服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级的影响分析
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摘要
服务业是近年来世界上增长最快的产业,被誉为产业和市场发展的“黏合剂”。作为衡量区域经济繁荣程度的重要标志之一,服务业发展也逐渐受到各国重视,特别是步入21世纪后,在全球范围内,服务业外商直接投资快速增长,以服务业FDI为核心的外商直接投资,正逐步成长为我国和世界经济体系中调整升级产业结构和促进区域经济繁荣的重要力量,且日益深刻地改变着世界各国经济、产业、技术的发展模式。
2012年中国实际使用外资(FDI)金额1117.2亿美元,连续20年成为利用外资最多的发展中国家。正是由于长期坚持引进外资,我国逐步实现了农业大国向工业大国的转变。在很长一段时期,制造业FDI一直是我国外资引入领域的重点。2001年随着正式加入世贸组织,我国迈出了逐渐开放服务市场的步伐,服务业FDI也开始快速成长起来,成为我国FDI的重要组成部分,外商直接投资在服务领域的金额日益增多,由1997年的119亿美元左右,增长到2012年的572亿美元,15年时间里增长了近5倍。2011年我国服务业FDI比重占到了实际利用外资总额的50%以上,服务业FDI整体比重首次超过制造业。
与此同时,改革开放30多年来,中国的经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成就,实现了多年的两位数发展,人民生活有了较大改善,国内生产总值2013年达到了56.9万亿元,贸易进出口总额达到了4万亿美元,位居全球第一。但辉煌的总量并未掩盖经济结构的日益失衡,传统资源消耗的高能低产依旧未彻底改变,中国作为一个发展中的大国,工业化已经步入到中后期,但依旧有大量劳动力滞留于传统产业；大工业发展虽然总量上较为突出,但内部结构依旧较为单一,科技含量相对于西方发达国家也存在一定差距；在新兴服务业领域,由于起步较晚,伴随着劳动力成本日益上升、人口红利快速削减,矛盾也日益突出。只有实现国内产业结构的升级转变,只有彻底的调整经济发展方式,才能实现未来国家的可持续性增长。由于外资往往拥有较为先进的经验和技术,加上资本优势,FDI的流入为推动我国产业结构的升级转变提供了可能。
我国作为全球最重要的发展中国家,随着对外开放步伐的加快和国内经济的飞速发展,如何在国际产业转移浪潮中合理的利用外资,并实现我国产业结构的升级转变,是当前一个迫在眉睫的问题。事实上,国家也已经把这种认识上升到了战略层面。2011年由发改委和商务部联合下发的《外商投资产业指导目录(2011年修订)》首次提出了“要以完善和升级产业结构,加快转变生产方式为主题来合理引进相关外资,在对外开放过程中,要做到内外统筹兼顾,以外资来补充和优化我国各项产业结构,并着力推进外资在提升我国科技水平、促进产业转型方面发挥重大作用”；我国“十二五”规划要求,“在对外开放引进外资中,要进一步提升外资的利用水平,并以外促内,由表及里,逐步优化我国的产业结构发展方式,进而实现在未来的国际竞争和合作的更高层次上赢得话语权,获得行业主导地位”。因此可以预计,在服务业占整个国民经济比重日趋提高的背景下,占外商直接投资绝大多数份额的服务业FDI势必对中国产业结构升级产生重要影响。因此本文从服务业着手,研究服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级的作用机制具有一定的现实意义。
全文共分为6个章节,基本研究思路为：梳理相关理论并对国内外研究现状进行评述,进而提出本文研究的着眼点,接着分析中国利用服务业FDI发展概况及产业结构发展现状,在此基础上提出服务业FDI的产业结构升级效应,然后进行服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级影响的实证研究,其中包括服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级的经济关联效应和冲击效应两部分,最后本文依据研究结论,提出相应的对策建议。
第1章为导言。这一章既是本文的总纲,也是为深入理解本文研究的意图、架构和内容的一份说明。包括选题背景与意义、重要概念的界定、研究内容、研究方法、可能的创新点以及研究的不足。
第2章为理论基础和文献综述。在这一章中,笔者梳理了国际直接投资理论在服务业的适用性、产业结构升级理论、外商直接投资与产业结构升级之间关系的理论,对国内外有关服务业FDI的经济效应、福利效应、技术进步效应以及产业结构效应研究的主要成就和欠缺进行了总结。
第3章为服务业FDI的发展概况分析。本章首先分析了全球服务业FDI的总体发展概况,接着介绍了中国利用服务业FDI发展概况,通过系统性的分析发现：中国服务业FDI流入在波动中上升,服务业FDI内部行业分布不均衡,服务业利用FDI呈现出政策性阶段特征。
第4章为产业结构发展现状及服务业FDI的产业结构升级效应分析。通过对全球及我国产业结构现状分析,发现当前我国产业结构发展中存在的突出问题表现在,产业间结构不均衡,产业内部构成不均衡,区域产业结构发展不均衡。通过分析得出,服务业FDI的产业结构升级效应体现在服务业FDI的技术溢出与管理示范效应、“隐性”效应、环境效应、传导效应四个方面。
