,2001第一版,2-46.
5 R. M.Solow. A contribution to the Theory of Economics. Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 1956, 65-94
6 Paul R.Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld. International Economics:Theiry and Policy,fifth edition,2000:279
7 保罗克鲁格曼.战略性贸易政策和国际经济学。中国人民大学出版社,北京大学出版社2000年11月：100—287
8 World Bank, World Bank Development Report (Washington, D.C.:World Bank 2008)
9 Aghion P,Peter H.AModel of Growth Through Creative Destruction.Econometrics,1960, (323-351)
10 Balassa B. Exports and Economic Growth:Futher Evidence.Journal of Development. Economics,1978, 5(2):181-189
11 Feder G. On Exports and Economic Growth. Journal of Development Economics,1983, (12):59-73
12 Chow.Causality between Export Growth and Industrial Development:Empirical Evidence NICS.Journal of Development Ecomocimics,1987,(26)
13 李坤望、李平.出口与中国经济增长之间关系的实证分析.南开经济研究.1994年02期
14 李文.中国对外贸易和经济增长的协整分析.产业经济评论.2004年01期
15 尹翔硕.发展中国家出口品增长与发达国家进口平增长的实证分析.世界经济研究.2003年第4期：34.
16 杨全发.舒元.中国出口贸易对经济增长的影响.世界经济与政治,1998,(8)54-58
17 魏巍贤.中国出口增长的激励机制(Ⅱ)—实证分析.系统工程学报,1999,(14)
18 沈程翔.1980—1997：中国经济增长中的出口多样化进程与结构变迁.上海经济研究.1999,(6)
19 董秘刚.我国对外贸易与经济增长相关性分析.西北大学学报(哲社版),2000,(4)
20 许和连,赖明勇.中国进口贸易项项因索的实证分析.湖南人学学报,2002,(9)：33-35
21 林毅夫,李勇军.必要的修正—对外贸易与经济增长的关系的再考察.国际贸易,2001,(9)：22-26
22 组强.国际贸易理论与经济活动区位理论的新发展.世界经济与政治论坛.2009年1月
24 四川省商务统计资料2003——2008,四川省商务厅规划财务处汇编,2008年12月
25 商务部关于批准四川航空集团公司出口飞机发动机、惯性导航仪的批复(商产批[2006]70号).2006年6月
26 李晓峰 冷莎.1995—2006年美国对中国反倾销的实证分析.财贸研究.2007年第6期
27 张海波 乐绍延.不断发展的中日贸易.人民网.2003—02—19
28 陈冬平.对外贸易对我国经济增长作用的实证分析.国际经贸探索,2001.(6)
31 林毅夫,李勇军,必要的修正—对外贸易与经济增长的关系的再考察,国际贸易,2001,(22-26)孟庆昕,正确看待和衡量外贸对经济增长的贡献,[硕士论文]国际经济贸易学院,2006年3月
32 2008年中经统计信息网数据http://192.168.30.168:81/scorpio/aspx/main.aspx?width=1270&height=739
33 根据前图结构：阿联酋(0.6857),香港(0.5054),加拿大(0.4666),印尼(0.2829),韩国(0.2559),巴西(0.2114),伊朗(0.1424),越南(0.098)
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[9]李坤望、李平.出口与中国经济增长之间关系的实证分析[J].南开经济研究.1994年02期
[10]李文.中国对外贸易和经济增长的协整分析[J].产业经济评论.2004年01期
[11]尹翔硕.发展中国家出口品增长与发达国家进口平增长的实证分析[J].世界经济研究.2003年第4期：34.
[12]魏巍贤.中国出口增长的激励机制(Ⅱ)—实证分析[J].系统工程学报,1999,(14)
[13]沈程翔.1980—1997：中国经济增长中的出口多样化进程与结构变迁[J].上海经济研究,1999,(6)
[14]董秘刚.我国对外贸易与经济增长相关性分析[J].西北大学学报(哲社版),2000,(4)
[15]组强.国际贸易理论与经济活动区位理论的新发展[A].世界经济与政治论坛.2009年1月
[16]李晓峰冷莎.1995—2006年美国对中国反倾销的实证分析[J].财贸研究.2007年第6期
[17]张海波乐绍延.不断发展的中日贸易[J/OL].人民网.2003—02—19,http://www.people.com.cn/
[18]杨全发,舒元,中国出口贸易对经济增长的影响[J].世界经济与政治,1998,(8)
[19]吴一丁,毛克贞,我国出口贸易影响经济增长的路径研究[J].国际贸易问题2006年第2期：28-33
[20]鄢妮,陕西省出口贸易对经济增长影响的实证研究[D].西安理工大学,2008年3月
[21]贾朝旭,新疆进出口贸易和经济增长关系的实证研究[D].石河子大学,2008年6月
[22]孟庆听,正确看待和衡量外贸对经济增长的贡献[D].国际经济贸易学院,2006年3月
[23]李洁,中国出口贸易对经济增长作用的实证研究[J].世界经济研究,2003年第4期：31
[24]袁申国,中国分地区进出口贸易与经济增长关系研究[J].国际经贸探索,2006年7月第22卷,第4期：21-25
[25]李荣林,张岩贵.我国对外贸易与经济增长转型理论与实证研究[M].中国经济出版社,2001第一版,2—46.
