农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响分析及评价方法研究
|
摘要
近年来国家提出了建设社会主义新农村的发展战略。新农村建设离不开基础设施建设,而农村公路是基础设施建设的重要组成部分,是促进沿线区域经济增长、加快城镇化进程的重要措施和基本保障。但由于农村公路建设欠账较多、农村公路对社会经济影响问题一直没有被纳入研究重点等历史原因,农村公路建设对沿线区域发展的影响究竟有多大,一直没有一个令人信服的评价理论和评价方法。
论文针对农村公路对沿线区域发展的影响问题开展了深入的研究工作,旨在建立一套全面适用的农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响的评价指标体系,并提出切合实际的综合评价方法,从而为评价农村公路建设对沿线区域发展的影响提供依据,也为今后的农村公路网规划及农村公路建设提供借鉴和参考。
论文首先界定了农村公路的内涵,即应包括县道、乡道、部分专用道路及村与村之间的道路,并总结了我国农村公路的发展历程。在此基础上,分析了农村公路的技术经济特点、交通供需特性、路网规划特性、建设与管理特性等,阐述了新时期我国农村公路建设面临的主要问题和新机遇,明确了新形势下区域发展对农村公路建设的要求。
然后,重点开展了农村公路建设对沿线区域经济发展、社会进步、农民生活质量提高等影响的研究。在此基础上,综合考虑全面建设小康社会指标体系、经济社会和谐发展指标体系、国民经济和社会发展效益指标体系等,提出了描述农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响的初始评价指标集合,分析了评价指标间的相关性。为了能获得一组为数较少且能反映所有初始指标整体信息的指标或其组合形式,探讨了评价指标选择方法,并最终基于因子分析法构建了由9个指标组成的农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响的综合评价指标体系。
其次,分析评价了现有综合评价模型的优缺点及适用条件,提出了农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响评价模型的要求及综合评价原则。在此基础上,提出了层次分析与模糊统计相结合的沿线区域发展综合评价方法,并基于专家调查和模糊统计原理确定了权值系数及各评价指标的隶属函数。建立了基于BP神经网络的农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响的综合评价模型,分析了模型的结构、算法和实现过程,并应用黑龙江省齐齐哈尔市富裕县、泰来县两个典型农业县的公路建设、社会经济发展数据,标定了神经网络模型的权值矩阵和偏置向量。针对现有模型单一目标产生的局限性,改进了可用于经济评价的多目标产出生产函数模型,用以评价农村公路建设对沿线区域经济发展的影响。
最后,以黑龙江省齐齐哈尔地区的富裕县、泰来县、克东县、讷河县、拜泉县、依安县、甘南县统计数据为基础,进行了实证分析。应用层次分析与模糊统计相结合的综合评价模型,确定了上述各县农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响的评价等级;应用已标定的BP神经网络,确定了农村公路建设对沿线区域发展贡献的量化结果;应用改进的多目标产出生产函数模型,定量分析了农村公路建设对齐齐哈尔地区经济增长的贡献。
本文在借鉴前人研究成果的基础上,以系统思想为指导,采用定性分析与定量分析相结合、理论研究与实证研究相结合的方法,对黑龙江省齐齐哈尔地区农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响问题开展了研究工作。这是农村公路建设对区域发展的直观反映,也是农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响效果的客观表达,它对农村公路的建设工作将起到积极的引导作用。
In recently years, our country put forward the development strategy to building the new socialist countryside. The new rural construction can not be separated from rural infrastructure construction, then rural highway construction is an important component of the infrastructure construction, as well as the important measures and basic security to promote rural economic growth and accelerate the urbanization of countryside. However, there is not a believable evaluation theory or method till now because of the reasons such as many rural highway construction debts in history, not paying enough attention to the research of rural highway construction’s impact on socio-economic development,etc.
This paper focused on the impacts of rural highway construction on local development, aimed to establish a comprehensive index system which fit for the evaluation of the impact, and put forward a practicable evaluation method. It’s hoped that the paper can provide a good reference to the impact evaluation of the rural highway construction on local development, rural highway network planning and construction.
Firstly, the paper defined the rural highway, which should include county highway, town highway and highways among villages. Based on this, the paper analized the features on the aspects of technique, economic, traffic supply and demand, highway network planning, construction, management, the main problems and opportunities of rural highway construction in new period were described, and the requirements of local development to rural highway construction were puted out.
Secondly, the paper analized detailedly the impact of rural construction on local economic development, local social development, local life quality and local sustainable development. Considering the index system of comprehensively building well-off society, economic society development, national economy and social effect, the initial evaluation index system was established, and the correlation of evaluation index was analyzed. To get a index system with indexes as few as possible and with better representivity of the whole information of initial indexes, this paper did some researches on the selection methods of evaluation index, and finally established a index system with 9 indexes based on the factor analysis.
Thirdly, the advantages, disadvantages and applicable conditions of existing comprehensive evaluation model were analyzed and evaluated, and the requests and comprehensive evaluation principles of the impact evaluation model on the rural local development from rural highway construction were proposed. So the comprehensive evaluation methods on the rural local development based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy statistics are proposed. And according to the principles of the expert investigation and fuzzy statistics, the weight coefficient and membership function of the evaluation indexes were confirmed. The comprehensive evaluation model of the rural local development from rural highway construction based on the BP neural network was proposed, and the framework, arithmetic and realization process of model was analyzed. The weight matrixes and bias vectors of neural network model were calibrated based on the data of road construction and socioeconomic development of Fuyu county and Tailai county in Qiqihar city. Based on the limitation of single target in the exciting model, the production function model of multi-objective which was used in the economic evaluation was improved to evaluate the impact on the rural local economic development from rural highway construction.