第5章为服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级影响的实证研究。主要分为两个部分：服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级的经济关联效应研究以及服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级的冲击效应研究。前一部分采用灰色关联度分析方法分析服务业FDI对我国经济总量以及三次产业产值结构间的关联效应。后一部分运用多指标综合分析方法,通过分析三次产业利用服务业FDI对各自增加值、就业以及全员劳动生产率的影响,揭示服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级的冲击影响。具体采用的实证方法为向量自回归模型(VAR模型)、格兰杰因果检验,以及脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法。
第6章为结论和建议。通过实证研究,本文主要得到以下结论：1.服务业FDI对我国三次产业产值的增长具有不均等的贡献,对第一产业和第三产业的贡献优于第二产业；2.服务业FDI对我国就业结构的优化具有促进作用；3.服务业FDI显著促进了我国全员劳动生产率的提升；4.服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级影响的短期效应较为明显；5.服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级的影响不具有逆向传导性。据此提出了对策建议：1.推动服务业市场化进程,探索服务业FDI循环传导机制；2.改造升级传统服务业,探索服务产业发展的中国模式；3.合理引导服务业FDI流向,着力打造第二产业配套服务业；4.加强智力资本投入和完善基础实施建设,增强FDI的长期效益；5.依据国家产业政策,因地制宜选择服务业FDI。
本文可能的创新体现在以下几点：
在研究视角上,本文结合当前我国发展实际,将整个研究范畴限定在服务业领域,具有一定的针对性。通过对相关文献的梳理,笔者发现学术界对于传统外商直接投资影响的研究,主要集中在制造业领域,而对于服务业FDI的关注相对较少。发达国家的发展经历表明,一个成熟的经济体,服务业是三次产业中占比最高、潜力也最大的产业,并且就我国而言,近两年实际利用外商投资总额中服务业FDI已经占据主导地位,因此,本文将研究对象聚焦于服务业,研究服务业FDI与我国产业结构调整升级之间相互作用关系及影响是一个比较新的视角。
在研究内容上,本文将宏观分析与微观论证相结合,并突出了研究的微观特征。以往研究服务业FDI与产业结构关系的相关文献,研究者多把重心放在分析服务业FDI与宏观经济增长以及服务业FDI与三次产业间结构变化等领域,忽视了服务业FDI对三次产业内部结构变迁影响的研究。基于此,本文在研究内容上,淡化了对服务业FDI的宏观分析,而把较多的笔墨用于分析服务业FDI对我国三次产业内部结构升级变迁的影响。因而,能够更立体的反映出我国服务业FDI的产业结构效应。
在研究方法上,本文注重交互分析,并突出了指标的逆向影响特征。在研究FDI与产业结构关系的文献中,多数学者仅仅分析了FDI对于产业结构变迁的影响,而忽视了分析产业结构变迁对于FDI的影响,因此本文在研究过程中,运用灰色关联法和向量自回归方法,重点分析了各期产业结构相关变量变动后,对我国服务业FDI的变动影响,并在此基础上深入探讨了在我国利用服务业FDI的过程中,如何在现有基础上实现服务业FDI与产业结构升级之间一种相互影响、互为促进、共同进化、效用最大化的局面。
Service industry is the industry growing fastest in the word in recent years, which is known as the "glue" in the development of industry and the market. As one of the important signs to measure if the regional economy is prosperous or not, service industry's development gets the world's attention gradually, especially after entering the21st century, on a global scale, with the rapid growth of foreign direct investment in service industry(refered to "SFDI"), the foreign direct investment with SFDI as the core,are gradually growing to the important force to adjust and upgrade the industrial structure and to promote regional economic prosperity for our country's and the world's economic system,and they are becoming more and more profound to change the world'development pattern for economy, industry and technology.
