突发灾害下应急交通保障决策支持系统关键技术研究
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摘要
在灾害面前,城市是脆弱的:城市是人口与经济活动高度聚集的地区,交通系统是城市防灾减灾的生命线,是物资运输的通道,又是灾害条件下人员疏散、派遣营救人员以及工程队伍、运送救灾物资的路线。突发灾害的发生除了直接造成交通基础严重破坏、人员伤亡、经济损失外,还会因为车辆停滞和道路中断给派遣营救人员、运送救灾物资以及工程队伍救灾抢险造成困难,从而引发更大的间接损失。
在科学面前,灾害是可以减轻的:在突发灾害条件下,道路交通的组织与指挥通常面临地域范围广、交通流量集中、时间紧迫、路网通行能力下降等困难,只有建立有力的指挥机构和科学的应急机制,并以安全、可靠的道路和实时的道路交通信息为基础,对路网交通流进行快速组织优化和动态诱导,才能充分发挥现有的道路效能,最大限度地保证疏散与救援交通的安全、可靠、畅通、快速。
本文主要对突发灾害下应急交通组织保障决策支持系统的关键技术展开研究,以期提高突发灾害下城市交通应急组织、控制、诱导的能力。重点研究基于有机计算的大范围应急交通信号协调控制技术、突发灾害下交通应急疏散和多模式交通诱导技术、突发灾害下交通控制与交通诱导的协同优化技术、突发灾害下应急交通保障决策支持系统集成技术,具有一定的现实意义和实用价值。
Unexpected public disaster events have occureed frequently all over the world in last decade. These disasters not only include natural disasters, disaster accidents, such as earthquake, flood, fire and so forth, but also new types of disaster such as epidemic spreading, terrorist attack, ecological disaster and so on. All of them are tending to take place increasingly. In the meanwhile, China is being high disaster event occurrence period and will remain for a long time in the future, which brought out a stringent challenge to government and relevant authority.
City is the center of the human’s politics, economy, society, culture and human’s habitat. In the meanwhile, it is the pivotal hub of“lifeline system”which vital to national wellbeing and the people’s livelihood, like as water, electricity, gas, communicational and transportation. With the fast economic development and acceleration of urbanization, city scale is extended rapidly. And the population, property, manufacturing, buildings and other infrastructures are becoming more and more higly centralize. Once unexpected disaster has occurred, the loss, extension, influence will be incalculable, vast and profound.
The nature and characteristics of city state the importance and urgency of urban distaster emergency management. Establishing and perfecting emergency command system which supports and first respondes to build, sustain, and improve the capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards, is the most pressing task being faced by all nation across the globe, as well as minimize potential affection of disaster to urban sustainable development and people’s actual production and daily life. They are not only testing the emergency management ability of government, as well as emergency guarantee capability of urban road transport system.
Emergency traffic guarantee is the premise condition and important part of emergency rescue, such as dispatching emergency materials, delivering rescuers and so forth. And a fast and effective emergency traffic guarantee system can lessen the loss of life and peoperty significantly and minimize other disaster loss as much as possible.
However, although road transport is the broadest possible form of guarantee in emergency management, it is often being the the weak link of emergency evacuation and rescue as a result of its vulnerability in disaster. So only by developing a powerful disaster emergency response administration and scientific response mechanism, supported with rapidly optimal and collaboration operational traffic organization methods based on reliable road transport and realtime traffic information, road transport can achieve its maximize effectiveness and make emergency evacuation or rescue safely, reliably, smoothly and quickly.
Supported by National High-Tech Research and Development Program (863 Program), this thesis is aimed mainly at key technologies of decision support system for emergency traffic guarantee in disaster. Specifically, it lays emphasis on the research of reliability estimation and situation analysis of urban traffic network, large-scale traffic signal coordinated control based on organic computing, emergency evacuation transport and multimodal traffic flow guidance, synergetic optimization of traffic signal control and traffic flow guidance, and integrated technology of decision support system for emergency traffic guarantee in disaster. To research these technologies, the thesis consists of seven chapters. The first chapter introduces the research background, statement of problem, purose, significance, literature review, research methods and writing ideas of thesis. Chapter Two to Chapter Six are the core content of this thesis, discuss and research urban traffic network reliability, traffic signal control, emergency evacuation and multimodal traffic flow guidance, synergetic optimization, integrated technology of decision support system for emergency traffic guarantee in disaster. Chapter Seven summarizes the research work, points out the insufficience, and gives the future works of this research. The main work and achievements of this theis are as follow:
1) Firstly, discusses the problem existing in and confront emergency traffic guarantee. Then systhesis and analysis of emergency traffic guarantee’s current actuality and developing trend are introduced. Thirdly illustrates the objective and the significance of the research. Finally, research methods and its technical schemes is put forward by analyzing the current development of decision support system for emergency traffic guarantee and its relevant techniques.