Lastly, the statistical data of Fuyu county, Tailai county, Kedong county, Nehe county, Baiquan county, Yi’an county and Gannan county were used for empirical analysis. Firstly, the comprehensive evaluation model based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy statistics was applied to ensure evaluation grades on the rural local developing import from rural highway construction of the above counties. Secondly, the calibrated BP neural network was applied to ensure the quantized result of local development contribution from rural highway construction. Lastly, the improved production function model of multi-objective was applied to quantitatively analyze the contribution of Qiqihar economical development from the rural highway construction.
In the course of the study, we learn from previous research results, take the mind of system as guidance, and make use of the method of combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the integration of standard theory and empirical research on the integration, and carry out research work, such as rural highway construction in Qiqihar of Heilongjiang impact on regional development. This paper against the topic of the features of rural highway construction in new area, carry out the qualitative and quantitative analysis on rural highway construction impact on regional development, which will play a positive guiding role in the establishment of highway network.
论文针对农村公路对沿线区域发展的影响问题开展了深入的研究工作,旨在建立一套全面适用的农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响的评价指标体系,并提出切合实际的综合评价方法,从而为评价农村公路建设对沿线区域发展的影响提供依据,也为今后的农村公路网规划及农村公路建设提供借鉴和参考。
论文首先界定了农村公路的内涵,即应包括县道、乡道、部分专用道路及村与村之间的道路,并总结了我国农村公路的发展历程。在此基础上,分析了农村公路的技术经济特点、交通供需特性、路网规划特性、建设与管理特性等,阐述了新时期我国农村公路建设面临的主要问题和新机遇,明确了新形势下区域发展对农村公路建设的要求。
然后,重点开展了农村公路建设对沿线区域经济发展、社会进步、农民生活质量提高等影响的研究。在此基础上,综合考虑全面建设小康社会指标体系、经济社会和谐发展指标体系、国民经济和社会发展效益指标体系等,提出了描述农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响的初始评价指标集合,分析了评价指标间的相关性。为了能获得一组为数较少且能反映所有初始指标整体信息的指标或其组合形式,探讨了评价指标选择方法,并最终基于因子分析法构建了由9个指标组成的农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响的综合评价指标体系。
其次,分析评价了现有综合评价模型的优缺点及适用条件,提出了农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响评价模型的要求及综合评价原则。在此基础上,提出了层次分析与模糊统计相结合的沿线区域发展综合评价方法,并基于专家调查和模糊统计原理确定了权值系数及各评价指标的隶属函数。建立了基于BP神经网络的农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响的综合评价模型,分析了模型的结构、算法和实现过程,并应用黑龙江省齐齐哈尔市富裕县、泰来县两个典型农业县的公路建设、社会经济发展数据,标定了神经网络模型的权值矩阵和偏置向量。针对现有模型单一目标产生的局限性,改进了可用于经济评价的多目标产出生产函数模型,用以评价农村公路建设对沿线区域经济发展的影响。
最后,以黑龙江省齐齐哈尔地区的富裕县、泰来县、克东县、讷河县、拜泉县、依安县、甘南县统计数据为基础,进行了实证分析。应用层次分析与模糊统计相结合的综合评价模型,确定了上述各县农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响的评价等级;应用已标定的BP神经网络,确定了农村公路建设对沿线区域发展贡献的量化结果;应用改进的多目标产出生产函数模型,定量分析了农村公路建设对齐齐哈尔地区经济增长的贡献。
本文在借鉴前人研究成果的基础上,以系统思想为指导,采用定性分析与定量分析相结合、理论研究与实证研究相结合的方法,对黑龙江省齐齐哈尔地区农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响问题开展了研究工作。这是农村公路建设对区域发展的直观反映,也是农村公路建设对沿线区域发展影响效果的客观表达,它对农村公路的建设工作将起到积极的引导作用。
In recently years, our country put forward the development strategy to building the new socialist countryside. The new rural construction can not be separated from rural infrastructure construction, then rural highway construction is an important component of the infrastructure construction, as well as the important measures and basic security to promote rural economic growth and accelerate the urbanization of countryside. However, there is not a believable evaluation theory or method till now because of the reasons such as many rural highway construction debts in history, not paying enough attention to the research of rural highway construction’s impact on socio-economic development,etc.
This paper focused on the impacts of rural highway construction on local development, aimed to establish a comprehensive index system which fit for the evaluation of the impact, and put forward a practicable evaluation method. It’s hoped that the paper can provide a good reference to the impact evaluation of the rural highway construction on local development, rural highway network planning and construction.
Firstly, the paper defined the rural highway, which should include county highway, town highway and highways among villages. Based on this, the paper analized the features on the aspects of technique, economic, traffic supply and demand, highway network planning, construction, management, the main problems and opportunities of rural highway construction in new period were described, and the requirements of local development to rural highway construction were puted out.
Secondly, the paper analized detailedly the impact of rural construction on local economic development, local social development, local life quality and local sustainable development. Considering the index system of comprehensively building well-off society, economic society development, national economy and social effect, the initial evaluation index system was established, and the correlation of evaluation index was analyzed. To get a index system with indexes as few as possible and with better representivity of the whole information of initial indexes, this paper did some researches on the selection methods of evaluation index, and finally established a index system with 9 indexes based on the factor analysis.