China's actual use of foreign capital amount is＄111.72billion in2012, and China has been the top of the utilization of foreign capital for20years in developing countries. Because of long-term adherence to the introduction of foreign capital, our country gradually realized the change from agricultural country to industrial powerhouse.For a long period, manufacturing FDI had been the focus in the field of foreign investment in our country. With entering into the World Trade Organization (WTO) formally in2001, our country opened the service market gradually, SFDI began to grow up quickly, and became an important part of the FDI in our country, the amount of SFDI was increasing gradually, from around＄11.9billion in the1997to＄57.2billion in2012, which grew almost5times in15years. In2011,our country's SFDI proportion accounted for more than50%of the total amount of the actual use of the foreign capital, the proportion of SFDI as a whole was more than in manufacturing for the first time.At the same time, with the reform and opening-up for more than30years, China's economic development had made remarkable achievements, achieving double-digit number development after many years, people's living standards improved greatly, the gross domestic product in2013reached56.9trillion, total import and export trade reached$4trillion, the world's first. But the amount of glory does not cover the growing imbalance of economic structure, traditional resource consumption of high energy and low yield is still not completely changed, as a developing country, China has entered into the middle of industrialization, but there is still a large population stranded from traditional agriculture in the country; Industrial development, while it's total is outstanding, but the internal structure is still relatively single, technological content relative to the western developed countries also has certain disparity; In the field of burgeoning service industry, due to a late start, as the rising labor costs and demographic dividend rapid decline at present, only to realize the upgrading and the change of domestic industrial structure, and only completely adjust the pattern of economic development, our country can achieve the future sustainable growth. Because foreign capital usually have advanced experience and technology, and capital advantage, FDI inflows make it possible to promote the upgrading of the industrial structure in our country. As one of the world's most important developing countries, in our country, as the quickening pace of opening to the outside world and the rapid development of domestic economy, how to make use of foreign capital, and achieve the upgrading and the change of industrial structure in the international industry shift wave in our country is currently a looming problem. In fact, our country also rose this thought to the policy level. In2011,《the foreign investment industrial guidance catalogue (2011revision)》 jointly issued by the national development and reform commission and the ministry of commerce put forward "to improve and upgrade the industrial structure, introduce relevant foreign capital reasonably by looking accelerate the transformation of the mode of production as the theme, in the process of opening to the outside, to do overall consideration between inside and outside, use foreign capital to optimize the industrial structure in our country, and strive to promote foreign investment in promoting our country's level of science and technology, promoting the industry transformation play a major role for the first time.China's "12th five-year" plans writes,"in the opening to the outside world to introduce foreign capital, to further enhance the level of the use of foreign capital and promote inside and outside, gradually optimize the industrial structure of our country development mode, and win the power of the remark in a higher level of international competition and cooperation in the future, get a industry leading position." It can be expected that, in the background that the service sector accounts for the proportion of the whole national economy increasingly improves, accounts for the vast majority of foreign direct investment's share of the SFDI is bound to play a major role for China's industrial structure upgrade. So this text set about from the service industry, and researching the impact that the SFDI to our country industrial structure's upgrade is of great significance.
This paper is divided into six chapters:
Chapter1is the introduction. This chapter is not only a general program but also a statement of this article for a deep understanding of the research intention, structure and content. Basically it includes the background and significance of topic selecting, the definition of key concepts, research contents, research methods, possible innovations and the deficiency of research.
Chapter2is about theoretical foundation and literature review. In this chapter, the author combs the applicability of the theory of SFDI, the upgrading of industrial structure theory, theory of the relationship between foreign direct investment and industrial structure upgrading, in addition summarizes the main achievements and defective of domestic and overseas researches related to the economic effect, welfare effect, technological progress effect and the effects of industrial structure effect of SFDI.
