企业IT外包风险评价模型与控制策略研究
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摘要
企业IT外包在过去十年中迅速发展,但蕴含着巨大的风险。相关研究取得了较多成果,但仍然存在风险分析不够深入清晰、风险评价不够科学合理以及风险控制策略不够完备有效等问题。本文针对上述问题,对企业IT外包风险理论研究的发展现状作出了评述,以变精度模糊粗糙集(Variable Precision Rough Set,简称VPFRS)为基础,结合交易成本理论和模糊群决策(Fuzzy Group Decision Making,简称FGDM)等方法,研究企业IT外包风险机制、评价方法和控制策略。
针对企业IT外包风险形成机理模糊、相互关系复杂等问题,深入分析了企业IT外包风险机制。基于交易成本理论,将风险机制分成风险源(风险因素的集合)到风险的传导机制,分析了资产专属性等风险因素和套牢等五种主要风险,并详细讨论了二者之间的作用原理和相互关系。为企业IT外包风险的分析、评价和控制提供了更好的依据,也为本文后续研究奠定了基础。
为解决企业IT外包风险评价中复杂性、不确定性和模糊性等问题,提出了基于FRS和FGDM的风险评价群决策模型,即FRGDM模型。模型利用FRS理论降低模糊决策表属性维并直接获取属性的权重,并以评价者给出的语义评价转化为三角模糊数,用模糊群决策方法评价和排序综合风险。模型结合了FGDM与FRS的优点,提高了评价的可靠性和效率,在核电公司外包项目评价选择中得到了验证。
为进一步提高企业IT外包风险评价的鲁棒性、可靠性,降低评价和决策风险,探讨了允许分类错误可变情况下的风险评价问题,提出了基于VPFRS和FGDM的风险评价群决策模型,即VPFRGDM模型。首先,对于给定的错误分类水平上限u,用模糊群决策中的模糊逼近于理想点方法评价和排序候选者的综合风险水平。然后,在整个允许错误分类水平区间上评价风险,实现决策优化。模型结合了两种理论的优点,进一步提高了评价的鲁棒性、可靠性和决策效率,并为决策者提供了选择精度水平做出正确决策的便利。
为解决企业IT外包风险控制策略中存在的机理不够清晰、针对性不强等问题,研究了风险控制策略组合。对现有研究成果做了全面的归纳和提炼,进一步分类为主要和辅助策略组合;探讨了策略组合对风险因素的作用机制,并说明了实施流程。该组合提高了控制策略的针对性和有效性。
针对企业IT外包风险的动态性、不确定性,解决风险监控中对知识的强调不够等问题,提出了基于VPFRS的风险监控集成螺旋模型。模型以基于VPFRS的知识发现方法为中心,依据积累的大量历史数据,按照两种方法,即给定u下和最佳允许分类错误区间下挖掘规则。由于方法具有较强的规则挖掘能力,容错能力、鲁棒性和计算效率进一步提高,提高了控制IT外包风险的效率和效果,提供的实例也证明了该模型的应用价值。
IT outsourcing of enterprise has been developing fast during last decade with great risk involved. It inherits natureally risks of IT and possesses unique risks, on which attracts many research interests and achievements. However, there still exists space for improvement in the analysis of risk mechanism, the approach of evaluation and the strategy of control. Aiming at the problems mentioned above, this paper, after reviewing on the research development on IT outsourcing risk of enterprise, studies risk mechanism, and provides group decision making model of evaluation and the strategy of control. The study, based on Variable Precision Fuzzy Rough Set(VPFRS), combining Transaction Cost Theory(TCT) and Fuzzy Group Decision-making(FGDM), provides a comprehensive and flexible methodology for study on IT outsourcing risk in enterprise.
Aiming at the complexity of forming mechanism and mutual relationship between IT outsourcing risk of enterprise, the thesis initializes to study risk mechanism. Based on TCT, the thesis proposes a two layer transferring mechanism of risk sources (the set of risk drivers) and risk, analyzes risk drivers such as Asset Specificity and five main risks such Lock-in, and discusses the principle of function and relationship between the two components above. The analysis offers more convenience and accuracy for the analysis, evaluation and control of risk, namely, a firm foundation for subsequential work.