Thirdly, the advantages, disadvantages and applicable conditions of existing comprehensive evaluation model were analyzed and evaluated, and the requests and comprehensive evaluation principles of the impact evaluation model on the rural local development from rural highway construction were proposed. So the comprehensive evaluation methods on the rural local development based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy statistics are proposed. And according to the principles of the expert investigation and fuzzy statistics, the weight coefficient and membership function of the evaluation indexes were confirmed. The comprehensive evaluation model of the rural local development from rural highway construction based on the BP neural network was proposed, and the framework, arithmetic and realization process of model was analyzed. The weight matrixes and bias vectors of neural network model were calibrated based on the data of road construction and socioeconomic development of Fuyu county and Tailai county in Qiqihar city. Based on the limitation of single target in the exciting model, the production function model of multi-objective which was used in the economic evaluation was improved to evaluate the impact on the rural local economic development from rural highway construction.
Lastly, the statistical data of Fuyu county, Tailai county, Kedong county, Nehe county, Baiquan county, Yi’an county and Gannan county were used for empirical analysis. Firstly, the comprehensive evaluation model based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy statistics was applied to ensure evaluation grades on the rural local developing import from rural highway construction of the above counties. Secondly, the calibrated BP neural network was applied to ensure the quantized result of local development contribution from rural highway construction. Lastly, the improved production function model of multi-objective was applied to quantitatively analyze the contribution of Qiqihar economical development from the rural highway construction.
In the course of the study, we learn from previous research results, take the mind of system as guidance, and make use of the method of combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the integration of standard theory and empirical research on the integration, and carry out research work, such as rural highway construction in Qiqihar of Heilongjiang impact on regional development. This paper against the topic of the features of rural highway construction in new area, carry out the qualitative and quantitative analysis on rural highway construction impact on regional development, which will play a positive guiding role in the establishment of highway network.
引文
1 Niklas Sieber. Appropriate Transport and Rural Development in Makete District, Tanzania. Journal of Transport Geography [J]. 1998, 6(1): 69~73
2 T. Rwebangira. Rurual Roads as Stimulants of Economic Development. Proceeding of the Discourse on Engineering Contribution in Poverty Reduction [C]. 2005, 71~79
3 Warren Shire Council. Local and Regional Road Network Strategic Plan [C]. 2005
4 Michael A. Estes. Virginia Department Transportation’s Rural Rustic Road Program [C]. 2006
5 Ahmed, R., and M. Hossain. Developmental Impact of Rural Infrastructure in Bangladesh [C]. International Food Policy Research Institute. 1990
6 Jacoby, H. G. Access to Markets and the Benefits of Rurual Roads [J]. The Economic Journal. 2000, 110: 713~737
7 Khandker, S., V. Lavy, and D. Filmer. Schooling and Cognitive Achievements of Children in Morocco [C]. World Bank. 1994
8 Escobal, J. The Determinants of Nonfarm Income Diversification in Rural Peru [J]. World Development. 2001, 29(3): 497~508
9 Kwon, E. Infrastructure, Growth, and Poverty Reduction in Indonesia: A Cross-sectional Analysis [C]. Asian Development Bank. 2001
10 Potter T E C, Cebon D, Cole D J. Assessing Road-friendliness: a Review [J]. Proc Instn Mech Engrs. 1997, 211(D4): 455~475