Chapter3is about the situation of SFDI. This chapter first analyzes the overall status and development trend of the global SFDI, then analyzes the overview of China's use of SFDI..
Chapter4is about analysis of present situation and industrial structure upgrade effect of SFDI, through the systematic analysis, this paper finds the outstanding problems existing in the current industrial structure. Firstly, the imbalance of industrial structure. Secondly, the imbalance of the industry internals. Thirdly, the unbalanced development of the regional industrial structure.Meanwhile,this chapter summaries the upgrade mechanism of SFDI on industrial structure includes the effect of technologe spillover and management demonstration,"hidden"effect,environment effectd as well as conduction effect.
Chapter5is the quantitative study including the economic linkage effect and the shock effect research of SFDI to the industrial structure adjustment in China. In this chapter, we apply the grey correlation analysis method using the added value of three industrial outputs as a reference index to analyze the economic linkage effects of SFDI on the three industrial output value structure transition..In the meanwhile,we use multi-index comprehensive analysis method to reveal the shock effect of SFDI to the respective output, employment, and total labor productivity of each industry Specifically, the empirical methods we use in this part include co-integration test, granger causality test and auto-regression model (VAR), the response function and variance decomposition methods.
Chapter6is about conclusion and suggestion. Through the empirical study of the former two chapters, we can derive the following conclusions:1. The SFDI made contributions to every industrial output growth unequally in China, and the first and third industry are superior to the second industry;2. The SFDI in our country promoted the optimization of employment structure;3. The SFDI promoted the increase of total factor productivity in China significantly;4.The short-term impact of FDI in service industry on the upgrading of industrial structure is more obvious compared with that of longer-term;5. The impact of SFDI on industrial structure transformation does not have reverse conduction in China. Accordingly,we put forward the following countermeasures and suggestions:1. Promote the marketization of service industry and explore the circulated transmission mechanism of SFDI;2. Transform and upgrade traditional service industry, actively explore the China model for service industry development;3.Reasonably guide SFDI to the services industry mating the second industry;4.1mprove the intellectual capital input and the infrastructure construction, enhance the long-term benefits of FDI;5.,Adjust measures to local conditions, and choose the SFDI based on the national industrial policy.
In this paper, the main innovation points embody in research perspective, research contents and research methods:
In the aspect of the research perspective, this paper combines with the actual development in China, the whole research category limits in the service sector, it has a certain pertinence. By reviewing the related literature, the author finds that the research of academic circles on the effects of traditional foreign direct investment mainly concentrated in the manufacturing field, but the attention of SFDI is relatively less. The development experience of developed countries shows that a mature economy, service industry is the highest in three industries and the most potential industry, and in terms of our country, since2011,in the total amount of the actual use of foreign investment, SFDI has accounted for more than manufacturing, therefore, the research object of this paper focuses on services,and researches the interaction relationship between SFDI and industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in China and its influence, it is a relatively new perspective.
In the aspect of the research content, this paper combines macroscopic analysis with microscopic argument, and highlights the microscopic characteristics of the study. In the previous related literature of relationship between SFDI and industry structure, the researchers focused on analyzing the growth of SFDI and macro economy, and the change of SFDI and industry structure, and other fields, they ignored the effects of SFDI on internal microstructure changes of each industry. Based on this, the research content of this paper plays down the macro analysis of SFDI, and puts more ink on the analysis of the effect of SFDI on the micro-level of the three times industrial structure. Therefore, after combining the micro and macro analysis, we can reflect industrial structure effect of SFDI of our country more stereoscopically.
In the aspect of the research methods, this paper focuses on interaction analysis, and highlights the adverse impact characteristics of the index. In the literature on the study of the relationship between FDI and industry structure, most scholars only analyzed the influence of FDI on industrial structure transfer, but neglected the analysis of the influence of industrial structure transfer for FDI, so this paper applies the method of grey correlation and vector auto-regression method, and analyzes the influence of the relevant variables change of industrial structure on the change of SFDI of our country. Based on this, this paper thoroughly discusses that in the course of using SFDI in our country, how to implement the situation that SFDI and industrial structure upgrade have an influence each other, mutually reinforcing, coevolution, and utility maximization.