2) Aiming at the drawbacks in traffic signal control system, develops the framework of large-scale traffic signal coordinated control system based on organic computing by analysing coordination and control requirement in disaster. Within the system framework, emergency trunk road coordinated control technology, Inter-regional traffic signal coordinated control technology, and intra-regional boundaries traffic signal coordinated control technology are propsed respectively to be direct against different coordination and control requirement in disaster.
3) By analyzing the demand, performace, organizational characteristics of traffic flow, a bi-level programming emergemy evacuation model is present in order to meet the requirements and needs for urgency and timeliness of traffic evacuation, and gives the solving procedure with momentum-weight practicle swarm optimization algorithm. Considering the information service demands in emergency evacuation and route guidance, a multimodal dyamical traffic flow guidance technology based on K-shorest path by modifying the traditional shorest path algorithm of multimodal transport network. Finally, points out the traffic information service manners and methods for emergency evacuation and route guidance.
4) Analysis operational necessity and feasibility of traffic signal control and traffic flow guidance’s synergism and its hierarchy, characteristic, and pattern. Then this thesis puts forward a synergic optimization model of traffic signal control and VMS in disaster. Finally, a sloving algorithm for the bi-level programming integrated synergic optimization model is present.
5) Presents information demands to delevlop a dicision support system for emergency traffic evacuation in disaster by analyzing user principal service requirements and service prodivers’functional requirements. By evaluating and comparing different architecture and structure of decision support system, logical and physical framework of dicision support system for emergency traffic guarantee is proposed. Finally, makes out software development method and processing of decision support system for emergency traffic guarantee by illustrating system develop impact factors and pros and cons of different development methodology, and develops the software system with Borland Delphi 7.
Informationzation, modernization, and intelligentize for emergency command system can be set out to do hardware construction and software development respectively. With the rapid development of science technical, hardware construction is not a difficult problem anymore. In comparison, the importance and development difficulty of software are more than hardware. What is more, decision support system for emergency traffic guarantee is the top priority. Therefore, making active researching and developing relative theory and technology of decision support system for emergency traffic guarantee in disaster, is one significant research topic which has profound realistic significance and high practical value, facing traffic engineer and researcher.
在科学面前,灾害是可以减轻的:在突发灾害条件下,道路交通的组织与指挥通常面临地域范围广、交通流量集中、时间紧迫、路网通行能力下降等困难,只有建立有力的指挥机构和科学的应急机制,并以安全、可靠的道路和实时的道路交通信息为基础,对路网交通流进行快速组织优化和动态诱导,才能充分发挥现有的道路效能,最大限度地保证疏散与救援交通的安全、可靠、畅通、快速。
本文主要对突发灾害下应急交通组织保障决策支持系统的关键技术展开研究,以期提高突发灾害下城市交通应急组织、控制、诱导的能力。重点研究基于有机计算的大范围应急交通信号协调控制技术、突发灾害下交通应急疏散和多模式交通诱导技术、突发灾害下交通控制与交通诱导的协同优化技术、突发灾害下应急交通保障决策支持系统集成技术,具有一定的现实意义和实用价值。
Unexpected public disaster events have occureed frequently all over the world in last decade. These disasters not only include natural disasters, disaster accidents, such as earthquake, flood, fire and so forth, but also new types of disaster such as epidemic spreading, terrorist attack, ecological disaster and so on. All of them are tending to take place increasingly. In the meanwhile, China is being high disaster event occurrence period and will remain for a long time in the future, which brought out a stringent challenge to government and relevant authority.
City is the center of the human’s politics, economy, society, culture and human’s habitat. In the meanwhile, it is the pivotal hub of“lifeline system”which vital to national wellbeing and the people’s livelihood, like as water, electricity, gas, communicational and transportation. With the fast economic development and acceleration of urbanization, city scale is extended rapidly. And the population, property, manufacturing, buildings and other infrastructures are becoming more and more higly centralize. Once unexpected disaster has occurred, the loss, extension, influence will be incalculable, vast and profound.