11 Cebon D. Interaction Between Heavy Vehicles and Roads [M]. USA: Society of Automotive Engineers, 1993, 93~100
12 Gurnani, H. A Study of Suantity Discount Pricing Models with Different Ordering Structures: Order Coordination, Order Consolidation, and Multi-tier ordering Hierarchy. International Journal of Production Economics [J]. 2001, 72(3): 203~225
13 Snow, C.C. Twenty-first Century Organizations [J]. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science. 1997, 25: 61~70
14 Yamaguchi K., Inter-regional Air Transport Acessibility and Macro-economic Performance [J]. Japan Transportation Research. 2007, 43: 247~258
15 Bradley Hull. The Role of Elasticity in Supply Chain Performance [J]. Int. J. Production Economics. 2005, 98: 301~314
16 Holtz Eakin, D. and Schwartz, A.E. Infrastructure in a Structural Model of Economic Growth [J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics. 1995, 125(2): 131~151
17 Chalermmon Lertpattarapong. Applying System Dynamics Approach to the Supply Chain Management Problem [C]. Thesis of MIT. 2002
18 Shyamal Paula, Rabindra N, Bhattacharyab. Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in India: a Note on Conflicting Results [J]. Energy Economics. 2004, 26: 977~983
19 Randers, J. Elements of the System Dynamics Method [M]. American: The MIT Press. 1980
20 Botham, R. Regional Development Effects of Road Investment [J]. Transport Planning and Technology. 1980, 6(1): 97~108
21 Riley M.J, Towill D.R. Business Systems Engineering to Achieve the Egan Construction Targets [J]. Proc., Instn. of Civ. Engrs. 2001, 153~178
22 Sylvia Herrmann, Threshold Values for Nature Protection Areas as Indicators for Bio-diversity: A Regional Evaluation of Economic and Ecological Consequences [J]. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 2003, 493~506
23 L.Y.Shen, George W.C.Wu, Catherine S.K.Ng. Risk Assessment for Construction Joint Ventures in China [J]. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management. 2001, 127(1): 76~81
24 Peter Headicar. The Local Development Effects of Major Newroads-M40 Case Study [J]. Transportation. 1996, 23: 55~69
25 Jiang L. Economic Entropy and its Application to the Structure of the Transport System-quality Quantity [J]. International Journal of Methodology. 1996, 30(2): 161~171
26 Kuntinee M, Kittipong B, Nachol C. Multi-objective Optimisation by Co-operative Co-evolution [C]. Parallel Problem Solving from Nature. Birmingham: Springer Verlag, 2004:,772~781
27 Deb K, Pratap A , Agarwal S , et al. A Fast and Elitist Multiobjective Genetic Algorithm: NSGA2II [C]. IEEE Trans on Evolutionary Computation. 2002, 6(2): 182~197
28 Ulieru, Mihaela. A Fuzzy Evolutionary Approach for Collaborative Clusteringin Multi-agent Systems with Application to Emergent Virtual Organizations [C]. IEEE International Conference on Plasma Science. 2002, 1: 197~202
29 Feng Xiating, Katsuyama K., Wang Yongjia, Lin Yunmei. A New Direction-Intelligent Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering [J]. Int.J. Rock Mechanics and Mining Science, 1997, 34(1),:135~141
30 Schaffer J D, Whitley D. Proceedings of the Workshop on Combinations of Genetic Algorithms and Neural Networks [M]. Los Alamitos, CA: The IEEE Computer Society Press. 1992
31 Zitzler E, Deb K, Thiele L. Comparison of Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms: Empirical results [J]. Evolutionary Computation. 2000, 8(2): 173~195
32 David J J, Frenzel J F. Trainning Product Unit Neural Networks with Genetic Algorithms [C]. IEEE Expert. 1993, 8(5): 26~33
33 Davis T. Effective Supply Chain Management [J]. Sloan Management Review. 1993, 2: 35~46
34 Holland, J.H. Concerning the Emergence of Tag-mediated Lookahead in Classifier Systems [J]. Nonlinear Phenomena. 1990, 42(2): 188~202
35 David J J, Frenzel J F. Trainning Product Unit Neural Networks with Genetic Algorithms [C]. IEEE Expert. 1993, 8(5): 26~33
36 Sunggtae Cho, Soonil Jeon, Hangsang Jo, et al. A Development of Shift Control Algorithm for Automated Manual Transmission in the Hybrid Drivetrain [C]. Seoul 2000 FISITA World Automotive Congress. 2000, 6: 12~15