2012年中国实际使用外资(FDI)金额1117.2亿美元,连续20年成为利用外资最多的发展中国家。正是由于长期坚持引进外资,我国逐步实现了农业大国向工业大国的转变。在很长一段时期,制造业FDI一直是我国外资引入领域的重点。2001年随着正式加入世贸组织,我国迈出了逐渐开放服务市场的步伐,服务业FDI也开始快速成长起来,成为我国FDI的重要组成部分,外商直接投资在服务领域的金额日益增多,由1997年的119亿美元左右,增长到2012年的572亿美元,15年时间里增长了近5倍。2011年我国服务业FDI比重占到了实际利用外资总额的50%以上,服务业FDI整体比重首次超过制造业。
与此同时,改革开放30多年来,中国的经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成就,实现了多年的两位数发展,人民生活有了较大改善,国内生产总值2013年达到了56.9万亿元,贸易进出口总额达到了4万亿美元,位居全球第一。但辉煌的总量并未掩盖经济结构的日益失衡,传统资源消耗的高能低产依旧未彻底改变,中国作为一个发展中的大国,工业化已经步入到中后期,但依旧有大量劳动力滞留于传统产业；大工业发展虽然总量上较为突出,但内部结构依旧较为单一,科技含量相对于西方发达国家也存在一定差距；在新兴服务业领域,由于起步较晚,伴随着劳动力成本日益上升、人口红利快速削减,矛盾也日益突出。只有实现国内产业结构的升级转变,只有彻底的调整经济发展方式,才能实现未来国家的可持续性增长。由于外资往往拥有较为先进的经验和技术,加上资本优势,FDI的流入为推动我国产业结构的升级转变提供了可能。
我国作为全球最重要的发展中国家,随着对外开放步伐的加快和国内经济的飞速发展,如何在国际产业转移浪潮中合理的利用外资,并实现我国产业结构的升级转变,是当前一个迫在眉睫的问题。事实上,国家也已经把这种认识上升到了战略层面。2011年由发改委和商务部联合下发的《外商投资产业指导目录(2011年修订)》首次提出了“要以完善和升级产业结构,加快转变生产方式为主题来合理引进相关外资,在对外开放过程中,要做到内外统筹兼顾,以外资来补充和优化我国各项产业结构,并着力推进外资在提升我国科技水平、促进产业转型方面发挥重大作用”；我国“十二五”规划要求,“在对外开放引进外资中,要进一步提升外资的利用水平,并以外促内,由表及里,逐步优化我国的产业结构发展方式,进而实现在未来的国际竞争和合作的更高层次上赢得话语权,获得行业主导地位”。因此可以预计,在服务业占整个国民经济比重日趋提高的背景下,占外商直接投资绝大多数份额的服务业FDI势必对中国产业结构升级产生重要影响。因此本文从服务业着手,研究服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级的作用机制具有一定的现实意义。
全文共分为6个章节,基本研究思路为：梳理相关理论并对国内外研究现状进行评述,进而提出本文研究的着眼点,接着分析中国利用服务业FDI发展概况及产业结构发展现状,在此基础上提出服务业FDI的产业结构升级效应,然后进行服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级影响的实证研究,其中包括服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级的经济关联效应和冲击效应两部分,最后本文依据研究结论,提出相应的对策建议。
第1章为导言。这一章既是本文的总纲,也是为深入理解本文研究的意图、架构和内容的一份说明。包括选题背景与意义、重要概念的界定、研究内容、研究方法、可能的创新点以及研究的不足。
第2章为理论基础和文献综述。在这一章中,笔者梳理了国际直接投资理论在服务业的适用性、产业结构升级理论、外商直接投资与产业结构升级之间关系的理论,对国内外有关服务业FDI的经济效应、福利效应、技术进步效应以及产业结构效应研究的主要成就和欠缺进行了总结。
第3章为服务业FDI的发展概况分析。本章首先分析了全球服务业FDI的总体发展概况,接着介绍了中国利用服务业FDI发展概况,通过系统性的分析发现：中国服务业FDI流入在波动中上升,服务业FDI内部行业分布不均衡,服务业利用FDI呈现出政策性阶段特征。
第4章为产业结构发展现状及服务业FDI的产业结构升级效应分析。通过对全球及我国产业结构现状分析,发现当前我国产业结构发展中存在的突出问题表现在,产业间结构不均衡,产业内部构成不均衡,区域产业结构发展不均衡。通过分析得出,服务业FDI的产业结构升级效应体现在服务业FDI的技术溢出与管理示范效应、“隐性”效应、环境效应、传导效应四个方面。