In order to solve the complexity, uncertainty, amguity and subjective bias in IT outsourcing risk evaluation, a new integrated model is proposed to evaluate IT outsourcing risk of enterprise, which is called Fuzzy Rough Group Decision-Making (FRGDM). On the basis of recent work, the model decreases the dimension of condition feature and derives the weight of features directly from fuzzy decision table, then transforms the semantic evaluation given by evaluators into triangle fuzzy numbers, finally rates and ranks alternatives' aggregative risk with FGDM. The model integrates the advantage of FGDM and FRST, improves the reliability and efficiency, which is verified by the case of the choice of outsourcing projects in a nuclear power station.
For the purpose of further improving the robustness, reliability of the evaluation of IT outsourcing risk of enterprise, under variable admissible inclusion error is discussed and a new integrated model, Variable Precision Fuzzy Rough Group Decision-making (VPFRGDM) is proposed. First of all, under a given u, the model rates and ranks aggregative risk of alternatives with fuzzy Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution(TOPSIS) in FGDM. Finally, then evaluates the risk on the whole admissible inclusion error interval to optimize decision-making. The model enhances the reasonableness of FGDM, further improvs the robustness and reliability of the evaluation, and improves the efficiency with better flexibility and comprehensiveness to choose the best precision level in IT offshore outsourcing risk decision-making.
In order to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of countermeasures to alleviate IT outsourcing risk in enterprise, risk mitigation system is also studied. First of all, the thesis summarizes and refines literal developments in IT outsourcing risk of enterprise mitigation system, further categorizes the mitigation system into two subsystems, namely, main and complementary. Then, for the first time to our best knowledge, the thesis studies how the mitigation system functions on risk drivers instead of risks, and finally instructs the process of implementing the dynamic mitigation system. The system improves the pertinency and effectiveness, fit for providing a foundation for establishing the research methodology on the mitigation system for IT outsourcing risk of enterprise.
Appropriate for the complex and dynamic nature of IT outsourcing risk, aiming at the less emphasis on knowledge, an integrated spiral monitoring model based on VPFRS is proposed. The model take advantage of Knowledge Discovery in Database(KDD)method based on VPFRS, which digs rules from historical data accumulated through two approaches, namely, rules digging approach under given u and the best precision interval. Since the KDD method is capable of finding rules easily understood from historical data, better dealing with errors and robustness, the monitoring model could help decision-makers judge risk condition more accurately and efficiently during the IT outsourcing process. The value of the model is also verified by the case.
针对企业IT外包风险形成机理模糊、相互关系复杂等问题,深入分析了企业IT外包风险机制。基于交易成本理论,将风险机制分成风险源(风险因素的集合)到风险的传导机制,分析了资产专属性等风险因素和套牢等五种主要风险,并详细讨论了二者之间的作用原理和相互关系。为企业IT外包风险的分析、评价和控制提供了更好的依据,也为本文后续研究奠定了基础。
为解决企业IT外包风险评价中复杂性、不确定性和模糊性等问题,提出了基于FRS和FGDM的风险评价群决策模型,即FRGDM模型。模型利用FRS理论降低模糊决策表属性维并直接获取属性的权重,并以评价者给出的语义评价转化为三角模糊数,用模糊群决策方法评价和排序综合风险。模型结合了FGDM与FRS的优点,提高了评价的可靠性和效率,在核电公司外包项目评价选择中得到了验证。
为进一步提高企业IT外包风险评价的鲁棒性、可靠性,降低评价和决策风险,探讨了允许分类错误可变情况下的风险评价问题,提出了基于VPFRS和FGDM的风险评价群决策模型,即VPFRGDM模型。首先,对于给定的错误分类水平上限u,用模糊群决策中的模糊逼近于理想点方法评价和排序候选者的综合风险水平。然后,在整个允许错误分类水平区间上评价风险,实现决策优化。模型结合了两种理论的优点,进一步提高了评价的鲁棒性、可靠性和决策效率,并为决策者提供了选择精度水平做出正确决策的便利。
为解决企业IT外包风险控制策略中存在的机理不够清晰、针对性不强等问题,研究了风险控制策略组合。对现有研究成果做了全面的归纳和提炼,进一步分类为主要和辅助策略组合;探讨了策略组合对风险因素的作用机制,并说明了实施流程。该组合提高了控制策略的针对性和有效性。
针对企业IT外包风险的动态性、不确定性,解决风险监控中对知识的强调不够等问题,提出了基于VPFRS的风险监控集成螺旋模型。模型以基于VPFRS的知识发现方法为中心,依据积累的大量历史数据,按照两种方法,即给定u下和最佳允许分类错误区间下挖掘规则。由于方法具有较强的规则挖掘能力,容错能力、鲁棒性和计算效率进一步提高,提高了控制IT外包风险的效率和效果,提供的实例也证明了该模型的应用价值。
IT outsourcing of enterprise has been developing fast during last decade with great risk involved. It inherits natureally risks of IT and possesses unique risks, on which attracts many research interests and achievements. However, there still exists space for improvement in the analysis of risk mechanism, the approach of evaluation and the strategy of control. Aiming at the problems mentioned above, this paper, after reviewing on the research development on IT outsourcing risk of enterprise, studies risk mechanism, and provides group decision making model of evaluation and the strategy of control. The study, based on Variable Precision Fuzzy Rough Set(VPFRS), combining Transaction Cost Theory(TCT) and Fuzzy Group Decision-making(FGDM), provides a comprehensive and flexible methodology for study on IT outsourcing risk in enterprise.