37 Lohn J D, Kraus W F , Haith G L. Comparing a Coevolutionary Genetic Algorithm for Multiobjective Optimization [C]. Congress on Evolutionary Computation. 2002:,1157~1162
38 Bornholdt A. General Asymmetric Neural Networks and Structure Design by Genetic Algorithms [J]. Neural Networks. 1992, 5(2): 327~334
39 Saghiri, Soroosh, Fazel Zarandi M.H. A Comprehensive Fuzzy Multi-objective Model for Supplier Selection Process [C]. IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems. 2003, 1: 368~373
40马新辉.黑龙江省农村公路建设问题研究[J].理论探讨. 2007, 135: 85~86
41陈文强,顾玉磊.农村公路网规划建设的思考[J].交通科技与经济. 2007, 9(5): 112~114
42徐秉宏.浅谈农村公路建设中生态环境保护对策[J].甘肃科技. 2008, 24(15): 133~137
43王欣荣,赵剑锋,孟繁民.浅谈贫困地区农村公路的建设与发展[J].黑龙江交通科技. 2001, 93: 59~61
44杨海辉.谈贫困山区农村公路建设存在的问题与思考[J].科技资讯. 2008, 11: 160
45马文田.中国农村公路有效供给不足的问题探讨[J].中州学刊. 2008, 165: 57~59
46刘新光.公路建设对地域经济的影响[J].山东交通科技. 2004, 4: 84, 90~91
47姚凯.农村公路建设与县域经济发展关系研究[J].科学之友. 2006:,94~95
48陈江红,黎岩,宗传苓.县道公路网规划评价指标分析[J].西安公路交通大学学报. 1999, 19(2): 27~30
49袁剑波,朱文喜.公路建设项目后评价内容体系研究[J].公路. 2001, 6(20):92~95
50朱顺应,王红.可持续发展的公路网规划评价指标[J].公路. 2001, 1: 8~13
51张慧颖.基于灰色变权聚类的公路建设项目成功度评价[J].公路. 2006, 8: 141~145
52刘奇,李旭宏.农村公路网技术评价指标体系研究[J].交通运输工程与信息学报. 2007, 5(4): 105~109
53梁国华,杨琦,马荣国.农村公路绩效评价指标体系的构建方法[J].中国公路学报. 2007, 20(6): 111~116
54罗京,王峰,王元庆.农村公路建设的社会经济效益分析[J].公路. 2007, 9: 122~127
55马书红,方健红,王元庆.农村公路社会经济绩效评价体系探讨[J].公路. 2007, 8: 130~134
56沈群.安徽省农村公路规划评价指标体系研究[J].公路. 2008, 4: 138~142
57马书红.农村公路规划与执行绩效评价体系研究[J].重庆交通大学学报. 2008, 27(1): 113~117
58裴玉龙,刘洋,罗丽君.公路网路段交通量预测模型研究[J].中国公路学报. 1999, 10(4): 101~106
59于江霞.基于加权灰色关联度的公路交通适应性评价[J].公路交通科技. 2006,23(5):75~78
60张立业.基于神经模糊系统的高速公路社会经济效益评价方法研究[D].长沙理工大学博士论文. 2006, 23~42
61袁志刚.非瓦尔拉均衡理论及其在中国经济中的应用[M].上海:上海人民出版社, 1997, 88~110
62付大智.青海省高等级公路可持续发展后评价理论与方法研究[D].长安大学博士论文. 2006, 44~51
63李铁立.边界效应与跨边界次区域经济合作研究[D].东北师范大学博士学位论文. 2004, 53~61
64杨文银,王太.农村公路资金渠道配置评价的相对标度法[J].中国公路学报. 2007, 6: 118~122
65张劲文,周晓志.公路建设投资与经济增长[J].广东农工商管理干部学院学报. 2000, 16(2): 21~25
66杨忻.投入产出方法在交通运输建设项目地区经济效益研究中的应用[J].系统工程. 1995, 1: 32~39
67许云飞,王伟.公路建设拉动国民经济的定量研究[J].山东交通科技. 2000, 4: 1~9
68汪传旭.交通运输业对国民经济贡献的衡量方法[J].中国公路学报. 2004, 14(1): 94~97
69刘南,周庆明.交通基础设施建设投资对国民经济拉动作用的定量分析[J].公路交通科技. 2006, 23(5): 50~54
70何民,刘小明.关于交通系统与社会经济关系的探讨[C].中国公路学会2003年学术年会. 2003,S1: 357~360
71王元庆,张志敏,周伟.公路建设投资乘数的算法研究[J].中国公路学报. 2004, 02(17): 105~108
72苗广营,王永祥.公路建设项目管理与政府监督考察报告[J].青海交通科技. 2005, 5: 1~3
73刘南.高速公路对区域经济发展的影响研究——以浙江省杭甬高速公路为例[J].中国软科学. 2002, 11: 11~16
74王殿海,栗红强,王建智.公路运输发展对国民经济增长贡献率测算方法与应用研究[J].土木工程学报. 2003, 7: 100~104
75梅鸣,胡天军.沈阳过境绕城高速公路社会经济效益后评估的系统动力学模型[J].交通运输系统工程与信息. 2005, 2: 13~17
76郭跃东,汤毅.高速公路服务区适应性评价方法研究[J].公路. 2007, 4: 106~109
77朱辉. DEA方法在公路网规划方案综合评价中的应用[J].土木工程学报. 2005, 6: 111~115
78柯姜岑,张培林.农村公路投融资项目优先评价指标体系的构建[J].公路. 2007, 1: 22~27
79胡文友,李爱军,段拥军等.公路网规划方案综合评价实用方法研究[J].公路交通科技. 2001, 18(3): 106~108
80秦霞,顾政华,李旭宏.区域公路网布局规划方案的连通度评价指标研究[J].土木工程学报. 2006, 39(1): 112~116
81李嘉,张翊. AHP和模糊评价法相结合的公路网规划方案评价研究[J].中南公路工程. 2006, 31(2): 51~53
82陈敬武,李雅,李立.基于DEA的天津公路网规划综合评价模型研究[J].中外公路. 2007, 27(2): 174~178
83周国光,杨琦,凌振伟.公路运输项目经济评价[M].西安:陕西人民教育出版社, 1990,80~120
84周惠珍.投资项目经济评价[M].北京:中国审计出版社. 1997, 81~105
85中国公路建设行业协会.农村公路建设与管理必读[M].北京:人民交通出版社. 2004, 1~9
86交通部, 2005年农村公路建设实施意见[D].公路. 2005, 7(7): 179
87陆大道.中国区域发展的理论与实践[M].北京:科学出版社. 2003, 221~255
88道格拉斯,诺斯.经济史的结构与变迁[M].上海:上海二联书店. 1991, 225
89 Leelakulthanit, Orose, Rlph L, Day. Investigating the Relationship between Marketing and Overall Satisfaction with Life in a Developing Country [J]. Journal of Macro-marketing. 1991, 11(1): 3~23
90 Cummins, Robert A. Objective and Subjective Quality of Life: An Interactive Model [J]. Social Indicators Research. 2000, 52: 55~72
91贺宏善.关于提高农民生活质量问题的探讨[J].农业经济问题. 1998, 6: 33~35
92郑振侄,陈飞天,陈绍军.“十五”期间提高福建省农民生活质量的影响因素及其对策[J].福建农业大学学报(社会科学版). 2001, 3: 24~36
93张润清,谢艳辉.中国农村居民生活质量评价指标体系研究[C].经济论坛. 2004, 4: 116~119
94周万全.农民生活质量指标体系构建现实依据—对湖北省农民生活质量调查的再思考[J].科技创业月刊. 2005, 5: 127~128
95郑晓瑛.老年人口健康生活质量评价原则的探讨[J].南方人口. 2000, 15(1): 8~13
96林南.生活质量的结构与指标[J].社会学研究. 1987, 6: 73~89
97纪竹荪.我国国民生活质量统计指标体系的构建[C].统计与信息论坛. 2003, 4: 16~17
98李斌斌.社会进步概念的现代诠释[J].科技创业月刊. 2007, 9: 167~169