第5章为服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级影响的实证研究。主要分为两个部分：服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级的经济关联效应研究以及服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级的冲击效应研究。前一部分采用灰色关联度分析方法分析服务业FDI对我国经济总量以及三次产业产值结构间的关联效应。后一部分运用多指标综合分析方法,通过分析三次产业利用服务业FDI对各自增加值、就业以及全员劳动生产率的影响,揭示服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级的冲击影响。具体采用的实证方法为向量自回归模型(VAR模型)、格兰杰因果检验,以及脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法。
第6章为结论和建议。通过实证研究,本文主要得到以下结论：1.服务业FDI对我国三次产业产值的增长具有不均等的贡献,对第一产业和第三产业的贡献优于第二产业；2.服务业FDI对我国就业结构的优化具有促进作用；3.服务业FDI显著促进了我国全员劳动生产率的提升；4.服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级影响的短期效应较为明显；5.服务业FDI对我国产业结构升级的影响不具有逆向传导性。据此提出了对策建议：1.推动服务业市场化进程,探索服务业FDI循环传导机制；2.改造升级传统服务业,探索服务产业发展的中国模式；3.合理引导服务业FDI流向,着力打造第二产业配套服务业；4.加强智力资本投入和完善基础实施建设,增强FDI的长期效益；5.依据国家产业政策,因地制宜选择服务业FDI。
本文可能的创新体现在以下几点：
在研究视角上,本文结合当前我国发展实际,将整个研究范畴限定在服务业领域,具有一定的针对性。通过对相关文献的梳理,笔者发现学术界对于传统外商直接投资影响的研究,主要集中在制造业领域,而对于服务业FDI的关注相对较少。发达国家的发展经历表明,一个成熟的经济体,服务业是三次产业中占比最高、潜力也最大的产业,并且就我国而言,近两年实际利用外商投资总额中服务业FDI已经占据主导地位,因此,本文将研究对象聚焦于服务业,研究服务业FDI与我国产业结构调整升级之间相互作用关系及影响是一个比较新的视角。
在研究内容上,本文将宏观分析与微观论证相结合,并突出了研究的微观特征。以往研究服务业FDI与产业结构关系的相关文献,研究者多把重心放在分析服务业FDI与宏观经济增长以及服务业FDI与三次产业间结构变化等领域,忽视了服务业FDI对三次产业内部结构变迁影响的研究。基于此,本文在研究内容上,淡化了对服务业FDI的宏观分析,而把较多的笔墨用于分析服务业FDI对我国三次产业内部结构升级变迁的影响。因而,能够更立体的反映出我国服务业FDI的产业结构效应。
在研究方法上,本文注重交互分析,并突出了指标的逆向影响特征。在研究FDI与产业结构关系的文献中,多数学者仅仅分析了FDI对于产业结构变迁的影响,而忽视了分析产业结构变迁对于FDI的影响,因此本文在研究过程中,运用灰色关联法和向量自回归方法,重点分析了各期产业结构相关变量变动后,对我国服务业FDI的变动影响,并在此基础上深入探讨了在我国利用服务业FDI的过程中,如何在现有基础上实现服务业FDI与产业结构升级之间一种相互影响、互为促进、共同进化、效用最大化的局面。
Service industry is the industry growing fastest in the word in recent years, which is known as the "glue" in the development of industry and the market. As one of the important signs to measure if the regional economy is prosperous or not, service industry's development gets the world's attention gradually, especially after entering the21st century, on a global scale, with the rapid growth of foreign direct investment in service industry(refered to "SFDI"), the foreign direct investment with SFDI as the core,are gradually growing to the important force to adjust and upgrade the industrial structure and to promote regional economic prosperity for our country's and the world's economic system,and they are becoming more and more profound to change the world'development pattern for economy, industry and technology.