Aiming at the complexity of forming mechanism and mutual relationship between IT outsourcing risk of enterprise, the thesis initializes to study risk mechanism. Based on TCT, the thesis proposes a two layer transferring mechanism of risk sources (the set of risk drivers) and risk, analyzes risk drivers such as Asset Specificity and five main risks such Lock-in, and discusses the principle of function and relationship between the two components above. The analysis offers more convenience and accuracy for the analysis, evaluation and control of risk, namely, a firm foundation for subsequential work.
In order to solve the complexity, uncertainty, amguity and subjective bias in IT outsourcing risk evaluation, a new integrated model is proposed to evaluate IT outsourcing risk of enterprise, which is called Fuzzy Rough Group Decision-Making (FRGDM). On the basis of recent work, the model decreases the dimension of condition feature and derives the weight of features directly from fuzzy decision table, then transforms the semantic evaluation given by evaluators into triangle fuzzy numbers, finally rates and ranks alternatives' aggregative risk with FGDM. The model integrates the advantage of FGDM and FRST, improves the reliability and efficiency, which is verified by the case of the choice of outsourcing projects in a nuclear power station.
For the purpose of further improving the robustness, reliability of the evaluation of IT outsourcing risk of enterprise, under variable admissible inclusion error is discussed and a new integrated model, Variable Precision Fuzzy Rough Group Decision-making (VPFRGDM) is proposed. First of all, under a given u, the model rates and ranks aggregative risk of alternatives with fuzzy Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution(TOPSIS) in FGDM. Finally, then evaluates the risk on the whole admissible inclusion error interval to optimize decision-making. The model enhances the reasonableness of FGDM, further improvs the robustness and reliability of the evaluation, and improves the efficiency with better flexibility and comprehensiveness to choose the best precision level in IT offshore outsourcing risk decision-making.
In order to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of countermeasures to alleviate IT outsourcing risk in enterprise, risk mitigation system is also studied. First of all, the thesis summarizes and refines literal developments in IT outsourcing risk of enterprise mitigation system, further categorizes the mitigation system into two subsystems, namely, main and complementary. Then, for the first time to our best knowledge, the thesis studies how the mitigation system functions on risk drivers instead of risks, and finally instructs the process of implementing the dynamic mitigation system. The system improves the pertinency and effectiveness, fit for providing a foundation for establishing the research methodology on the mitigation system for IT outsourcing risk of enterprise.
Appropriate for the complex and dynamic nature of IT outsourcing risk, aiming at the less emphasis on knowledge, an integrated spiral monitoring model based on VPFRS is proposed. The model take advantage of Knowledge Discovery in Database(KDD)method based on VPFRS, which digs rules from historical data accumulated through two approaches, namely, rules digging approach under given u and the best precision interval. Since the KDD method is capable of finding rules easily understood from historical data, better dealing with errors and robustness, the monitoring model could help decision-makers judge risk condition more accurately and efficiently during the IT outsourcing process. The value of the model is also verified by the case.
引文
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