99国务院发展研究中心发展战略和区域经济研究部“十一五”计划基本思路研究课题组,详细解读全面建设小康社会指标体系的16项指标[C].经济参考报. 2004
100汝信,陆学艺,李培林. 2007年:中国社会形势分析与预测[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社. 2007, 321~325
101蔡晓蕾,京九铁路对沿线地区社会经济发展影响的综合评价[J].科技与经济. 2004, 3: 57~59
102 Jeroen, B. Social Indicators and LivingConditions in the Nether-lands. Social IndicatorsResearch. 2002, 60: 89~113
103 Jeroen, B. & Ineke, S. MeasuringWell-being in the Nether-lands: The SCP Index from 1974-1997. Social IndicatorsResearch. 1999, 48: 51~75
104彭念一,李丽.我国居民生活质量评价指标与综合评价研究[J].湖南大学学报. 2003, 17(5): 21~25
105张润清,谢艳辉.中国农村居民生活质量评价指标体系研究[C].经济论坛. 2004,116~119
106 Hills,M. Book Review. Applied Statistics .1977, 339~340
107 LukKC, Ball JE, SharmaA. A study of optimal model lag and spatial inputs to artificial neural network for rainfall forecasting. Journal of Hydrology. 2000, 227:56~65
108 Curtis IA. Valuing ecosystem goods and services: A new approach using a surrogate market and the combination of amultiple criteria analysis and a Delphi panel to as-sign weights to the attributes. Ecological Economics. 2004, 50: 163~194
109 Naga R. P., Fan Y. Y. Associative memory techniques for quick estimation of network performance measures. Trnaportation Research Record, 2007, 2039: 75~82
110 Waddell P.; Ulfarsson G. F.; Franklin J.; et al. Incorporating Land Use in Metropolitan Transportation Planning. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. 2007, 41 (5): 382~410
2 T. Rwebangira. Rurual Roads as Stimulants of Economic Development. Proceeding of the Discourse on Engineering Contribution in Poverty Reduction [C]. 2005, 71~79
3 Warren Shire Council. Local and Regional Road Network Strategic Plan [C]. 2005
4 Michael A. Estes. Virginia Department Transportation’s Rural Rustic Road Program [C]. 2006
5 Ahmed, R., and M. Hossain. Developmental Impact of Rural Infrastructure in Bangladesh [C]. International Food Policy Research Institute. 1990
6 Jacoby, H. G. Access to Markets and the Benefits of Rurual Roads [J]. The Economic Journal. 2000, 110: 713~737
7 Khandker, S., V. Lavy, and D. Filmer. Schooling and Cognitive Achievements of Children in Morocco [C]. World Bank. 1994
8 Escobal, J. The Determinants of Nonfarm Income Diversification in Rural Peru [J]. World Development. 2001, 29(3): 497~508
9 Kwon, E. Infrastructure, Growth, and Poverty Reduction in Indonesia: A Cross-sectional Analysis [C]. Asian Development Bank. 2001
10 Potter T E C, Cebon D, Cole D J. Assessing Road-friendliness: a Review [J]. Proc Instn Mech Engrs. 1997, 211(D4): 455~475
11 Cebon D. Interaction Between Heavy Vehicles and Roads [M]. USA: Society of Automotive Engineers, 1993, 93~100
12 Gurnani, H. A Study of Suantity Discount Pricing Models with Different Ordering Structures: Order Coordination, Order Consolidation, and Multi-tier ordering Hierarchy. International Journal of Production Economics [J]. 2001, 72(3): 203~225
13 Snow, C.C. Twenty-first Century Organizations [J]. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science. 1997, 25: 61~70
14 Yamaguchi K., Inter-regional Air Transport Acessibility and Macro-economic Performance [J]. Japan Transportation Research. 2007, 43: 247~258
15 Bradley Hull. The Role of Elasticity in Supply Chain Performance [J]. Int. J. Production Economics. 2005, 98: 301~314
16 Holtz Eakin, D. and Schwartz, A.E. Infrastructure in a Structural Model of Economic Growth [J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics. 1995, 125(2): 131~151
17 Chalermmon Lertpattarapong. Applying System Dynamics Approach to the Supply Chain Management Problem [C]. Thesis of MIT. 2002
18 Shyamal Paula, Rabindra N, Bhattacharyab. Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in India: a Note on Conflicting Results [J]. Energy Economics. 2004, 26: 977~983
19 Randers, J. Elements of the System Dynamics Method [M]. American: The MIT Press. 1980
20 Botham, R. Regional Development Effects of Road Investment [J]. Transport Planning and Technology. 1980, 6(1): 97~108