[26]国际货币基金组织,世界经济展望[M].中国金融出版社,1997年5月,中文版,P45
[27]保罗克鲁格曼.战略性贸易政策和国际经济学[M].中国人民大学出版社,北京大学出版社2000年11月：100—287
[28]高鸿业,西方经济学[M].中国经济出版社,1996：717页
[29]陈同仇、薛荣久主编：国际贸易(1997年新编本)[M].对外经济贸易大学出版 社,1997：117—120
[30]奥利维尔·布兰查德,宏观经济学[M].清华大学出版社,2003年1月1版
[31]亚当·斯密,国民财富的性质和原因的研究[M].商务印书馆,1972：69
[32]大卫·李嘉图,政治经济学原理及赋税原理[M].商务印书馆,1981：83—86
[33]G.L.克拉克,M.P.费尔德曼等.牛津经济地理手册[M].商务印书馆.2005-8-1
[34]张晓峒,计量经济学软件Eviews使用指南[M].南开大学出版社,2003
[35]赵文奇,当代经济计量学中的协整理论[M].统计研究,1996,(6)
[36]潘省初,周凌瑶,计量经济分析软件一Eviews、SAS简明上机指南[M].中国人民大学出版社,20()5：89—127
[37]李子奈,叶阿忠,高等计量经济学[M].清华大学出版社,1999：93—101
[38]庞皓,李南成,计量经济学[M].西南财经大学出版社,2001,196-198
39]高铁梅,计量经济分析方法与建模一Eviews应用及实例[M].清华大学出版社2006：302—347
[40]四川城市年鉴[M].四川城市统计年鉴编辑委员会编辑出版,2007年11月
[41]四川省统计局,四川统计年鉴(各卷)[M].中国统计出版社,2001-2008
[42]World Bank, World Bank Development Report[J]. (Washington, D.C:World Bank 2008)
[43]Aghion P,Peter H, AModel of Growth Through Creative Destruction, Econometrics[J].1960, (323-351)
[44]Akaike, Statistical Predicator Identification, Annual of the Institute of StatisMathematics[J].1969, (12)
[45]Balassa B, Exports and Economic Growth:Futher Evidence, Journal of DevelopmEconomics[J].1978,5(2)
[46]Bela Balassa, Export Composition and Export Performance in the Industrial Countries,1953-71, The Review of Economics and Statistics[J].Vol,61, No, 4(Nov,1979),pp,604-607
[47]Chow, Causality between Export Growth and Industrial Development: Empirical Evidence NICS, Journal of Development Ecomocimics[J].1987,(26)
[48]Dickey D A, Unit Roots in Time Series Models Tests and Implications, American Statistic[J].1986, (40)
[49]Feder G, On Exports and Economic Growth, Journal of Development Economics[J].1983,59-73
[50]Douglas D, Purvis, Technology, Trade and Factor Mobility Author(s):The Economic Journal[J].Vol,82, No,327(Sep,1972),pp,991-999
[51]Paul R.Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld. International Economics:Theiry and Policy[M].fifth edition,2000:279
[52]Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt, A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction, Econometrica[J]. Vol,60, No,2 (Mar,1992), pp,323-351
[53]R. M.Solow. A contribution to the Theory of Economics. Quarterly Journal of Economics[J].February 1956,65-94
[54]Susan E, Feinberg and Michael P, Keane, Accounting for the Growth of MNC-Based Trade Using a Structural Model of U, S, MNCs, The American Economic Review[J].Vol,96, No,5 (Dec,2006), pp,1515-1558
[55]Tuvia Blumenthal, Exports and Economic Growth:The Case of Postwar Japan, The Quarterly Journal of Economics[J].Vol,86, No,4 (Nov,1972), pp,617-631
[56]Sebastian Edwards, Tariffs, Capital Controls, and Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates, The Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d Economique[J].Vol,22, No,1 (Feb,1989),pp,79-92
[57]美国中央情报局网站[DB/OL].https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/
[58]中经网统计数据库[DB/OL]. http://192.168.30.168:81/scorpio/aspx/main.aspx?width=1270&height=739
[59]四川历史、四川省人民政府网站[DB/OL]. http://www.sc.gov.cn/
[60]四川商务之窗[DB/OL].http://sichuan.mofcom.gov.cn/
中国学术期刊(光盘版)电子杂志社编者注：本文目录及正文中涉及香港、台湾的地方的“国外”均应为“境外”,“国家”均应为“国家(地区)”,“各国”均应为“各国(地区)”,“国别”均应为“国别(地区)”。
1 G.L.克拉克,M.P.费尔德曼 等.牛津经济地理手册.商务印书馆.2005-8-1
2 见附表,中经网http://192.168.30.168:81/scorpio/aspx/main.aspx?width=1270&height=739
3 企业以英特尔、东气、攀钢为代表,产品以成套设备、高科技芯片等为代表
4 李荣林,张岩贵.我国对外贸易与经济增长转型理论与实证研究.中国经济出版社,2001第一版,2-46.