The nature and characteristics of city state the importance and urgency of urban distaster emergency management. Establishing and perfecting emergency command system which supports and first respondes to build, sustain, and improve the capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards, is the most pressing task being faced by all nation across the globe, as well as minimize potential affection of disaster to urban sustainable development and people’s actual production and daily life. They are not only testing the emergency management ability of government, as well as emergency guarantee capability of urban road transport system.
Emergency traffic guarantee is the premise condition and important part of emergency rescue, such as dispatching emergency materials, delivering rescuers and so forth. And a fast and effective emergency traffic guarantee system can lessen the loss of life and peoperty significantly and minimize other disaster loss as much as possible.
However, although road transport is the broadest possible form of guarantee in emergency management, it is often being the the weak link of emergency evacuation and rescue as a result of its vulnerability in disaster. So only by developing a powerful disaster emergency response administration and scientific response mechanism, supported with rapidly optimal and collaboration operational traffic organization methods based on reliable road transport and realtime traffic information, road transport can achieve its maximize effectiveness and make emergency evacuation or rescue safely, reliably, smoothly and quickly.
Supported by National High-Tech Research and Development Program (863 Program), this thesis is aimed mainly at key technologies of decision support system for emergency traffic guarantee in disaster. Specifically, it lays emphasis on the research of reliability estimation and situation analysis of urban traffic network, large-scale traffic signal coordinated control based on organic computing, emergency evacuation transport and multimodal traffic flow guidance, synergetic optimization of traffic signal control and traffic flow guidance, and integrated technology of decision support system for emergency traffic guarantee in disaster. To research these technologies, the thesis consists of seven chapters. The first chapter introduces the research background, statement of problem, purose, significance, literature review, research methods and writing ideas of thesis. Chapter Two to Chapter Six are the core content of this thesis, discuss and research urban traffic network reliability, traffic signal control, emergency evacuation and multimodal traffic flow guidance, synergetic optimization, integrated technology of decision support system for emergency traffic guarantee in disaster. Chapter Seven summarizes the research work, points out the insufficience, and gives the future works of this research. The main work and achievements of this theis are as follow:
1) Firstly, discusses the problem existing in and confront emergency traffic guarantee. Then systhesis and analysis of emergency traffic guarantee’s current actuality and developing trend are introduced. Thirdly illustrates the objective and the significance of the research. Finally, research methods and its technical schemes is put forward by analyzing the current development of decision support system for emergency traffic guarantee and its relevant techniques.
2) Aiming at the drawbacks in traffic signal control system, develops the framework of large-scale traffic signal coordinated control system based on organic computing by analysing coordination and control requirement in disaster. Within the system framework, emergency trunk road coordinated control technology, Inter-regional traffic signal coordinated control technology, and intra-regional boundaries traffic signal coordinated control technology are propsed respectively to be direct against different coordination and control requirement in disaster.
3) By analyzing the demand, performace, organizational characteristics of traffic flow, a bi-level programming emergemy evacuation model is present in order to meet the requirements and needs for urgency and timeliness of traffic evacuation, and gives the solving procedure with momentum-weight practicle swarm optimization algorithm. Considering the information service demands in emergency evacuation and route guidance, a multimodal dyamical traffic flow guidance technology based on K-shorest path by modifying the traditional shorest path algorithm of multimodal transport network. Finally, points out the traffic information service manners and methods for emergency evacuation and route guidance.
4) Analysis operational necessity and feasibility of traffic signal control and traffic flow guidance’s synergism and its hierarchy, characteristic, and pattern. Then this thesis puts forward a synergic optimization model of traffic signal control and VMS in disaster. Finally, a sloving algorithm for the bi-level programming integrated synergic optimization model is present.
5) Presents information demands to delevlop a dicision support system for emergency traffic evacuation in disaster by analyzing user principal service requirements and service prodivers’functional requirements. By evaluating and comparing different architecture and structure of decision support system, logical and physical framework of dicision support system for emergency traffic guarantee is proposed. Finally, makes out software development method and processing of decision support system for emergency traffic guarantee by illustrating system develop impact factors and pros and cons of different development methodology, and develops the software system with Borland Delphi 7.
Informationzation, modernization, and intelligentize for emergency command system can be set out to do hardware construction and software development respectively. With the rapid development of science technical, hardware construction is not a difficult problem anymore. In comparison, the importance and development difficulty of software are more than hardware. What is more, decision support system for emergency traffic guarantee is the top priority. Therefore, making active researching and developing relative theory and technology of decision support system for emergency traffic guarantee in disaster, is one significant research topic which has profound realistic significance and high practical value, facing traffic engineer and researcher.
引文
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