21 Riley M.J, Towill D.R. Business Systems Engineering to Achieve the Egan Construction Targets [J]. Proc., Instn. of Civ. Engrs. 2001, 153~178
22 Sylvia Herrmann, Threshold Values for Nature Protection Areas as Indicators for Bio-diversity: A Regional Evaluation of Economic and Ecological Consequences [J]. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 2003, 493~506
23 L.Y.Shen, George W.C.Wu, Catherine S.K.Ng. Risk Assessment for Construction Joint Ventures in China [J]. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management. 2001, 127(1): 76~81
24 Peter Headicar. The Local Development Effects of Major Newroads-M40 Case Study [J]. Transportation. 1996, 23: 55~69
25 Jiang L. Economic Entropy and its Application to the Structure of the Transport System-quality Quantity [J]. International Journal of Methodology. 1996, 30(2): 161~171
26 Kuntinee M, Kittipong B, Nachol C. Multi-objective Optimisation by Co-operative Co-evolution [C]. Parallel Problem Solving from Nature. Birmingham: Springer Verlag, 2004:,772~781
27 Deb K, Pratap A , Agarwal S , et al. A Fast and Elitist Multiobjective Genetic Algorithm: NSGA2II [C]. IEEE Trans on Evolutionary Computation. 2002, 6(2): 182~197
28 Ulieru, Mihaela. A Fuzzy Evolutionary Approach for Collaborative Clusteringin Multi-agent Systems with Application to Emergent Virtual Organizations [C]. IEEE International Conference on Plasma Science. 2002, 1: 197~202
29 Feng Xiating, Katsuyama K., Wang Yongjia, Lin Yunmei. A New Direction-Intelligent Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering [J]. Int.J. Rock Mechanics and Mining Science, 1997, 34(1),:135~141
30 Schaffer J D, Whitley D. Proceedings of the Workshop on Combinations of Genetic Algorithms and Neural Networks [M]. Los Alamitos, CA: The IEEE Computer Society Press. 1992
31 Zitzler E, Deb K, Thiele L. Comparison of Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms: Empirical results [J]. Evolutionary Computation. 2000, 8(2): 173~195
32 David J J, Frenzel J F. Trainning Product Unit Neural Networks with Genetic Algorithms [C]. IEEE Expert. 1993, 8(5): 26~33
33 Davis T. Effective Supply Chain Management [J]. Sloan Management Review. 1993, 2: 35~46
34 Holland, J.H. Concerning the Emergence of Tag-mediated Lookahead in Classifier Systems [J]. Nonlinear Phenomena. 1990, 42(2): 188~202
35 David J J, Frenzel J F. Trainning Product Unit Neural Networks with Genetic Algorithms [C]. IEEE Expert. 1993, 8(5): 26~33
36 Sunggtae Cho, Soonil Jeon, Hangsang Jo, et al. A Development of Shift Control Algorithm for Automated Manual Transmission in the Hybrid Drivetrain [C]. Seoul 2000 FISITA World Automotive Congress. 2000, 6: 12~15
37 Lohn J D, Kraus W F , Haith G L. Comparing a Coevolutionary Genetic Algorithm for Multiobjective Optimization [C]. Congress on Evolutionary Computation. 2002:,1157~1162
38 Bornholdt A. General Asymmetric Neural Networks and Structure Design by Genetic Algorithms [J]. Neural Networks. 1992, 5(2): 327~334
39 Saghiri, Soroosh, Fazel Zarandi M.H. A Comprehensive Fuzzy Multi-objective Model for Supplier Selection Process [C]. IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems. 2003, 1: 368~373
40马新辉.黑龙江省农村公路建设问题研究[J].理论探讨. 2007, 135: 85~86
41陈文强,顾玉磊.农村公路网规划建设的思考[J].交通科技与经济. 2007, 9(5): 112~114
42徐秉宏.浅谈农村公路建设中生态环境保护对策[J].甘肃科技. 2008, 24(15): 133~137
43王欣荣,赵剑锋,孟繁民.浅谈贫困地区农村公路的建设与发展[J].黑龙江交通科技. 2001, 93: 59~61
44杨海辉.谈贫困山区农村公路建设存在的问题与思考[J].科技资讯. 2008, 11: 160
45马文田.中国农村公路有效供给不足的问题探讨[J].中州学刊. 2008, 165: 57~59
46刘新光.公路建设对地域经济的影响[J].山东交通科技. 2004, 4: 84, 90~91
47姚凯.农村公路建设与县域经济发展关系研究[J].科学之友. 2006:,94~95
48陈江红,黎岩,宗传苓.县道公路网规划评价指标分析[J].西安公路交通大学学报. 1999, 19(2): 27~30
49袁剑波,朱文喜.公路建设项目后评价内容体系研究[J].公路. 2001, 6(20):92~95
50朱顺应,王红.可持续发展的公路网规划评价指标[J].公路. 2001, 1: 8~13
51张慧颖.基于灰色变权聚类的公路建设项目成功度评价[J].公路. 2006, 8: 141~145
52刘奇,李旭宏.农村公路网技术评价指标体系研究[J].交通运输工程与信息学报. 2007, 5(4): 105~109
53梁国华,杨琦,马荣国.农村公路绩效评价指标体系的构建方法[J].中国公路学报. 2007, 20(6): 111~116
54罗京,王峰,王元庆.农村公路建设的社会经济效益分析[J].公路. 2007, 9: 122~127
55马书红,方健红,王元庆.农村公路社会经济绩效评价体系探讨[J].公路. 2007, 8: 130~134
56沈群.安徽省农村公路规划评价指标体系研究[J].公路. 2008, 4: 138~142