5 R. M.Solow. A contribution to the Theory of Economics. Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 1956, 65-94
6 Paul R.Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld. International Economics:Theiry and Policy,fifth edition,2000:279
7 保罗克鲁格曼.战略性贸易政策和国际经济学。中国人民大学出版社,北京大学出版社2000年11月：100—287
8 World Bank, World Bank Development Report (Washington, D.C.:World Bank 2008)
9 Aghion P,Peter H.AModel of Growth Through Creative Destruction.Econometrics,1960, (323-351)
10 Balassa B. Exports and Economic Growth:Futher Evidence.Journal of Development. Economics,1978, 5(2):181-189
11 Feder G. On Exports and Economic Growth. Journal of Development Economics,1983, (12):59-73
12 Chow.Causality between Export Growth and Industrial Development:Empirical Evidence NICS.Journal of Development Ecomocimics,1987,(26)
13 李坤望、李平.出口与中国经济增长之间关系的实证分析.南开经济研究.1994年02期
14 李文.中国对外贸易和经济增长的协整分析.产业经济评论.2004年01期
15 尹翔硕.发展中国家出口品增长与发达国家进口平增长的实证分析.世界经济研究.2003年第4期：34.
16 杨全发.舒元.中国出口贸易对经济增长的影响.世界经济与政治,1998,(8)54-58
17 魏巍贤.中国出口增长的激励机制(Ⅱ)—实证分析.系统工程学报,1999,(14)
18 沈程翔.1980—1997：中国经济增长中的出口多样化进程与结构变迁.上海经济研究.1999,(6)
19 董秘刚.我国对外贸易与经济增长相关性分析.西北大学学报(哲社版),2000,(4)
20 许和连,赖明勇.中国进口贸易项项因索的实证分析.湖南人学学报,2002,(9)：33-35
21 林毅夫,李勇军.必要的修正—对外贸易与经济增长的关系的再考察.国际贸易,2001,(9)：22-26
22 组强.国际贸易理论与经济活动区位理论的新发展.世界经济与政治论坛.2009年1月
24 四川省商务统计资料2003——2008,四川省商务厅规划财务处汇编,2008年12月
25 商务部关于批准四川航空集团公司出口飞机发动机、惯性导航仪的批复(商产批[2006]70号).2006年6月
26 李晓峰 冷莎.1995—2006年美国对中国反倾销的实证分析.财贸研究.2007年第6期
27 张海波 乐绍延.不断发展的中日贸易.人民网.2003—02—19
28 陈冬平.对外贸易对我国经济增长作用的实证分析.国际经贸探索,2001.(6)
31 林毅夫,李勇军,必要的修正—对外贸易与经济增长的关系的再考察,国际贸易,2001,(22-26)孟庆昕,正确看待和衡量外贸对经济增长的贡献,[硕士论文]国际经济贸易学院,2006年3月
32 2008年中经统计信息网数据http://192.168.30.168:81/scorpio/aspx/main.aspx?width=1270&height=739
33 根据前图结构：阿联酋(0.6857),香港(0.5054),加拿大(0.4666),印尼(0.2829),韩国(0.2559),巴西(0.2114),伊朗(0.1424),越南(0.098)