China's actual use of foreign capital amount is＄111.72billion in2012, and China has been the top of the utilization of foreign capital for20years in developing countries. Because of long-term adherence to the introduction of foreign capital, our country gradually realized the change from agricultural country to industrial powerhouse.For a long period, manufacturing FDI had been the focus in the field of foreign investment in our country. With entering into the World Trade Organization (WTO) formally in2001, our country opened the service market gradually, SFDI began to grow up quickly, and became an important part of the FDI in our country, the amount of SFDI was increasing gradually, from around＄11.9billion in the1997to＄57.2billion in2012, which grew almost5times in15years. In2011,our country's SFDI proportion accounted for more than50%of the total amount of the actual use of the foreign capital, the proportion of SFDI as a whole was more than in manufacturing for the first time.At the same time, with the reform and opening-up for more than30years, China's economic development had made remarkable achievements, achieving double-digit number development after many years, people's living standards improved greatly, the gross domestic product in2013reached56.9trillion, total import and export trade reached$4trillion, the world's first. But the amount of glory does not cover the growing imbalance of economic structure, traditional resource consumption of high energy and low yield is still not completely changed, as a developing country, China has entered into the middle of industrialization, but there is still a large population stranded from traditional agriculture in the country; Industrial development, while it's total is outstanding, but the internal structure is still relatively single, technological content relative to the western developed countries also has certain disparity; In the field of burgeoning service industry, due to a late start, as the rising labor costs and demographic dividend rapid decline at present, only to realize the upgrading and the change of domestic industrial structure, and only completely adjust the pattern of economic development, our country can achieve the future sustainable growth. Because foreign capital usually have advanced experience and technology, and capital advantage, FDI inflows make it possible to promote the upgrading of the industrial structure in our country. As one of the world's most important developing countries, in our country, as the quickening pace of opening to the outside world and the rapid development of domestic economy, how to make use of foreign capital, and achieve the upgrading and the change of industrial structure in the international industry shift wave in our country is currently a looming problem. In fact, our country also rose this thought to the policy level. In2011,《the foreign investment industrial guidance catalogue (2011revision)》 jointly issued by the national development and reform commission and the ministry of commerce put forward "to improve and upgrade the industrial structure, introduce relevant foreign capital reasonably by looking accelerate the transformation of the mode of production as the theme, in the process of opening to the outside, to do overall consideration between inside and outside, use foreign capital to optimize the industrial structure in our country, and strive to promote foreign investment in promoting our country's level of science and technology, promoting the industry transformation play a major role for the first time.China's "12th five-year" plans writes,"in the opening to the outside world to introduce foreign capital, to further enhance the level of the use of foreign capital and promote inside and outside, gradually optimize the industrial structure of our country development mode, and win the power of the remark in a higher level of international competition and cooperation in the future, get a industry leading position." It can be expected that, in the background that the service sector accounts for the proportion of the whole national economy increasingly improves, accounts for the vast majority of foreign direct investment's share of the SFDI is bound to play a major role for China's industrial structure upgrade. So this text set about from the service industry, and researching the impact that the SFDI to our country industrial structure's upgrade is of great significance.
This paper is divided into six chapters:
Chapter1is the introduction. This chapter is not only a general program but also a statement of this article for a deep understanding of the research intention, structure and content. Basically it includes the background and significance of topic selecting, the definition of key concepts, research contents, research methods, possible innovations and the deficiency of research.
Chapter2is about theoretical foundation and literature review. In this chapter, the author combs the applicability of the theory of SFDI, the upgrading of industrial structure theory, theory of the relationship between foreign direct investment and industrial structure upgrading, in addition summarizes the main achievements and defective of domestic and overseas researches related to the economic effect, welfare effect, technological progress effect and the effects of industrial structure effect of SFDI.
Chapter3is about the situation of SFDI. This chapter first analyzes the overall status and development trend of the global SFDI, then analyzes the overview of China's use of SFDI..
Chapter4is about analysis of present situation and industrial structure upgrade effect of SFDI, through the systematic analysis, this paper finds the outstanding problems existing in the current industrial structure. Firstly, the imbalance of industrial structure. Secondly, the imbalance of the industry internals. Thirdly, the unbalanced development of the regional industrial structure.Meanwhile,this chapter summaries the upgrade mechanism of SFDI on industrial structure includes the effect of technologe spillover and management demonstration,"hidden"effect,environment effectd as well as conduction effect.