57马书红.农村公路规划与执行绩效评价体系研究[J].重庆交通大学学报. 2008, 27(1): 113~117
58裴玉龙,刘洋,罗丽君.公路网路段交通量预测模型研究[J].中国公路学报. 1999, 10(4): 101~106
59于江霞.基于加权灰色关联度的公路交通适应性评价[J].公路交通科技. 2006,23(5):75~78
60张立业.基于神经模糊系统的高速公路社会经济效益评价方法研究[D].长沙理工大学博士论文. 2006, 23~42
61袁志刚.非瓦尔拉均衡理论及其在中国经济中的应用[M].上海:上海人民出版社, 1997, 88~110
62付大智.青海省高等级公路可持续发展后评价理论与方法研究[D].长安大学博士论文. 2006, 44~51
63李铁立.边界效应与跨边界次区域经济合作研究[D].东北师范大学博士学位论文. 2004, 53~61
64杨文银,王太.农村公路资金渠道配置评价的相对标度法[J].中国公路学报. 2007, 6: 118~122
65张劲文,周晓志.公路建设投资与经济增长[J].广东农工商管理干部学院学报. 2000, 16(2): 21~25
66杨忻.投入产出方法在交通运输建设项目地区经济效益研究中的应用[J].系统工程. 1995, 1: 32~39
67许云飞,王伟.公路建设拉动国民经济的定量研究[J].山东交通科技. 2000, 4: 1~9
68汪传旭.交通运输业对国民经济贡献的衡量方法[J].中国公路学报. 2004, 14(1): 94~97
69刘南,周庆明.交通基础设施建设投资对国民经济拉动作用的定量分析[J].公路交通科技. 2006, 23(5): 50~54
70何民,刘小明.关于交通系统与社会经济关系的探讨[C].中国公路学会2003年学术年会. 2003,S1: 357~360
71王元庆,张志敏,周伟.公路建设投资乘数的算法研究[J].中国公路学报. 2004, 02(17): 105~108
72苗广营,王永祥.公路建设项目管理与政府监督考察报告[J].青海交通科技. 2005, 5: 1~3
73刘南.高速公路对区域经济发展的影响研究——以浙江省杭甬高速公路为例[J].中国软科学. 2002, 11: 11~16
74王殿海,栗红强,王建智.公路运输发展对国民经济增长贡献率测算方法与应用研究[J].土木工程学报. 2003, 7: 100~104
75梅鸣,胡天军.沈阳过境绕城高速公路社会经济效益后评估的系统动力学模型[J].交通运输系统工程与信息. 2005, 2: 13~17
76郭跃东,汤毅.高速公路服务区适应性评价方法研究[J].公路. 2007, 4: 106~109
77朱辉. DEA方法在公路网规划方案综合评价中的应用[J].土木工程学报. 2005, 6: 111~115
78柯姜岑,张培林.农村公路投融资项目优先评价指标体系的构建[J].公路. 2007, 1: 22~27
79胡文友,李爱军,段拥军等.公路网规划方案综合评价实用方法研究[J].公路交通科技. 2001, 18(3): 106~108
80秦霞,顾政华,李旭宏.区域公路网布局规划方案的连通度评价指标研究[J].土木工程学报. 2006, 39(1): 112~116
81李嘉,张翊. AHP和模糊评价法相结合的公路网规划方案评价研究[J].中南公路工程. 2006, 31(2): 51~53
82陈敬武,李雅,李立.基于DEA的天津公路网规划综合评价模型研究[J].中外公路. 2007, 27(2): 174~178
83周国光,杨琦,凌振伟.公路运输项目经济评价[M].西安:陕西人民教育出版社, 1990,80~120
84周惠珍.投资项目经济评价[M].北京:中国审计出版社. 1997, 81~105
85中国公路建设行业协会.农村公路建设与管理必读[M].北京:人民交通出版社. 2004, 1~9
86交通部, 2005年农村公路建设实施意见[D].公路. 2005, 7(7): 179
87陆大道.中国区域发展的理论与实践[M].北京:科学出版社. 2003, 221~255
88道格拉斯,诺斯.经济史的结构与变迁[M].上海:上海二联书店. 1991, 225
89 Leelakulthanit, Orose, Rlph L, Day. Investigating the Relationship between Marketing and Overall Satisfaction with Life in a Developing Country [J]. Journal of Macro-marketing. 1991, 11(1): 3~23
90 Cummins, Robert A. Objective and Subjective Quality of Life: An Interactive Model [J]. Social Indicators Research. 2000, 52: 55~72
91贺宏善.关于提高农民生活质量问题的探讨[J].农业经济问题. 1998, 6: 33~35
92郑振侄,陈飞天,陈绍军.“十五”期间提高福建省农民生活质量的影响因素及其对策[J].福建农业大学学报(社会科学版). 2001, 3: 24~36
93张润清,谢艳辉.中国农村居民生活质量评价指标体系研究[C].经济论坛. 2004, 4: 116~119
94周万全.农民生活质量指标体系构建现实依据—对湖北省农民生活质量调查的再思考[J].科技创业月刊. 2005, 5: 127~128
95郑晓瑛.老年人口健康生活质量评价原则的探讨[J].南方人口. 2000, 15(1): 8~13
96林南.生活质量的结构与指标[J].社会学研究. 1987, 6: 73~89
97纪竹荪.我国国民生活质量统计指标体系的构建[C].统计与信息论坛. 2003, 4: 16~17
98李斌斌.社会进步概念的现代诠释[J].科技创业月刊. 2007, 9: 167~169
99国务院发展研究中心发展战略和区域经济研究部“十一五”计划基本思路研究课题组,详细解读全面建设小康社会指标体系的16项指标[C].经济参考报. 2004
100汝信,陆学艺,李培林. 2007年:中国社会形势分析与预测[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社. 2007, 321~325
101蔡晓蕾,京九铁路对沿线地区社会经济发展影响的综合评价[J].科技与经济. 2004, 3: 57~59
102 Jeroen, B. Social Indicators and LivingConditions in the Nether-lands. Social IndicatorsResearch. 2002, 60: 89~113
103 Jeroen, B. & Ineke, S. MeasuringWell-being in the Nether-lands: The SCP Index from 1974-1997. Social IndicatorsResearch. 1999, 48: 51~75
104彭念一,李丽.我国居民生活质量评价指标与综合评价研究[J].湖南大学学报. 2003, 17(5): 21~25
105张润清,谢艳辉.中国农村居民生活质量评价指标体系研究[C].经济论坛. 2004,116~119
106 Hills,M. Book Review. Applied Statistics .1977, 339~340
107 LukKC, Ball JE, SharmaA. A study of optimal model lag and spatial inputs to artificial neural network for rainfall forecasting. Journal of Hydrology. 2000, 227:56~65
108 Curtis IA. Valuing ecosystem goods and services: A new approach using a surrogate market and the combination of amultiple criteria analysis and a Delphi panel to as-sign weights to the attributes. Ecological Economics. 2004, 50: 163~194
109 Naga R. P., Fan Y. Y. Associative memory techniques for quick estimation of network performance measures. Trnaportation Research Record, 2007, 2039: 75~82
110 Waddell P.; Ulfarsson G. F.; Franklin J.; et al. Incorporating Land Use in Metropolitan Transportation Planning. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. 2007, 41 (5): 382~410