Chapter5is the quantitative study including the economic linkage effect and the shock effect research of SFDI to the industrial structure adjustment in China. In this chapter, we apply the grey correlation analysis method using the added value of three industrial outputs as a reference index to analyze the economic linkage effects of SFDI on the three industrial output value structure transition..In the meanwhile,we use multi-index comprehensive analysis method to reveal the shock effect of SFDI to the respective output, employment, and total labor productivity of each industry Specifically, the empirical methods we use in this part include co-integration test, granger causality test and auto-regression model (VAR), the response function and variance decomposition methods.
Chapter6is about conclusion and suggestion. Through the empirical study of the former two chapters, we can derive the following conclusions:1. The SFDI made contributions to every industrial output growth unequally in China, and the first and third industry are superior to the second industry;2. The SFDI in our country promoted the optimization of employment structure;3. The SFDI promoted the increase of total factor productivity in China significantly;4.The short-term impact of FDI in service industry on the upgrading of industrial structure is more obvious compared with that of longer-term;5. The impact of SFDI on industrial structure transformation does not have reverse conduction in China. Accordingly,we put forward the following countermeasures and suggestions:1. Promote the marketization of service industry and explore the circulated transmission mechanism of SFDI;2. Transform and upgrade traditional service industry, actively explore the China model for service industry development;3.Reasonably guide SFDI to the services industry mating the second industry;4.1mprove the intellectual capital input and the infrastructure construction, enhance the long-term benefits of FDI;5.,Adjust measures to local conditions, and choose the SFDI based on the national industrial policy.
In this paper, the main innovation points embody in research perspective, research contents and research methods:
In the aspect of the research perspective, this paper combines with the actual development in China, the whole research category limits in the service sector, it has a certain pertinence. By reviewing the related literature, the author finds that the research of academic circles on the effects of traditional foreign direct investment mainly concentrated in the manufacturing field, but the attention of SFDI is relatively less. The development experience of developed countries shows that a mature economy, service industry is the highest in three industries and the most potential industry, and in terms of our country, since2011,in the total amount of the actual use of foreign investment, SFDI has accounted for more than manufacturing, therefore, the research object of this paper focuses on services,and researches the interaction relationship between SFDI and industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in China and its influence, it is a relatively new perspective.
In the aspect of the research content, this paper combines macroscopic analysis with microscopic argument, and highlights the microscopic characteristics of the study. In the previous related literature of relationship between SFDI and industry structure, the researchers focused on analyzing the growth of SFDI and macro economy, and the change of SFDI and industry structure, and other fields, they ignored the effects of SFDI on internal microstructure changes of each industry. Based on this, the research content of this paper plays down the macro analysis of SFDI, and puts more ink on the analysis of the effect of SFDI on the micro-level of the three times industrial structure. Therefore, after combining the micro and macro analysis, we can reflect industrial structure effect of SFDI of our country more stereoscopically.
In the aspect of the research methods, this paper focuses on interaction analysis, and highlights the adverse impact characteristics of the index. In the literature on the study of the relationship between FDI and industry structure, most scholars only analyzed the influence of FDI on industrial structure transfer, but neglected the analysis of the influence of industrial structure transfer for FDI, so this paper applies the method of grey correlation and vector auto-regression method, and analyzes the influence of the relevant variables change of industrial structure on the change of SFDI of our country. Based on this, this paper thoroughly discusses that in the course of using SFDI in our country, how to implement the situation that SFDI and industrial structure upgrade have an influence each other, mutually reinforcing, coevolution, and utility maximization.
引文
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13 1931年德国经济学家霍夫曼在其代表作《工业化的阶段和类型》一书中通过分析制造业中消费资料工业生产与资本资料工业生产的比例关系,得出了霍夫曼比例。
18 数据来源于2012年全球服务业外包发展报告。http://tradeinservices.mofcom.gov.cn/i/2011-10-28/93891.shtml。
20 如2002年以后,国家先后出台了《外商投资电信企业管理规定》、《外商投资商业领域管理办法》《外商投资电影院暂行规定》等一系列相关法律法规。
22 资料来源于通信世界网,http://www.cww.net.cn/news/html/2014/3/31/2014331728351501.htm
23 资料来源于中国新闻网,http://www.chinanews.com/cj/2011/10-20/3403550.shtml
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